Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Putin Ready for Ukraine Truce, Jobs Report
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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- 0:24Speaker 2: Alex Steel and Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg
- 0:26Speaker 2: Interactive Broker Studio streaming live on YouTube. Sohead every to
- 0:29Speaker 2: YouTube dot com search Bloomberg podcast now and that's where
- 0:32Speaker 2: you'll find us. Geopolitical news coming out of Ukraine and Russia.
- 0:36Speaker 2: Russia is willing to discuss a temporary Trucian truth in Ukraine,
- 0:40Speaker 2: provided there is progress toward a final peace settlement. That's
- 0:44Speaker 2: according to people familiar with the matter in Moscow. Let's
- 0:46Speaker 2: come more reporting on that. Ross Mathis and joins us
- 0:48Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa,
- 0:53Speaker 2: Ros What do you make of this news coming from
- 0:55Speaker 2: mister Putin?
- 0:56Speaker 3: How significant could it be?
- 0:59Speaker 4: Well, it is significant, As you were saying, we've had
- 1:02Speaker 4: the exclusive information that Vladimir Putin has indicated is open
- 1:07Speaker 4: to a short term truce on Ukraine with conditions, and
- 1:11Speaker 4: that this offer has been in fact conveyed to the Americans.
- 1:14Speaker 4: It was conveyed that meeting that was held in Saudi
- 1:16Speaker 4: Arabia last month, and it comes before there's talks between
- 1:20Speaker 4: the US and Ukraine also in Saudi Arabia early next week,
- 1:24Speaker 4: and the possibility after that of a direct meeting perhaps
- 1:27Speaker 4: between the presidents of the US and Russia. So what
- 1:30Speaker 4: this really indicates is that Vladimir Putin does is amenable
- 1:34Speaker 4: at least.
- 1:35Speaker 5: To looking at a sea spa in Ukraine.
- 1:37Speaker 4: He just wants to understand how that fits into the
- 1:40Speaker 4: broader trajectory towards a longer term piece in Ukraine. And
- 1:45Speaker 4: so he's got some conditions there that we've reported in
- 1:48Speaker 4: our story just out a short time ago.
- 1:49Speaker 6: So we just spoke quite a bit about potential peace
- 1:52Speaker 6: in Ukraine with no mention of Zelenski. So where is
- 1:55Speaker 6: Zelenski and Europe been on this potential seaspire.
- 1:58Speaker 3: Well, that's right.
- 1:59Speaker 4: Again, this may serve to feed concerns that Ukraine is
- 2:03Speaker 4: really a recipient in this case in terms of being
- 2:07Speaker 4: told this is what we're all talking about when it
- 2:10Speaker 4: comes to their own country, and that's been a concern
- 2:13Speaker 4: for weeks for Ukraine. But also for many a leader
- 2:16Speaker 4: in Europe, and the hope is that by having you know,
- 2:19Speaker 4: Zelinsky express regret for how things went down in that
- 2:23Speaker 4: recent Oval Office meeting with Donald Trump, that they can
- 2:26Speaker 4: reset a bit, get towards that minerals deal that was
- 2:29Speaker 4: supposed to be signed and wasn't signed, and then get
- 2:32Speaker 4: Ukraine back in the room in the conversation about a ceasefire,
- 2:35Speaker 4: because again the concern is, does this get driven very
- 2:38Speaker 4: much by the US and Russia and then Ukraine essentially
- 2:42Speaker 4: gets told what the parameters of this are and that's
- 2:44Speaker 4: got to be still a concern for Ukraine at this point.
- 2:48Speaker 3: Hi, Roz, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
- 2:50Speaker 2: Roz Matheson, Bloomberg News Director for Europe, the Middle East
- 2:53Speaker 2: and Africa, on President Putin said to be ready to
- 2:57Speaker 2: agree to a Ukraine truce with canitions want further reporting
- 3:01Speaker 2: on that round.
- 3:03Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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- 3:17Speaker 2: These markets are up there down and that's just in
- 3:19Speaker 2: the morning and trading. We've got yields coming in here,
- 3:22Speaker 2: the tenure Treasury four point two five percent yields are
- 3:25Speaker 2: moving as well. So again another volatle day for a
- 3:28Speaker 2: volatile week as the market tries to discount a lot
- 3:31Speaker 2: of policy coming on.
- 3:32Speaker 3: Washington, DC. Emily Rowland, she.
- 3:34Speaker 2: Gets paid to do this stuff, co chief investment strategist
- 3:36Speaker 2: at John Hancock Investment Management up there in Boston. Emily,
- 3:41Speaker 2: how do you kind of put all these cross currents?
- 3:45Speaker 2: How do you keep them straight and try to keep
- 3:46Speaker 2: the eye on the prize, which is longer term performance
- 3:49Speaker 2: for your funds.
- 3:52Speaker 7: Yeah, it's tough right now. The macro is really in
- 3:54Speaker 7: the driver's seed and investors are largely ignoring the fundamental
- 3:58Speaker 7: backdrop in particular of course, drivings a lot of the
- 4:02Speaker 7: cross asset action.
- 4:03Speaker 5: So it can be tough, you know, right now.
- 4:05Speaker 7: Admittedly, the US is experiencing a bit of a soft
- 4:08Speaker 7: patch economically speaking.
- 4:10Speaker 5: The data haven't been great.
- 4:12Speaker 7: But there have been some bright spots, certainly ism services
- 4:16Speaker 7: on Wednesday coming in at fifty three and a half
- 4:19Speaker 7: and the US Jobs report this morning coming in at
- 4:21Speaker 7: one hundred and fifty one thousand, very modest provisions.
- 4:25Speaker 5: To the last couple of months, so for now, the labor.
- 4:27Speaker 7: Market is actually on pretty solid footing. Of course, the
- 4:31Speaker 7: DOGE announcements around government layoffs haven't been factored into the data,
- 4:35Speaker 7: so we might need to sort of enjoy it while
- 4:37Speaker 7: we can, But the US labor market continues to be
- 4:40Speaker 7: the bright spot here as it relates to the economy.
- 4:44Speaker 6: What's interesting though, is today we have the Treasury Secretary
- 4:46Speaker 6: speaking on CNBC saying that there's going to be a
- 4:50Speaker 6: detox period for the market, that the market, the economy
- 4:53Speaker 6: has become hooked and we just got addicted to government
- 4:55Speaker 6: spending and now we're going to detox it. If that
- 4:58Speaker 6: indeed is the plan, right, we spending off of government spending,
- 5:02Speaker 6: put it on the private sector, lower rates in order
- 5:05Speaker 6: to incentivize spending, and then lower taxes as the kicker.
- 5:08Speaker 8: Do you need a transition for that.
- 5:11Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it's a pretty remarkable shift from the
- 5:14Speaker 7: relentless amount of fiscal spending that we've done over the
- 5:17Speaker 7: past couple of years. So, Alex, the starting points is
- 5:20Speaker 7: really high if you look at the jobs have been added.
- 5:23Speaker 7: Nancy Lazar's got some great statistics on this from Piper
- 5:26Speaker 7: Sandler about ninety five percent of the jobs that have
- 5:29Speaker 7: been added over the past year have been in government
- 5:31Speaker 7: and healthcare.
- 5:32Speaker 5: That's a massive amount.
- 5:34Speaker 7: So we're starting from a really tricky point here as
- 5:36Speaker 7: we impose some of this fiscal austerity, and you're seeing
- 5:39Speaker 7: it happen really across markets. Meanwhile, overseas, you've actually got
- 5:44Speaker 7: policy makers in areas like Germany that are proposing.
- 5:48Speaker 5: Spending measures there.
- 5:49Speaker 7: So we're seeing a bit of an opposite day play
- 5:52Speaker 7: out here in terms of less fiscal support in the
- 5:55Speaker 7: US and more fiscal support and areas that have previously
- 5:58Speaker 7: been very austere so Emily.
- 6:00Speaker 2: We had Gina Martin Adams from Bloomberg Intelligence on earlier
- 6:03Speaker 2: talking about she's seeing some rotation from the US equity
- 6:07Speaker 2: markets into Europe for just those reasons, concerns about growth here,
- 6:11Speaker 2: maybe some better expectations for your How are you guys
- 6:15Speaker 2: thinking about allocation geography geographically?
- 6:19Speaker 7: I mean, it is just remarkable to see some of
- 6:22Speaker 7: the moves that we've seen and the huge capital shift
- 6:26Speaker 7: to areas overseas. International markets just on a tear this year,
- 6:30Speaker 7: the European you know, the euro surging, so it's quite
- 6:35Speaker 7: notable we always don't look for a fundamental catalyst right now.
- 6:39Speaker 7: I think a lot of these moves are based on
- 6:41Speaker 7: political developments that we talked about. They're based on momentum
- 6:45Speaker 7: short covering potentially kind of sentiment and optimism driving those moves,
- 6:50Speaker 7: And when we look underneath the surface, we're really not
- 6:53Speaker 7: finding a meaningful shift in terms of the earning narrative.
- 6:57Speaker 7: Analysts are penciling in about twelve percent earning growth in
- 7:00Speaker 7: the United States this year. It's a little bit off
- 7:03Speaker 7: fifteen percent that was penciled in a couple of months ago,
- 7:06Speaker 7: but it's still pretty darn good. Meanwhile, you look overseas
- 7:10Speaker 7: at EFA and emerging market estimates, they're.
- 7:13Speaker 5: Not that great. They're in the low single digits.
- 7:16Speaker 7: So we're just not finding that catalyst from a fundamental standpoint.
- 7:20Speaker 7: You know, European markets right now, we're pricing in just
- 7:23Speaker 7: exceptional economic growth and exceptional earnings growth, and we just
- 7:28Speaker 7: don't see things looking that exceptional.
- 7:30Speaker 6: So does that mean that the amount of spending that
- 7:33Speaker 6: Germany is going to do you don't buy it or
- 7:35Speaker 6: you just don't see it to be immediate?
- 7:39Speaker 5: I think some of both.
- 7:40Speaker 7: I mean, we always come into this with a little
- 7:42Speaker 7: bit of skepticism, and its actual size of the spending
- 7:46Speaker 7: is still much less than what we spend here in
- 7:48Speaker 7: the United States, especially from a defense perspective. So we're
- 7:51Speaker 7: going to need to see how this plays out. We're
- 7:53Speaker 7: going to need to see if Germany can come out
- 7:56Speaker 7: of the slump that it's been in for some time
- 7:58Speaker 7: based on these measures once they get put into place.
- 8:01Speaker 7: But for now, we've got to focus on the fundamental trends,
- 8:04Speaker 7: and they're better here in the United States, especially for
- 8:07Speaker 7: US value stocks, where we're seeing meaningful acceleration in terms
- 8:11Speaker 7: of earnings estimates into twenty twenty five.
- 8:14Speaker 2: All right, so back here in the US here, talk
- 8:17Speaker 2: to us about opportunities and fixed income. I'm hearing more
- 8:19Speaker 2: and more people say, boy, with this uncertainty out there,
- 8:22Speaker 2: I'm just going to go clip a coupon, you know,
- 8:24Speaker 2: and I'll come back in six or twelve months.
- 8:26Speaker 7: Yeah, we really like the income that's available in high
- 8:29Speaker 7: quality bonds right now, with the aggregate bond index yielding
- 8:32Speaker 7: about four and a half percent, it's really competitive versus equities.
- 8:36Speaker 7: So you know, we're sitting at elevated valuations around twenty
- 8:39Speaker 7: one and a half times forward earnings on the equity market,
- 8:42Speaker 7: I mean, still not terrible, but not great. And meanwhile
- 8:47Speaker 7: you're getting a discount on bonds. We saw a pretty
- 8:50Speaker 7: meaningful backup this week as bonds traded in sympathy with
- 8:53Speaker 7: German boons, which just saw the big about a forty
- 8:56Speaker 7: basis point increase over the course of the week, which
- 8:58Speaker 7: is the biggest over twenty years.
- 9:01Speaker 5: But we would look at.
- 9:02Speaker 7: Those backups as opportunities to lean in if the economic
- 9:05Speaker 7: data continue to disappoint at the margin, if this soft
- 9:09Speaker 7: patch continues, we think US bonds here get a bid
- 9:13Speaker 7: they can benefit. And listen, the dividend yield on the
- 9:16Speaker 7: S and P five hundreds like one point three percent
- 9:19Speaker 7: right now. So equity income ain't what it used to
- 9:22Speaker 7: be as it relates to finding income and the equity market,
- 9:25Speaker 7: we prefer to do that in bonds. We think there's
- 9:27Speaker 7: more relative value there as we head into the remainder
- 9:30Speaker 7: of the year.
- 9:31Speaker 6: All right, Emily, great to catch up. Thank you so much,
- 9:33Speaker 6: Emily rolland Co, Chief investment strategist for John Hancock Investment Management.
- 9:39Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
- 9:43Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Colock Play and
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- 9:49Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 9:54Speaker 2: Also in studio on Fridays. This is getting It's not.
- 9:57Speaker 2: We're seeing more and more people in on Fridays. I
- 9:59Speaker 2: guess is what I'm trying to say, what you are
- 10:01Speaker 2: seeding this?
- 10:03Speaker 3: It's but I think it's happening.
- 10:04Speaker 8: Okay, okay.
- 10:05Speaker 2: Catherine Dugherty Joint is a financial reporter Bloomberg News joints
- 10:08Speaker 2: us again here in studio and a story that quite
- 10:10Speaker 2: frankly concerns me. Nastak joins Exchange is seeking to offer
- 10:14Speaker 2: around the clock trading.
- 10:17Speaker 3: I don't know, is it tell us about this, Paul, I.
- 10:19Speaker 9: Don't know if you need to be concerned right away.
- 10:22Speaker 9: They made this announcement about their intention to extend their
- 10:26Speaker 9: trading hour, so it.
- 10:27Speaker 6: Would tend to go on vacation at some point exactly.
- 10:30Speaker 6: But let's take a step back to say that these
- 10:33Speaker 6: plans are far out.
- 10:35Speaker 9: So Nasdaq gave some indication that they don't expect this
- 10:39Speaker 9: to actually start happening until the second half of twenty
- 10:42Speaker 9: twenty six, So this is not even a twenty twenty
- 10:45Speaker 9: five story, but specifically for the exchanges, and the reason
- 10:49Speaker 9: being the numbers that we're seeing right now, anything that
- 10:53Speaker 9: is trading actively on any of the public exchanges, that
- 10:57Speaker 9: data is all going to one feed, and feed cannot.
- 11:01Speaker 8: Accommodate overnight trading right now.
- 11:03Speaker 9: So in order for this to actually move forward in
- 11:06Speaker 9: a meaningful way and for Nasdaq, Nicey, Cebo, any of
- 11:09Speaker 9: the exchanges to offer overnight trading, that data feed needs
- 11:13Speaker 9: to be updated and they need to work together to
- 11:15Speaker 9: make sure that it can.
- 11:16Speaker 3: All all right, this is this, all right?
- 11:17Speaker 2: This is the way it works. When I was on
- 11:19Speaker 2: the trading desk, you get in at seven, that's the
- 11:21Speaker 2: bed is a little early, particularly you're out late the
- 11:23Speaker 2: night or four with client.
- 11:25Speaker 3: Trading starts at nine point thirty.
- 11:26Speaker 2: Bell goes off at four o'clock four fifteen year at
- 11:29Speaker 2: Faros across the street.
- 11:30Speaker 3: Sure, having a couple of cocktails. That's the way it's
- 11:32Speaker 3: supposed to be. None of this like stay late in
- 11:35Speaker 3: trade late kind of thing.
- 11:36Speaker 6: Right, So, okay, great point. So why do they want
- 11:38Speaker 6: to even do this?
- 11:39Speaker 9: So they are saying that the demand for US stocks
- 11:44Speaker 9: that they see, particularly abroad, is enough to start offering
- 11:48Speaker 9: this to their clients. But when you talk about the
- 11:52Speaker 9: actual demand and who it is that's actually behind these trades,
- 11:56Speaker 9: a lot of it is coming from retail investors. It's
- 11:59Speaker 9: not the big institutional block trades that are coming through
- 12:02Speaker 9: at four in the morning. Particularly for the instance that
- 12:08Speaker 9: you're describing Paul of showing up, you're at your desk,
- 12:12Speaker 9: those parameters are likely to stay in place, but you
- 12:16Speaker 9: want to have some flexibility. If you're have an office
- 12:19Speaker 9: that's in Asia, I think what's going to happen is
- 12:22Speaker 9: that the staffing is what's going to change.
- 12:24Speaker 8: So you might not have the trader in New.
- 12:27Speaker 9: York that has to stay much past four o'clock like
- 12:29Speaker 9: they normally do, but you might have to hire another
- 12:33Speaker 9: trader in Asia. Maybe you're hiring a team in Europe
- 12:37Speaker 9: to accommodate for the earlier hours in the US.
- 12:40Speaker 8: There's ways to do this.
- 12:41Speaker 9: That doesn't mean those of us in the US and
- 12:45Speaker 9: particularly in New York, are going to have to stay
- 12:49Speaker 9: stay late or wake up earlier.
- 12:52Speaker 8: Wow.
- 12:52Speaker 6: Okay, that's fine, but we can. But the funds they
- 12:56Speaker 6: don't do this trading though, right It's like big funds
- 12:58Speaker 6: like the CTAs of all controlled funds, like they don't trade,
- 13:02Speaker 6: They wouldn't trade overnight right now they can't, But would
- 13:05Speaker 6: they if usually just trade in the cash market.
- 13:08Speaker 8: That is the big question.
- 13:09Speaker 6: So once that would be something, Once Nasdaq and NICY
- 13:12Speaker 6: and all them start to offer this, the question is
- 13:16Speaker 6: who's going to take the advantage per se, who's going
- 13:19Speaker 6: to actually be the ones that are trading overnight and
- 13:22Speaker 6: who is a first because when one person starts and
- 13:24Speaker 6: then they all have to go right right, and really
- 13:27Speaker 6: what is the There's a lot of speculation that.
- 13:32Speaker 9: The retail trades that are being made there's not enough liquidity,
- 13:36Speaker 9: so therefore the experience and the price that they're actually getting,
- 13:40Speaker 9: the execution quality suffers because of that. But if there's
- 13:44Speaker 9: more trading that happens, that could start to improve the quality,
- 13:48Speaker 9: and thus there might be even more trading that starts
- 13:51Speaker 9: to happen because of that would.
- 13:53Speaker 8: Just be like no closing bill at four o'clock. That's
- 13:56Speaker 8: something that the industry needs to decide on.
- 13:58Speaker 9: It could because I think about it, think about it,
- 14:00Speaker 9: if they're spiting opening or closing bell, you need to
- 14:03Speaker 9: actually decide at what point are we into the next
- 14:06Speaker 9: trading day?
- 14:07Speaker 3: Bitcoin doing blown. I don't know. I don't know how bitcoin.
- 14:11Speaker 8: It's a different market structure. But it's funny.
- 14:13Speaker 9: I saw a lot of posts on x today from
- 14:17Speaker 9: the crypto community saying, oh, nice of you to join
- 14:19Speaker 9: us equity exchanges.
- 14:21Speaker 8: We've been doing this and come along. The water is warm.
- 14:26Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 14:26Speaker 2: All right, well, we'll see it's progress. You can't stand
- 14:29Speaker 2: in the way progress, Alex.
- 14:31Speaker 6: You need to shows the guy who doesn't want to
- 14:32Speaker 6: do it anymore in the same way. All right, Thanks
- 14:34Speaker 6: so much, Catherine, really appreciate Katherine already Bloomberg Finance reporter
- 14:37Speaker 6: joining us, the nastak joining an offer to.
- 14:40Speaker 8: Go around the clock.
- 14:43Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 14:46Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarlay and Android Auto
- 14:50Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
- 14:53Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 14:57Speaker 2: Hey, Alex Deal Paul Swiney live here in our Bloomberg
- 14:59Speaker 2: Inner broke the studio, streaming live on YouTube as well.
- 15:02Speaker 3: Ola Lou Aganga joins us. She is the US chief.
- 15:06Speaker 2: Investment officer for Mercer, joining us via zoom. Ola Lou
- 15:10Speaker 2: John and I were just talking about this. Boy, things
- 15:12Speaker 2: have changed in the last couple of months here in
- 15:15Speaker 2: terms of the outlook here. When you see a trillion
- 15:18Speaker 2: dollar market cap loss for a company like Nvidia, boy,
- 15:22Speaker 2: that gets your attention, does it?
- 15:23Speaker 3: How do you feel about these markets?
- 15:26Speaker 10: So the concentration in the equity markets has been a
- 15:28Speaker 10: problem for some time, and problem meaning like it's hard
- 15:31Speaker 10: to be able to distinguish yourself when you have a
- 15:33Speaker 10: benchmark that is moving in that positive direction. We're seeing
- 15:37Speaker 10: a swing in the opposite way, right, but the concentration
- 15:40Speaker 10: is still the same. So when you have a key
- 15:43Speaker 10: handful of stocks that are driving markets in either direction,
- 15:47Speaker 10: you know, it does create challenges now, you know, with
- 15:50Speaker 10: that said, we're in a situation now where we're kind
- 15:53Speaker 10: of back to pre election type of markets. But with
- 15:57Speaker 10: all of the macroeconomic data that's coming up, we're looking
- 16:00Speaker 10: at it. As you all mentioned on your show, economic
- 16:03Speaker 10: data was okay this morning, so no surprises from an
- 16:07Speaker 10: employment standpoint, but it hasn't factored in the cuts yet.
- 16:11Speaker 6: So how do you manage the volatility at the end
- 16:13Speaker 6: of the day. Is it defensive, is it offense?
- 16:15Speaker 5: Is it cash?
- 16:16Speaker 8: Is it treasuries?
- 16:18Speaker 10: So the a lot of flow and it all depends
- 16:21Speaker 10: on the client portfolio objective, So or some of the
- 16:24Speaker 10: longer data clients, the pension clients, they're heavier in fixed
- 16:28Speaker 10: income anyway, they've always, you know, historically been, so this
- 16:31Speaker 10: is a boon for them. We're seeing what four or
- 16:34Speaker 10: five basis points decline and yields this week last week
- 16:38Speaker 10: was a pretty dramatic move, especially in longer dated bonds,
- 16:42Speaker 10: and if you think of the liabilities the pension clients have,
- 16:44Speaker 10: that is something to be to be mindful of. Then
- 16:47Speaker 10: if you were talking about the shorter data aspect, so
- 16:51Speaker 10: the yields on two year money mart like those have
- 16:54Speaker 10: come down, so if you're trying to earn returns that
- 16:58Speaker 10: may not necessarily be you know, the best with regards
- 17:01Speaker 10: to that point. But there is a more defensive environment, yes,
- 17:05Speaker 10: that has been created and some uncertainty around it. The
- 17:09Speaker 10: facts are tariffs, no matter which way you look at them,
- 17:12Speaker 10: are higher input costs, and input costs for corporations a
- 17:16Speaker 10: fact them in one of two ways. It's either lower
- 17:18Speaker 10: margins so you have to either absorb that, so we'll
- 17:21Speaker 10: see that play out in the next few earnings report
- 17:23Speaker 10: maybe or if you pass it on to consumers, then
- 17:26Speaker 10: you run the risk of potentially lower sales. So the
- 17:29Speaker 10: drawback and the drawdowns that we're seeing in the market
- 17:32Speaker 10: is almost you know, by the rumor selby news. So
- 17:37Speaker 10: it's proactively moving in that direction because of those two
- 17:40Speaker 10: potential things that can happen as a result of higher
- 17:42Speaker 10: input costs for corporations.
- 17:43Speaker 11: But we have to see it in the earnings.
- 17:45Speaker 2: Well, since the market started moving higher there in mid
- 17:48Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, a lot of folks have said, boy,
- 17:51Speaker 2: we just haven't seen that ten twelve, fifteen percent pullback
- 17:55Speaker 2: in the market that oftentimes can be healthy for a
- 17:57Speaker 2: longer term bull market. Do you think we're approaching that
- 18:01Speaker 2: now or or is it maybe even something more problematic.
- 18:06Speaker 10: So, yes, we haven't seen a pretty big draw down
- 18:11Speaker 10: in quite some time. But if you were to analyze
- 18:13Speaker 10: post financial crisis, even when we have and if you
- 18:17Speaker 10: of course we all remember the COVID period where were
- 18:19Speaker 10: saw even bigger drawdowns, the rebound on that it was
- 18:23Speaker 10: actually fairly dramatic and fairly swift. So the challenge with that,
- 18:28Speaker 10: you know, really focusing on the draw downs is because
- 18:31Speaker 10: you can't time the markets.
- 18:33Speaker 11: We can have it could happen Monday Tuesday, right, we.
- 18:37Speaker 10: Could very much see the potential of that occurring. But
- 18:41Speaker 10: positive news that could occur could cause it to move
- 18:44Speaker 10: very very swiftly. So for us as you are thinking
- 18:47Speaker 10: of investing and not trading, right because there is day
- 18:49Speaker 10: trading and you have to be able to move with
- 18:51Speaker 10: the volatility cycle if you're day trading or moving that quickly.
- 18:54Speaker 10: But if you are investing, the goal is to be
- 18:57Speaker 10: able to cut through the noise and go through more
- 19:00Speaker 10: sustained themes.
- 19:01Speaker 11: As we just talked about something like.
- 19:03Speaker 10: Corporate earnings, how will that play out if we see
- 19:06Speaker 10: higher input costs? So that is what we're doing a
- 19:08Speaker 10: lot of work around to make sure that we can
- 19:09Speaker 10: look past today, tomorrow and go.
- 19:12Speaker 11: Through a quarter, two quarters, three quarters type of thing.
- 19:15Speaker 8: Where does this leave then corporate credit?
- 19:19Speaker 12: So she laughs at me as well, No, it's it's
- 19:25Speaker 12: you know, the corporate credit just like equities, right, so
- 19:28Speaker 12: two sides of the same coin, for for the corporate
- 19:32Speaker 12: entity is not immune.
- 19:34Speaker 10: So there we've seen a tightening of corporate credit just
- 19:38Speaker 10: you know recently, but now as as we're going through
- 19:41Speaker 10: a period now we're starting to see some widening that's
- 19:44Speaker 10: occurring in certain pockets with rates where they are, and
- 19:49Speaker 10: we're just seeing the volatility. It is difficult with regards
- 19:52Speaker 10: to issuance now. When rates were much higher, it's expensive
- 19:56Speaker 10: for corporations to be able to fund.
- 19:57Speaker 11: So if you're issuing new debts, you're issuing them at
- 19:59Speaker 11: higher and higher levels.
- 20:00Speaker 10: If we see a situation whereby the environment becomes a
- 20:05Speaker 10: lower rate environment from here, then for corporations and corporate
- 20:09Speaker 10: credit it's a tighter environment and that's good to some degree,
- 20:13Speaker 10: but it means you're not necessarily earning the yield and
- 20:15Speaker 10: call it investment grade credit. So there's the potential for
- 20:19Speaker 10: clients moving out their respectrum, but right now, not really
- 20:22Speaker 10: right now, it's it's sort of weight, but lots of
- 20:24Speaker 10: volatility in corporate credit, the similar thing that we're seeing
- 20:27Speaker 10: even in treasuries.
- 20:29Speaker 2: All right, all well, thank you so much for joining us.
- 20:31Speaker 2: Ololu Aganga, US chief investment officer at Mercer.
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