Latest / Toadstool Sports / Blue Jays/Yankees MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets 9/6/25

Transcript

Blue Jays/Yankees MLB + NCAAF + WNBA Best Bets 9/6/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: bruins hat man. I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch Hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what datas anymore. Man, back with
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with you, as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I don't
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: sum discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you better off dead. Saturday, September sixth,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: If you're looking for college football, I did the show
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: last night. I do late night football shows, man, so
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: thanks to everybody who joined. That show is still out there.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: There's still time if you want to go watch that.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I will reiterate my college football plays, which are very ugly.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: You can go see the analysis on that show. But
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: I do late night college football and NFL shows. But
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I have Troy plus thirty one, Rutgers minus fourteen, Middle
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Tennessee State MTSU Baby plus twenty eight and a half,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: and LA Tech Louisiana Tech plus thirty seven and a half.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: You can go see why. You can check my instagram
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: learn to Toe. The videos for those are up as well.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna add four baseball plays as well with this
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: full baseball card. I like some of the baseball situations here.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a lot of unders, but what else
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: is new? Charles? What's up? Man? Thanks for hanging out
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: unders that I have some concerns about the way that
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: I'm playing some of the unders, like I would. There's
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: some situations where it's like, I don't know if I
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: want to go full game or first five. The only
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: one that's gonna be a first five is one that
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: like absolutely needs to be a first five though, and
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: the others I just decided, well, the full game is
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: on the key number, so let's just do that instead.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: But anyway, Yeah, thanks guys for hanging out. Payt like, like,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the show, you know, get the notifications, man,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: because I go live somewhat randomly, but it's usually pretty
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: consistently around ten am Eastern for the regular shows, at
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: least for now while I'm not working. And then we
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: got midnight around midnight Eastern, I do the Friday Nights
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: is the college football show. Saturday Nights is the NFL
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: show for basically the Big day, the Big Board. So
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: tonight NFL Week one, man, I will give. I will
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: have my show. We're already one to oh in the
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: NFL with the Dallas Cowboys plus the points, so let's
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: keep it going. I'm gonna have at least two more
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: NFL plays. I don't hate the card this week for
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the NFL the board, so we'll see. I do hate
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: this college football board, though baseball, I don't really hate it.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: But let's get into this, man, let's do today's breakdown.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I don't want this video to go that long, although
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I always say that, and it does. Let's try to
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: keep it from doing that. We do have WNBA today.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have two games where one team has
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: something to play for and the other dozen't. But I'm
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: not gonna recommend to play on either Phoenix at Connecticut.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Phoenix is laying ten and a half on the road,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: and it looks like the money's actually coming back on
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Connecticut sixty seven percent of tickets on Phoenix, fifty four
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Connecticut. I don't get it
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: because Phoenix is the only team that has anything to
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: play for here. I mean, yeah, I guess Connecticut if
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: you want to argue, they might want to spoil Phoenix
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: their season in some way, but it's not like they
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: can really do that either. Phoenix. They're gonna be in
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. It's just they're jocking for positioning right now,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Phoenix has won six games in a row. I don't
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: really want to jump in front of that man. And
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: the last game that they played was the first game
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of the road trip and it was a close game
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: against Washington. So again, Phoenix, it seems like they might
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: actually focus a little bit more committed to this game.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: To me, Connecticut again, nothing to play for here other
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: than avoiding being the last place team and in the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Eastern godfreitz, I guess that's something. They've lost three games
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: in a row. They did get blown out by Chica
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: last time I was is pretty embarrassing, I guess, so
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll have some focus for that reason. Minnesota at
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Golden State. Minnesota has already wrapped up the one seed
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs, so they're kind of on cruise control
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: until they get to the playoffs. So though if I
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: were them, I would still be playing my starters enough
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: to keep them used to playing, you know what I mean,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: although you don't want to get them injured either, so
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: it's kind of if you're the coach, you have to
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: kind of do this like player management type of thing.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Minnesota did lose their last game at Vegas. Vegas is
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: really hot right now. Vegas cannot catch Minnesota, but Vegas
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: is gonna be They're gonna be a tough out in
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Man Minnesota and Vegas are probably indeed the
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: top two teams in the West. I would say I
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: thought Vegas might eventually, it might come to this, that
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Vegas would end up coming back and proving that they're
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: the better team over Phoenix. But in this game Minnesota, again,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: they don't really have anything to play for Golden State.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: They're trying to play for playoff position and trying to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: make sure they make the playoffs, which I think it's
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: still maybe in question. I don't think they've clinched a
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: playoff spot yet. They've been playing well. They've won five
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They just barely beat Dallas last
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: time out, and that was a sandwich spot. I think
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I pointed that out on my show. They had beaten
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: the Liberty the game before that huge game, and then
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: they had Minnesota. Maybe I should have given that out
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: as a play. I mean, I haven't given out any
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: WNBA plays for a while. I know our fan, our
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: friend Alex out there wants more WNBA. I will give
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: up more in the playoffs. For sure, but I probably
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: should have given out Dallas in that game, So I
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: apologize for that because that was a sandwich spot between
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the two teams that were in the finals last year
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: and maybe again be New York and Minnesota. So yeah,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: I mean that's why Golden State didn't do that well
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: against Dallas, and I think they step it up in
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: this game, man, and they're getting points at home. The
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: only way that I would look at this game is
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Golden State. Minnesota's already down for seven a half to
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: six and a half though, so I would prefer to
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: take the seven if you want Golden State here. Seven
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: is a key number, man. It looks like the line
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: is moving in this direction. Sixty percent of tickets only
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent of the cash on Golden State. That
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: makes no sense to me. I don't think the public
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: is gonna be gonna look at this game and take
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Golden State because they don't know what the fuck is
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: going on. But yeah, I would. I would take the
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: points of Golden State. That's probably the better look out
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: of the two games. The WNBA or what time of
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: year WNBA is a summer sport and it's not that
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: long of a season. They play from like mid May
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: into September. The playoffs are in September. I'm pretty sure
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the playoffs are coming up soon. I think the it
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: finishes I think before October if I'm not mistaken. I
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: don't remember, though, but it's a pretty short season. Let's
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: go to Major League Baseball here, man. We got a
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: bunch going on. We have a couple of afternoon games,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: so I gotta get this video out, And as you
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: can see in my in the title here, one of
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: my plays is gonna be on one of the big
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: games of the day, Blue Jay's Yankees. So I'm gonna
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: hold on on that for now. Washington at the Cubs.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: The Cubs won eleven to five yesterday, and if you
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: watch my show, I told you I thought the best
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: way to play that was Cubs over their team total,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: and that was certainly correct, as they scored eleven runs
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: in the game against Washington. And I think that's actually
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: probably the way to look in this game, too, man,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: because you know, the Cubs are gonna be a huge
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: favorite again here. The Cubs obviously have something to play for.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Washington at least had stopped their losing ways and we're
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: on a win streak before yesterday, you think Washington will
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: probably try to show up for a game against the Cubs.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: With the Cubs again, they do have something to play for,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: trying to make the playoffs. Make sure that they make
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. They're battling for their division. The Cubs have
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: the better offense and the better bullpen out of these
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: two teams. Cubs did use four relief pitchers yesterday, but
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: so did Washington. Washington's bullpen is way worse, like I said,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And Washington has Brad Lord on the mound who caught
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: me a couple of times because I tried to fade
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: him and he beat me. He'd beat he beat me man.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: He's an abuser. He's just not that good man. So
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: I knew the time would come that he would stop
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: pitching that well. He wasn't even pitching that well necessarily.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: He just wasn't aligning that many runs somehow. But he's
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: got a four point three four ERA one point three
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: to two whip on the season, very mediocre. He's actually
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: been better on the road though, three point four r
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: on the road. He's been awful in his last few starts,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: so he's allowed four or more and runs in all
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of them six or more in the last two, familing
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: to go five innings in either of them seven point
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: oh six ERA in August twenty six to eleven strike
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, and that was with a couple of
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: decent starts earlier in the month. So he's in real
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: bad form right now. He's in bad form. He doesn't
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: have a lot of history against the Cubs at all.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: They have five hitters who've seen him. They're only one
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: for six off and with a Carlos Santana home run.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I didn't even realize Carlos Santana was on the Cubs now. Man,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: he is so old now, but he's he's out there
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: playing that move guitar. Baby. Uh. But yeah, they only
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: have a one sixty seven average but a nine two
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: ops because they have a home run and a walk
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: against him in the walk as Suzuki. But whatever. I
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: don't think Lord is gonna do well in this game.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: He's up against Matthew Boyd, who was obviously the better
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: of the two pitchers two point nine four ERA one
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: point seven. With the problem with Boyd is he might
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: be wearing down because if you look at his innings pitched,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: he has not pitched anywhere near what he's thrown for
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: his amount of innings this year since twenty nineteen. That's
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the last time he went above what he's at now
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty nine and a third innings pitched.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: He only did that twice in his career with Detroit
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: twenty eighteen twenty nineteen. So I'm worried that Boyd, after
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: some shortened seasons, he might be wearing down a little bit.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Because he hasn't been good in his last three outings.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: He's given up four or more and runs in all three.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: You can give him a pass maybe for not pitching
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: that well. At course, Field did still have a five
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio. That was his most
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: recent outings. Man seems to be back, but he walked
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: three guys apiece in the other routings. One was against Milwaukee,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: we know they're a good offense. One was against the Giants,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: who are not a good offense. So I just I
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: don't know exactly what we're gonna get out of Boyd.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Here Man. His numbers are all right against Washington, they're
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: not great. Thirty six at bats eight five strike a
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is not that good. Two fifty batting average
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: and seven at fifty eight ops is a little bit high.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, I prefer boyd if you're like looking at
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the side in this game. But again, I think you
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: should just go with the Cubs to just score off
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: of Brad Lord, Lord and company Lord plus Washington's atrocious bullpen.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: That's what I would go with. You have eighty percent.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Took his ninety seven percent of the couch on the over,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: even though the total dropped a little bit from nine
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: and a half to nine. But I think Cubs over
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the team total is the right approach. Again here, I
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: wouldn't touch anything with the money line or anything like
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: that there at minus two fifty or even a run line. Yeah,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: he's the black magic, black magic batter. Carlos Santana Baby.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Next up, we do have well Philadelphia Miami, and I was,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say this is a big game.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: We have the game that made all the headlines yesterday.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: If you guys didn't see it, it was it went
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: massively Viraul Dude. I like this phenomenon where people that
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: are behaving badly in public settings, they just get completely
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: outed because everybody's recording everything. It's all in social media,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: it gets televised, you know whatever, Uh, the revolution will
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: be televised. I guess he had like the cold playanes
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and getting that CEO and his HR woman screwed rightfully
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: because they both suck. Then we had if you didn't
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: see it. At the US Open tennis last week, I
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: forget who the tennis player was. I hadn't really heard
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: of him, but there was a tennis player who signed
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: a ball and he was giving it to a kid
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: and some rich asshole just took the ball from the
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: kid and the kid was there crying, and it was
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: caught on tape, and then people figured out who that
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: guy was, and that guy was some CEO as well.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I think he's like a I don't know if he's
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a Czech dude, he's some European dude. So he's basically
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: fucked now. And people figured out who that boy was,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and the tennis player like gave him a bunch of
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: signs stuff. So you know, everything has it's way of
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: working out, man. But in the Philadelphia I don't want
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: this video to go too long, but in the Phillies
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: Miami game last night, it was a weird situation. Man,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it was a home run ball
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: or foul ball. I don't know exactly what it was,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: but I just saw the that sort of what happened
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: after the ball landed in the stands. There was kind
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: of a fractice for the ball, and the two people
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: who were closest to it were a guy who was
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a father and some lesbian looking woman. This woman is
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: like she looks like the epitome of HR. Like she
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: must be either HR. I don't think people figured out
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: who she is but yet, but she must be either
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: HR or in like academics, like a teacher or something
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: like that. Like those are the only two possibilities really,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: because this woman, yeah Karen exactly. So, Yeah, she has
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: this short hair that's like dyed like white on the top,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Like she looks like an old woman. And she might
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: actually even be younger than she looks, because she has
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: her hair dyed like white, but it's like darker underneath that.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: She has these hideous glasses. She looks like Rosie O'Donnell.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: So the dude got the ball and that was it.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: I mean he got the ball first. That's it. He
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: got it. It's his ball, and he brought it over.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: He was with his kids. He brought it over to
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: his son. Okay, cool, that should be the end of it.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: The Karen runs over to them and starts yelling, there's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: some footage that somebody took like right in the stands
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: next to her with their phone whatever. I think they
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: posted on a snapchat because I saw that video, and
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: she's yell, you know I had it first, like you know,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: you took it from me, that's mine? Like what the fuck? Like,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: what is this old lady even doing? She wants to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: take this away from a child, Like, are you fucking
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: kidding me? And the guy the father was a complete
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: cuck by by the way, the father never should have
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: given her the ball. Why would he do that? He
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: looked scared she came over to him, and he looked
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: totally starved when he went like this like, oh my god,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: no this lady, Like what is it? Dude, Be a
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: fucking man, be like, no, I got the ball, Farren Square,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I'm giving it to my son. Fuck off, lady. That's
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: exactly what he should have done. But that's not what
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: he did. He gave her the ball like a coward.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: But then his son did wind up being rewarded because
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: everybody filmed it, so he doesn't deserve to be rewarded. Man,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry the father, he was a bitch in that situation.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: The woman is an evil person, the guy's a coward.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: The son does deserve to get stuff out of it.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, why not, Like he's a kid, make him happy.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: So this was at the Marlins Stadium, and the Marlins,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: like the crew at the stadium, I guess, found out
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: that this had happened while the game was still going on,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: and they brought the kid a bunch of stuff. And
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: then the kid actually wanted to be able to meet
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Harrison bad or the Affilies player and got pictures with them,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: so that was pretty cool. She's hr FRAMISNBC. I don't know,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: cause she's a Phillies fan, but she's in Miami for
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: this game, so I don't know. I mean, I actually
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: tried to figure out who she was. I did reverse
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: image searching, I did facial recognition on her, and it
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: didn't work. Like the quality just wasn't good enough to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: figure out who she was. Like, like, I got a
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: bunch of images of women of like women that look
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: like lesbians giving like blow jobs and stuff, and I'm
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: like is that her Maybe I don't know, but she
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I mean, I guess that's just the
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: type that she resembles. But yeah, that was crazy. I
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: don't want to go too long on that, but I
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: mean this show, I do want to have some funny
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: content in this show, so I mean, I'll talk about
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: crazy stuff like that. Yeah, that was insane. So it
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: worked out for the Sun, which was good. But oh yeah,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: you were looking at that too. Yeah did you get
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: a boner? Did you jerk off man? But oh yeah,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: I have to talk about this game. Philadelphia, Miami, Philadelphia.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, they have something to play for, obviously, Miami.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: Really they're only Miami's only playing for you know the
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: fact that they're playing a divisional foe at home, So
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I mean that is kind of motivation. Miami U is
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: a ton of their bullpen yesterday though, so that doesn't
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: look great. I believe I said that I liked the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: under in yesterday's game, and I think it still happened.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Philly has a much more rested bullpen here, even though
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: their bullpen isn't that good. Miami's is actually the the
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: less bad of the two bullpens, but the bullpen usage
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: was so heavy on the Miami side. I actually think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia may have a bullpen edge, and this one. The
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup, is interesting because these are two starting
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: pitchers that are really difficult to figure out because they've
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: been really good and really bad at different times this season.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Jesus Lazard I was pitching for the Phillies four point
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: zero five VRA one point two eight WHIP decent numbers.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: He's better on the road three point five to nine
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: ERA good. In his last outing, he shut out Atlanta
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: for six to two thirds, seven strikeouts, one walk. His
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: strikeout numbers have gone back up. He's actually been pretty
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: good except for one bad outing at the Mets. He
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: was actually good for the entire month of August three
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: point one two ERA forty two to eight strike a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. So he actually seems like he is back
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: in form after he had a some really bad outings
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the season where I guess he
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: was like tipping his pitches after he was really good
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season, So he seems like
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: he is good again right now. He's actually facing his
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: former team, the Marlins here, which I believe this is
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: not the first time he's facing them, though he faced
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: them earlier this year, so it's a game that he
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: would get pumped up for if it was his first
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: time out, which that happened early this season in April,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: and he did pitch pretty well in that game. Didn't
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: do well the last time out against Miami, though, so
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: which which, heyeseus is gonna show up to the ballpark
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: this time. I actually don't really know. His numbers against
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: Miami overall are good. Thirty one at bats it's not
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: a huge sample. Eight three strike a walk ratio. I
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: mean that's not great. One ninety four batting average, five
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: point fifty five. Ohps. Those are some low offensive numbers there.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: So he does do well against Miami. He's going up
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: against Sandy Alcantra. Who are we getting the second coming
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: of this guy now? And I don't mean that he's
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: being jerked off or anything like that, or maybe he is.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's what's improving his pitching. I don't know. He's
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: got a five point six six ERA and one point
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: three to two whip this year, but those numbers have
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: actually improved as of late. He's better at home four
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: point five eighty Ra and Holmes. If you are liking
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: the pitching in this game, you get the home road
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: splits in both pitchers favors. Here, al Contra actually has
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer earned runs in his last four starts.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: He's gone six or more innings and all of them
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: seven innings in the last three, including starts against the
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Red Sox and the Mets in those last four, both
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: on the road. So is he actually becoming his old self?
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, because he's a guy that seemed
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: like his career was over after his Tommy John surgeries.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: He had never turn to form. But he's definitely in
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: form right now. With those last few starts he had
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: seven or more strikeouts and three of the four as well,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: six or more in all four thirty eight to ten
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio in August three point six nine
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: yard racio. He's pitching better all Contra, man, But against
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia he does not do well. They have a ton
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: of at bats against him two hundred and eighty six
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: at bats. That's gonna be one of the one of
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the biggest sample sizes you'll see. Fifty seven to twenty
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratio is not very good. Three
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: h one batting average eight to twenty one. Ohps, none
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: of that is very good either. Every hitter that has
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: a home runoff of him in Philly's lineup has two
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: of them. Bryce Harper, Max Kepler, jt Real Muto, and
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Trey Turner all have two on runs a piece off him.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: So I still don't know if you could trust al
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Contra man. I would lean to Philadelphia in this game,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: even including the bullpens here. Philly obviously is the better
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: offense too, but their bullpen is in better rest shape
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: right now. For minus one fifty one fifty four on
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: the money line, though, so it's a pretty steep price
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: seventy four percent of the cash and then fifty six
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: percent tickets on Miami. I don't understand how the public
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: could possibly be on Miami in this game, but I
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: would lean to Philly. I do think they have the
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: advantage across the board, and this one wouldn't hate and
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: under at least in the first five because I still
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: don't love the bullpens. But if you think al Contra
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: will continue to pitch well because he is informed right
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: now and under maybe makes sense. But I do worry
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: about the fact that Philly just smashes him Uh, the
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: total did go up a little bit for me, juice
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: to the under to eight seventy per tickets ninety seven
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. So I worry
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: about the thought of an under there a little bit. Uh.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: White Sox are at Detroit. This is a divisional matchup.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: Detroit actually lost yesterday. They lost three of their last
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: four games. Now, they were coming off of a series
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: against the Mets that was a much bigger series. Detroit,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: they might be in a little bit of cruise control
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: mode right now. Man, even though they still probably want
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: to play to get the top seed in the AL. Man,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: they'd like to have home field. It matters. I mean
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: home field matters more this year than I can remember
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: it ever mattering in baseball. Detroit is one of those
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: teams that has a really good home record. A lot
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: of teams are really bad on the road this year Detroit.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: But again, they do have a big lead in their
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: division right now at least, but still they got a
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: battle with like Yankees, Toronto, whatever, as far as the
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: best even Houston for the best record in the AL.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: They'll probably be pissed because they did lose to the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: White Sox yesterday. That's pretty embarrassing. Detroit has the better offense,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Detroit has the better bullpend. They use less of their
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: bullpend over the last couple of days, So Detroit has
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of advantages in this game. But the starting
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: pitching actually, to me, looks like this is a decent
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup. You've got good old Martin Perez pitching
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox, who has been good against since
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: coming back. Man forgotten about him again. He's a guy
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: that I always just considered to be kind of this
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: junk pitcher who's pitched like an old man even when
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: he wasn't that old. And I'm like, nah, this guy's
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: not that good. But he's not even really that old.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: He had thirty four and he's still out there doing it.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: And since the White Socks have had him in the rotation,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: he's been good two point one sixty RA point nine
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: to eight whip, a little bit worse on the road though,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: three point seventy R on the road. But his uh,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: he came back in August after he pitched early in
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: the season in April, and he wasn't even really that
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: bad then four starts in August. He's got a twenty
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: one to four strike up walk ratio in one point
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: two five ERA, and he allowed two or fewer earned
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: runs in all of them, and the only game where
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: he allowed two was against the Yankees. So I mean
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Perez is pitching pretty well right now. He did face Detroit, though,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: that was his worst start since coming back, but it
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: was also his first. The first was the worst, so
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: I think they were trying to ease him back. As
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: you can see, his pitch count has increased with every outing.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: But sure we would be worried that he threw ninety
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: nine pitches in his last down. He was the most
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: that he's thrown in quite a while, and it was
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: a big game against the Yankees. Maybe maybe we worry
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: about him a little bit. But his numbers are good
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: against Detroit one hundred and ten at bats, two thirty
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: six average, six to ninety one oh ps. He's actually
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: been pretty good against Detroit in his career. Twenty five
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: to ten strike a walk ratio is not good. I mean,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: he's not a strikeout guy, really, but he does hold
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Detroit's offense down. And maybe he will focus here and
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: be pumped up because he gets to go face Taric
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: schoolbo Man. He gets to face the potential cy young
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: winner here Schoolble. We know he's having a really good
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: season two point one eight ERA. Point eight to seven
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: whip is elite for giving how many innings pitched he
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: has this year. He's slightly worse at home. Two point
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: three four ERA is still really good. Past month doesn't
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: really show signs of wearing down forty five to eight
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio. Three times he hit double digit strikeouts,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: including two of his last three outings two point five
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: two ERA. Over that span, his team won all but
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: one of those games, five of the six. The only
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: one they lost was a game at the A, which
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: is just a bizarre stadium, and Schooble's fielding like destroyed
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: his outing in that one. He only let one earned run,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: but five unearned runs scored while he was while the
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: runs were being charged to him, but they were unearned,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: so the fielding totally lapsed behind him. He bounced back
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: with a shutout for seven innings against Kansas City. But
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: it's Kansas City. They're not a good offense, but neither
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: is Chicago the White Sox. Schooble has been pretty good
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: against them, I mean not pretty good. Dominant in fifty
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: at bats, fifteen to one strike a walk ratio two
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: hundred average, four fifty six ops. So the way that
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: I'd be looking at this game is under in the
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: first five innings. Man, But it's a low total. It's
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half, heavily juiced to the unders,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: so it's basically seven on the full game. I mean,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: if you wanted to try to take the shot with
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the full game, because you get you know, one of
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the key numbers there, seven and you can get the
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: under seven, I mean, I wouldn't disagree with that. Like
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think this looks like it's gonna be
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: an under type of game to me. Fifty six percent
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over seventy nine percent of the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: couch on the over, though, so that worries me a
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: little bit. Detroit's a massive favorite up to minus three
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: zero five. There's no way you can play a heavy
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: money line favorite like that. But I would maybe limit
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: it to the first five innings, although you probably have
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: to go under three and a half to get the
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: first five innings under here, it looks like it's gonna
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: be a pitching duel to me early on in that game.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: But that is not one of the plays that I
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: have here that that one was fairly close, though, to
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: be honest, I was considering under in that game. First
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: five innings Milwaukee at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh lost yesterday. I mean,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: they were coming off a sweep of the Dodgers, but
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: this is a big series for really for both teams too.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: I mean Pittsburgh, I know they're not going anywhere. They're
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: playing out the stretch, but you got one of your
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: divisional foes coming in and it's the top team in
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: your division that's gonna focus you. It's just you can
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: only do so much when you're the lesser team. So
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee did win yesterday. Milwaukee has the way better offense.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: They have the better bullpen as well, even though the
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: their bullpen is a bit injured right now, but it's
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: decently rested after yesterday. Then it used a lot of
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: their bullpen. Only two guys came out of the bullpen.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Excuse Pittsburgh. Sorry, Pittsburgh only used three, But their bullpen
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: isn't as good a Milwaukee is. Brandon woodroof on the Mountain.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit more rough recently after he
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: was really really hot to start when he came back.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: He's coming back from like Tommy John surgery and missing
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: an entire season. He's still pitching well, a three point
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: six ninety ARRA one point zero to whip. He's been
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: slightly worse than the road, but his home road splits
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: are almost even. Man now. The problem is his last
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: two starts were both ugly. He gave up five and
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: runs in both of them. Actually, his last three starts,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: he failed to go five innings in two of the three.
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: He gave up three or more and runs in all three,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: but they were against the Cubs, Arizona and Toronto, so
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: he was facing top, basically top several offenses and made
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Julie baseball in all of those games. But he didn't
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: pitch well. The game before that, he had a shortened
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: start for some reason because he was shutting out these
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: very same Pittsburgh Pirates, and they took him out after
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: four innings. I remember I had Milwaukee on the run
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: line and that game, I'm pretty sure, and it got
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: there at won. But I don't know why they took
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Woodruff out of that game when they did. I don't
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: get it. But he is back to pitching his normal
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: like throwing his normal amount of pitches, so that's fine,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: I guess, and his numbers are good against Pittsburgh UH
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: seventy one at bats, twenty seven to eight streke a
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is alright, and one ninety seven batting average
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: allowed six h two o ps, so he does well
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh for the most part. He should have the
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge against Mitch Keller, although Keller's not that bad.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: UH four point two to one ERA, one point two
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: eight whip isn't that great, but he's alright. He's a
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home four point two seven ERA.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: Over the past month, he was not very good. Thirty
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: two to eleven strike a walk ratio strikeout rate actually
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: got pretty high, but he had a six point five
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: two ERA. That's not good. He's been better over his
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: last two starts, though, both on the road against Saint
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Louis and Boston. He gave up three earned runs total
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: across that entire span. Of the four unearned runs came
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: home against Boston. My Red Sox sixteen strikeouts and two
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: walks in those two outings. So Keller, you could argue
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: maybe he's coming back into form. Looking at those last
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: two starts. But this could knock him right back out
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: of form because he's not good against Milwaukee. One hundred
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: and seventeen of bats thirty one to ten strike a
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: walk ratios. Alright, but he's allowed nineteen RBIs, three point
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: thirty three batting average, eight seventy three ops. That's no good.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: So this game, I mean, it looks like to me
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: the only way you could really look to play this
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: game is Milwaukee. Uh, they're down for minus one fifty
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: to master one thirty six. Though it's a fairly steep
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: price on the road. I guess you do have to
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: worry about Woodruff being in the lesser really recent form
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: than Keller is. That seems to be the only real
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee disadvantage here. But they're public, and the line has
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: kind of moved against them. They got ninety four percent
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: of tickets, one hundred percent of the cash. I don't
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: buy those numbers. I don't think those numbers are fully
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: fleshed out yet. But we will see, Andrew, what's up man? Yeah,
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: the the Karen in Philly did look like pocahon as
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren. Dude, she looks like Rosi o'donald. All these
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: people look the same man, Rosie o'donald uh Mark Cuban. Yeah,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren. Uh, that dad is a cock as well. Yeah,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I mean that is he should not have dude. He
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: he caved so fast. It's ridiculous. It's like, aren't you
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: supposed to be like protecting your children? Matt Cincinnati, I'm
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: gonna have a play on. I'm gonna have some some
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: plays on some of the bigger games today, man, So
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: I'll give that out at the end. Uh Cleveland at
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. Uh. These teams have already played two games
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: in this yeraries and they split, with Tampa losing yesterday
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: seven to one. I still think Tampa is the better
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: of these two teams. I think Cleveland and not as
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: good as they look. Tampa is actually a bit better
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: than they look. Cleveland only these two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Tampa used four. Cleveland does actually have the better bullpen,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, but Tampa has the better offense.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: This is a stadium that road teams don't do particularly
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: well in because it's Steinbrenner Field, Tampa's temporary home stadium.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: It's a very hitter friendly ballpark, and that might not
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: be good for these pitchers, either tann or Bayby pitcher
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: for the Cleveland Indians. Here, he's not having a great season.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Four point seven to seven YRRA, one point three to
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: one WHIP. He's been pretty bad on the road five
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: point six four ARRA on the road this past month,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: he's been awful. Twenty nine to sixteen strike a walk
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: ratio that's really bad. Six point one five ra also
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: really bad. Gave up four more and runs in all
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: but one of those outings across the entire month. Yeah,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: he's not a good form. We know this. Maybe he's
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: kind of not really motivated as we know the team's
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: not going anywhere, although neither is Tampa. His numbers against
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: Tampa are okay. In forty nine at bats, thirteen to three,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is pretty solid two sixty five
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: average allowed, seven thirty six ops. Mediocre numbers there for
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Biby against Tampa, he's going up against Shane BoSz, who
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the one good thing about Boss is that he strikes
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: out a lot. He has good strikeout stuff, but he
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: just has his stuff just hasn't really come to full
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: fruition as the rest of his numbers just don't get
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: the job done. Four point nine eighty R, one point
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: three to four whip not great. He's really bad in
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: this stadium six point four to seventy R, and he's
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: been lit up in this stadium for eighteen of the
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: twenty six Hoo runs he's allowed this season in fewer
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: innings than he's thrown on the road, too, so that's
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: not a good sign. He's been good over his last
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: couple outings though, at Cleveland and at home against Seattle.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Gave it three on runs across those twelve innings, had
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: a thirteen to four strike a walk ratio, so he
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: did pitch a little bit better in those two outings.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: He was really really awful prior to that. In August
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: had a seven point nine overall, although thirty four to
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: ten strike a walk ra issue was actually pretty good.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: He is pretty good against Cleveland in twenty at bats,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: seven to two strike a walk ratio, no extra base hits,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: one fifty batting average in three seventy seven ops. The
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: other thing you have to be concerned about here is
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: that both of these starting pitchers just faced these lineups
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: not that long ago. In late August, Boz did well
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: against Cleveland, went six innings that was one of those
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: two starts that I just mentioned. He gave up three
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: and runs and that one had seven strikeouts two walks
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland. But when an offense has just seen that
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher, sometimes they do better the next time out
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: against that pitcher. And Baby just pitched against Tampa the
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: day before then he didn't do that well. He gave
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: it five and runs and six innings, eight hits, three walks,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: three strikeouts. He did not do well in that game.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: So to me, it looks like the offenses might actually
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: have the upper hand in this game, even though bos
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: does match up pretty well. So my leans are both
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: against the market in this one. Man, I would lean
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: to Tampa here, but maybe only first five because they're bullpen.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Looks like it's a little bit of a concern right now.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Tampa's up for minus one thirty to minus one thirty two,
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: but fifty eight percent of tickets on them seventy five
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Cleveland, so I do worry
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: about that. A bit total drop for mat and half
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: to eight, which is also weird. Fifty eight percent of
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: tickets on the over eighty three percent of the cash
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: on the under. Don't really agree with it though. I
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: mean I would lean towards the over in this one.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I mean I could see both starting pitchers potentially struggling here.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I think Boz because he does have the better matchup numbers.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: I think he has the better strikeout stuff at this
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: point too. I would have a slight lean to Tampa
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Bay in the first five to bounce back here and
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: just avoid their bullpen Dodgers and Orioles. I'm gonna have
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a play on that game too. You probably know what
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: these players are gonna be. Seattle, let Atlanta. This game
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: is a little bit difficult to figure out. Man. Yeah,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: the libtard face was the Karen at Philadelphia. Yeah, Atlanta. Uh,
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: they won the first game of this Syeeraries won two
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: games in a row. They won yesterday four to one.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are fairly well rested here. Actually there's some
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: of them were rested in all of baseball really. I
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: think Seattle does have the better of the bullpens though,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: and the better offense, although it's not that significant, and
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: they are on the road here, and we know Seattle
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: doesn't really do as well on the road, especially they're
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: starting pitching and Bryce Miller is pitching for the Mariners,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: and he's had a very injury plague season throughout his
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: career prior to this, he's been a lot better than
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: his numbers are this year. He just hasn't come back
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: into four him this year kind of sad, just like
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: all the Seattle's pitchers. He is worse on the road too,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: but he's been bad overall this season. Five point seven
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: to one ERA, one point four to one WHIP. Again,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: he hasn't pitched that much this season due to all
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: these injuries. He's been worse on the road yet again,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: five point nine to one ERA. His last outing wasn't
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: too bad against Cleveland. He gave up two earn runs
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: only three strikeouts though to one walk. He still has
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: a five point six to three ERA since coming back
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: from injury in late August. He gave up four and
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: runs in five innings in the other two outings against
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Philly and San Diego. Philly's a good offense, San Diego
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that great. Miller has really good numbers against
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: the Braves though, in forty two at bats thirteen to
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio one ninety batting average of
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: five thirteen ops. Just like I said, though, with Logan
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: Gilbert yesterday. My guess is that these Seattle pitchers, I'm
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: pretty sure that those numbers have to be when they
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: pitched at home, because these Seattle pitchers are way more
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: dominant at home. So and the under did still happen yesterday.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: It was a good pitching matchup yesterday between Gilbert and Sale.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: This looks like it could be a good pitching matchup
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: if you get the best out of both these pitchers. Miller, yes,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: he did pitch well against Atlanta in the past, but
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not ready to trust Miller here man just because
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: the forum that he's been in is so bad. Hurston
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: waldropped this pitching for the Braves. He's a twenty three
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: year old rookie and he's off to a good start
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: to his career. Man. He's got a one point one
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: ERA and one point one WHIP. He's been better at
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: home too, points six to ninety RA. He's got four wins.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: The Braves have won every one of his six starts.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: He's pitching well, thirty three to eleven strikeout walker race year.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: It's a few too many walks, mostly because the last
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: outing he walked four guys and five to two thirds
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: in he's against Philly still held them in one run, though,
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: and they wound up winning that game late in the
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: game too. Waldrop is definitely pitching well man, and now
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: he gets to go up against the Seattle team where
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: they haven't seen him except for a Rosa rain I
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: don't know when a Rosa Raina would have faced him,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: but he did. He's won for one, often with a single,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: but other than that, Waldrop is completely unf Oh, I
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: guess he pitched last year. That's why I didn't realize
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: Waldrop pitched last year, but he only made two starts,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: so that was not a qualify. That did not qualify
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: as his rookie season. This season might not either, depends
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: how much he continues to pitch. But he's pitching well man.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: He's good, and again with the unfamiliarity edge here against Seattle,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: I think Atlanta does have the edge in that game.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: Public is on Seattle sixty seven percent of tickets, but
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: a six percent of the cash coming in on Seattle.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: Seattle does have more to play for as Seattle is
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: still trying to make the playoffs here, whereas Atlanta is
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: resigned to the fact that they know they're not going
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: to make the playoffs and Atlanta's dropped for minutus one
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: forty to minus one twenty one. But I don't really
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: agree with that. I think Atlanta they have the upper
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: hand here man, in this pitching matchup, and the bullpens
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: are kind of even, so I could see going either
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: first five or full game with Atlanta here. That would
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: be my preference in this game. The total flip from
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: nine juice to the under to n I juice to
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: the over, I don't know if I agree with that, man.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, I have a slight tendency to want to
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: lean towards an under because the bullpens are in good
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Shaye Miller has a decent matchup for himself here at least,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: even though I know he's on the road so you
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: can't really trust him here. So again, I think Atlanta
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: is the way to look in that game in my opinion, Houston, Texas,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give out a play which is my least
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: That's the play that I'm least confident in though, and
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: you probably know what it is. You're looking at the
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: pitching match up there Minnesota at Kansas City. Man, Kansas
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: City got the win yesterday Kansas City has more to
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: play for the Minnesota does. Minnesota's out of it. A
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: wit looks like he might not play though, Bobby Witt
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: junior for the Royals, he's one of their better hitters.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: He might be out. He has back spasms, so I
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with him, so be on
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: the lookout for that. He might be out of the lineup.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: But Kansas City's offense isn't good anyway, but they did
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: win yesterday. They have more to play for as they're
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: still in the playoff Hunters Minnesota they sold off at
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: the trade deadline. They're out of it now. But it's
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Minnesota that has the more rested bullpend here. Even though
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Minnesota does not have the better bullpen, they only use
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: two relief pitchers yesterday, Kansas City used four five excuse him,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: but they had some kind of light usage for some
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: of those guys, so some of those guys probably will
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: pitch again today. So Kansas City, I mean, they do
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: still have the better bullpen. Minnesota has the somewhat better
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: offense here. Minnesota has the better starting pitcher with Joe
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Ryan on the mine, I mean, he is their ace
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: three point eight ra point nine to seven WHIP. Good
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: season for him again, a little bit better on the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: road two point nine to seventy RRA on the road.
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: He's coming off a seven inning shutout of San Diego
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts, one walk, five hits allowed. So he returned
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: to form after two pretty ugly starts against the A's
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: and at Toronto. Not really an easy task. Those are
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: two pretty good offenses too, so he came back into
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: forma I'm not ready to say that Ryan's out of
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: form or anything like that. Thirty seven to six strikeout
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: walk ratio in August four point oh one e RA.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: That's not bad. It's not great by his standards, but
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: he's still pitching all right. He's good against the Royals
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty three at bats that they're really
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: familiar with him, and they still haven't been able to
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: hit him. This includes Bobby Witt Junior in there, although
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: his numbers aren't that good against him. Twenty seven to
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: four strike out walk ratio one to eighty batting average
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: of five to twenty eight ops are the numbers that
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Ryan has posted against Kansas City. Kansas City has Stephen
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Kolek starting, so Kansas City actual he got two of
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: San Diego's pitchers. They got Bergere and Colic, and Cole
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: like I think, is the less trustworthy of the two men.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: His numbers are really hard to figure out. Three point
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: nine ninety RA this year, one point two to six whip.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: He was really bad at home seven point six two ERA,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: which in San Diego's very pitcher friendly park, that makes
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: absolutely zero sense. I don't know how that is possibly
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: the case. He did have a home start here in
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: another pitcher friendly park with Kansas City, and he did
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: pitch well. So his one start with Kansas City back
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: on August thirtieth, he held Detroit to one on run
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: in six innings, no walks, four hits, three strikeouts, so
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: he was pretty good in that game. Not a lot
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: of strikeouts, but he was effective. Minnesota is a worse
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: offense than that than that, and only Outman has ever
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: seen him before the Outlander. He's over two off of him,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts, no walks, whatever, Man Colex, So he does
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge here. So
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, and I guess this game does look like
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: an under type of game here man, I mean, if
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: you don't necessarily trust the Bullpens. Maybe a first five
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: under if you can find it at like under four
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: the total drop for me and have to eight sixty
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on the over fifty five percent
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. I don't disagree with that.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: And the money seems to be fading Minnesota. They're a
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty road favorite, eighty five percent of tickets,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: only seventy eight percent of the cash, So the money
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: seems to be coming in against Minnesota. So the professional
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: money seems to prefer cole like over Ryan basically in
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: this game go figure, but that I think kind of
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: lends itself more towards looking towards the under in this
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: game as well, So that would be the way I
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: would probably lean maybe first five innings though. San Francisco
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: is at Saint Louis. San Francisco took the first game
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: here eight to two. Uh. San Francisco, they're hot right now. Man,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: there's still I guess they were a team that looked
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: like they were out of it, and now they've won
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: five games in a row and they've won eleven of
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: the last twelve something like that. They're playing some bad
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: teams recently, though, Baltimore, Colorado. Saint Louis. They did beat
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: some good teams prior to that. They're on a roll
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: right now. They're playing like a team that's motivated. They
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: could potentially still make a playoffs, which would be ridiculous.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: San Francisco's offense is still not good. Their bullpen is
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: really good, though, so they're a much more pitcher heavy team.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: They're basically like the Texas Rangers of the National League.
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis they're they're out of it, so they don't
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot to play for here other than
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: bouncing back from getting embarrassed last night at home. Saint
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Louis has a decent bullpen. Their offense isn't really that good.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: It's been really bad since the All Star breaks. So
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: we're looking at two pretty weak offenses and two solid bullpends.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: San Francisco has the better of the two bullpens. I
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: think Saint Louis does have the better offense, but not
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: by much. Justin Verlander is pitching for the Giants. He's
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: still out there doing his thing. Four point two to
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: nine e RA one point four to three whip is
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: not good. Obviously, He's not good on the road this
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: year five point one era Lander, I mean definitely towards
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: the end of his career here, although he did get
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: ten strikeouts last time out. He had a ridiculous stat
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: line last time out. He went five innings against Baltimore,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: three HiT's allowed, no earn runs, ten strikeouts, four walks,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: and he threw one hundred and twenty one pitches, which
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think is a good sign. Man. He was pitching.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: He was thrown around one hundred pitches in most of
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: his outings, which is pretty much what you expect, even
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: though he is old now. But they ratcheted him up
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: to one hundred and twenty one. That might not be
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: a good sign, man, the fact that from out of
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: nowhere he throws that many pitches again at this old age,
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: I would worry about verland are coming into this one,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: even though I know he gave up two or fewer
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: earned runs in what is this h six of his
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: last eight outings, So he is in somewhat good form
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: right now. Three point six two ERA in August thirty
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: seven to nine strike a walk ratio. But I worry
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: about that last start man, Saint Louis. They don't have
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of guys that are familiar with him,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: though only three hitters have faced of before. But they're
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: four for six off him, with two of them runs
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: both from Gorman, two walks, no strike outs. Do with
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: that information what you will, I guess, But I mean
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: it's a small sample size, so maybe not a whole
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: lot to take away from that. But it doesn't look
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: like Verlander is in the greatest shape in this one.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would trust him. I don't trust
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Andre Polante for Saint Louis either five point three eighty
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: RA one point four to four whip. He's bad at
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: home five point nine one era at home wasn't good
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: over the past month at all, twenty five to fifteen
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio three or more walks in four
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: of the six outings eight point six seventy RA. Saint
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Louis lost all six games. That's bad. His numbers are
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: really bad against San Francisco too, and forty at bats
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: seven to three, strike a walk ratio three seventy five
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: average one thy ninety four oh ps. So this game
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: I would lean over. In this game, I don't trust
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: either starting pitcher here. The money doesn't necessarily seem to
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: be agree. We're disagreeing with it. Really, the total went
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: down a little bit from eight and a half to
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: eight and a half a juice to the under, so
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: you can get a decent number on this if you
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: want to go over. Seventy five percent of tickets on
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: the over, nine to nine percent of the cash on
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: the over. Of course, the main concern here is the
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: hitting is not that good on either team, but the
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: pitching might be so bad in this game that it
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: might happen anyway, So that would be my preference zero,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: though I would worry about the bullpens still, But if
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: the starters don't do well and then it kind of
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: cascades and then the bullpens have to use some of
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: their worst relievers, could be one of those types of games.
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of tickets, eighty two percent of the
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on San Francisco as well, up to
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty five, so the money seemingly coming in
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: on the Hudder team. With San Francisco. We will say
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Colorado just beat San Diego yesterday, so Colorado continuing this
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: series at cours Field against San Diego. They shut them
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: out three to nothing. San Diego has lost five games
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: in a row, and because the Dodgers have also lost
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I think five games in a row or maybe four
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: games in a row, san Diego has lost no ground
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: on them. There's still two games behind them. It's ridiculous.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: Both of them are playing like I asked right now.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: That does mean San Diego probably wants to try to
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: turn this around here. San Diego, they have the better offense,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: even though their offense isn't that good. Colorado's is a
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: little bit better at home though. San Diego is the
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: way better bullpen, and they're very arrested. These two relievers
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: yesterday didn't play on Thursdays, so they have a rested bullpens.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: So does Colorado. They didn't play on Thursday either, and
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: they knows one relief pitcher yesterday. But their bullpen's not good.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: San Diego, though, unfortunately for them, is rolling out Randy
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Vazquez to pitch in this game. He is not very good.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Three point nine to sixty rando, that's fine, but one
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: point three to eight whip. He puts way too many
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: guys on base. Dude. He's a little bit worse on
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: the road. Four point one to seventy RRA. But again
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think he can continue to get away with
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: the amount of walks that he gives up. It's pretty bad.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: He's not bad against Colorado though, in thirty nine at bats,
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, two walks, one seventy nine average left four
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: to fifty ops, so he's done pretty well against Colorado.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I trust him in corps field, though,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: and Colorado's going with a rookie mccaid brown on the mound,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: who is a looming mound presence. He must have some talent,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: but he has not done well so far. He kind
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: of got an easy assignment the first time out against Pittsburgh,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: didn't d well against them, and then he didn't do
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: well against the Cobs either. He hasn't been good so far.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: He has five strikeout, six walks, eight point two two ERA,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: two point zero nine whip. That's all really bad. Give
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: up seven or in runs, ten hits in seven and
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings so far, so he's not getting it
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: done yet. I know San Diego's never seen him before,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: so there is that unfamiliarity edge there, but that hasn't
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: helped him in his first two games, so I would
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: lean over in this game. But the money seems to
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: be kind of disagreeing with it. It's had eleven and
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: a half juice to the over eighty one percent of tickets,
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: only fifty three percent of the cash on the over.
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: Definitely not going to be a play of mine. My
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: bust and Red Sox are at the Arizona Diamondbacks. D
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Backs have won three in a row, even though the
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: d Backs don't really have anything left to play for
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: other than pride. I guess they are sitting at five
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: hundred though, so maybe they want to get above five hundred,
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: but they know they're not going anywhere. The Red Sox
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: is still trying to make the playoffs, even though they
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: have a bunch of injuries now, so they're probably fucked.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: Red Sox lost yesterday. Peyton totally did not do that
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: well in his second outing. I am not happy about
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: that obviously. I thought totally would do better. I thought
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: it would be a lower scoring game potentially, wasn't sure
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: which team is gonna win the game, but the Red
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Sox lost ten to five. Red Sox also did not
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: have a good bullpen game last Their bullpen did not
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: do well last night. Red Sox have the better bullpen,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: though gotta worry about maybe some injuries there. But Chris Murphy,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: they brought him back into replace Hicks, who is on
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: the injury list. No On Hicks has not been living
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: up to his potential at all. Everybody's shitting on Hicks, Sothough.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Hicks is a really good ground ball pitcher with a
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: really good barrel percentage if you look at his advanced analytics,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: He's not as bad as he's been pitching. But I
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going on with him. But Murphy gonna
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: get the job done either, man. I don't know Murphy.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: He's probably just there because it's an Irish town that
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: brought him back. I don't know. But the Red Sox
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: bullpen is still better than Arizona's though both teams used.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: Red Sox used three relievers yesterday, four from Arizona, but
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: Arizona's bullpen is trash. Red Sox bullpen is still better.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Arizona is the better offense, especially with especially with the
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Red Sox not having their full complement of batters here
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: starting pitching. Lucas Gilito is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: He's got alright numbers this year three point three eighty
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: ra one point two to three whip as they seem
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: to kind of fix what was wrong with them. He's
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: got a three point two three road ERA, which is good.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: He's giving up one or fewer earned runs and three
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: of his last four outings in five of the last seven,
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: So some good things from him. I mean, the Red
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Sox have won. What is this ten? Let me see
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: the one fourteen I'm going all the way back to.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: Is the one sixteen of his last What do we got?
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to do to count this real quick. Sixteen
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: of his last twenty outings have been wins for the
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Red Sox. But I still don't think he's as good
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: as he looks. He had a two point three to
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: nine ERA in August, but a twenty eight to seventeen
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio that's not gonna cut it. That
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: is way too many walks. That is a terrible ratio.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: So it's not all good for him. He's putting too
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: many guys on base. I do worry about him on
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: the road against a good lineup of this. Arizona hasn't
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: really seen him. The only two of their hitters have
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: ever faced him, and only Moreno has ever had a
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: hit off him two for two with a double, So
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot that we can really figure
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: out there. Gillledo does have kind of an unfamiliarity edge
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: here against Arizona, but they're a good hitting lineup man
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: and Giledo is not as good as he looks. Arizona
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: has Brandon Fott pitching. He hasn't had a good season.
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: He's better than his numbers are this season, but he
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't been that good five point three to three ERA,
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: one point three to nine WHIP. He's been way better
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: at home though, three point six six ERA, and he
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: gives up way few home runs at home for whatever reason,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: I don't understand it. But he also hasn't been good recently.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: A six point one sixty RA in August twenty four
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: to eight strike a walk ratio is alright, but he's
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: failed to go five innings in each of his last
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: two starts. He allowed ten or on runs across whatever
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: that is seven innings combined across those two against Milwaukee
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: and the Dodgers. Those are both on the road, though,
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: but he's not exactly in good form right now. Against
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox, they have sixteen at bats against him
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: four of their hitters of face and before they have
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: a five hundred average one thousand and four to thirty
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: one ohps with a Nathaniel Low home run off and
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: Low has the most experience off him and has done
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: damage off and from his Washington Nationals days. I assume
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: this game. I'm probably leaning over in this game too. Man. Yeah,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's probably my preferred approach. But
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: sixty and nulf percent of tickets on the over sixty
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash in the unders, the money's
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with me. Total's kind of just sitting at nine here.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are road favor rent for some reason dropped
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: from minus one thirty to minus one thirteen. Eighty five
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: percent is ninety four percent of the cash on them.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: But you know, the Red Sox will still be public
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: because they have the better record here. I don't love it.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: I don't love that they're public, that the money line
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: has dropped on them. I worry that the Red Sox
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: are completely fucked here. So that's my those are my thoughts.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: And then Anaheim hosting the Athletics. Anaheim, I told you
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: it was a bad spot for them, returning home from
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: a long road trip. I should have gone with that.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: I should have given that out as a play. The
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: A's did get the win yesterday, ten to four. The
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: A's have a really potent lineup. They have the better
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: line up here, better offense of the two. Their bullpen
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: is more rested too. Anaheim's bullpen is seen more usage recently.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: These are both bad bullpens, but you could argue the
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: A's have a slight bullpen edge right now with the
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: recent form, with the recent usage, I should say, but
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: the A's do have j T Gin pitching, and he's
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: not that good five point one seven, one point three
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: six whip. He's better on the road though, three point
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: three eighty R. So a lot of his bad numbers
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: have come in that bad home stadium. They have the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: Sacramento Triple A Stadium there. He's in bad over the
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: past month though, seven point two four ERA, thirty four
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: to thirteen strike a walk ratio, although four of those
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: six outings were at home. But his road starts weren't
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: really that good either. Against Anaheim, his numbers aren't good,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: but it's a small sample. Thirteen at bats five zero
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is good, but three zero way
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: to average eight forty six oh ps. That's not good,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if Gin's really gonna do that well.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: Here he's going up against yuse Kikuchi for Anaheim, who's
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: He's having a real mixed bag of a season. Three
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: point eight three era, that's good. His whip is way
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: too high, one point four to four whip. He reminds
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: you of Coodeai Senga because they're both Japanese and they
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: both walk too many guys but somehow keep their era low. Senga,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: by the way, just got sent down to the miners
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: to try to work on his shit from the Mets,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: which is crazy because he was basically unhittable early in
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: the season. But I was telling you he was walking
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: too many guys. But Kakuchi also walks too many guys.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Kakuchi is way better at home, though. The Kuchi two
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: point three r ra at home, so he does pitch
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: way better at home. His last couple outings have been awful,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: but all of his recent bad outings have all been
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: on the road. Four of his last five outdis have
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: been on the road, and those are all bad. He
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: give it four more and runs in all of them.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: But they're all road games. His last home game he
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: held Cincinnati to one ear and run in seven innings,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: so he is pitching better at home. I worry about
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: his walks overall, though. He had a twenty four to
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: ten strike a walk ratio in August. Five point five
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: to four yard ray in August not good, although again
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of road games there against Houston last time out,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: also on the road. His one start this month, he
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: give up five and runs at five and two thirds
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: six to two strike aut walk ratio is alright? Do
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: we trust him here? Maybe we do at home because
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: he has really good numbers against the A's and forty
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: at bats ten to four strike a walk ratio. Those
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: again not good. He walks again, but the rest of
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: the numbers are good. One twenty five average, five five
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: ops allowed. I do think he's the better of the
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: two pitchers here, especially him pitching at home. But the
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: money is coming in heavily against Anaheim. They're down for
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: minus one forty five to minus one eleven eighty percent
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: of tickets, only fifty six percent of the cash. The
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: money is fading Anaheim. I'm not really sure I agree, though,
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: especially in the first five innings. I might have a
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: slight lean to Anaheim here with the matchup edge with
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: the starting pitching. Anaheim is also in a spot where
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: when a team returns home from a road trip and
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: they get embarrassed, that tends to refocus them and they
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: tend to bounce back and do better in the next game.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: So you might get that out of Anaheim here. I
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: know the professional money fades Anaheim a lot, because we
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: know Anaheim they're bad. They have the worst run differential
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: in the entire American League, so they're not even as
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: good as their record would indicate, and the record's not
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: even that good. So there is all that the A's
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: have been playing better actually as of late and have
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: a really potent off so the A's aren't really as
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: bad as they look. So I think that's part of
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: the reason why the money seems to be fading Anaheim.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: But in this particular spot, I'm not really in agreement
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: with that. But it's not a play. But let's get
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: to the best bets, man, and then I will let
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: you go. Hopefully these bets are good, Hopefully you like
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: the bets, and hopefully I'm making the right decision, because
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: deciding between first five and full game. Very very difficult decision, man.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: First up is Yankees money line first five. I know
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: I don't want to I don't want to go with
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, but I think you gotta do it here.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: They're down for minus one thirty five to one twenty
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: eight on the full game money line. So maybe you
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: could look at the Yankees getting a Maybe they're getting
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: a cheaper price now. They have sixty three percent of
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: ticket seventy seven percent of the cash coming in on them.
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: I would probably agree with them full game as well.
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: The money seems to be coming in on them. This
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: is a big series and the Yankees just fell to
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: four back of Toronto again. Somebody's knocking on my door?
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: What is happening? Hold on, let me see what's happening here, guys.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: I apologize. Somebody's ringing my doorbell. Why is somebody ringing
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: my doorbell like this? Hang on, I'm in the middle
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: of a show, guys. I'm looking at my camera here.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: Hold on a second, guys, I'm gonna look and see
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: who it is. But I might have to give you.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: I might have to give you, guys. A I apologize
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: for this. I'm sorry. Hold on, I'm gonna it's somebody
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: with like a I don't know he's. This guy is
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: knocking on my door, real real strong. He's got muscles, tattoos,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: tattoo muscles. I don't know what this guy's doing. Should
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: I talk to him? I could talk to him through
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: my thing. I don't know. I just want this guy
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: to go away, man, Like, go the fuck away. Anyway.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Yankees lost yesterday seven to one. I think they have
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: the upper hand in the pitching match up here Toronto.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: They're bullpen and I know their bullpen has been bad.
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Neither bullpen is that good. Actually, I think this guy
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: is one of my neighbors, actually, but I don't know.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: He's got something in his hand. I don't know what
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the hell he's doing. Anyway, Blue Jay's really low bullpen usage,
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: which is why I don't really want to factor in
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: the Yankees bullpen here. Toronto's bullpen's been a mess recently,
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: but the Yankees bullpen is more used up right now.
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: They're not really a good bullpen either. So sorry, I'm
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: talking about this in a distracted way here, but that's
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: why I'm gonna exclude the Yankees bullpen here. So we're
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: going first five inning only here, and this is based
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: on the starting pitching matchup. Man, I think we're getting
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge of the Yankees here with Chris
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Bassett is pitching for Toronto. He's kind of fading towards
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: the end of the season here, Man, he's not really
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: as good as he looked earlier in the season. Four
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: point one ERA, one point three to three whip. He's
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: really bad on the road five point eight two ERA
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: in the road, So that's not good. He's been alright,
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: I guess throughout his last several starts and that he
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed that many runs. But he's been mediocre at best.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: And he is not good against the Yankees. One hundred
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: and fifty one at bats, forty four to sixteen strike
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio and mediocre. But two eighty five batting
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: average and eight seventy ops. I mean that is not
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: good obviously. So he gets pretty much wrecked by the Yankees.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: And he's really bad on the road, so he has
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: the worst of his home road splits here. He's going
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: up against Luis Heel, who I'm not a fan of
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: the fact that heals wild Man. He walks way too
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: many guys, but he's got a three point six to
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: eighty ray one point six whip on the season. Is
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Heray is good. His whip is not good. He hasn't
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: made too many starts yet, but he's you know what
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get out of heel Man. He's very hard
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: to hit. He walks too many guys. That's basically his deal.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: He's better at home two point three to five yrra,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: so he gets some pretty extreme home road splits in
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: our favor here. Heel Aside from his first out, which
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: he started pitching this season in August, he hadn't pitched
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: because he was coming back from injury, and after that
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: first outing, he's got at least five innings and all
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: the rest of his outings and allowed two or fewer
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: earned runs in all of them. Steven, though I know
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: his strikeout walk ratio is ugly twenty nine to nineteen.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: It's really bad and not really the type of thing
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: I would normally want to do. I think that going
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: with him in the first five innings makes sense here
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: because I'm gonna show you he has good matchup numbers
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: against Toronto, but you'll probably get him for at least
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: five innings in this game, man, I would hope. So
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: he'll get you through at least most of the way
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: through the first five. And that's another reason to only
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: go first five here is you're gonna deal with the
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Yankees bullpend pretty shortly after the fifth innings, so we'll
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: go with just the first five. Heel thirty seven at
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: bats against Toronto. Yeah, I know, the strike out walk
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: ratio is again really bad. Twelve strikeouts, fifteen walks. You
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: can't do that. You can't walk more than you strike out.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: That's ridiculous. But they haven't been able to hit him
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: hardly at all. One sixty two batting average six twenty
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: oh ps. The ops a little bit high because of
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: all the walks. But I think he has the matchup
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: edge here, man, So we will go with the Yankees
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: first five innings there. Yes, sir, I cannot confirm nor
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: deny anything about that. Next up we're gonna do. We're
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: going to the unders. Now, we're gonna go Mets Red's
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: full game under nine. I like the under in this one, man,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: and I don't know if the markets agree with me
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: on this one or not. Looks like it's not sixty
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the tickets on the over eighty eight
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. The totals dropped
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: from nine and a half to nine, but we're still
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: getting under that key number nine. Man. I was considering
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: first five innings here, which you can still probably do that,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: and under four and a half maybe, but I'm gonna
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: go full game on this just because you do get
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: the key number. I don't hate the bullpens here. The
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: bullpens are mediocre and they haven't been that used. I
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: mean the time of the year where you get bullpen expansions.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: The teams didn't play the day before yesterday, so the
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage is not that heavy on either side. Really.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: Both teams use a few guys yesterday and we're off
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: the day before that. This is a big game, I
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: mean Cincinnati, both of these teams are playing for a
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: wildcard spot right now, and Cincinnati's fading fast. They're below
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: five hundred right now. But I'm going with the under
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: and not with a side here, man. So Cincinnati, they've
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: lost three in a row, I'm not gonna care about
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: that aspect of it. They did lose yesterday five to
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: four to the Mets. I'll talk about what the money
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: is doing in a second. But for me, this is
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: about the pitching matchup man, and we're including the bullpens
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: because the bullpens are both okay bullpens and again they're
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: decently rested. But we got Joonah Toong pitching for the
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Mets here. Man he is a very talented young pitchers,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: drawing Tim Linsecam comparisons because he's not that tall, he's
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: kind of thin, and he throws really hard. Especially for
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: a small ish dude. It means he's gonna ruin his
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: back and have an early end to his career because
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: he throws with such a violent motion. He looks on
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: the almost exactly like Linsing come with his motion. He's
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: only made one start so far at the Mets, and
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: it wasn't as bad as it looked. He went five innings.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: I know the score was nineteen to nine, and it
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: bombed my under that I gave out in that game.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: But we're going back with an under in a Tong
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: game this time. Man. Tom only gave up one on
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: and run in that game, though his fielding failed him.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: There were three hundred runs squared. He had six strikeouts,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: no walks, so that was pretty good for a debut.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: I know it was against Miami and Cincinnati on the
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: road is a different store, is a hitter friendly ballpark.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is a decent offense, but they're not a great offense,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: and the Mets do have the better offense of the
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: two here, so I think Tong will do okay. And
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: he's unfamiliar to the Reds lineup, so again, he has
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: that unfamiliarity edge there against the Reds, so that's good.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: So I think he should have an upper hand early
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: in the game here, So I like that. Hopefully he
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: lasts decently into this game, but you know, if we
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: have to get the Mets bullpend for a little bit,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: I guess so be it here. Hopefully the hopefully the
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: first five doesn't wind up being correct with the full
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: game not being and Brady Singer's pitching for the Reds.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: He's been okay this year four point eighty Ray, one
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: point two to six whip. He's way better at home
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: three point one to ninety Ray at home, even though
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: it's a hitter friendly ballpark, and he's been pretty good recently,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: a two point four to one ERA over the past month,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: thirty nine to nine strike at walk ratio, the Reds
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: have actually won six of his last seven outings, with
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: the only loss being on the road at Pittsburgh. For
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, He's allowed one or fewer earned runs in
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: five of his last seven outings, So he is pitching
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: well right now. And against the Mets, he actually has
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: good numbers, even though their offense is good thirty two
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: at bats. They haven't seen that much of him because
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: he's new to the National League this year, because he
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: was on the Royals nine to two strike a walk
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: ratio two nineteen batting average five forty six ohps. So
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: I think Singer will actually do okay in this game
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: as well. So that's an under in that game next up,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: which I think might be the strongest under. But the
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: Bullpends are in such bad shape. We have to go
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: first five. There's no other option. Baltimore Dodgers are gonna
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: go under four in the first five, but you have
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: to pay a bit for that and minus one thirty.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to go under three and
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: a half, you can do it, but there's just no
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: way that you can factor the Bullpens into this. One man,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on the over now, which worries me.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: The initial move was down towards the under. It went
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: from eight and a half juice to the over to
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: eight juice to the unders. That was a decent swing there.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: It looks like the money's coming back on the over,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: but I don't agree with that. Fifty one percent of
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: tickets on the under, sixty one percent of the cash
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: on the over. Yes, it does worry me. Uh. Dodgers
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: their public seventy eight percent of tickets, ninety three percent
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. They're up from minus one
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: forty to minus one forty three on the money line,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: so the money kind of coming in on the Dodgers,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: owned by the way. In the Cincinnati and Red's game,
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: the money is heavily on the Mets, by the way,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: so Tom getting a lot of professional money there. Up
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: from minus one fifteen and minus one twenty nine. Fifty
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: one percent tickets on the Reds but eighty three percent
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the The Mets are actually getting
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: some strong market indicators on them. So do with that
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: information what you will. But anyway, back to this game
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Dodgers Baltimore, this is all about the starting pitching matchup man,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: and you cannot do anything with these bullpens. The bullpen's
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: got monstrously used yesterday. And by the way, the Dodgers
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: had to scratch Glass though I think he might be
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: heard again because Otani actually wound up making the start
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: for them yesterday and he went four innings I think,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: and then their bullpen was heavily used. They used whatever
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: that is six relief pitchers yesterday. Baltimore used five. I mean,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: not to really be outdone if that's considered to be outdone.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: And neither bullpen is really that good either. So with
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: that bullpen usage, the bullpen's being the worst of all
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: the ones that I'm gonna factor into any of these
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: games here, you gotta worry about that. So we're only
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: gonna go first five inninges here. I think that's the
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: way you have to do this one. Again, this is
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: about the starting pitching matchup here. As I said, Baltimore
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: actually won yesterday two to one. They won four games
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: in a row, oh my god, even though there were
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: return over from a road trip they want again, which
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: makes no sense. Dodgers not playing good baseball right now, man,
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: But again we're going with the under here. And one
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: of the other things about this is at least the Dodgers.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: Their offense is a little bit worse on the road
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: than it is at home, even though they obviously have
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: the better offense of these two teams. Dodgers might have
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: the slightly, but I don't know which team has the
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: better bullpen. I don't really give a shit because we're
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: not including the bullpens here again, starting pitching matchup, this
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: looks like a pitching duel man just straight up. Yamamoto
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Dodgers two point eight two ERA
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: one point oh five whip. He's even better on the
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: road two point four to SIXTYRA in the road, so
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: he has the home road splits in his favor. Past
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: month good three point five six ERA thirty four to
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk ratio. I mean he's been good
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: in virtually every start for a couple of months now.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: He's giving up three or fewer earned runs and all
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: but one outing going all the way back into late June,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: so he's on point. We know this. He's good, and
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: the Orioles have never faced before. So yea, I'm a
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: moto good talented pitcher who the Oriols are gonna have
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: to figure out and haven't seen him before. That's an
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: extra edge to him, so he should do well here,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: and he's going up against Trevor Rodgers. Has been one
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: of the biggest surprises of the year. Since joining the
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: Oriols rotation, he's been shockingly good. One point three to
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: ninety RA point eight two whip. I mean, I don't
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: think he can keep this up, but he's doing it
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: a point seven six ERA and home he's been even
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: better at home. He's allowed exactly one on run in
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: every start over the past month, all in August. His
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: team won the last five of those starts. He had
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: a one point two ninety RA forty one to six
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: strike at walk racehow basically elite numbers. And since he's
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: been in Baltimore's rotation. He gave up three on runs
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: in his second start at that horrible Tampa Bay temporary stadium,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: and aside from that, he's allowed two or fewer earned
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: runs in every other start. So he's been crazy good.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: And against the Dodgers, he has good numbers two and
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: thirty one at bats not a huge sample, eleven to
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratio so two twenty six average
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: five ninety five ops, so really good numbers against the Dodgers,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: so I think it's worth it. You got to find
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: a way to get this thing under man, so that's
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: the way to go. I really worry about doing it
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: full game though, so first five paying extra for it.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: Still think that's the way to go. And then the
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: one that worries me the most is actually this one. Houston,
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: Texas under seven to finish this off. This is a
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: pitching duel as well. In my opinion, we're gonna include
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: the bullpens just because I don't really want to go
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: under three and a half in the first five. I'm
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: hoping that the starters get us deep into this game.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: Texas is bullpen I don't worry about. I know they
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: used four relief pitchers yesterday, but they got a solid bullpen.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: They used Chris Martin, the coldplay guy, yesterday, but they've
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: had a they had the day before that off. I mean,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: they have a pretty rested bullpen and a good bullpen,
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: so that's fine. Texas has the better bullpen, Houston has
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: the better offense. Houston used a ton of their bullpen yesterday,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: though they used six of their relief pitchers yesterday, so
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: that does worry me. The Houston's bullpen usage is crazy.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: That's the one part of this that I really really
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: worry about and I don't like. But Texas their offense
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: can't hit, and they're really bad at home. I think
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: they're They have the fewest runs scored at home out
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: of any team in baseball, So that kind of counteracts
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: that a little bit. So we'll go with that. And then,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: by the way, there's a crazy stat Texas at home
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: as far as how good they're pitching is at home,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: their opponents have scored three or fewer earned runs against
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: them in Texas in seventy percent of the games at
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: Texas this year. That is crazy. Texas's opponents have scored
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: three or fewer earned runs in games at Texas seventy
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the time. That's insane. And that included last
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: night because we got the win on Texas four to three.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's just a crazy tidbit there. But a
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: lot of this is the starting pitching matchup and we're
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: hoping we get deep outings here. Hunter Brown is pitching
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: for the Astros. I think he was kind of in
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: line to pitch yesterday, although they didn't do it for
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: whatever reason. Maybe they don't want them totally wreck his arm.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: But he's having a great season two point three four
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: ERA one point oh one and whip. He's been pretty
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: good both home and away, slightly worse on the road
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: two point four two ERA, but this is a very
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park man. He's been really good over the
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: last month. One point six seventy RA, thirty three to
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: eleven strike up walk ratio. He's allowed two or fewer
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: on runs in every one of those outings. He's been good,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: including games against Boston twice at Detroit at the Red Sox.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: One of them was at the Red Sox at the Yankees.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: He's just pitching well. Man. Now, he's got a pretty
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: weak lineup he's facing here. They got eight to nine
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: of bats against him, so they're familiar with him. Texas
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: is but twenty two to six strike a walk ratio,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: two thirteen batting average allowed, five eighty nine ops so
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: Brown has done pretty well against sexast in the past.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: He's going up against the future Hall of Famer Jacob
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: de Gram, who's having another good season even at the
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: age of thirty seven. Two point six ninety IRA point
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: nine two WHIP. I guess you might have to be
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit concerned that he's wearing down because he's
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: thrown one hundred and fifty pitches and he hasn't thrown
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: that many pitches since our innings excuse me, pitches that
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be that much in one hundred and fifty at
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: thirty innings, hasn't done that a third of a pitch
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: would be weird. He hasn't done that since twenty nineteen.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that is a little bit of a concern
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: that he's, you know, ratcheting that up. But he's still
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: been good. He's really good at home two point two era.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: He doesn't appear to really be wearing down now that
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: I know. He only went five innings in his last
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: few OUTI so they're kind of limiting him a little bit.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: But Texas's bullpen is good, So I mean, I think
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: we're okay going with the full game under on this one.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: If you want to go first five, I mean that
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: is also certainly a possibility here, but you have to
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: go under three and a half, which I just don't love.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: Three point three eighty r and thirty one to seven
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio for de Gram in August, So
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: that's all pretty solid, and he's got good numbers against
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: Houston in sixty at bads seventeen to one, strike a
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: walk ratio two seventeen and average allowed six sixty three ops.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: So that's gonna do it. Man. Those are the plays here.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: One more time college football coming up really soon. Troy
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: plus thirty one. I don't think any of my plays
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: are until the three pm slate though. Eastern plus thirty one,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: Rutgers minus fourteen, Middle Tennessee plus twenty eight and a half,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech plus thirty seven and a half. Baseball Yankees
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: first five money line, Mets and Reds under the total
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: full game, Baltimore and Dodgers under the total in the
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: first five innings, and Houston Texas under the total full game.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Seems to be the better way to do that. Oh
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: and I forgot to show the market read on that,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: So let me do that real quickly and then I'll
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: get out of here. Market read on the Houston Texas
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: game real quick. Total still sitting at seven, we have
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of tickets, nineteen percent of the cash
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: on the over. That does worry me a little bit,
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: but seems like an undergame to me, and the money
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: is coming in towards Houston, which I guess makes me
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: feel a little bit better about Houston's bullpen situation. Texas
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: down for minus one twenty minus one sixteen, eighty nine
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets and fifty nine percent of the cash
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: on Texas, so the money somewhat back in Houston. Here.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: The bullpens generally are fairly good. It's just Houston's has
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: injuries right now in the usage is bit of a concern.
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: But the fact the money's coming in on Houston kind
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: of leaves me to believe you're gonna get the deeper
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: start out of Houston, and that kind of helps as
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: far as the fact they have the worst of the
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: two bullpens here. So that's gonna do it. Man. Go
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: check out the college football video that I did last night.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: Learn it Tone on Twitter, Learn it Tone on Instagram.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: Like subscribe to Better Off Debt on YouTube, Review on audio, Spotify,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: Apple whatever. Covered in yuke My Ukulele project on YouTube
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: and Patreon dot com slash learned to Toe if you
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: want to throw some support and get some bonus yuke content.
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir, everybody. Have a good day and happy Saturday.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: I'll be back tonight to talk NFL to grind Man,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: I should be making more money doing this. Peace out
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: for now, guys,