Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Sentiment Apocalypse!🔥Market Crash Update📉
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Crypto centiment apocalypse is upon us today. We're going to
- 0:02Speaker 1: break it down for you what is happening in the markets.
- 0:05Speaker 1: You don't want to miss it. Let's just get right
- 0:06Speaker 1: into it. I do want to thank our sponsor, and
- 0:08Speaker 1: that's Tangum. This is actually the time to go into
- 0:12Speaker 1: self custody, guys, because if you're in a bear market,
- 0:14Speaker 1: you want to lock this up into self custody. And
- 0:16Speaker 1: the way you can do it is jump over to
- 0:18Speaker 1: tangent dot com. We have a pretty special deal for you,
- 0:21Speaker 1: and that is their Black Friday program has started today,
- 0:24Speaker 1: so you can get this through December of the ninth,
- 0:26Speaker 1: and it also stacks the discount, so you get our
- 0:29Speaker 1: discount plus the additional twenty percent off and a ten
- 0:32Speaker 1: dollars bitcoin reward.
- 0:34Speaker 2: So check it out.
- 0:35Speaker 1: Make sure and go take part of this Black Friday program.
- 0:39Speaker 1: Use the codes down below. It's going to get you
- 0:41Speaker 1: into the program. Let's get into a couple of points today,
- 0:45Speaker 1: crypto markets face a brutal retest overnight, especially as liquidations
- 0:49Speaker 1: now surpass two billion. When you look at this being
- 0:53Speaker 1: the second hit that we've seen so far, Bitcoin of
- 0:57Speaker 1: course plunge ten percent on the day falling as low
- 0:59Speaker 1: as eighty one five, and you look at coin glass
- 1:02Speaker 1: two point two billion in positions. We're also affecting more
- 1:06Speaker 1: than four hundred thousand traders, so a lot of people
- 1:09Speaker 1: out there in pain right now. As we go into
- 1:12Speaker 1: what many could think a bear market. Let me know
- 1:15Speaker 1: if you guys think that's the case. Are we in
- 1:17Speaker 1: a bear market? Drop a comment down below, Have we
- 1:20Speaker 1: entered it? And will it be a short one or
- 1:22Speaker 1: a long one? As we start to go into twenty
- 1:24Speaker 1: twenty six, if you look at the crypto Fear and
- 1:27Speaker 1: Greed index.
- 1:29Speaker 2: This is the lowest it has ever been.
- 1:32Speaker 1: This is no man's land, and it's really unknown as
- 1:36Speaker 1: to what it would take to come back out of this.
- 1:39Speaker 3: Now.
- 1:39Speaker 1: There's a lot of catalysts that have failed over the
- 1:42Speaker 1: last really two to three weeks that we thought would
- 1:45Speaker 1: already be in place by the year end, and now
- 1:48Speaker 1: we're dealing with not only economic uncertainty, but uncertainty around
- 1:52Speaker 1: the FED, uncertainty around tariff's, uncertainty, around where the economy
- 1:56Speaker 1: is going, jobs, you name it. The perfect storm is
- 1:59Speaker 1: deaf only here. Even CNN Fear and Greed also holding
- 2:04Speaker 1: at ten, which is extremely bad. One year ago, we
- 2:07Speaker 1: were at a fifty six, right there, guys, fifty six,
- 2:12Speaker 1: So compare that to where we are today.
- 2:14Speaker 2: I want to go to a clip.
- 2:15Speaker 1: This first clip we're going to play is the sentiment
- 2:18Speaker 1: of the market.
- 2:19Speaker 2: Take a look cryptos.
- 2:21Speaker 4: I've finished title crypti moket cap is down eight point
- 2:25Speaker 4: one six percent.
- 2:27Speaker 2: Many people are like, oh my gosh, it's yes, don't work.
- 2:29Speaker 5: It all started because of a software bug on one
- 2:32Speaker 5: major crypto exchange. I think that we could see it
- 2:35Speaker 5: as low as sixty.
- 2:37Speaker 2: Your favorite coins are going to die.
- 2:39Speaker 3: You don't need to do much further than dult.
- 2:41Speaker 6: The market is going to crash ninety percent after November
- 2:45Speaker 6: twenty second.
- 2:46Speaker 5: Here's where the fuck I'm at today with XRP still
- 2:49Speaker 5: taking no.
- 2:50Speaker 4: No, no, no no no no wait wait wait wait why.
- 2:54Speaker 7: Is XRP not at ten dollars? Why is it not
- 2:57Speaker 7: at one thousand dollars?
- 2:59Speaker 5: All manipulation XRP army listen up right now, scame time.
- 3:04Speaker 8: Are bigcoiners really starting to buy XRP?
- 3:08Speaker 2: Wall Street stamp of a buy ah bye before you
- 3:12Speaker 2: hit that sale button, send it to me. I cash
- 3:14Speaker 2: happy all right? As you can see a little bit
- 3:17Speaker 2: over the top there.
- 3:18Speaker 1: But I think a lot of people in a position
- 3:20Speaker 1: right now where they're trying to figure out why they
- 3:22Speaker 1: didn't take profits, why they weren't taking profits on the
- 3:25Speaker 1: way up or even on the way down in some cases.
- 3:27Speaker 1: And this is where the market is today. Now you
- 3:30Speaker 1: might be saying this is really not a big issue.
- 3:34Speaker 1: I'm looking at long term holding here. This is something
- 3:37Speaker 1: If you're kind of in the short term game, then.
- 3:39Speaker 2: Yeah, you're toast. But if you're in a long.
- 3:42Speaker 1: Term game and you listen to Rabul Powell talk about this,
- 3:45Speaker 1: you might go with a.
- 3:47Speaker 2: Little more comfort.
- 3:47Speaker 3: Take a look, and it just staggers me. It staggers
- 3:53Speaker 3: me because you've all lost your shit. You're throwing poo
- 3:55Speaker 3: at each other. The fear and gred index is absolutely
- 3:58Speaker 3: shockingly low, almost unheard of, and all it's been doing
- 4:02Speaker 3: is doing the same old shit, and it always does this.
- 4:04Speaker 3: In twenty twenty four, same correction, And you guys were
- 4:08Speaker 3: losing your fucking shit back then as well. You're all
- 4:11Speaker 3: losing your fucking shit. I mean, it's unbelievable to see
- 4:15Speaker 3: what is going on out there. Take a step back
- 4:17Speaker 3: and buy the fucking dep if you can. You should
- 4:19Speaker 3: be begging anybody for money right now on the streets.
- 4:21Speaker 3: Maybe if you can play guitar and even do one
- 4:23Speaker 3: of these stupid bloody statue things. I put some in
- 4:27Speaker 3: week before last at higher prices, I buzz.
- 4:32Speaker 2: Them at higher prices.
- 4:33Speaker 1: With that, you also have to look at what Ryan
- 4:36Speaker 1: John Adams said, which if you had bought and continued
- 4:39Speaker 1: to buy Bitcoin and eighth at times of extreme fear,
- 4:42Speaker 1: and sold at times of extreme greed, then obviously you're up. Yes,
- 4:46Speaker 1: we understand those kinds of things. Twenty twenty is great
- 4:50Speaker 1: when you can look back. We put up this poll.
- 4:53Speaker 1: Was the latest crypto drop? Just a bull market correction
- 4:57Speaker 1: or buy the dip opportunity or the start of a
- 4:59Speaker 1: bear market? Guys, I think unfortunately, this is the beginning
- 5:03Speaker 1: of a bear market. Now the real question is how
- 5:06Speaker 1: long does it last? Is it a short term bear market?
- 5:08Speaker 1: There are a lot of catalysts that could compound and
- 5:12Speaker 1: completely reverse something like this, But right now, the amount
- 5:16Speaker 1: of problems that we're going into by the end of
- 5:19Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, in or early twenty twenty six, and
- 5:22Speaker 1: maybe even to Q two of twenty twenty six are
- 5:25Speaker 1: stacking up against the market in general. And I'm not
- 5:27Speaker 1: talking about just the crypto market. I'm talking about the
- 5:30Speaker 1: S and P five hundred what that's going to look like.
- 5:33Speaker 1: So right now I would consider either one looking at
- 5:37Speaker 1: long term holding, which is really the vision I look at.
- 5:40Speaker 1: This is a time horizon situation, as it is in
- 5:43Speaker 1: most investing markets. One thing you can count on for
- 5:48Speaker 1: sure is that FIAT will be the one to stay
- 5:51Speaker 1: out of whether you get into gold, whether you get
- 5:54Speaker 1: into bitcoin, other assets that can go in this direction,
- 5:57Speaker 1: even if you go into some of the stocks and
- 5:59Speaker 1: bonds out there to secure some of your positions. The
- 6:03Speaker 1: point is is that long term, and when I say
- 6:05Speaker 1: long term three to seven years, that's the range that
- 6:08Speaker 1: I always look at. Three five seven that's a typical
- 6:11Speaker 1: range of which I've done in VC investing and angel investing.
- 6:15Speaker 1: Those are typically the opportunities that start to get you in.
- 6:17Speaker 2: A position to where you can sell.
- 6:19Speaker 1: The problem is that a lot of people do not
- 6:21Speaker 1: take profits, and that's the biggest issue of all. Let's
- 6:25Speaker 1: go to another clip here, because this is where Scott
- 6:27Speaker 1: Besson starts to break down how the economy is doing.
- 6:30Speaker 2: It doesn't look good. Take a look.
- 6:33Speaker 9: So there was a lot of good economic news out
- 6:36Speaker 9: there today.
- 6:38Speaker 4: So you know, I would believe that the FED should
- 6:45Speaker 4: be looking at the data and thinking things could.
- 6:53Speaker 7: We don't know where things are. We've been cutting and
- 6:56Speaker 7: we should finish the cutting cycle or keep going with
- 7:00Speaker 7: the cutting cycle.
- 7:01Speaker 9: When will young people who seem persistently pessimistic, when do
- 7:06Speaker 9: you think they will begin to see the benefits?
- 7:09Speaker 7: I actually brought this to show you and your viewers today.
- 7:12Speaker 7: This is the first rare earth magnet made in the
- 7:16Speaker 7: United States in twenty five years, eight hundred construction jobs.
- 7:21Speaker 7: I am very optimistic about the first second and accelerating
- 7:26Speaker 7: into the third quarter. In terms of growth, we are
- 7:29Speaker 7: going back to Trump style growth.
- 7:33Speaker 2: Ah Man, that was painful.
- 7:35Speaker 1: First of all, I feel for Scott Bessen in the
- 7:38Speaker 1: sense that he can't get out a message to a
- 7:41Speaker 1: friendly interviewer around where the economy is that concerns me
- 7:45Speaker 1: when that is the Secretary of Treasury that isn't a
- 7:47Speaker 1: position that doesn't understand where the economic conditions are in
- 7:51Speaker 1: the US right now and why we are seeing these
- 7:54Speaker 1: unstable scenarios play out now. I think it boils down
- 7:58Speaker 1: to a real core element that is of course going
- 8:01Speaker 1: to be global liquidity. The sentiment that we've already started
- 8:04Speaker 1: to see brewing over months, if not over the last year,
- 8:08Speaker 1: and that is really around the core economy. All of
- 8:10Speaker 1: this eventually fades up into businesses, investment advisors, and then
- 8:14Speaker 1: obviously even into institutional capital. The S and P five
- 8:18Speaker 1: hundred is down five percent from its record high, and
- 8:21Speaker 1: a bubble callers are now in full swing. You look
- 8:24Speaker 1: at that, and I think the key here, even though
- 8:26Speaker 1: in Vidia ran away with earnings in terms of a
- 8:29Speaker 1: good thing, can you imagine where the market would be
- 8:32Speaker 1: head in Vidia not actually posted good earnings. That is
- 8:36Speaker 1: the kind of tightrope that we're walking, and really, in consideration,
- 8:41Speaker 1: a very very delicate scenario is right now in Vidia
- 8:45Speaker 1: running annualized revenue of two hundred billion with a forward
- 8:47Speaker 1: pe that's lower than Walmart. So imagine that guys lower
- 8:52Speaker 1: than Walmart. That's a big that's a big statement. I
- 8:55Speaker 1: want to go to another clip here because this is
- 8:57Speaker 1: where Tom Lee goes into and this is getting into
- 8:59Speaker 1: a thing. And though I am a fan of Tom Lee,
- 9:04Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of his bullishness at certain times,
- 9:07Speaker 1: but his statements here concerned me a little bit.
- 9:11Speaker 2: Take a look, I think.
- 9:12Speaker 6: It was October six or seventh, the twenty hit one
- 9:15Speaker 6: hundred and twenty five thousand. Yeah, a couple days later
- 9:18Speaker 6: it was still around one hundred and twenty thousand. Now,
- 9:21Speaker 6: obviously bitcoins at eighty six and change. So what specifically
- 9:25Speaker 6: occurred on or around October tenth that would lead us
- 9:29Speaker 6: to where we are now?
- 9:30Speaker 3: On what November twentieth?
- 9:33Speaker 5: Yeah, Well, Steve actually pointed this out. There's a lot
- 9:36Speaker 5: of what they call automated processes in crypto. One of
- 9:40Speaker 5: them is called adl okay, and that's an automatic liquidation
- 9:44Speaker 5: feature that would take place if someone's account or their
- 9:48Speaker 5: collateral drops in price. It's essentially like a margin column.
- 9:52Speaker 6: So who is behind this? Like, who's the they? In
- 9:57Speaker 6: the market makers and they got hit? Who's the they?
- 10:01Speaker 5: Well, you know, Brian, I am. I am aware of names,
- 10:06Speaker 5: but because you know, I'm not someone who wants to
- 10:09Speaker 5: name names.
- 10:10Speaker 7: I hate talk to Tim.
- 10:11Speaker 4: Let me, let me go.
- 10:12Speaker 6: I want to go back to this point, Tom. I
- 10:13Speaker 6: hate the term glitch. It's a word that is used
- 10:16Speaker 6: to describe pretty serious automation issues, software problems, crashes for
- 10:21Speaker 6: some reason that they try to minimize. Is this some
- 10:25Speaker 6: kind of a software bug that's causing part of this.
- 10:30Speaker 6: I'm trying to follow exactly what you're hinting around about
- 10:34Speaker 6: in crypto.
- 10:35Speaker 5: This code of ADL and the way they pull prices
- 10:39Speaker 5: never going to happen again. The good news is we're
- 10:42Speaker 5: not going to have overregulation in crypto. But now we
- 10:45Speaker 5: have to deal with that liquidation effect. Twenty twenty two
- 10:48Speaker 5: was a big liquidation and it took eight weeks. But
- 10:53Speaker 5: that is not kind of You're right. It is the
- 10:55Speaker 5: nature of DeFi where there is going to be code
- 10:58Speaker 5: and there's gonna be an error found, and you've said
- 11:01Speaker 5: it leverages what's dangerous and all.
- 11:04Speaker 1: Right, So from that statement that Tom was making, first
- 11:06Speaker 1: of all, I was a little bit taken back by
- 11:09Speaker 1: his analysis on it, and I think someone that does
- 11:12Speaker 1: understand you have to remember Tom was not necessarily early
- 11:15Speaker 1: to ethereum. He was early somewhat to bitcoin, at least
- 11:18Speaker 1: for Wall Street standards. But his understanding of where this
- 11:21Speaker 1: market is I think is completely off. Now Jan van
- 11:25Speaker 1: k I think is actually more in line. He actually
- 11:29Speaker 1: stated it here in this tweet. I'm mitching to join
- 11:30Speaker 1: Sully that was the interviewer there on that clip. There
- 11:33Speaker 1: three things mattered to bitcoin global liquidity number one. Really,
- 11:37Speaker 1: that's all that matters is global liquidity. Crypto ecosystem liquidity
- 11:41Speaker 1: and unchain activity not as much. It is global liquidity,
- 11:44Speaker 1: which all translates to that. And I think this is
- 11:47Speaker 1: the problem because really the question for Tom Lee is
- 11:50Speaker 1: how long can b M and R hold because his
- 11:55Speaker 1: position right now is serious, and how this plays out
- 11:59Speaker 1: over the next few weeks, into the end of the
- 12:01Speaker 1: year and possibly into the FED decision on December the
- 12:06Speaker 1: tenth is going to be critical.
- 12:08Speaker 2: All right.
- 12:09Speaker 1: So here's a tweet right here that kind of breaks
- 12:11Speaker 1: it down. This is Flood more of a bitcoin guy,
- 12:13Speaker 1: but he's talking about BM and R setting on three
- 12:15Speaker 1: point one billion dollars in unrealized loss on eth and
- 12:19Speaker 1: this is the fud that we're starting to see move
- 12:21Speaker 1: into the market. And this is the time when you're
- 12:23Speaker 1: going to see the kind of scenario that we are
- 12:27Speaker 1: seeing right now. The real question is do we see
- 12:29Speaker 1: another major leg down on bitcoin because we could see
- 12:33Speaker 1: a sub eighty k bitcoin quickly, and of course that
- 12:35Speaker 1: part starts to put a lot of pressure on micro
- 12:38Speaker 1: strategy others. If you look at back to ethereum, here's
- 12:42Speaker 1: the average price price right now for ETH treasury companies,
- 12:46Speaker 1: and that is of course Bit Digital. You can kind of
- 12:49Speaker 1: see sharpening gaming NASDACBTCS, the Zilla, the ETH machine, even
- 12:53Speaker 1: bitmindsetting it around thirty nine. We don't know for sure
- 12:56Speaker 1: if that number is accurate, because I've seen numbers also
- 13:00Speaker 1: around thirty six hundred. But this will start to get very,
- 13:03Speaker 1: very critical should we start to see things like activist
- 13:07Speaker 1: investors or any of those kind of things that play
- 13:09Speaker 1: around in this. A couple of points right here, he
- 13:12Speaker 1: bought ETH at a local near all time highs.
- 13:14Speaker 2: Because the market gave him the facility to do that
- 13:16Speaker 2: at the time.
- 13:17Speaker 1: At the bottom, he could likely have come close to
- 13:19Speaker 1: acquiring the same amount of easts. By the way dats work,
- 13:22Speaker 1: as they get to buy more when the prices underlying
- 13:24Speaker 1: asset is going up, Generally, second and third tier dats
- 13:28Speaker 1: probably get blown out in a bear market.
- 13:30Speaker 2: And then if we do get.
- 13:32Speaker 1: Activist investors that could try to force them to sell,
- 13:35Speaker 1: but you know, don't be surprised when most of those don't.
- 13:37Speaker 1: I think this is the thing where conviction will play
- 13:40Speaker 1: into this for Tom Lee and for the key investors
- 13:44Speaker 1: within BM and R. But Digital asset Treasury may be
- 13:46Speaker 1: on a very short rope going in. Other news that hit,
- 13:50Speaker 1: and this is on the bitcoin camp, is that Michael
- 13:53Speaker 1: Saylor's strategy now facing Nasdaq and MSCI delisting as MicroStrategy
- 13:58Speaker 1: stock drops fifty seven, So there's a possibility where we
- 14:02Speaker 1: could start to see some pressure on micro Strategy as well.
- 14:05Speaker 1: The real question is when and where and if Michael
- 14:09Speaker 1: Saylor would be put in the same kind of boat,
- 14:11Speaker 1: and if you kind of compare Sailor and Tom Lee,
- 14:13Speaker 1: because that's really the two competitors when you think about
- 14:17Speaker 1: these two tokens. Tom Lee should have been in a
- 14:19Speaker 1: better position to answer these questions and maybe give the
- 14:22Speaker 1: market a little bit of calmness of understanding where ethereum
- 14:27Speaker 1: could go, where are the opportunities. He didn't even mention
- 14:30Speaker 1: that there's a major upgrade coming, which is happening in
- 14:32Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks. Didn't mention that there are
- 14:35Speaker 1: so many catalysts that have been underperforming and we're still
- 14:39Speaker 1: in a position where reality is we're close to a
- 14:42Speaker 1: three K eath, So there was a lot of opportunity
- 14:46Speaker 1: there that they think he missed. Micro Strategy Bitcoin position
- 14:49Speaker 1: is almost red Bitcoin just extended. It's declined to around
- 14:52Speaker 1: eighty thoy five hundred, just six thousand dollars away from
- 14:56Speaker 1: an entry of seventy four to three or seventy four
- 14:59Speaker 1: to four. So it does put a little pressure on
- 15:03Speaker 1: micro strategy. Just forty six days ago, micro strategy also
- 15:05Speaker 1: the position was up seventy percent, so you look at
- 15:08Speaker 1: that in comparison to where.
- 15:10Speaker 2: We are now.
- 15:11Speaker 1: Big turnaround on the micro strategy position overall. One other
- 15:15Speaker 1: thing I want to hit on, of course, is whether
- 15:17Speaker 1: or not Michael Saylor was trolling or not on that
- 15:20Speaker 1: first Titanic.
- 15:22Speaker 2: If you guys probably saw that video or that.
- 15:24Speaker 1: Post, and he recorrected that and just simply said endure
- 15:29Speaker 1: even though these guys look like they're a little upset
- 15:32Speaker 1: at well, the whole situation. Let's go into one more
- 15:35Speaker 1: thing I want to hit on, and this, of course,
- 15:37Speaker 1: is whether there is a future in digital asset treasuries.
- 15:40Speaker 8: Take a look, the interest in the dats just like
- 15:43Speaker 8: completely dried up, and now the dats are selling right,
- 15:46Speaker 8: and so we've seen a you know, since we had
- 15:50Speaker 8: that kind of de leveraging event, what it was three
- 15:52Speaker 8: weeks ago or so, there's been basically a constant cell pressure.
- 15:57Speaker 8: I think too. Shar from multi coin tweet, Oh, it
- 16:00Speaker 8: looks like, you know, for selling, and somebody else responded
- 16:05Speaker 8: to it that was basically I've never seen like orderly
- 16:08Speaker 8: for selling for weeks at a time. It usually happens
- 16:11Speaker 8: much quicker at jams in the market. People are trying
- 16:13Speaker 8: to meet margin calls. And I agree with that point,
- 16:17Speaker 8: is that what it doesn't look like right now to
- 16:18Speaker 8: me is that we're having you know, call it for selling.
- 16:22Speaker 8: What it looks like to me is we're just having
- 16:23Speaker 8: people go risk off broadly, and crypto is still just
- 16:27Speaker 8: a risk asset, and the and the dats are selling
- 16:30Speaker 8: because they're buying back shares because they're trending defend their
- 16:32Speaker 8: share price, and they don't have any liquidity because people
- 16:35Speaker 8: don't see any reason to buy the fifteenth you know dat,
- 16:39Speaker 8: and they also want to go to risk off. And
- 16:41Speaker 8: I think we're probably in for a pullback broadly on
- 16:44Speaker 8: the equity markets and all risk assets because there's just
- 16:48Speaker 8: too much happening that's you know, very unclear. There's just
- 16:52Speaker 8: too much uncertainty from macroeconomic perspective.
- 16:55Speaker 1: Well, I would agree with that statement. Just too much
- 16:58Speaker 1: uncertainty on the macroc and position, and he is right.
- 17:02Speaker 1: I mean, most of the time they are trying to
- 17:03Speaker 1: defend their share price. That is an issue overall. But
- 17:06Speaker 1: one thing that is not something you should maybe consider
- 17:10Speaker 1: is this statement right here Jim Kramer. Lots of good
- 17:13Speaker 1: elements are lining up for a rally. I don't know
- 17:16Speaker 1: if I believe that. Guys, do you trust that guy?
- 17:18Speaker 2: Yes?
- 17:19Speaker 3: No?
- 17:20Speaker 1: Put it in the comments down below. All right, you
- 17:22Speaker 1: guys know what to do. Make sure and jump into
- 17:24Speaker 1: our own diamond circle. It's where you guys can join.
- 17:26Speaker 1: Of course, it's free. Cut the link down below, and
- 17:29Speaker 1: of course follow me out there on X at Paul Baron.
- 17:31Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time right here on The Paul
- 17:33Speaker 1: Baron Show.