Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Best Bets Super Bowl LVIII

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Best Bets Super Bowl LVIII · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. I
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: am Chad Milnin, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Super Bowl Best Bets Episode, our
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: final episode before Super Bowl fifty eight. In this episode,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Simon and I will run down our final list of
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: bets for the Big Game because, as our road pal
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Colin Coward, who I saw last night, likes to say,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Later in the show, we'll be joined once again and
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: as always by Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: who we use the data and research to help us
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: set the stage one last time. Also, I'd be real
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: a miss if I did not think and if Simon
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: and I did not thank all of our viewers and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: listeners for fueling our explosive growth this football season. No joke,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie me and Mett Mitchell. Simon a
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: little bit less so because he's super confident, had a
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: lot of ogita and concern about what this is was
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: going to look like with going on YouTube live new shows,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: and it was a fantastic experience fueled by everybody who
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: came along for the ride. Quick programming note after today's show,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: the Favorites will release new episodes on Tuesdays only for
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the next couple of months, mainly focused on NFL offseason,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: NFL free agency, NFL Draft, how we are going to
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: bet those numbers for the draft, how we are thinking
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: about NFL free agency, how that is impacting our opinions
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: of teams moving forward. We'll probably have a contest or
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: to be sure to stick around. Let's bring in my
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my BFF professional
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter et oh.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Sim Happy Super Bowl Week, Chad brother.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I'm in Vegas. I'm in a hotel room in Vegas.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You're wearing your Tombolo shirt. Thanks to Michael Sard from
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Tombolo for sending us both uh Tompolo Tombolo swag, which
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: we love and it's so cool. Simon, I know you
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: were in Vegas last week. You lived in Vegas. I
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: when I was writing The Odds, you know, twenty five
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: years ago, the book that got me into the sports
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: betting biz, I practically lived here. I'm staying at the
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Mirage Hotel because one of the main characters in the book.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Joe Lupo is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: Thanks Joe hooking me up with a sweet, sweet sweet.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: But as I was driving around the city yesterday, it's
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: just astonishing to me. I wonder if you feel the
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: same way like the Super Bowl is in Vegas. This
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: is an entirely different experience for someone like me who
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: has been coming to Vegas for years, knowing there was
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: always something a little illicit when it came to its
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: connection to the sports world.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I just never never would have believed it. I
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: always believe there was too much mafia money and that
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: the sports teams like the NFL and NBA and all
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: these different leagues were scared of Las Vegas.
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: But we've seen the change.
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: Right as soon as they got a football team in
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: the hockey team, the wheels were in motion, you know.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: League glized sports meting obviously has changed the demographic a lot,
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: but still the NFL is so scared of every little thing.
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: I never thought they would do it.
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: But I guess the joke is, if they can survive
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: or Super Bowl in Miami, Vegas, isn't that bad, right?
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: It's really not.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: So that's a fair point that everyone pointing that out,
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: but I love it.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: It's it's like.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: You said, Chad, when you go there, it's different because
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: you've been there and you've lived there, and it's just
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: if you've never been there and you're going for your
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: first time for the super Bowl, you were probably gonna
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: be blown away.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: But honestly, I think you know this. You can go
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: on a random march and it.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: Feels like super Bowl is always there, right, There's always
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: stuff going on, there's always some big events. But me
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: and you talk before coming on seeing them set up
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: all these stages, like in front of these hotels and
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: in all these different areas, it's like it really does
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: sinking where it's like, oh my god, the super Bowl
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: is in Las Vegas, Like this is really bizarre. So
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: it's it's definitely changed my mindset of never say never
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: because I never never thought there would be a super
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: Bowl in Las Vegas, and this disproves that. It's like,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: if there's money to be made, the NFL will go there.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Well, that's number one. Number two, you know. When I
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: came out and did the the subtitle of the odds
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: was one season three Gamblers and the Death of their
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas. The idea was, it was nineteen ninety nine,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: two thousand and these guys, if you want to be
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: a professional better, if you want to do what you did,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: you could really only do it legitimately from Las Vegas.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: You had to you had to go to the books,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: have runners, bring your cash drive all over town. They
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: were starting to be able to do accounts through the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: phones and stuff like that, but offshore was creeping in
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: right and now all of a sudden, what's happened is
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: sports betty became legal. Nevada is not even top three
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: when it comes to handle overall for sports betting. It's
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: dominated by New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, other places. And
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: the death of their Las Vegas really translated to the
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: birth of Las Vegas as a legitimate sports city. Because
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: now you got the Raiders, you got the Golden Knights,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: You're getting the A's. They'll be an NBA team, They
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: do NBA Summer League here. So what everything is lost
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: from being sort of the mecca of sports betting, it's
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: gained in being a world class professional sports city. I
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: think it's probably a better trade off for them because
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: he can still gamble with the books if you want to.
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think they cleaned up the image right
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: like Vegas what you when you saw, I never saw,
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: which is that was truly the last of the old
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: school in Vegas. Like you know, I knew plenty of people.
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: I knew Doyle Brunson. If you don't know Duyle Brunson,
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: he's a really famous poker player. Hearing him talk about
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: the old days in Vegas, it was truly the wild West.
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: And things start changing obviously through the eighties and the nineties.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: You saw that last right, that last age where the Internet,
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: to me is what changed Vegas completely.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: Now the joke is if you go to Vegas and
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: your sports better, it's like stepping back in time because
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: they are now behind these other states just because they're
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: slow to change. I mean, Vegas is slow to change,
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: so they are getting better if you're a sports better.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: But it's still you know, I know plenty of guys
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: who unless you're over the age of fifteen, you've lived
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: in Vegas for thirty or twenty years. I know plenty
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: of people have left, but there's new age people moving there,
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: like our own doctor Nick. There's always gonna be these young,
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: hungry guys who want to move there because it is
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: a life chat, right, I mean, it is the life
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: of living in that city.
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: We joked about you.
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: Once you're in Vegas, there's nothing around you for about
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: an hour and a half like you're in Vegas, right,
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: So if you're moving there, you're moving there because you
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: want to gamble.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Right Well, speaking of betting, I will not make a
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: single bet in Vegas because I'm not running around to
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: different books, right. It's too much of a pain to
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: deposit in books than go bet on your phone. I'll
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: just wait until I'm back in Connecticut. We're going to
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: talk about all the bets that we've made so far
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: for this game, and our best bets will finalize our
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: decisions on the side. As a reminder of the favorites.
• 7:50
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• 8:36
  Speaker 1: whole menu of bets that we are actually making for
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: the game. These could be sides, props, totals, anything we
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: are thinking about betting for the game. That is what
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about right now, Simon. We got
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: to start with the side, because you know, I'm walking
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: around the media center yesterday and it's so funny go
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: in the media center and everybody wants to know which
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: side are you betting on? And I had a long
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: conversation with our old friend Tom Tolbert. Tom Tolbert, who
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: has been on the podcast many times, who played in
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the NBA broadcaster for many years, hosts a very popular
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: afternoon show at K and BR in San Francisco. Huge
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: gambler loves to talk about gambling, So I'm on CANBR yesterday.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: I saw Tom and one on the show and we're
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: talking about the side, and I'm like, here's the thing,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know that there's that grade of an edge
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: in the side. The best to make aren't the sides
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: at the Super Bowl? Like, and to Tom's point, was,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: you're right, like, if I looked at this game as
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: a week five game, I might not even bet it
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: because I might not find an edge. So we're going
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: to talk about the side. Are you still feeling very
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: strongly about the Chiefs?
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but I think you're right where it's like, it's
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: not like there's crazy value here.
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: I made the line on one and a half. We're
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: getting how a point.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: But I told you if if, even if my model
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: wanting me to take the forty nine ers, I just
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: wasn't gonna do it. And you know, I've I've heard
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: plenty of people's opinions like you have all week. I mean,
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: it's never ending the amount of opinions you hear super
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: Bowl week. But yeah, it feels like anybody you talk
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: to right, Any Joe schmol you talk to, they like
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs, and any professional you talk to, they like
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers, and it's deja vu with the Ravens.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: The Ravens Chiefs game, isn't it.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: It's just like it felt like every pro I talked
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: to loved the Ravens, and it's I feel like they're
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: just dug in at this point and even trying to
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: reason with these guys about why they're.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: Still trying to fade Mahomes. I get where they're coming from.
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: It's like, on paper, they're a great team, this forty
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: nine Ers team Rock Party has ascended. I mean, this
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: guy has been incredible, especially on this playoff run. You know,
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: I totally get their perspective, but nothing to make me
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: budg Chad, like I mean you joked about it. Mahomes
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: has cost me a lot of money this playoffs. And
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: again I'm not chasing on this like this is only
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: one of my bigger bets on the side because, like
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: you said, there's no real value. And that's also something
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: we haven't really talked about. I mean, we'll dive into
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: it maybe this offseason, but the Super Bowl has shifted
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: since they've legalized sports betting, right, the last big number
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: we had was pre legalization. I think the Eagles were
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: opened at six and a half, closed at four and
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: a half.
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: Then what do we happen?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: That was the first year of legalization and so it
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: hadn't gone wide yet. I remember because when we launched
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Action and I remember going on radio shows all over
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: the country talking about how everyone who's a professional better
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: is going to bet the Eagles. They are the side
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: to bet in this game, and you're right. Ever since then,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: it's tightened up.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and like same with I mean, we had a
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: big spread the SINCI game, and obviously that spread didn't matter, right.
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: It opened at three and a half. A bunch of
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: pro slammed the Rams at three and a half, miss
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: structure point the number of lands on three. So we
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: have seen them come down though, like longer gone are
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: the days of right the Giants ore they had ten
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: twelve point dog against the Patriots that undefeated season, and
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: you know, the Patriots their first Super Bowl with Belichick,
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: I believe they were a ten or eleven point dog
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: to that Rams team. I don't think we ever get
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: back to that, Chad, I really don't where it's like
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: the books know how it is nowadays, where it's like,
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: there we go from our guy Evan fifteen straight super
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: Bowls under five points. So clearly there's there's been a
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: change herehere. We just haven't had these big spreads like
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: we did in the early mid two thousands all through
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: the nineties and eighties. The books just know it's not
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: worth the risk, especially when you have all these future liability,
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: which we talked about earlier in the week where some
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: of these books are getting tons of Chiefs money, they
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: still need the Chiefs because the liability is so heavy.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: On the forty nine ers futures.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: That's why people are like, why don't you worried about
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: don't you like to back with the books and.
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: Everything like that. I'm like, from book to book, everyone,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be very different, especially when it comes to
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl. I mean, Chad knows this. The fat money's
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: flying in this weekend.
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: We've already seen a hand full of five hundred k
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: one million dollar bets right on this forty nine Ers team.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: People keep asking, is that professional money? Is that Billy Walters?
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: No, No, that is not okay, that's that's your local
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: player where they when they put online it's a local
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: respected player that's eleven. That's that's a that's a money
• 13:16
  Speaker 4: maker for these different sports books. So yeah, it's it's
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: pretty interesting. The biggest bets we've seen so far have
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: coming to the forty nine ers, But I don't think
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: it's that shocking. Me and you talked about we think
• 13:25
  Speaker 4: they are the better team. We just think the Mahomes
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: and the Spags combo is pretty deadly. Like that defense,
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: we keep talking about it. It really is to me
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: what I keep getting behind, and we keep talking about
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: the different looks you can give to this forty nine
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: ers team defensively to make them struggle like we've seen
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: the last couple of weeks that the forty iris defense
• 13:45
  Speaker 4: has struggled against the past. So I really did try
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: to give us a fair look because I didn't want
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: to just bet bet Mahomes just because I was so
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: upset about losing money against it. I really wanted to
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: dive into it, and you know, coming out the other
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: it's like, I do feel confident about the Chiefs team.
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: I feel confid about the Chief's number and if this
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: is a close, tight game in the fourth quarter, which
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: mean you expect it will be. I feel pretty good, Chad,
• 14:10
  Speaker 4: and that's why I feel confident betting this where it's like,
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: even if we do lose this bet, which we know
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: is always a possibility, especially on a tight number like this,
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to kick myself where if I take party,
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: I will be kicking myself for six months going against
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: my homes Andy Reid in this spot.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: So I totally get why this is such a tough decision.
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: Why, I mean, you joke, why it's like, yeah, this
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: isn't the greatest value ever. I'm not slamming the table
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: saying you have to take this one side just because
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: it's so tight. And that's just the toughest part here
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: where it's like I wish I could come on here
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: and be super confident and be like no, no, no,
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: this is exactly what's going to happen. This is why
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: you're playing the side. But both these teams are so
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: evenly matched. I totally get why people are taking the
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: other side. It's just you can't take talk me off
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: the chiefs. I just love taking the Chiefs, especially at
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: a plus number.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: So, speaking of big bets, big money and all that
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: rolling in when I went to check in yesterday at
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the Mirage, there's like a special sort of room you
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: go to check in if you're on a certain like
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: VIP status, which I normally wouldn't be because but Joe
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: is hooking me up. I go to this room, right
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: and when I check in, this is the kind of
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: room I'm in. They automatically ask you what kind of
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: line of credit would you like me to open for you?
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: It's not even like will you be opening a line
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: of credit to what kind of line of credit? And
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: then literally as I'm standing there, a dude walks in.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: He's like, I've already opened two fifty, I'm down one hundred.
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I need I need to extend it another hundred. He
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: had been there for thirty five minutes, he hadn't even
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: checked into his room, and he was already down one
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: hundred grand from the line of credit had set up
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: before he got to the hotel. A couple of important stats,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: But that's the kind of money that's going to be
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: flowing in this weekend in Vegas for these games, for
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl in Vegas, and that will have an
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: impact on the line for sure. Right now, seventy percent
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: of spread tickets are on Kansas City. Sixty eight percent
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: is the record for the Super Bowl. Only two teams
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: had sixty six percent or higher. Twenty nineteen New England
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: they covered against the Rams, twenty fourteen Denver lost to Seattle. Also,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: teams that are getting fifty five percent or more of
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: tickets as an underdog four to zero against the spread
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. The record for underdogs getting tickets
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: on the spread is sixty percent, which was two thousand
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: and eight Giants who pulled the upset. So just a
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: couple more hints and trends. The other thing I talked
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: about with Tolbert yesterday. I thought it was interesting, and
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: this has come up a lot. You look at the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: Niners over a seventeen game season, better metrics, better team overall,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: better performance. You look at, say, the Chiefs the past
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: five weeks, better metrics, dominant team, better performance against much, much,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: much better competition. As a handicapper, as a bookmaker, how
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: much do you account or change your numbers at this
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: point in the year when one team is outperforming the
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: other team so much versus taking to account the entirety
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: of the season.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: Honestly, nothing really changed that much other than I gave
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: an imaginary extra point to Mahomes No Joe, like, I
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: just gave him another point of value because it's just
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: you can't it. Really, my model just doesn't get it.
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: And that was my issue. It's just like I can't
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: get over how special he is. And it's just the
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: Tom Brady effect, right, It's just these guys they break
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: the models in and you have to adjust, and then
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: you factor in what you talked about where it's like,
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: even if you go back twenty games, spags defense, this
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: is one of my favorite stats.
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: I'm stealing from someone else. I wish I could give
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: them credit.
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: But twenty games, his defense is only giving up twenty
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: one points or more three times. So clearly, even with
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: a very young defense, this guy is getting the best
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: out of it. And then you just talk about we
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: go through this playoffs. Their last three games, they shut
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: down Miami, one of the best offense we've ever seen. Okay,
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: factor in weather, Okay, no problem. They shut down Josh Allen,
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: who is in god Mo. Like again, if Diggs could
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: figure out how to catch again, maybe it's a different story.
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: But that's what happened, right. They made the place. There
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: were drops, but one of the best quarterbacks you've ever seen.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: They stopped them the MVP on the road, Lamar, they
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: made him look stick functional, they made him go back
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: to revert back to being a scared rookie out of Louisville,
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: Like he just looked completely lost, not the Lamar we've
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: seen for years. So it's like, I totally get where
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: people are coming from trying to be on the four
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: other side. But I just keep going back to these
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: games and watching the film. It is glaring me watch
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: the film that you know, people keep bringing up this week, Well,
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: Purty's new Russian ability.
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: It's like, didn't they just beat one of the best
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: running quarterbacks in all football?
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: And Lamar and the second best and Josh Allen. It's like,
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: I get where they're coming from. They're trying to find
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: angles to take this four NS team, but it's just
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: Spags just has the answer all along. So yeah, it's
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: just it is crazy diving into the numbers chat where
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: it's like, you know, that's what this week, these two
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: weeks you're all about, right, You're trying to really get
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: into every little thing. And the FY nine ers team
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: I think are proceeds much better to the general public
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: than they are to people breaking down film and really
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: dive into the numbers on this team where it's like
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: they are good, they do have a bunch of cracks
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: in this team, like they do have weaknesses on this defense,
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: and then offensively it is all there where it's like, yeah,
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: we know they have all the best weapons, they don't
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: have one of the best lines of football, right, Like
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: that is a thing that they've struggled right past. Blocking
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: is not their strengths. So there are things that you know,
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs are gonna able to take advantage of it.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: At the end of the day, it's all going to
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: come down to Purty is prettying able to make these
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: plays because I feel like, you know, everything I read
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: from these beat writers from the Kansas City, the number
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: one goal is not to let McCaffrey get going. Like
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: everyone it seems like it talks about it. That's the goal,
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: right They don't want McCafferty to be the workhorse in
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: this game. So that's shifted my thought a lot, because
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: I really wanted to bet a lot of McCaffrey's overs.
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: You know, that's pretty interesting that that's really their mindset
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: of no again, not here to shoot on purty, but
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: they want pretty to beat them. They don't want McCaffrey
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: to beat them, and I think that's really going to
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: be their identity for this defensive style.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I think, finally for us on the side, it comes
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: down to Mahomes, it comes down to Spagnola and his
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: ability to make adjustments, and honestly, for me, it comes
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: down to the defense the Niners play, which is predominantly zone,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: which is the perfect matchup form of Homes and Steve
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: wilks inability or stubbornness when it comes to making adjustments
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: from that zone defense. So that's why we like the Chiefs.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: What are your other biggest bets for the game.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: Right now?
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: My biggest altogether bet is the under. Like it's just
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: at this point the tickets have added up where this
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: is by far.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: My biggest bet at sim and close.
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: I might get there though with the Chiefs, Like again,
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: we've seen some more two and a halfs pop up.
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: If they give me a three, I guarantee you if
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: a three pops again, the Chiefs wind up being bigger
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: than me taking a total here just because.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I would agree by the way, I feel like it
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: might get there. There's a couple of books two and a.
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: Half, right, And it's again it's all about liability to people.
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: If they if they keep getting four and niners money
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: and they're heaving forty nine ers futures, they will give
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: us the three. And that's I've been very patient with
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: it where it's I'm not forcing so many on the
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: two and a half. Where you know, when the more
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: public books in all of America as the two and
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: a half, they wouldn't take my money. So I've had
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: to use a couple other books to try to get
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: that number. But yeah, this is this is really you know,
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: a game of who's gonna budget first? Like it just
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: I'm just waiting for the for the big money to
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: come in like we talked about this weekend and hopefully
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: get us up to three. So I tried to be
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: very patient. But yeah, the under nothing's changed my confidence
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: on that. It's just I like the number. I like
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: the spot, the fact that it is forty seven and
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: a half, forty eight a couple of books. It's not shocking, right,
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: we talk all the time. The public likes do bet over,
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: especially in the Super Bowl. You know last year.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: We talked all week it just felt like that was
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: an easy over where it's like both these teams are
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: so efficient offensively, I just don't see them getting stops
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: where these two teams identities are different than the teams
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: of last year.
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: Where this team, you know, the Chiefs, like long, methodical drives.
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: They want to take their time. Sam goes with the
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: forty nine ers, like the forty nine ers. Yeah, they
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: can push the ball downfield, that's not who they want
• 23:00
  Speaker 4: to be. Like that really isn't if you go through
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: they like to take their time as well. So both
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: going off game script. And we talk all the time
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: about the nerves, I just think between these guys being
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: so nervous everything like that, it's just it plays to
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: the under and that factors. Another bet I like to
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: make every year if you're near to the show, I
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: love betting the second half as being the most points.
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: Like I just I just find a time and time
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: a game seems like teams come out slow. Granted it
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: didn't work out last year, but that happens Like this
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: is just a bet I like to make every year
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: where historically teams come out slow in the first half
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: and you know, we were spoiled. I was so spoiled
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: with that Tom Brady run where Tom Brady the goat,
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: the greatest quarterback ever. It is arguably the worst quarterback
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: in Super Bowl history in the first quarter. Like I
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: think in one time out of nine games, he scored
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: more than three points in the first quarter. So that
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: was a gift because I just would always bet second
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: half most points just because of the Brady effect.
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: It hasn't been the same with Mahomes. Mahomes comes out firing.
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: It's a little different with him in the Super Bowl,
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: but I just see both teams kind of feeling each
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: other out and playing a little slow. So yeah, for
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: under bets, I like to tie it in. I like
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: the second half have been the most points compared to
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: the first half.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: In the last couple of days, we've seen a shift
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: in the bet percentages for the total. The overhad about
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the tickets in the last forty
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: eight hours. Now fifty three percent of the tickets are
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: on the under. Handle has been on the under since
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: the start at sixty three percent, so that's telling you
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: professional betters have liked the under forty seven and a half.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: We bet the under forty seven and a half basically
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: two weeks ago at this point, it's just been sitting there.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised it didn't get higher. We saw the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: tickets creeping there, but all the money was coming in
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: on the under, so that's sort of why it stayed
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: where it did. It'll probably end up going lower before
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: game time if these tickets continue to come in on
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: the under. I thought Nick Giffen had a bet the
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: other day that I loved that. I probably have equal
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: to my side on this bet. Christian McCaffrey over three
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: and a half rush yards on his first carry. I
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: thought his breakdown was brilliant. It totally makes sense anecdotally.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Think about how many times you've seen Christian McCaffrey get
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: the first carry, and you know he is surprisingly powerful
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: in the middle of that line. And I think even
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: though what people have played against him, it still is
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: a jolt, right, And that is like a play they script.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: They want to get him off the ball, They want
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: to move the line to scrimmage forward. They want to
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: feel like they are controlling and overpowering the other defense.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: To me, that the way Nick lined up that bet.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Freaking loved it.
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I love it too, because it's like he talked
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: about it's hit out of eleven out of sixteen games,
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: and now you factor in it's a good matchup against
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs. We keep talking about it. Chiefs have undersized linebackers.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: The way you attack the Chiefs is running the ball.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: Even though they have some of the better tackling cornerbacks,
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: that doesn't help you when you're trying to stop them
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: four or five yards, right, Like, that's your second line,
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: third line of defense. These great at tackling cornerbacks. So yeah,
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: I'm right there with Nick. Like first play, you expect
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: the offense to have some push. You know, you already
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: know what they're gonna run, right, They're just gonna run
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: into McCaffrey, run up the middle of one of the sides.
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: It's just it bakes into what we talked about where
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: that's the fort down of his identity.
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: Right. If they want to set a tone, they're gonna
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: set it to them by running the ball.
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: And that's what they like to do right there. Half
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: their plays are out of play action pass. So not
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: shocking that you love that play. I tried to bet
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: it when Nick talked about it, the number kept moving.
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: So it is tough people.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: If you're hearing this now, you do want to grab
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: it three and a half because it is moving up
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: to four.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Tell me about your Deebo, Samuel Over it was over
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: fifty eight and a half earlier in the week. I
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: think it's creeping up a little bit. But you had
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: really good breakdown and why you liked debo over fifty
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: eight and a half for senior yards.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and shifting out to fifty nine and a half
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: and sixty eight. A couple of books still like it.
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: But we talked about Deebo is going to be in
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: the slot. That's really honestly, the only real weakness is
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: Kansas City Secondary. They're just not good against slot receivers,
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: so you will be on the outside. Obviously, he's going
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: to be getting more attention where Deebo in that slot position.
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: I can just see him getting a lot of work
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: and a lot of touches. Where we talk all the time.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: Deebo's issue with us is is he going to finish
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: the game? The guy plays so hard, he uses his
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: body so violently, it's hard to know we're going to
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: get week to week from him. This is it, right,
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: this is the last game of the year, so he's
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: going all out. I think they're gonna use him that
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: way where it's like, you know, Kyle's not gonna be
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: saving him for the next game, right, It's it's gonna
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: be a lot of plays that are scripted just for Deebo.
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: And that's a big deal.
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: When you go through Deebo's history and games where he
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: does explode, it's off scripted plays. It's it's really something
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: unique with him. So the only reason to me that
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: this number is so low is because of his running ability,
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: Like you have to mix in that he's going to
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: be getting carries in this game. That's a big deal, right,
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: That's gonna take away touches fro him catching.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: But me and you talked about how we think the
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: game script is gonna be.
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs will have a lead that plays
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: into Debo as well, like Debo getting these catches. So again,
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: when you're making these bets, you're trying to trying to
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: bet out how you think the whole game scrip is
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: going to go. And this plays into how I think
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: the gamestrips can go. And also add in the fact
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: that all the numbers line up where this is a
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: huge favorable matchup for Debo. Like everything he does well,
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: they struggle with covering in that slot position. So everything
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: I've read, all the b writers say Debo is one
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: hundred percent good to go. So obviously, if you're worried
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: because he was banged up two weeks ago, I read
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: that he couldn't even lift his arm above his head
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: after the game, and then by the following week when
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: game time showed up, he had full rotation of his
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: arms and his shoulders and he was all good. Now
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: he's had two weeks to go, full participate in all
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: their practices, not on the injury report, feel okay betting
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: Debo here. I know a lot of people worried about
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: the injury. I wouldn't fact that it in right, It's
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: not worth them lying about on the injury report. Even
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: if he was a little banged up, they would put
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: some type of news on there. He's completely clear to go.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: So I do have confidence and betting Deebo this week.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Well, listen the buzz coming from Super Bowl in Las
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Vegas yesterday, how royally pissed the Niners are about the
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: practice field conditions. And like I know that story came
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: out earlier in the week and at the press conferences
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: they weren't necessarily sort of trying to blow it off
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: and brush it off, but they weren't sort of speaking
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: their truth. They're pissed. I heard about that three or
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: four different times yesterday. How pissed players coaches are about
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the conditions that they're projecting on. Do I think that
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: impacts the game? Probably not? But it does it mean
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: on a Wednesday or a Thursday, are you practicing in
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: conditions that aren't an ideal and you're a ninety seven
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: percent instead of one hundred percent? Will that three percent matter?
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: I don't know. All I know is they're really pissed.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: And that's been a story that has been bubbling here
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: in Las Vegas much more aggressively than it's even being covered,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: and it has been covered, so, uh, something to think about.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: That's why I asked you about the rain though, because
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: I've heard all these reports they've the Vegas Stadium has
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: one of those wheel wheeled out grass fields, so it's
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: one of those fields they wheeled out of the stadium.
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: And apparently in Vegas they've had some bad weather and
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: it's been in the forties and fifties most nights. So again,
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: are we really going to be talking about grass here
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: next week, just like we did last Super Bowl. But
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: apparently the field they're going to wheel in is a
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: little a little banged up from being outdoors and stuff.
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: So another thing we could see is a slick field
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: and players having to switch switch cleats mid game. It's
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: just back to back Super Bowls like this is kind
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: of a disaster for the NFL.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: All right, let me summarize for people the bets that
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: we're sort of leading into the most. It's going to
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: be the Chiefs plus two. For the record, we both
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: bet this at two and a half. You might have
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: gotten a little bit of the three when it first
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: opened on Sunday night under forty seven and a half.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: We both bet Deebo Samuel over his receiving yards fifty
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. It's moving up. We both bet
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey over three and a half rush yards on
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: his first attempt. I also, based on some stats Evan
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: gave us a couple weeks ago, I bet Chiefs minus
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: two and a half at about plus one thirty five,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: which I thought was really fun. And chances are that
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: sort of these games will land at three or more.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: So if you like one side, then maybe you want
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: to take that side as a favorite of less than
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: three of three or of at lesson three. And then
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: I did sprinkle based on our conversation on Tuesday, a
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: little bit of a Sheiver Rice MVP. It's sixty to one,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Travis Kelce seventeen to one. You know, I'm trying to
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: find the ways to bet the Chiefs without having to
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: go all in on the Chiefs and find ways to
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: hedge a little bit with the Niners. I know it's cowardly,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: but you know, I want to enjoy the game, and.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: Talking about those adjusted lines, it made me feel that
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: then better. When Nick was talking about how these teams
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: they don't do things outside the book, right, they don't
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: go for two, they rarely miss extra points, Like it's
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: these teams very do play it by the book, so
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: we shouldn't see some weird numbers. Like I feel even
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: better taking the minus two and a half because it
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: does feel like this game will laying on three. That's
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: why Nick is trying to get all of us to
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: bet this overtime bet, which I think is actly hilarious.
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: But yeah, for for me, right now, I'm right there
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: with Chad and we can run through a couple more
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: of the player props, but it's it's all about what
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: you want the games cub to beat people. That's how
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: I bet because if I hit big, I want to
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: hit huge. And I mean again, don't be scared off
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: of betting the really boring chalk bets. We've seen timetime again,
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: the star player usually show up. I mean last year,
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: I think what Hurts had three rushing touchdowns and Mahomes
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: had a great game. And the year before, I think
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: Cooper Cupp had two touchdowns, and I think Chase Went
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: had two touchdowns.
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: Like, the stars usually do show up.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: So if you're like, well, I don't want to bet
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey all of his overs and his touchdown props,
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: bet them, I'm betting them. It's like the best players
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: show up and you were saying, well, the defense is
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: gonna be covering him. They're all gonna shift their coverage
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: to him. What do you think his whole career has been?
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: Do you not get what a Hall of Famer is? Okay,
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: it's team preparing as much as they can for one
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: guy and the game plan being gone end of their
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: first quarter. That's the kind of guy Travis Kelcey is so,
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: I got a lot of questions like, well, don't you
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: feel like you're superstar heavy. Yes, that's how you should
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: be betting in the Super Bowl. Like the best names,
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: the best guys, they tend to get their touches in
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: these Super Bowls. Right, there's always gonna be a David Tyree. Okay,
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: think how long ago David Tyree's catch was. Okay, that's
• 33:53
  Speaker 4: how rare those little things are. Where Yes, they're always
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: gonna be random guys making big plays, but usually the
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: best players show up. So another prop I like an
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: over guy running back is Pachecko. Right, I think the
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: Chiefs are going to control this game. What is the
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: weakness of this point hours team? They can be ran
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: on and that is something where you know, Chase Young
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: Bosa great pass rushers, they're not that great against the run,
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: and that has been a weakness of Theirs this season.
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: So yeah, but check go.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: A couple of books have moved them up above sixty
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: sixty five and a half sixty nine at some books
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: is rushing over prop?
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: I just think this is a team that's gonna made
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: a ball control. We've seen it all season with Pacheck
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: go too. He's just their workhorse. I believe he averaged
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: over four point three yards per carry. No other running
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: back in their TEAMVVA comes close to that. So he
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: is their guy and he re talked about it. When
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: they get him over seventeen touches, that's usually them sealing
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: the games right, and we've seen time and time again
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: they want to feed him the ball, especially in the
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: second half when they do have a lead. So Pa Checko,
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: that's another player prop I like his over rushing yards.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: On Another one that I like is Checko to lead
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: the game in rushing, which you might be able to
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: get at better numbers. I think at least last week.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: It was that a coroner bet?
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: That was I think it was a raybon or coroner bet?
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: It was plus money last week I got it. Yeah, Simon,
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Everyone that knows me knows I'm obsessed with eating well.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: I avoid sugar, I avoid seed oils. My body is
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: a temple. I seek out quality in everything I eat,
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  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty dollars off. All right, Simon, I'm in Vegas.
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: I'm leaving Vegas before the game. I feel like acting
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: like you've been there knows when you is, knowing when
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: you should leave the Super Bowl. So I'm leaving the
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: day before. Where will you be How are you going
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: to spend your day? Will you be live betting your
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: face off? What is your for both Sunday light?
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: It all depends. Obviously.
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: I'm back in Jersey. I have a lot of friends
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: and family around here, so I might do super Bowl parties.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: You know, have fun.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: But I am crazy, superstitious, and I have a weird
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: thing where I like to do.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: But I'm what I live back here on Sunday.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: Is my favorite thing to do is I go to
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: the books, so we do our show Sunday morning, I'll
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: do our show. I'll head either down to a sierra
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: to Philadelphia. And it's weird. But I like to play
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: blackjack during the games. I don't know why I've always
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: been this way. And again I'm not playing for big money,
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: but I like to play where I'm watching, but I'm
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: half watching, especially if I have a lot of money
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: on the game. And then if things start going good
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: and I'm winning in blackjack as well, I'll stay. And
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: if things are going bad both sides, I get out
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: right away, like five minutes in ten minutes, and I'll
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: get out because I.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: Just won't like the vibes. But this game.
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: I know a couple of people having a big parties
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: down at Lake City. I'll probably go down for that.
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: Always a good time. So yeah, it's I think this
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: will be my third super Bowl down in Atlantic City,
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: and obviously it's Baby Vegas for a reason.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: It's always a really good time, especially for the Super Bowl.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Where will you go if you leave five or ten
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: minutes out? Where are you going?
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: Like if I'm in the book and I'm hating and I.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Want to leave, Yeah, you just go back to your place.
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: No, I'll go hang out with the common folk.
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: I'll go hang out with the normal people and watch
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: the game, eat some pretzels, have some small talk about
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: the wife and kids, now, the usual normal people stuff.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: That's so funny.
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: How do you.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: Progress so green?
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Oh?
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: I use a turkey fertilizer. Yeah, it's always a good
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: time shot small talk in your mid thirties.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: It's true. That's exactly why my wife when I was leaving,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: She's like, so, you're gonna be home on Sunday. I'm
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: like yeah. She goes, do you want to have a party.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: I'm like, no, I don't want to talk to anybody
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: during the game. I don't want to be communicating with people.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: When I'm going to be on my phone, I'm going
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: to be tracking in the app the percentage opportunity percent
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: chance I have to win my bet. I think my kid,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: I'll have a bunch of friends over. They'll be crazy.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I may have to leave the room because at some point,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: if it gets too crazy, it'll stress me out. And
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I don't want to be the dad who is like
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: letting bets impact his mood on Super Bowl Sunday and
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: having the kid see that. So I'll I'll probably end up,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: you know, under the covers in my room by myself.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that was me. Like last year, I was
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: I didn't want to watch with anyone.
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: Because I had so much money, and it was the Eagles,
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: and I made the huge mistake of they're up ten
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: at halftime, feeling pretty good, hit up a lady friend
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: go watch the game with and I'm hanging out with her,
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: and I think it was I don't know what happened,
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: but either we had to leave head in the fourth
• 39:51
  Speaker 4: quarter or whatever it was, we punted and again this
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: girl will never never hit me up ever again. I
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: looked there like a crazy person, was like, I need
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: to leave right now, and she's like, Wow, I'm just
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: like everything is going wrong since I've gotten here. I
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: just need to leave. And yeah, that didn't matter. The
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: egos lost anyway, But anyone knows if you're sports better.
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: We're all crazy. We're all superstitious. Even though we say
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: we're not, we are in some different ways. So I'm
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: with Chad where it's like, in the ideal world, i'd
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: watched a loan so I could stay focused. But I
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: did that last year, so I'm gonna try to go
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: out and beat around people this year.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Also, we're always doing the math. What do I need
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: to happen on the next two plays in order for
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: my bet to get back in a position to win?
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: All hope is lost? Or no, maybe it's not. What
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: is it When all hope is lost? All that's left
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: is relief? My favorite scoochism, by the way, Bob Scoochy.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: I'll be seeing him this week in Las Vegas. Simon
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: by now you know that Little Caesars, the official pizza
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL, knows fans love a great game
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: and a great deal, so they're tossing out a challenge.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: They're calling that challenge the pick six for slices and sticks.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: If there's a pick six during Super Bowl fifty eight,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: fans who accepted this challenge on the Little Caesars app
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: will get a free slices and sticks period. They've even
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: partnered with NFL legend Derek Brooks of the Tampa Bay
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Box because he returned a famous pick six during Super
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: Bowl thirty seven back in two thousand and three when
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: the bus crushed the Raiders forty eight twenty one. Simon,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: in honor of this promotion, I created one final motto
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: for this football season. When the Super Bowl hits you
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: like a roundhouse from Swazy, refresh your body with the
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: crust that is crazy.
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: So accept the.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Challenge on the Little Caesars app today and win some pizza.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Don't you think I really brought it home for the
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: last motto of the year. You might have thought, Simon,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: I was out last night. I wasn't going to be
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: able to really put my all into the motto. But
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: I got up super early, a little jet lagged that
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: I was up at three o'clock and I spent like
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: three hours trying to craft that last Little Caesar's motto.
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, anytime you can mix in a movie about a
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: bouncer from the eighties into our ad reads. I'm all
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: for it, of course.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: All right, as promised, before we get out of here,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: let's bring in Action Network direct our research. Evan Abram
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: for the last word. Evan, don't give me any news
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: that I'm not going.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: To like.
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: The last word with Evan Abrams.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: We're finished talking now Today's news.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: It's fine. I do have to say this. So I'm
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: live from Las Vegas as well, but I will agree
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: to one indictment. So I had a layover to Vegas,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: and I did it on purpose because I wanted to
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: and needed to stop in Denver to gamble. I don't
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: think there's more of an indictment of sports betting than
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: me on my way to Vegas making sure I stopped
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: in Denver to bet, than what you talked about earlier.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: So why I completely agree in Denver because you weren't
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to get the best down in Vegas.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, the bed, the props, and also Denver's fantastic
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: in terms of like the options and different things you
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: can bet on. And also agree simon sports betters are
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: completed by vibes. People of the Blackjack story completely true. Everyone,
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: we all do weird things, so fantastic. All right, let's
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: jump into this. I'll go through a few things here,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: just some fun stuff to remind us a few days
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: before the super Bowl. Kind of what's the stakes at
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: the moment. So if the Chiefs win, they'd be the
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: ninth back to back super Bowl champs, but also the
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: first to win both as underdogs, which is hilarious considering
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: it's Patrick Mahomes. But it's also and there's a great
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: note by Brandon Anderson. He wrote this on actionetwork dot
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: Com the hardest path to a title based on opponent
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: Dvoway since nineteen eighty one if the Chiefs win this,
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: which is incredible and a fun cover note. So Mahomes
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: with a win and cover third super Bowl, he's done that.
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Only Brady Bradshawn Montana have won and covered three.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: I do think that's another reason why I like Mahomes.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: He's cha chasing legacy. The guy's what twenty seven, twenty eight,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: He's chasing legacy at this point, not even thirty years old,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: but he can see what's in front of him. That's
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: to me a massive edge. When you have that kind
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: of talent, and you know you can be historic.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: It's also really unbelievable what the Chiefs had done historically
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: before him and what he's done since he's arrived. The
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: history wasn't great as people know, m so incredible. So
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: let's keep going here. So if Casey does win the
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, history is pretty terrible here. So they
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: would become a third team in Super Bowl history to
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: lose twice in five years with two different quarterbacks. The
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: Dolphins did in eighty three and eighty five with Woodley Marino,
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: and the Vikings did it in nineteen seventy and seventy
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: four with Cap and Tarkenton. So really doesn't happen often.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: You could take it a step further because they also
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: lost previously, right the Niners. So third, it'd be the
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: third and twelve years with three different quarterbacks, and that's
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: never been done.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: So who was the quarterback twelve?
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: So Kaepernick? All right, Kaepernick? This goes to your question
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: as well. So Rock Party twenty four years old, third
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. So nineteen eighty five,
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: twenty three year old Marino did really well. Twenty nine
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: to fifty three, eighteen touchdown, did throw two picks, but
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: decent game. Dolphins lost. Then in two thousand and six,
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: Big Ben literally did nothing in the game, nine to
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: twenty one, one hundred and twenty three yards, no touchdowns,
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: two picks. Defense was incredible. They won twenty one ten,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: So little bit of precedents in both directions. So honestly,
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: I think we can see almost anything from Party in
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: this game based on how they designed the plays. But
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: it should look better early on with Shanahan, and then
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: we're going to see where Party takes in my opinion,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: I got one.
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: More for you.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: So this is the eighth Super Bowl, eighth super Bowl
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: in history where one quarterback is playing in his first
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl facing a quarterback who's playing in his third
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: or more. The experience quarterback is five and two in
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: those seven games, the two losses both to Tom Brady.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: First it was Eli Manning and the Giants in two
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: thousand and eight, then Nick Foles and Eagles in twenty eighteen,
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: and only once in those seven games was the more
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: experienced quarterback the underdog. Twenty sixteen, Denver's Peyton Manning beat
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Cam Newton and the Panthers by two touchdowns. As four
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: and a half point underdog, So the presidents here is
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: almost incredible that you have this guy getting the two
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: and a half points against the other side. But also
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Hertz Eagles last year he was twenty four years old.
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: He ended up closing as the favorite. We remember how
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: that ended. So pretty fun story back to back years.
• 46:44
  Speaker 3: Guys.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: You know what's frightening Evan. You mentioned two thousand and three,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: you mentioned two thousand and eight, you mentioned Ben Roethlisberger
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and six. I'm so old that was
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: at all of these games. That is really These sound
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: like they are ancient history, but they are yesterday to me.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: I just want to say that as a reminder. Catch
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube every Tuesday.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: So if you're subscribing or if you're watching on YouTube,
• 47:15
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• 47:18
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• 48:01
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• 48:09
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• 48:11
  Speaker 1: all your bests this weekend everybody until Tuesday. Love You.
• 48:22
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• 48:26
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