Latest / The Demographics Podcast with Fexingo: Aging Populations, Birth Rates, and Economic Impact / How Falling Birth Rates Are Reshaping Agriculture
Transcript
- Lucas: If you've driven through the Midwest recently, you might have noticed something odd: the tractors are driving themselves. Not in a sci-fi way, but actually — no one in the cab. Luna: I've seen the videos. It's eerie, but also kind of inevitable given what we talk about on this show. Lucas: Right. Because the agriculture industry is feeling the birth rate decline just as acutely as any other sector. We've covered housing, insurance, even wine — but today I want to dig into how fewer kids are literally reshaping the farm. Luna: So this isn't just about the toys and diapers side of the equation. It's about who's left to grow the food. Lucas: Exactly. And the numbers are stark. The average age of an American farmer is now around sixty. Thirty years ago, it was closer to fifty. And the share of farmers under thirty-five? It's been falling for decades, and now it's barely over eight percent. Luna: So the people who'd normally take over the family farm are just... not there. Lucas: Or they've moved to cities. And when they do stay, they're often not having kids themselves. So you combine an aging workforce with a smaller next generation, and you've got a structural labor problem that's not going to fix itself. Luna: And that's where the autonomous tractors come in. Lucas: Exactly. John Deere — that's the company most people think of as the green tractor maker — has been pivoting hard into technology. They acquired a company called Blue River Technology a few years back, which makes computer vision systems for spraying weeds. And now they've got fully autonomous tractors in commercial use. Luna: I read that they're calling it 'see and spray' technology. It uses cameras to spot weeds and only sprays those, cutting herbicide use by up to seventy percent. Lucas: That's the same underlying tech. And it's a perfect example of how a demographic squeeze forces innovation. When you can't find a skilled farmhand, you build a machine that does the job better and cheaper. Luna: But isn't there a fear that this just accelerates the decline of rural communities? Fewer farm jobs, more consolidation? Lucas: That's the honest question. And it's one the industry is wrestling with. Right now, the number of farms in the US is about two million, down from over six million in the 1930s. The ones that remain are bigger, more corporate. And automation could push that further. Luna: So the economic impact cuts both ways. On one hand, you have higher productivity and lower costs. On the other, you lose the family-run model that's been part of the landscape for generations. Lucas: And that's not just a cultural loss. It has real implications for how we manage land, because small farms tend to steward their soil differently than industrial operations. Luna: Hmm. So what's the actual evidence that this demographic shift is already changing farming practices on the ground? Lucas: Look at the equipment market. Sales of autonomous and semi-autonomous tractors have been climbing year over year. And it's not just Deere. CNH Industrial, which owns Case, has their own autonomous concept. Even smaller startups are getting into the game. Luna: So it's a whole industry moving in that direction, not just one company experimenting. Lucas: Exactly. And the economics push that along. The cost of farm labor has risen steeply in the last decade, partly because of immigration restrictions, but also because there are simply fewer people willing to do that kind of physical work. When a machine can do the job for a lower total cost per acre, the decision makes itself. Luna: But isn't there a limit to what robots can do? I mean, harvesting strawberries is notoriously delicate. Lucas: That's a great point, and it's where the technology is still catching up. Strawberries, apples, things that bruise easily — those are harder. But there's been serious progress. Some farms in California are already using robotic harvesters for lettuce and other leafy greens. Luna: So it's not that every crop will be automated overnight. It's more like a gradual adoption curve, with the low-hanging fruit — literally — going first. Lucas: Pun intended. And that's actually a useful way to think about it. The crops that are hardest to automate are also the ones that provide the most jobs. So the labor displacement might be slower than some fear. Luna: That's a bit of a relief. But I'm still curious about the broader economic ripple. If farms become more automated, what happens to the small towns that depended on farm employment? Lucas: That's the million-dollar question. And it ties back to the demographic story. The kids have already left. So the towns are shrinking regardless. Automation might actually help the remaining farms stay viable, which keeps some economic activity alive in those areas. Luna: So it's not just about replacing labor, it's about preserving what's left. Lucas: Exactly. And there's a global angle here too. Japan is a case study in extremes. They have one of the oldest farming populations in the world, and they've been pouring money into agricultural robotics out of pure necessity. Luna: I remember seeing those robotic rice planters they've developed. They look like little autonomous boats driving through the paddy fields. Lucas: Exactly. And Japan's experience shows that the pressure works. They've managed to keep rice production steady even as the workforce has shrunk. That's proof that this model can work, at least in some contexts. Luna: So if we're talking about the future of food, it might not be a dystopian wasteland of robot overlords, but a more efficient, tech-driven farm that produces the same amount with fewer people. Lucas: Right. And that's the optimistic version. But there are risks. If the cost of this technology stays high, it could widen the gap between large, well-capitalized farms and smaller ones that can't afford it. Luna: So we might see even more consolidation, with the big getting bigger. Lucas: That's a real concern. And it's why some policymakers are talking about supporting smaller farms through grants or tax incentives specifically to adopt automation, so they're not left behind. Luna: That makes sense. It's a way to spread the benefits of a demographic-driven change more evenly. Lucas: Exactly. And that's the kind of policy nuance we try to get at on this show. It's not just about what's happening, but what we do about it. Luna: Before we go further, Lucas, I know this is a topic you've been digging into for weeks. And I know our listeners really get a lot out of this kind of deep dive. If you're one of those people, and you've gotten something useful from these conversations, a couple of dollars a month genuinely helps keep us going. That's buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Lucas: Yeah, and it really does make a difference. We keep the show ad-free, and that's only possible because of that support. So if you can, that's buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Thanks for that. Luna: Alright, back to the topic. So we've talked about how technology is stepping in. But what about the land itself? Are we seeing changes in what's planted because of demographic shifts? Lucas: That's a good question. There's some evidence that as the population ages, demand for certain foods changes. For example, older consumers tend to eat less meat and more vegetables. So some farms are shifting from feed crops to produce. Luna: So the same demographic force that's shrinking the workforce is also changing the menu. Lucas: Exactly. And that's a double whammy. You have to grow different things, and you have fewer hands to grow them. So automation becomes even more critical. Luna: It's like the whole industry is being forced to adapt on two fronts at once. Lucas: And that adaptation is happening faster than most people realize. If you look at the patents being filed in agricultural tech, the number has exploded in the past five years. We're not talking about incremental improvements; this is a structural shift. Luna: So what should our listeners take away from all this? What's the one thing they should remember about agriculture and falling birth rates? Lucas: I'd say it's that demographics don't just change markets, they change the physical landscape. The next time you see a tractor in a field, it might not have a driver. And that's not a novelty — it's the new normal, born out of necessity.