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Panthers vs. Packers TNF and Week 9 CFB Picks and Preview · Fade or Follow

• Jacob Bunce: Welcome back to Fader Follow! Okay. Grant Nonemacher: Start yelling start yelling at people. Jacob Bunce: I'm just kidding. Yes. good morning. Sorry for bursting your eardrums. welcome back. we got pretty good episode. I'd say we're gonna recap last week. Obviously, we didn't drop an episode for NFL picks, but we were tweeting them out. If you follow, hopefully you did. but we will recap. We'll talk about Thursday night football, and then we have four games for Saturday that we will also get into. Grant, why don't we start with the recap? I know one we're excited to talk about is the Indiana game, but let's start with football, maybe NFL. Grant Nonemacher: Yes. Yeah. Yes. Yeah, so going so going all the way back to last Thursday we had the Bears minus three. Caleb Williams with an absolute master class. So cash with absolute ease as well. really overall exciting game. Bunts. I don't know, I don't know about you, but I was very excited waking up that Friday morning and just everyone just glazing the bears. I was like I was Jacob Bunce: Yeah, and then I could watch NFL Sunday and not have to worry about the Bears for once. It was great. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, for sure. No, it was a beautiful weekend. Yeah, absolutely. It was it just kicked off the Friday so well. I was sitting there with my coffee, just listening to get up, just Dan Orlovsky's finally admitting he was wrong about Caleb. So that was that's Jacob Bunce: We had Luther Burton any time touchdown too, so that was nice. Grant Nonemacher: yeah, no that too. That was that was a yeah, great night. and then going into Saturday, we had LSU minus seven winner, Ole Miss plus three loser that it had life but they brought it back but couldn't quite hang on. And South Carolina minus two and a half in one of our sharpest bets of the season. That one felt real good to get through the hoop. Lenora Sellers with a play of his life. He was like two yards out of the end zone, falling back into Jacob Bunce: Mm-hmm. Grant Nonemacher: the end scoring to scoring that touchdown is beautiful. And the game of the year, Indiana minus six and a half, somehow finding his way across the goal line. The curse is over. We have hit a bet involving the Michigan Wolverines. And even even that. It was not easy because it was six to six at the end it was six to six at the end of regulation. So the fact that K Indiana covered a six and a half point spread without cover without scoring seven points in regulation is really quite Jacob Bunce: Ha ha. Grant Nonemacher: really quite something. But we do not apolog we do not apologize for winners in this house. So we take it. Isn't it? Jacob Bunce: I'd say yeah, we don't apologize. Yeah, that was nice. 'cause I remember texting you it I I can't remember when it was, when Signeti was just running the ball the entire second half. I was like, Well, we're gonna lose this fucking bet. again. And here Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Mm-hmm. Jacob Bunce: we are not being able to decide on what Michigan side to choose with or against. But yeah, we got it. So hopefully we don't have to bet Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, does it Jacob Bunce: on or against Michigan for quite some time. Grant Nonemacher: Absolutely. We don't yeah, we don't I don't feel an obligation to do it anymore now that I've won a bet. You know what I mean? I felt like I was I I felt like I had to keep chasing that dragon because I needed to Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: see one go through the hoop, but now that it's there, I'm like, fuck Michigan. but Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: I I was at the Illinois Oregon game down in Champagne that down Jacob Bunce: yeah, I forgot about that. Grant Nonemacher: in Champagne last weekend. so I didn't get to watch a lot of these action. I was kinda following along on my phone and watching highlights and things like that. I was able to get back for the evening slate, but shout out the Jacob Bunce: Good ass game to be at. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, shout out the Fighting Allini upsetting Oregon and finally s like confirmed ending their season, so that was pretty cool to be at. So yeah, it was ex it was exciting. So lots of Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Dan Lanning is gonna be fired. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. those they already fired the OC, so the you might get w yeah. He's getting close. His seat's warming up, I would say. Forty mil Jacob Bunce: I don't know how he's I mean, that thing's gotta be burning burning up. Grant Nonemacher: yeah, it's his ass is definitely on fire, but yeah. He didn't even get Jacob Bunce: Dude dude gets so far every year, or quote unquote, Grant Nonemacher: No, for sure. He w he he's been doing this. Yeah, Jacob Bunce: not even that far, but and then they get waxed. Grant Nonemacher: he's been do this year was like he's been doing this for a long time and then went boop. so so yeah, he's Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: he's taking a massive step backwards this year 'cause they're not making the playoffs, they're not going anywhere. and granted his quarterback got hurt so he might be able to lean on that depending on how mu depending on how much slack they give him for that, but the rest of that roster and Dylan Royola still should have been able to do something, you know, so No I agree. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, no, I I I think he's had more than enough chances, but yeah, I I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if he weasels his way into another year. Grant Nonemacher: 'Cause he's n yeah, he's he might weasel his way into another year or two because it's like there's like that there's that th th line of thought of If we fire him and he goes somewhere else and wins immediately, we are gonna look like the biggest assholes of all time. not like not like assholes in a rude way, but it as Jacob Bunce: I don't know. Grant Nonemacher: the biggest because he's gonna get another job because he is still a hot commodity in coaching circles. So I don't know. I agree. It's like I yeah, Jacob Bunce: Yeah, I don't see that scenario happening though. That'd be insane. Grant Nonemacher: no. If he can't win at Oregon with the amount of money and resources that it's like, yeah. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Yeah, it's like Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, you it's like it's like you're in p yeah. So anyway, but yeah, go a line I that was exciting. moving into sun Jacob Bunce: And then we go to NFL, yeah. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, and we had Falcons minus two and a half. That was sharp. real that was fading the Niners Jacob Bunce: Plus two and a half. Grant Nonemacher: and it's plus two and a half, excuse me. plus two and a half that was a sharp spot. we had the Broncos minus four and a half for our survivor and for our spread and they hit they hit that. So that was good. Shout out bone next, sixty two yard touchdown run. Just like I don't know if you saw that run. There was just nobody within twenty yards or I'm like, where's the defense? Jacob Bunce: Yeah, it made no sense. Grant Nonemacher: Like where I'm like I'm is somebody gonna come try? to tackle this man and I'm like whatever. Packers plus three and a half. What a disgusting, disgusting game. like we ended up covering by the hook on the field goal, but the Packers left 13 points of offense out on the field in that game at least and Jacob Bunce: Yeah, they look like ass. Grant Nonemacher: In the ra there is in the lion and the refs were on the Lions, brother. I don't know if you saw how much of that game you watch do it that li Jacob Bunce: I watched the whole game. Yeah, it was terrible. Grant Nonemacher: that was a terrible Yeah, it was Packers V refs. I I I will I I hate the Packers, but I felt for in that one. That one sucked. and then we had Colts in the we had a two leg teaser parlay, we had Colts plus ten and a half and Ravens plus ten and a half. Honestly, for the first two hours of that NFL Sunday, I was kinda running around doing nonsense, watching games on My phone. I honestly had no sweat about this parlay. Colt Ravens were up 13-0. Colts were up by a touchdown. I was like, that's the easiest. That's the easiest parlay ever. That's the easiest teaser. I don't even need to talk to Bunts about that. We're because we're sweating out Falcons and Bron sweating out Falcons early in the morning slate, and we're not even talking about this parlay. And then the fourth quarter comes, the third quarter comes, and Joe Burrow and the Bengals just I don't know what the fuck happened they score thirty five unanswered and the beat the Ravens by twenty, so that was sick. That was super annoying, so Jacob Bunce: Yeah, it was very annoying. Very annoying. Just sloppy sloppy ending. couldn't get finished drives. I think Huntley threw a pick too. which which obviously didn't help 'cause all we needed was a field goal after Joe Burrow threw another touchdown. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, no, it's yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Hunt Huntley Yeah, it's fine. Yeah. Hunt Huntley Jacob Bunce: but we digress. It's it's whatever. I mean, it was Grant Nonemacher: can Huntley can manage a game as long as it's in struct yeah, as long as it's like Jacob Bunce: He's great. Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: in structure and is all co going according to plan. But as I feel like as soon as the game starts getting away from him, he's fucked. Like you know what he cannot br he's he's not a guy that can go out and like bring you back into a game. If that if that makes any sense. Like he's not bringing Yeah, he's good Yeah. Jacob Bunce: no, he's good at keeping it close. He's good at close matchups. He's a great backup, Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, he's a yeah, great backup for sure. Yeah, absolutely. I agree. He's and that 'cause he's he's Yep, that was domination. No. Jacob Bunce: honestly. and then Sunday night we we what? We had Seahawks minus three. Yeah, I don't think we did a a touchdown or anything in that, which I'm glad we didn't because it was twenty to three. Grant Nonemacher: Yes. Jacob Bunce: and then Eagles plus four and a half for Monday with Barkley as a touchdown score. We got Barkley. Eagles Grant Nonemacher: So yeah. Jacob Bunce: look great the entire game. And then towards the end, Dallas just started to to sneak away a little. That pick at the end too was just brutal Grant Nonemacher: Pull away, yeah. Brutal, yeah. Jacob Bunce: by McKee. And Grant and I had a a a long shot parlay and all I needed was another touchdown throw by McKee. And it was like ten bucks to cash, like five fifty or something like that. And yeah, that drive, he was driving down and then threw a pick on the twenty yard line. so that was that was tough. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Jacob Bunce: but Grant Nonemacher: He he and the he had they had so many chances too, 'cause like there was just so many points in that first half. Like he had there had two those two brushing touchdowns earlier, one of those could have been a pass and that would have cashed. It was well, I guess you needed the Saquon touchdown to be one of them, but there's so many opportunities. It just couldn't quite get there. But Jacob Bunce: Yeah, it is what it is. Grant Nonemacher: it was a it was a fun sweat. It was a fun sweat. And that's what we do it for at the end of the day. It's just it's just the thrill of the chase. but overall Jacob Bunce: Yeah, so Grant Nonemacher: overall very profitable weekend. we went four and one on Saturday, three and one on sides on Sunday, one and on Sunday night football, and then one and one with the touchdown on Monday night football. We are now 17-4-1 in our primetime picks. And three of those count three, count them three, have been Cowboys games. So we are Jacob Bunce: Fucking hate the cowboys. Grant Nonemacher: now we are now we are now Cowboys haters because of that. Jacob Bunce: Well, I said I tweeted this out, I said we're they're kryptonite just like Michigan is, we can't pick a right side. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, for sure. Yeah, that's fucked up. Except 'cause we Jacob Bunce: So Grant Nonemacher: like it's like we like betting on them too. That's a fucked up part. We like betting their props 'cause they're fun on offense, but fuck the Cowboys. They can't win shit. They're never Jerry Jones is gonna die alone without Jerry Jones is gonna Jerry Jones is gonna die without another lone bar. Jacob Bunce: Probably. Grant Nonemacher: yeah, probably. No, that was a joke, but also I'm not lying. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, he's probably not gonna win another one. all right, let's get into Thursday night. We have Green Bay, we have Carolina. Green Bay is favored three and a half. it's in Lambo. the Panthers just got absolutely embarrassed by Tampa Bay too. what was that forty three to thirteen? Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Dude, you wanna hear the cra craziest set I saw? P Baker Jacob Bunce: What? Grant Nonemacher: was seven for eleven for sixty-four yards and then won by thirty. He threw for six No. It's crazy. Jacob Bunce: That's insane actually. That doesn't make any sense. Grant Nonemacher: No, it's absolutely obscene. Like th they ran the ball down their throat and out their ass. Like it was cr like I I every it was so z Jacob Bunce: Yeah, it was gross. I I felt I felt it was hard to watch that game. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, no, I was nasty. Jacob Bunce: but yeah, I think honestly, Grant and I were thinking about this, and we've been taking a lot of the underdogs in these primetime matchups, which they've been paying a lot of dividends. but I just don't know if I have it in me to take the Panthers in this spot. it's three and a half points. It's in Lambo. Carolina just got absolutely smoked by Tampa. And then they're traveling to Green Bay on a short week. It's like I don't love that spot for the Panthers whatsoever. and the biggest matchup I think in this game, and Grant, you mentioned this too, is is the run game. Carolina has one of the worst run defenses in football. Josh Jacobs is back. And I think if if there's a game where Green Bay gets their run game back or, you know, s gets that spark, because right now it's pretty shit, it's it's it's this Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, their run game has been shit all year. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: one. So I think that it, you know. It might be close in the beginning, but I think Packers find a way to to pull away. I think they win by touchdown or more. so with that we're taking Green Bay. Grant Nonemacher: Yep, I'll I'll keep my analysis quick 'cause I totally agree with everything you just say you just said. I think the only piece of analysis I have to add is we just talk we talked about how gross that pat that Lions game was and how badly Green Bay got screwed out of that game. I think they're gonna come in pissed off and have some bad intentions in this game and they're gonna they're gonna get right against this p p this Carolina side and Josh Jacobs is gonna come back y that was his first game back last week. He still scored a touchdown. He looked pretty decent. He's fully b this is his full first like th the he's like, Okay, I'm reacclimated now. Let's go and Green Bay Green Bay I'm not a big they need this game guy, 'cause technically both teams do, but Green Bay needs this game to keep up in the N F C North. So, I think this is this might be a blowout in Green Bay's favor. I'm not a hundred I I would say I but I'm willing to definitely Jacob Bunce: Yeah, we'll see. Grant Nonemacher: lay definitely willing to lay the three and a half, though, for sure. All right. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: moving into Saturday. Jacob Bunce: Well we have real quick real quick before Saturday. we do have a first touchdown score. So last week we wanted to take Watson. and we were kind of doing like a mental bet that he was gonna score and he didn't. So because of that, not only are we gonna think he scores, we're gonna think he scores the first touchdown. So Christian Watson, first touchdown. we may add another prop. I don't know. but stay tuned. But yeah, Packers minus three and a half, Christian Watson, first touchdown. All right, Saturday. Grant Nonemacher: Yes. Saturday. this is the biggest sucker Jacob Bunce: Ohio State minus six and a half at USC. Grant Nonemacher: line of all time. This is the Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: my god. Like this l I saw this line, I'm like what? Like did I I get Julian Saiyan's out, but do you notice still how loaded the rest of this Ohio State roster is? Like you still have Jeremiah Smith, you still have three running backs, you still have an elite defense. Like the this line and Jacob Bunce: Yeah. And it's not like USCs look that great anyway. Grant Nonemacher: no. USC's coming off getting waxed by Wisconsin. I and the the I I Lincoln Riley has not impressed me this year. J Jaden Mayava's not been that guy. and OSC was just as OSU is just as desperate. Jacob Bunce: Bro, bro, UFC rushed for negative 18 yards against Wisconsin. My God. Grant Nonemacher: It I know, 'cause the sa yeah. That's the f because the sacks count as negative rushing yards, so it's it's eight all three. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, dude. It's like, are we like we d Ohio State doesn't have the the best running game in in college football. I'll be the first one to admit it, but they do have two dogs, Jacoby Jackson and Bo Jackson. They also have a great Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Jacob Bunce: third stringer, Legend Bay, which I don't know why they never use him, maybe to keep him fresh for whatever fucking reason. But yeah, I Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Jacob Bunce: just I just honestly this game comes down to I don't know how USC can keep up with Ohio State physically. Grant Nonemacher: No, same. Jacob Bunce: as long as Luke Fahy and and and St. Clair can can get in there, make some good throws, their run game gets started, like, yeah, I'll I'll lay the six and a half all fucking day. the only argument here is it's at USC, I believe. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Absolutely. I mhm. Yeah. But if you're the dude, the Coliseum's been dead all year though. If you remember that first game of the season, there were no fans. they're like they are not filling out that stadium whatsoever. So I'm not I'm not as concerned about the road any sort of road home field yeah. Yeah, Jacob Bunce: Yeah. No me neither. That's that's why I said I like that was the only thing you could put against it, but I don't know. Grant Nonemacher: if if it was anywhere besides LA I'd I'd agree. If it was in like Jacob Bunce: I'm not buying it. Grant Nonemacher: F even Oregon, I would be more concerned. it like USC does not scare me in terms of a road venue. Okay. Jacob Bunce: No. I well that game's pretty straightforward. next we got Arizona plus three and a half at Texas Tech, Grant go ahead. This is a noon kickoff. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Yeah. So this game is big this is a massive showdown and this is a massive game in the Big Twelve in terms of their conference championship hopes. Jacob Bunce: Mm-hmm. Grant Nonemacher: and so then so r and Texas Tech has kind of came into this season with a massive expectations, like hu like really Re they had they had put the so mu there was so much NIL money into this roster. This they had the we had we've talked about them a few times on the show already, but you kinda know the so you kinda know the story. last week they had a really inexplicable loss to a Cincinnati team that they had no business losing to as thirteenth point favorites. Are and then Arizona coming off a decent win and they're now Arizona's now getting three and a half in this spot and I just have n really not been impressed with this Texas Tech group. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, me neither. Grant Nonemacher: And and and so I'm we're gonna take I don't think even if they win it, they're gonna win it close. I think Arizona's shown that they can hang with anyone to this season and I think the Fita really he's like a six year vet at this point. He was Ted Rock McMillan's quarterback in the NFL. Jacob Bunce: He's been dealing too. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, so I like Arizona keeping this one close and staying alive in the Big Twelve Conference Championship race. Full disclosure, I do have a future on Texas Tech, so this is kind of me hedging myself out of my own Jacob Bunce: Yeah. another really stat that you like to see too, especially in these close matchups like this, is Arizona is averaging over three hundred yards passing a game and they're converting about fifty five percent of its third downs. Like, that's fucking massive. Yeah, Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, that's great. That's great offense. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: that's that's massive. And, you know, everyone's probably talking about how Texas Tech has a twelve game, you know, home winning streak and you know, rightfully so to to to chat about, but again, we don't need Arizona to win this game. We just need them not to lose by four. So I do I do like this Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. Absolutely. The yeah the the Jacob Bunce: this bet. It's probably one of my favorites of the week. The other ones that we'll get into, it's kinda like we're nutting up a bit. Georgia minus eleven and a half versus Florida. this is a three thirty kickoff. at the end of the day, I think we're just taking Georgia minus eleven and a half. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah. It's Jacob Bunce: I know it's rivalry. I know Florida can score, but I think I'm just trusting Kirby Smart more coaching off a bye week and a loss. They average Grant Nonemacher: Yes. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: 43 points a game, and giving up just less than 16 is crazy. obviously Grant Nonemacher: Yep, absolutely. Jacob Bunce: Florida has been on the other end, they've been giving up over 28 points per game. so I think that's a pretty big mismatch. You know, I I expect Georgia to kind of come out and remind everybody who they are. and you know, Gunnar Stockton, I I think he has a big bounce back week. last week was kind of an anomaly. Yeah, he played really, really bad. He looked like shit. Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, 'cause he played really he played really bad. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I yeah. And I think also just like I think Jacob Bunce: But you gotta look like shit to lose to fucking Auburn, so it makes sense. Grant Nonemacher: yeah, no, absolutely. No, for sure. It's like I yeah, last week really c caught me like by surprise. I did not foresee Georgia losing that game by any stretch. Like that was one of those games So And I but I at the same time I watched that game, I did not feel like I like, George is ass. I like I didn't feel like George is not actually the best team in the country. They just had some really untimely mistakes that they don't normally make. So I really still like them in this spot. I like, like you said, Kirby off a loss, Kirby off a buy. And also f yeah, stew stewing on it. Yeah. Jacob Bunce: Dude, he's been sitting there for two weeks thinking about that game. Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: And also Florida. And also Florida, like they were a nice story early in the earlier in the season, but Jaden Ball, like, he Jacob Bunce: dying off. Grant Nonemacher: is kinda yeah, they're kind of tailing off a little bit. Aaron Philo's banged up still. There's and their backup quarterback does nothing dis does nothing for me. So I think you just lay the number here with Georgia and let them get right against it. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. all right. Well that brings us to the last game. We're gonna cover it's a twelve forty-five Eastern kickoff. we have Ole Miss versus Auburn. what was the spread in this one? Ole Miss minus thirteen and a half, over under fifty Grant Nonemacher: A thirteen and a half. Thirteen and a half. Jacob Bunce: seven and a half. we were kind of going back and forth on this where you know, Auburn coming off a pretty big game and then obviously getting smoked to LSU. Ole Miss playing pretty good, but I guess the only reason they really came back against Texas was because Arch Manning is Arch Manning. I think there's going to be Grant Nonemacher: Yeah, Archman led them back in that game. Jacob Bunce: points, but we're leaning more points on one side and that's Ole Miss's side. So we're actually gonna take the team total over thirty-four and a half. Grant Nonemacher: Yes. I I love this pick. I think Ole Miss coming out to get their lick back. I think there is gonna be b Byron Brown and Auburn's pace really lends itself to an over. and I do th I would initially lean to Ole Miss just laying the number, but something about this game says Ulmis's defense is not impressed me, and Kyron Lacey is also out for this game. So they're gonna Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: have to they're gonna have to start slinging it a little bit to their receivers. And when they when Chambliss has to get out and throw, that usually yields points, and they're not gonna be able to sit back and run the ball, kind of s like slow the game down, they're gonna have to press the pace. And I just think this is gonna be a game where Auburn is gonna have to outscore. I mean Ole Miss is gonna have to I have to outscore Auburn and I think thirty four and a half is a really sharp number here. So yeah, sh go points. and like Ole like I just wanna make one more comment about that Ole Miss Texas game, 'cause that game like blew my mind 'cause it was like Arch like was playing out of his mind for the first half and then just played like absolute dog shit in the second half to let them back in the game and then slam like what a cra what a crazy roller coaster of a game to be on for a quarterback. Jacob Bunce: That's insane, dude. Grant Nonemacher: It's like so I I don't know, like I if I'm if I'm an NFL draft room and I'm like watching Arch play football right now. I'm like, how can you tr how can you lean on him in that spot? I don't know. But yeah, Ole Miss team total thirty four team total over thirty-four and a half. this this one's gonna be a shootout, I think. Or a blowout. Jacob Bunce: Yeah. Grant Nonemacher: Or a blowout. I'm not sure, but I just know that old miss gonna be scoring. Jacob Bunce: Yeah, I think so too. all right, and then we'll drop another episode for Sunday. picks maybe tomorrow or Saturday, but definitely before Sunday. we'll tweet all these out. So appreciate y'all tuning in. like the page, like the video, subscribe, follow us on social medias. And yeah, we'll see you on the other side of this Panthers Grant Nonemacher: Love y'all. Jacob Bunce: Packers game. So thanks for tuning in and we'll talk talk to you later. Grant Nonemacher: Sir.