Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL Week 8 Leverage Lane | October 25, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS

Transcript

NFL Week 8 Leverage Lane | October 25, 2025 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear, your lift up? What's up everyone?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tamberline here aka TOTEG and Tambo back for another
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: edition of Leverage Lane. We got week eight ahead, gonna
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: be talking all things ownership across the DFS industry, focusing
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: on DraftKings, single entry, GPP focus had a huge week
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: last week. We'll recap here in a bit, but we're
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: gonna break that down for you. Then we'll get to
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: how to leverage the common build once we go down.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: As we go down Leverage Lane, and then the right
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: at the end of the lane. Once we put it
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: all together, myself my partner in crime, Alex Blickel, will
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: break it down free at the end with our takes
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: and our leverage lane picks at the end. Alex huge
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: week last week, mister Marvin Mims over there, and if
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: you put it all together with both sides. We had
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: the Herbert set up on the other side with Jonathan
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Taylor with Mims, and I was very close to one
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: hundred K with just that combination. I know some Ship
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: and Nation members found the top of that and many
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: people were tagging us with the Mims stuff and the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Herbert side. What was your thoughts and still the last one.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: I promise hashtag never Mahomes not needed. Oh but he
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: only played three quarters. I honestly think Herbert played two,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Nicks played one and they both obeat him. But I
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: get at all the technicalities. What's going on, man, how
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: you doing?
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Last week was a lot of fun. It was
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: definitely my best week of the season since Week one.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Also a great week on the pick them and prop
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: side had Marvin Mims ladders. I know a lot of
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: shipped people and a lot of leverage lane watchers, a
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: lot of FTN subscribers and people in my discord all
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: said the same thing. It's like, even if they weren't
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: directly following the ladder bets that I put in my discord,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: just the analysis that we talked about here about Marvin
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Mims made people run to go ladder Marvin Mims. So
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: that was a really fun fourth quarter. You mentioned the
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: fact that bon Nick's only played one quarter. Marvin Mims
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: got like sixty of his yards in the less five
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: minutes and twenty three seconds in the game, So that
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: was a lot of fun. The way that game ended,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: great week all around. The Charger stuff really came through.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: I didn't have it with Gadsden. I had Keenan, but
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: I didn't have Gadson, so that plus playing Jacry Krosky
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: merit really cost me a chance at a takedown. But
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: really really good week, certainly my best week since week one.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Hopefully we can duplicate that success this week, Tony.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: It was a lad and JCM that cost me the
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: one hundred k on FanDuel. I had a really good
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: week on Sunday, ended up following it up with a
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: win on Monday and Showdown. But I think the biggest
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: thing was JCM had like three point seven on FanDuel
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: that hurt me, and Ladd had that one fall through
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: his arms on DraftKings. The Mims could have had a
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: touchdown too, by the way there at the end the
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: other one that sort of fell through his arm. Well
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: either way, really good week. Excited to recap that, But
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: we get right back to a week eight. As a
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: brand new week, we've got to do it all again.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: We're gonna break it down as we usually do. If
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: you like this show and you appreciate it, I see
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of support in the chat. We thank everybody
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: for watching. Make sure to smash that thumbs up. It's
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: like button hit that subscribe to the channel so you
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: can keep getting these free shows. Let's start as we
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: always do, and I know you have some different than
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: industry projections, which we love. You've got some very accurate
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: ownership when it comes to NFL, And just do a
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: bit of a grand scheme overview, if you will, of
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the ownership and what you're seeing for higher dollars, smaller
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: field or just single entry in general kind of thoughts
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: where it does go up for some of these players.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Derek Henry is one that comes to mind this week
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: at just six K. But what do you got over
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: there for some of these positions? And I'll recap anything
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: we don't cover.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the first thing I'll say is, you know,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: more than most weeks, this is a week where I
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: think ownership around the industry is wrong. And it's hard
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: then because like it also means that ownership this week
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: is probably tougher to predict. Ownership doesn't become wrong just
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: out of the blue, Like people around the industry aren't
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: just making mistakes. This happens when the range of outcomes
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: for a lot of different players is wider than usual.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: And so I do think it's a week where we
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: have to kind of really look at this and pay
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: attention all the way up to Locke to do our
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: absolute best to figure out where people are going. But
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: we also need to build lineups with the information in
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: mind that, hey, ownership can end up very different than
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: what I'm looking at right now. So you know, you
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: want to have things built in, like if you're wrong
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: about this, or you still protected on that steme with
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: this play or something like that, So understanding where things
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: are connected, Like what happens if Derrick Henry ends up
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: fifty percent As of last night, I was by far
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: the highest in the industry on Derreck Henry at thirty
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: seven and a half percent. It looks like he might
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: even go up higher than that. Now I might have
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: to get him over forty percent in single entries. So
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: if he does that, how does that affect Lamar Jackson?
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: How does that affect Zay Flowers? As Lamar's ownership changes,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: what does that do to Jalen Hurts ownership, who now
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: has a really straightforward two man stack. Remember a couple
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago when Herbert steemed because Quentin Johnston was
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: out and so all of a sudden Quinn Johnston out
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: meant Herbert Stacks had a very clear and obvious double stack.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: It was Lad and keenan allence was before Gadsden kind
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: of erupted. So the fact that it was easy to
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: stack him move straightforward, how to stack him made Herbert
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: go through the roof. Well, now we have that exact
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: same thing going on with Jalen Hurts, who kind of
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: you know, exploded last week to AJ Brown DeVante Smith.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: Now he has a really clear double stack with aj
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Brown out of Tavante Smith and Dallas Daughter. So Hurts
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: with his rushing upside and with his you know, push
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: push touchdown upside, he's going to be popular. How does
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: that affect Lamar? If people now choose Hurts instead of Lamar,
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: does that in and of itself boost Derrick Henry because
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: people view the Henry play as leverage off the Lamar Stacks.
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: So there's a lot going on there, a lot of
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: moving parts on the slate, But I think the general
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: overview is we do have some big time ownership this week.
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Jamar Chase, Derrick Henry, Davonte Smith all are over thirty percent.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: For me, Jamar Chase is going to push forty percent
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: for us, and then we have a bunch of guys
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: around twenty five, including all three of the really expensive
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: running backs, Jonathan Taylor, v Jon Robinson, Christian McCaffrey. I
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: think that, to me is the biggest question. How many
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: people jam these top running backs, and the more they
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: jam these top running backs, who are the cheapies? Who
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: gets steamed because of it?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah? I love the a few things that you brought
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: up there in this If anybody who hasn't watched this before,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: this is the focus of the show as we go
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: down leverage lane. The first part is figuring out the ownership,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: but not just who is high owned, how is the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: ownership connected, who is connected and them? In the second segment,
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: we get to, okay, now that we know that stuff,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: what does the common build look like? And you said
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: a couple things there, like one that's most interesting. I
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: think of those big three that you just mentioned, I
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: think McCaffrey definitely gets pushed down some. And I think
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the interesting part and why is that not just because
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: the other two seeming to look better on paper. I
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: hear people talking about them, but I also hear people
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: talking about a the lowest price ever on George Kittle
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen at forty five hundred. It's National tight
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: End Week. You hear all these narratives and the thing,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: and again we're focused on leverage, not just narratives. So
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the point would be, if you see something like that,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of people could say, oh, well,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: at least if I don't get to McCaffrey, maybe I
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: can get there with George Kittle, and that's at least
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: protecting themselves. But that's a way to think about it differently.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: The other thing you said, I think you've nailed it
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: is the spot on with the hurt stuff hurts Davante
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: pick up the stem of Lamar and zay. It's not
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: quite a complete I don't think it's an exact TV too,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: but it's got to be pretty close, right. It's I
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: think it's sixty eight and fifty four hundred for sixty
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: six and fifty nine, so it's very close. It's a
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: couple hundred bucks off, few hundred bucks off. That's a
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: point of when that happens. Again, you just know this
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: stuff with it. It's a little bit of art versus science,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: but you know when people are moving to that, they're saying, ah,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: since I'm doing that, I get I better get Dereck
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Henry in there, because I don't have Lamar, I don't
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: have Zay. So again, it's all interconnected. That's the important piece.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: And this reminded me of a quote on our launch
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: version of this show is thing Is Week three. We
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: brought this out, Alex, and we talked about it, and
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: I love this quote and it's good. It was just
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: your personal thing. But you said, the goal isn't to
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: build a good single entry lineup. We can build lots
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: of those with sound process, we can make something look good.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: You said, the goal is to build the winning single
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: entry lineup. And of course the critics out there were like,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: well no shit, pal Like, I get yes, But it's
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: not about the statement as much as the how do
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: you get there? And that's the whole point of knowing
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: what is going on and then what really can crush
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: that and beat that or make things work? Go ahead.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: I think what I said, and maybe I said this
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: incorrectly the first time. I think what I said is
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: the goal isn't to build good lineups, is to build
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: the best possible line right, and the best possible lineup
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: means that we're not doing things that are okay. It's not.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: We're not doing things that are fine from a correlation standpoint,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: but they don't make a ton of sense. It's to
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: build the best possible lineup. And so, like, one immediate
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: takeaway for me when looking at this ownership is I
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: don't want to play DeVante Smith or Dallas Goddard as
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: a one off. It's too likely that if either of
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: them goes off, that they're bringing Jalen Hurts with them.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: So for me, it's either double stack with both of
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: them and Jalen Hurts, or stay away from that passing game,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: whether that means I'm playing it through Barkley, playing the
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: Giants defense, or just hoping the game underwhelms overall.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Great point, and that's something I don't again people are
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: focused on cash games or something that, or treating their
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: single entry like a cash game. I think they feel
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: very safe and strong with like, oh, just I'll just
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: plugging Goddard here, because if I'm not on Smith, if
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not on Barkley, I'm not on Hurts. I better
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: at least get a piece of it. Can it work? Yes?
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: But you nailed it is if Goddard actually breaks the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: position and has a day for the slate at that price,
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: and at that position, it's very likely there's going to
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: be a Hurts version of it that has you covered.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: So you could almost be backing yourself into a corner
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: before things even start again. We don't have the answer
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: sheet until it ends. People will come back with a
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: winning lo up with God like I told you I
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: could do it like good for you. We're explaining theory
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: and concepts, and that's the thought process that's so important
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to think about when you're building out your lineup, and
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: we'll get to some of that later when we get
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: to the finish line with the leverage lane. Just going
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: back to I wanted to see one more thing, so
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Lamar Hurts. I've heard a lot of talk about bo Knicks,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: but it's mostly for cash games like six K. We
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: saw what he can do in one quarter. Let's just
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: plug him in. It's the Dallas defense. Do you think
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: bo Nicks comes in just after those guys or where
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: do you have him on the chart.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got him at ten percent. I've got Flacco
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: at eight and a half percent, Ratler at six percent,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Tyrod at four and a half. I think the biggest
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: question mark is this morning we got news that Kirk
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Cousins is likely to be the starter this week for
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: Atlanta forty four hundred dollars. That's a five hundred dollars
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: discount from Michael Pennox. I think the overall sentiment there
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: is going to be that Cousins might raise the passvong
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: in the offense, where maybe it's not so much that
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: like he's better than Pennix, but it just means they
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: call five fewer runs and five more passes. And so
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not exactly sure how people are gonna view that
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: you made the great point before we went live, that okay,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: but Vegas actually lowered the total with this news, so
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: maybe people follow that. But it wouldn't surprise me if
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: we see Pitts in London gain a little bit because
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: of this news, and you know that five hundred dollars difference,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: it's small, but it can be really impactful, especially if
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: that means that all of a sudden, you know, a
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: lineup that couldn't fit Jamar Chase now is able to
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: fit Jamar Chase. So a lot of the time, like
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: a five hundred dollars difference can matter a lot more
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: in some line of than a dozen others. And I
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: think the Falcon Stack stuff, because there's already a lot
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: of interest on those players on Bijon, on London, even
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit on Mooney, a decent amount on Pits
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: less so now that we have the Goddard play. But
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: you know, there's also some on on the Miami side.
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: There's interest in Jalen Wadroll, there's interest in vone Chan.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: So maybe we see this become a thing. That's not
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: something I've been able to really work on this morning yet,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: so I don't know, but but there could be ownership there.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: And then the other guy who I think is going
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: to get some actually two others, Baker and Daniel Jones,
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: both around seven percent.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: One thing i'll add there that Again, like I said,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I know you're gonna go back and work the numbers
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: and spreadsheets, the algorithms, have them all plug together because
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you mentioned one interesting point. It's not just the five
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars savings. That's just a note. I think it's
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: gonna be sharper. It's not my leverage ly anything, but
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be sharper in tournaments to leverage
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Bijon and stack with cousins. You mentioned what if it
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: is and I know this is such a small number,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: but what if it is five to ten more passes? Again,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: they can go to Bijon. He can do lots of
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: good things with the ball in his hands. But the
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: point is more of I do feel like less people
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: will go that route. And I also will say the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: reason I see that is because again the total didn't
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: it dropped a little bit with the news and all that,
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: But also I still see like Egbuca, Shahid Olave, Davonte Smith,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Zay Flowers, obviously Jamar Chase, people that want to pivot
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: to T. T. Higgins. Like I see a lot of
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: opportunity where I think Drake London could still just stay
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in check. And I think you've made the Mooney call
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: a couple of times on this show and in general,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: and it may it could even become like a mim spot,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: not saying it will exactly, but just noting it is
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: like we've definitely seen opportunity if they're passing it a
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: bit more. He just has this way of getting open
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: and obviously when teams have to cover Drake London and
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: other guys like that and watch out for Vijon he's
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: got He's a pretty good spot to find that. So
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I think it could end up being lesser own even
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: at the forty four hundred. I also think we haven't
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: got there. Fully, It's not one thing we don't do.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: Alw is cover all the values. I think you covered
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: wide receiver quite a bit. You covered or sorry, you
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: covered running back quite a bit. We covered wide receiver
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: pretty good. Tight end like we have Schultz, we have Goddard,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: we have Cadotton, we have Tyler Warren who's only fifty five,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: George Kittle forty five. We have tons of options there,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: and I know people are willing to go double tight end.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: And then you think about, like the Houston guys that
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: are out with Nico Collins and Kirk. There's cheap guys
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: just on that team alone at the wide receiver position.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: So you're gonna think about and Garrett Wilson's out for
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the Jets. And I'm not saying people want to go
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: to all these spots, but it's more interesting to me
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: of would they end up on Kirk Cousins more often
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: for the savings when they've got savings everywhere else? And
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: then they need a jam In the chases and the
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Jamar Chase and a couple of good running backs at least.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So I don't know how many people end up there,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: but I think it could be a pretty good tournament stacked.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: You have any extra follow up thoughts or any other
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: wide receiver values before we go to the common build.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: You talked a little bit there about like how many
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: tight ends we have available, and this week on projecting
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: the most double tight end that we've seen so far
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: this year. I've got it about twenty percent, so one
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: in five lineups expecting to be double tight end. And
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: it's it's because of what you said. Yeah, we have
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: Tyler Warren, we have George Kittle up at forty five
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars, so it's not like everyone's paying down at
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: the position. But then Goddard, I've got it twenty five percent,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: he's forty two hundred dollars. And then there's kind of
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: a string of guys under four thousand pits, Mark Andrews,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Mason Taylor, Kada, and Dalton Schultz all getting some. And
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: then there's also one town of twenty six hundred dollars
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Isaiah likely with Lamar back I'm I was expecting a
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: lot more interest on a twenty six hundred dollars Likely.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: He was second only too Zay Flowers last week in
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: routes run for the Ravens, So I'm interested down there
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: if he's really going to be five percent or less.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: Early in the week, I thought he was going to
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: be fifteen to twenty five percent, So I don't know
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: why he's being glossed over so much. People really seem
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: to just prefer Mark Andrews at one thousand dollars more.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: That seems like a mistake to me. I honestly wish
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: that Mark Andrews was thirty percent owned and I could
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: leverage him with Likely. But it also looks like, you know,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: what's one of the ways that Henry doesn't get there
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: in massive ownership if he doesn't score touchdowns? What if
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: Likely catches two touchdowns and that's all he does on
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: the day, he smashes and leverages Henry. So I'm definitely
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: interested in Likely, And I think you can also play
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: him as like a contrarian way to play Lamar Jackson.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: So we've got that around the corner as well.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Interesting news just came up. Excuse me while we're here live.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: John Harbaughs said full practice, non committal about Lamar Jackson starting,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: and Lamar Jackson ran scout team at practice Friday as
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: an indication he may not return in week eight. And
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: then we already had snoop. We had hotly get called
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: up and so and set up to go so interesting.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: That could change a lot as well. Let's do it
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: because we're on the show log. What do you think
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: happens if we find out Lamar is not playing? What
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: changes or how do you see this go?
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: It changes everything? Zay gets no ownership, well he might
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: still get He might still get some just because the
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: price is really low. But Henry would go way down.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: Like Henry at six thousand dollars would still be a
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: fine play against Chicago. It's not like their defense has
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: been good, but without the threat the offense and without
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: without the threat of Lamar keeping the ball, and without
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: Lamar being in the field to move the offense and
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: to get them scoring opportunity, like Henry ran for one
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: hundred and twenty two yards last week and wasn't even
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: close to being a useful play. Only had nine point
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: three the week prior seven point eight the week prior,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: so like he hasn't been doing anywhere near enough. His
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: only good week this week or this year was Week one.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I think he would go way down and this entire
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: slate would change. I mean, if if you're taking away
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: that much ownership from the running back position in the
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: mid tier, and you're taking away that much ownership from
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: a wide receiver position in the mid tier, there are
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: so many places that ownership can go. So yeah, that
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: would be that'd be really really interesting. I don't know
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: what to make of that, Like, I don't, I don't.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: I can't really put like a probability yet on how
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: likely I think Lamar is to still play. It's far
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: from a definitive report what we've gotten, but it would
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: it would change just about everything.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I also, well, I agree one thousand percent. But
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: I will say this, one of the most interesting things
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: of concepts and talking through stuff like this is if
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: it sounds like we're not actually getting the news until
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: in actives, which means that there are so many people
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: men that just build their lineups and don't And I'll
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: also say this, one of the most interesting things of
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: all to me is I'm not hearing anybody say the
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: reason Derrick Henry is a good play this week is
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: because of the matchup and because of Lamar Jackson being back,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: who actually helps him. Everyone is just saying it's the price.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: It's six thousand dollars for Derrick Henry, and they're disregarding
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: that there's about nine other running backs on this slate.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: I could make a case for a lot of them
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: in really good matchups at fair prices. The only thing
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: people are saying is they finally priced Jonathan Taylor and
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Bijon up and made the pricing tighter. But my guy
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Hoop yesterday made a pretty good point on the Cash
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Show is it's not really. It technically is tighter, but
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: it's not really it's like the right price. They finally
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: price them correctly, but then they also didn't price a
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: lot of other things correctly if that's considered correctly, So
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: it's not really the way I would look at it.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: So it's gonna be really interesting to see if people say, ah,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: you know what, even Lamar was out, I'll still keep
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: my Dereck Henry because he's only six k. Good matchup.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Let's run it and see what happens, because that would
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: be potential for huge leverage by going underweight or fading altogether.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I'm very confident in is if Lamar
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: doesn't play Jalen Hurts, Davante Smith, Dallas Goddard will be
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: extremely popular. We could see a thirty percent Hurts, just
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: like fields a few weeks ago we could see a
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: forty percent DeVante and a thirty plus percent Goddard. Reason being,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: it's not just that those are priced very similarly, but
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: it shows like the kind of preferences that DFS players have.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Right if someone is playing Lamar Jackson as their stack,
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: they are saying, Hey, you know what's one thing I
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: really love for my quarterbacks rushing upside. I want that
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: extra ceiling. Jalen Hurts gives you that. So it's an
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: extremely similar stack in terms of the archetype of the quarterback,
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: the price of the main wide receiver, the price of
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: the main tight end, the predictability of who's going to
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: produce if this quarterback does throw a lot. So so
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: much of that Lamar ownership, that stack ownership would just
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: be a perfect flip flop over to Jalen Hurt, So
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: he would steam in a kind of a massive way
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: to the point where there's not a chance in the world,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: and I would play the eagle stack if there's no remark, Yeah.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: It'd be way worse than I know. You were hard
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: on yourself about this one, and I don't think you
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: should have been. But obviously we do review our stuff
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: and come back on. But when we talked about that
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: Allen thing a couple of weeks ago with Keenan Allen,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: where it was like, once Qj's out, you went to
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: that I've made this mistake huge in the past. That
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: was last season when Pickens was on the Steelers and
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: he was ruled out late Calvin Austin the third came in.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: We all wanted to get to Barkley on that slate,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: and right as soon as the slate locked, it was
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: not results, it was the what I what I had
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: just done was oh man, I literally did what everybody
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: just did, and now Barkley got super steemed to the
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: moon when no one could play him before because everyone
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: was so excited they had a way to get him,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: and then you had him with like the worst chalk
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: wide receiver value on the slate. So it's not always
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: in the answer was Friarmouth in the same game at
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: a onesie position in a pretty good matchup had almost
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: twenty points and that wouldn't have put you necessarily on
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: or needed to go there. So anyway, the point being,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: you do got to think these things through. And that's
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: why if this then that scenarios are so important when
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: putting these things together. And like we talked about in
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: this segment one is how is ownership connected. That's how
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: it's gonna connect. I don't think anyone's gonna be running
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: to play Snoopuntley. I really don't think people are currently
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: playing Kirk Cousins as it is, they'll be playing him
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: in tournaments still, get me wrong. I'm talking about in
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: single entry, higher dollars, smaller field and all that stuff.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: There's enough options at affordable prices, and there's enough values
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: that are true values to the slate that I believe
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: people will be able to get there. So anything else
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: for segment one that you want to talk about, or
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: do you want to go on to segment two and
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: try and start putting this together with some combinations, with
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: some game stacks. Anything else we missed.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Well, this is kind of going into segment two here.
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: But since the start of twenty twenty two when Eagles
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: got AJ Brown. Jalen Hurts is averaging twenty three and
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: a half Fantasy points per game with AJ in five
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: games without him. What do you think that average?
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: I would I'm the worst of these guessing games, and
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: I've also been put on the spot on the ranking
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: game and not done too well. Maybe you should just
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: tell us what I know, you got the best stats.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: It's fourteen point zero, So twenty three and a half
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: down to fourteen point zero. It's it's exactly the point
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: that you just were kind of alluding to. It's like
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: this idea that when a quarterback loses their main option,
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: we shouldn't flock to him just because it's easier to
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: stack him. We should remember, hey, wait a minute, that
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: makes him less likely to succeed. And I'm not sure
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: there's a quarterback wide receiver duo where that's more true
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: than Jalen Hurts and a J.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Brown.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: Like all this, you know, trade discussion of potentially trading
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: AJ Brown is insane to me because anyone in the
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: building kind of knows this. Like AJ Brown was a
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: game changer for Jalen Hurts his career. He unlocks so
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: much It's not just how good he is. It's not
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: the the emphasis that he forces the opponent to put
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: on the deep passing game. It's AJ brown strengths aligned
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: perfectly with Jay Hurts strengths. I think we really really
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: like this, to me, is an edge this week understanding
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: that no Aj Brown is bad for the offense in general,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: for Jalen Hurts specifically, especially against a defense that just
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: performed pretty well against this offense. This to me is
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: like fading. This spot is as good a leverage spot
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: as any we've had this year, just because it makes
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: so much sense from a football perspective, not just the
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: DFS game theory perspective.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Well, then I gotta ask one more and then we'll
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: get to the common build finally. Actually, but what about Barkley,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Like nobody's on Barklay. Now, nobody's gonna be on Barkley.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: If that happens, it just picks up even more. This
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: is actually one of the better matchups we've seen this
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: season is against the Giants on the ground. But that's again,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: we're Week eight, et cetera, et cetera. All those things
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: you just listed and then and then we are changing
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: the offense altogether, but you usually are pretty good about
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: picking your team off. But the key to me is
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: more from a DFS perspective, is the ownership, the potential
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: for the steam on the pass game, and then on
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: top of it, the fact they still have like a
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: twenty six point team total at home and he's squeezed
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: in between the price ranges of like currently the Derrick
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: Henry or going up to the Bijon's and Taylors. So
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: what do you think about that?
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna do some pretty good work here on
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: dismantling the idea that I'm a Philly homer when I
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: don't think my team is set up for success. I'm
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: going to tell you guys that. And this is a
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: week where I think I'm much more likely to play
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: the Giants defense than i am Saquon because exactly what
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: I just said, right, Like, one of the reasons why
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: Aj has been so impactful for the Eagles is because
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: he forces that second safety back for opposing defenses. He
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: makes it so much harder to stack the box against Philly.
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: If you stack the box against Philly, you get beat
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: down the sideline by AJ Brown. It's that simple. We
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: saw it with Minnesota last week a number of times,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: whether it was Devonte or aj he is so incredibly
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: impactful to everything. The main adjustment that team's made to
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: this Philly offense at the end of twenty twenty three,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: when when they started to really struggle and just collapse
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: down the stretch of the season, was they said, you
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: know what, we're not giving any more deep, single high
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: looks to AJ Brown. We're just going to get rid
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: of that. We're going to make Philly run the ball
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: against us to beat us. And that was a huge
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: game changer. Right. Everyone talks about how Howie Roseman paying
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: for our running back was kind of anti analytics. It
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: really wasn't. It was probly analytics of the sense that, Okay,
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: teams have made this major adjustment against us. Analytically, what
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: can we do to get those single high looks back
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: for offense? Well, we have to actually really really punish
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: people for putting that second safety back there, which means
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: we have to run the ball extremely. Well, let's go
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: get a Saquon Barkley kind of game changer. So yeah,
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: I think this is not a spot where we say, okay,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: if they can't throw the ball, they're just gonna run
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: the ball because I think they've already had these major
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: efficiency issues on the ground, main one being they just
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: can't break the long one right sake. One's longest rush
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: of this season is eighteen yards. It happened on the
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: very first play from scrimmage against the Giants, but it's
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: still a long run on the entire season of eighteen yards.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: So I won't be going to saque. I think I
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: might be backing this Giants pass Russia what twenty one
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars, especially if that's leveraging the Eagles, So that's
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: probably going to be how I'm doing it this week.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Talk about leveragelnanybaby that's gonna a huge leverage, especially like
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: you said that that hurts stuff is already steaming up
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: with the set up there of the Goddard Devonte Smith stuff.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: I also think when Alex talks, I listen and not
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: doing a ton of bets myself personally, but when I am,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: it's the under on the Eagles total, because otherwise, where
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: did the points come from? It's twenty five and a half,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: twenty five points depending on your book. Where are those
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: coming from?
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: Up?
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: They're not coming from any of that and I think,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: like you said, there is going to be an opportunity
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: here where it just ends up being a bit of
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: an underspot or underwhelming. And look, the Eagles could win
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: twenty to seventeen, could be a grinder type game, but
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: that's not the team total that's required, and that's what
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: you could end up seeing happening. So I like that call.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Let's go on, Let's move to some of the combinations
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: that you see happening out there. I think we know
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: of a couple of them. Let's talk about what the
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: common build it looks like. And I think the biggest
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: thing is and some of the stuff we didn't mention
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: yet is like the Rashad White mixed with the current
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. But even if we want to leave again,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to fully leave them out. I think
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: it's STI gonna be possible. But let's just say Rashad White,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, some of these tight end spots like Schultz
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: or Goddard, Like, what are you sort of seeing if
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: we're discussing the common build.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: This is a weird one because most of the time,
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: like the main stacks, people are targeting a game. But
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: because it's Lamar and Jalen Hurts, Like, nobody from Chicago,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: nobody from Philly or from New York is going to
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: be very popular, right, Like, I think a lot of
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: these stacks aren't even going to use a bringback. So
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: the first thing I'd say is, if you do really
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: like either of these stacks, the number one thing I
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: think you have to do is find to bring back
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: you Like Scataboo Wandale Robinson for Philly, stuff DeAndre Swift
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: for Chicago, I think is a solid play this week.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: So I think like that's one way that you can
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: just get an advantage within those stacks. But it also
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: means that the any stacks that we have to avoid
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: each week, there are probably fewer of them this week.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: I think the the mini stacks that might be the
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: most popular are actually the ones that make the most
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: sense this week, which would be something from Atlanta Miami,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: because like, if you're using Bijon Robinson, what's the biggest
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: concern you have here in this unbelievable matchup with Miami's
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: defense that might as well like not even be on
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: the field at times, it looks like they're playing eleven
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: on ten every snap. Well, it's Atlanta gets up so
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: big that they just say, all right, we don't need
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: to give Bijon eighty percent of the touches this week.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Let's get Tyler Algier really involved. So if you want
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: Bijon to have access to that true ceiling, you need
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: Miami to actually score points and to push them. So
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: Bijon and a Chan, Bijon and Waddle like that makes
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of sense this week. So even if that's
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: more popular, I think the correlation actually makes it doable.
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: So I don't think I have mini stacks that we
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: have to avoid this week. It's almost like I've got
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: one offs that we have to avoid this week. I
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: don't want to play Ze Flowers as a one of them.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: I don't want to play Goddter or DeVante Smith as
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: a one off, because if those guys have success, they're
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: bringing their quarterback with them so often that you know
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: you don't want to. You don't want to play into
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: something that makes it harder for your fade of the
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: highest upside rushing upside quarterbacks in the slate to hurt you.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: So that's I think my kind of like larger scale
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: ownership analysis for this week, which.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I think is still important, and that's obviously people want
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: the biggest combination. Like some of the stuff you can
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: put together, like you said, like from building out a
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: cash game type common build where you're going to have
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Chase Rashad White, one of Schultz er Got or you're
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna have one of, if not both, Davonte Smith
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: and who we talking about is a Flowers. Like that's
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: the type of stuff. But I like what you said
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: there because you know, for me, let me put it
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: this way. What do you see wattles single entry ownership
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: at right now? What do you think Wattle comes in at?
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: So I have it as less than the industry. I
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: think I have him at like a nine percent. I
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: think a lot of the industry has him around fifteen percent.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: But important, no, I have them at eleven.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: But like.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: In in Bijon lineups, Wattle might be twenty five percent.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: So when you're using him, if you're using him, well,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: it's not like he's one of those contrarian separators. He's
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: just helping you be right about Bijon instead of Jonathan Taylor,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey or Jamar Chase. Things like that.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: I don't because we're on the fly and it's gonna
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: be so tough to look it up, but man, I
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: just like for I know I can look it up
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: because there's like stacked seeker and combos and things that
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: you can check out. You usually check all this stuff
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: after the fact as well. I just don't have a
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: good example from last week, but I would. I just
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: don't see a world where Wattle gets owned, and well, yes,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: he would be more owned in those Bijon lineups. I
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: was going to say, I think if you see Bijon
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: getting up over you know, thirty to four, if he's
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: in that thirty to forty percent range like we suspect
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: in single entry, I think a way to slice into
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: him is with Wattle. And it's a secondary stack that
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: actually makes a lot more sense than some of the
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: other things we're talking about where it's not baked in,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. But the point being, he needs
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: to get pushed. And at fifty seven hundred, even if
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Lamar was out, I don't see Zay Flowers coming down enough.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: But even if you do, I still see Jamar Chase,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: I still see Davonte Smith. And then because Devonte Smith's
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: only two undred bucks more than wattle, I'd see a lot.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I think I'll see more Robinson Davante Smith or Robinson's
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: a Flowers, then I'll see Robinson wattle. But because of
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: wattles percent like for wattle lineups, yes, more wattle lineups
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: will have Beijon in it because that's how they'll be
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: making it work. So I get where you're coming from
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: on that, But I do think that's the types of
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: things that I look for where it's not only is
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: it a secondary stack, but it's one that would make
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: sense because what keeps him out there? And you did
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: a good job of this the week that James Cook
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: crushed it was like, if James Cook is gonna do this,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: it's gonna require this. And if you remember, it was
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: actually the Saints they were playing that week, and Rattler
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: and those guys put up like nineteen points and had
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: it made it a game for three quarters. So I
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: think that's kind of things where a lot of people
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: will just overlook some of that stuff. I feel like
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: we almost reverse engineered the popular combos to find like
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: a different one that you actually could play with good
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: reasoning to your point of some of the other stuff,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: people often forget you need some stuff to speed up
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: a game, and the example is gonna be in the
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Ravens spot too. Like a lot of the reason that
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: stuff was even in consideration, and I wasn't gonna go
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: here for my leverage lane, but I think I was
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: going to mention in that game was I actually thought
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the bear side of that stack could be interesting with
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: like Rome or if you want to use swift with
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: somebody and like a secondary stack. My point was I
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: thought that maybe that would make it because Lamar and
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: that offense actually humming for once, now that he would
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: be back, if he was back, would maybe make it
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: so the other side could push it further. Now I
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: don't know if that'll be the case as much, And
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the interesting thing about when you're looking
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: at it and you nailed it with like the Giants
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: and the going against the Eagles, that's actually a spot
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: where maybe the Eagles or sorry, the Giants defense could
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: become the leverage piece on this slate. And they also
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: make a hell of a lot of things work at
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: just twenty one hundred dollars, so you don't always need
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: the big score, you know, sometimes you do, but that
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: could be a spot that that happens. What else are
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: you see being if we turn to like game stacks
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: and things like that, even if it's places that you
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: don't see the combinations as popular. It's now it's almost
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: flipping it on this slate to working in in the
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: other favor of what are some ways we can go
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: because like you said, I love your call. I don't
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: think people are running back a lot of these stacks
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: this week. They're treating it more like some of the
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: pricing got tighter. So I'm gonna go even though it
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: really just became correct. O, there isn't other stuff isn't correct.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna go make lineups that makes sense
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: and work.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll give you one. There's there are three really
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: high upside rushing quarterbacks in this slate, and one of
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: them is not going to be on josh An Allen.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: I really like Dalton Kincaid this week thirty three hundred dollars.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: The thing about Carolina, they're not just a really good
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: matchup in general for tight ends, but they're really good
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: matchup for Titans for at least one specific reason, probably
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: multiple actually, but one of the main ones is they're
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: getting killed by play action and only one guy on
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: this Buffalo team excels in play, and that's Dalton kin Cage.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: So I think Allen and Kincaid's stuff makes a lot
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: of sense. I would have liked Josh Palmer here, but
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: he's likely out, or he might already be rolled out.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: But on the Carolina side, because we have Andy Dalton
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: this week, I think this game as a whole could
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: really speed up, more so than most weeks that we
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: have seen from Carolina. I still think they're going to
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: try to run the ball a lot against ric o'dowdell
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: or with through ric o'dowell. But Buffalo knows, hey, you
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: know what we've been weakest against the run. What does
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: Carolina want to do? Run the ball? So we could
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: see them really try to stop the run, and Carolina say, okay,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: we've got any Dalton this week, we can actually kind
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: of throw the ball. So Jalen Ted McMillan fifty seven
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars, I think he's got a lot of upside
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: in this matchup. So Josh, Allen, Dalkin Caid, Ted McMillan,
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: maybe you find a fourth somewhere. It might even be
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: dowt On. You may maybe you go more on the
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Carolina side and hope that Josh Allen does a lot
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: on the ground. But I think that's a potential, like
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: great way not just to approach the slate, but you're
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: kind of directly leveraging the Lamar and Jalen hurt Sex
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: because you're using the same style of quarterback and you're
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: just hoping that your guy outscores him and then actually
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: is you know, almost the exact same structure too, Right,
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: if we're talking about a mid tier wide receiver and
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: a cheap ish tight end on both of those other teams,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: we're doing the exact same thing with McMillan and kincaid,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: even though it's one guy now on the opposing team
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: instead of both With Josh.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Allen, Yeah, this might be like three four hundred bucks off. Again,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: there's a ton of ways to find it on this slate,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: but I honestly think Hurts Davonte Smith Goddard and the
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: Bengals d which will be very popular on this slate.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: We don't always talk about that, but just noting it,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: it's almost the same price to play Allen with Kinkaid
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: tet on the run back and then throwing your Giants
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: d since you're not on you, you're double leveraging it,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: but in a way that makes perfect sense, and it's
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: up four be four that someone could do the math on.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: It's not that far off though, I can tell you
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: that because Tet is two hundred cheaper than Devonte Smith,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: Kinkaid is only a hundred bucks more than Goddard. Yes,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Allan is more. I think he's nine hundred bucks more,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: but it's like six hundred or seven. I think it's
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: six hundred bucks less from Bengals down to giants. So
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: you might need to find three four hundred dollars, but
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: it's just proving a point of like, how could that
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: could definitely still get there? Let me ask you this then, too,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: because I think people would appreciate your explanation on this.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: It's you made it really clear and an excellent explanation
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: earlier on why Goddard may not be a good one
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: off this week, right because you know that not as
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: many people are playing Allan like, there's not much there's
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: a not a highlight clude that he's going to get steamed.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: Do you think for one hundred bucks more a pivot
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: to King Kaid would be okay? As a one off
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: based on the quarterback and the stacking not being there
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: to support something that would come up over the top
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: and crush kink What do you think about on something
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: like that.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a great point. I would also say,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: not just like Kinkaid as a one off, but if
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: you're using what you said, which I think was a
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: phenomenal connection there to say, Okay, if you're going to
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: the Buffalo sack instead throwing the Giants defense, yes, that
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: is also like the perfect lineup that Derrick Henry actually
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: makes sense in because even if you think Derrick Henry
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: is way over own, it doesn't deserve to be forty
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: plus percent. Well, the time to use him is when
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: you're saying, Okay, I'm killing the Philly stack with the
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: Giants defense, I'm leveraging the Philly and Baltimore stack with
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: the Buffalo stack. Let me also kill the Lamar stack
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: by saying all of the touchdowns go to Derrick Henry instead.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: So I think that's like another way to do it. So,
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: if like you're building out a shell, I think a
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: really good start is Alan kincaid McMillan the Giant, and
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: then Derrick Henry is one of your running backs.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: And it's such a different way to play Derrick Henry.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: So I assume Lamar plays in this example, just to
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: give the example, and so people are still on him
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: even if Lamar is out. I still think you's have
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: enough ownership to matter. But my point being so many
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: people think of it, like and I watch this every week.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I do the review show over at Mastermindship and Nation
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: discore people posting stuff. It's like, man, I try to
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: do what they said on the show. I went with
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I went with Alan, I went with Shakir, I went
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: with Kincaid. I got ted in there, and then since
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: I wasn't on Hurtz and Lamar, I played Henry. I
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: played Barkley, and then I punted three spots. And it's like, geez,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: like tho, it's the three punts that got you. We
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: just told you how you can still do the exact
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: same thing. Dude, Will Giant Steed work out? Maybe not?
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Maybe they suck And you're like, that's a horrible play.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: That's fine, but they make perfect sense for that build
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: and they're only twenty. You spent eighty one hundred leveraging
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: those two other quarterbacks because you still went with the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: popular six k running back and the twenty one hundred.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: But instead of putting in like fourteen thousand or fifteen
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars towards leveraging the other side, you still made
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: it so you can have a better overall lineup. And
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: that goes back to your original quote, which I'm not
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: gonna butcher the second time, but you got it right
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: the first time. It's your own quote. But the main
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: point of playing, like the lineup to get to the
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: top and win. That's why you get there. And then
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: other people are like, well, I only got these three
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: punts to come through. Yeah, that's a lot of things
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: to ask for. It's like three underdogs on a betting slip,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: if only they come That's why you see so many
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: parlays die on the last leg. Same thing. In this example,
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: you may be able to get a much better overall
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: lineup that gives you equal or more chance to actually
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: take down a single entry tournament, and you're still leveraging
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: it in the same way. That's the stuff when we
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: say we're talking about things differently than others. Maybe some do,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: but for the most part, you don't see a lot
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: of people just put those pieces together. Hopefully that helps
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: you guys put those pieces together out there as well.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: Just going through it, I'm gonna save one because I
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: certainly have a spot for leverage lane, and you know
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: that I'm gonna get to maybe some can already predict it.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: I typically will play this way and maybe some can
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: guess it in the discord. One thing we didn't spend
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: enough time on probably that I want to spend right
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: now on just to make sure we hit it is
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers situation. Obviously unfortunate for Mike Evans. I mean
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: obviously always a big opportunity for him each season he
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: goes out and crushes it. But with the classical, theconcussion,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: all that stuff, it looks like, you know, he could
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: return the season, they said, but it'd be later in
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: the season. But where are you landing at with like
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Buka tes Johnson, Rashad White, and then I know you
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier like Baker sort of falls into that just
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: outside the top two spots right now, but he could
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: also pop up if we get news of Lamar not
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: playing in the end. Now that we got that update,
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: So what are you doing with this? What are you
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: thinking about this? Tampa Bay side of things when we
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: land there.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: I think one of the ways I like to kind
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: of think through these plays is what did the field
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: think about them before the last time we had kind
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: of this situation on a main slate for Abuca, he
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: was one percent owned and then he crushed against Seattle,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: he was literally one percent in the two hundred dollars
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: single and see that week. So the fact that he's
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: now fifteen percent because he smashed against Seattle makes me think, Okay,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: we are now overreacting to what happened previously. I think
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: we were right the first time, and we said he's
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: he's not at the level yet where he should be
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: a seven thousand dollars player on a main slate. And
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: I think that Tes Johnson is someone who, like I was,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: I would have been much more interested in him if
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: he were contrarian, But it looks like he might be
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: around ten percent. So I'm kind of just not on it,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: and I'm going to hope that the offense struggles a
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: little bit, which is a lot harder to do when
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: you're playing the New Orleans Saints. But you know, there's
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: to me, there's just a little bit too much ownership
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: on all of these pieces for me to be excited
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: about them, I'd probably be happy to play any of
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: them as a one off, probably Abuka excluded. If you know,
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: the last spot on my atlantup just landed on them
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: and they made sense, then okay sure. But other than that, like,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: I'm certainly not going to prioritize anyone from this game.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: So I think this game again is not my leverage lamme,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: but this could be a sneakier spot only because you know,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: we've seen Rattler's ability to push the game at least
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: somewhat we talked about earlier, even up against the team
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: like Josh Allen and the Bills, which is questionable now
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: with some of the games they've they've had and losing
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: to Atlanta things that maybe Atlanta's just good we figured
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: out so or more Buffalo is just bad. We don't know,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: and they got away with some stuff. But either way,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: this game does have some So when you talk about
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: pieces being interconnected, Yet where does the full classification come from.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: It's like, okay O lave popular each week and he's
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: had had some pretty i'd say some higher variance when
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: it comes to the bonuses and things like that. So
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: there's a possibility. Shahed, we know can set a game off.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Rattler at forty seven hundred sort of fits that mix.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: On the other side, we know the only play that's
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: really getting pumped hard is White and then Agbuka and
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: for values Tes is up there. But how many are
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: playing Baker with that stack? Do you think if you
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: had to stack this one, you would go the saving
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: side with like the Rattler, Olave, Shahed or well it's
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: not quite savings at the quarterback? Would you consider something
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: like Baker Tes and Kate Oughten, who's one hundred dollars
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: less than popular Dalton Schultz and then use a piece
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: like Shahed on the other side to try and speed
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: that pace up or Olave? What do you think you
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: would do if you were going that route in this game?
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: The first thing we'll say is, I think this is
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: a game where we probably do want to avoid some
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: of these mini stacks just because it's it's just the
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: condition ownership thing like Buka, Olave, Shaheed, Ted Johnson, all
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: these or Shot White like they're all getting enough ownership
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: that I think a lot of people clicking them are
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: going to use them as part of a mini stack.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: So just for the sake of unique combinations. I would
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: go elsewhere if you like any of these guys, if
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: you're prioritizing these guys. But that's a great question. I
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: think the guy that I know I'd be using in
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: some way is Tes Johnson because when he hits, he's
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: going to speed up the game so much. I think
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: i'd go to the rattler side. I think i'd go
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: Rattler Olave Shaheed and Tes Johnson. And now you have
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: two guys speeding up the game in Shaheed and Tes,
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: where you're still hoping, like, hey, I want this game
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: to be close. If this game is close, should just
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: go with the cheaper side and the side that doesn't
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: need a Buka to hit. Save a lot of money
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: that way, and you're still getting as much if not
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: even more upside because you have these explosive play guys.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: I also think that's the other thing is that's the
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: it's the easier way too, but just doesn't mean everyone's
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: going that way. But it's an easier way to get
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: Rashad White in there if you wanted to, Like when
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: you talk about being able to go a full game stack,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: if you truly feel this is going to get some
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: back and forth and these prices are going to pay off.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: The one thing that is a little bit comical and
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: we make fun of it all the time, is like
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Olave to be in the safe play and all these things.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: But people have said that about Drake London and then
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: watched him explode for thirty People have said that last
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: year a bunch about Terry McLaurin in games, then he'd
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: explode and oh he's just a cash game play, cheap option,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: like they won't boost it up. At the end of
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: the day. Olave is a wide receiver one and he's
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: under six K right now this week. People will say, well, yeah,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: but so is Devonte Smith. But DeVante Smith, we've already
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: had that conversation. Is filling the gap of one. And
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: yes he's had his games we just saw, but that
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: was the game aj Brown was in. We've already had
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: these conversations. So the point being, Olave will be owned anyway.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: But that's the ways, Like, like you said, why it's
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: probably better to think about an actual game stack than
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: it is to think about a secondary when you or
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: a one off when you get to a place like this.
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, yeah, I.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Think there's a really kind of a porn point here
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: on a lave, which is when is he most likely
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: to access this ceiling. Yes, he had two touchdowns last week,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: nearly had one hundred yard bonus, but they only scored
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: fourteen points. So if you look at his game logs,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: twelve point four, eleven point four, fifteen point seven to ten,
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: twelve point nine, fifteen point eight, he's doing this with
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: a team scored twenty six once and every other game
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: they were nineteen or fewer, so they actually they had
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: they had one game of twenty one. But you see
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: the point, right, It's like when is a lave most
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: likely to have the game where he goes for twenty
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: five or goes for thirty. It's what happens if Neworleans
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: actually scores twenty seven or more points in this game.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: And so if you're betting on a lave, you might
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: as well bet on the game getting there. And if
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: the game gets there, you don't just want a lave,
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: you want the really cheap quarterback who's now producing twenty
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: seven plus points. So that's why to me, like this
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: is I'm I'm in agreement with you. I think this
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: is a good underrated game stack, but I don't really
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: want to attack it if I if I think this
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: is going to be twenty seven to seventeen Tampa and
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: neither team outproduces their expectations, then I don't need to
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: go to them for a one off. I want to
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: I either want to bet on this game as a
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: whole or not go to Waking.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: And I will say this, I agree with all of that.
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: I feel like one of the things, you know, it
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: was always you know, a thing that we talked about,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: but I think like this is a setup of we're
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: talking signal entry right for the most part, and it's like, well, yes,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: whatever you're comfortable with and say you should do it.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: That's the whole point of leverage lane. Stay in your
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: lane and run with it. If you feel like this
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: is the spot, get there. I'm more likely to get
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: to this spot. And we do put it on the
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: thumbnail like single entry three max twenty max. I'm more
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: likely to get this to this spot personally as I
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: open things up as opposed to where I begin things,
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: that's just my lanes that I'm looking at. So but
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: from a single entry perspective, I think if you're going here,
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: I will say going back and rounding out this segment
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit before we will hit on some more.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: If you guys have more things, throw them in the chat. Also,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: I want to say for this week, make sure you
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: put in the comment let us know what your lane is.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know why we haven't been doing this all along.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: It's a lot more fun when there's the engagement people
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: putting it in there, and we're gonna look at circling
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: back and have some prizes and stuff. So let's hear
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: on what is your leverage lane? Not in the chat
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: right now? You can. I know some people throw it
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: in because they don't listen. But after the show, the
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: live show ends, is when comments open up and a
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: lot of people watch this on replay. They can't be
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: here first thing in the morning on a Saturday. So
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: you're watching this on replay, go right now and put
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: it in the comments. You're currently watching live as you are.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: You'll have to wait till the end, but quickly, Alex.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: This is probably one of those combination spots that we
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: see that becomes popular because of the Rashad White stuff.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: Like we said earlier with Bijon and with some of
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: these other guys, even the Ravens side, it's not really
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: true that everyone's just picking someone automatically. From the other side.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: There's ways to leverage those one offs with you know,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: like someone asked about Swift. I think Swift is a
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: great leverage option this week on the opposite side, the
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Ravens get run all over. It's definitely a possibility. But
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: in this game, White with Olave or White wish Shahi
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: that that'll definitely be pretty popular combo. I don't have.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: We'll lead the way, but it'll definitely be a popular commo.
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: And like you said, if it if it actually goes
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: that way, it could be something where they're coming up
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: over the top with Olave actually hitting a ceiling day
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: at the same price, almost as all those other receivers
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: we've already talked about. If he's the one that pulls
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: away with the twenty five to thirty, that's definitely gonna
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: help a forty seven quarterback. And we know it's it's
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: it's not because he's throwing touchdowns because the only time
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: he's tried was an interception, so he's If he's getting
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: those med that many points, it's likely going to be
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: coming through Rattler. But anything else to add on that,
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: anything else you want to cover here before we get
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: to the end of it all. We got tons of time,
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: so it's gonna make sure.
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: Nope, think you nail that.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: All right, Let's go, let's see what else is in
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: the chat here. Some people talk about it. Did you
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: want to talk about this one for two seconds? I
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: know that we mentioned this spot earlier, and now you
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: can do it from an if then perspective because we
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: know we got the news Underdog and Rappaport really put
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: it out. They reposted his stuff, but just noting it,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: and they credit him, of course, but just noting it.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: Who any thoughts on Swift as leverage off him?
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think Ben Johnson deserves like a
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: massive amount of credit for what he's done to the
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: Chicago run game. He's found what works for swift swift
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: in his entire career, Like even when he was productive
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: on the ground in Philly, his like rushing yards e
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: were expected was terrible. He's just not that good of
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: a runner. He doesn't have that good a vision. He's
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: not great at making guys missing in a meaningful way.
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: But Ben Johnson, his foul works for him. That's hitting
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: the hole, like as fast as you possibly can, a
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: lot more outside zone than inside zone, more man duo
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: than inside zone, and things of that nature. So I
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: think Baltimore all season kind of has been a team
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: that they're they're almost like okay with being run on
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: and they just say, yeah, but eventually you're gonna have
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: to pass against us, and you're not going to be
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: able to do that when you need to. And so
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: I think this is one this is the spot where
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: like I could very easily see Swift getting one hundred
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: yard bonus. Again, you're gonna need him to score to
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: be really impactful, especially give in like just how good
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: these expensive running backs have been. But he makes a
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: lot of sense as leverage off of Henry. The only
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: problem with it there is, like it do we really
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: want to be betting on the Baltimore offense if Lamar
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: plays failing as a whole against a week Chicago defense.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: So I don't I don't necessarily know that. I kind
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: of feel like Swift would just be a better play
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: if Lamar isn't playing. And now it's more likely that
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Chicago is going to control the game, that their defense
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: is going to be successful, and they are going to
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: give their offense the ball on some good spots, and
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: you know their their play volume is going to be
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: better as a whole, and so Swift is going to
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: have an easier time getting to twenty carries things of
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: the nature. So I actually wrote about Swift in one
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: of my articles for FTN as a potential leverage play
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: off Henry. But the more I think about it, the
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: more I think, Man, that that's kind of a week
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: a week probability bet that the Chicago defense is going
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: to just totally shut down this, this lamar led Ravens offense.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: So I think the Swift play becomes a lot better
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: if we have no.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: M So you nailed that, and now we'll say that's
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: incredible because that was gonna be my thought right there
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: because knowing the Ravens, like I said, it's interesting. It's
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: a lot of the Dereck Henry stuff this week is
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: price based. I know, people like it's like, oh, it's
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: never been at this price, you get the big dog
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: at this price, et cetera, et cetera, all these different factors.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: But I think he's way better with Lamar in. I
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: think that was the more exciting reason why he at
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: least made some sense at six thousand with Lamar being there,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: like the Lamar and Derrick Henry together is shaking the
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: cameraman more often than anything else, Like the cameraan doesn't
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: even know who has the ball, let alone the team
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: on the field. When it's different and he was all
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: Snoop at least plays more like him, then then what's
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: the who's just in as the quarterback? They just had
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: what's his name? Rush Rush? Cooper Rush? Sorry, yeah, yeah,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Cooper doesn't really rush, That's the thing about him. And
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: so that's kind of the point there where this at
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: least could be a little bit different. But I don't
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: think anybody's mindset if we get the news after inactive
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: or on Sunday that Lamar is not playing, I don't
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: think anybody is pushing the button on swapping Derrick Henry
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: to Swift. And that would be the case to me
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: where it would actually make even more sense. And that's
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: where these game stacks could fall apart and all these
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: different factors. So that's another thing to think about when
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: you're building out. Jay asked, do we break down quarterbacks?
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: We do? Last week our leverage lane quarterback ended up
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: winning me almost forty five thousand or something. So yeah,
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: just keep in mind we're talking through the entire slate
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: on this, but we do pick our spot at the end.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: It's not always with the quarterback, but hopefully we gave
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: you a ton of quarterback doots throughout this show and
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: this I shout up to my guy Sean always here
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: appreciating I appreciate his support, but just noting he's not
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: the first to mention this. I think this is the
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: last thing we at least need to touch on before
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: we go to our lanes. And if it's you're laying again,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but I don't think this is chasing the
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: mim stuff. I just think people like what they saw
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: from bon Nick's last week. But he's most certainly up there.
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: I think he's top three in quarterback ownership as it's.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not going back to Marvin Mims this week.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: I made the case for Marvin Mims last week, and
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: it was very dependent on the way the Giants played
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: the events. A lot of single high, a lot of
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: man a lot of blitzing. We don't get that in
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: this matchup from Dallas. Now, Dallas has been vulnerable deep
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: they if you look at like their deep passing loutsats,
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: they still look really really bad. They still look really
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: really vulnerable in that way. But if you take out
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: Week two against Russell Wilson in the League Neighbors, they
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: actually look pretty good now. So they to me like
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: they have addressed the issue and they have at least
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: fixed it to some degree where it's no longer a
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: great deep passing matchup against them, and the style of
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: coverage they play just don't fit Marvin Mims as well
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: as they fit Troy. Franklin actually is actually like the
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: Denver guy that I like the most this week, which
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: is not great for Bonnix, I think, because when Knicks
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: has those huge games, like Franklin is the kind of
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: possession receiver he's going to have eight for eighty in
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: his biggest game. I want bon Knicks when it's Marvin
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: Mims and when it's Courtland something that I expect to
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: really produce, because that's when you get the you know,
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: six for one, twenty and a touchdown, the explosive play
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: kind of dynamic that really takes bon Nix where you
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: need him to get. Now, the flip side of that
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: is with bon Nicks, at least you always have the
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: rushing upside. And one of the things I really liked,
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: like I think a really encouraging sign for his fantasy
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: success moving forward is that game winning touchdown twenty one
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: yard run that was a designed run. That wasn't a scramble,
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: it was a designed run. I think in these like
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: key leverage situations, they really know that they have that
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: skill set in him and they're going to lean into that.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: So he only has you know, rushes of eight, six, five,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: five so far this year, so he's not He's not
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: ever going to give you the rushing attempts in the
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: rushing vallume that you get from Alan Hurtz Lamar, so
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: on and so forth. But you're going to see that
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: at least in the shootout style games, and so that way,
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: I think you could absolutely see a ceiling for Nicks.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: My biggest issue with him is, even if you get
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: the ceiling performance from bone Knicks, does he give you
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: a ceiling performance from any of his wide receivers. And
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: that to me is the biggest obstacle in the stack.
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: I just don't see it. I also don't really want
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: any of these cowboys, like I know someone in my
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: discord made the point that, hey, this is one of
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: the highest totals on the year, or one of the
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: highest totals of the week. Sure, but even though Dallas
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: has a high team total relative the rest of the slate,
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: they're implied for less than a touchdown or more than
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: a touchdown, less than they have averaged this season. So
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: even though it's a nice total, the implication is that
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: their guys aren't going to match their season long you know,
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: standard production. So I'm not interested in Dallas guys. So
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: I don't want to bring back. I don't really know
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: who bon Nick would bring with him. Detroit frank Franklin
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: have enough of a ceiling to play him with Nicks,
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: so I like Nix in a vacuum. I just don't
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: like anyone else in the game, so I won't be sacking.
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, a good, good breakdown. I think, you know, there
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: is some interest in the other side of it, Like
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I get where people are going with this total, with
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: this game, seeing what Nicks did last week, how bad
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys have been. I know they got some pieces back,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: but then they lost Diggs again and in that second
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: hear they got Bland back. He had his like his
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: fifth or six pick six or something again, like a
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: guy just keeps going off that way. But yeah, it's
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: harder to get it right. There is more options. They're
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: mixing other guys in too on the Denver side, but
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: you can just play Nicks. He's six K, and I
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: think in cash games people will likely now get to
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: more of the Jalen Hurt stuff based on the information
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: only six hundred bucks more So, I think Nix would
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: become a tournament play. You could play Dobbins and the
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: Broncos do something like that if you want to get
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: after it this way and say that's how they're gonna
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: get their points. I definitely think the tournament's somewhat interesting
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: that way. I will give rants a little secret, don't
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: tell everybody, but every game has been a must win
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: for the Ravens and they're not winning them, so just
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: to so you know, I don't that changes anything when
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: it comes to this week. Jay Maine said it here.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: I'm a huge Ravens fan if anybody doesn't know, and
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: it has not been good, and I don't know if
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: it will be that much better this week. We'll see
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: if Lamar is back. Obviously, think there's a chance the
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: one thing I was holding out for Alex. I know
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: we don't know how to do our Homer takes on here,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: but I was hoping that Lamar would come back. The
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: ANFC North is still in shambles, and so it's always
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: wide open, and like, the last thing you want to
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: see is the Ravens start to win games for the
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: AFC North. That is, I want to see it very badly,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: get healthy, get better, and then start to heat up
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: as the playoffs come around, because then it's one and
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: done and that's what makes the NFL so exciting when
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: we get down the stretch. But I definitely think that's
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: the thing. So what else do we got here? Anything else?
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've done something else on Lamar.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: This is a narrative, but just to note it leverage wise,
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: that would be another way to play this game differently.
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: He's not getting much ownership.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I have no interest there. The Denver
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: defense is too good. He's just priced too high at
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: this point. You know, he's he's one of those going
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: like I'd be interested if he was fifty nine hundred,
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: and I still wouldn't be that interested just because he's not.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: He's not one of those guys that has a massive ceiling.
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: You kind of need the three touchdown game, you know
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: he had. He had a two touchdown game one hundred
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: thirty yards against the Jets. That's the Jets. So I
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: think most of the time we're going to see a
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: true ceiling for him is twenty four to twenty five
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: and at at sixty eight hundred dollars, like I want
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: the guy who can get me thirty one. Last thing
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: on Lamar, he practiced fully yesterday, so I'm not as
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: concerned as Rappaport. It seems to be that he's running
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: scout team. Like they might say, Okay, we saw enough
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: of him yesterday. Let's just give him like an easy day,
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: keep him a little bit active. But even if he plays,
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: it's a hamstring injury. Do we know that he's one
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: hundred percent? Can we expect him to go out and
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: run as freely and as often as he usually does.
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: That gives him that kind of you know, insane ceiling,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: insane upside. I kind of think not so. I I
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: kind of am in the boat that I hope he
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: plays because I I think it just it makes for
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: a better slay. It gives us these like massive, massive
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: leverage spots that I feel pretty good about this week,
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: like a lot of you know, I think one of
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: the themes of this year so far has been that
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: the chalk. It's not that the chalk is hitting more
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: often than usual. I think, like from my own numbers,
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: it's hitting about as often as usual. The difference is
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: when it's hit this year, it's hit in like a
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: way where you kind of needed it, whereas in past
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: years there's been a lot of Okay, well the chalk
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: didn't fail, but you were also totally fine if you
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: didn't use it. You could have had any of these
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: contrarian guys and I'll produce it where the chalk this
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: year is kind of giving you the scores that you
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: need more often than it has in the past, but
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: it's just not hitting more often than it has in
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: the past. This feels like a week to me where
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: the chalk is more fragile than it's been. I think
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: that we're going to see chalk fail more this week
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: than we have so far this year, and uh, and
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: we're going to be rewarded for these fades more this
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: week than we have so far this season. Hope, of course,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: I could be totally wrong and all this truck could
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: hit in the way that you needed as well. But
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: that's kind of my read on this slate. If we
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: get Lamar and so I hope they plays.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: I think we're seeing it clearly. I feel really good
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: about this, and that's a good spot to lead into
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: our leverage lane. And I gotta go first because I
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: think you could there's a chance you never know, you've
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: used this one before, so I kind of got to
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: go there first, and then you're good at adjusting on
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: the fly. I'm not. I'm a very prepared, organized spot.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: So I think this is the way I want to
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: do it. So one guy we left out, and I
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: left him on on purpose because it was going to
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: be for this. People know how I play. You gave
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: some amazing stats with real sample size. It was either
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: last week or the week before with these high owned
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: wide receivers. I think it was the week Puka was
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: crushing and everyone was surprised he was crushing at his
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: price tag. The week before the injury was the week
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: you did this. Actually, there is a receiver on this
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: slate that is going to be very high owned. That
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: is as much as everyone says, Oh, they made the
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: pricing tighter. They made the pricing correct. I'm gonna keep
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: using this. My guy Whop used it yesterday. I love
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: it on the running backs. They did not make the
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: pricing correct on Jamar Chase this week. Yet I don't
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: see many people playing Joe Flacco, and Joe Flacco is
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: a seasoned vet. Going back to my Raven stuff, elite.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: I've backed him up for years. One thing, if you
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: don't have to believe he's elite, he was at the time,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: by the way in playoffs, specifically he had a crazy
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: record going in, went on to win the Super Bowl,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: et cetera. But don't have to stick up for him
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: anymore for that stuff. He has an elite mind, and
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: the way his mind works is just throw it to
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: the guy that's your best receiver and you might have success.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: And when that happens and you get an actual slate
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: breaking ceiling slate like we got out of the original
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: week when I had the Stafford Pooka Adams week, That's
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: what I'm seeing here again. And so putting Joe Flacco
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: with Jamar Chase and even putting T Higgins into the
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: mix as well, I think he is going to stick
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: to those guys. I think it's a game script independent
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: whether they're up or down. I see that as being
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: the way. I think that's gonna be how it goes
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: this week. So my leverage lane is going to be
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco Jamar Chase, and it's to be determined. So
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: I'll leave him out of this. Like last week I
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: went Herbert and Jonathan Taylor. I'm gonna use the two
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: of them. I'm gonna slice the dice Jamar Chase with
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: Joe Flacco. I think a lot more people are finding
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: the money to spend up to Nick's hurts Lamar if
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: he plays, etcetera, etcetera, you name it, and moving it
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: all around. I feel like this is the best spot.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: They have almost a twenty six point team total at home,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: playing the lowly Jets missing all their pieces. I think
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: they're gonna do it here. So I got Joe Flacco,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, what do you got? What do you think?
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: And what do you got?
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: I really like that. I was worried when you first
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: started saying it because I thought that our leverage lanes
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: might be like directly contradicting, But now they actually work
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: together pretty well. I'm going to give two, because my
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: first one is I think two close to yours. My
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: first one is T Higgins doing. The reason I say
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: T Higgins is because you can play him in two ways.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: You can either do exactly what you said, use T
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: Higgins in the Flacco doubles. You can also use T
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: Higgins just to leverage the forty massive price tag Jamar Chase. Now,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: I think I agree with you that, like if though
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: it's a really big price tag on Chase, it's not
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: necessarily high enough eighty one hundred dollars when we have
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: ninety five hundred, nine thousand, and eighty eight hundred for Taylor,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: McCaffrey and Bjeon. Like if you look at our projections
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: over at FTN, Taylor, McCaffrey, bejon all project better than
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase has the higher ceiling projection than
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: all three of those guys. Kind of the nature of
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: the position. It's also the nature of Jamar Chase. So
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: I agree with you he's under price, but it is
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: still a really big price tag eighty one hundred dollars
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: compared to fifty six for T. Higgins. So Higgins works
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: in both these ways. But like the key for me.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: The volume has been awesome for Jamar Chase. It's also
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: been awesome for T Higgins. Eight for sixty two against
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: Green Bay followed by ten targets for ninety six and
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: a touchdown against Pittsburgh. Higgins is being targeted a lot
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: as well, and it's we're going to get a game.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: You know, every single season we see with Chase there
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: are games where teams have a very effective game plan
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: against him and they sell out to stop him. We're
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: also seeing now like a very predictive route tree for
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: Jamar Chase where the vast majority of his stuff is
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: less than ten yards. He does have a couple downfield shots,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: especially on the sideline towards the end zone, and so like,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: I think maybe they're going to set up some double
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: move stuff for him. But if you put someone underneath
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: an inside of Chase, I think you can you can
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: take away a lot of what he's doing. The only
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: way you can do that, though, is if you let T.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: Higgins get someone on one opportunity. So I think when
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: we see Chase finally have I'm not even saying he fails,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: but when he finally has a game where it's seven
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: for ninety and no touchdowns. I think that comes when
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: t Higgins goes seven for one hundred and ten and
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: two touchdowns or something like that. Right, So when Chase
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: has an underwhelming game, I think Higgins is going to
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: have that ceiling game. You can also, though, play it
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: exactly the way you said, Jope Higgins does what he
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: did last week and Chase does what he did last week,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: and the double stack is golden better off with Higgins
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: in the double than you would have been with just
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: a single with Chase. So lots of ways to play that.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: And then the second one just because I think that's
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit too close to your leverage lane. Is
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: that Josh Allen sack that we talked about, Josh Allen,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: Ted McMillan, Donkin Kaid leveraging both Hurts and Lamar stacks.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: I will be more likely to play that if we
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: don't have or if we do have Lamar playing. But
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: I also think it still works because even if even
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: if you're only then leveraging the Philly stack like, you're
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: still getting almost as much leverage because I think the
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: Philly stack is going to take them on the ownership
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: of itself and Lamar stacks if we don't have Lamar
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: so two leverage lanes for me to Higgins instead of
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: Jamar Chase and the Josh Allen game stack.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, i might bold it up a little bit and
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: say I'm gonna run all three. That's what I'm committing to.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: You don't need a run back. If you do, I
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: get it. Like some people mentioned National tight End Day
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: with Taylor, assuming he plays on the other side, he
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: is the same price as Dalton Schultz, I believe, who's
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: super popular there for good reason. He's two hundred bucks
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: more or something, So you could do that. But yeah,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna bump it up and say I'm gonna just
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: play all three of them and run it that way
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: and hope it gets spreaded enough. The one last thing
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: I'll say on Jamar Chase is it's been like a
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: constant over the last couple of weeks, like people can
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: do whatever they want to do and try to do
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of things. We said it for Gadson the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: other night. Oh you know, he doesn't have to do
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: what he did the game before that, as long as
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: he does something and he goes off again. We've said
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: it about Rico Daudo for multiple weeks. Oh, he doesn't
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: need to get two hundred again, as long as he
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: just does something two hundred again. Another good game. If
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: they would have not ran Chubah Howard for one point
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: eight yards per carry, could have been even more.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: So.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: They had to find out though, and they had to
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: get that proved first. But either way, people just constantly
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: want to say someone can't do it again. Go to
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: the casino for me, stand by the rule at table
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: and tell me it can't be read again. After you
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: see six reds, it happens, So it definitely can happen again.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: And I think this is a spot we could see it.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: It's really hard to control Jamar Chase anything else. You've
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: got to go ahead.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there was, there was something I had oh on
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: the way back from Cincinnati Stacks. I think Breesce Hall's
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: the guy. And one of the main reasons I say
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: that is because I think they're they're actually two cheap stacks.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: I'll just throw this in there that I have a
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: little bit of interest in. Tyrod Taylor is one, cam
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: Ward is the other. I know cam Ward is an
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: absolutely discussing idea. If if you want to hear more
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: about why I cam Woard jump into my discord. But
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: the Tyrod stuff I think is especially interesting because you
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: could play like Tyrod Mason Taylor. I even saw a
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: couple stacks were simming well for us. It was like
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: you can use both Chase Ann Higgins been the rushing
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: for Tyrod actually mean the rushing and the savings of
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Tyrod makes it where like you could do some single
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: stuff there. So if I were using the Flacco side,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: I'd want to have something on the way back that
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: says Flanco crushes but Tyrod does not. And the main
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: way that happens if Breescee Hall has a couple of
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns and keeps Tyrod off the board. That way,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: so I think black Chase Higgins Breece Hall is a
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: really really sharp way to go.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably have some of that because obviously this
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: is my single and mixing it in, but I will
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: I'd argue both ways on it, because one is like
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: the Tyrod said, if you clearly believe it and others
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: are saying and people see it, the Tyrod can push
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: this game enough, then yes, it could be it could
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: end up being like Tyrod, Jamar and Higgins like instead
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: of Flacco. But like, how many people are gonna have that.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: That's like when people say double to your point of
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, if like double tight end never hits, well,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: if one percent play it, you're not gonna see it
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: very often either. How many people are gonna play that? Nobody?
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: And I probably still have like eight points or six
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: points less with Flacco in that range, but maybe it's
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: more and he beats him. But as long as you
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: think someone can push it, it still then matters of
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: how you're building out the entire stack. The other thought
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: would be breeze halls one hundred bucks more than Henry,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: So maybe there's something you could do there with a
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: you know, a pivot spot. But I'll just say that
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: as long as you think the other side can push it,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: and many don't. But then again, the numbers kind of
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: bear out that they can. Their team totals almost twenty
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: in this spot for the Jets. That's what excites me.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: I think what people misconstrue this, You do need someone
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: to push the Flacco side to make this work, one
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: hundred percent agree. Do you need to force figuring it
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: out in a single entry and trying to pick that spot?
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: You do not, And that's the factor that I want
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: to land with my point at the end. So I
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: like your call. I think I'll get there in my
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: MM sets because I'm obviously going more places than one
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: with this, but I'm committed to it in the single
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: entry stuff, and I think the end of the day
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: things can change this week because of the way the
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: slate could change with that news with Lamar, but I'm
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: assuming right now we still see him. Hopefully we do.
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: And I still like a lot of this regardless, so
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: I'm probably not moving off this anyway, but I'm definitely
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: committed to bulking it up with the double. You don't
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: need a jet, but if you want one, he mentioned it,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: Breesse Mason Taylor, however you want to go about it,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: Josh Reynolds, if he plays, who knows. It could be anybody,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: but that's what I'm saying. It's really hard to figure
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: that out, and so that's definitely something they're in tournaments. Sorry,
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: it's all related to terterms that's in MME or if
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: you're playing like one hundred and fifty, if we're bulking
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: out your portfolio, then yes, I think, like obviously just
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: that you will see sharper players that have Chase Brown.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: The matchup is good on the ground. If if you
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: don't think the Jets can push it, this could be
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: the way the game just goes that the Bengals do
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: get this, and this would significantly leverage Jamar Chase because
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: nobody's really using Chase Brown in a running back position
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: that has so many good options this week and a
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: lot more of those lineups are using Jamar Chase. So
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: it's kind of interesting our leverage lane. At the end,
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: we still get to talk about it some more possible
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: leverage for this slate. Any final thoughts from you, Alex
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: and if not, if so, let the people know where
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: they can find you either way at.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: Alex booka one on Twitter. That's all I got and
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: you know you can find everything you need FTN if
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: you if you want the data that I use, like
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: all the stats up stuff, And obviously my link to
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: my discord is there as well. A lot of a
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: lot of leverage lane watchers have joined the discord. They
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: seem to really enjoy it. So if you've been kind
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: of talking around, remember promo code leverage gets your ten
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: percent off forever, So I use that one as well.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: Awesome good stuff again, this week. Man love breaking the
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: show down with you. It's typically turned into like an
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: hour and fifteen minutes, which I don't mind because I
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: think it's all good. The people seem to like it.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: There's a lot that comes out. We get to talk
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: about a ton of different things and it really sets
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: myself up and I'm sure the same for you and
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: many listeners where you can get yourself in a good
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: headspace going into Sunday while you wait on that final
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: news myself, hoop and title. We'll be back here tomorrow
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern same time this show started for
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: all the final thoughts of the week with those updates
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: leading up to the inactives, and then if you find
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: me on Twitter at or x at Totag and Tambo,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: you can use the code ship nineteen at ship at
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: nation dot com to get in. It gets you five
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: days for nineteen dollars on any Core or Starter monthly
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: all access that includes saverer simps. It's the best way
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: to check it out. Thank you guys so much for watching.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for the week eight edition of
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: Leverage Lane for Alex, for myself, Totag and Tambo led
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: ship it