Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / In 50 Years We Have Never Seen Wall Street Do This! + Stock Market News 15 January 2024

Transcript

In 50 Years We Have Never Seen Wall Street Do This! + Stock Market News 15 January 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Peter B Lai, good morning to you.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Happy MLK day.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: If you are in the United States, winston and I are here.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Well, we can just make them out back there behind me.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I thought we'd take today as an opportunity to digest what's happening, digest the news, digest the key indicators, because the markets are closed.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Well, the US markets are closed.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: We can still look at Europe and Asia and futures markets are also open and down a little bit.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I can take more of your questions.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: We probably have a little bit of a smaller community here today.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: You can also join me tomorrow, but only if you want your money to work for you this year.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: If you just want the year to be the same as last year, then don't bother.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: But if you want your money to work harder for you so you don't have to work as hard for money, come and join me tomorrow.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Break down our very simple one stock trading system for you.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I'll give you the whole thing, the whole structure, how we automate it.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I'll run you through an actual live trade, or maybe a couple of them, answer your questions and everything else.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Felix from SIDOC slash webinar tomorrow morning, tuesday, at 10am.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Eastern Town.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you Sound quality funny, is it?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Winston evicted the cats.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: I literally just moved one.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Does this sound funny for anybody else?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: If yes, let me know.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: It seems to be okay on my end.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Nice to see you all on here.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you, all, right.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So let's get cracking then, with some of the data points here and where I am.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: What's going on here?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: No wrong one, that's it.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: That's the one.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: That's the one we wanted.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: So there is an indicator called the conference board LEI leading economic indicator and it's managed to predict all recessions ever since they came up with it All of them ever.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: It's never been wrong, and every single time when we've been at the levels that we are right now, it's given us a recession.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So you're therefore wondering why the heck haven't we got a recession yet, and we can definitely talk about that, but really, what I want to look at is like what does this mean?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We're somewhere down here.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: What does this mean for us as investors?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: How do we make money out of it?
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Understand the indicators and look at a couple of other data points and what's happening in Davos today, and so on.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So the LEI is made up of things like the S&P interest rate spreads, consumer expectations, building permits, manufacturing data, that kind of stuff, new orders, all that kind of good stuff.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: So it's a pretty sensible piece of data and I'm going to get this.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: In fact, I'll make this as big as I possibly can.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: You don't need to see me here for a moment and we are down here and let me draw a line across and show you.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: And then gray in the background are recessions.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: So every single time when we were at these levels, there was a recession, there was a recession, there was another recession.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a recession even at higher levels and here and there, and at higher levels and at much higher levels.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: So it's pretty, it just works, it's just accurate.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So we should be in a recession or we should be heading very much into a recession.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: It's not going to be a word that you're going to hear politicians use a lot because there is an election here and that might have something to do with it.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: But if you also look at the rate of change of this indicator, so how much is it actually coming down by?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Again, just draw a line across from where we are to historic numbers.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: Well, every single time when we were at these levels, we've either been in the middle of a recession, or we've just come out of one, and maybe we've happened already and they just didn't tell us about it.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So possible, entirely possible, but yeah, let me know what you make on that in the comments down below Chaps.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: You also have another one which I quite like, and again, I'll make this as big as humanly possible to cover even myself.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: You can still make out Winston in the background.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: The federal government's tax receipts are a pretty good economic indicator because, well, when the economy does well, people make a lot of money, so they have to pay more tax, more people are employed and so on.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: And again, draw a line across from where we are right now, because tax receipts are plummeting, and see if we ever been at this level, this low, and not seeing the gray in the background, where we had a recession since like 1950, 2000, 2008.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Never, right, every single time we were in a recession.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So what's so special about us right now, in 2024, you might ask.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Well, you can also look at the labor market and say same story, and I mean, if you follow me, you've heard me whinge and moan about the labor market more than anything else, because the labor market data is a total scam.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: But again, with where we are right now.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: At these levels, typically we drop lower and we head into a recession.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Here and there, and here and there, and here and again, and again, and again and again, you get the idea right.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: It's pretty much the same story that you just get a recession when employment grows this slowly and allegedly it is still growing.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: So what's it all about, really?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Well, it's all about rate cuts.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So if we do get a recession, we will get more rate cuts.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Maybe we even get the 1.7% of the market in prices in right now, which I think is a little on the optimistic side, or maybe pessimistic side, it depends on how you look at that.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: And what you got here is earnings per share, which is profits.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So I wonder the red one?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Microsoft said no, you will have blue.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Could we have red?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: That's earnings per share forward and earnings per share.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And in black, you've got the Fed Again.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Could we change the campaign color?
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: You've got rates, basically interest rates, fed interest rates.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: So when the Fed interest rates come down, typically earnings also come down.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: And now what's the correlation there?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Why does that happen?
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Well, typically rates come down because you're heading into a recession.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: But then there is the soft landing miracle, a bit like iPhones falling out of Boeing airplanes they land and not a scratch.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: It's a thing, apparently.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: So maybe they have a little parachute to build in or something.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Earnings go down in a recession, especially for consumer stocks, especially for Dow Jones stocks, and then you get the backpedaling from the Fed.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: This is just out today Fed Bostick, who is a bit of a hawk, is warning that inflation is likely to slow, the progress on inflation is likely to slow, and believes rates need to stay on hold until at least the summer.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: But June no rate cut in March.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: That would be a kick in the teeth.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: And Gouldsby that's a cool name, isn't?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It Said that investors got ahead on Fed rate cut bets and that PPI data is the most noisy and least productive, while he added not to take too much heart from it and that the Fed targets PCE, which continues to show good progress on getting inflation down.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: But he's still saying we're kind of expecting too much.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Same story with Hildebrand, who is one of those lovely people running the world.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: He's BlackRock.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Is he BlackRock?
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, blackrock vice president or vice chair or something at BlackRock.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: You got the European central bank saying rate cuts aren't guaranteed this year.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: So there's this backpedaling from the central bankers, because they're a little bit afraid that they let the cat out of the back.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, there is doubles generally, which apparently has the global elite indulging in cocaine, caviar, champagne and bunga bunga parties.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Anybody in doubles, you want to meet up?
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: That doesn't sound too bad, does it?
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, that's what's going on there.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: That's probably why the BlackRock chap is there.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: That sounds good.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Thanks, guys, and yeah, do share your thoughts.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Please Do also come and join me tomorrow, on Tuesday, when it's no longer a holiday.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: If you are in the US at 10am Eastern, and just learn how to make your money work for you, seriously, the year will be so much easier.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Do you know how much money we made last year?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Last week?
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I had a screenshot of this just somewhere.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Where did it go?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Do you want to see it?
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Here we go $3,492 last week.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: How many trades did I do?
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Hang on, I did one.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I closed it.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: Here's another one.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Two, that's a close.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Three, four, five.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I did five trades.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: So I spent less than an hour doing that One hour.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: I'm going to whisper this.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: People in the back might hear it.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Felix Rensselogs live webinar.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a seat Now.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Let me see if you got any questions Any questions at all.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, we're going to have a quick glance at here.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: It is futures, and futures are down a little bit.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Futures are trading.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: These traders are hardworking people.