Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | October 12, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | October 12, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: System's going clear the lift?
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: What is going on? Everybody?
• 0:37
  Speaker 4: Happy Thursday night, many of you watching Friday Saturday. Hope
• 0:42
  Speaker 4: you guys ready for a big weekend. It's definitely a
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: big weekend of sports. All these weekends are this time
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: of fall. NHL's back to man, NHL are here, but
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: of course NFL going on. I'm a mad going on, golf,
• 0:54
  Speaker 4: going on, NASCAR going on, Legal legends going on. I
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: saw sheet ship legal legends to sheets. Appreciate everyone hanging out.
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: As always, all we ask like button subscribe, button helps
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: us out. A ton of thirteen fights this week at
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: the Apex. Never likes seeing the Apex, but that's what
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: happens after a pay per view usually thirteen fights. Sign
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: me up any day, give me a thirteen fight awful
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: fight night card over the best ten fights ever for
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: DFS any day because thirteen fights, more combinations, usually more
• 1:26
  Speaker 4: spread out ownership.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: Big Marley bringing in, how you doing on this fine Thursday?
• 1:31
  Speaker 5: Good got football on.
• 1:33
  Speaker 6: Got a thirteen fight card for Saturday, one hundred kup top,
• 1:37
  Speaker 6: so looking forward to it.
• 1:38
  Speaker 5: Hopefully you could talk me into a side or two
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: on the card.
• 1:42
  Speaker 6: But aside from that, I think there's a couple fights
• 1:44
  Speaker 6: I know I want to target, probably one fight I
• 1:46
  Speaker 6: know I want to avoid, but then there's a couple
• 1:49
  Speaker 6: others that are just just close fights that I don't
• 1:51
  Speaker 6: know what I'm gonna do with you.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: I like hearing that I have a pretty good grasp.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: I feel like on this card as well, fights I
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: want to target fights I don't owns. Five of the
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: thirteen this week expected to finish not really good. Last
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: week was three to nine, so you're gonna have to
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: play some fights that are expected to go the distance.
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: But one short notice replacement, Sean Sheriff steps in this
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: week for Chris Barnett taking on Junior Tafa Fun main events,
• 2:19
  Speaker 4: Little Dudes, Tyra roy Bell. Probably winner gets the title
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: shots and the other broad sid overview.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: I think you can leave some money.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: We'll go fight by fight like always, but nothing really
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: crazy stands out for me.
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah. Same.
• 2:32
  Speaker 6: I think main event will be heavy, it'll suck up
• 2:34
  Speaker 6: a lot of ownership, and then after that fairly spread out.
• 2:38
  Speaker 6: I think the bottom part will be loan. People will
• 2:40
  Speaker 6: try and get up to the stars up top, but
• 2:43
  Speaker 6: everyone in the middle I see being fairly around the twenty.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it.
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: Let's go bottom the top as always again, appreciate every
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: single one hanging out with us. This is the stone
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: for our MMA. Stone again, we have the stone for
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: all sports. NHL NBA will have the Stone College football
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: MMA just a one stop shop. As you see when
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: this is filled in Friday. You'll have ownership here. You'll
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: projections here. They're actual what they weigh in at, and
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: then we take it. If I'm not playing them at
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: twenty and below, they'll be red yellow for underweight, green overweight,
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: bluess Core also projections ownership, poor report, slave plan where
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: I break down all the fights, fight rankings. Big Marley
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: breaks down all his tier rankings, rank them in each tier.
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: So that's the MMA content we have again. NFL going on, PGA, MLB,
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: no better time to join.
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: Right before I'm gonna toss this up. We do have
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: a promo code going.
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: Not sure how long it will be up, so I
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: recommend taking advantage NHL fifteen.
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: This is for any membership plan.
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: It's not just for NHL, but NHL with it coming back,
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: shout out NHL and aids the team is absolutely crushing
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: right now.
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: NBA will be on at the end of the month.
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: Still plenty of NFL action, MMA never stops, PGA Showdown
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: as well. If you want to try just in the
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: week less than fifteen dollars, use this promo code. You
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: don't get discord access, but you get everything else on
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: the site. If you want to add at Shiptomizer, it's
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: less than ten dollars. There no better deal in the industry.
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: We're on fire over he at Shipping Nation. So fun
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: seeing the community we built like little Neck helping people
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: out in chat. So many awesome, awesome members Rio almost
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: NBA time. Good to see a g Kitfer in here,
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: Matt in here as well. Fun Slate ind let's talk
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: this late Big Marley bottom of the top. As always,
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go based on how I have it in
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: the stone. Some of these will be in a little
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: different order, but it's pretty close to what the final
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: order will be. Started off on the first fight of
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: the night, Clayton Carpenter taking on Lucas Hashka minus two
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: hundred is Carpenter Hashka plus one seventy.
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: I think it's Ashka, not Roachka. I could be wrong,
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: you guys know what I'm talking about.
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: This man right here minus two hundred Carpenter plus one
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: seventy Hashka minus one twenty five for this fight to
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: finish both fighters plus two to twenty five inside the distance.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: So right away, what stands out to be me Big
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: Barley twenty four years old, seventeen and one, twenty eight
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: years old, seven and oh you don't see that every
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: single day. Carpenter's been off for one and a half years,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: which I'm gonna throw it to you on that note,
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: I don't love the layoff because I'm expecting it to
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: be injuries because he was very highly touted after his
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: Contender series. Winever Chaires gets a first round submission in
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: his debut that we just don't see him for.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: One and a half years, Like, I mean, he's twenty
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: eight years old.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: It doesn't feel like he's like I'm just grinding one
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: and a half years waiting to make a return. Feels
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: like he's had been banged up a bit. I know
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: he dropped out of one fight as well. So any
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: thoughts on the Carpenter layoff and then what are you
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: doing in this fight?
• 5:49
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I didn't even realize that there was a layoffer.
• 5:51
  Speaker 6: I feel like I remembered his name being in and
• 5:54
  Speaker 6: then when I go to watch the videos, I don't
• 5:56
  Speaker 6: even click on the dates, so just didn't even hit
• 5:59
  Speaker 6: my mind that there was a layoff. I guess that
• 6:01
  Speaker 6: is concerning, But I also need to watch more of
• 6:04
  Speaker 6: this Roca or whatever his name is kid. I only
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: saw his Contender Series fight so far. I was just
• 6:12
  Speaker 6: on vacation, I only had my laptop, I forgot my charger,
• 6:15
  Speaker 6: and this is the last fight I got to, so
• 6:17
  Speaker 6: it cut me off, but I didn't I wasn't impressed
• 6:22
  Speaker 6: in that fight anyway, So I just feel like Carpenter
• 6:25
  Speaker 6: could have an edge everywhere.
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: Maybe he's a better striker.
• 6:28
  Speaker 6: I feel like he's a better wrestler, probably more dangerous
• 6:32
  Speaker 6: on the ground as well. So Carpenter is gonna be
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: my preferred play here. If that changes, I'll put it
• 6:37
  Speaker 6: in my notes over on the fight rankings. But I
• 6:40
  Speaker 6: need to see a couple more fights from this other
• 6:42
  Speaker 6: kid to really have any strong lean on this one.
• 6:45
  Speaker 6: But as of now, I'm leaning kind of a Carpenter
• 6:48
  Speaker 6: maybe field or possible leverage play, and then I'm thinking
• 6:53
  Speaker 6: underweight to Roca. But I'm fine getting some exposure because
• 6:57
  Speaker 6: I just don't think Carpenter's are proven enough stud where
• 6:59
  Speaker 6: we can just say that he's gonna dominate this guy anywhere.
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: So I think the kids alive. I just haven't seen
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: enough yet.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I'm in agreement with you, really, So it
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: some interesting line movement in this one. Carpenter opened minus
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: three fifty immediately Roka took money was bought to a
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: coin flip. Then it got to like Carpenter on minus
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: one forty, which sat for a while, and then the
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: past week he's taken about sixty cents, so a lot
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: of line movement on the Carpenter side. Carpenter has the
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: takedown upside if someone gets it in this fight. Everag's
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: over two per fifteen in his short Dana White Contender
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: Series UFC sample, and he's solid on the feet too,
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: like Roca wants it on the feet. He's powerful, but
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: I think Carpenter's more technical with them with the restling
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: upside he can mix in. Plus two twenty five isn't bad,
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: and he doesn't break the bank at eighty eight hundred either,
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: So I'm definitely playing Carpenter. I'm gonna play Roka too though,
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: like plus two to twenty five inside the distance very
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: good for the price. Of seventy four hundred seventeen is
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: one seventeen to one is a twenty four year old
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: ten KOs looks like he has some powers so well,
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: I think Carpenter is probably the minute winner. Only takes
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: one shot as we know in this sport, looks like
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: Roca does have that power upside with that inside the
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: distance prop. So starting it off with the fight, I
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: am definitely going to be targeting.
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: Let's keep it going to definitely another fight. I'll be targeting.
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: Cody hadn't taken on Dan are what a minus one
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: eighty has had in plus one fifty five is our
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: geta plus one ten for this fight to finish?
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: It was minus one oh five.
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: As you see, I write these in like Tuesday or Wednesday,
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: and I'm gonna change it Friday morning. All these odds
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: because I do like to say the current odds and
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: then compare them to what it was on Wednesday or something.
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: So when I say plus one ten inside the distance,
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: that's current and that shows the line moved fifteen cents
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: in the direction expected to go. The distance had in
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: plus one seventy five inside the distance, our geta plus
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: four fifty. So there's two fights mainly that I was
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: really surprised with the line, the main events and this fight.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: They're giving a lot of respect to Hadden. Now when
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: I camp the fight a lot different than it is.
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: To be honest, I look at it the other way
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: and like the market these books takes so much money.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: Like if I have just say I had this fight
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: capped at.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Minus one ten, I thought it was gonna be like
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: minus one thirty plus one ten. I tell I look
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: at that myself as Wow, they know something I don't know.
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: I am off somewhere.
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: I usually tend to lean in to the line movement
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: or the other side of my thoughts because I'm wrong plenty.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: At the end of the day, where money goes, I
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: try and follow the money, because I mean that's what
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: runs the world. People put their harder money on people
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: they believe. In minus one ten this fight opened at.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: Now hadn't got all the way down to minus one
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: eighty five. Range dropped a little bit, but it's been
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: hovering over this minus one eighty the whole time. Dan
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: Argrutt is a really tough UFC debut, as we can
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: see right here. Great dfs play for sure, no doubt
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: about that. This is a very small sample one fight,
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: so you can ignore these numbers multiple For our Geta
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: just gonna wrestle Russell wrestle sixty six. He scored in
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: a loss that didn't even get to the third round
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: mass fight. So I know you're probably gonna play our Getta,
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: probably gonna play some Hadden.
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: But do you think this line's a little weird at
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: first glance? What are you thinking?
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: I mean I thought Hadn't looked like a really good boxer.
• 10:18
  Speaker 6: He should have a striking edge in this one. But
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: Arguetta's not gonna go out there and look to have
• 10:23
  Speaker 6: a striking match with this guy. He's gonna be looking
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: to wrestle and hold top control. So I don't I
• 10:28
  Speaker 6: don't know that this Hadden kid can deal with that
• 10:30
  Speaker 6: or not. So yeah, I think it's a little too wide.
• 10:32
  Speaker 6: If I'm making a bet, it's gonna be on Argueta.
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: Argret is my preferred DraftKings play as well, because I
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: just don't think Hadden's gonna want to go out there
• 10:39
  Speaker 6: and try and wrestle Argueta. If Hadden wins, it's gonna
• 10:43
  Speaker 6: be a boxing match, and if he doesn't knock him out,
• 10:46
  Speaker 6: I don't even know that he's gonna hit ten X
• 10:48
  Speaker 6: in a decision, so I'm looking elsewhere when I'm paying
• 10:51
  Speaker 6: around that, you know, upper eight K range. I'm probably
• 10:54
  Speaker 6: not gonna get a lot of hat in this week.
• 10:56
  Speaker 6: But Arguetta, I do like if he wins the fight,
• 10:59
  Speaker 6: it should come with at least two rounds of wrestling
• 11:02
  Speaker 6: in top control. And I think he's live for a
• 11:05
  Speaker 6: submission as well. So our gwena is going to be
• 11:07
  Speaker 6: an underdog I'm targeting. I will be overweight to him,
• 11:10
  Speaker 6: and I'm picking him to get the win.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he's definitely one of my favorite dogs in the card.
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: I have a little more interest in Hadden just in
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: case he can stuff the takedowns.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: Like he looks like a good prospect. I was impressed
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: only twenty.
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: Six years old, seven and one his only loss was
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: to Steve Ursag he can stuff takedowns. I think he
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: pieces up our gut on the feet inside. The distance
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: prop is pretty solid. I want to say it moved
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: now plus one seventy five went down to plus one
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: sixty back up to one seventy five. We have him,
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: I'll say ownership again. It'll be posted tomorrow eighteen percent
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: we have him, I will definitely be playing some Hatten
• 11:45
  Speaker 4: at eighteen percent, but I will say ownership is really
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: should be spread out on this card. It's a very
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: good DFS card assuming we keep all thirteen fights. Let's
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: get to the next fight that's the most likely to
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: finish on the card, Junior Tough taken on short notice
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: replacment replacement Shawn Sheriff.
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: Minus three sixty five is TAPA. Plus two to ninety
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: is Sheriff.
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: We do not have any The only prop I'm seeing
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: on fight odds right now is under one and a half.
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: Minus three h five is under one and a half.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: So we're gonna get a big boy inside the distance
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: prop right here. It'll be in the tier of its own.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: The next heize inside the distance prop, as you can
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: see minus two twenty, this will be something like minus
• 12:26
  Speaker 4: seven hundred, so it stands out of the tier of
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: its own. We don't have Shrif's price yet unless it
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: came out like the past two hours. But I'm expecting
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: something like sixty nine hundred where Chris Barnett was, So
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: let's assume that probably minus six hundred.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: Right here, I get last thing.
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: This is the fight open minus three hundred Tafa, get
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: all the way down to minus two ten Tafa and
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: now back minus three sixty five, so open minus three hundred.
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: Sheriff took some money. Tafa's ben slammed. Ever since, how
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: do you see this fight going?
• 12:58
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I was only able to see two fights from
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: this shure off guy. I didn't even realize that fight
• 13:05
  Speaker 6: was canceled. I saw today when I was going to
• 13:07
  Speaker 6: get everything done, I was like, what the hell?
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: What happened to the big boy?
• 13:12
  Speaker 6: But I had to look into this guy, and one
• 13:14
  Speaker 6: of the fights I saw, he knocked him out in
• 13:16
  Speaker 6: like seven seconds, so I didn't learn a lot there.
• 13:19
  Speaker 6: And then the other one he ended up getting a
• 13:21
  Speaker 6: knockout against some scrub, but I didn't look at an
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: impress of it all. I feel like he's gonna go
• 13:25
  Speaker 6: out here. He's gonna try and knock out Tafa early.
• 13:28
  Speaker 6: If he doesn't, I'd imagine he's gonna gass out. He's
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: only got four fights, he's never been passed round one.
• 13:34
  Speaker 6: He only had a week to prepare for this fight.
• 13:36
  Speaker 6: I think he's gonna have like four minutes of maybe
• 13:40
  Speaker 6: knockout hopes, and if he doesn't get it, I just
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: don't think he has a top game, which is what
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: you want if you're facing Tafa. Tafa doesn't know what
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: to do if he's taken down. I just don't think
• 13:51
  Speaker 6: that this Sharoff guy has that. So give me Tafa
• 13:54
  Speaker 6: to be the better striker, the more dangerous striker, and
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: the one that can go longer than what I'm thinking
• 13:59
  Speaker 6: this guy is gonna do. So Tafa by knockout and
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: I'll be overweight to him. I do want some of
• 14:05
  Speaker 6: the Sharoff guys for the unknowns, but at this point
• 14:08
  Speaker 6: it's just gonna be more.
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: Of a hedge because I'll have a lot of Tafa.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a fight. I mean, I'm gonna be playing
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: some or share of Sharoff whatever it is. Because plus
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: two nineties it's not great, but we see underdogs like
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: that win in MMA all the time. Obviously not all
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: the time, but this is a sport where seeing a
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: plus two ninety winners and crazy and with these odds
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: it probably like I'm curious when the props come out
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: what his first round prop is compared to his money line,
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: because I do feel like a lot of it probably
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: in round one is his win equity but Junior Tafa
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: just hasn't been good in the UFC, either former kickbox
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: or the sheriff guy doesn't look like really has much
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: takedown upside. But it's only four fights, all of them
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: that first round knockouts, so a lot of volatility in
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: this fight. Heavily favored to finish in round or under
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: one and a half, probably gets done.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: In round one, and the winners score as well. So
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: definitely a fight you want.
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: As you can see, we have our big Marley All
• 15:04
  Speaker 4: he has multiple five stars on this card.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: I like it.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: This is one of those fights though, keep it rolling.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: Three star fight right here.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: Another big favorite them, but Grimbo taking on Nico Price.
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: Grimbo minus four to ten now Nico Price plus three
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: ten minus one fifty five for this fight to finish,
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: Grimbo plus one hundred inside the distance Nico Price plus
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: four fifty. So if I'm just looking at the stone
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: and I read this, I see a three star, which
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: means you're indifferent with the fight. Then I see Grimbo
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: five stars at Nico price one, So I'm guessing you
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: are fading.
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: Nico Price. You're good with whatever really.
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: For Grimbo, but there's a lot of other upper tier
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: fighters you like as well, So is that a correct
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: assessment on your breakdown?
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't know if i'll full fade Price. I
• 15:50
  Speaker 6: think he's somewhat live to win. Maybe if it's just
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: a three round striking match. I think Price can do
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: well winning minutes in that scenario. But I do think
• 16:00
  Speaker 6: Rimbo's probably more dangerous on the feet. At this point,
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: I think he's going to be the better wrestler and
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: grappler as well. So yeah, I will be low on Price,
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: and then Grimbo is the one I would have interest in.
• 16:09
  Speaker 6: And I'd say it's closer to a four star than
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: a two star because I do want Grimbo exposure.
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: He is three UFC wins.
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: He averages almost one hundred and eighteen DraftKings points in
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: those wins. If you're tellingim he's gonna ge around one
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: hundred and eighteen here, I mean, give me all the
• 16:23
  Speaker 6: thin but I can afford. But I just think it's
• 16:26
  Speaker 6: a somewhat tougher matchup. I don't think he could just
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: go out there and have his way. But if he
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: does and he wins, I think he'll probably score well,
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: so I'll get Grimbo exposure maybe around field way, I
• 16:37
  Speaker 6: could go either or I just know I like Tafa
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: a little bit more than Grimbo probably, and then I
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: might like Dawson more than them two.
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: So I don't know.
• 16:47
  Speaker 6: If I can go over weight to all three, I
• 16:48
  Speaker 6: would love that, but we'll see what I can do,
• 16:50
  Speaker 6: and unfine taking one out for the other in any
• 16:53
  Speaker 6: combination too.
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: How much do you think Grimbo wrestles of this one,
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: because obviously, as you see on this stone, he's wrestled
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: a lot four point zero four takedowns price not great
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: takedown defense, but most of the price losses are by
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: knockout accumulated a lot of damage bad chin. And you
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: look at the props Grimbo plus two to twenty five
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: by KO, which opened plus two seventy five by sub
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: plus five point fifty, So interesting right there. How do
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: you see Grimbo's game plan? Do you think he strikes?
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: Do you think he does wrestle pretty early and often?
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: Any thoughts on it?
• 17:28
  Speaker 6: I'd say he mixes it up, but probably starts out striking,
• 17:31
  Speaker 6: see how that goes for him, and then maybe fall
• 17:33
  Speaker 6: back on the wrestling if he needs to. I haven't
• 17:35
  Speaker 6: seen any you know, prop odds, I haven't even looked,
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: but I would imagine like two and a half takedowns
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: for Grimbo would be what I've said of that.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's see if I can see it real quick.
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: And Underdog, what's up?
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: Ben?
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: I do like to look at these a little bit,
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: but I do wonder really how accurate and.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: Stuff like there.
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: Do you know any books that take props are just
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: like one v one you can better like Underdog, you
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: have to parley him. So like, while I think it's
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: better than nothing, they're also not confident enough to take
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: like an even money your minus one ten.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: You know what I'm saying. Somma is really tough to cat.
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: I mean, maybe DraftKings. I think I've seen a couple
• 18:11
  Speaker 6: of props on there. I don't know if that's just
• 18:13
  Speaker 6: for like it.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Is two and a half takedowns. By the way, though
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: he did get it.
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: And I don't even know which side i'd prefer on that.
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: I mean, but if they were giving you a bet
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: and they had plus money either way, that I.
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: Would take the place you take the plus. Yeah, that
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: makes sense. I would probably take over if I had to.
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: But that's kind of what we're talking, Like, he has
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: a lot of upside and with our ownership. I'm not
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: gonna say this one. We have him at pretty highly owned,
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: but I do think Tafa and probably Dawson or higher
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: on even though their priced higher, and Tire definitely will
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: be higher on for a little cheaper. So it is
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: the teamer Of and then teamro Of will be the
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: lowest own in the nine k range, and then probably Grimbo.
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: But Grenbo's gonna get ownership, There's no doubt about. He
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: was like minus three hundred last week. Now he's minus
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: four ten, keeps taking money. Wun't Beece surprised if he
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: went off minus four fifty range. We'll keep it rolling again.
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: Appreciate everyone hanging out. Hope your day's going well. All
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: we ask for your life. Bun goes a long way,
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: helps us out a ton. NFL shows on this channel,
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: NHL Quick, Its, NASCAR QUICKTS, PGA shows, next thing you know,
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: NBA will be coming back as well.
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: We'll have shows for you there as well.
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: Next fight on the car to Pat or why did
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: I say the underdog first? Jonathan Piers, Pat Sabatini minus
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: one eighty four is Piers plus one fifty nine is
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: Sabatini plus one ten for this fight to finish again
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: as you see.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: Or hold on where is it?
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: It was plus one thirty now it's plus one ten,
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: so good amount of the line movement a couple of
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: days toward the under Jonathan Piers plus two ten inside
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: the distance Sabatini plus three point fifty. I'm gonna throw
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: it to you on this MI minus one fifty, it
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: said for Pierce on Wednesday. Now we have minus one
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: eighty four plus one thirty on Wednesday now plus one
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: ten eighty two hundred ak. This is the closest line
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: fight on the card minus one eighty four. That usually
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: is not what a money line is for an eighty
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: two hundred dollars fighter, So I expect Piers to be
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: a good bit higher owned than Sabatini. And last thing
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: to note on this it is favored to go the distance,
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: not crazy. Five point twenty four takedowns for Piers per
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: fifteen Sabatini three point seven to three. Battle of Wrestlers
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: slash grapplers usually fun for dfs on DraftKings, not as
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: much on FanDuel.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: What do you like?
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I like this fight, but I do like the
• 20:42
  Speaker 5: Pier side.
• 20:43
  Speaker 6: When I looked into it, he was like minus one
• 20:46
  Speaker 6: thirty to Sabatin, he's plus one ten and I was like, yeah,
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: Piers might have to be a play at that, And
• 20:51
  Speaker 6: then I looked again today's minus one eighty five.
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: I was like, God, damn it.
• 20:54
  Speaker 6: Man, should should have just done it earlier. But I
• 20:59
  Speaker 6: just think Piers is just better everywhere. Maybe not everywhere.
• 21:02
  Speaker 6: I think Sabatini could be the better grappler, more dangerous
• 21:05
  Speaker 6: on the ground, But if Sabatin he's not getting takedowns
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: and holding top control or getting a submission, I think
• 21:11
  Speaker 6: Pierce is just gonna outwork him. I think Pierce will
• 21:13
  Speaker 6: end up being the better wrestler over the course.
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: Of fifteen minutes.
• 21:17
  Speaker 6: And if this ends up being a striking match because
• 21:21
  Speaker 6: the wrestling cancels each other out, then I think Pierce
• 21:24
  Speaker 6: probably wins all three rounds there. So give me Pierce.
• 21:27
  Speaker 6: I love his work rate. He usually scores well when
• 21:29
  Speaker 6: he wins. But I think either way we're probably gonna
• 21:32
  Speaker 6: get a decent score in this one. It's priced right
• 21:34
  Speaker 6: in the mid range, so I like both sides of
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: the fight. Maybe I can get around field weight on Sabatini. Now,
• 21:41
  Speaker 6: like when it was close to an even even line.
• 21:46
  Speaker 6: If he was gonna get more ownership, then I would
• 21:48
  Speaker 6: be underweight. But if he's gonna be closer to like
• 21:49
  Speaker 6: fifteen percent, now I'm somewhat interested in that because he
• 21:53
  Speaker 6: could put up one hundred points here and then on
• 21:55
  Speaker 6: the pier side. I mean I was gonna be overweight
• 21:58
  Speaker 6: at first. Now he's gonna be one of the more
• 22:01
  Speaker 6: chalky guys on the card, I would think, so.
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: Maybe I like him just as much. I might be
• 22:07
  Speaker 5: around field weight.
• 22:08
  Speaker 6: I don't know what I'm gonna do with the peer
• 22:09
  Speaker 6: side because it is somewhat tough, a tough matchup, and
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: if he's not gonna go for a lot of takedowns,
• 22:14
  Speaker 6: I don't trust him to score enough on the feet.
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: So not gonna force him into lineups, especially with the
• 22:18
  Speaker 6: new ownership. But I do like Pierson this one.
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: You don't, do you think he will shoot for a
• 22:22
  Speaker 4: lot of takedowns early and often and I'll be a
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: worried about the grappling or do you think I mean
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: he he should clearly be the better striker.
• 22:29
  Speaker 6: So yeah, if I mean similar to Timbo, I'd said
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: it two and a half again, yeah.
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: And I will say again, we don't have our ownership
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: post it, yet I'm looking at it. I do even
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: think our GAP's a little too close, Like I think
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: it could be a little wider, like ford A Peers
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: four down from savatin I just minus one eighty five
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: with these two price that similarly for me, it's easy.
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: I like both for sure, and I think the ownership
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: will probably be two wide, where Sabatini's the better play.
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: But I like Sabatine need more and chalk your lineups
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: and Pierce more when I'm leaving a lot of money
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: or I'm going sheriff, or I'm I'm already low owned elsewhere.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: So that's how I look at it. Pierce and Chocolate
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: lineup Sabatinia not. You can still play Pierce and leave
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: plenty of salary though, like drop Cheetie down to Pierce
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: and leave four hundred, Carpenter down to Pierce, leave six hundred.
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: Stuff like that very viable on this card.
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: But yeah, even though this fight is supposed to go
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: the distance, money's came in on the under a little bit,
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: and it's two wrestler. Pierce is more of a wrestler
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: solid grappler too. I look at Sabatini also a wrestler
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: as the better grappler of the bunch, so very interesting
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: to see how this fight goes. I hope it plays
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: out on the mats and we have a lot of
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: fun scrambles would score well in DFS.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Let's keep it moving.
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: Next fight on the card another big favorite, Ramazan TOMORROWV
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: taking on Carlo or CJ. Vergara minus three forty two
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: is teamer of plus two eighty two is Vergara plus
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: one thirty for this fight to finish teamer of plus
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: one ninety five inside the distance for Gara plus four
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: seventy five. One thing to note this fight was minus
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: one oh five to finish at open now plus one
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: thirty teamra of plus one sixty inside the distance now
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: plus one ninety five. Some money came in on the
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: over and then money line wise, teamer of opened minus
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: two fifty five two fifteen.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: Was pretty steady there for a.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: Little while, and in the past couple of days Timre
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: has taken some money against Forgara, so it wouldn't be
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: again surprised to see this line go off for a
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: minus four hundred df wes wise, what are you doing
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: in this one big mileth.
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: You think I'm gonna follow the line movement in this
• 24:40
  Speaker 6: one and go Timorrov or maybe pass. I think for
• 24:44
  Speaker 6: Gara could win a close back and forth fight. I
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: just don't think he has any real ceiling in his game,
• 24:50
  Speaker 6: and if he does win, it's probably flirting with around
• 24:54
  Speaker 6: ten x.
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: Where this Timurav guy, I.
• 24:56
  Speaker 6: Thought he was mostly a striker from what I saw,
• 24:59
  Speaker 6: which I don't love for DFS because I think he's
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: almost gonna need a knockout at that price. He didn't
• 25:04
  Speaker 6: strike me as someone who's gonna go out there and
• 25:06
  Speaker 6: throw a ton of volume. It's just that he throws heat.
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: And if he can knock out Viergara, then sure he
• 25:13
  Speaker 6: can put up a good score. But if he's gonna
• 25:15
  Speaker 6: win a decision, give me all the other people in
• 25:17
  Speaker 6: that nine K range instead. So I put it mostly
• 25:21
  Speaker 6: on the on the three star mark, but I think
• 25:23
  Speaker 6: this one's one where I'm closer to a two star
• 25:26
  Speaker 6: than a four star. But I will say that Tomorrow
• 25:29
  Speaker 6: is my preferred play just for his ceiling.
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: Man, I was looking at sorry about that? Is is
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: Jordan Mason hurt? Yeah?
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: It looked like he might have like broke his collar
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: bone or.
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: Something rolling there's a broken collar bone in MBMA, that
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: dude might be back out there. Shoutout, Nata way Kano
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: not no broken collar bone. Whatever he had going on
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: with his shoulder. Man, these dudes are absolute warriors we
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: watch every single week. So hopefully Jordan Mason's okay. I
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: do not like to see that, but keep it rolling
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: right back to MMA the next fight on the car.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: Oh my quick thoughts. I don't love this card much
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: like that three star I agree with. I don't like CJ. Rigark.
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: Money keeps moving against him. If he wins seventy five.
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of live dogs in this card,
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: thirteen fights. I expect some to come through, So I'm
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: gonna take a shot no CJ and twenty and below.
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: Even if he wins, I think he can be underdogs,
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: can score higher. Obviously, if I knew he'd win, i'd
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: want him teamer of. On the other side, he will
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: be the lowest own in the nine k's, but I
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: do prefer THEMBA. I do prefer Tyra, I prefer Dawson,
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: I prefer Junior Tafa. So at the end of the day,
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna be underweight teamer of because you can't play everyone,
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: so primary striker over has been taking money. I will
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: follow the money there.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Keep a rolling.
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: Next fights on the card we have Cheating and Jokwani
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: taking on Jared good In. Minus one seventy is GD
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: plus one forty five is good in minus two hundred
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: for this fight to finish, one of the four expected
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: to plus one forty inside the distance is ch D
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: plus two ten is good in round one props in
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: this one. GD plus three fifty good and plus six hundred.
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: I like this fight, no doubt about that. Looks like
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: you do as well as a four star. We see
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: CHD three inch reach and height advantage. We do see
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: good In four GD two. So my guess is you
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: like Gooden in this fight to win. Is that correct?
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah? I kind of do.
• 27:30
  Speaker 6: I do think round one probably favors in Jakwani. He's
• 27:34
  Speaker 6: maybe the more technical and dangerous striker in that first round,
• 27:40
  Speaker 6: but he's not a volume guy. So if it makes
• 27:42
  Speaker 6: it out of that first round, I feel like good
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: In can win on volume.
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: Good In's got power as well.
• 27:47
  Speaker 6: I think he could knock out in Jikwani in round
• 27:49
  Speaker 6: two or round three. I also favor good In to
• 27:52
  Speaker 6: be the better wrestler in this one. He just tapped
• 27:55
  Speaker 6: out Urmin, which I was shocked to see. So if
• 27:57
  Speaker 6: you can tap out Urman, you can tap.
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: Out in Jikwan.
• 28:00
  Speaker 6: And I think Gooden has more ways to win after
• 28:04
  Speaker 6: round one, even if it is a close line. I
• 28:06
  Speaker 6: just think that the odds will start shifting to good
• 28:08
  Speaker 6: In's favor, So I like him to win rounds two,
• 28:10
  Speaker 6: in rounds three if he can't finish, find a finish
• 28:13
  Speaker 6: along the way. I would guess that he can score
• 28:15
  Speaker 6: around ten x if he gets the job done by decision.
• 28:19
  Speaker 6: But we could rack up some takedowns in this fight
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: if Goodon wants to. Usually my issue with him is
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: being taken him down himself. But I think he's got
• 28:26
  Speaker 6: the offensive wrestling edge in this one, So give me
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: good In by any method really, So I'm.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: Gonna just jump right away to the Stacks fight here.
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: I'll say the odds really quick because I tie these
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: in together. Minus one sixty three Abdul Rock Abdul Razzaq
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: Elison plus one forty three as Josh Friend minus two
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: twenty is this fight to finish minus one thirty Alison
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: plus two fifty Friend so pretty much the same we
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: have right here. The reason I want to group these
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: together again, this will be like minus seven hundred. After
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: that we have minus one seventy minus two twenty minus
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: two hundred. This is now plus one ten. So fourth
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: fight's supposed to finish very similar money line money lines
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: on Chid and Alisan, very similar pricing on both of them,
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: very similar inside the distance on both of them, both
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: of them primary strikers. And I do think friend, if
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: someone was to wrestle, it would be friend in this one.
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: If someone was to wrestle, probably would be good in
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: in this one. So I look at these two fights
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: very very similar. I see you have a five star
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: for this one though, and a fourth star for this,
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: So explain why you like this fight more than you
• 29:36
  Speaker 4: like the cheat fight.
• 29:38
  Speaker 6: More or so just because I'm picking the favorite in
• 29:40
  Speaker 6: that one. I just think Alissan has the higher ceiling
• 29:42
  Speaker 6: of anyone there with his aggression in round one. If
• 29:46
  Speaker 6: he's going out there looking to knock Frahmed out, I
• 29:48
  Speaker 6: think he could do it. And if he does, he's
• 29:50
  Speaker 6: going to score over one hundred and ten points. So
• 29:52
  Speaker 6: that's what I'm picking to happen. That's why I put
• 29:54
  Speaker 6: five star there, But I do think you're right. If
• 29:56
  Speaker 6: he doesn't get that first round knockout, Frihm should be
• 30:00
  Speaker 6: looking to wrestle here, and it's gonna come easier after
• 30:02
  Speaker 6: round one, so I think he would put up a
• 30:04
  Speaker 6: good score too. Friend is a solid underdog in that one.
• 30:07
  Speaker 6: I just I love Alo Hassan in round one. Man,
• 30:10
  Speaker 6: can't I love when he's throwing those bombs. I hope
• 30:13
  Speaker 6: he gets it done, so that's why I got a
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: five star.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: I'll be heavy on him plus two hundred and round
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: one for Ellison again, Chied was plus three fifty friends
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: plus one thousand. I agree with you. I'm gonna be
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: playing both. I mean all four of these fighters. Again,
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: I look at him similar, I'll be playing all four.
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to make any rule because if there's
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: not a knockout, which I mean, it wouldn't be crazy.
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: Minus two hundred minus two twenty isn't the craziest inside
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: the distance prop.
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: If it goes to distance, I think the favorites.
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: Are very very very unlikely to get there since I
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: don't see much wrestling upside.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: And then that is when the dog I would hope
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: would win.
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: But even seventy eight hundred, you gotta do something seventy
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: six hundred a little more leeway. But with thirteen fights
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: and some live dogs, I'm looking for more than six
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: five seventy in a win, especially in the mid tier.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: But I do think Friend and good and do probably
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: score in the eighties nineties if they do win. So
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: I'm on Alissan here as well. I prefer Good And
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: to Friend if I had a pick. But I also
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: will say I do think the ownership gap between Elisson
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: and Friend might be a little too, might be a
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: little wide. I do think Alison's the most popular of
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: the four in the group. Minus one thirty to finish
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: at eighty four hundred. Everyone will see that, so and
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: chalk your lineups. I do like Friend can easily leave
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: that six hundred. Fill up your team with Elissan, drop
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: el Assan down to Friend as well, an easy way
• 31:39
  Speaker 4: to get different in MMA to keep rolling. Next fight
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: on the car, do we have Daniel Rodriguez d ROD
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: taking on Alex Morono minus two to ten is d
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: Rod plus one eighty is Morono plus one twenty for
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: this fight to finish d Rod plus two fifteen Alex
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: Morono plus three seventy five, So wow, a lot of
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: Let me see this quick inside the distance prop open
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: plus one twenty still plus one ten twenty. D Rod's
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: inside the distance prop open plus two eighty five now
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: plus two fifteen flip side Morono inside the distance open
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: plus two eighty five now plus three seventy five. I
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: absolutely love to see all of that. I like, d
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: Rod in the spot man Alex Morono looked like buns
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: last time out against Nico Price, like I could not
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: get over now. I usually don't try and like put
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: all my stock into their last fight, and so anything
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: can happen. People can be sick, hurt, just a bad day,
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: other dude good, et cetera. He looked awful, gassed early,
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: no power on the other side, had no rest like
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: it just looks like an awful Alex Morono and out
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: of shape like he usually does.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: Is the problem, d Rod. Look at this number.
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: Seven point four to two significant strikes per minute, neither
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: average over a takedown probably get a striking match.
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: This is good volume.
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: We still probably do need to finish though, at eighty
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: nine hundred with tyron I and k Alissan cheaper GD cheaper,
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: But I do like seeing the inside the distance prop
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: keep dropping for him. I will play some d Rod
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: and his alnership has to be capped right by Tyra.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: I'll keep it morono in the pool, but I'll be underweight.
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: I do not like what I saw. What are you
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: doing to this one?
• 33:21
  Speaker 6: Yeah, same thing. I expect a striking match in this one.
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: Neither are super dangerous, so I think it's gonna go
• 33:27
  Speaker 6: all three. I like Rodriguez to beat him with volume.
• 33:30
  Speaker 6: I think he's the crisper striker. I think he's gonna
• 33:32
  Speaker 6: be the one throwing out more strikes. You just know
• 33:35
  Speaker 6: that we're gonna hear a split decision at the end
• 33:37
  Speaker 6: of this one with some idiot judge not knowing what
• 33:40
  Speaker 6: they even saw, and then it'll be like and then
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: thirty twenty seven for this person. But give me d
• 33:47
  Speaker 6: Rod to get his name read off. It's gonna be
• 33:48
  Speaker 6: hard to pay off eighty nine hundred if he's not
• 33:51
  Speaker 6: landing any knockdowns along the way. I doubt he's landing
• 33:54
  Speaker 6: takedowns either, So I just expect him to win on
• 33:57
  Speaker 6: the feet and probably score like low eighties, and I
• 34:03
  Speaker 6: doubt that's gonna cut it. So I'm not gonna be
• 34:05
  Speaker 6: too heavy on this fight. I actually thought I had
• 34:07
  Speaker 6: it as a two star, so I'll probably end up
• 34:08
  Speaker 6: changing that up to a two star.
• 34:11
  Speaker 7: Uh d roud round one plus five seventy five, two
• 34:16
  Speaker 7: plus six seventy five, three plus nine hundred open plus
• 34:21
  Speaker 7: six fifteen Round one not plus five seventy five.
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: Usually you see round one for especially for favorites. This
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: big Round one weighted a lot heavier than round three,
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: but with them all pretty close, and I do think
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: that's right. Most of de Rod's finishes, I think or
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: him putting it on early with the volume and it
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: breaks Rono in the third round or something like that,
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: So I don't mind round three late flyers by ko
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: if Morono gases the epex so he can only run
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: around so much. But decision is the most likely The
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: Rods plus one fifty five to win by decision, which
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: is the most likely outcome in this fight.
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: Keep it going next fight.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: Four fights left on the card, this one the only
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: one star by far the most likely fight to go
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: the distance. Julia Plaste taking on Corey McKenna minus one
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: thirty two. Plast three plus one twelve is McKenna plus
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: two ninety for this fight to finish plas three plus
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: three ten inside the distance McKenna plus one thousand?
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: Are you playing any of them?
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: In?
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: I guess are you playing any of them?
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Period?
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: How many teams would it take you to play if
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: you're not playing any of them? How many teams would
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: it take you to be playing to finally play one
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: of them?
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 35:33
  Speaker 6: If I go twenty or less, I'm not gonna play
• 35:35
  Speaker 6: them all x app both sides make it.
• 35:37
  Speaker 5: A little bit easier of a car that way.
• 35:42
  Speaker 6: Fifty, then I'd be like, okay, if I'm making them
• 35:45
  Speaker 6: with the shift miser. If a couple of them had
• 35:48
  Speaker 6: this fight either way or the other, I'd probably rather
• 35:51
  Speaker 6: save the money and just take McKenna as my preferred play.
• 35:55
  Speaker 6: If mckinna wins this fight, I feel like it should
• 35:57
  Speaker 6: come on the ground. Maybe grappling would be her one
• 36:00
  Speaker 6: advantage in this fight. Yeah, with one fifty, I feel
• 36:04
  Speaker 6: like is that's when I would really start maybe throwing
• 36:06
  Speaker 6: in a little bit of both sides. See me with
• 36:08
  Speaker 6: like five percent pilast three eight percent mckinna, I'd be
• 36:12
  Speaker 6: fine with that. I think they could both get there
• 36:14
  Speaker 6: with a ground based type of fight. Or if it's
• 36:17
  Speaker 6: just a higher volume fight than I would expect, But
• 36:19
  Speaker 6: I just don't see that being the case. I do
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: think Pilasterree is the higher volume striker. I think she
• 36:24
  Speaker 6: has more behind her punches, so I expect her to
• 36:26
  Speaker 6: win the striking but not score well in a striking match.
• 36:30
  Speaker 6: I think she could land a couple takedowns along the
• 36:32
  Speaker 6: way too, But that's what McKinnon should be looking to do,
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: is wrestle and grapple. If she does, she's live. If
• 36:38
  Speaker 6: she doesn't, I think she just loses minutes on the feet.
• 36:41
  Speaker 6: And I do see this fight mostly taking place on
• 36:44
  Speaker 6: the feet. So give me Pilasteri to win, but it's
• 36:46
  Speaker 6: not looking to pay eighty three hundred dollars, especially when
• 36:49
  Speaker 6: Pierce is one hundred dollars cheaper.
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: Is there any wrestling or like finish upside for Pilasterree?
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: Plus three ten isn't bad? You look at this right here,
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is what I usually look at. One
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: of the shortest reaches of all time, five in three
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: servantage for pilaster three short sample volume looks good though.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: If someone wrestles, it is McKenna. But can Pilastree knock
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: her out on the feet. Could she do something the
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: third round finish? Crazy things happen in MMA.
• 37:18
  Speaker 6: Any thoughts, Yeah, I mean I guess she could. I
• 37:21
  Speaker 6: mean she's plus three ten not at the distance. It's
• 37:25
  Speaker 6: not terrible, but yeah, it would have to be like
• 37:27
  Speaker 6: an ownership player. I'm trying to shift this hundred k
• 37:30
  Speaker 6: by myself. Let me throw Pilastere in their type deal,
• 37:33
  Speaker 6: but I have a hard time seeing me do it.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you. It's a fade for me.
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: I was gonna probably, I was gonna maybe keep pilaster
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: in the pool in twenty and below, but I think
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: I don't think I'm gonna. I think she'll be she'll
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: get the X maybe ten percent something like that. This
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: fight very very low owned in the mid tier because
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: this fight actually, no, this fight's not even good either.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: This fight if you count in the mid tier, but
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: it's not. This fight a lot better. This fight a
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: lot better. And again, this fight's a lot better, which
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: isn't even the mid tier as well. So this if
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: you want to get different, play someone in this fight.
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: I think there's other better ways to get different though
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: on the card. So no McKenna, probably no plast three
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: in twenty and below. Let's get to another monster favorite,
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: the biggest or the highest price fighter on the card.
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: If we have another five star right here, Grant Aassin
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: taking on Ralpha Garcia minus four hundred Dawson plus three
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: hundred is Garcia plus one eighty For this fight to finish,
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: we have Dawson plus two to fifty inside the distance
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: Garcia plus five point fifty.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: You can see right here, man, what are the odds?
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: Both guys average three point sixty one takedowns per fifteen minutes.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: What I wanted to say about Grant Dawson, he is
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: the highest price, However, the score is in uh he is.
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: Let's see, I wrote it up in this slate, and
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: I want to make sure I got this right. He
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: has never scored less than eighty nine DraftKings and his
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: nine UFC wins six of them scored over one hundred,
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: and those are decision wins.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: What do you thought?
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: What are most of those are decision wins? Not all those,
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: but most of those are decision wins. Nevertheless, than eighty
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: nine DK points, six of those over one hundred, that
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: is pretty pretty impressive.
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: Ninety five hundreds a lot.
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: I think there's enough live dogs on the card though,
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: to make Dawson work, especially if he's getting one to twenty,
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: which I think is live in this one.
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: So how do you see it going down?
• 39:29
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I just think Dawson's kind of a better version
• 39:32
  Speaker 6: of Garcia. Garcia likes to get fights to the mat
• 39:35
  Speaker 6: and just wear on people, but I just think Dawson's
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: better at doing that, and I think he's more dangerous
• 39:39
  Speaker 6: once he gets the fight to the ground as well.
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: I like the pace Dawson sets with his grappling.
• 39:45
  Speaker 6: If he's not landing his first three or four takedowns,
• 39:48
  Speaker 6: I still expect him to shoot for ten more So
• 39:51
  Speaker 6: I like that in a fighter. So Dawson's gonna be
• 39:53
  Speaker 6: somebody I want as much as I can afford. But again,
• 39:56
  Speaker 6: I'm fine going to tough if I need that hundred bucks.
• 40:00
  Speaker 6: Same thing with Timba. I'll get my ownership to them
• 40:03
  Speaker 6: as well. But I just think this is a good
• 40:05
  Speaker 6: matchup for Dawson to go out there, land three to
• 40:08
  Speaker 6: six takedowns throughout the fight, put up a high pace,
• 40:10
  Speaker 6: and probably score one hundred and ten points in the process.
• 40:13
  Speaker 6: So Dawson's my preferred leverage play. I won't x Garcia out,
• 40:17
  Speaker 6: but he's like closer to a zero percent play than
• 40:21
  Speaker 6: he is like overweight. In my opinion, I'd be fine
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: getting up to ten percent max. I guess, yeah, give
• 40:29
  Speaker 6: me Dawson a win on the on the mat. He
• 40:31
  Speaker 6: just can't be striking in this fight at ninety five
• 40:33
  Speaker 6: hundred dollars if he thinks he's a better striker, even
• 40:36
  Speaker 6: if he is, if he wins a three round striking match, like,
• 40:39
  Speaker 6: we're screwed. So we need that wrestling at ninety five
• 40:41
  Speaker 6: hundred dollars.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I expect it. I mean, he is a
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: very good wrestler.
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: Rappler Bobby Green Chindom like, why even mess around on
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: the feet when you know you? And Raeflcasie is a
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: good wrestler himself, but Dawson looks to be a level above.
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: So I think he does wrestle. I think he probably
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: scores one hundred plus in a win. That's just what
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: one hundred does he score? Is there enough dogs that win?
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: I feel confident there is? And then what is Tyre's score?
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: What is TAFA score? What does Carpenter score? CHEETI all
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: those guys, et cetera. Even if Dawson's the highest score
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: on the slate, and just say he scores one fifteen,
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: that still might not be optimal. There's a couple one
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: oh eights around there for cheaper and how the salary
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: works out.
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: So I like Dawson.
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: I'll be playing some Dawson, but I usually with those
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: highest priced guys like I never have more than like
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: sixty percent. It's just I'm mixing in Park, which I
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: don't love, but mixing in d Rod Park all those
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: guys leaving six hundred dollars in salary and trying to
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: sell those ship. It's harder to leave six hundred when
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: playing Dawson. So two fights left though, just talked about
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: this Park fight. So this fight was booked for July twentieth.
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: They both weighed in and Park had to pull out
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: due to medical issues, so we get it months later.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: Very interesting minus one yes, Park plus one sixty five
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: is Brad Tavaris plus one eighty for this fight to
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: finish Park plus two to twenty five Tavors plus six
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: seventy five. I don't like this fight, That's why you
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: have it a two star. I agree. I think Park's
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: interesting is a pivot around cheety and Alisan who will
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: be more popular. But plus T twenty five inside of
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: the distance isn't bet either, so I'm playing him. I'm
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: not playing Tavares. He has literally like no upside go
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: look at his game A long at DraftKings terrible.
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: The problem with Park and it's not a problem.
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: Usually one point eighty three takedowns per fifteen minutes four
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: point five strikes both good great great takedown defense for
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: Brad Tavares. So I don't like much wrestling upside in
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: this one for Park, which means he just strikes expected
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: to go the distance. That's why you have it a
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: two start at more than likely bus. But I do
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: agree Park is my preferred play. Do you think he
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: can take Tavaris down or do you think it's fifteen
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: minutes on the feet.
• 42:59
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think he probably spends too much time on
• 43:01
  Speaker 6: the feet where I don't like Park either, but he
• 43:06
  Speaker 6: could mix in the wrestling and that's his chance at
• 43:08
  Speaker 6: scoring well. So I'm not going to x him out
• 43:09
  Speaker 6: of my player pool. I'm fine getting some Park at
• 43:12
  Speaker 6: eighty five hundred dollars. I do think he's just a
• 43:14
  Speaker 6: little bit better everywhere. Maybe Tavares can keep this fight
• 43:17
  Speaker 6: close because he is hard to take down, He's hard
• 43:20
  Speaker 6: to finish, so it could be a close striking match.
• 43:22
  Speaker 6: But tavar Is just never has any upside. I just
• 43:25
  Speaker 6: don't see him scoring one hundred points. He's only scored
• 43:27
  Speaker 6: over one hundred points once and that was against that
• 43:29
  Speaker 6: murderer Phil Beroni, so I don't see that happening ever
• 43:33
  Speaker 6: again in Tavara's career. To be honest with you, I'm
• 43:36
  Speaker 6: gonna ex him out at seventy seven hundred dollars. I
• 43:38
  Speaker 6: expect Park to win, but probably score less than ten x,
• 43:43
  Speaker 6: so I just won't get too much of him. But
• 43:44
  Speaker 6: I'd be fine getting close to twenty percent or so.
• 43:47
  Speaker 6: But that's field weight in my opinion.
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's how I am, too.
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: Like if I'm only playing three teams, I'm not playing
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: any Park or Tavares twenty teams. I'm keeping Park in
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: again in between cheety alis on for more expensive Park.
• 44:01
  Speaker 4: A good real life fighter has some power, maybe some takedowns,
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: even though we're not really accounting for that in this matchup.
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: But low own pivots just to fight, not a fight.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: I'm really gonna have much though definitely know to ours
• 44:15
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• 44:18
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• 44:20
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• 45:13
  Speaker 4: This should be a very fun fight to suer Tyra
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: taking on Brandon roy Val minus three hundred. Tyra plus
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: two fifty. Roy Val minus won seventy for this fight.
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: To finish, Tyra minus won twenty Royval plus five hundred.
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: Couple quick things. When I look at the stone, I
• 45:30
  Speaker 3: would see five.
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: Star you love this fight, three three you do not
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: care really who you have more of?
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: Both of them you like for their price.
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: See a little two inch height advantage, but a two
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: inch each advantage. I negate that stuff age though this
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: jumps out of the page twenty.
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: Four years old.
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: For Tyra sixteen to oh, he wins this fight, probably
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: gets a title shot, but hey, it's gonna be tough.
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: I mentioned earlier a couple like two lines really surprised
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: me after Royvel's performance against and in Moreno, I am
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: surprised to see minus three hundred for two su or
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: Tyra at this number, I'm picking royvelle. I get Tyra
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: be in the favor for sure, but man minus three
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: hundred against like Pantosia couldn't submit Royvel. How is Tyra
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: minus won twenty inside the distance? I would I be surprised, No,
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: not at all, but favored to finish the fight when
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: Pantosia wasn't even close as a grappler, wrestler, etc.
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: Moreno looked flat, but Rovel looked great.
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: Like talk to me, why is this line and again
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: I mentioned previously. When I'm thinking all this and I
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: see it, I then tell myself I'm wrong, and I
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: lean into the money because you always. I always follow
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: the money. It's what I've done, try to do most
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: of my life. Money usually leads you to sharp action.
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: I didn't put anything on this fight, So tell me
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: why this line's minus three hundred and Tyro's gonna.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Get a finish.
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't. I don't understand the line.
• 46:54
  Speaker 6: I did this fight when Tyro was like minus one
• 46:57
  Speaker 6: ninety five, and even then I was like, man, this
• 47:00
  Speaker 6: is probably dogger pass.
• 47:02
  Speaker 5: So now it's definitely dogger pass.
• 47:03
  Speaker 6: And I'm sort of interested in a roy Val bet
• 47:06
  Speaker 6: at this point. I mean, Tyra is just all the hype.
• 47:10
  Speaker 6: He's young, He's probably gonna get better in between every fight.
• 47:12
  Speaker 6: He's nasty on the ground. He looks pretty good on
• 47:16
  Speaker 6: the feet too. I don't think he can win a
• 47:18
  Speaker 6: striking match against roy Val yet, and all the output
• 47:22
  Speaker 6: he could put out over the course of five rounds,
• 47:25
  Speaker 6: but roy Val has no takedown defense, and Tyra is
• 47:29
  Speaker 6: really good at getting people to the ground, and once
• 47:31
  Speaker 6: he's there, he just kind of dominates everybody. So I
• 47:33
  Speaker 6: think Tyra by submission is my most likely outcome in
• 47:41
  Speaker 6: this fight. I do like him for that scenario. But
• 47:44
  Speaker 6: if he's having trouble getting roy Val down or roy
• 47:48
  Speaker 6: Val scrambles get back to his feet, which he's really
• 47:50
  Speaker 6: good at, I think that roy VAL's gonna beat him
• 47:54
  Speaker 6: in a decision. I had somewhat favor roy Val in
• 47:57
  Speaker 6: the decision, and at seventy two hundred dollars, like roy
• 48:00
  Speaker 6: Val is probably putting up one hundred in any win.
• 48:03
  Speaker 6: So if I end up with more roy Val exposure,
• 48:06
  Speaker 6: I'm fine with that. I think I put in the notes,
• 48:08
  Speaker 6: I'd be fine anywhere from thirty five percent to sixty
• 48:12
  Speaker 6: five percent on either side. So I just if i'm handbuilding,
• 48:15
  Speaker 6: I'm starting with other fights and then I'm squeezing this
• 48:18
  Speaker 6: one in one way or the other with the domstation.
• 48:22
  Speaker 6: I don't know if I want to make a rule
• 48:23
  Speaker 6: or the shift to minds. I don't know if I
• 48:25
  Speaker 6: want to make a rule that I am gonna lock
• 48:29
  Speaker 6: this fight in, but I kind of do want it
• 48:31
  Speaker 6: in all my lineups, and if I have one hundred percent,
• 48:36
  Speaker 6: I'm fine. If it's fifty and fifty, I don't love that,
• 48:38
  Speaker 6: But if I'm cool with everything else, I'd keep it.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: I'm making the rule in twenty and below, and not
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: that I think you have to or like, would I
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: be shocked if it was in on the winner. No,
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: not as necessarily, but more so on a thirteen fight
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: card with twenty teams or less. Like Campbell said, has
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: played less or play less play tighter. I for some reason,
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: I think it's a little different variation of it, but
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: essentially the less lineups you play the tighter player pool
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: because you want to have a more narrow path and
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: give your shot a real give your chance a real
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: shot at shipping.
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: And again I'm not making a big stand.
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: This fight could be ninety three percent combined ownership, but
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: I love one hundred so seven percent I'm telling myself
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: is dead. If it's not on the winner, you know
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: you have no chance. But if it does, you have
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: five spots to figure out. And I said the same
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: thing in the slate plan, I find with sixty five
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: percent on either side, I'm probably gonna cap it at
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: sixty five. Maybe send me thirty tyra because at ownership
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: it's not crazy.
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: But I'd be fine if I got fifty to fifty,
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: Like I like more.
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: I like Roval if I had to pick a side,
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: because I'm picking him the price in everything. But like
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: I said, the my movements me thinking this fight was
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: priced really wrong.
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: Minus won twenty to finish.
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: Tyra wanting to fight on the mat like he has big,
• 49:54
  Speaker 4: big boy upside in this one.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: So I'm making roll twenty and below. I'm not with twenty.
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: Teams are high.
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: Again, if you fade this fight, you're automatically different right away.
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: I'll make other stands in less than twenty to get
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: a little different. But a great fight to target. I
• 50:09
  Speaker 4: really don't have a preferred side, Like if I had
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: to pick one roy Val. But if I'm up sixty
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: five Tyra thirty five roy Val, that could be overweight
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: Tyra with the field maybe a little roy Val, I'd
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: be good with that too. So I just hope it's
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: on the optimal at the end of the day, big
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: boy fights for the flyweight division as well. Any final
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: thoughts on that fight, any final thoughts on this card?
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: Thirteen fights. Always enjoy talking on with you.
• 50:33
  Speaker 6: Yeah, now, I'm looking forward to this one. I think
• 50:35
  Speaker 6: that main event is going to be a fun one.
• 50:37
  Speaker 6: It'll tell us how good tyra is if he is
• 50:39
  Speaker 6: able to look like a minus two seventy favorite in
• 50:41
  Speaker 6: that one. So I can't wait for this card. I
• 50:43
  Speaker 6: saw Jordan Mason's back in so maybe you're a little
• 50:46
  Speaker 6: bit live, But I don't know if he's gonna say
• 50:47
  Speaker 6: it or not. It looked like he was in pain. Yeah,
• 50:51
  Speaker 6: hopefully this does go well for us. Man, I'd like
• 50:54
  Speaker 6: to see one of us ship it. If not, hopefully
• 50:56
  Speaker 6: somebody in the in the comments is shipping instead.
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: But good luck title to left everybody listening, Let's ship it.
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely good DFS card thirteen fights fingers crossed. We
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: keep them all and all content will be up tomorrow
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: in the morning, in the afternoon. Again.
• 51:11
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• 51:52
  Speaker 1: Peace has.
• 52:10
  Speaker 8: Mother, hasts have mist nother would have fast, must have
• 52:21
  Speaker 8: a still mother. Not any The mists have never st
• 52:29
  Speaker 8: nother an fast. Most have ens