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NFC North Betting Preview with Seth Wickersham · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Podcast Network.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: I am Chad Milman of the Action Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Huge, huge show today, probably the biggest one of the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: preseason so far, not just because of the division we're
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: going to be doing in our previews, but because we
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: have a very special guest. And I know, I know
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: for a fact my co host, my companion Mike and
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Padre might be a professional better. Simon Hunter loves this guest,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: and so I am in.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Chad, life's good.
• 0:39
  Speaker 4: Two weeks from today we'll be talking week one lines
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: and even better, we have arguably arguably the number one
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: journalist sports journalist in America on the show today.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Arguably.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, someone's gonna argue the other side. There's always that guy.
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: You're not gonna be.
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Me, brother, He's not gonna be me. We are.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: We are going to have our final two episodes of
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: our annual division by division NFL previews this week. We're
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: finishing our team by team breakdowns. We will talk about
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the NFC North today, we will talk about the Chicago Bears.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: We will talk about.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams, which is appropriate because our guest today made
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: some big, big news about Caleb Williams earlier this past
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: spring because he's got a massive new book coming out,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: which is brilliant, because he's brilliant, and he's an intrepid reporter.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: He's a friend of the pot, He's my close buddy.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: He's the author of the.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: New book American Kings, Biography of the Quarterback great title.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Seth Wickersham, my brother.
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, can I just leave?
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: It?
• 1:58
  Speaker 6: Can only go downhill from here? Where did everybody fire
• 2:00
  Speaker 6: the book?
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: I'll talk to you later, Yeah.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: I'll good run.
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: We had great come on.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, listen, you made the news this past spring about Caleb.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: It completely blew up that he did not want to
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: be on the Bears. I want to get much, much
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: deeper in the book, but give people a little bit
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: of insight into what that is like when you were
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: breaking that kind of story, and then how chaotic and
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: crazy the following weeks are, and a little bit about
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: sort of your building up of a relationship with Caleb
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: and his father, which is a huge, huge part of
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the book.
• 2:40
  Speaker 6: You know, I started working on the book in artist
• 2:42
  Speaker 6: in twenty twenty three, and Caleb was someone that I
• 2:45
  Speaker 6: wanted to meet with just because he had won the
• 2:47
  Speaker 6: Heisman trophies first USC, and he was kind of the
• 2:49
  Speaker 6: first above board, multimillionaire college quarterback. He was the first
• 2:54
  Speaker 6: professional amateur quarterback, and so I kind of wanted to
• 2:57
  Speaker 6: learn about that. So I spent some time with him
• 3:00
  Speaker 6: here in New York actually, and then I met with
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: his dad months later in outside of DC. And you know,
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: at that point his last season at USC, it was
• 3:12
  Speaker 6: a little bit of a struggle, like it just things
• 3:14
  Speaker 6: didn't look right. But his dad and the people who
• 3:19
  Speaker 6: knew Caleb best, who were all there at the meeting,
• 3:21
  Speaker 6: were all really focused on the draft, and they showed
• 3:26
  Speaker 6: me these slides of how Caleb picked a college, the
• 3:30
  Speaker 6: spreadsheet that he used, how he ranked and waited various
• 3:33
  Speaker 6: schools and programs and aspects of it. And the more
• 3:37
  Speaker 6: I learned everything from basically the beginning, you know, of
• 3:41
  Speaker 6: his junior year of college was reverse engineered for this
• 3:47
  Speaker 6: moment to be the first pick in the draft, and
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: my god, they were pulling it off. And so that
• 3:51
  Speaker 6: to me was just mind blowing. And then you had
• 3:53
  Speaker 6: this uncertainty. His dad is like, you know, the Chicago
• 3:58
  Speaker 6: is where quarterbacks go to die, and he wanted to
• 4:01
  Speaker 6: think big like Jack Elway did like Archie Manning did,
• 4:05
  Speaker 6: and try to figure out a way to give his
• 4:08
  Speaker 6: kids some agency over his future employer. And so while
• 4:12
  Speaker 6: I was working on the book with other characters, I
• 4:14
  Speaker 6: followed them through that process.
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: I was in touch with them throughout. Then it happened.
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: I wasn't really sure.
• 4:21
  Speaker 6: You know, he ends up going to the Bears. I
• 4:23
  Speaker 6: still wasn't sure what I would do with it. And
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: then every premonition that his dad had about how things
• 4:29
  Speaker 6: could go at the Bears went that way. I mean,
• 4:31
  Speaker 6: they were horrible in every way, and it was very predictable,
• 4:34
  Speaker 6: and his dad predicted it, and so at that point
• 4:38
  Speaker 6: I just kept reporting. I met with Caleb and his
• 4:41
  Speaker 6: dad separately earlier this year to kind of fact check things.
• 4:45
  Speaker 6: And then you know, it's kind of a waiting game.
• 4:47
  Speaker 6: Like the weird thing about books is that, like you
• 4:49
  Speaker 6: do all this work and then there are these massive
• 4:52
  Speaker 6: gulfs of no action, of nothing happening while the book
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: is in production, whatever it might be. And so that's
• 5:01
  Speaker 6: kind of how it all came together. And then you know,
• 5:03
  Speaker 6: you're putting together a new story. Some editors did that,
• 5:06
  Speaker 6: and then it goes out into the world and you're
• 5:10
  Speaker 6: doing a lot of talking.
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Listen.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: I know Simon wants to jump in because I was
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: talking to Simon yesterday. And you know, for those Seth
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: is one of my closest friends. We talked practically every day,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: so I don't think of him as a brilliant, intrepid reporter.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: But Simon is a true fanboy, so I want him
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: to get his questions in. But to that extent, the
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: book actually is brilliant, and I.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: Loved sort of the character development.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: And anybody who has ever watched a snap of football
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: should buy this book because it's everything you want as
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: a football fan.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: It's inside the game.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: You give great detail about various plays that anyone will
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: remember from John Elway's life.
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: All the way through today.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: You mentioned el Way, you mention Man, you were with
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: both of them, in addition to probably half a dozen
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: other guys. Explain a little bit as succincly and sort
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: of your pitch as you can what people are going
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: to get out of this book as football fans.
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: Well, I wrote it as you know, as a as
• 6:17
  Speaker 6: someone who came in it from a place of real curiosity,
• 6:21
  Speaker 6: having been a failed high school quarterback myself and having
• 6:23
  Speaker 6: had my entire identity, you know, at ages, you know, fourteen,
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: fifteen and sixteen wrapped up in being a quarterback and
• 6:31
  Speaker 6: what it's like walking through the hallway when you're the
• 6:33
  Speaker 6: quarterback of the school and you know that, you know,
• 6:39
  Speaker 6: as you know, I've worked at ESPN now for a
• 6:41
  Speaker 6: long time, twenty five years, and if you cover the NFL,
• 6:43
  Speaker 6: you cover quarterbacks. And even after all these years, I
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: still had questions and I wanted to write a book
• 6:49
  Speaker 6: for anybody who's ever played quarterback, who's ever wanted to
• 6:51
  Speaker 6: play quarterback.
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: Or anyone who's ever been kind of fascinated with it.
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: And it's a very unique job.
• 6:58
  Speaker 6: It's a very uniquely American job that I wanted to also,
• 7:02
  Speaker 6: not do a history of the forward past exactly, but
• 7:04
  Speaker 6: a history of quarterback, Like how did this job go
• 7:07
  Speaker 6: from its invention in nineteen oh six to very quickly
• 7:11
  Speaker 6: being something that our culture celebrated and put up there
• 7:15
  Speaker 6: with you know, other luminaries that you know, we honor
• 7:20
  Speaker 6: and mythologize.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Said, you're leaving out two of my favorite things, which
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: I'll tease for people. John Elway, who is just such
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: a legend and is an important part of this book.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Has such an amazing quote that gives an example of
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: how he thinks about his life and makes those comebacks
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: throughout his career so much more clear about how he
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: dreams about what will happen after he dies. I don't
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: want to give it away because people should buy the
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: book to read it. There's also one of the best
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: quotes I have seen in a sports book, because you
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: are deep inside the recruitment at the time of Arch
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Manning and there is a quote from one of the
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: coaches who is recruiting him from a school that he
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: did not end up going to that is.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Just so money from that process.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Again, I don't know, I don't want you know what
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: said you give the quote because I do want to.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: I don't want to like completely have people going blind.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: But do you know what I'm talking about from Alabama?
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: Yeah, well, let's just say it got oh the Saban one.
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: Yeah well, I mean, let's just say that, Like, you know,
• 8:34
  Speaker 6: I wanted to tell the entire history of the Mannings,
• 8:36
  Speaker 6: and the story of the Mannings through Arch and really
• 8:38
  Speaker 6: specifically through Arch's recruitment, and I think I have some
• 8:40
  Speaker 6: great details about how ruthless it got even though these
• 8:44
  Speaker 6: guys are like all buddies, like all the college coaches.
• 8:46
  Speaker 6: It's like they're all friends. But they are so ruthless
• 8:49
  Speaker 6: and they went to nearly any extent to try to
• 8:53
  Speaker 6: get arch to go to their school, including you know,
• 8:57
  Speaker 6: saying some things that you know, let's just say, like,
• 9:01
  Speaker 6: you know, they're they're pretty, they're pretty personal, you know
• 9:04
  Speaker 6: when when they when they go with other at their
• 9:06
  Speaker 6: at their competitors.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: It's great, It's really really good.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: Thanks.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: We just have to just buy the book. Just go
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: to Amazon, go to American Things, buy the book. Simon Sathy,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I'm fan Boing, but I'll let you.
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: You've obviously spent a lot of time with quarterbacks in
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: your career, and again I'm I'm fifteen years older the
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: Killer Williams. I can't relate to this kid in many ways,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: obviously generational difference when you spend time with him and
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: all these other quarterbacks you spent time with the have
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: done great things in the NFL. Does he have the
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: mental makeup to be a leader of men? Can you
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: see him leading men for the next ten years in
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: a battle eighteen weeks out of the year.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: Does he have that makeup to you? Or is he
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: still childish in some ways where.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: You know, the big thing in media this past week
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: was him throwing a hissy fit when he threw the ball,
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: missed the yeah, and again that's that's normal.
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: We've all done that when we were thirteen. So that's when,
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: like all these pros.
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: I'm talking all these guys betting big money, their big
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: question is can he be a leader of men?
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: Caleb Williams, And what's your opinion on him?
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: Because obviously you spent so much time with so many
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: great quarterbacks. I would love to know your view on
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: his mental makeup.
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: Well, if I knew the exact answer to that, I
• 10:16
  Speaker 6: would have flown to New York on my private helicopter
• 10:19
  Speaker 6: and you know.
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: Go back to my mansion.
• 10:22
  Speaker 6: But I think that Caleb is in the ballpark of
• 10:26
  Speaker 6: having what it takes. I mean, we'll see. I think
• 10:28
  Speaker 6: that like the interesting thing to zoom out. I mean,
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: it's one point. I was sitting with Steve Young and
• 10:33
  Speaker 6: we started going through all of the hats that you
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: have to wear as a quarterback, everything from Mattine idol
• 10:39
  Speaker 6: to feel general to amateur psychologists to spokesperson for a
• 10:43
  Speaker 6: multi billion dollar organization to you know, read taking asshole,
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: the times, all these things, and I think we stopped
• 10:49
  Speaker 6: at seventeen and it was probably still incomplete. And I
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: think that what Caleb has in abundance and this is
• 10:56
  Speaker 6: a kind of a timeless quality. I think that's really
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: being clarified now is that the fame and the notoriety
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: that has come with this position and the place that
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: we hold it in our culture has created a monster
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: where I don't think having one of the ten best.
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: Arms of your generation is just enough anymore.
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: I think that you have to have that quality that
• 11:20
  Speaker 6: politicians have, that rock stars have, that lead actors have,
• 11:24
  Speaker 6: where there's a hole in your personality that needs constant adoration,
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: like writers that needs constant adoration, constant love that almost
• 11:35
  Speaker 6: leaves to lives, needs to live in a self constructed
• 11:39
  Speaker 6: ecosystem where everything revolves around you. And that in itself
• 11:45
  Speaker 6: is fascinating because it is something that these guys need
• 11:50
  Speaker 6: to do to hardwire themselves to make it through this
• 11:53
  Speaker 6: unbelievable winnowing from being one of like sixteen thousand starting
• 11:56
  Speaker 6: quarterbacks in high school in America to being one of
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: thirty two in the NFL, to being one of the
• 12:00
  Speaker 6: ten Good Ones, to being one of the three that
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: make it to.
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: The Hall of Fame.
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: And it's also not something you just turn off. And
• 12:08
  Speaker 6: I think that, like, it's not the healthiest way to live,
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: and I think that when you're in retirement, especially, like
• 12:16
  Speaker 6: there's something I wrote about it quite a bit in
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: the book. Because you don't just turn that off. You
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: don't play quarterback.
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: You are one and.
• 12:21
  Speaker 6: That doesn't end when you stop playing, and so how
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: you contend with that for the rest of your life
• 12:25
  Speaker 6: is something I was really fascinated with.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that to me was amazing sort of a lot
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: of these guys, Warren Moon, you spent a lot of
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: time with John Elway, Steve Young, you had in the
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: past written about why it's it all and maintained a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: relationship with his family, so you understood sort of how
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: he managed the rest of his life. And everything is
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: not always as it appears with these guys.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: Even when they look great, right.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: John Elway has made tens of millions, if not one
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: hundreds of millions of dollars in his post NFL career.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Steve Young's same thing. Incredibly successful, But they're not They're
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: missing something right, Like you are a quarterback, what was
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: surprising to you, and the reporting went on and then
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: you were sort of examining it through the writing about
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: how these quarterbacks portrayed themselves.
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: One of the requirements I had for a character, I thought,
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: is that, like they either have to be kind of
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: an indispensable part of the quarterback story like Uniteds Nameth
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: the Mannings, or have enough perspective on their career that
• 13:36
  Speaker 6: they almost had like an opinion about it and they
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: could see it from the distance and you know, contextualize
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: it in a way. And I think that in the
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: process of doing that, I tried to understand what makes
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: some of the guys more content in retirement than others,
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: because I mean a lot of guys are completely lost.
• 13:59
  Speaker 6: I mean Tom Brady talked about it. Think about of
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: all quarterbacks in history, if not professional athletes in history,
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: in American history, at least, who had a better runway
• 14:08
  Speaker 6: into retirement than Tom Brady. I mean, he played until
• 14:13
  Speaker 6: he chose to walk away at a high level. He
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: had all these gigs lined up before he officially retired.
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: He got to retire for a month and then come back,
• 14:23
  Speaker 6: and so he even had a glimpse of what it
• 14:25
  Speaker 6: would be like. And yet still even in that year
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: off that he had between his retirement and when he
• 14:30
  Speaker 6: started at Fox, he felt lost. And I mean he
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: did some curious things, including that roast, And I think
• 14:37
  Speaker 6: that going back to what Simon was talking about and
• 14:40
  Speaker 6: what we were discussing, it's like, why did he do
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: that roast? And I think it's for the same reason
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: that Mickey Mannle used to lock himself in his car
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: during rainstorms just so he could hear the rain pounding
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: on the car, because that was the closest thing that
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: he felt to what his every day was once like
• 14:57
  Speaker 6: a Yankee stadium. I think that Brady needed to be
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: back on stage and in the spotlight again.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Samon, do you want to go next?
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: I have so many questions about Caleb just because, yeah,
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: he's so unique in the sense that you know, they
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: talked about him getting ready to be an NFL player
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: when he was like fourteen fifteen, and yeah, you know,
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: we have plenty of people in the past history that
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: you know, they had those expectations right they were on
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: their high school team, was on ESPN.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: They all the lip and it's rare they actually live
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: up to it.
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: Like this kid has met the moment every step in
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: his career from high school when he got to college,
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: winning the Heisman, you know, transferring, which is crazy to think,
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: like how many guys transferred to a different school then
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: to win a Heisman with that head coach. Now he's
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: in the NFL, and you know, I look at this
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: trajectory of it where he's not lived in any sense
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: of normal life, and I always wonder how does that
• 15:53
  Speaker 4: affect players like him where we're in a new age, right,
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: Like you just talk about the man is Eli Manning.
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, people might be too young to realize he
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: was an absolute legend at Ole miss partying his freshman year.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: Like I know people that went to school with him,
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: he was a dog. He was really a legend. And
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: he turned it around right. His dad got in his head,
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: his brother got in his head and were like, you
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: have the potential to be the number one pick. He
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: got it right, he figured it out. But again he
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: went through that adversity.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: Caleb Williams.
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: Adversity is different, right, This is this adversity is facing
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: is the Chicago media, And I wonder, how do you
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: think he's gonna handle that where you know, sure he
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: went through a little bit of usc nothing like this,
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: like this adversity's facing where you know they start one
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: to three this year, He's going to feel it, right,
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: So I would love to know your viewing him, how
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: you think he can face adversity.
• 16:42
  Speaker 6: First of all, I actually am very bullish on Caleb,
• 16:45
  Speaker 6: and I think it's entirely possible that they start one
• 16:47
  Speaker 6: to three because despite what happens in the preseason, these
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: things take time, and you know, it takes time to
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: learn a new offense, and it takes time for the
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: new offense to learn the quarterback, and you know, context matters.
• 17:01
  Speaker 6: But I think that, like with Caleb, the interesting thing
• 17:04
  Speaker 6: with me is like Elway was the first player ever
• 17:07
  Speaker 6: to be number one out of high school, first peck
• 17:09
  Speaker 6: in the draft, first ballot, Hall of Fame, Peyton came
• 17:13
  Speaker 6: and followed that, and now Caleb he comes along at
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: a time where there is a way to do this right.
• 17:21
  Speaker 6: There's a path to being a quarterback. You have to
• 17:24
  Speaker 6: have media training, you have to have physical therapy training,
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: you have to have a throwing coach, you have to
• 17:29
  Speaker 6: have an armcare coach. You have to you know, shop
• 17:33
  Speaker 6: high schools and find the one that is doing an
• 17:35
  Speaker 6: offense that best suits your skill set. You have to
• 17:39
  Speaker 6: go to all of these passing camps that have no
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: predictive value, and these quarterback clinics that have no predictive value,
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: like a lead eleven that you know that, as one
• 17:50
  Speaker 6: person told me, breed little assholes and succeeded them. And
• 17:55
  Speaker 6: he did all that stuff right, And I think that,
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: like that to me is the most interesting. You know,
• 18:03
  Speaker 6: part of the Caleb story is that, like of this
• 18:05
  Speaker 6: new generation of guys who say, Okay, I want to
• 18:09
  Speaker 6: be a quarterback and there's a path to do this
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: and this is this is how you have to dedicate
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: your time and your resources and your energy, he managed
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: to do it. And I think that, like fast forward,
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: you know, what does that mean for the NFL?
• 18:23
  Speaker 5: I mean, so he he had an up and down
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: last year at USC.
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: He obviously had that moment where he's crying in the
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: stands after they lose to Washington, and then he doesn't
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: meet with the press after the game, and of course
• 18:32
  Speaker 6: that just doesn't fly in the NFL. Right, You cannot
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: you cannot do.
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: That in the NFL. The locker room will turn on you.
• 18:40
  Speaker 6: And he has a tough rookie year, and I thought
• 18:44
  Speaker 6: that the leadership and the toughness he displayed. I think
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: anyone's rookie year is about survival, Like you can't extract
• 18:52
  Speaker 6: too much from but I think that like, if you're
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: looking to extract things from Caleb going forward, he was
• 18:56
  Speaker 6: incredibly tough. Remember that shot he took to the knee
• 18:59
  Speaker 6: I think on Thanksgiving against Detroit when he was going
• 19:01
  Speaker 6: out of bounds.
• 19:02
  Speaker 5: Got right back up.
• 19:04
  Speaker 6: He obviously was working within an offense that wasn't cutting edge,
• 19:11
  Speaker 6: let's just put it that way.
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: He left some plays on the field, but like, this
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: was not.
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: A well organized offense and all wasn't a well organized
• 19:17
  Speaker 6: organization and yet an operation, and yet he had some
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: great moments at the end of the games where he
• 19:23
  Speaker 6: was in those known passing situations and.
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: It's on him to make it work, and he did.
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: And I think that Sean Payton developed.
• 19:32
  Speaker 6: This quarterback formula to try to measure processing speed that
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: I write about, and even though Caleb Williams was never
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: going to be someone that he was going to draft,
• 19:38
  Speaker 6: he ran Caleb through it. And one of the things
• 19:42
  Speaker 6: that he wondered about Caleb was like, how is he
• 19:44
  Speaker 6: going to react when he's broken because he really hasn't
• 19:48
  Speaker 6: been And if that rookie year counts as that, I'm
• 19:53
  Speaker 6: not sure it does, but let's just say it does.
• 19:55
  Speaker 6: I think that if I were a Bears fan, I'd
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: to feel pretty good.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: So he just the magic words.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: I know, You've got to get out of here because
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: you've got to go do much bigger podcast.
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: I got time.
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: How could I possibly leave when you guys are saying
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: such nice things about me?
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Well, we gotta go. We got this.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: But before you go, like on this show, one of
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: our favorite coaches of all time is the guy you
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: just mentioned, Sean Payton, and you've spent a lot of
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: time with Sean Payton. You wrote a great story about
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: him for ESPN and you profiled a lot of what
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: he was a lot of what you're talking about is
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: captured in the book as well. You just talked about
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: the processing speed. He gave you a lot of insight
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: pre draft about what he was doing that you know
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: you were sworn to secrecy, which you now have written
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: about on ESPN dot com as an excerpt for the book.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Tell people who haven't seen any of those things. The
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: relationship you had with Peyton in this book and what
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: he shared with you about how he got to b Nick's.
• 20:53
  Speaker 6: Well, Sean Payton has, aside from the fact that you know,
• 20:57
  Speaker 6: he's just one of the best offensive coaches have ever,
• 21:00
  Speaker 6: he has always been haunted in a certain way. You know,
• 21:07
  Speaker 6: all of us ex quarterbacks were all Uncle Rico's in
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: some way, but with him in particular. He made it
• 21:14
  Speaker 6: to the NFL as a replacement player and in nineteen
• 21:18
  Speaker 6: eighty seven, and he struggled with processing speed, he struggled
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: with multitasking, and so he obviously, you know, coached the
• 21:27
  Speaker 6: hell out.
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: Of Drew Brees.
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: But when Breeze was on his way out and towards
• 21:30
  Speaker 6: the end of his career, he wanted to find a replacement,
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: and he wanted to figure out a way to quantify
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: college processing speed and if it has a predictive value
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: in the NFL, which is like, you know, that's that's
• 21:43
  Speaker 6: a gold mine in the analytics world, in and the
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: scouting world. And so when he did it, it wasn't
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: unlike Billy Bean, who obviously came from a very autobiographical
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: place in Moneyball of having had been a five tool
• 21:57
  Speaker 6: guy who didn't live up to it. So he knew
• 21:59
  Speaker 6: that there's something else there, and Sean knew that there.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: Was something else there, and.
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: So what he did was he took statistics.
• 22:05
  Speaker 6: That are available to everybody and he kind of waited
• 22:09
  Speaker 6: them and he created what is essentially a failure index.
• 22:14
  Speaker 6: And so he looked at all of the quarterbacks negative
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: plays and essentially tried to figure out how often they happened.
• 22:20
  Speaker 6: And he did that first in twenty seventeen, and the
• 22:26
  Speaker 6: quarterback that it led.
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: Him to was Patrick Mahomes.
• 22:29
  Speaker 6: He was going to draft Patrick Mahomes and then the
• 22:31
  Speaker 6: Chiefs obviously traded up with Buffalo, took him, and the
• 22:34
  Speaker 6: rest is history. And even though he coached Breeze for
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: a couple more years, then he ended up sat out
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: for a year, got with the Broncos. Russell Wilson wasn't
• 22:44
  Speaker 6: going to work out, so he kind of dusted off
• 22:46
  Speaker 6: that formula when he was going to draft a quarterback
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: in twenty twenty four and bo Nicks had by far
• 22:52
  Speaker 6: the best score of anybody, including Jaden Daniels, including Caleb Williams,
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: JJ McCarthy, anybody.
• 22:58
  Speaker 5: And so I think that he felt that he had.
• 23:03
  Speaker 6: Found a diamond in the rough in bo Nicks using
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: this formula and subsequent meetings with Bo and all of
• 23:11
  Speaker 6: that stuff. I just found fascinating that, like, look, no
• 23:14
  Speaker 6: one's saying that this is a silver bullet when it
• 23:15
  Speaker 6: comes to quarterback evaluation. But here's a really smart guy
• 23:18
  Speaker 6: who's done some things and he managed to find something
• 23:21
  Speaker 6: that really looked like it worked, and I detail it
• 23:25
  Speaker 6: quite a bit in the book.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: It's fantastic. The whole book is fantastic.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: If you are a sports fan, if you are a
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: fan of pop culture and how legends and myths are
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: made and born, if you are a football fan, inside
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: football fan, narrative, storytelling, football fan, just go buy the
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: fucking book. Go buy American King's Biography of the Quarterback.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Go to Amazon, go to Barnes and Noble, walk into
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: your local bookstore. It's by Seth Wickersham. Go buy it.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Seti Wickersham for joining us. Buddy good days.
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: Great to see you guys.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: As always, quick eggs up to anybody playing fantasy football
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: this season. It is fantasy football time. The ultimate twenty
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: twenty five draftkit is here courtesy of our Fantasy Labs team.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: That means our award winning team a Sean Croner and
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Chris raybund have their rankings, tiers and cheat sheets ready
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: for you. To get them, you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription,
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  Speaker 1: and right now new subscribers can use code flex twenty
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• 24:31
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• 24:36
  Speaker 1: code flex twenty for twenty dollars off at Fantasy labs
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: dot com slash flex.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: Simon, I hope you enjoyed it, Seth.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I know you're a big fan of his work and
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: what he does, and the book is amazing, so I
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: hope everyone will check it out. We're going on to
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: the NFC North. Just a reminder, NFC North plays the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: AFC North and the NFC East. This is the only
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: division in football with all four teams over eight and
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: a half wins and Super Bowl odds of thirty to
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: one or less. It is so loaded with coaching talent.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: The three veteran coaches Matt Lafleur, Kevin O'Connell, Dan Campbell
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: in this division have covered on a regular basis. They
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: have overchieved, They have won with backups. They have lifted
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: their teams up through personality and through strategy. They are
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the guys that we love. Now here comes Ben Johnson
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: adding them.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: To the list. They all have huge.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Personnel gaps that make a lot of this impossible to
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: handicap right now. But Simon, we're gonna try anyways.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: Are you ready?
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: Yes?
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: I am ready, Chad, Yes, start with the Lions.
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: Hello, de try.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Vision plus one forty five Conference plus four hundred Super
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Bowl ten to one win total ten and a half.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Can talk about losing Ben Johnson, can talk about losing
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn. I do think that the defense is better
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: by virtue of just being healthy. I think that they
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: were on a path to be a really dominant defense
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: last year and then they just lost everybody.
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: They obviously have great.
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Talent across the board, whether it's Jamison Williams, Amon Ross,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Saint Brown, the two running backs, the tight end Jared Goff,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: who I think is great. But here's the butt to me.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Frank Ragnow center, retired, Kevin Seitler guard signed with the Titans.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: I have serious concerns about their offensive line, and what
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: I can't figure out is is it an overreaction to
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: downgrade then because of the loss of Ben Johnson, and
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn have the books already accounted for that in
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the adjustment, ten and a half wins lower than where
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: they were last year.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: I can't get rid on this one.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: I feel like everyone is off the Lions, and that
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: makes me think, are we missing something?
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And I remember we talked about the you know
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: season coming into this year, you know, our preview of
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: playoff teams.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: I forced him in there because I was I just
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: gonn't get over the talent level.
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: And I think I've come full circle in the sense
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: that I'm even higher than I was a month ago
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: on this team, and it is because.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: Of the talent level.
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: And you just go through their last couple of drafts,
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: some of their free agency moves, and it's just home
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: run after a home run. So this is a team
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: I was trying to be down on because we've seen
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: a time and time again these windows are so small,
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: and when you lose coaches, it's a big deal, especially
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: in offensive genius like they had in a defensive genius
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: and Aaron Glenn like, I think that guy is highly
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: talted as well. But when you really dive into it,
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: it's unreal the talent of this team. Maybe you know,
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: the best safety group in football.
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: I agree with you. The weakness is definitely given that
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: offensive line. Like I'm glad you brought that up, because
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: I don't think.
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: Enough people are talking about that with this team. To me,
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: that is an adjustment. But you know, we've already talked
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: about a couple of teams that have suspicious offensive lines.
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: And I'm a big believer in scheme and quarterback can
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: always overcome.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: Bad offensive line.
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: Like, yes, there's gonna be players you'll lose out on
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: because you have such a bad offensive line. They can't
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: you know, adjust the blitz coming, different things like that.
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: But overall, long term, you know, if you have a
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: really good quarterback and really good weapons and an offensive scheme,
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: they will they will figure out how to move around
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: that offensive line and make it work eventually. So for
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: this team, I was going, I was looking for other
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: teams this division.
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: Of de thrown this team.
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: It's not that it's been bad for all these other teams,
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: but it all feels like they're all still a year or.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Two behind this Lion's team that's so established. That's just
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: they know the deal. Like in that locker room, there
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: is zero doubt with this team they put all the
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: blame of last season onto those injuries, like we talked about,
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: which is totally fair. I think we talked last week
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: of a week before.
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: I had them as our number one team coming to
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: the season last year, and my model has them at
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: number four despite losing all that offensive you know, minded
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: talent with Ben Johnson and offensive line pieces, They're still
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: my number two offense graded wise.
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: So it's like, I don't know I wanted.
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: I wasn't trying to be over reactionary, and I feel
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: like I was making them my seventh seed we did
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: our playffrank is now when I really dive into it,
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: I've been investing heavily into their divisional odds.
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: I've been investing into their win total, win the ten
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: If people are so confused about it, I think it
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: is because of the coaches they lost, But I just
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: think it's part of the schedule, right. They have a
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: tough schedule to what they had last year. And it's
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: also because I think their division obviously is better in
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: many ways. But you know the fact that you could
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: get them right now as a dog at Green Bay
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: week one where in Jordan Love has surgery and is
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: non thrown him. He's not practicing. That's I mean, people
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: know secret I've been hammering that. You can tease it
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: up right now to seven and a half, like that's
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: that's exactly where.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: I want to be with this this Detroit Lions team.
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: So yeah, people can probably tell I've I really done
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: in one eighty. I'm fully all in on this Lions team.
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: And it's just the talent level is just so insane
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: that even if they do take a step back offensively,
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: I think getting guys back healthy on defense will be
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: such a bump that you know, at worst, you can
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: see this team being eleven to five, ten and seven,
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: you know, like eleven and six, ten and seven, like
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: that is a possibility. But I don't see them missing
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. I don't see them being outside this divisional race.
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I know it's boring people. I know we're
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: going with another another team that won their division last year,
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: but it's just all these other teams are having drama
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: right now, and everything I've read in camp about this
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: Lions team is They've not missed a beat. The offense
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: is super high flying, defense is just a bunch of
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: nuts playing hard for they're head coach, I just everything
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: I read about it, it's like, all right, this is
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: exactly what you want to be reading about a contending
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: team heading into two weeks away from heading of the season.
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: So yeah, gimme lines over ten and a half. Give
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: me lines plus one forty five divisional odds.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: I'm so glad to hear you say that. I really am.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: Like I've been looking at this team and looking really
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: mostly at the numbers, and all of it feels like, well,
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: like I said when I was launching into this, like
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: too much of an overreaction, Like all of it feels
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the overreaction of the public feels priced in. And you know,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: there are teams that when they've gotten to the level
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: the Lions have gotten to and have.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: Had back to back heartbreak years.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Don't forget they were ahead in that NFC title game
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: against the Niners two years ago. Last year, they were
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: clearly the best team in the NFL, and they basically
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: they lost about nineteen guys on their defense and not
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: insignificant guys for an insigate amount of time. They're best
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: guys for season long, and so teams can crater. You
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: get none of that from the Lions, like they seem
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: to be so focused, so mentally strong. We talked a
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: lot with Seth about sort of mental toughness, right, and
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: can Caleb Williams.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: Be that guy.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: You don't get the sense that Jared Goff won't be
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: that guy, or that there's any less of confidence in
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff from that team At this point, if you're
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: making a bed in the Lions, there's no on field
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: metric that's going to tell you what to do. You
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: were only betting on the Lions being a well coached
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: team with incredible talent and getting over the transition of
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson. That's it, Like you're just
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: having an opinion. There's no number that can get you there.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: It's just an opinion. I think I'm with you. The
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: more I have thought about it coming in, it was
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: weighing on me. Hearing you talk about it. Getting plus
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: odds on them for the division feels good.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And it has to be this year though, because yes,
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: I look at this division. It is so talented, but
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: it's young. And that's the Chico that have. They have
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: the veteran team and a very young division. But we
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: know the deal right, Like this is you know outside
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: that AFC West, this is probably the best head coaching
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: group in all football in this division. So you know,
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: Lions fans know, we know it windows closed very quick.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: The window could shut this year, right, They could have
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: easily have a year from hell. I know people think
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: they had one last year. They were the one seed.
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: Like as bad as it was last year, that that
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: offense didn't lose any cogs in the machine. That was
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: the defense that was hurt. So that's that's my view
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: on this Lions team is that you know, if you want.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: To take them ten to one super Bowl, I get it.
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: I just don't do it because I have I have
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: mixed feelings about golf in the playoffs, but regular season wise,
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: this just feels like another juggernaut. And you know I
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: would not be show me and you were talking week
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: seven and eight, and I have them moved up to
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: my number one team in my power rank into my
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: model just because that's if they do overcome with Chad.
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: Just talk about their head coaching problems and the assistance
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: and you know that's that's the question here. It's it's
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: all on Man Campbell, like he's no longer has the
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: OC the DC that you know people can rely on
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: it's it really is on his plate, and with a
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: couple of new guys. So that's like we just said,
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: that's the only hesitation a question about this team.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: It's not the talent. It's just simply the coaching.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a Chiefs vibe, right when the
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: Chiefs sort of get overrated, when the Chiefs get discounted
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: by the public, and all of a sudden, there's value
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: on them because you know, they lost this, they lost that.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: People looking for holes and mahomes, whatever it is.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: It has a similar feeling to me of the past
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: couple of years, like let's let's.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Go all in on the Eagles, let's find a way
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: to love the Packers, et cetera, et cetera.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: By the way, breaking news from the second floor of
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: my house here on West Herford from Owen Noman, who
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: is texting me literally while being on the floor in
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: the room directly below mine. Daniel Jones has been named
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: as the week one starter for the Indianapolis Cults.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: The Anthony Richardson era will continue to have to wait.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: That's good for me, someone that wants the Colts to
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: be a team I can bet on. So yeah, that's
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: that's a big deal, right, that's I don't want to
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: say nail on the call for me Anthony Richardson, but
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: his career might be done in Indianapolis.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers plus two fifty in the Division Conference,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: ten to one, Super Bowl twenty to one win total
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: nine and a half.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: So look, we've talked about this.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: I think we both bet the Packers at twenty to
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: one to win the super Bowl early in the offseason.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: No way, did I really?
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: I think you did?
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the only thing I have in my book
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: is your forty nine ers bet and rams.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: I could have sworn we bet the Packers too. I
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: have it in my mind.
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: I can't believe. I don't know what was wrong with
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: me in February. That's crazy.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: The offensive line got better. I think the receiving corps
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: got better. I think their pass rush is middling at best.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: But I still think, like you're skeptical to me, I
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: don't hate this because if Jordan Love is fully healthy
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: for Week one, it's a non throwing injury. I do
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: believe he'll be back and sort of at full capabilities
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: and he can play all season. Mattvil Floor is one
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: of those guys like we don't want to bet against him.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: He makes really good decisions. He gets the best out
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of his talent. I'm not afraid of putting money. I'm
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: not upset that I have Packers' Super Bowl tickets at
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: twenty to one.
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: I'm just I don't know what's happened, but I'm out
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: on them. I know I picked them for playoffs. I'll
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: cole once ago. I just when I look at this division,
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: there's other teams I like better. With that, I think
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: I have better value and are better and are just
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: built better.
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: Where this team.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: I don't trust the wide receiving corps. Like they talked
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: about working on the drops. Everything I've seen in preseason
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: and read from their beat riders is the drops have
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: continued throughout practice with all different players. Now they might
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: have nailed Golden, like this kid might be an absolute stuff.
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: That kud they took in their first round speedster with
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: good hands. That's a big deal. But my issue is
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: the Jordan Love part two where you know Jordan Love
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: had an incredible seven game run beat the Cowboys in
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. You know well deserved took the forty nine
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: ers to it right, like they were really in that
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: game and he got paid for it.
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: And last year was.
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: The season from hell, but their head coach held that
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: team above water, right. He was able to make it
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: work with a backup quarterback and got that team in
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: to be, you know, a seventh seed in the playoffs.
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: Like tons of respected Green Bay, and I think that's
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: why coming into the r had so much respect for
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: them and just what they did last year. But I'm
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: really diving into it. Their defense still has holes to it.
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: Even though they've drafted the defense and they've tried to
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: add to it and make a better through freegency, it's
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: still to me ranks you know, below the Bears, like
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: I have them fourth in this division defensive wise and offensively.
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: I feel like I'm putting so much into Jordan Love
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: taking that next step where he's shown me zero signs
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: of him taking that next step. And I threw out
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: last year because he played through about three different injuries
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: and now he's already banged up. His not throwing in
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: which again not a big deal, but him not practicing
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: and doing the things he needs to do these last
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: couple of weeks. It's a big deal to me because
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: this is the guy that needs reps. He is such
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: an unfinished product that he needs these number one reps
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: with these receivers.
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: That have drop issues. So it's just because of this division.
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: If this team was in the NFC South, I'd probably
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: would be all over them to beat the Bucks and
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: win the South. But when I really go through it,
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: their division is so talented, I just don't think that
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: it's worth investing in them anymore. Like to me, you know,
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: I wanted to be on this team to win this division.
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: I was really high on them, but it's just all
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: been so negative in camp. I'm just worried about them
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: heading into the season where a lot of this rest
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: on you know, Jordan Love and what he's going to
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: be heading in the season, if he's healthy or not.
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: So yeah, in three four weeks in the season, I
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: could change my team of this team if they come
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: out and they look right. But I think they're gonna
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: come out and be sloppy and they can't afford to
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: drop early games, right they come out of the gates Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Dallas,
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: and then their bye week. So I know it doesn't
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: sound that hard on paper, that's that could be a
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: one in three start. Head into their bye week, and
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: that's my fear, where if they start one and three
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: in this division, I don't know if they can crawl
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: back because I am again so high on all these
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: other teams. So yeah, there had to be one team
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: I was gonna be negative on, and it's Green Bay.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: I just I've totally shifted my position on them. I
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: just don't like.
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: Everything coming out of camp, and they're a team that
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: I feel like is another you know, could they get
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: to ten and a half eleven wins? Of course if
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: things break right, Jordan Love, they could easily get there,
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: But I don't think the lines up for them compared
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: to these other teams in their division right now. I
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: just it's it seems like it's a bad camp heading
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: into a season that could be a little rough for them,
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: where you know, they've had two year straight years making
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: the playoffs.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: Chad's that's a nice run. It makes sense they would
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: have a down year.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: Well, look, their rushing game would have to be almost
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: historic and back to back seasons, right, what they did
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: last year with Josh Jacobs and their ability to have
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: him control the offense created so much momentum for them
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: and masked a lot of issues. You talk about it
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: with the wide receivers. Obviously they had a lot of
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: quarterback injury issues. That is how they dominated the game.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: But it's also because Matt Lafleur recognized this and recognized
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: that was the way schematically for them to take advantage
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: of their best chances to win. Maybe I'm over evaluing
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: how good a coach Matt Lafleur.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: Not though, like that whole thing you didn't will as
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, Chad, that blew my mind last year.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: It was incredible genius.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's to me, he's on par with
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: in terms of strategy Sean McVeigh Kyle Shanahan, Like, these
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: are guys who know their personnel and know the oppositions
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: personnel so well that they can steal two to three
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: games a year no matter who is on the field
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: because other teams can't match up with them as well.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: And I do think I can't decide if it's saying
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: a lot or not saying anything to say that the
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Packers have the fourth best defense in this division, because
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: I do think the three defenses we're talking about with
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: the Vikings and the lines especially, but the Bears are
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: are elevating into elite level. They were incredible in the
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: second half of the year last year, and everything about
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: their defense during training camp has been dominant, whether it's
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: been joint practices. We obviously saw it in the preseason
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: and I know they don't count, but they mean something
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: in the preseason. So interesting, I feel like we're if
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: you got to be down on someone because you can't
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: love everything level four.
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think I can't believe IVE flipped on
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: them because I really liked them coming to the season.
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: But when it's all negative like this heading into a season,
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: rarely with a young team like this is that work
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: out for But like you said, Lafleur's the chef code,
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: like he could easily write the ship pretty easily, and
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: this is gonna be another dominant season for Green Bay.
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: But the truth there's everyone in this division is a
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: cheat code exactly.
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: That's all. That's why it's so hard.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Right, Okay, here's what's interesting to me. The Vikings plus
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: three fifty conference eleven to one, super Bowl twenty to one,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: same as the Packers win total eight and a half.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: So either at twenty to one, either the Packers are overvalued,
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: which you may believe, and the Vikings then are undervalued
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: at twenty to one. To me, that's how you have
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: to sort of it's binary in this case. I don't
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: think like the Vikings and the Packers are necessarily even here,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: and I don't think that they're I think the Packers
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: are closer to being priced right at twenty to one
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: than the Vikings, who I think there's probably like there.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: To me, they're overvalued, I mean to say, because I
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: don't think they should be twenty to one. We don't
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: know about JJ McCarthy. What we know is that last
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: year we did not believe in this team because of
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald, which was a mistake. We under underestimated Kevin
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: O'Connell because while he was coaching with the suspect quarterback
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: and the hardest division of football, they were in it
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: until the very last game of the year. So now
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: he gets the guy that he liked and wanted to
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: start last year, and he's proven he can coach basically
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: any quarterback. So why shouldn't we believe in their ability
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: to compete?
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is the team I flipped on. It was
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: another year where I was like, Okay, I'm happy to
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: sit it out. And see if JJ can take that
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: next step. And not that I've been bullied, but every
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: pro I talked to who knows what they're talking about
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: while valuing quarterbacks, they love everything about this kid.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: And you know they loved it in July.
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: Here we are at mid August and the beat writers
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: are coming around on this kid and they're really loving them.
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: And you're seeing it in practice.
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: He's being more confident and consistent, which is exactly what
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: if you're a better and you're taking position on him,
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: that's what you're hoping for. But Chad's right, like them
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: being the same with Green Bay to me is crazy.
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: That means someone very smart with a lot of money
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: has moved this number because this was not twenty to
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: one that me and.
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: Chad talked months ago about the Vikings.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: So you know, I look at this team as you
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: know last year we did get burned by Sam Darnold,
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: anyone that was like flexing. They're like, yeah, see, my
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: model predicted that your model is trash. There is no
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: way your model predicted Sam Donald being a fourth quarter
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: hero like he was last year. That's just something that
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: it's unpredictable. Now, if you said you based off their
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: defense and what their defense can do. I agree that
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: was something I definitely missed that. You know, the year
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: before we talked about two years ago, they had this
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: flukeish thing where they basically led the league in fumber recoveries,
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: and that was part of the reason. We're like, Okay,
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: the defense might be great under Brian Flores, but they'll
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: take a step back with the turnovers. And it didn't
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: happen right They had Sam Donald was able to protect
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: the ball and they were able to force a ton
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: of turnovers last year. This fighting's defense, So we can
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: agree this is part of their scheme with Brian Flores,
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: Like he whatever he's running, it values attacking the ball
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: and getting turnovers. So yeah, looking at this team, it's
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: to me the probably the best value bet in this
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: division because of the unknown of JJ McCarthy. And I
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: know it sounds crazy to do. He was one twenty
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: to one to win MVP. He's down to eighty to one.
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: I still don't hate it, and I know again it
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: sounds crazy, but you have to look from the standpoint
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: of in the NFL, this happens all the time, where
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: a guy misses a year or whatever, someone's ahead of him,
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: like Mahomes with Alex Smith and that year two when
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: they come in and start, there's no tape on them
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: to prepare. These other teams can't adjust to it during
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: the season and they can have an incredible season and
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: a line's up for them where they have Hockinson, Aaron Jones,
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: justin Jefferson, all these incredible weapons on offense with a
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: top five offensive line.
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: That if JJ is legit, this kid, who all he
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: did in.
• 46:33
  Speaker 4: High school is win if you go back and look
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: at his stats, just an incredible winner gets the Michigan
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: same thing. And our biggest question was can this kid
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: throw the ball?
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: Like hardball? Wouldn't let him pass the ball?
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: So right there, it's tons of red flags, and now
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: we're seeing with koc who's opening it up for him.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: The kids got hell of an arm. It's all about
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: the confidence and he can believe in his own talent.
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: So that's why again I'm still all in an alliance
• 46:59
  Speaker 4: on this division because I still think this team feels
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: like a year away, But.
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: I see the light. I see why pros.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: Have been hyping up this team and talking about them
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: for the last six months now. Because if JJ is
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: that guy and he can do what Sam Donald did
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: last year, adding his athleticism and you know, be naive.
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: Like that's the key too, is he doesn't know any different, right,
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: This kid is so naive coming to this league. He
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: hasn't gone through all the bullshit that Sam Donald did.
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: That.
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, we can both admit that caught up to
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: whatever that mental thing is caught up to Sam in
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: Detroit in the Ram.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: That mental thing is called ghosts and interior pressure. That's
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: all it is.
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: We all have that inner monologue, like we all that
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: self doubt. And that's the hope with JJ is he's
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: the puppet, has never been hit. He's got the good life, right,
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: he's at the owner that loves him like he's only
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: been smoke blowing up his ass. Tot out Grady is, Hey,
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: we got rid of Sam Donald because this is your team.
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: This is all you lead us to the promised land.
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: So to me, it's lined up for this team and
• 47:58
  Speaker 4: at eight and a half wins, I hate it. I
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: wanted to fade this team so bad. I have to
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: take the over cause it's like if this kid's legit
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: with a stacked.
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: Defense and a stacked offense.
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: This could be a really really tough team to get out,
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: so again, brutally hard division.
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: That's why I'm not going all in.
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: Like to me, the biggest bet I've made is the
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: Lion so far went total wise, but it's like eight
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: and a half. They should just be the same as
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: Green Bay. They should be nine and a half. Like
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: they should not be eight and a half. There should
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: be a nine and a half win total because we've
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: seen time and time again like a team like them that,
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: you know what, they win fourteen games last year? Is
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: that really that big of a drop off going from
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: JJ from Sam Donald to JJ. I don't think there is.
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: I think it really is scheme debates. So last year
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: I believe it was fluky in some ways, but come on,
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: they were gonna get to ten or eleven wins, like
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: even with Sam playing out of his mind all this
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: fourth quarters. This was a complete team last year. And
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: you just said it. They've added pieces this offseason to
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: this team because they're paying a rookie quarterback, so it's
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: lined up for this team, right. They brought in Jordan
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: Mason to be their red zone running back as well,
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: So yeah, people can tell I'm I've been around a
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: lot of Viking truthers these last couple of months, and
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: it's it's been picking away me. I've I've been holding strong.
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: But once I've watched tape on him from their their practices,
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: and once I've read the be writers, It's like, Okay,
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: this kid, I can't keep denying it. He might actually
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: have the goods, because that's that's the fear is betting.
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: Like chat I talked about, this kid is totally unknown.
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: I'm betting on preseason hype, which is never good. But again,
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: I'm not heavily invested. I still think the Lines are
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: the best team this division. I just out of the
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: Green Bay Bears Vikings Trio. I do put the Vikings
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: at number two.
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: I watch a lot of Chase Daniel, the ex quarterback.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: He's got a great YouTube.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Channel where he breaks down quarterbacks and he does it
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: on TikTok too. The three quarterbacks he has spent the
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: most time on pointing out.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: Like, oh this guy's good.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: Are you ready?
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: One cam Ward, which you've been on for months?
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: Two JJ McCarthy, three, Caleb Williams.
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the Bears for a second, because
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: their division is four fifty Conference sixteen to one, Super
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: Bowl thirty to one, win total eight and a half. Reminder,
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: NFC North is the only division that has all four
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: teams with win totals of eight and a half or
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: higher and Super Bowl odds of thirty or shorter.
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: That's how good people expect this division to be.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit like if it was last year
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: or two years ago that was the AFC North where
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: the Browns, the Bengals, the Steelers, and the Ravens were
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: all over eight and a half.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: So look the Bears.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Anyone would argue highest ceiling, lowest floor because their combination
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: of new coach and relatively new quarterback is so unknown
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: and so loaded with potential and no QB. We just
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: talked to Seth about it has been examined more during
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: the preseason. You asked Seth two questions. They were both
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: about Caleb Williams's mental state. No quarterback has been more
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: examined during the preseason, for missing the net on accuracy
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: drills to looking like a Hall of Famer on an
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: opening drive of the preseason. I was in Vegas all
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: last week. I got home later in the afternoon evening
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: on Saturday night. Got home just in time to turn
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: on the Bears playing the Bills, and like I turned
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: it on at ten after eight, that first drive, the
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: crowd was so insane. Caleb was so good, dropping back,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: quick decisions, laser throws, no hesitation whatsoever, and then that
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: defense and that crowd. It felt like it was Bears
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: football in January. Right, That's how starved people in Chicago
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: are for a team that can perform at a halfway
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: decent level. But just because Ben Johnson has been a
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: coordinator doesn't mean he will be a genius head coach. Right,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: And as much as I think the defense has gotten
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: so much better in personnel, in coaching, and the offensive
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: line is so much better, Joe Toney, Drew Dahlman, I
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: really worry about this team because this sket is such
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: a mix of high and low. They get the Saints,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: but they get the Eagles, they get the Giants, but
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: they get the Ravens. Then they get the Lions, Packers,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: and Vikings twice, including opening the season with the Vikings
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: and Lions. And by the way, the team that crushed
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: their soul and mine on a live podcast, the Washington
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Commanders in.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Week three eight and a half, Like.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Seems like a tall order for a team where if
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: they got to seven or eight, I think it would
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: be a massive, massive success.
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: And that's what I happened. I had him at a wins.
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: So I am towards the under here, but I didn't
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: bet the under. I'm honestly leaning towards the over just
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: because of what you talked about, that that Ben Johnson upgrade.
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: And we talked to the phone last night and I
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: told you what got me really fired up wasn't the
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: touchdown pass, obviously, was the misdirection and having your second
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: tight end, Clement running thirty yards down the field in
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: stride Caleb Hittingham, And like, that's that's what I want
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: to see out of a Ben Johnson offense, is the
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: misdirection and a thirty yard bomb down the middle tier tight.
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: End, because that's what makes him so special. It's like
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: you need.
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: Someone to think differently when everyone else is thinking the same,
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: and that's what makes Ben so unique and special. And
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: I told you a month ago it was going to
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: be ugly early on with Kayleb because Ben is such
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: a psycho and if you're not running it right, he's
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: gonna make you run it again. And again and again,
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: and you're gonna hate them, you're gonna resent them, you're
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: gonna get pissed off about it. But that's his style
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: because he wants perfection. And you know, Caleb, like we
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: talked about, the reason I was asking Seth so much
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: about KiB is because I'm a believer in Caleb. Like
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: I've followed him obvious since he's in high school. I've
• 54:22
  Speaker 4: heard about this kid in the DC area. I've been
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: following him this whole run, and every step of the
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: way I've agreed with the other pundits of now, this
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: kid is the once in a generational talent. He's one
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: of a kind, and he's coming to the league, and
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: there was flashes of it. People already are bearing them,
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: leaving them for dead, right, they already had. Jamie Daniels
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: is by far the best quarterback in that class, and
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: maybe Drake may is even better than Caleb Williams. And that,
• 54:49
  Speaker 4: to me is just the overactionary of d NFL and
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: the general public. And I always say, two to three years, right,
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: that's what you should give these rookie kubis is a
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: two to three year window before you really start making
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: the this type of proclamations. And you know, when I
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: watched Caleb, I saw the flashes of why he is
• 55:06
  Speaker 4: so great. But that's what I was asking Saith about
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: his mental makeup, was there's so many things he did
• 55:12
  Speaker 4: last year that, yes, the coaching staff failed him in
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: many ways, but Caleb was failing in many ways. And
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: we all can agree that we saw what happened after
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: that Washington game that they completely you know, caved in
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: on themselves, and that all really started with him. He's
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: just that's why I wanted to know if he can
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: he be a leader of men, because this isn't you know,
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: little kids shit anymore. Like these are grown as men
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: looking for him for leadership in these dark moments, and
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: can he do that and be that personality type?
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: So you know, when I dive into your guys roster,
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: the talent is there.
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: And I do think the defense right now is probably
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: ahead of the offense in some ways because you know,
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: they have attacked that unit in a lot of ways,
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: and you know, we still have questions about even though
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: they spend money and they've attacked the offensive line, there's
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: still questions about the offensive line in some ways. So
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: you know, not enough I can get at a training camp.
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: But I I if I'm a Bears fan, this is
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: excited as I've been since that Mitch Trubisky year.
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: That year too, where you know.
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: I think Chad even bet the fifty to one Trubisky
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: MVP odds because I get it though, Like that's the
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: trajectory of these quarterbacks. So that's what I think this
• 56:17
  Speaker 4: year is for this Bears team, right, this is the
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: year before it, right, this is going to be which
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: I just said, seven eight wins for this team this year.
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: I think that would be a great first year for
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: this QB coach Combo, and that should be the expectations.
• 56:31
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: You know, fans are always gonna want more. If you
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: guys start hot, right, Let's look at the schedule. If
• 56:36
  Speaker 4: you guys beat Minnesota, Detroit, lose a Dallas, and then
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: beat Vegas, you're three and one head into that bye week.
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: How do you not drink the kool aid? So that's
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: why I like it's gonna be tough with Bears fans
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: here where you know, the excitement might be so hard
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: to pass on because it's great that you have the
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: Vikings in Detroit early on, because there's gonna be no
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: tape on Caleb in this offense, Like, you could beat
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: these teams early on because there's nothing to really defend against.
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: They don't know how to scheme against it. But me
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: and Chad know this could easily go the other way
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: that Caleb could look totally fucking lost from the bullet
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: start flying, and after the first fifteen scripted plays, it
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: could get ugly really quick because this is a whole
• 57:15
  Speaker 4: new scheme for this Bears team with a young team,
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: So with all that unknown, that is why I like
• 57:21
  Speaker 4: this Bear's team. But you know, I'm just I can't
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: bet this over. I can't bet their divisionalids. I can't
• 57:28
  Speaker 4: really do anything with them here because it's like what
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: am I investing in. I get why there's more confidence
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: in these pros betting the vikings there is in this
• 57:35
  Speaker 4: Bears team because I think there's just a little fear
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: of Caleb Williams and his mental makeup right now by
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: most better. So it's I'm really excited to see what
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: this teams like and how Caleb, you know, handles this
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: year because to me, he didn't once go to the
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: media and talk shit about anybody last year, and that
• 57:51
  Speaker 4: was so impressive. To me, But Caleb, I know again,
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: Seth just said it because has been trained to how
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: to talk to the media since he was fifteen years old.
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: But that impressive, Like he had so many times he
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: could have broke and shifted blame to the ownership that
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: had coaches to all that bullshit last year, and he
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: just kept eating it, owning it and moving on to
• 58:09
  Speaker 4: the next year. So as we say here right now
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: in mid August, if I was a bear saying, I'd
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: be so excited about this upcoming season and the future
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: because you have all the pieces. You just need to
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: go out there and see him have the growing pains
• 58:21
  Speaker 4: this upcoming season. This is not super Bowl divisional win season.
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: This is growing pains. If you can get in as
• 58:28
  Speaker 4: a seventh or sixth seed, that's a great season. Such
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: a hard division. So yeah, really excited obviously about disbarassing,
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: but I can't get there in over eight and a half.
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: That's just too much in this division.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: This is how I'm living my life right now, in
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: sort of existential dread on a variety of platforms, my
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: younger son leaving for college. I'm breaking down every I
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: walked the dog this morning and I was envisioning drop
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: off and realizing, oh my god, he's not gonna be
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: home for the first Bears game, and like, my dog's
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: taking a shit, I'm picking it up and I'm like
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: just dropping tears on the grass. And on Saturday night,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: I watched that first Bears drive and I thought to myself,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: what do we do after the first fifteen? It's exactly
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: what I thought, all right, because he didn't He obviously
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: wasn't in for the second drive, and so immediately I
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: thought to myself, I think we'll be fine.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: And by the way, it's like, I'm so all in.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: I'm like, I think we'll be fine for the first fifteen,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: but I don't know what we're gonna look like after that,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: when teams start to settle in and get a sense
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: of who Caleb Williams.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: Is, I don't know yet. So I'm psyched, but I
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: don't know.
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I really that Monday night game, I
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: really cannot wait.
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: Just the JJ gonna be so good. Yeah, Caleb Williams,
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: Like this might be the start of a ten to
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: fifteen year matchup between these two quarterbacks. So I just
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: these are the type of things is a football geek.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: I love to think about where it's just how exciting
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: this is that not that this is going to termin
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: either of these team seasons, but holy shit that Tuesday
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: morning in Chicago if they win or lose. That's that's
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: what I live for, like that type of stuff with
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: sports media.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: It's the best.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: Favorite bat from Simon, I think it's the Lions over
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: ten and a half.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: I was leaning.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Packers before I sort of started doing my notes, and
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: then I started falling in love with the Lions at
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: plus one and forty five, and then the conversation from
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: you confirmed it. So I'm going with Lions plus one
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: forty five because I like getting plus money on this
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: team to win the division. The Favorites will, oh, I.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: Just want to throw in there. JJ McCarthy eighty to
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: one day fun long shot.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: The Favorites will return with our next episode on Thursday
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page. When we talk AFC North,
• 1:00:53
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• 1:00:57
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• 1:00:58
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• 1:00:59
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