Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 10 with Scooch, Darren Rovell and Simon Hunter
Transcript
- 0:09Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
- 0:13Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. We have a blistering, blistering show today.
- 0:19Speaker 1: A first, everyone should go into their podcast provider of choice, rate, review, subscribe,
- 0:31Speaker 1: mostly review the podcast. You review the podcast, and if
- 0:34Speaker 1: I like what you say, if it's especially original, funny, clever, thoughtful,
- 0:39Speaker 1: I'm gonna send you some swag, including the very cool
- 0:43Speaker 1: Action Network hoodie that I am wearing this very second.
- 0:49Speaker 1: Later on in the show, we're gonna have Darren Revel
- 0:51Speaker 1: and professional better Simon Hunter. Come on, we're gonna go
- 0:54Speaker 1: over our Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest picks folks. Last
- 0:58Speaker 1: week we went four oh in one and the one
- 1:01Speaker 1: we lost was a gut wrenching Bucks plus six against
- 1:06Speaker 1: the Seahawks, which could have ended in regulation if the
- 1:09Speaker 1: Seahawks field goal kicker could have made a kick. Instead
- 1:12Speaker 1: we lost. Instead, we pushed because they scored an overtime touchdown,
- 1:16Speaker 1: which you knew was going to happen. Plus, we're gonna
- 1:18Speaker 1: have a promotion. We're gonna pronounce something in conjunction with
- 1:22Speaker 1: points bet that every Revel hater on the Internet is
- 1:26Speaker 1: gonna love and Darren as is his m O is
- 1:31Speaker 1: embracing it like you wouldn't believe that's going to come
- 1:33Speaker 1: on later in the show, but first from the New
- 1:38Speaker 1: Orleans representing all the BOYD gaming books in the state
- 1:44Speaker 1: of Nevada and throughout the country, and looking at me
- 1:47Speaker 1: face to face, looking deeply into my eyes. Mr Bob
- 1:53Speaker 1: Scoot Gee, oh my brother, it is so good to
- 2:12Speaker 1: be with you face to face here in New York.
- 2:13Speaker 1: You were in town for a conference. We were both
- 2:15Speaker 1: at the conference the past couple of days. I'm kind
- 2:17Speaker 1: of looking at you face to face. Um. We are
- 2:20Speaker 1: set up today legendary Broadway Video. People may recognize it
- 2:27Speaker 1: as the production company that is owned by Lord Michael's
- 2:31Speaker 1: and produces so many great movies and TV shows. Uh,
- 2:35Speaker 1: it happens to be our studio for the day. And
- 2:37Speaker 1: so we're walking in here and there's like, here's you know,
- 2:41Speaker 1: John Belushi in like his samurai outfit, and there's Gilda
- 2:45Speaker 1: Radner in like a picture on the wall, and there's
- 2:49Speaker 1: SNL paraphernalia, and it's us two schmucks recording a gambling
- 2:53Speaker 1: podcast like in the coolest studio we've ever been. It's amazing,
- 2:56Speaker 1: it's and it's in the Brill Building, in the Bill Building,
- 2:58Speaker 1: which explain to people that is well, I mean all
- 3:01Speaker 1: the famous acts like Carol King back in the sixties
- 3:04Speaker 1: and seventies, uh, Neil Diamond, Neil, I mean all of the
- 3:07Speaker 1: the famous artists recorded and wrote their their music like
- 3:11Speaker 1: right out of this building many years and so historic.
- 3:14Speaker 1: I saw people just out on the sidewalk trying to
- 3:17Speaker 1: peek in the historic building as as we were coming in.
- 3:20Speaker 1: I mean even the elevators, so there were some of
- 3:22Speaker 1: the most ornate elevators I've ever seen. They were amazing.
- 3:24Speaker 1: It's the home and hit makers like us. We're hit makers,
- 3:28Speaker 1: we're making hits, we're winners. I don't know about last week.
- 3:32Speaker 1: Was there any hits last week? I don't know, Scoots, Like,
- 3:35Speaker 1: I felt like I did really well last week. I'm
- 3:38Speaker 1: pretty pleased with how things turned out in my project,
- 3:41Speaker 1: my quest to win two hundred and fifties, to bet
- 3:44Speaker 1: all two hundred and fifty six games. It's Tuesday afternoon. Um.
- 3:47Speaker 1: I had a little bit of a bad beat with
- 3:49Speaker 1: the Giants last night. I had him plus seven. I
- 3:51Speaker 1: went against all my instincts. As you and I discussion
- 3:54Speaker 1: and and everyone can get like on Sunday mornings. I
- 3:57Speaker 1: highly recommend you listen to Scooch and I download the
- 4:00Speaker 1: radio dot com app search for you Better You Bet
- 4:03Speaker 1: um on Sunday mornings because we will basically have the
- 4:08Speaker 1: Mad Money experience for sports betting. There's fifty dollar bets
- 4:12Speaker 1: coming in, Scooches, moving lines, and we're talking about all
- 4:15Speaker 1: the action that is coming in in real time as
- 4:17Speaker 1: lines are moving and bets are being made. UM. And
- 4:20Speaker 1: one of the things we talked about was that the
- 4:23Speaker 1: idea that it is always better to bet on the
- 4:28Speaker 1: home dog that is getting the bets versus the road
- 4:32Speaker 1: favorite that is getting eighty percent of the bets. And
- 4:34Speaker 1: for some reason, I went against all my instincts and
- 4:38Speaker 1: I bet on the Packers against the Chargers. I bet
- 4:40Speaker 1: on the Browns against uh, who do they play the Broncos. Um.
- 4:47Speaker 1: But I did bet on the Ravens and I did
- 4:48Speaker 1: bet on the Giants, and I kind of feel like
- 4:51Speaker 1: I made the mistake. And if I had followed my gut,
- 4:53Speaker 1: I would have ended the weekend three and one. Yeah,
- 4:55Speaker 1: the Ravens, Chargers, Broncos, all those plays that we said,
- 4:58Speaker 1: you know, you just bet the home doll. Even though
- 5:00Speaker 1: they're bad teams. You just kind of hold your nose,
- 5:02Speaker 1: you make the bets. They're getting just too many points
- 5:05Speaker 1: and just historically you have to do it over the
- 5:08Speaker 1: course of the entire season to be profitable and get
- 5:11Speaker 1: get up to that. But the books had had a
- 5:15Speaker 1: great weekend, I mean, with the exception of maybe that
- 5:17Speaker 1: Seahawks game that was a bad beat for us too,
- 5:19Speaker 1: because we opened six and a half on that, we
- 5:21Speaker 1: let them take six and a half, went down to four,
- 5:24Speaker 1: and then everybody laid four and four and a half
- 5:26Speaker 1: going back up. So one of those dreaded medals we
- 5:29Speaker 1: often talk about. All right, So this Thursday night, we
- 5:32Speaker 1: finally have a game that is decent, right because we've
- 5:34Speaker 1: got the Chargers visiting the Raiders and the l A
- 5:38Speaker 1: Chargers who just beat the Packers, the Raiders who sneaky,
- 5:43Speaker 1: sneaky good lately, I like, I like when like you
- 5:45Speaker 1: try to look at me, we are we are recording
- 5:49Speaker 1: behind like basically where people would normally do voiceovers, and
- 5:52Speaker 1: so there are these huge sort of stands where people
- 5:55Speaker 1: can keep their scripts and they are higher than our faces,
- 5:58Speaker 1: and they've got these cool lights so you can like
- 6:00Speaker 1: see the light you can see the script when you're recording,
- 6:03Speaker 1: and Scooch and I are on these like bar stools,
- 6:06Speaker 1: but we can't actually see each other. So it's funny
- 6:08Speaker 1: we might have never be in the same room. Um.
- 6:10Speaker 1: Oakland is sneaky good and a sneaky wise Guy favorite lately.
- 6:14Speaker 1: I had Oakland minus two last week against the Jets.
- 6:16Speaker 1: I'm against the Lions, love that spot for them. Why
- 6:20Speaker 1: wouldn't I like Oakland as a home dog here? You,
- 6:23Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know why you wouldn't. I mean,
- 6:25Speaker 1: we were we we kind of like them, But they're
- 6:27Speaker 1: they're betting the Charges in this one. So right now
- 6:30Speaker 1: we're gonna need the Raiders, and I can tell you
- 6:32Speaker 1: we're gonna be quick to move this if we even
- 6:33Speaker 1: get just the slightest bet on the Raiders. I'm going
- 6:36Speaker 1: from minus one the Charges to minus one. Uh the Raiders.
- 6:40Speaker 1: We've liked them the last few weeks, and I've talked
- 6:42Speaker 1: about it going back to the Packer game, where just
- 6:45Speaker 1: I know I can't take a whole lot out of
- 6:47Speaker 1: that first half, but but I did, and they have
- 6:50Speaker 1: a good running game and their defense is stepping up.
- 6:53Speaker 1: I thought last week was a good spot mainly because
- 6:56Speaker 1: the Lions were kind of in a downward trend. But
- 7:00Speaker 1: this Raider team has not been getting any of the
- 7:03Speaker 1: kind of respect that they probably deserved. We had them
- 7:07Speaker 1: ranked pretty high to start the season. If you remember
- 7:09Speaker 1: the first game out of the year, we had them
- 7:11Speaker 1: almost a three point favorite against the Broncos. Uh and
- 7:15Speaker 1: that line moved five points to the Broncos minus two
- 7:18Speaker 1: and a half. So we've been kind of high on
- 7:20Speaker 1: the Raiders all the way through the year, and we've
- 7:23Speaker 1: done pretty well on them. I think the public is
- 7:25Speaker 1: finally going to kind of pick up after last week.
- 7:28Speaker 1: We may see this line come back a little bit,
- 7:31Speaker 1: especially in Vegas. People love the Raiders in Vegas, so, um, well,
- 7:35Speaker 1: I'm gonna be quick to move this one. Here's what
- 7:37Speaker 1: I don't get. Why would the Raiders ever be underdogs
- 7:41Speaker 1: in this spot? You think we should open them the favorite? Yeah? Well,
- 7:45Speaker 1: I mean you look at what the Chargers just did
- 7:46Speaker 1: against the Packers, who was ranked one of the top
- 7:49Speaker 1: two three teams in the NFC. So, uh, you know
- 7:53Speaker 1: you can't. We've often said you can't take too much
- 7:55Speaker 1: out of just one game, but uh, I guess if
- 7:59Speaker 1: you look gonna what the line would have been before Sunday,
- 8:02Speaker 1: it probably would have been the same, so there's not
- 8:04Speaker 1: too much of an adjustment. And uh, we're gonna let
- 8:08Speaker 1: the money dictate where the line goes, all right, Baltimore Ravens,
- 8:13Speaker 1: big big win. By the way, Just for the record,
- 8:17Speaker 1: I'm going to be on the Raiders in this game,
- 8:19Speaker 1: just to be clear. Baltimore nine and a half against
- 8:24Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. We just talked about
- 8:28Speaker 1: the rule. I can guarantee this is gonna be. This
- 8:32Speaker 1: is gonna be rule, and you're never gonna get, um,
- 8:39Speaker 1: the Ravens at a higher spot than you are right
- 8:41Speaker 1: now coming off of a big, big win against the Patriots.
- 8:46Speaker 1: I don't even know of nine and a half is
- 8:47Speaker 1: big enough. I think you gotta make it bigger, well, Wed,
- 8:50Speaker 1: and I'll make it and I'll bet on the Bengals. Yeah.
- 8:52Speaker 1: We we We opened ten and we've been at ten
- 8:55Speaker 1: since yesterday, so um, and we we agree. I mean,
- 8:59Speaker 1: I think the wise guys gonna see how high this
- 9:01Speaker 1: line gets. So you know, a lot of times we
- 9:03Speaker 1: we often talk about part of handicapping is predicting where
- 9:07Speaker 1: the line is going to be so that you can
- 9:09Speaker 1: get the best of the number. So if you think
- 9:11Speaker 1: this line is going to go up, you would want
- 9:14Speaker 1: to bet it now. Whereas if you think, uh, you
- 9:17Speaker 1: want to bet the Bengals and you think the line
- 9:19Speaker 1: is gonna go up, you would want to wait until Sunday.
- 9:22Speaker 1: So I do think this line is going to go
- 9:24Speaker 1: up based on the public perception. I mean, I'm looking
- 9:27Speaker 1: at the ticket account right now and it's about twenty
- 9:29Speaker 1: five to one Ravens tickets to Bengals tickets, which means
- 9:34Speaker 1: this is just just gonna be just one way by
- 9:36Speaker 1: the public. Like you said, it might be nine. So
- 9:40Speaker 1: so the wise guys are waiting. They know that they're
- 9:42Speaker 1: going to get a great number on the Bengals on
- 9:44Speaker 1: this one, so they're not going to tip their hand
- 9:46Speaker 1: now and take the ten when they know it's going
- 9:48Speaker 1: to go up to eleven. But I think the play
- 9:50Speaker 1: is the Bengals coming off of by a little extra
- 9:53Speaker 1: time to prepare. If you remember they played in weeks
- 9:55Speaker 1: six and the Bengals only lost by six and that
- 9:58Speaker 1: one and that was at Baltimore, So can hang with
- 10:00Speaker 1: this team, especially you want to talk about a spot
- 10:03Speaker 1: coming off the biggest win of the year so far
- 10:05Speaker 1: for the Ravens. It's a perfect spot. Double digits at
- 10:08Speaker 1: home with the Bengals. Alright, So Scooch, what do I
- 10:12Speaker 1: do here? Like, I want to bet on the Bengals
- 10:16Speaker 1: so badly, and the Bengals are such a bad team.
- 10:19Speaker 1: I know they're gonna break my heart, So tell tell
- 10:23Speaker 1: me how I get away with this. It is a
- 10:26Speaker 1: it is an honest to god stinkfest in every single way. Yeah,
- 10:30Speaker 1: and that and that's the problem with with betting on
- 10:32Speaker 1: bad teams like this is even when you know that
- 10:35Speaker 1: they should be covering, they're gonna find They could always
- 10:38Speaker 1: find a way with a pick six, a fumble recovery,
- 10:40Speaker 1: a block punt something. That's what makes them an O
- 10:43Speaker 1: and eight team. So that's the that's the downside. That's
- 10:46Speaker 1: the stuff you have to fade when you bet these
- 10:48Speaker 1: real bad teams. But again, we're playing percentages, and if
- 10:51Speaker 1: you're playing percentages, you're getting ten points in this spot
- 10:54Speaker 1: when you should probably only be getting about seven seven
- 10:57Speaker 1: and a half. Alright, So basically you're saying, I'm gonna
- 11:00Speaker 1: have to bet on the Bengals, which is the last
- 11:03Speaker 1: thing in the world I want to do. Huh. Except
- 11:07Speaker 1: maybe betting on Atlanta as a nearly two touchdown dog
- 11:14Speaker 1: on the road at New Orleans. Yeah, what am I
- 11:17Speaker 1: gonna do? This one's a little different. I mean the
- 11:20Speaker 1: ticket account is almost the same, almost to one. Saints
- 11:23Speaker 1: the Falcons. Uh. Just the Falcons have just been just
- 11:31Speaker 1: really hard to bet on, even even probably worse than
- 11:33Speaker 1: than the Bengals. Uh. The difference here is the Saints
- 11:36Speaker 1: are at home. So even though you're supposed to bet
- 11:39Speaker 1: the double digit dog and this one, I don't. I'm
- 11:42Speaker 1: glad I don't have to bet these these are the ones.
- 11:45Speaker 1: I'm just happy we could just make the lines and
- 11:46Speaker 1: let the and let the public dictate. Uh, you know
- 11:50Speaker 1: where it goes from here. But this, this is a
- 11:53Speaker 1: tough one. I stay away from this one. Well, I
- 11:55Speaker 1: gotta bet it. I gotta bet all two and like
- 11:59Speaker 1: I eight and six last weekend, I think I'm seventy
- 12:03Speaker 1: and fifty four on the year. Whatever it is, I'm
- 12:09Speaker 1: killing it. Everyone should be following me. I'm betting a
- 12:11Speaker 1: like a six clip. I gotta bet this game, but
- 12:14Speaker 1: I gotta bet the Saints. Well, you might have uh,
- 12:18Speaker 1: Matt Ryan back, so he is a list of the
- 12:20Speaker 1: problem I'm not sure how good that that is. I
- 12:23Speaker 1: don't know if it's an upgrade at this point. But
- 12:25Speaker 1: what do you think I think about that? Do you
- 12:27Speaker 1: think that you don't care? No in the least. No,
- 12:31Speaker 1: I don't want the money bet on the Falcons is
- 12:34Speaker 1: money wasted. I know how much you like the Falcons. JU,
- 12:40Speaker 1: here's a great one. This is a really interesting game.
- 12:43Speaker 1: Oh my god, this whoa. I don't know how you
- 12:48Speaker 1: set this line the way you did Buffalo on the
- 12:51Speaker 1: road at Cleveland you got it looks like you got
- 12:54Speaker 1: the Browns as about three point favorites. Here the high
- 13:00Speaker 1: line Buffalo bills looking amazing, Like for for a couple
- 13:03Speaker 1: of years, everyone who said Sean mcdermot's a great coach.
- 13:05Speaker 1: This is a great defense against the Browns team that
- 13:08Speaker 1: is in a free fall. Like you got Baker Mayfield
- 13:12Speaker 1: and a sad mustache and a team that cannot get
- 13:15Speaker 1: out of its own way in a prime spot, going
- 13:18Speaker 1: against Brandon Alan, Brandon Allen who had never played and
- 13:23Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos who really looked awful, um with their
- 13:27Speaker 1: entire team questioning their philosophy, and they can't get out
- 13:30Speaker 1: of there with a win. Now, they're supposed to win
- 13:33Speaker 1: at home. They're supposed to be three point favorites at
- 13:35Speaker 1: home against an unbelievably good defense. I think I think,
- 13:39Speaker 1: I think that's what every recreational better is going to
- 13:42Speaker 1: say when they walk in and they see the Browns
- 13:45Speaker 1: a favorite in this one, when they feel like the
- 13:47Speaker 1: Bills are the better team and the Bills maybe the
- 13:50Speaker 1: better team. But again, we're just talking home field here,
- 13:54Speaker 1: and I think the Sharp guys agreed with us because
- 13:57Speaker 1: we did shade it a little bit towards the Bills.
- 13:59Speaker 1: We actually hung two and a half and the first
- 14:01Speaker 1: couple of bets out of the gate was laying the
- 14:04Speaker 1: Browns minus two and a half and we went to
- 14:06Speaker 1: three on this one. So this might be another rule
- 14:10Speaker 1: where is on the Bills and the Sharp guys are
- 14:13Speaker 1: on are on the Browns now. Having said that, we've
- 14:16Speaker 1: been in situations where kind of the professional betters manipulate
- 14:21Speaker 1: the market and especially around key numbers, and if they're
- 14:24Speaker 1: able to drive a number up to a key number
- 14:27Speaker 1: like three early in the week off of just a
- 14:29Speaker 1: few small bets, then maybe the Bills is the right
- 14:32Speaker 1: play for the Sharp guys. And then they come in
- 14:35Speaker 1: and bet three four times as much on the Bills
- 14:37Speaker 1: at plus three rather than betting them early in the
- 14:40Speaker 1: week at plus two and a half. These are the
- 14:42Speaker 1: kind of things we have to play cat and mouse
- 14:43Speaker 1: with with a lot of the professional betters, especially around
- 14:46Speaker 1: key numbers. I am promised by that game. It's it's
- 14:55Speaker 1: a tough one. The wise guy play is going to
- 14:57Speaker 1: be in the Browns. Yeah, because it's a short short pa.
- 15:00Speaker 1: I mean, especially if you got the two and a
- 15:01Speaker 1: half and I think and they obviously did get the
- 15:04Speaker 1: two and a half or early, so uh yeah, it's
- 15:06Speaker 1: one of those you know, you lay minus one, you
- 15:08Speaker 1: lay minus two at home. Uh, you know, take the
- 15:10Speaker 1: big dogs at home, just to certain rules that you
- 15:13Speaker 1: have to follow if you're going to be successful throughout
- 15:16Speaker 1: the year. The Jets and the Giants are playing in Theory.
- 15:20Speaker 1: The Giants are visiting the Jets and their two and
- 15:22Speaker 1: a half point road favorites. Uh, this is an interesting one,
- 15:28Speaker 1: like how do you handicap this? The Giants looked dreadful
- 15:31Speaker 1: and the Jets look dreadful. I mean, look one of us,
- 15:34Speaker 1: uh playing scoocher let actually put the took the Dolphins
- 15:38Speaker 1: on the money line. Last week. Um, I'm pretty sure
- 15:41Speaker 1: it was me. This is also, by the way, later
- 15:44Speaker 1: on in the show, we're gonna talk about the Revel
- 15:47Speaker 1: uh promo, and the Jets Giants is at the centerpiece
- 15:51Speaker 1: of that. People are going to really enjoy it at
- 15:53Speaker 1: the end. If Revel loses, he's gonna end up having
- 15:56Speaker 1: to do something so publicly embarrassing that I think the
- 15:59Speaker 1: entire world can rally around it. Um. So, the Giants
- 16:04Speaker 1: are two and a half quote unquote road favorites against
- 16:07Speaker 1: the Jets. Rock Hard plays bad worse. This is the
- 16:13Speaker 1: corner TV game TV game. I'm gonna show you this.
- 16:18Speaker 1: There's not one bet on this game. Oh my god?
- 16:22Speaker 1: You see that? Can I take a picture of that?
- 16:24Speaker 1: Am I allowed? I can't take a picture of that,
- 16:28Speaker 1: but I'm sharing it. I'm sharing it with you, all right. Well,
- 16:31Speaker 1: Scools just showed me his screen and there's literally not
- 16:34Speaker 1: a single bet on the Jets Giants. The only bet
- 16:36Speaker 1: might be Darren Ravel making a bet for your enjoyment
- 16:39Speaker 1: that everyone else can pile in on when they play
- 16:41Speaker 1: with points bet. We're gonna talk about that later in
- 16:43Speaker 1: the show. What am I supposed to do? Right? I
- 16:45Speaker 1: guess I take I guess I like, are the Jets
- 16:48Speaker 1: consider a home dog here? No, No, they're not. I
- 16:51Speaker 1: mean this one. I mean I favored we We favored
- 16:56Speaker 1: the Giants. That's why we made them a slight favorite.
- 16:58Speaker 1: I mean, it's essentially playing on a neutral field. But
- 17:03Speaker 1: I mean, which team is worse, that's what you're handicapping.
- 17:05Speaker 1: And we've we've had a couple of games like this before,
- 17:08Speaker 1: uh you know, with with the Dolphins playing, and I
- 17:11Speaker 1: mean at some point you just have to say, who
- 17:13Speaker 1: is trending worse at the moment. I think the Giants,
- 17:16Speaker 1: like you said, was a bad beat last night against
- 17:18Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Um, I think the Giants are the much
- 17:21Speaker 1: better team at this point, all right, So I'll bet
- 17:24Speaker 1: the Giants in that game. Well, it's just money. You
- 17:30Speaker 1: gotta bet it. You gotta bet somebody. And at the
- 17:33Speaker 1: end of the day, what I'd rather put my money
- 17:35Speaker 1: in Pat Shermer and Daniel Jones or Adam Gaze and
- 17:40Speaker 1: Sam Donald. Yeah, I guess that's really what it comes
- 17:42Speaker 1: down to. Yep. Well, I put my money on Brian
- 17:45Speaker 1: Floors and Ryan Fitzpatrick. So I guess I know what
- 17:48Speaker 1: I'm thinking there. The Kansas City Chiefs three and a
- 17:51Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road at Tennessee. I don't
- 17:54Speaker 1: think this is big enough. This is a game where
- 17:56Speaker 1: I'm going to defy. Yeah, you don't like to to see,
- 18:00Speaker 1: do you? Oh? No, I don't like them because I
- 18:04Speaker 1: just don't think they have a chance to win the
- 18:06Speaker 1: Pantheon Cup. I don't care if al Pacino is coaching
- 18:11Speaker 1: them or not. Yeah, I know I know that. Uh.
- 18:14Speaker 1: We're actually so we're we're waiting to see if Mahomes
- 18:18Speaker 1: is playing in this one because it's gonna it's gonna
- 18:20Speaker 1: make a big difference as well as they're playing without them,
- 18:24Speaker 1: and and the big wins that they've had with more
- 18:27Speaker 1: I mean, uh, you know that was a that was
- 18:30Speaker 1: a huge win last week against the Vikings. Uh. So,
- 18:34Speaker 1: I know the public is going to take that into account.
- 18:37Speaker 1: We're gonna be high regardless of whether Mahomes is in
- 18:40Speaker 1: or not. But this line can go up as high
- 18:42Speaker 1: as seven if he's in. Right now, we're looking at
- 18:44Speaker 1: about three and a half four, But if he's definitely
- 18:48Speaker 1: in and appears to be healthy, we're gonna we're gonna
- 18:51Speaker 1: move this up to seven. Are you impressed with Matt more.
- 18:55Speaker 1: Have you changed your power rating on Matt More as
- 18:57Speaker 1: a quarterback? We did. I mean we we talked about
- 19:01Speaker 1: it even that the Broncos game that uh, that Mahomes
- 19:04Speaker 1: went out. I mean he looked good right out of
- 19:06Speaker 1: the gate. I mean they did have a couple of uh,
- 19:09Speaker 1: you know, bad losses at home, but he still looked effective.
- 19:12Speaker 1: And I wouldn't attribute those losses to him. Uh, you know,
- 19:16Speaker 1: against some good teams and uh and again I mean
- 19:19Speaker 1: he his his throws. I mean there was a couple
- 19:22Speaker 1: that Mahomes couldn't have done any better in that game,
- 19:26Speaker 1: uh Sunday. So uh, we they were a good team.
- 19:29Speaker 1: Look with with Mahomes, obviously they're a great team, but
- 19:32Speaker 1: there's still a real good team with without them. So uh,
- 19:36Speaker 1: we want to be high on this one, and we're not.
- 19:38Speaker 1: We're not Titans fans. We were kind of fading that
- 19:41Speaker 1: we were pretty high last week against the Titans, and
- 19:43Speaker 1: and we were right on that one. So uh, we're not.
- 19:47Speaker 1: We're not gonna want to need the Titans. By the way,
- 19:51Speaker 1: there's not a throw in the world that Matt Moore
- 19:53Speaker 1: can make that Patrick Mahomes couldn't make it look better.
- 19:58Speaker 1: Let's just be crystal clear about that. The Tampa Bay
- 20:03Speaker 1: Buccaneers are four and a half point favorites over the
- 20:04Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals. What I like to do in this scenario
- 20:08Speaker 1: is think of all the ways in which both teams
- 20:10Speaker 1: can let me down. Can it be Cliff Kingsbury, uh
- 20:17Speaker 1: calling a great first fifteen plays and then not being
- 20:21Speaker 1: able to get his team to go in the right
- 20:23Speaker 1: direction for the next forty seven minutes? Can it be
- 20:27Speaker 1: Jamis Winston finding ways to let the ball slip out
- 20:30Speaker 1: of his hands as he goes for a too long
- 20:32Speaker 1: wind up into a throw that will likely end up
- 20:35Speaker 1: being an interception anyways? Um? Can it be uh the
- 20:40Speaker 1: Bucks defense giving up yardage in chunks that are bigger
- 20:44Speaker 1: than a t Rex could take out of a triceratops? Like,
- 20:48Speaker 1: what are the ways in which this team, both of
- 20:50Speaker 1: these teams can let me down? Screech, and then just
- 20:52Speaker 1: tell me so I can decide how I want to
- 20:54Speaker 1: be hurt on Sunday? Well, I think you just mentioned
- 20:57Speaker 1: them all. I mean, is it is it going to
- 20:58Speaker 1: be the five interception wins and day? Is it going
- 21:01Speaker 1: to be the the Kyler Murray fumble day? I mean there.
- 21:05Speaker 1: There's so many ways that both these teams can let
- 21:07Speaker 1: you down. But the flip side of that is both
- 21:09Speaker 1: of them have tremendous amount of talent. They're just not
- 21:11Speaker 1: they're just not polished and they haven't found that found
- 21:14Speaker 1: the ways to win yet. And uh and at least
- 21:17Speaker 1: in the Cardinals case that the games that they have lost,
- 21:20Speaker 1: they they've made some of them very close. So you
- 21:22Speaker 1: always feel like you have a little life with the Cardinals.
- 21:25Speaker 1: And uh, getting we actually tried to hang this a
- 21:27Speaker 1: little a little high. We hung the Buccaneers five first
- 21:30Speaker 1: couple of bets out of the gate were on the
- 21:32Speaker 1: Cardinals and drove it down to four and a half.
- 21:35Speaker 1: So I mean, the Buccaneers are the better team. Um,
- 21:39Speaker 1: but I will say that the Cardinals are a live
- 21:41Speaker 1: dog here. Yeah, the Cardinals are always a live dog
- 21:44Speaker 1: because they will do so many things to give the
- 21:48Speaker 1: game away and then scramble back in through the back
- 21:51Speaker 1: door as the game gets closer to ending. That's their
- 21:54Speaker 1: m O. That's what they're so good at right now.
- 21:56Speaker 1: And like, look, one day they're gonna be a really
- 21:59Speaker 1: good team and Kyler Murray is going to be amazing
- 22:02Speaker 1: and you're gonna feel great about betting on them. Right now.
- 22:05Speaker 1: I just get Auntie. Yeah, that's all there is to it.
- 22:09Speaker 1: It makes me really sad. Hey, listen, right now, I'm
- 22:12Speaker 1: looking at UM. I am looking up the two thousand
- 22:16Speaker 1: and seventeen NFL Draft on my phone because that is
- 22:23Speaker 1: the year Mitch true Bisky was drafted. Okay, and the
- 22:28Speaker 1: Bears right now are hosting the Detroit Lines will be
- 22:31Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites. Something that I've started
- 22:34Speaker 1: to like to do recently. I don't know why is
- 22:37Speaker 1: UM go through the two two thousand seventeen NFL Draft,
- 22:41Speaker 1: in which, as we know, the Bears traded up, traded
- 22:45Speaker 1: up to get Mitch Robinsky, passing the opportunity to get
- 22:50Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. But lately
- 22:57Speaker 1: I've also been thinking, like, who, wells, didn't the Bears
- 23:01Speaker 1: get better? Better than Mr Bisky doesn't have to be
- 23:03Speaker 1: people who are going to end up in the Hall
- 23:05Speaker 1: of Fame. They passed on this is this is what
- 23:07Speaker 1: I do with my time now. They passed on Jamal Adams,
- 23:12Speaker 1: who would have been amazing. They passed on uh Juju
- 23:16Speaker 1: Smith Schuster in the second round. They passed on Marshawn Lattimore,
- 23:20Speaker 1: who's a shutdown cornerback. Um you name it. Like in
- 23:24Speaker 1: every single way, they passed on so many guys who
- 23:28Speaker 1: could have made a single O. J. Howard. I would
- 23:31Speaker 1: take J. Howard? Would not? I would why not? He's
- 23:35Speaker 1: athletic like Evan Ingram. Evan Ingram is like the only weapon.
- 23:39Speaker 1: Daniel Jones thinks about all these guys Jabrill Peppers, he's
- 23:42Speaker 1: playing great. Like I'm at the end of the first round.
- 23:44Speaker 1: I would have taken all these people, Taco Charleston, I
- 23:47Speaker 1: wouldn't have taken t J. Watts right now? Would you
- 23:49Speaker 1: take t J. Water and Mr Bisky, t J Wattick
- 23:53Speaker 1: in the first round? Like? Come on, there's like Juju
- 23:57Speaker 1: Smith Schuster was in the second round. Okay, here's my point.
- 24:01Speaker 1: The Bears are two and a half point favorites against
- 24:03Speaker 1: the Lions. I'm not feeling good about taking the Bears
- 24:05Speaker 1: is a short home favorite there no Now, I mean,
- 24:08Speaker 1: as as bad as the Lions have played in the
- 24:11Speaker 1: last couple of weeks, and we've been downgrading them as well, Um,
- 24:15Speaker 1: the Bears have been much worse. We Uh, First, I
- 24:17Speaker 1: think both the public and the wise guys will both
- 24:20Speaker 1: agree on this one. I think this line is gonna
- 24:22Speaker 1: come down. I've seen a couple of small bets from
- 24:25Speaker 1: guys that we respect, you know, bets in the neighborhood
- 24:27Speaker 1: of a thousand dollars uh that are coming in on
- 24:31Speaker 1: the Lions, which means that they probably feel that the
- 24:33Speaker 1: line is gonna go down to two and a half
- 24:35Speaker 1: for them to be betting at at the plus three
- 24:37Speaker 1: right now. They wouldn't do that if they didn't think
- 24:39Speaker 1: the line was gonna come down. And then the other
- 24:41Speaker 1: thing is the public to their on the Lions as well.
- 24:43Speaker 1: So I don't think we're gonna get much action on
- 24:45Speaker 1: the Bears at all. Um, so we're gonna be We're
- 24:48Speaker 1: gonna be quick to move this one down. I might
- 24:51Speaker 1: I agree with you on this one. This is one
- 24:53Speaker 1: that we look back on and say, yeah, I probably
- 24:55Speaker 1: shouldn't have opened it that high. What do you as
- 24:57Speaker 1: you opened at like pick uh probab be one one
- 25:00Speaker 1: and a half. A matter of fact, right after the show,
- 25:02Speaker 1: I'm going to call the guys down there in the hub,
- 25:04Speaker 1: tell them the move it. I like that idea. Call
- 25:06Speaker 1: the guys in the hub yeah, make them do your bidding.
- 25:08Speaker 1: There the one in seven. They're on a roll. Miami
- 25:14Speaker 1: Dolphins are visiting the Indianapolis Colts. There ten point underdogs.
- 25:18Speaker 1: We don't know if Jacoby Brissett is playing, but Brian
- 25:20Speaker 1: Hoyer looks pretty good. Is there any throw he can
- 25:22Speaker 1: make the Brissette camp make look better. It's like you're
- 25:28Speaker 1: mad at me. Now you're throwing shots at me. You
- 25:32Speaker 1: know you said something silly, but you raised an interesting
- 25:37Speaker 1: point that I was going to ask in a more eloquent,
- 25:40Speaker 1: thoughtful way. That adds substance to how people are thinking
- 25:44Speaker 1: about these games versus just taking pot shots. Which is
- 25:48Speaker 1: what is the point spread differential between Jacoby Brissette and
- 25:52Speaker 1: Brian Hoyer? Uh three and a half to four? Is
- 25:56Speaker 1: this line? This line will be easily fourteen if he's
- 26:00Speaker 1: if he's a percent. So the thing of it is is,
- 26:04Speaker 1: again I always qualify UH player like that that's starting
- 26:09Speaker 1: versus him being a hundred percent healthy. So he would
- 26:13Speaker 1: have to start and be healthy for to be fourteen.
- 26:16Speaker 1: So probably looking at more like thirteen because he won't
- 26:19Speaker 1: be a percent. And that point makes a difference. And
- 26:22Speaker 1: the first couple of bets out of the gate were
- 26:25Speaker 1: on the Dolphins. So the Dolphins have covered what three,
- 26:32Speaker 1: three or four? I mean then they've covered like the
- 26:34Speaker 1: last three or four games we've talked about last week,
- 26:36Speaker 1: and that's why you bet him on the money line
- 26:37Speaker 1: and Scooch Roulette because it was just a great spot
- 26:41Speaker 1: for them, and we felt like, uh, you know, as
- 26:44Speaker 1: bad as they started the year with all the turmoil
- 26:47Speaker 1: and unloading players, they played the last few games with
- 26:50Speaker 1: a lot of heart and you could see that the
- 26:52Speaker 1: morale was actually there and and as opposed to kind
- 26:55Speaker 1: of the Jets, who just feel like they're in a
- 26:57Speaker 1: downward spiral. But yeah, the Dolphins once again. I mean,
- 27:01Speaker 1: if you're talking about the value getting double digits even
- 27:05Speaker 1: against a team like the Colts, Yeah, that's that's the play.
- 27:08Speaker 1: I agree. That's a no brainer to me. Take the Fins.
- 27:11Speaker 1: I've liked him. It's like they're one of those teams
- 27:14Speaker 1: where I've been betting on him the past few weeks
- 27:16Speaker 1: and getting paid and I feel really good about it. Um.
- 27:19Speaker 1: I just hope, like the bandwagon doesn't get so heavy
- 27:22Speaker 1: that the wheels fall off. Yeah, the early the public actually,
- 27:26Speaker 1: they they've probably they turned a little bit with the Dolphins,
- 27:29Speaker 1: and we're seeing pretty good two way actually even from
- 27:32Speaker 1: the general public on this one. So I don't think
- 27:34Speaker 1: we're gonna see this number get driven up by the public.
- 27:37Speaker 1: So if anything, it will come down Los Angeles Rams
- 27:40Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites on the road at Pittsburgh.
- 27:43Speaker 1: Pittsburgh showed up, but they're an out of vinitary shank
- 27:47Speaker 1: away from losing that game and being three and five
- 27:50Speaker 1: and not being the side that wins. Is like a
- 27:53Speaker 1: short home favorite or a short home dog. The bets
- 27:58Speaker 1: about sixty the money on the Rams here. Yeah, as
- 28:05Speaker 1: bad as the Rams started the season and they had
- 28:08Speaker 1: their spell where we downgraded them slightly, Um, we had
- 28:13Speaker 1: a number of NFC teams kind of jumped them in
- 28:16Speaker 1: the rankings. Uh, over the course of the first four
- 28:19Speaker 1: or five weeks, I think they've turned the corner. I think,
- 28:23Speaker 1: you know, essentially it's the same team back that that
- 28:25Speaker 1: made it to the Super Bowl last year. So the
- 28:28Speaker 1: talent levels there, uh, their their offense was just struggling
- 28:32Speaker 1: early on that I think I think we're gonna see
- 28:34Speaker 1: that that same Rams team in the second half of
- 28:36Speaker 1: the season that made it to the Super Bowl last year.
- 28:39Speaker 1: So we want to be high on them. We opened
- 28:42Speaker 1: four and a half. We took a couple of big
- 28:43Speaker 1: bets on the Steelers. Public is on the Rams at
- 28:46Speaker 1: about a two and a half to one ratio with
- 28:49Speaker 1: us at least um. This is one of the games
- 28:52Speaker 1: that the general public is just going to see a
- 28:55Speaker 1: short number. So we want to be as high as possible,
- 28:58Speaker 1: and we'll let the We'll let the sharp guys get
- 29:01Speaker 1: us heavy and straight bets on the Steelers, knowing that
- 29:03Speaker 1: we're going to be heavy and parleys on the Rams. Ah,
- 29:08Speaker 1: you mean the Millments, the Millmans. We're gonna let the
- 29:11Speaker 1: Millmans take as much as they want on the Steelers
- 29:13Speaker 1: because we know we're gonna get plenty of parley money
- 29:16Speaker 1: on the Rams. I just wanna, I wanna be sure
- 29:18Speaker 1: that we're talking Carolina four and a half point dog
- 29:24Speaker 1: now on the road at Green Bay. What a fascinating game.
- 29:30Speaker 1: Carolina comes out dominates this past weekend, um in a
- 29:36Speaker 1: game that I think a lot of people had a
- 29:37Speaker 1: hard time handicapping a week after getting annihilated by the Niners,
- 29:42Speaker 1: where everybody thought they were the right side as five
- 29:44Speaker 1: and a half point dogs, or maybe even as straight
- 29:47Speaker 1: up underdogs Green Bay back at home getting beat up
- 29:51Speaker 1: by the Chargers after getting the bets. How do you
- 29:56Speaker 1: make this number? Man? What do you have it at?
- 29:58Speaker 1: This is a tough one. And we've got more action
- 30:00Speaker 1: on this game, all one side, and then we have
- 30:02Speaker 1: on any game on the board. So we hung the
- 30:04Speaker 1: Packers minus six again. So we have the Packers, you know,
- 30:09Speaker 1: right up there at the top of the NFC, you know,
- 30:11Speaker 1: obviously with the Saints and the Rams and the Niners,
- 30:15Speaker 1: and so there's We're gonna say. We knew we were
- 30:19Speaker 1: going to see a high line, and I'm surprised at
- 30:22Speaker 1: just how much the sharp guys waited on the Panthers.
- 30:25Speaker 1: They took six, they took five and a half. Um,
- 30:28Speaker 1: they're taking four and a half. We went straight from
- 30:30Speaker 1: five and a half to four and a half. We
- 30:31Speaker 1: skipped five. Uh, they were just all over the Panthers
- 30:35Speaker 1: in this one. So I could see this going down
- 30:38Speaker 1: to four. Um, I'm not sure if anyone's at four yet.
- 30:41Speaker 1: I don't think so. But no, actually we're we're one
- 30:45Speaker 1: of the only four and a half. There's a lot
- 30:46Speaker 1: of fives out there still, so but they're still taking
- 30:51Speaker 1: taking the Panthers in this one. I think by game
- 30:54Speaker 1: day we're still going to see plenty of public money
- 30:56Speaker 1: on the Packers, So I think I'm okay with this
- 30:59Speaker 1: one as well. Taken a lot of straight pat money
- 31:01Speaker 1: on the Panthers. Yeah, that's a tough one. The only
- 31:05Speaker 1: thing is it reminds me a little bit of the
- 31:07Speaker 1: Seattle Buccaneers game last week where we also opened six
- 31:11Speaker 1: and a half, went down to four and then ended
- 31:13Speaker 1: up getting middles on it. So just kind of the
- 31:17Speaker 1: same dynamics so far seeing that line get driven down
- 31:20Speaker 1: and then we'll probably watch the public drive it right
- 31:23Speaker 1: back up. Dallas is a three point favorite at home
- 31:27Speaker 1: against Minnesota. What is this line? Before the Cowboys game
- 31:33Speaker 1: last night, it was only two and a half. So
- 31:36Speaker 1: then if the Cowboys lose, what is this line? Uh?
- 31:40Speaker 1: Probably one and ha, I don't think we would make
- 31:43Speaker 1: more than a one point adjustment either way on that game.
- 31:47Speaker 1: I like Minnesota here, so Minnesota coming off of that loss. Um,
- 31:52Speaker 1: this is a tough one. And this is kind of
- 31:53Speaker 1: a one of the bookmaker's dreams where you get two
- 31:57Speaker 1: great teams, they're both evenly mats, So it's really the
- 32:00Speaker 1: home field that's deciding the line here. So the three points,
- 32:04Speaker 1: I think it's solid. I don't think we move this line.
- 32:06Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think we'll move to two
- 32:08Speaker 1: and a half or three and a half. If anything,
- 32:10Speaker 1: we'll just move the money on this game. But uh, yeah,
- 32:13Speaker 1: this one's kind of the game we just watch and enjoy. Yeah, right,
- 32:17Speaker 1: like you can just hold it, hold tight. Now you're
- 32:20Speaker 1: on the right number, the lands on three grade. You've
- 32:23Speaker 1: made the right move. Um, and everyone else would sort
- 32:25Speaker 1: of do your work for you. Big, big Monday night game,
- 32:30Speaker 1: the undefeated forty Niners the seven and two Seattle Seahawks,
- 32:33Speaker 1: massive game. I think the Seahawks are massively overrated. They
- 32:37Speaker 1: really just seem like the Russell Wilson's at this point. Uh.
- 32:40Speaker 1: And they are six and a half point road dogs.
- 32:44Speaker 1: And I would go with the Niners all day if
- 32:46Speaker 1: I'm getting half a point underneath the touchdown man oh
- 32:49Speaker 1: man of Chevits. Yeah. I've talked about the Niners all
- 32:53Speaker 1: year and how slow we've been kind of gradually upgrading
- 32:56Speaker 1: their their rankings, and we've been kind of taking it
- 32:58Speaker 1: on the chin. And but we got we got lucky
- 33:02Speaker 1: with one game against the Redskins, where they only want
- 33:06Speaker 1: nine to nothing as ten point favorites. But we uh,
- 33:09Speaker 1: I think we were right on the money on that
- 33:11Speaker 1: Thursday night game where we talked a little bit about
- 33:13Speaker 1: how laying double digits even against a team like the Cardinals. Uh,
- 33:17Speaker 1: they were just so massively upgraded over the course of
- 33:20Speaker 1: the first seven eight weeks that every bit of value
- 33:23Speaker 1: had been taken out of them. And even though they're
- 33:25Speaker 1: very capable of, you know, scoring forty points and blowing
- 33:28Speaker 1: a team out again, in the long haul, you have
- 33:31Speaker 1: to keep betting those big underdogs. This case is a
- 33:34Speaker 1: little bit different. I think if Seattle was at home
- 33:36Speaker 1: getting some points would be a lot different. But uh,
- 33:39Speaker 1: the forty Niners. We we didn't adjust the forty niners
- 33:43Speaker 1: at all, even with the loss, uh, with with not
- 33:45Speaker 1: covering on Thursday night, so we left them the same
- 33:49Speaker 1: power rankings. Seattle downgraded a little bit um only because
- 33:55Speaker 1: when a line moves the way it did like last
- 33:57Speaker 1: week against the Buccaneers from six and a half down
- 33:59Speaker 1: to four, then we've made a mistake as bookmakers. And
- 34:02Speaker 1: even though we can get lucky, we never want to
- 34:04Speaker 1: see a two and a half three point line move
- 34:07Speaker 1: without key injuries, so that indicates that we were probably
- 34:10Speaker 1: had the Seahawks ranked a little too high, so a
- 34:13Speaker 1: little bit of an adjustment on them. Uh so otherwise
- 34:18Speaker 1: this line would have been even higher. Scooch guess what
- 34:21Speaker 1: time it is? Uh? Scooch we let we're going to
- 34:24Speaker 1: play some Scooch ru let. I believe I won last week.
- 34:35Speaker 1: You did, so you should definitely go. Did you end
- 34:37Speaker 1: up having I went with the Packers lost, I did, Yeah.
- 34:42Speaker 1: I really thought the Packers were gonna gonna defy the logic.
- 34:47Speaker 1: I went with the Mimi Dolphins on the main one.
- 34:51Speaker 1: That was sweet pretty much you get extra points for
- 34:53Speaker 1: that one. Should should get extra points. So who am
- 34:57Speaker 1: I going to take this week? You're going with the
- 34:59Speaker 1: Dolphins and en I feel like God, this is tough.
- 35:07Speaker 1: Give me the Lions plus two and a half. Lions
- 35:10Speaker 1: plus two and a half. I was looking at that one.
- 35:12Speaker 1: I absolutely have to go with the Cincinnati Bengals. That
- 35:17Speaker 1: was gonna be my either choice, and I just could
- 35:19Speaker 1: not pull the trigger on the Angles. It's tough. I've
- 35:21Speaker 1: I've went with them a couple of times this year
- 35:23Speaker 1: and they've they've let me down before. But like I said,
- 35:26Speaker 1: they kept the last game against the Ravens pretty close,
- 35:30Speaker 1: lost by six. Now they're getting ten at home. They
- 35:32Speaker 1: can hang with them. All right. We soon shall see
- 35:38Speaker 1: Scooch Bob Scucci from New Orleans and board Gaming representing
- 35:43Speaker 1: all those books in the state of Nevada throughout the country.
- 35:47Speaker 1: Thank you for coming on your podcast, sir, Thanks for
- 35:49Speaker 1: having me on my podcast. See buddy. All right, As promised,
- 35:53Speaker 1: Darren Revel is joining me. We're gonna talk about our
- 35:55Speaker 1: Westgates Super Contest picks. In a few minutes. We'll bring
- 35:58Speaker 1: on Professional Better Simon Hunter, who's gonna gauge our choices,
- 36:04Speaker 1: great our choices and give us something better if we
- 36:07Speaker 1: need to. Last week, Darren, you and I went four
- 36:10Speaker 1: oh and one. We are doing really well because the
- 36:12Speaker 1: week before we went three and two. We have not
- 36:14Speaker 1: had a lot of losing weeks in this contest. Before
- 36:17Speaker 1: we get going, people need to start looking out for
- 36:20Speaker 1: and we'll we'll tease this more on Twitter tomorrow when
- 36:23Speaker 1: it's all set up. You're gonna do a video about this.
- 36:26Speaker 1: But I do want to let people know that pretty
- 36:29Speaker 1: soon we're gonna be launching a promo with Points Bet
- 36:33Speaker 1: called Fade Revel and it basically gives everybody on the
- 36:39Speaker 1: internet a chance to do what they love most, which
- 36:42Speaker 1: is find a way to troll you in a tangible way.
- 36:47Speaker 1: Because points bet is going to give an odds boost
- 36:51Speaker 1: to any game you pick. You're gonna take one side
- 36:55Speaker 1: and the fans are going to get a chance to
- 36:57Speaker 1: bet against you at better odds on the other side.
- 37:00Speaker 1: I don't want to say what game we're picking yet.
- 37:02Speaker 1: You're gonna introduce it all tomorrow on Twitter. It's Tuesday afternoon.
- 37:05Speaker 1: It'll all be set up and ready to go up
- 37:07Speaker 1: points betu dot com tomorrow. People will have to look
- 37:11Speaker 1: for it. Um, you'll you'll put in the promo code
- 37:14Speaker 1: fade Revolt. I'm a little premature here because it's not
- 37:16Speaker 1: all set up yet, so we gotta get it ready.
- 37:18Speaker 1: Um but I'm super excited about are you excited about it?
- 37:21Speaker 1: And then and there's one more element, which is that
- 37:24Speaker 1: if you win, you get your money at boosted odds.
- 37:27Speaker 1: But that means I lose and I have to do
- 37:30Speaker 1: something very bad so and and we will have to
- 37:34Speaker 1: show evidence of me doing that. So there's an added
- 37:38Speaker 1: element of when you win and I lose, well, not
- 37:41Speaker 1: only are going to show the evidence. Like, it's going
- 37:43Speaker 1: to be pretty public and pretty embarrassing, and it most
- 37:47Speaker 1: likely will be in the middle of New York City,
- 37:48Speaker 1: in the most populated space, doing something that puts you
- 37:52Speaker 1: in a spot that you won't be able to tell
- 37:54Speaker 1: your wife. Yes, I actually did pre tell my wife
- 37:58Speaker 1: one of the first ideas and she said, you're not
- 38:00Speaker 1: doing that, and um, I just said, okay, we'll talk
- 38:05Speaker 1: about it. So that's how bad it is, folks. And
- 38:09Speaker 1: it's your opportunity to profit off of going against Danni Ravel,
- 38:13Speaker 1: which is literally really all anybody wants to do. Darren,
- 38:18Speaker 1: Let's make some choices. What do you think? Okay, talk
- 38:24Speaker 1: to me. So, uh, you are probably not going to
- 38:30Speaker 1: agree with one of my picks this week, but my
- 38:34Speaker 1: goal is to get one into you and then you
- 38:38Speaker 1: maybe take two because you're more experienced, and Simon gives
- 38:41Speaker 1: us two. We'll see. Anyway, here we go. I like
- 38:45Speaker 1: all the big spreads this week, and I want to
- 38:47Speaker 1: take advantage of them. Two on the plus side and
- 38:52Speaker 1: one on the minus side. The most popular bet of
- 38:56Speaker 1: the week, the Joe is too square. Public bet of
- 38:59Speaker 1: the week is gonna be Baltimore minus ten, and I
- 39:05Speaker 1: like it, and I know that you don't like it.
- 39:10Speaker 1: Uh So I like Baltimore minus ten, hate it with
- 39:14Speaker 1: the heat of a thousand Sons so much that I like,
- 39:17Speaker 1: I'm practically betting the Bengals right now. I know because
- 39:21Speaker 1: the first of all, um, obviously I don't have any
- 39:24Speaker 1: face in Andy Dalton, in and eight Andy Dalton. Obviously
- 39:27Speaker 1: you have the very uh public last game bias of
- 39:33Speaker 1: the beating the Patriot. Andy Dalton's not even playing this weekend?
- 39:38Speaker 1: What Andy Dalton's no longer the starter for the Cincinnati Bengals.
- 39:41Speaker 1: Oh no, he's not right exactly, but still but still
- 39:45Speaker 1: minus ten. I love it. No what else you gout?
- 39:51Speaker 1: Atlanta plus thirteam. See, here's the thing. I love the
- 39:57Speaker 1: Saints here, love him not at that number. Not at
- 40:03Speaker 1: that number? What about the Saints at that number? Don't
- 40:06Speaker 1: you like? You don't like that Drew Brees came back
- 40:09Speaker 1: and covered. You don't like that Teddy Bridgewater could beat
- 40:12Speaker 1: the Sick, could beat the Falcons by thirteen points. You
- 40:15Speaker 1: don't like that the Falcons have yet to show up
- 40:17Speaker 1: for a game and their team is in a free
- 40:19Speaker 1: fall and they can't play with their coach and Matt Ryan,
- 40:21Speaker 1: if he's playing, is coming off an injury. That this
- 40:23Speaker 1: team is soft. They haven't done anything in five years,
- 40:26Speaker 1: and that includes not winning the Super Bowl when they
- 40:28Speaker 1: were up three. What don't you like about betting against
- 40:31Speaker 1: the Falcons at two points as two touchdown dogs. Yeah,
- 40:36Speaker 1: it's just a very high number that I'm not confident in.
- 40:38Speaker 1: But but maybe you can convince. But you're confident in
- 40:41Speaker 1: the Bank and the you're confident in the Ravens on
- 40:43Speaker 1: the road off of a huge public win, but you're
- 40:47Speaker 1: not confident in the Saints at home with a Hall
- 40:50Speaker 1: of Fame quarterback. Yes, I want a Favorabelle so badly
- 40:54Speaker 1: right now? What's next? Giant minus two and a half? Okay, Jet?
- 41:02Speaker 1: The Jets are that bad and two and a half
- 41:04Speaker 1: is just you know, the Giants stuck with the Cowboys
- 41:08Speaker 1: for a little bit. Um, I've had a bad run
- 41:13Speaker 1: for Danny Dimes. But I think the Jets are terrible
- 41:17Speaker 1: and two and a half is not a bad number.
- 41:20Speaker 1: I don't hate that. I don't hate that at all.
- 41:23Speaker 1: And then you know what, I don't know, I just
- 41:26Speaker 1: I feel so good about Miami. Um me too, you know,
- 41:32Speaker 1: And it's not just from the first win. I felt
- 41:34Speaker 1: good about them for a couple of weeks. It magic
- 41:37Speaker 1: completely agree. I I he him being I just think
- 41:44Speaker 1: he is the oddsmakers don't really haven't really accounted for
- 41:49Speaker 1: what he can do, just because their record is so bad.
- 41:52Speaker 1: I think they're serviceable now. Before they had no offense
- 41:55Speaker 1: and no defense. And if you're going to give me
- 41:59Speaker 1: ten and a half on Miami, they are a different
- 42:01Speaker 1: team than they were to start the season. I like
- 42:04Speaker 1: that number. Also, I don't know Jacoby Brissetta is playing.
- 42:10Speaker 1: We don't know that yet. We don't know that yet. Okay,
- 42:14Speaker 1: so it depends on what will happen by Thursday where
- 42:17Speaker 1: we have to lock it. And now I'm going to
- 42:19Speaker 1: do something I've never done before. I feel like we
- 42:23Speaker 1: should play a game, but I don't know which way.
- 42:27Speaker 1: Cleveland Ballo, I'll tell you which way. I'll tell you
- 42:30Speaker 1: I like that game. It's West. I'll tell you which way. Really,
- 42:37Speaker 1: we're taking the Browns. Yeah, I agree, I want so listen.
- 42:42Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Browns in Miami. Yep.
- 42:45Speaker 1: So we can go in with those yep. All right?
- 42:51Speaker 1: Uh And we are on total opposite sides on the
- 42:54Speaker 1: Bengals in the Cities. Simon Hunter, and now a word
- 43:04Speaker 1: from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. How you doing, dude?
- 43:13Speaker 1: You different this studio? Yeah, we do right, We sound
- 43:16Speaker 1: very fancy. We are in the Broadway Video studio. Broadway Video,
- 43:22Speaker 1: you know, producer of many, many, many fine films and
- 43:26Speaker 1: television shows. Uh. Lauren Michaels, Lauren Michaels Saturday Night Live.
- 43:35Speaker 1: You know, I thought it was porn Broadway Video, and
- 43:41Speaker 1: I don't know it sounded like that. It does sound
- 43:43Speaker 1: a little bit like eighties pornershe I agree with you.
- 43:46Speaker 1: It's always at the end with the custodial records number
- 43:49Speaker 1: or whatever. But look, at the end of the day,
- 43:50Speaker 1: it's Lauren Michael. So you can name it whatever he
- 43:52Speaker 1: wants and it's gonna sound cool. Simon four oh in
- 43:57Speaker 1: one last week, thanks to you. I appreciate the help,
- 44:00Speaker 1: as does Darren. Um. I felt like we came out
- 44:03Speaker 1: of last week with six good choices. Um. The Bucks
- 44:06Speaker 1: broke our heart by, you know, giving up a touchdown
- 44:10Speaker 1: and over time that was a push. But Darren and
- 44:13Speaker 1: I have run through some games. There's two we agree
- 44:16Speaker 1: on right now too that we violently oppose each other. Okay,
- 44:20Speaker 1: you're ready, but before we go, okay, let me just
- 44:25Speaker 1: say that it was definitely one of those things where
- 44:29Speaker 1: if Darren just had slept through that check, we'd be
- 44:33Speaker 1: sitting here five and oh. But he just had to
- 44:35Speaker 1: wake up that week and had to say. It's one
- 44:40Speaker 1: of these things where it's my my job is professional.
- 44:42Speaker 1: It's funny that, like, you know, it's not other professional jobs.
- 44:47Speaker 1: And you know, Joe Schmaltz the street side, I know
- 44:50Speaker 1: just as much as this guy who does this for
- 44:52Speaker 1: a living. So it's one of those where I don't
- 44:55Speaker 1: want to be yelling at and but I come on
- 44:56Speaker 1: and I say, for my number one pick of my contests,
- 44:59Speaker 1: the char Justice, and we switched that went out. I
- 45:02Speaker 1: was heartbroken, but it's like, we don't know the future.
- 45:04Speaker 1: We got unlucky with that Bucks one. But I hate
- 45:06Speaker 1: that we're so close to five and oh, but at
- 45:09Speaker 1: least you wanted to see it. So I'm really really excited.
- 45:11Speaker 1: I think we're only five and a half or six
- 45:13Speaker 1: back of the league, so we're halfway through. Boys, We're
- 45:16Speaker 1: doing really good. Yeah, I'm gonna stop. We should not
- 45:20Speaker 1: really talk too much during the games anymore because I
- 45:22Speaker 1: feel like I feel like I get too excited, and
- 45:26Speaker 1: you know, it's it's an it's nice camaraderie, but I
- 45:29Speaker 1: don't think it's worth it. When the football gods turned
- 45:31Speaker 1: against me for doing for talking early, I don't think
- 45:35Speaker 1: I even realized, um that it was ravel who cost
- 45:40Speaker 1: us that win. I did. Yeah, like as you said,
- 45:44Speaker 1: you texted back and you said not like, yeah, let's
- 45:46Speaker 1: drop the bucks and just keeop what we have. And
- 45:49Speaker 1: he he made me break down why I like the Chargers,
- 45:52Speaker 1: and like I told him, it's just one of these spots.
- 45:54Speaker 1: There's only a couple of years where it's a home
- 45:57Speaker 1: dog that's comfortable, like a solid team that's getting a
- 46:03Speaker 1: left of percentage of the bet. So like in my mind,
- 46:05Speaker 1: I just didn't see the charters not covering that three now.
- 46:08Speaker 1: But like he said, he's the public. Any public person
- 46:11Speaker 1: was in the Green Bay. That's that's how they fall
- 46:13Speaker 1: from traps. That that's the Vega sleeves. So that's that's
- 46:17Speaker 1: what's it's a part people like me that can just
- 46:19Speaker 1: see see what Vegas is doing. And that's what like, like,
- 46:22Speaker 1: this weekend was a huge weekend for me because I
- 46:24Speaker 1: love home dogs and I feel like almost every home
- 46:27Speaker 1: dog hit for me on the money line, so it
- 46:29Speaker 1: was a good week they did except for except for
- 46:33Speaker 1: the Giant Cardinals and the Cardinals, Yeah, that was really disappointing. Well, listen,
- 46:41Speaker 1: here's what we love so far, Simon. And by the way,
- 46:43Speaker 1: I have breaking news in the podcast. I'm just waiting
- 46:46Speaker 1: on confirmation and I will announce it as soon as
- 46:49Speaker 1: it's ready. But here's what we like so far. We
- 46:53Speaker 1: love the Browns minus three against the Bills, and we
- 46:56Speaker 1: both love Miami plus ten against the Colts. And do
- 47:04Speaker 1: we know do we know yet if we sets playing
- 47:06Speaker 1: in this um this game? We don't so uh. I
- 47:11Speaker 1: think we gotta wait until, like we can get a
- 47:13Speaker 1: little bit closer and get the official lines and that
- 47:15Speaker 1: might help us make a decision. But even if playing
- 47:18Speaker 1: the line's gonna move to thirteen or fourteen, I'm still
- 47:21Speaker 1: gonna like the Dolphins in that spot. Yeah, I mean,
- 47:25Speaker 1: it's hard for me to talk to you guys off
- 47:26Speaker 1: of that one. Um that define n feels like one
- 47:29Speaker 1: of those let down spots for the Dolphins after the
- 47:32Speaker 1: first one of the season. But the Colts don't get
- 47:37Speaker 1: these clues. They make mistakes all along the way and
- 47:39Speaker 1: they keep teams close. I do like that Dolphins line, um,
- 47:45Speaker 1: but it is interesting to see because it is like
- 47:47Speaker 1: it is a nice little let down spot for them
- 47:49Speaker 1: after their first win. What do you have that model
- 47:52Speaker 1: that I like? I like the value, I gotta do it.
- 47:56Speaker 1: I think I got it at fourteen and I came
- 48:00Speaker 1: out I think fifteen, and then all the Sharks just
- 48:03Speaker 1: hit it real quick and they took it off the
- 48:05Speaker 1: board and then they reopened it at this eleven. So
- 48:08Speaker 1: I spoke they were getting good value because I'm I
- 48:10Speaker 1: readjusted it and I got it at ten, so we're
- 48:12Speaker 1: getting a point of value. Um. But it's all. It's
- 48:16Speaker 1: all depends on the first that's gonna play or not.
- 48:18Speaker 1: But I do like that bell from the slide and
- 48:20Speaker 1: then with the Browns, that's that's a swanline by you guys.
- 48:24Speaker 1: So that's one of those where people are gonna be
- 48:27Speaker 1: hyping up the bills and Cleveland's coming in as a
- 48:30Speaker 1: wounded dog. Get didn't probably know. No one's probably betting
- 48:34Speaker 1: on Cleveland, especially after last Super last week. It wasn't
- 48:37Speaker 1: really in their fault. They're just walking into a bad spot.
- 48:39Speaker 1: It's cleven that there. They're a bad team. I'm not
- 48:42Speaker 1: gonna lie like just watching them, they're just functional. They
- 48:45Speaker 1: don't look like they're having a good time. But this
- 48:46Speaker 1: is a nice get lad spot for Cleveland. Um, but
- 48:49Speaker 1: we can put that on a sidecas it's a tough
- 48:53Speaker 1: week where there's a bunch of teams on a boy.
- 48:54Speaker 1: But we have to always keep in mind ourselves. We
- 48:57Speaker 1: want to we want to back Cleveland. We do want
- 48:59Speaker 1: to back the way the way Baker looked, the way
- 49:02Speaker 1: Baker looked deaf for I mean, that was that was
- 49:04Speaker 1: something else. I mean he I think he was doing that.
- 49:08Speaker 1: He was doing that just a method you guys in
- 49:10Speaker 1: the media. Man, that's how you like. That's how young
- 49:13Speaker 1: people are. They just they're just trying to screw with
- 49:14Speaker 1: you guys. But that was hilarious about him. Listen to
- 49:17Speaker 1: fucking Simon Simon next like he's like, you know, a
- 49:20Speaker 1: media condoseur. Now he's on he's on one podcast and
- 49:23Speaker 1: he's like, yeah, the players are just messing with you
- 49:26Speaker 1: guys in the media. Simon here three times in one day,
- 49:30Speaker 1: three times in one day, Simon, here's the two games
- 49:35Speaker 1: that we violently disagree on. I love the Bengals at
- 49:40Speaker 1: plus nine and a half or ten. I love the
- 49:43Speaker 1: Saints at minus thirteen. Darren is on the opposite side
- 49:46Speaker 1: of both of those. I'm with you on both. I like, uh,
- 49:52Speaker 1: obviously I don't. I don't really see how you can
- 49:58Speaker 1: like Atlanta. What have they shown you that think they
- 50:00Speaker 1: can go? Indeed, the Saints off by one of the
- 50:03Speaker 1: best defense is one of the best offenses. You're trying
- 50:07Speaker 1: to do, You're trying to do the sharp angle, but
- 50:10Speaker 1: I feel like the smart sharp size. Definitely that since
- 50:12Speaker 1: the game, like it's a nice smush like in between
- 50:16Speaker 1: the Ravens just beat the Patriots. They played this game
- 50:19Speaker 1: and then they come home to play the Texas. So
- 50:22Speaker 1: this this this fee is like a really good spot
- 50:24Speaker 1: for since to hear with the plus twn dude, right now,
- 50:28Speaker 1: we're basically going into this weekend loving Miami, Cleveland and Cincinnati. Darren,
- 50:34Speaker 1: we have gone full sharp and you like the Saint.
- 50:37Speaker 1: I mean, let's let's we like the Saints too, right,
- 50:41Speaker 1: I like to Saints. Well this this week I actually
- 50:43Speaker 1: do like um, I do like more chalk Davids, Like
- 50:47Speaker 1: I really like. And it's like a weird thing because
- 50:51Speaker 1: everyone just saw Green Bay and dominative. I like Green
- 50:54Speaker 1: Bay coming home here playing Carolina after Caroline had a
- 50:57Speaker 1: big green big win. Because I know people everyone's stall
- 51:02Speaker 1: getting mccaffre turn VP and he's the real deal. But
- 51:05Speaker 1: I don't see this God Alan dueling with Aaron Rodgers
- 51:09Speaker 1: in Green Bed in Lambeau. I like, like, what do
- 51:15Speaker 1: you have that power? Raided Simon. We're not getting crazy
- 51:19Speaker 1: value unfortunately. I mean I liked it that it was
- 51:22Speaker 1: four and a half. Now I'm seeing most folks with
- 51:24Speaker 1: that five. I got it a minus seven Green Bay.
- 51:26Speaker 1: So it's kind of like last week Redigos id Ego's
- 51:29Speaker 1: minus seven. It's the same exact kind of spot where
- 51:32Speaker 1: it's a home team. Getting there just shortened us a
- 51:34Speaker 1: little bit because people are thinking Caroline is a pretty
- 51:36Speaker 1: good team, where I just think they're a different team
- 51:39Speaker 1: on the road. Jesus, you got it a minus seven?
- 51:42Speaker 1: Did you bet? In August? No? No, I'm saying that's
- 51:46Speaker 1: what I got into my systems. I took the minus.
- 51:50Speaker 1: I took the minus four and a half already, and
- 51:52Speaker 1: now we're teaming up to minus five. So other Sharks
- 51:54Speaker 1: must be hitting it too, all right, it's kind of
- 51:57Speaker 1: this is like this is a weird week where there
- 51:59Speaker 1: there is a lot of like like they're sharp lines,
- 52:02Speaker 1: but it's ones that's it's tough to take. Like the
- 52:05Speaker 1: Jets is a really smart spot this week. We don't
- 52:08Speaker 1: want to be taking the Jets. And another really sharp
- 52:11Speaker 1: smart spot is San frank where people are gonna be
- 52:15Speaker 1: looking at that and saying, wow, I'm getting six six
- 52:18Speaker 1: and a half with Russell Wilson. Why wouldn't you take that?
- 52:22Speaker 1: Like if people are still thinking Sant frans and over
- 52:24Speaker 1: eighteen because they just saw Arizona come all the way
- 52:27Speaker 1: back on prime time against them, So I think you're
- 52:30Speaker 1: gonna actually getting value here on San Frank. I completely
- 52:34Speaker 1: agree with you. I was just saying a scooch in
- 52:37Speaker 1: the first half of the podcast. I like San Francisco
- 52:39Speaker 1: there a lot, Yeah, because like the Bucks once again Winston,
- 52:45Speaker 1: oh my god. But if if you just can put
- 52:49Speaker 1: together one good game, they should have beat them by
- 52:51Speaker 1: fourteen points. So I think they're the biggest FRAUDULYN seven
- 52:54Speaker 1: and two team right now. Then them in the builds.
- 52:57Speaker 1: Their records don't really indicate what kind of team they are,
- 53:00Speaker 1: which is why I like the Browns. So yeah, that's
- 53:03Speaker 1: why I give you guys in the Browns ones. But
- 53:05Speaker 1: that's that's the tough little swallow this week are gonna
- 53:08Speaker 1: kill ourselves. And we're like, wow, we're back to Browns
- 53:12Speaker 1: because we've been digging the browns. Bullet like you wanted
- 53:14Speaker 1: to take the Browns again last week and I talked
- 53:16Speaker 1: you off that ledge, thank God, But it's just should
- 53:19Speaker 1: we just stay we're here from the Browns. Wow, Let's
- 53:22Speaker 1: let's level set here. Let's say we like we don't
- 53:25Speaker 1: have two hours. Yeah, let's say we like green Bay,
- 53:29Speaker 1: San Francisco. Let's say green Bay San Francisco, the Bengals
- 53:35Speaker 1: and the Science. No, what about Miami. Well, I'm kind
- 53:41Speaker 1: of convincing that letdown spot. But if you love them,
- 53:43Speaker 1: what we can put them in there? How about green
- 53:45Speaker 1: Bay San Francisco, Bangles Miami? And then while we while
- 53:49Speaker 1: we put Miami's the switching for once we know what
- 53:51Speaker 1: the deals in the burst shut sign because I actually
- 53:55Speaker 1: I actually wasn't like I do I get it too,
- 53:57Speaker 1: because I like I like that number two? But alright,
- 54:01Speaker 1: green Bay San Francisco Bengals, Uh, simon, give us our
- 54:06Speaker 1: final two teams one of which will be switched out
- 54:08Speaker 1: if we like the Miami game. Gilliants, Come on, what
- 54:16Speaker 1: what were you thinking there? Giants? No? No, no, no, no, no.
- 54:23Speaker 1: I like I like the Jets there. Man, I know
- 54:26Speaker 1: they're they're horrible, They're absolutely horrible. But um I honestly
- 54:32Speaker 1: I like the one. I like the ones we have.
- 54:34Speaker 1: I said, we just keep we keep Miami's the other
- 54:38Speaker 1: the other games I'm looking at, I'm not getting the
- 54:41Speaker 1: crazy amount of value that like that. I would like
- 54:44Speaker 1: to take am like the Cowboys minus through I have
- 54:46Speaker 1: that line of minus story, but I do really like
- 54:49Speaker 1: the Cowboys in that spot. How about Green Bay, San
- 54:52Speaker 1: Francisco Bengals Browns, and then we choose between Miami and
- 54:57Speaker 1: the Saints depending on the line we see. Yeah, I
- 55:01Speaker 1: like Daniel Yes, boys voice a lot of words, But
- 55:10Speaker 1: hey man, it's any worth it if we're getting the money.
- 55:12Speaker 1: It's we got. We got. We got five games that
- 55:14Speaker 1: we like. We were four on one last week, three
- 55:16Speaker 1: and two of the week before. We are playing. Well,
- 55:19Speaker 1: I'm proud of you both. Simon Hunter Professional Better, Darren
- 55:23Speaker 1: Revel Professional Fader. Everybody get ready to go check out
- 55:27Speaker 1: Points Bet look for the promo code Fade revel Uh.
- 55:30Speaker 1: You're gonna see some fun stuff and you're gonna get
- 55:33Speaker 1: to get boosted odds in the game that Darren chooses.
- 55:37Speaker 1: If you bet against him, you're getting significantly better value.
- 55:41Speaker 1: This has been the favorites. Thank you, Thank you, Simon.
- 55:44Speaker 1: This has been the favorite from the Action Network downloaded
- 55:47Speaker 1: Apple podcast. Don't forget you put a review in there
- 55:49Speaker 1: that I like that I think is good. I'm sending
- 55:52Speaker 1: you an Action Network Cittie. They are great hoodies. You've
- 55:54Speaker 1: seen the pictures on the Twitter space. Downloaded from radio
- 55:58Speaker 1: dot Com. Search for the favorites. Whatever you get your podcasts.
- 56:01Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you, Hm.