Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Banks Final Warning to Big Clients + Stock Market News 30 October 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Final Warning to Big Clients + Stock Market News 30 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Well, sort of not from a desk, but from slightly outside you might hear some crickets and that kind of thing, why?
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm moving and my house is still upside down, but I didn't want to leave you hanging here for a second day running, and there are some big things that just happened and are about to happen and I think it's very important that you understand them.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: So you're the best informed investor out there, which is always my ambition.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: So you're the best informed investor out there, which is always my ambition.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: First thing is a bit of macro jobs data.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We talk about PayPal and SoFi, we talk about the big moves and everything else that really matters.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So let me run you through it in a sort of orderly way, and I'll try to put the charts on the screen for you as well, so you can see exactly what I'm looking at.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: So, number one the number of job openings just plummeted from 8 million to 7.4 million.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: That's a big, freaking drop and takes us back to lows we haven't seen since 2021.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I'll pop the chart on the screen here for you.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: That's pretty staggering stuff.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Well, surprising, not really, because I've said for like two years that the job's data is fabricated yeah, made up.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: It's just complete hogwash, and we're starting to see that show up in the data because, well, at some point you get caught by it, basically right.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Second thing is which is a little bit worse than the job openings, is well, they've also revised down the previous month's job openings and if you look at this chart here, the red candles show you the months where they've subsequently revised them downwards.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: So it might well be that this month isn't just terrible, but it's horrible because they're likely to revise it down even further.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Why do they do that?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Nobody reads revisions.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: They're dry, they're boring and therefore people don't notice.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: If you add to that item number three, which is how many people quit their job, it's down back to what is it?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: 20-20 levels.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: You don't quit your job if you think it's hard to get a new one.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: So it's actually a very, very good indicator that is much, much harder to manipulate than the actual jobs data and job opening data and so on, because you know how the job openings data is created.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: They send out a survey to every company out there.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: About 30% of businesses return it and then they make up the other 70%.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So they've got lots of license there to be creative, and they definitely do so.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: It's sort of saying to me the economy is definitely slowing, and is that a bad thing?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: No, I still think we might get the soft landing miracle, because whoever gets into the White House at the moment Wall Street's very much betting on Trump is going to unleash a lot more spending and therefore I think they get us out of this hole that we would otherwise fall into Without the US government intervention.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: We would be in a recession by now.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So what about our favorite stocks?
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: Then SoFi what the heck happened there?
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Right Stock drops like 10% or something like that.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what happened.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: The market is wrong and I'm right.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: It's nice to be right, isn't it?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: At least to think you're right?
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Is it a sign of delusion that you're going against everybody else?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Look, it was the best quarter yet for SoFi.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Tremendous data.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: They added how many members, I can't remember, but they ended up with 9.3 million members, which is extraordinary.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: 34% up products up 30% and but the fintech segment absolutely knocking it out of the park Profitable for the fourth quarter in a row, which means they could be included in I don't know, iwm or some sort of mid-cap sector.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: They're becoming mainstream, acceptable.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: That means pension funds might start buying it and that sort of thing.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So why does the stock drop?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: It's just traders, it's just the market in the short term is a little bit mad, but I think the fundamentals just improved.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Drop it's just traders, it's just the market in the short term is a little bit mad, but I think the fundamentals just improved, so I'm very much liking it.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Paypal um earnings, where I'd say b plus, maybe b, maybe even b minus, depending on how you look at it.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I thought they could be a little bit better.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: They went amazing, but if you think about they were also not terrible.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: They were still pretty decent.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: You think about all the things they've just kicked off in the last couple of weeks.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: There's a Venmo campaign, the new debit card, which got 1 million plus new enrollments, by the way, since they launched in September, which is extraordinary, and they're using them as well.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: The Pay Everywhere.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: They've launched Fastlane.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: They've launched PPCP.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: They launched Ad Platform.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: They launched.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of stuff out there that's not showing up in the data, not showing up in the data and, from that point of view, I think there are some basically startups within so far.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Uh sorry, paypal right, you know much like amazon is a bunch of it's a big established business and a bunch of startups, like tesla is a big established business and a bunch of startups, and so on.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I see paypal in in that kind of league, not as innovative, but they don't need to be.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: They just need to basically play the advertising long game, the Google meta Amazon ads game and they will double revenue purely from that.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: That's my view on it, so I think nothing that upset me in there.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Particularly Google, however, came out and this is our item number six here with really pretty decent numbers.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: All the big tech stocks were up pre-market as I was recording.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: This Revenue has gone from $8.4 billion to $11.3 billion, which is pretty staggering just from the cloud business beating estimates.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: And really what we wanted to know about was AI right, what's happening there and sandra says so.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: He says as a quote in search, our new ai features are expanding what people can search for and how they search for it.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: In cloud, our ice ai solutions are helping drive deeper product adoption with existing customers, attract new customers and win larger deals, and youtube's total ads and subscription revenues surpassed 50 billion over the past four quarters for the first time, which is pretty extraordinary.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: So I think they're doing a lot right.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Um, yeah, they are spending a lot of money on AI.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Uh, it's revenue in in cloud is up 32%, which is really quite something.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: And, and yeah, they were still well behind Amazon and Microsoft, but this might just help them catch up.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So I think that's pretty, pretty impressive.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: And, um, so, if you look at the Google chart stock chart right, we'll try to put it on the screen here for you there was a breakout just before the data came out, right the day before.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So yesterday they reported after market closed, the stock broke out.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by breakouts?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Well, I made a masterclass for you on that.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: It's 30 minutes long and you'll actually learn how to spot those breakouts before.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Well, I made a masterclass for you on that.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: It's 30 minutes long and you'll actually learn how to spot those breakouts before they happen.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: And then you know now the stock's up to the moon massive gap up today pre-market.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: And how does that happen?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Well, somebody always knows something.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: There's always a rumor out there and you can see it in the stock chat.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: You don't need to know the rumor, you just need to watch the stock chat.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: That's what we do and that's what I teach you.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: And you want to learn more about that?
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Then, as I say, watch the free masterclass at felix friends at org slash, get free and you will learn what those breakouts look like.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: There are very simple rules to those.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Anybody can spot them.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Anybody can learn that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Did I invent those rules?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: They've been around in some form or other since the 70s.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Um, I was taught a lot of this by my former boss at an investment bank, not because he wanted me to be, you know, brighter, smarter, that sort of thing, but because he wanted me to spot good trades so that the team would make more money, so his bonus would be bigger.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Right, very, very simple, and most people don't understand this.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So watch that seriously.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: After this video, you will never look at a stock chart quite quite the same way again.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It's.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: It's mind-blowing how often you can spot these big breakouts before they happen.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: And then we can act on it, and we, of course, do do that and there's some mozzies trying to bite me here.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Um, any any bad news today?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Well, just a little.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Um, computers are selling a little, not a lot.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Again, I'll try to put this chart here on the screen for you.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: If we sort of get a flat market they're selling about of the s&p 228 million, not a lot 680 million if we go up down, they're still selling 5 billion.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I you know I doubt that we go down, but take one of the big tech companies to really really report horrible numbers.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: At the moment that doesn't look like that.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, a bit of selling there, but nothing particularly terrible.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: One thing I spotted this morning was TradeVisionio, which is a platform we build to give you access to the same quality data that Wall Street has.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: It triggered a buy on Meta yesterday, which I thought was rather interesting, and I'll try to put the chart on the screen here for you.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, you get those breakout news items if you obviously use Trade Vision as a week's trial for it, and since beginning of 2022, our trades on Meta are up 176%.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Buy and hold would have gotten you about 50 or 40 odd percent, so we're beating that very comfortably.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: So it's an interesting breakout there on that.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: There are also breakouts on Crowd.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: There are breakouts on the QQQ, so do check that out.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: It could be quite a useful thing to get your paws on at tradevisionio.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: So there we have it.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Any other thoughts?
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Get more help when you're moving.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I made a bit of a silly mistake really.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I had a guy who quoted me a fairly tremendous amount to move and they were going to pack all the sort of little things and unpack them.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: And I thought that quote was silly.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: And then he came back and doubled it and I thought, well, now that's really silly.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So I went for a slightly cheaper mover.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: He still obviously packed all the big things, furniture and brought it all around, and I'm very fortunate to have staff who do a lot of the unpacking and that kind of thing.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: But oh boy, was that a mistake, because I'm sort of a little out of action for two days and I just think I probably could have spotted one or two extra trades.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I would have five times paid for the difference in removers.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: So sometimes I think we don't value our time enough.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: We think, oh, we just do some hard work and I've unpacked and opened a lot of boxes, which is not really a hugely useful spend of my time if I'm honest about it.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: So yeah, definitely a bit of a lesson there value, value yourself more and get other people to do the heavy lifting for you, and that's really what life's all about.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Watch the masterclass and you will get tremendous value out of that.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Thousands of people have watched it, which I absolutely love, although, if you think about it, we get about 70,000 people watch this channel a day, which is extraordinarily staggering, and I still can't believe it.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: And then if I think, what a couple of hundred who watch the Masterclass?
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: And I think there's a disconnect between people who watch more of the entertaining stuff and the sort big claim stuff, exciting stuff.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: But if you say, okay, now you know everything you ever wanted to know about SoFi or something, but why don't you learn something fundamental that will actually bring you value for the rest of your life and make you wealthier for the rest of your life?
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: And then people go.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I don't really have time for that right now.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go and watch a video of you know kittens playing or something, and I think if you can pull yourself away from that mindset to I'm only going to do the things that are going to get me and move me towards my goal, then I think you will do 10 times better.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: But of course, you have to have a goal first and most people don't.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: So if there's only one piece of advice for me is spend half an hour, sit down, write out what your actual goal is and don't make it someone else's goal.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Be honest with yourself about it, and there have to be no limits on this.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: By the way, you could be whatever you want.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: You know literally no limits, because don't place any limits on those goals.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Just make it whatever you want it to be.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Society and family and people around you place enough limits on yourself.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So don't let them on your goals, because you can literally be and do whatever you want to be.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: So watch that masterclass, because that'll actually probably put you into the 1% of people in terms of knowledge.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: If you implement it, you'll be the 0.1% of people trading and investing, and it works for investors as well as for traders.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So go to felixfrontsorg, get free and get free, my friend, and I hope to see you live tomorrow, provided I can find uh, you know all the bits I need for it.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: I wish you all the best.