Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 32 - 4/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 32 - 4/29/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 32 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
0:33
Everyone? Happy Monday?
0:35
It's been a while, guys. Hope everyone had a great
0:37
weekend, and boy, did I have a good weekend.
0:39
I might have had too good of a weekend because I, as I alluded
0:43
to during last week, tail end of the pod.
0:45
Last week I spent the weekend at my buddy's bachelor party.
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So we rented a cabin up in Campton, NH, which is about, I
0:54
don't know, about two hours north of Boston.
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And I was nine of us, All my buddies that we grew up with,
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couple friends we made in college.
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We all made the journey to Campton, NH for my Buddy Fed's
1:03
bachelor party. And it was a great time.
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We were grilling, We were playing cornhole.
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We were playing Beirut tournaments.
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Yes, it's Beirut. It's not, it's not beer pong.
1:11
Beer pong is with paddles. Beirut is without paddles.
1:14
But anyway, I had a great time. We're betting on sports.
1:17
Drinking, grilling, chilling, thrilling.
1:19
It was a great weekend and I'm a little banged up today.
1:21
And I tell you what, I'm almost 37 years old.
1:24
I actually turned 37 in a couple days, believe it or not, on
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Wednesday, May 1st is my birthday.
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So I tell you what, when you get a little bit older, the
1:31
hangovers, they they end up lasting a couple days instead
1:33
of, you know, taking a Gatorade and some Advil and you're and
1:36
you're good the next day. But either way, I had a great
1:38
weekend and was so happy to get away with the team.
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And I I never do this, but I was betting with my buddies and they
1:44
said, you know what, Bruin, Celtics Saturday night, let's
1:46
put in a parlay. I said screw it.
1:48
I don't bet parlays their hand out to the house.
1:51
But when? When at the bachelor party with
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your boys, everyone, half Bruins jerseys, half Celtics jerseys,
1:57
we did put a parlay. Everyone there got down and even
2:00
guys who don't really bet too many sports.
2:01
We said hey for fed for the bachelor party.
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Let's see if it comes through. And it did.
2:05
The Bruins were the huge win. Celtics were the big win as
2:08
well. So hope you had a great weekend.
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I know I did. I want to apologize a little bit
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because I did plan on doing a pod on Friday, but it's kind of
2:16
a hectic time for me because my parents were here to visit for
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my dad's birthday, his 73rd birthday.
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So had a great time with them, but then hung out with them and
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had to hit the road and get up to New Hampshire.
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So I could have been, you know, a little late to the New
2:28
Hampshire arrival on Friday. But I don't know if you guys
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have this, but do you have friends who, like, always blow
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you up and text and give you crap when you're late?
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I'm like, man, I I gotta, I gotta get up there.
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I can't have them keep blowing up my phone.
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So either way, I didn't have a pod on Friday.
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But I appreciated all of your DMS. Your tweets checking in on
2:45
me. Yes, I'm still alive, but no pod
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on Friday. So let's see if we can start off
2:49
the week on a hot note here on episode 32 on a big Monday.
2:53
Now looking toward today guys, I got I have a six pack of sweats
2:55
for you. Another big day in baseball.
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I know today's a little bit smaller than usual slate.
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There's only 12 games overall but I actually got a couple
3:02
plays here on a couple dogs. Let's see if a couple dogs can
3:05
bark. Got a really sharp contrarian
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favorite. So 3 bets in MLBI.
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Have a bet for you in the NHLA team that is down in the series
3:12
that I like to even it up here tonight at a pretty short money
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line price. And then got some NBA, There's a
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triple headed site in the NBA and we have a couple games here
3:20
in terms of the total with a really good rhythm edge and may
3:23
not be in the direction you expect.
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So couple bets here for totals in the NBA.
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So six pack overall. Now want to mention one thing
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because we put a lot of time and effort into our NFL draft
3:34
betting and we ended up eking out a profit.
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Now it wasn't quite as profitable as I'd hoped, but I'm
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looking at my card. I'm looking at my sports book
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and we ended up placing 14 bets on the NFL draft and then up
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going 7:00 and 7:00. But because some plus money led
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by a great hedge there on JC Latham, second overall offensive
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lineman at plus 250, we eked out a profit 7 and 7 + 0.3 units.
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So again, our hard work didn't make us $1,000,000 in 20 units,
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but we eked out a profit. The winners were 123 exacta so
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Caleb Williams Daniels in May at -145.
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Pennix under 32 1/2. Brooks first running back
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selected at plus 110. Quinon Mitchell, first
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cornerback at -140. Mims under 22 1/2.
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Knicks under 32. 1/2 tip of the cap to Michael Lombardi who got
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that one right. I couldn't believe Knicks went
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12th overall as well as Pennix junior.
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Everyone said what a crazy pick that was for Atlanta 'cause they
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just signed obviously Kirk Cousins to a big deal.
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I thought that was a smart move. Why not?
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Why not get another, you know, high draft pick and have him to
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be ready to take over if and when you know you get retirement
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or an injury for Cousins. So I actually like that pick for
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the Falcons. But anyway, JCJC Latham at plus
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250 was our biggest hit second overall or second lineman
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selected. Now losers were Turner, first
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defensive edge player selected, it was Latu instead of Turner.
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Fuaga, second offensive lineman. We did protect protect ourselves
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with Latham. Bowers was annoying Brock Bowers
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under 12 1/2 'cause he went 13th.
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It's like, come on, you know he could have gone one through 12
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and there was sharp money. We beat the closing line but he
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went 13th, which was annoying. Byron Murphy, the stud D tackle
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from Texas under 14 1/2. He went 16th, so couldn't get
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that one. Quinn Yon Mitchell under 15 1/2,
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junior Coulson, first linebacker plus 125 and then Arnold in
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going ahead of verse at -160. That was a loser too.
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But bet Tris versus bet to win. Couple good juicy payouts there.
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With some plus money we were able to eke out a profit betting
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the NFL draft. So I will take it 7 and 7 + 0.3
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units. I felt like we wanted more in
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terms of payout, but again, I'll never complain about anything
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that is in the green. So we were able to make a little
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money off the NFL draft, which was great.
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Now back to our wheelhouse, which is of course breaking down
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games from a sharp data-driven perspective, acting like we're
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we're on Wall Street where the Wall Street traders looking at
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the stock market trying to read the market make smart bets where
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we ideally can be against the public and with the sharps that
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is always the goal. So I want to start off with some
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Major League Baseball because there's a few games here today
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that caught my eye, Three in particular, and I'm hoping we
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can get two out of three and eke out winning night here in MLB.
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So first one on the board looking toward Yankees and the
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Baltimore Orioles now match up here between 2 American League
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East juggernauts here The Yankees are 19 and 10.
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They just took two or three against the Brewers.
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Had a big win on Sunday, 1:15 to 5:00 as a -, 135 Rd. favorite.
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You know the Orioles 17 and 10, but they did just drop two or
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three against the Athletics and I mentioned the Athletics win
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total over 57 1/2. Might have been before we
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started doing this pod. It was a hit that I did for
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veeson.com where they are projecting I think in wins in
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the 60s. Don't look now, but the Oakland
6:46
A's are a competitive team. So again, maybe the the Fan
6:49
Graphs market got that one right.
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I know it's still early, but anyway, I can't believe it took
6:54
two or three from Baltimore after I believe.
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What do they take two or three from the Yankees or they're
6:58
pretty competitive. Anyway, not here to talk about
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the Oakland A's before tonight's opener.
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We have New York going with Rady Clark Schmidt, who's two and O
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with a 3.55 ERA. Meanwhile, Baltimore is going
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with fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez, who's three and one
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with a 4.45 ERA. So what do we see across the
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market here? Well, looks like some smart
7:17
money going toward the Yankees. That's where I'm going, guys.
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Give me the Yankees. Even though I'm a Red Sox fan.
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I'm going Yankees with some plus money here.
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Now Baltimore opened around a -, 135 home favorite, and the OS
7:28
are now down to around -125, -, 120.
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At one point earlier this morning, I want to say they got
7:33
down to like -115. So this line is really from the
7:36
opener moved away from Baltimore and toward the Yankees.
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Now that's important because the Yankees, they're getting a
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slight majority of bets, around 60% of bets, but 65% of dollars,
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which coincides with this move toward New York.
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Now New York at the outset, you know, they're getting around
7:52
plus 120 + 115. Now you're a bunch of shops
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looking down closer toward like plus 110.
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So this line continues to move in favor of New York, which is a
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good sign tells us the bigger sharper wagers are on the
8:02
Yankees. Now if you look at aside from
8:04
this big steam move on New York, they'd have a couple things I
8:07
look for. One would be a divisional dog.
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So within the division, two teams from the same division
8:12
play each other. Typically you see those
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divisional dogs do better than non divisional dogs and the
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whole reason for that is the built in familiarity.
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Now it's not quite as it used to be when what it was a division,
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teams play each other 19 or 18 * a year.
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I think it's a little bit less now, but still that familiarity
8:28
playing teams in your division much more than teams outside
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your division. It levels the playing field.
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You know your opponent better. You know the opposing pitchers,
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you've seen them more, you know the stadium and the quirks.
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So basically that familiarity levels the playing field and
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really leads to dogs barking louder in the division versus
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outside the division. So I'll be a little bit of a
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check here in favor of the Yankees.
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Now, the Yankees also be a classic dog high total.
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So we always mention if we're on a favorite, we want a low total.
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Remember the line of demarcation in baseball?
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High, low total or an average total?
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It's usually around 8 1/2. So anything you know above 8
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1/2, nine or higher would be a high total.
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Anything 8 or less will be a low total.
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Now this one is a 8 1/2 total up.
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That's been bet up to 9. I'm going to get that in a
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second because the Orioles are really good over team this
9:12
season. But if you stick with just the
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Yankees divisional dog, high total lines moving in their
9:16
favor. If I'm a dog with a total of
9:18
nine, why is that a good thing? Because more expected run
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scored, more variance, more upset opportunities.
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That's a benefit to the dog. So you have dog hide total.
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You have divisional dog. You have line move toward the
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Yankees. Yankees also have the better
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bullpen, 2.7 OERA versus 4 point O2.
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And I believe Baltimore, I want to say put Kimbrel.
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I thought I saw Kimbrel on the DL here, who's been off to a
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good year. But also in terms of the total,
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if you like the over, I'm not going to argue with you.
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One thing I would say is you missed kind of the good number.
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It opened 8 1/2. Now it's been up to 9, but I'm
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looking at these nines and a lot of these nines are 9 over -115.
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So maybe some further liability toward this over.
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Now it's going to be a nice night.
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Camden Yards, mid 70s, low 80s, winds blowing out a little bit
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to left around 5 to 10 mph. But what I mentioned before was
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the Orioles being an over team. They are 16, nine and two to the
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over this year, 64%. That's the second best over team
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in baseball. And you know who's the best over
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team in baseball? I wouldn't have guessed it.
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It's the Milwaukee Brewers. But yeah, it all up guys.
10:19
We got a little bit of line move toward the Yankees.
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I'm going to take the plus money on a divisional dog high total
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with some line movement. I'm on New York shop round.
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I got the Yankees at around plus 110.
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Keep on cruising another dog bet for you, including a big move
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toward a road dog. Another divisional match up.
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I'm talking Washington and Miami now.
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Don't look now, but the Nationals, they're playing
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pretty well. This is the 4th and final game
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of a four-game series. The Nats are 13 and 14, only a
10:46
game below 500 but they've won the first three games of this
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series. They're three and O so far this
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series, so conventionalism is probably, hey, Miami's got to
10:53
win. They're not going to get swept.
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It's hard to sweep a four-game series, but actually the lion's
10:58
going toward Washington in this one.
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Now, if you look at the pitching matchup, first, we have righty
11:03
Jake Irvin going for Washington. He's one and two of the 3.55
11:07
ERA. He'll be opposed by Trevor
11:09
Rogers, who's O and three with a 4.1 OERA.
11:12
By the way, Marlins 6 and 23. There should be a prop bet on
11:16
who will have the worst year, the Marlins or the White Sox.
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That's probably a, you know, kind of a kind of a coin toss
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there at this point. But anyway, Miami opened as high
11:24
as a -, 150 home favorite. We've seen this line get all the
11:27
way down -150 Miami now to like -125 Miami.
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So that is about a $0.25 steam move away from Miami toward
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Washington. Washington, you know, open
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getting plus 135. Now they are down to plus 115 +
11:43
110. So the line's moving bigly here
11:45
in favor of Washington. Now then, that's a really good
11:50
bet split. They're only getting 59% of
11:52
money line bets, but 75% of money line dollars.
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So it tells us that very, very, very slight public support.
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Maybe, I don't know, as much of A bet on the Nationals as it
12:01
might be just, you know, Publix looks at that 6 and 23 record
12:04
and says Miami's, you know, terrible team laying a minus
12:07
number. I'm going to bet against them.
12:08
Maybe that's the thought process.
12:10
But either way, wise guys have said, hey, let's jump on washing
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here. That's where I want to be. 59%
12:15
bet, 75% money, pretty good. Low bets, higher dollars, bet
12:18
split. Now Washington would have that
12:20
divisional dog value built in. Familiarity benefiting the
12:23
better team getting plus money. Or actually the the familiarity
12:27
leveling the playing field benefiting the team getting plus
12:29
money, I should say. But also the Nats, they're
12:31
better with their offense. They're hitting 238 versus 224
12:36
for Miami, and the better bullpen, 3.79 versus 5.1 O and
12:40
Washington is 9 and six on the road.
12:42
That kind of surprised me. Miami get a load of this.
12:45
They're 2 and 14 at home and the Nats are 12 and 14.
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As a dog may not seem great 46%, but it's actually a 22% ROI
12:53
because of the plus 20 payouts. The Marlins.
12:56
Guess what the Marlins are as a favorite this year.
12:58
Oh, and nine. Let's make that.
13:00
Oh and 10:00. I'm going to follow this line
13:02
move guys. I'm going Washington divisional
13:04
dog. Good sharp line move in their
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favor. Good bet.
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Split. I am on the Nationals shop
13:09
round. I got the Nats at around plus
13:11
1/15. Keep on cruising last by the
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night. This is one of my favorite
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systems. It is a fade of the team who
13:18
just played on Sunday Night Baseball, so it will be a play
13:20
on the Mets and against the Cubbies now setting the stage
13:24
here 7:10 PM Eastern Time tonight we have the Cubs 17 and
13:28
11. They did just drop two or three
13:29
against my Red Sox, who had a good lead and then blew it and
13:32
then came back and won on a little bloop to left that Dansby
13:36
Swanson couldn't reel in. I kind of thought maybe he
13:38
should have had that one, but maybe Duran would have scored
13:40
anyway, although he didn't really tag up, which kind of got
13:43
lucky with anyway. Cubbies losing two or three to
13:47
the Red Sox. The Mets, meanwhile, just lost
13:49
two or three against the Cardinals.
13:50
They did win the series finale yesterday, though, 4 to 2 and 11
13:54
innings. The cash as a -, 140 home
13:56
favorite. So for tonight's series opener,
13:59
the Cubbies are going with Rady Jameson.
14:01
Tyon. Remember him from the Pirates
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back in the day two and O 1.69 ERA, so he's been pretty good
14:06
here to start. Meanwhile, the Mets are going
14:08
with the former Yankee Luis Severino who they picked up in
14:11
the offseason. He's two and two with a 2.67
14:15
ERA, so a couple good pictures here going, which is why we see
14:17
a really low total of 7 1/2 that's actually juiced under and
14:20
may even get down to seven. But anyway, the public is saying
14:24
this. First off, this line opened
14:26
around -125 Mets around plus 110 + 115 with the Cubbies, and the
14:32
public says hey, Chicago's got the better record and they're
14:35
getting plus money. Take the Cubs, you know.
14:37
Hey, easy bet here. Take Chicago.
14:39
However, even though around 60% of bets are going Cubs, this
14:42
line actually has moved further toward the Mets.
14:45
The Mets opening -125, they're as high as -140 -, 150 at some
14:50
shops. So take a step back.
14:52
If nearly 2/3 of bets are on the the Cubbies wise line, then
14:56
going toward the Mets, there's a classic reverse line move.
15:00
That's when the betting line goes away from the popular side
15:03
toward the unpopular side in terms of bet percentages here.
15:06
So lines going toward the Mets, even though they're only getting
15:08
around 40% of bets tells us smart money is on the Mets here.
15:12
Now they would have value as a non division favorite and
15:15
correlative betting value as a favorite low total.
15:18
Now total of this one was 8, it's down to 7 1/2 and again the
15:21
under 7 1/2 is really juiced up -120 like it may get down to
15:24
seven and it's a pretty nice night at City field.
15:26
You know low 60s wind is actually blowing out a little
15:29
bit. Maybe this is more bet on, you
15:31
know, two really good pitchers going head to head.
15:34
But that would be a good correlative betting value play
15:36
favorite low total, unlike, you know, Yankees which are dog high
15:39
total. But the system play here would
15:41
be to fade the Chicago Cubs. Now this is a system that I
15:45
learned quite a long time ago when I first got into my first
15:47
job in the industry at Sports Insights.
15:49
And it's basically you fade the team who played on Sunday Night
15:52
Baseball. Because if you look at the way
15:54
the schedule is structured, there's only one Sunday Night
15:56
Baseball game. The rest of the games are day
15:58
games on Sundays. So the Mets played at home and
16:02
had an early game on Sunday and now they're just back at home
16:05
playing in tonight. Whereas the Cubs had a late
16:08
game. Where did that start?
16:08
Seven, 8:00 last night At Fenway.
16:11
They lose. Now they have to travel and go
16:12
play the Mets. That is a rest first tired
16:15
advantage in favor of the Mets and a disadvantage in favor of
16:18
the Cubbies. So hopefully that is a benefit
16:20
here toward the Mets. And again, seen a lot of under
16:23
money come in on this one. Although you know you lost the
16:26
eight, it's down to 7 1/2. I'd still lean under 7 1/2
16:29
because you do have a pretty good bet split here. 49% bets.
16:32
79% money is on the under and the under is 6 and two at Citi
16:37
Field. This year it's 56 and 3462% to
16:41
the under since the start of last year.
16:42
That's the second best under Park in baseball over the last
16:45
two years. Only Oracle Park is better with
16:47
the Giants. But you Add all up, guys.
16:50
Publix, Cubs. But this line keeps going to
16:52
Mets. I'm.
16:53
I'm going to fade a Sunday night baseball team from last night.
16:56
Give me the Mets. Now.
16:57
I got this one a little bit a little bit earlier today.
16:59
Mets around -140. Now they're creeping up as high
17:02
as -150. But we got the Mets, we got the
17:05
Washington Nationals and the New York Yankees.
17:08
Let's get a couple dogs to bark. Let's see if we can get two out
17:10
of three. I'm going Nats, Mets and Yankees
17:13
for tonight. Now over to the NBA, because we
17:17
got a couple edges here in the NBA, which in a great situation,
17:21
in a great kind of overlapping situation, is the fact that the
17:25
market, as well as rhythm, who powers this pod, does a great
17:28
job powering this pod. Both have an edge on or both in
17:32
unison moving in the same direction.
17:33
So what am I getting at? OK, so let's start off with the
17:36
early game Celtics and the Heat. Now Celtics, who gave me a
17:40
little bit of a scare. They won game one but lost game
17:42
two. They're 14 1/2 point dog.
17:44
They lost outright with no Jimmy Butler, but they got back on
17:46
track. Well, I was with the boys up in
17:48
Campton, NH at the bachelor party.
17:50
Celtics ended up rolling to take a 2 to one series lead.
17:54
Now for tonight, Celtics are laying 10 1/2 and the line
17:58
really hasn't moved off of 10 1/2.
18:00
Now that's a little because if you look at the bet splits for
18:03
this game, around 65% of bets are going Celtics.
18:06
So really the line hasn't moved at all.
18:08
If you tell me you like the Heat in the points, I'm not going to
18:10
argue with you. It looks like a little bit of a
18:11
line freeze. But the Celtics are so hard to
18:13
predict they could lose outright.
18:14
They could win by 40. So what I'm going to do is I'm
18:16
going to focus on the total here.
18:18
And one thing that I noticed with this total is that it's
18:20
been ticking up. Now the Celtics Heat total
18:23
actually opened as low as two O 2 two O 2 1/2, and now it's met
18:27
up to two O 3 1/2, some books even touching 2O four.
18:31
Now why is that notable? Well First off you got a pretty
18:34
big bet split to the over 84% bets, 86% of the money is on the
18:39
over. I don't love being on a on over
18:41
where it's like hey it's so low it's got to go over.
18:43
That's a bit of a a public mentality which gives me a
18:45
little bit of heartburn. But I do respect line moves
18:48
because to me line moves throw away the percentages.
18:51
Books are moving numbers based on if it's not an injury or the
18:54
weather then it's because of smart money coming in causing
18:57
the odds makers to adjust the the price.
19:00
So just the fact that that total open 2O2 now it's up to two O 3
19:04
1/2. We have to fully admit that some
19:06
smart money hit this over and caused the Celtics Heat game
19:09
four line to rise. Now I'm going to go over here
19:13
because number one, I respect the market.
19:15
It's moved two O 2 to two O 3 1/2.
19:17
But then I pop open my rhythm app, I grab my iPhone, I go to
19:21
rhythm, I go to game bets and what do I notice?
19:25
One of the top edges tonight in the NBA in terms of game bets is
19:29
the over in this game. So taking the over 203 1/2 with
19:33
Celtic's Heat, why is that important?
19:35
Because Rhythm is projecting 210 as the total here.
19:40
So we are getting a 6 1/2 point edge or distance to market good
19:44
edge between obviously what the current number is versus what
19:47
the Rhythm AI backed model is projecting.
19:50
And if I was like for example, if this total was 205 1/2 and
19:54
it's down to 203 1/2 and Rhythm had a 210, I'd say OK, that's a
19:57
pretty good edge. But man, looks like smart
19:59
money's going under. I don't want to go against that.
20:01
However, in this case, the market's moving up and rhythm
20:04
has a edge to the over. So that's good enough for me.
20:07
I'm going to take a shot in this over guys.
20:09
Celtics Heat over two O 3 1/2. Now one thing you're look,
20:13
you're banking on for this Celtics Heat game is some
20:15
positive regression in terms of shooting because we'll get both
20:18
these teams, Miami in particular.
20:21
Now game one you had let me just pull up the the results for this
20:26
game because in the series. You've averaged 203 points.
20:32
Now that's just the the combination of all three games
20:34
and, you know, taking all three cumulative scores.
20:37
Dividing by three, we've averaged 2O3, but game one it
20:40
was 114 to 94. Celtics game two was 111, one O
20:43
1 Miami. Game three was one O 4 to 84, so
20:46
game three had a total of 188. However, if you dig a little bit
20:51
deeper, Miami only shot 41% from the field in game three.
20:56
And if you look at Miami in terms of three-point shooting,
20:59
they're much lower than they've been historically or at least
21:02
this season. You know, both teams were only
21:04
shot around 30% from three in the last game.
21:07
So what do I mean by positive regression?
21:10
What I mean is that, you know, are they going to shoot 30%
21:13
again from three? Are they going to shoot 41% from
21:15
the field? No, You're thinking that you
21:17
know when you're, when you're shooting, when you're shooting
21:19
great, you're not as good as you think, but when you're shooting
21:20
poorly, you're not as bad as you think.
21:22
So maybe the angle here for the rhythm projection as well as the
21:26
market moving up is the fact that you're banking on positive
21:29
regression, these teams shooting a little bit better, which would
21:32
be the second game here in Miami.
21:33
So hopefully then they go to South Beach and you know, stay
21:36
up late and go, you know, go clubbing here.
21:38
Hopefully everyone's ready to go.
21:39
They don't have the the South Beach flu, but the market is
21:42
moving up and rhythms got an edge here on the total.
21:44
So I'm going over, I'm banking on some scoring here.
21:47
I think you're going to get a desperate spot from the heat.
21:50
Obviously, they're down 2 to one.
21:51
You don't want to go down, go down 3:00 to 1:00 and then have
21:53
to go to Boston. If you're going to have any
21:55
chance in the series, you got to play well tonight.
21:57
So hopefully part of that playing well comes offensively.
22:00
So the lines moving up to O2 to two O 3 1/2 rhythms got a 2:10.
22:04
I'm going over Heat. Celtics over two O 3 1/2.
22:09
Now next game here Thunder and Pelicans, 8:30 PM Eastern Time
22:12
game and right now, OK, C is up three O OK C wins.
22:17
This series is over. Now in terms of the side, we
22:20
have seen this line tick up a little bit toward the Thunder.
22:23
You know Thunder open around -4, been bet up to around -4, 1/2,
22:27
Publix all over the Thunder. They're getting 87% of spread
22:31
bets here. This line actually may end up
22:33
going to going up to five, but just like we just mentioned the
22:36
Celtics Heat total. I noticed something about this
22:38
Thunder Pelicans total almost the same exact thing, just a
22:42
little bit higher. This total open at two O 4 1/2.
22:45
It's now been bet up to two O 7, even some shops at two O 7 1/2.
22:49
So this line is moving up, which is notable because once again
22:53
you look in the series, you know here are the games that we've
22:56
had so far in the series. And I got to admit guys, the
22:59
other part of playing a couple overs here tonight is just some
23:02
regression in general because we have seen so far in this post
23:06
season that Unders have done very, very well.
23:08
But it's kind of starting to regress which hopefully we'll
23:11
see more of that regression. But Unders are 21 and 1558% this
23:17
this post season. But I feel like they started 15
23:20
and five. They're at one point they're 75%
23:22
so maybe you are starting to see a little bit that of that
23:25
regression there. But anyway, this total is ticked
23:27
up OKC Pelicans two O 4 1/2 up to two O 6 1/2, two O 7, even
23:32
two O 7 1/2 out there. So of course shop around if you
23:35
can find an over two O 6 1/2, that's your best angle.
23:37
But I only see one book offering that it's mostly 2O sevens
23:40
across the board but down O3 desperate spot for New Orleans.
23:44
I wish they had Zion, they don't.
23:45
He continues to be out with a hamstring injury, but a couple
23:48
things I like about this total one it's risen so it tells me
23:51
smart money hit the over but #2 is the bet split.
23:55
Currently at DraftKings 81% of bets are going over thunders
23:58
Pelicans but the overs taking in 98% of the money.
24:02
So even though it's a public bet with 81% of bets going over,
24:06
it's not just the public average Joe play bet, the over root for
24:09
points. Looks like wise guys hit this
24:11
over. Move this number and that's
24:13
actually a + + 17% smart money discrepancy.
24:18
So there's 17% more money than there is.
24:21
Bets on this game, so telling us that the bigger sharper wagers
24:24
here seem to be going over. Now the last angle for this over
24:28
is Rhythm, of course. Who we love, who powers this
24:31
pod, who is helping quite a few people get into the player props
24:35
world, which I'm happy to see. But anyway, Rhythm is projecting
24:38
210.9, so almost two 11211 points.
24:43
So Rhythm is projecting 210.9 and we are getting a total
24:47
that's on the rise and a great bet split.
24:49
And also it's a short spread. It's only 4 1/2.
24:51
So you know maybe you get a back and forth game competitive,
24:54
maybe you get overtime, who knows.
24:56
But it's kind of the same thing like if you like the Heat
24:58
Celtics over, it's moving up with a rhythm edge.
25:01
You like the Thunder Pelicans over moving up with an edge.
25:04
So you add it all up here guys. I'm going with the OVA 2 overs
25:07
tonight. Thunder Pelicans over.
25:11
I got over two O 7 now to finish up the pod.
25:14
One last bet for you. You know I can't let you go
25:16
without a hockey play. This is a team that is down 2 to
25:19
one and they're on the road and I like them to even this series.
25:23
Tonight I'm talking Dallas and the Vegas Golden Knights.
25:27
Now what's a little background here for this match up with
25:31
Dallas and and the Vegas Golden Knights.
25:33
We did see surprisingly Vegas Golden Knights get out to a 2O
25:37
series lead. They won both games in Dallas.
25:39
They won the opener four to three.
25:40
They won again 3:00 to 1:00, but Dallas showed you something
25:43
down. O2 going to Vegas, which is one
25:45
of the hardest places to play. That crowd goes nuts in Sin
25:48
City. The Stars eked out a three to
25:51
two win in overtime to win that. And now you look at the line for
25:56
tonight, they're getting a lot of smart money to even up this
25:58
series. This game actually opened run to
26:01
pick them or VGKA very, you know, slight -110 -, 115 home
26:05
favorite. Now we've seen the line
26:07
completely flip to Dallas, -120 -, 125.
26:12
This would be a classic dog to fave or pick them to fave line
26:16
move here and I got to respect that move.
26:18
I've seen a lot of smart money indicators on Dallas flipping
26:21
this line in their favor. Now if you'll get the bets, what
26:25
Which again, take it with a grain of salt with hockey
26:26
because there's not as much public, but I do look at bets
26:29
versus dollars. You know, are you at least
26:30
getting more money than bets? And you actually are here.
26:33
The Dallas Stars are only getting 36% of bets, but 54% of
26:37
the money tells us the bigger sharper wagers here are on
26:40
Dallas. Now I'm going to bank on Dallas.
26:42
Not just a mark trusting the market with this big steam move
26:45
toward Dallas, but also Rd. Teams are three and O the
26:48
series. Dallas is on the road tonight.
26:50
Dallas is a team who was favored at the outset to win the series.
26:54
They have a lot of playoff experience.
26:56
You're in a desperation spot. You can't go down 31.
26:59
Dallas does have the better metrics overall 3.6 goals game
27:02
verse 3.2. Better defense 2.8 allowed
27:05
versus 3. Better power play 24% versus 20%
27:09
and better penalty kill 82% for 79%.
27:12
So I'm going to bank on Dallas here.
27:14
Again, the Stars open this game getting a little bit of plus
27:17
money, you know pick em game or getting you know plus 103 + 104.
27:21
Now they're laying pretty much -125 across the market.
27:25
So that is a big dog to fave or pick em to fave line move in
27:28
favor of the Stars. So I'm going right back to the
27:30
Dallas Stars here. Guys shop around.
27:32
I got Dallas. I got them at -124.
27:37
So how about does it for episode 32 of the All Systems Go Sports
27:41
betting podcast, which is presented by Rhythm Big Six back
27:44
here for tonight, can we get four or more of these bets?
27:47
That is the goal. Just get more.
27:49
Lot more wins and losses, beat the juice and grind out
27:51
hopefully a winning night. But couple things, as I always
27:54
like to mention toward the back end of the pod, because once the
27:56
pod's over, obviously I want to, you know, sweat these games and
28:00
win with you, but also want to give you guys a couple more
28:01
links, Couple things, couple kind of notes to consider so
28:05
that you can help this pod grow. First off, so again, if you're
28:08
new to the pod, if you've been listening from day one or you
28:11
just started recently, #1 thank you.
28:13
It means so much to me that people take the time out of
28:15
their day to get some insights and pull up a chair to the
28:18
virtual bar and talk data-driven betting.
28:21
You'll notice that I'll never give you a a play based on what
28:23
I think or want or hope or yeah, they're going to roll tonight.
28:28
Why? Just 'cause they're good.
28:29
No. What's the market telling us?
28:30
That's all. We want to make smart bets with
28:32
our head and not our heart. But anyway, I need you to help
28:34
me grow this podcast. And there's one thing very
28:37
simple, very easy. It really will not take more
28:39
than three seconds out of your life.
28:41
Can you please go give this podcast a five star review?
28:45
Whether you're on Spotify or iTunes, give it five stars.
28:48
That really helps to rise up the rankings and grow and get more
28:51
exposure to the pod. If you want to follow the pod or
28:54
you know retweet it when I tweeted out from my AT Josh
28:57
under Score Insights Twitter account or the ASG Pod Twitter
28:59
account, that would mean quite a bit to me as well.
29:01
But seriously, give it five stars.
29:03
That would really make my day. Secondly, if you enjoy the
29:08
breakdowns and you want to learn more about how to be a
29:10
data-driven contrarian sports better, then guess what I would
29:14
recommend buying my book. It's going to cost you about 20
29:17
bucks with support the team, and I think it's going to be 20
29:19
bucks well spent, whether for you or for friend or a colleague
29:23
or buddy of yours or your aunt, your uncle, someone in a newly
29:26
legalized state, someone who's new to betting or interested in
29:28
betting or like sports but never kind of knew how to get started
29:32
in betting. Well, I wrote a book to
29:34
hopefully help these people who are new to betting or even
29:37
intermediary bettors to make some money.
29:39
So all you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
29:41
Everything Guide to Sports betting, pick up a copy for you
29:44
or for friend. It mean everything to me guys.
29:47
It's got everything. I've learned how lines are set,
29:49
how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
29:52
locate sharp action, how to place that in person or online,
29:55
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
29:57
management plan. All included in the everything
29:59
guide to sports thing. So pick a pick a pick up a copy.
30:02
I will sign it for you and buy you a beer when I see at the
30:05
sports book. And then lastly Rhythm who does
30:08
a great job power in this podcast.
30:10
Have you guys signed up and taken advantage of a free 7 day
30:13
free trial for Rhythm? I hope you have, but if not I
30:15
want you to go do that right now.
30:18
Then you can look at all the edges on your own.
30:20
You can use rhythm as another tool to help you decide what to
30:23
bet and whether it's game bets or player props.
30:26
NBA player props are really where I see a lot of people
30:28
enjoying rhythm. Because again, who else is going
30:31
to give you, I don't know, Tyler Hero under 3 1/2 rebounds and he
30:34
lands with one. I mean, rhythm is is so great at
30:37
these AI backed models. Will everyone win?
30:39
Of course not. But you're looking to create an
30:41
edge here to help you make smart bets.
30:43
So if you haven't done it yet, go sign up for a rhythm free
30:45
trial so you can start making AI back picks on your own.
30:48
But I need you to sign up in a specific way.
30:50
Just go to my Twitter page at Josh under score Insights.
30:53
You can click the pinned tweet at the top of my page with a
30:56
custom link to sign up for rhythm, because I want them to
30:59
know that I referred you. That's very important here.
31:01
And you can also sign up, I believe, with a link in the
31:04
Spotify bio. You'll find that there as well.
31:06
But give Rhythm a shot and it will legit totally change the
31:09
way you look at player props, which again, if you look at kind
31:13
of the way sports books talk about player props, player
31:16
props. To me, I've been kind of late to
31:18
the party, I guess because I've been a very traditional, you
31:21
know, money line spread over under better.
31:23
But I got pretty big into player props for the NFL this past
31:26
season and obviously been dabbling with NHLNBA.
31:29
But player props, the books will come out and tell you it's hard
31:33
for them to set these numbers. So there's there's money to be
31:35
made with player props and that's where rhythm can help you
31:37
make some money. So sign up for that rhythm
31:39
account, Give it a shot. Again, click that link on the
31:41
top of my Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights.
31:44
But that about does it, everyone.
31:45
Another pod here in the books. Episode 32, as always, whether I
31:49
see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
31:53
Rhode Island, The Brook in New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan
31:55
Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
31:57
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
32:01
And in my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the
32:04
desert where the true grinders get down.
32:06
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners with lowest use
32:09
possible found the South Point or sweating sharp contrarian
32:11
plays jumping in the Stadium swim pool after you.
32:14
After you get a VV burger at Circa.
32:17
Wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me and you're
32:20
going to show me some some tickets from the draft.
32:22
We had a decent draft, guys. How about you show me a 123
32:25
exacta with Williams, May and Daniels?
32:29
Pennix under 32. Brooks first running back Quinon
32:31
Mitchell. First corner Mims under 22 1/2.
32:34
Knicks under 32 1/2 JC Latham. That was the big one.
32:38
I'm glad we hedged that. That really gave us the winning
32:40
draft. There.
32:42
A hedge of Latham, Second offensive lineman selected at a
32:45
very good plus 250. And guess what?
32:48
First one's on me, Next one's on you.
32:50
We're going to post about the books, but sharp contrarian
32:52
plays all night long, so wish you the best of luck, everyone.
32:56
Of course I'll leave you with this, which I always like to
32:58
leave you with my parting words and wisdom.
33:01
Always remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian.
33:03
Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
33:05
the house. Always be with the smart money,
33:07
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
33:09
Of course not. Betting is difficult.
33:11
You can beat the closing line. You can do everything right and
33:14
maybe they just let you down. But also don't get disgruntled.
33:17
And we can consistently, you know, be fearless with
33:20
discipline and make bets based on our head and not our heart.
33:22
Games that fit our model against the public, with the house, with
33:25
the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
33:28
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
33:31
So enjoy your Monday everyone. Let's see if we can start off
33:34
the final week of April on a hot note.
33:37
Let's cash some tickets tonight and then I'll see you guys
33:39
tomorrow for episode 33, The Larry Bird Edition of the All
33:43
Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast.
33:45
Have a great Monday, everyone. Good luck.