Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 49: College Football Betting Preview NATTY Time

Transcript

Episode 49: College Football Betting Preview NATTY Time · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

• 0:00
  Ladies and gentlemen. Boys and girls, it's your favorite time of week.
• 0:03
  You download the Crazy Shot, you get you something to drink, you snuggle
• 0:06
  in, and you get ready to talk to some college football. I'm Mark
• 0:08
  and I'm here in the college football podcasting studios. Scott is at home,
• 0:11
  and we are broadcasting to you on the morning of the Natty Brother How the
• 0:16
  hell are you man? Excited? Excited about today? It's gonna be a
• 0:21
  lot of fun, great way to break down the season. I think the
• 0:25
  I think the the environment for tonight is going to be outstanding. Uh.
• 0:33
  It looks like there is a ton of Washington people. Uh in New Orleans.
• 0:38
  You know, there's gonna be a bunch of Michigan fans. How big
• 0:42
  school is and how long term of a program it is. So I think
• 0:45
  the environment tonight is going to be outstanding. I'm excited about it. Uh.
• 0:51
  You know, Look, everybody talks about Pasadena and it's and it's the
• 0:55
  lore and the the legend of the Rose Bowl and the tradition, and that's
• 1:00
  great. The night's gonna be a significantly better environment. Yeah, I have
• 1:03
  zeroed out in my mind eight because ninety percent of the people in that stadium
• 1:07
  were gonna be twice as zoosed up on alcohol as they were, and some
• 1:12
  of that's a whole different story too. Yeah, it is hopping in Houston.
• 1:15
  I was downtown checked it out and there's a lot of crowd going.
• 1:19
  Everybody's packed in a RADI to roll coming back in from Dallas yesterday. He
• 1:23
  saw a lot of cars Michigan and Washington driving down. I'm stoked, man.
• 1:27
  I think we got the two best teams that we could have to play.
• 1:30
  After watching both those semifinal games, I thought Alabama got out physical.
• 1:36
  I thought they got out coached. Milroe was exposed. The offensive line was
• 1:41
  really what got exposed, in my opinion, and that was an offensive line
• 1:45
  for Bama that had had its issues and I thought they had short things up
• 1:48
  when they got in the Georgia game and they hadn't. And Michigan proved that
• 1:52
  if you can put pressure on Milrow, he would struggle. On the flip
• 1:56
  side, with the Washington game, Washington's the team that we thought they would
• 1:59
  be. That game came out exactly the way that we thought that would roll
• 2:02
  out. It came out hot, it came out fast. Both Sark and
• 2:07
  Debora were ready to roll. Pinnis man dropping dimes on those guys. Dimes,
• 2:13
  I mean, and we thought the Texas secondary would be the spot that
• 2:17
  you could expose them. We talked about the trench being a big deal,
• 2:22
  and if you watch the game, it came down to the fact that the
• 2:24
  Washington offensive line was able to hold off that defensive line, give Pinnick some
• 2:29
  time, and then he literally was just dropping it in a basket. And
• 2:32
  I think people take for granted the fact that there's three NFL wide receivers on
• 2:36
  this Washington team and they're explosive, and so tonight's game is gonna be fantastic.
• 2:42
  I'm excited over unders at fifty six. Line's been floating around Michigan minus
• 2:47
  four and a half minus five, so you can look for some opportunities there
• 2:52
  in the money line has been moving between one's seventy and I am excited tonight.
• 2:58
  What are you looking for in this game tonight? You know I'm the
• 3:00
  thing I'm interested the most in is ken Washington stopped the run. I've talked
• 3:05
  about this on them several times this year. Is Michigan be going to get
• 3:09
  up there and be able to play bulletball and just push them around. They
• 3:14
  had been exposed and sometimes when when teams gave them fits. And I'll go
• 3:21
  to Arizona State. Now, look, Washington was banged up so and that
• 3:25
  is not nearly the case tonight, but they almost lost that game because they
• 3:29
  couldn't stop Arizona State running football. This will hell of a lot better running
• 3:32
  team than Arizona State teams ran the fall Onton times year. That is my
• 3:39
  concern, you know, that is the bottom I think where people are discounting
• 3:47
  Washington is I think they're gonna be able to expose Michigan because I do think
• 3:52
  this offensive line, unless they blitz, is going to be able to give
• 3:54
  Pennis time to throw the football. And he gets rid of the football fast.
• 3:59
  He's not standing back there like a statue. I meaning he's got a
• 4:01
  quick release. I mean he gets rid of the football. He does a
• 4:04
  nice job moving within the pocket. You mentioned one time nobody moving and using
• 4:10
  his skills to stay in the pocket and get rid of football. I think
• 4:13
  you can't say it better than that. He does a great job. What
• 4:16
  does Michigan do on the blitz because Pennix has done a look, he's experienced,
• 4:21
  and he's played a lot of football and he doesn't get rattled, and
• 4:25
  I think he'll be able to get rid of the football. I think the
• 4:28
  bowler is going to do a much better job of hitting your hot, of
• 4:31
  hitting the hot routes when they send a guy, he's going to have outlet
• 4:34
  guys, and I expect Penix to do it. And look, Pennis can
• 4:38
  run the football too. He doesn't do it a lot because of those injuries
• 4:41
  earlier in his career, trying to stay healthy, but when he does,
• 4:44
  he's capable of doing it. The kid's an athletic kid. So I think
• 4:47
  tonight it's going to be a fascinating game. Two best offenses Michigan played all
• 4:50
  year gave up twenty four points to both of them as the most points they
• 4:54
  gave up gave to Maryland and Ohio State. Ohio was State was on the
• 4:58
  road interested to see how tonight works. I think Washington's gonna get to thirty,
• 5:03
  so I think that's my mind. I think they score at least four
• 5:08
  touchdowns tonight. Can Michigan score more? I think that tells you what I
• 5:13
  think about the over thinking in that, because I think Washington is good enough
• 5:19
  on the off the line with those wide receivers. Look, I know Michigan's
• 5:25
  got a couple of good cover gaps. They get every contested ball. It's
• 5:29
  amazing to me. I mean, they go catch the football. I mean,
• 5:32
  look, I know he's dropping dimes sometimes, but damn they're making really
• 5:38
  tough catches too. I mean, I don't want to discount these wide receivers
• 5:41
  at all. And I think I think McMillan being back is a big deal
• 5:44
  for them. I think I think it opens up all kinds of things,
• 5:47
  and he's the guy I expect that have a huge game. Yeah, best
• 5:51
  I can tell the run the tight end. I will tell you a tight
• 5:55
  end game two. I think that's the other spot where I think Washington may
• 5:59
  make some hay because again I think they're gonna have some pressure that's gonna put
• 6:02
  tight end because they got capable players at the tight end spots. Those are
• 6:06
  two spots that I'm interested to see. I think they could have big games
• 6:11
  tonight. Yeah, I would agree with you. Well, I'm not gonna
• 6:15
  be shy about it. I'm playing Washington here. I'm playing Washington. I'm
• 6:18
  gonna try to get the five. I'm gonna hold around. I've seen it
• 6:20
  a couple of times. I've already got the money line at plus one eighty
• 6:25
  that I popped on it when I saw that pop at five and a half
• 6:28
  the other day. And I like the over too. I like the team
• 6:31
  total over of Washington over twenty six points. I do think they're gonna get
• 6:36
  four touchdowns. And what you're talking about right there, I agree with you
• 6:40
  in a sense that the look for the tight ends at Michigan to play a
• 6:45
  bigger role today. You actually can get a prop on Westover tight end the
• 6:49
  seat Richard Senior that kind of rolls in. They play two of them.
• 6:51
  They played Devin Cup, they play west Over. But I've saw a prop
• 6:55
  with Westover over twenty seven and a half yards and I think that could be
• 6:59
  a good bet because I could definitely see you he could get chunked out on
• 7:01
  one play. Uh yep. Because where I think you're gonna have problems on
• 7:05
  both sides of the balls. Michigan, if they can control the lone of
• 7:09
  scrimmage, can really play bully ball in this team. Now, I don't
• 7:13
  know that Michigan can blow the top off of Washington's defense, and so I
• 7:15
  don't know if We're gonna have to sit and watch some seven eight minute drives
• 7:19
  that Michigan's gonna put together, and then Washington can't get it rolling. But
• 7:25
  you know, Corum doesn't have the explosiveness that he had pre injury, but
• 7:30
  yet he's still fantastic and and so I do think Michigan's gonna get it done.
• 7:34
  I think they're gonna be able to put some points on the board.
• 7:38
  But this, but this Washington team, I just think it has been so
• 7:41
  overlooked all season long, and you go look at their schedule and you compare
• 7:45
  trying to compare apples to apples, and realistically, I talked, I caught
• 7:47
  some shade on Twitter on this, but the Big Ten to me was down.
• 7:51
  There wasn't that many good teams this year in the Big Ten as a
• 7:54
  whole. It was yeah, yeah, but Ohio State Michigan were Ohio State.
• 7:58
  Michigan State was every bit as flawed as they looked against Ohio State Michigan.
• 8:05
  And I understand they had some players out, and yes, the cornerbacks
• 8:09
  made a huge deal against Ole Miss, but I think they lose that game
• 8:13
  either way, I'll be honest, because they simply were a one dimensional football
• 8:18
  team. They have to be able to run the football to win. So
• 8:20
  yes, the league was as a whole not very good. Hey, don't
• 8:26
  get offended. Big ten people think the SEC was very good either. Well,
• 8:30
  and that's where my lead into my next point was the PAC twelve,
• 8:33
  in my opinion, was the best time to bottom. Yeah, yeah,
• 8:37
  I agree with you. I mean you look at even the teams in the
• 8:39
  bottom of that conference cal Stanford, Yeah, the bottom of the pack.
• 8:45
  Twelve wasn't great this year, but it was better in the middle of that
• 8:48
  conference. In the top of that conference was by far the best conference in
• 8:50
  the country. And we saw what Washington was able to do. And the
• 8:54
  other thing I like about this Washington team is two things. And both of
• 8:58
  these teams have showed moxie throughout the season. You've got Michigan that's had to
• 9:01
  play with the suspended coach for six games. Uh, you had to do
• 9:05
  the Michigan against the world type thing. I get that, and it's galvanized
• 9:07
  that team and made them better. They had some big games that they stepped
• 9:11
  up into the Ohio State game to win. That one was a big one.
• 9:15
  That first game when they went on the road and they had to pull
• 9:16
  that one off was a big one. And so but then the Michigan team
• 9:20
  on the other side, I love the fact that they won the Joe More
• 9:22
  Award, which to me shows a shit ton of teamwork to win the offensive
• 9:26
  line. Yeah, excuse me, Washington, winn and the Joe More Awards
• 9:30
  a big deal. And then the other thing too with this Washington team.
• 9:33
  Go back and look, man, they have literally won more games that have
• 9:37
  been decided within one score than any team in the country. And so they've
• 9:41
  been right there. And that means they're not getting rattled, they're not getting
• 9:45
  nervous when they're down a little bit or in. They're right there. They're
• 9:48
  they're comfortable in that spot. I think they trust each other. I think
• 9:52
  they trust Pinnis. I think Debor has done one heck of a good job
• 9:56
  building an offense that if it does the best he can do with with talent
• 10:00
  Pennix has, and then also with that receiving core that's there, he knows
• 10:03
  exactly what he has. He plays to his strength and he's gonna I think
• 10:07
  he's gonna make Michigan uncomfortable at times tonight, I really really do. Well,
• 10:13
  you bring up a point that I was gonna bring up. So let's
• 10:16
  count this up. They beat Texas by six, this is under touchdown games.
• 10:20
  They beat Oregon by three. They beat Washington State by three, They
• 10:24
  beat Oregon State by two, they beat uh you talk by seven, they
• 10:31
  beat they beat Arizona State by eight, but that was still a really close
• 10:37
  game. Oregon three the first time, Arizona seven. So I mean,
• 10:41
  yeah, you're talking seven games. Yeah that they won by st less and
• 10:48
  an eighth they won by eight, So yes, they're used to playing good
• 10:52
  the thing and I said this last week, and I mean it, look
• 10:56
  how many good quarterbacks they played at the NFL Draft. Is going to bear
• 11:01
  out that they played probably three of the four or they played some of the
• 11:09
  best court two for sure of the best three quarterbacks in the country, not
• 11:11
  including Pennix obviously because he's on their team so they can't play him. But
• 11:18
  I would tell you that ungle in that system in Oregon State was significantly better.
• 11:22
  I would tell you Washington State had one of the best college quarterbacks hitting
• 11:28
  the field. They played some really good players and that and that Arizona team
• 11:33
  was much better when they made the quarterback switch. So which is what which
• 11:37
  is what? That was the first game that he played the full game was
• 11:41
  against Washington. So I think that is the difference. I think that's the
• 11:48
  difference for these guys. I think they are better defensively then people get them
• 11:52
  credit for because they just they don't look impressive. They don't. They don't,
• 12:00
  they don't just oh and I you with five stars. And because a
• 12:03
  lot of this translates to people think this guy is supposed to be good,
• 12:09
  so they assume he's good, and guys like guys like Tye step up for
• 12:13
  them on the defensive line, they don't. They don't get credit that guy's
• 12:20
  a player, and watch that guy get drafted high because that guy makes plays,
• 12:24
  he can get to the quarterback. So I think it's you know,
• 12:26
  I think there's some better players on this team than people realize. They are
• 12:31
  very prepared. At the end of the day, this team feels I know
• 12:37
  this is a cliche, it feels like a team of destiny. I mean
• 12:41
  it really does. It feels like it is their year. I mean,
• 12:43
  it just feels like they keep winning, getting it done, you know.
• 12:48
  And now a lot of people you could say pretty much the same thing about
• 12:52
  Michigan that's what makes this game fascinating to me tonight. I'm with you on
• 12:54
  the betting perspective. I like I like Washington. I'm a ride with the
• 12:58
  one that brung me. And I like the over under because I think they're
• 13:03
  at least gonna be able to score. I think they get like you said,
• 13:05
  four touchdowns. Like I said earlier, I think they're gonna get to
• 13:07
  twenty eight thirty points. So I think this game goes over. If Ellio
• 13:13
  State can score twenty four, they can score twenty eight. That's my mind.
• 13:16
  So I think they go probably go over their team total as well.
• 13:20
  So I don't have a problem with any of those three best, but I'm
• 13:22
  definitely taking Washington and and the over in the ball game. Yeah, I'm
• 13:26
  gonna like I said, I'm gonna I've gotten alert sets up, my guy
• 13:30
  goes off and gets to five again, I'm gonna hit it again. I'm
• 13:33
  probably set on the money line. I've got a futures ticket. And then
• 13:37
  my other favorite bet is the Washington team total over twenty six. I think,
• 13:41
  like I said, you're under four touchdowns. I think we're gonna get
• 13:45
  there tonight. I really do. So I'm excited about this game as far
• 13:48
  as the National Championships concerned. I feel like this is as good a setup
• 13:52
  as we've had, maybe since the Alabama Georgia game when we got to meet
• 13:56
  Tua, when he came in the second half of that one to you know,
• 14:01
  lead them to the national championship, and it just maybe just started the
• 14:05
  Georgia the Georgia dynasty start a little bit shorter than that. So I'm excited
• 14:11
  for this game, man. I think it's gonna be from telling you for
• 14:13
  great I'm gonna give you a great stat to tell you what's on. To
• 14:16
  find out early before the game ever kicks off. If Michigan wins the toss,
• 14:22
  Jim Harball has deferred every time in the length of time that Michael Pennix
• 14:28
  has been a college football player. He has deferred every kickoff to the second
• 14:33
  half except one time when he played at Indiana against Michael Pennix. They lost
• 14:39
  that ball game. Pennicks do for three hundred and fifty yards in that game.
• 14:43
  They win the toss tonight and they take it. It tells you that
• 14:48
  Harball thinks they need to get out front. They need to get out front.
• 14:52
  They can't let Washington get momentum. It tells you a lot about his
• 14:58
  mindset. In my mind, I think that is a fascinating rate. I
• 15:01
  hope they win the toss so that we get a chance to find out really
• 15:05
  what's on his mind. So be interesting to see what Washington does too.
• 15:09
  Did they defer or do they want to get out front and not let Michigan
• 15:13
  play bullyball. So it'll be interesting to see that opening coin toss. I
• 15:18
  think tonight's gonna be a great game. I honestly think these are. I
• 15:22
  think these are probably the two best teams in the country. I really do.
• 15:24
  It takes a lot to go undefeated, you know, which is one
• 15:28
  of the knocks that everybody has against against Florida State. Florida State without the
• 15:33
  quarterback, it's not one of the best four teams in the country. That's
• 15:35
  not debatable. Now, do I think Georgia was better than Alabama? I'm
• 15:39
  sure I do. Still don't know, We won't know, but I think
• 15:43
  these two teams are damn sure earn the right to be here. I think
• 15:46
  it's gonna be fabulous to watch, And this is why we play the games.
• 15:52
  You know, Georgie is at home because they lost, they had a
• 15:54
  chance to go undefeated, just like these guys did too. So I'm excited
• 15:56
  to watch these guys. Uh, this is gonna be really really fun game.
• 16:00
  Great way to end the season. Somebody who's going fifteen to oh,
• 16:04
  that's pretty impressive. No matter who it is, that's an awesome season.
• 16:10
  So it should be great and I'll be I'm still fascinating to see if far
• 16:14
  boys off to the NFL. NFL jobs opening and some pretty good NFL jobs,
• 16:19
  honestly, so got to be enticing for a guy like Harball to get
• 16:23
  back southern California and get a young quarterback like Herbert, so you see see
• 16:30
  what goes on. So I think it's gonna be fascinating to see if he
• 16:33
  is back at Michigan and do they just hire do they just hire more as
• 16:37
  their as their head coach? So at a lot of fascinating stuff after this
• 16:42
  game's over too. But boy, the sixty minutes they're playing, I think
• 16:45
  it's gonna be a lot of fun tonight. There is no way he comes
• 16:48
  back to Michigan next year. I mean we've been talking about this all season.
• 16:52
  It's like, hey, suspend me again, f you we're gonna win
• 16:56
  the Natty and I'm getting the hell out of here, Loud, I think
• 16:59
  you may be right. And the athletic director who or Manual, was a
• 17:04
  football player in the mid eighties. I think he and Harball may have been
• 17:07
  on the same team. I have not looked that up, but I think
• 17:11
  have to be close, just based on age, they have to be had
• 17:15
  to be pretty close to one another. So you hear him in the interviews.
• 17:21
  I've been working on this for months. I meaning Harball has gotten no
• 17:25
  interest in signing that contract. I think he's gone. But that's a whole
• 17:29
  that's a that's a story for the next podcast. But I mean, here's
• 17:33
  my next quest. Who do you hire if you're in Michigan, Because it's
• 17:36
  like, I mean, do you hire More? I'm telling you, do
• 17:38
  you hire Semore? Does he get the job after the job he did?
• 17:41
  He's certainly an up and coming coach. Let me tell you, if they
• 17:44
  don't hire him, he's a head coach next year. I don't disagree with
• 17:48
  you, but I mean, this is a Michigan and we've forgotten that,
• 17:51
  Like this was a Michigan team that pre Harbaugh really struggled. I mean really
• 17:56
  struggled, they had identity problems, and he's Mark. You look at him,
• 18:00
  but he's won, he's lost, like it's twenty three or twenty four
• 18:04
  games in his time there. He's averaging basically a nine and four football coach.
• 18:10
  Yeah, now they've been great the last two years, the last three
• 18:12
  years really, so it shocks everybody, you know that, Like, I
• 18:18
  don't think people realize that. Man, he's still averaging nine wins the season.
• 18:21
  That's how That's how big of a rebuild this process was. So they
• 18:26
  need to get it right too. So No, it's gonna be fascinating.
• 18:30
  We're gonna try to actually do some podcasts in the off season. We keep
• 18:33
  up. Football is just all over the map these days with the portal.
• 18:37
  When is the portal closed? Do you know? I think it is closed.
• 18:41
  I think if it's not close, excuse me, it's not closed yet,
• 18:45
  but I think it closes. It's this week, it's fast, it's
• 18:48
  right after the Natty, which I mean, let's face this, how big
• 18:52
  of a disadvantage of the national championship teams in they're basically playing they're playing in
• 18:57
  conference championshipskend it opens and then they're preparing for bowl games and national titles the
• 19:04
  whole time that the portal's open, and it closes basically as soon as the
• 19:08
  season's over. I mean kind of sucks for those guys. I mean,
• 19:11
  look, I understand their rosters on his naked as somebody as as as some
• 19:17
  of these other guys, but the calendar needs to be fixed. This is
• 19:19
  a train I mean, it's a train wreck. I mean, I mean
• 19:22
  Quinn Shawn Judkins leaving. I mean, come on, man, can we
• 19:26
  can we get serious about caring about winning and caring about your team instead of
• 19:33
  just me? I mean, because that's all that is about. This is
• 19:34
  about money that there is zero into story. And I love the old miss
• 19:40
  fans acting like, oh, we run him off. No, I know
• 19:45
  you, but heard about him leaving. You didn't run him off. Now,
• 19:48
  did Lane Kiffin make a business decision that he didn't want to spend the
• 19:52
  money that Judkins was asking for and that he thinks he can get on the
• 19:56
  open market, You bet your bottom dollar. Happens every day every day,
• 20:00
  I'll guarantee you. Ohio State didn't want record to leave, but they probably
• 20:04
  weren't willing to up him to a million and a half two million dollars and
• 20:07
  then il they didn't think it was worth it. And that is going on.
• 20:12
  So if you on that, that's great. You buy me into that
• 20:15
  that you ran him off. Come home, man, I mean, come
• 20:21
  on, let's we say he's at Ohio State this weekend. I mean that
• 20:23
  tells you how good the player is. I mean he's gonna he's gonna get
• 20:26
  big money. But at the end of the day, where you're gonna go
• 20:30
  it some better opportunity and what Old Miss gonna be next year? They're a
• 20:32
  legitimate national title contender. So anyway, it's a mess. Let's talk about
• 20:36
  like going on, Michigan and Washington's gonna be a great king tonight. Team
• 20:40
  total over twenty six is where riding Scott likes the over in fifty six and
• 20:44
  a half. We're both on Washington getting the points and sprinkle a little bit
• 20:48
  on that money line. Folks, it's been a good season. Let's hope
• 20:51
  we can cash a couple more tickets, put a little bit more profit in
• 20:53
  the pocket, and then we'll start getting ready for the NFL Draft. We'll
• 20:56
  see what's going to roll out through the rest of Portal Sea and just enjoy
• 21:00
  college football, because by god, there's only about two weeks a year that
• 21:03
  it doesn't happen anymore. You know that something's not going on, and so
• 21:07
  we'll be out there as much as we can. Everybody enjoy the game tonight.
• 21:10
  Hit us up on Twitter, and we look forward to some feedback.
• 21:11
  Talk to you soon