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Transcript

MLB Playoffs Bracket Special · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: never seen anything like this.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: my Bruins hack Man, I don't know what is going
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: on with the Bruins. Arch eight? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: I don't even know it's March ninth. I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: back with you after the worst day that I can.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: yesterday it did not go well for me. Own five.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: The worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: To the slumpy perise, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody, It's Toad back with you. This is
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: better off dead.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be the Major League Baseball postseason special,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be going into this basically doing what
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I usually do, filling out a bracket. I mean, the
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: baseball playoff bracket's a little bit different. I don't even
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: know what I'm about to do here, to be honest,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I'm going in pretty much completely blind. So this is
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be complete idiocy. But I've done this for NBA, NHL.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I got the NHL champion and right with the Florida Panthers. Baseball,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: I think is the most unpredictable, though NHL probably the
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: second most unpredictable out of like the four may well actually.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: Don't yeah, I don't know. NFL is pretty unpredictable too.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: NBA is the most predictable, even though I got the
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: champion wrong this year.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: I mean Jason Tatum got hurt whatever, like what can
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: you do the But I think baseball's got to be
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the most unpredictable though hockey second, because.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Those are the sports.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: That are just well, I mean, NFL you don't have series,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: so like the better team might lose on any given
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: day too, so they're all really unpredictable.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: But baseball has some shorter.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Series, has some buys going on, some gays as well.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: It's pretty weird.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: NHL at least has kind of longer series and no buys,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: so you can kind of.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Predict it.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It's more predictable in that way, I guess. But both
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: NHL and MLB they got a lot of like low scoring,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: close games basically, so it's kind of it's difficult to
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: figure out what's going on. Man.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go into this.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do what I usually do usually, I'm gonna like,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, for baseball, I kind of want to go
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: in like break down, like, well, who are like the
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: picture is gonna be in each like rotation, but I
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: don't even know if we know like what the teams
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: are gonna how they're gonna set up some of their rotations.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So I don't even know. Man, it's gonna be kind
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: of crazy. I mean, kind of bring up the schedule
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: and see. I don't want this to be a long video.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: By the way, I was gonna have Clint joined me
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: for this, but Clint has some some family related things
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: that he needs to attend to, so he is not
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be joining me for this. So I'm just gonna
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: do it now. I'm gonna be out tomorrow night, so
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it now. But let's let's just get into it, man,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: because the the.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Structure is set.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: At least, I have the schedule up here so you
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: can actually kind of see it starts Tuesday with I
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: guess half of the series get get going on Tuesday,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: starting in the afternoon.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna just look at like the.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Bracket instead here and this is the bracket here as
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: we can see it here, six teams on each side.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Make them make the bracket now because there are three
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: divisional winners three wild cards. Oh so you do know, Okay, Yes,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: prayers for Clint's dad for sure. Everybody pray for Clint's dad.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, I wasn't sure that anybody actually knew about her,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: that it was public but yes, I don't want to
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: say anything just because I don't know how much is public.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to say anything about it. But yeah,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: but yes, thank you, Charles.
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: So three divisional winners, of course, each.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Make the playoffs, the each host the first round, and
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: then the team with the better record hosts from then on.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're doing the stupid All Star thing anymore,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: where the team that wins the All Star Game, the
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: league that wins the All Star Game is to host
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the World Series. I don't think that that's happening anymore.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: But then we have the wild Cards getting in. Of course,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the big stories were kind of that Cleveland got in
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: after that ridiculous run that they and they actually won
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the NL Central after they were losing by double digit
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: wins or by they had a double digit the Tigers
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: had a double digit lead, let's just put it that way.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: And Cleveland was actually in fourth place I think in
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: like mid July in that division and they're not even
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: good offensively. I mean, it's just crazy. I mean they
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: offend me at least. So that was one of the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: huge stories. Houston got left out for the first time
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: in almost a decade as they did not make it,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: and the other big stories the Mets got left out,
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: and the Mets statistically had some of the like some
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: metrics that were like better than almost every team that
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: gets left out of the play Like they're one of
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: the best teams that's ever been left out of the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: playoffs statistically in various ways. The Mets had some pretty
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: good hitting, some pretty solid pitching as well, and they
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: don't make the playoffs. That's crazy. And the way that
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: we do it now, I mean, there are three wildcards now,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: so it's pretty crazy for those teams to not make
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: the playoffs.
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: So we can see the structure here, the one in
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: the two seeds.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: I get buys now in each league, so that is
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be the Toronto Blue Jays of Seattle Mariners, Milwaukee Brewers,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: and Philadelphia Phillies, you know. So, I mean it doesn't
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: even really matter what honestly in baseball, like you see,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: wild cards basically make a run to the World Series
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: like a lot with his structure, So it doesn't even
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: really matter that much. Teams win on the road a
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: lot in baseball too. Detroit fell apart. Yeah, I wouldn't
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: have been betting that much on Detroit. I don't think
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I when's the last time I gave out a Detroit
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: money line bet on my show?
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Mets have a ton of money as well,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: because baseball isn't salary capped, right, so you have like
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: the Yankees the Mets. These teams pay a ton of
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: money and they're still basically fucked.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Anyway.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Let's let's dive into this, man, So you know how
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I do this, right, So I take a look at
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: like who the public are picking here, and I want
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to like fade that sentiment and go against the grain,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: right and look at Actually I didn't bring up my
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: odds converter.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Yet, let me do that too. Hang on, Yeah, that
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: all right? The odds converter here, just to have this
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: up and what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: So this is just I'm not gonna convert it to
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: like the actual percentage, but the implied probability will be
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: close enough.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: So this is.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: ESPN doesn't do the like who picked whom anymore for
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: each round like they used to do. It was very
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: helpful in the NCAA basketball bracket. I don't know why
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: they don't do that, but you can get a gauge
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: of like what the public is doing here. Public basically
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: is going Phillies over Mariners in the World Series, which
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: seems kind of crazy to me because, well, the Phillies,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: we know, they don't have Zach Wheeler anymore, although they've
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: been playing really well anyway, but he's like their best
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher and he's done, and we do have the.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Mariners, I mean, just historically.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: It's kind of weird because I think the Mariners are
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the only team left in baseball that has never been
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: to a World Series at all. I'm pretty sure, And
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I think there are a couple of teams in here
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: that I think have never won a World Series, and
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: the Mariners obviously are one of them, but I think
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: there might be a couple other ones too, because DraftKings
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: actually has a prop on that a first time winner.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: The yes on a team winning their first World Series
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: is plus two five.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: So it's not just Seattle. It must be Seattle.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: And I don't know which other teams have never won
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: one before Milwaukee. Maybe I'm not sure there might be
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: a couple other teams in there too.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'd have to look that up, but.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Don't want to really take it take history into account
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: that much, I don't think. And then if we look
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: at what are the percentages here? Okay, the Phillies are
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: the most picked champion here at twenty one point three percent.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: We look at the odds.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: The Phillies are the odds on favorite to win, but
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: they're only plus four to twenty five, so they're four
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: point two five to one, So even without Zach Wheeler though,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: that's kind of crazy, the Phillies are the They have
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: the best odds to win the whole thing. And even
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: though the Brewers and the number one seed in the
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: National League, they're only at eight to one, so pretty interesting.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: They're's same with the Blue Jays eight to one, even
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: though they're the one seed in the American League. So
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: the yeah, I mean, the seeds don't matter that much.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Like I said, man, it's kind of crazy. So the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Phillies have the best odds at Seattle actually have the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: second best odds, and those are the one and two
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: seeds I guess. Then the Dodgers are actually tied with Seattle.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Then the Yankees are behind that. Seattle and Dodgers both
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the five to one. Yankees at seven to one, Pretty crazy, man,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: and then all these other teams are long shots. My
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox big time long shot at twenty two
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: to one. Don't think we're gonna do that. But anyway, Phillies,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: let's take a look at what that's gonna be. So
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: at plus four twenty five, it's gonna be I was
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: gonna say, it's gonna be close. That's a nineteen percent
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: implied probability. So you don't usually want to take the
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: most pick champion unless there's like a real like unless
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: they're actually seriously being underpicked still, which is usually not
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: the case. All right, so it's not going to be them,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: So we'll look at it's gonna be the Mariners basically,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, you can see here the Mariners are gonna
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: be They're picked thirteen point one percent in these brackets here,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: but they have the second best odds at five hundred
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: to one, same as which is sixteen point seven percent
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: implied probability, same as the Dodgers. So the Dodgers at
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: fifteen percent. Uh So you're getting a little bit of
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: an advantage if you play the Dodgers, but more of
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: one if you take the Mariners. That's pretty crazy, man.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And then the Brewers are being overpicked. I guess at
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: thirteen zero point six percent, the Brewers only at eight
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: to one implied probability of eleven to one. So in
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: my opinion, you do not want to pick the Brewers,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: even though they do play really well on the road.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: The Brewers did get their closer back by the way
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: mcguil he pitched today, so they have a few good.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Pitchers in that bullpen there, Brewers.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, you're got to think about these starting rotations though,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: which kind of like is in my mind here, I'm
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: kind of thinking, like, what are these teams starting rotations
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: look like?
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Here? Like the Phillies have Christopher Sanchez at the top.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Maybe we should do that. Actually, maybe we should just
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: look at the depth chart really quick, because I think
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: it does matter to some extent if we go to
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: the I don't again, I don't want this video to
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: take that long. But I mean, of course, ESPN, this
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: hover thing doesn't even work. So if you look at
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: like the Phillies first, we can see their depth chart here,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: that'll be easy enough to see. We got Sanchez at
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: the top, ron you're Suarez. I don't know why he's
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: got double D titties what's that And I don't know
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: what that's about.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Then Luzardo and Nola, so that's usually teams.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: Go with the four man rotation, So I mean, that's
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: a decent rotation, but it would definitely be a huge
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: one two punch with Wheeler there, So I don't I
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: still don't know if I trust any of those pitchers
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: beside Sanchez, to be honest. Then we got one of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the other teams that were looking at Seattle. I just
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: want to run through these real quick man, and then
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: we know, like Phillies have a good offense as well,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle also pretty solid offense. I mean most of the
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: teams that make the playoffs are gonna be pretty much
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: top ten in offense. Seattle's got Luis Castillo listed as
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: their number one Kirby and then Brian wu is gonna
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: be third in the rotation.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: Even he might be their best pitcher.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Uh, he got a concussion, I think in his last start,
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: so I don't know if he's gonna be back.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: So that is something to keep an eye on here.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: D D means day to day, so I think it's
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: not really a he played light catch today.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: Man, it's not really a problem.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: So D d I mean, I think it means they're
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: gonna play and then they have Logan Gilbert h Yeah,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: So I mean that's that is a pretty good rotation
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: for Seattle. But those guys are all much better at
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: home than on the road. But it is not a
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: bad rotation if we're thinking about taking Seattle. I still
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: think the best starting rotation is the Dodgers. They got
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Yamamoto at the top. Otani is listed as being in
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the in the four man rotation here, and then Glasnow
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and Snell. I mean the fact that those guys both
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: got healthy, Like they almost have like four aces here,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So like the Dodgers are definitely gonna be tough to
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: knock out. Dude, Like I said that, I thought the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Dodgers would be undervalued in the playoffs here even though
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: they are the Dodgers they last year, they carry that
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: name recognition when of course they have one of the
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: top offenses too, and I think I probably would give them.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I think they have the best starting rotation. Man, even
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: though Tani not used to pitching in the playoffs, I
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: don't think it'll playoff rotation.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: But like this is I mean, this is pretty good. Yea,
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: I'm a Moto.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I think at least got some experience last year. I
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: think Glasnow and Snell are really actually the one and two,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: So the fact that they're listed at third and fourth
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: right now is pretty crazy.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: To be honest. What are the other teams that we're
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: looking at? Here?
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: We got the Brewers rotation. I don't know what the
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Brewers are gonna do with their rotation with Peralta, of
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: course is their number one. Kitana's on the IL, so
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's coming back, So then I don't
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: really love it.
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I was thinking that their starting rotation looked like it
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: was gonna be good. But where the fuck is Brandon Woodrooff?
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Is he hurt too? So Woodroof was.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Like he came back and he's actually been really good
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: in the past. He was pitching well this season. If
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: they're missing Woodroof too, I mean this is gonna be
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: This is honestly not a good rotation. Parralta is very good,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: but then Priester, he's been pitching above his pay. Great man,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I know they keep winning his games, but I don't know, man.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: And then you got Chad Patrick and Mizierowski. I know,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Misierowski is really talented, but this is a very inexperienced
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: pitching rotation here.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't love it at all.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I was thinking that Miz like if he came in,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: it was like really like basically Paul's schemes and he
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: was out there just dominating, and then like Woodruff was
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: in the rotation, and maybe Kintana was.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: Like the fourth starter.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I was thinking that was gonna be a pretty good rotation.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: But it's not looking that good right now to me.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: What are the other teams he got? I mean we
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: got the Yankees, of course. I don't think the Yankees
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: rotation is honestly that good. And they got Max Freed
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: at the top. I mean, he's obviously good. Carlos Redone
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: has good numbers, but he's had some bouts where.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: He hasn't really been that good.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Luis heel walks too many people, and Redone kind of
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: has done that as well.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: And then Will Warren.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's particularly great either. So yank they're
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: more of an offensive team for sure. They have one
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: of the top offenses quite obviously, but they're pitching I
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: think maybe a bit of a bit of a concern,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: and surprisingly they're only getting eleven percent of the up
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: picks though here, so they actually there actually might be
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: some value on the Yankees there at at seven to one,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Like what a seven to one? What's the imply probability
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: on that twelve point five percent? So there is actually
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: ridiculously a little bit of value maybe taking the Yankees
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the rest of the teams, I don't think there's a
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: whole lot of value. Plus they're percentage. I mean, their
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: odds are just too low the rest of the team.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: So I don't know that we really care. I don't
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: know if we want to dig into the rest of
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the rotations. But like Padres have Nick Pavetta as their
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: first starter, I can tell you that, and then Michael
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: King just came back.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: They got you.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Darvish, and uh, I don't know who the fuck else
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: do they have. I guess we can look san Diego here,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: mis see real quick? Oh yeah, Dylan Cees. How could
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I forget? He had kind of a down season this year.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: That's starting rotation is not that bad though, but I
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: think on the road it's not going to be that
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: good of a starting rotation. At home, it is, but
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: I think San Diego actually probably has a worse pitching
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: home road dichotomy than.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Than Seattle does Chicago.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: The Cubs might be in trouble because Kate Horton was
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: pitching so well for them, and he's not going to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: be able to pitch right away. He's on the il,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: so he might come back like a series or two
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: into the playoffs if they make it that far, but
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: he's not going to be there right away, so that's
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: a problem.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: So now they're down to I Minaga, who is pretty good.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Matthew Boyd I think was really just kind of I
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: think he's been overworked this season, Matt, so I don't
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: know if you can really trust him. And then Jameson
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: tiem is okay. Colin Ray not really a fan, so
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: I don't love that Cub's rotation really at all. Detroit,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: of course, we know they have school Ball at the top,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: so that is obviously a big deal, but then the.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: Rest of the rotation pretty bad.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty, I mean, at least he has experienced Casey Mize,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: who's just you know, I talk about an overrated he is.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: And then they're basically gonna go bullp end game for
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: like one of the four one of every one of
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: every four games of the playoffs, which I know they're
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: used to doing that, but I don't know how much
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: that can carry Detroit Cleveland. I don't know if we
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: trust their starting rotation that much. Man Tanner Biby is
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: at the top of the rotation. He had a kind
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: of down year though, and then they got Gavin Williams,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: who did have some really good starts but still kind
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: of tricky man him and then Logan Allen I don't
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: think is really that great either. Slay chacone talented young pitcher,
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: but not a whole lot of experience here for these
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland pitchers. Man, and with Biby having the most experience
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: at the top, I mean, maybe he'll pitch well in
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, but I really don't think he could trust
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: that Cleveland rotation very much either. Cincinnati also made the
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: playoffs their rotation. It's interesting they got Hunter Green at
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the top. You know, I think he's excellent, but he
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: doesn't have experience, but I think he is really good.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Andrew Abbat had a really good season, maybe overperformed a
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: little bit.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: Although he is still pretty good.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: But Nicolodolo listed his day to day he really has
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: been struggling though, he has a blister issue, and then
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: he had some other issue too, I think, so I
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: don't know if he's fully healthy. And then for some
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: reason they have Brady Singer listed as their fifth starter
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: and zach le Tel was their fourth. It's actually interesting
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: because they actually have five like reasonably decent starters here,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: so I don't even.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Know what order I would put them in. Man like
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: I would consider.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Going with a five man rotation with Cincinnati and Terry
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: Franccona their manager, by the way, We'll see how he
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: manages this.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: It's interesting. I think Cincinnati actually probably has.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: The deepest pitching rotation here, but I don't know that
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: it's necessarily terrific.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: But looking at this, I'm like, oh, yeah, that's not
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: that bad.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Terry Francona, though, shout out to him my favorite Red
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Sox manager, which I mean, of course, he won a
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: couple of World Series with them, and it was during
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: my lifetime, so of course I'm gonna say that.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: But and then that was the rest of the team,
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: so there we go, all right. But anyway, I think
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be Seattle man at five to one.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're yeah, almost the favorite to win, and
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: They're only being picked out of the fourth most out
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: of all these teams, even though they're behind all the
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: NL teams, So people are picking them to win the AL.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if they're being overvalued in that capacity,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: but I think as far as winning the whole thing,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: people are not really doing it.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: So I'm actually gonna do it.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, if it happens, it would be ridiculous.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with the Mariners to win the
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: whole thing. And then as far as winning the NL,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if we have odds on
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: winning the NL.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: Do we?
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Let me see we have these are the champion odds. Here,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know, what do you have for Let's go
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: to MLB.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Game lines.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, I want future. Well this is yeah,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: it's just World Series only here. Yeah, that's all we have,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: just the World Series. And then there are specials first
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: time winner, oh, winning the division, winning the league. Okay,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: there it is wait what oh, the winning league of
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: the World Series. I'm like, wait what? And then the
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: winning division of the World Series.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: I get it.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so whatever, yeah, which league is gonna win
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: the World Series? The National League is a slight favorite whatever.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I kind of I wanted to see, like which, Oh
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: here it is the leagues. There it is so Seattle
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: at plus one ninety to win the American League.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: Pretty interesting.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Their blue Jay second at plus two to eighty Yankees
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: plus three fifty. So the teams they get. The Buys
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: do have a little bit of an advantage there according
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: to those odds. And then Phillies at plus two ten.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Phillies are being overpicked though. You know I said I
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: don't love the Brewers here. I think they're being overpicked
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: too in some way. I'm gonna go with the Dodgers
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: to win the National League. I mean, I just think
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: their starter rotation is just very good. They do have
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: the experience there. They're gonna come out of the wildcard
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: to do it, though, so they have to get through
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the through the Phillies to do it. But that's what
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. I think it should be not much
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: of a sweat to beat the Reds. I'll look at
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: the series price here. Let me see, where are the
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: series wildcard round These are the only odds we have.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: We had the Yankees at minus one sixty five against
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox Dodgers minus two forty five over the Reds, Tigers,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: and Indians at minus one ten both teams and Cubs
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: slight favorite plus one twenty five. Excuse me, minus one
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: twenty five. All right, So got to just pick the
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: rest of those series. Now, that's basically gonna be it well,
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: and then it's gonna be which is uh so we
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: already have, Yeah, we need the other teams that make
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: it to the AL and NLCS.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Though, So I guess which teams are those gonna be?
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Ah man, hold on so well, Actually, we can look
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: at the bracket here, just like how often are these
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: teams being picked to get there? So basically everybody has Mariners,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays, everybody has Phillies and Brewers. Of course, I
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: knocked the Phillies out, and I have the Dodgers there.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: I'm considering bouncing the Brewers too, though, I want to
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: see what the rest of the odds are there, and
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: then I'm also considering bouncing the Blue Jays. To be honest,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know if either of those teams are gonna
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: get there. Going a little bit against the grain, if
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: I do that, it could be chaos, man.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: It's I mean, it's it's baseball. You know how it is.
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: Let me see. Uh what did I what was it? Dude?
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: Everything is like all so all over the place. Oh yeah,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: leagues is what I wanted. Yeah, that'll just tell me
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit about it. So Blue Jays have the
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: second bets odds. If we're gonna bounce them, we probably
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: have to go with the Yankees to get there, which sucks.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: And I know the Red Sox did well against the Yankees,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: there are nine to four against them this year, but
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: they have Max Freed going up against Garrett Crochet in
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the first game. So if it was Crochet against anybody else,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox would have a like almost no, I
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: don't want to say a guaranteed win, but it would
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: be pretty difficult for the Yankees to win that game.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: But with Freed against him, I still think the Red
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: Sox have a slight edge in that game, but it's
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: very close. So I'm still gonna go with the Yankees
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: to get there. Man, it sucks, but that's what I'm
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: gonna do. And then let's see. Oh yeah, in the
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: National League, Brewers, let's see, I'm not loving it, not
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: loving it. Let's see what else the Brewers seem like
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: they're being overpicked a bit. But if we go with
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: somebody else in that bracket, it has to be San
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Diego or the Cubs there, oh god, oh, man, san
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Diego on the road against the Cubs, Cubs will only
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: being picked fifty one percent of the time, So they're
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: being picked. Actually they're being short changed slightly in that series.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: But man, without Kate Horton in that series San Diego,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know both teams. I think I
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of experience with the Cubs there
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: last year. I don't remember were they Man, it's a difficult,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: difficult call there in that one. Yeah, I'm gonna go
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: with the pod race to just run through and knock
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the knock the Brewers out.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: Whatever. Oh, let's do it.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: And then uh yeah, and then we finish off with
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: the I only have I only have one series left,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I think, and that's and it's Tigers Cleveland. I'm gonna
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: go with the Tigers. Fuck Cleveland. Fuck that run that
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: they have. Tigers have school ball pitching in Game one,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: so if they win that game, it's gonna be a
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: little bit difficult.
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: The odds are just minus one hundred against minus one
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: hundred there, but and Tigers are on the road, but
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: and they're much better at home.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: But that's the bracket. That's stupid. How many total runs.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Will be scored in the entire postseason? Geez, I mean what.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: I mean?
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Average total is probably what eight or nine? Probably eight,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower in the playoffs.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Maybe eight.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, how many fucking games do we think are
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be played in all these series combined?
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: I don't fucking know. H I don't know. I'll fill that.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: I'll figure that out later. Yeah.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: My pick to win is the Seattle Mariners. There you go, man,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Mariners over Dodgers. It's gonna get ridiculous, It's gonna get chaotic.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: That is baseball. I mean, that's that's the way that
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: it is. You think the Cubs are gonna beat San Diego?
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I don't know. That one is
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: really tough for me to gauge. I think the winner
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: of that series will bounce the Brewers, though I I
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: don't love the Brewers here, so I don't know.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: We're gonna see what happens with that.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: San Diego with Michael King back in the rotation, though
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: San Diego was in the mix last year Cubs. I
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: don't remember what the Cubs have done last Cup the Cubs,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Man. To me there, I don't love that starting rotation.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Man, I could see some more flaws with the Cubs
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: starting rotation, although I think the Dodgers still have the
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: least flawed starting rotation. I'm going to the Mariners. Don't
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: have much experience here, but that's what I'm gonna go with.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: That's that's it, man. It'll be a half hour video
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: really pretty much stupid, but that's that's how I'm gonna
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: do it. I'm just going against what people think, basically.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: But I wish we kind of had the sort of
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: more of the like who picked whom into each round,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: just so I could really figure out, like what the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: odds were for each one.
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: Plaques A toade Baris.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: I hope I'm not shooting myself in the foot here, man, that's.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Gonna do it.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: I gotta get some sleep. I'll be back in the morning,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: but there's not much going on tomorrow. I don't think
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: as far as sports, it's gonna be Monday night football
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: that we're gonna talk about in the morning, and that
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: might literally be it. So we finally get some short
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: videos for a little while. We get a little bit
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: of a lull early in the week until NBA and
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: NHL starts.
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: So that's gonna do it. Thanks guys.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: The picks today, I'm gonna rant about it tomorrow because
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I have time to do it in the morning tomorrow.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: It wasn't good. It was not good, to be honest.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, my picks were good, but like had so
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: many bullshit losers today. I almost had a losing day.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: It was a winning day and it started off just
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: like it looked like I was gonna sweep the entire
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: board the way that it started off, and then everything
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: became bullshit, and I'm gonna I'm gonna rant about it tomorrow.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Thank you, sir. I think you guys are biased, but
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Thank you.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be back in the morning. You'll be a
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: short video this time, and that'll do it for now.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Peace, guys. Thanks