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China Just Defied U.S. Sanctions | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

0:02
Speaker 1: The legend. Carl Jah. How are you doing, Carl, You're
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Speaker 1: doing okay?
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Speaker 2: Man?
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Speaker 3: Hi Jamarr are you sir? Good to see you.
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Speaker 2: I am doing I'm doing fine. I'm doing better that
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Speaker 2: you're joining me, and I'm happy that you're joining me.
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Speaker 2: You are the person I wanted to talk to today. In fact,
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Speaker 2: I thought to myself, I was like, I wonder if
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Speaker 2: Carl can talk about this. So thank you for joining me.
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Speaker 2: I'm glad that you're here. And just so the audience know,
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Speaker 2: Carl Jah he is classes. Carl Jah his hosts of
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Speaker 2: Silk and Still, a podcast focused on China surrounding regions
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Speaker 2: and their history, culture, and politics. You can follow Carl
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Speaker 2: on Twitter at Carl Jah. You can follow this podcast
0:44
Speaker 2: on Twitter at Steel silk In, and of course subscribe
0:48
Speaker 2: and support this podcast at patreon dot com slash silk
0:51
Speaker 2: and Steal.
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Speaker 1: Carl.
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Speaker 2: I named this China changes the world or shook the world,
0:59
Speaker 2: or some to death. The reason I named it that
1:02
Speaker 2: is because under normal circumstances, you get the United States
1:06
Speaker 2: saying we're going applast sanctions, and the country that they
1:09
Speaker 2: say that too, whether beg Beseech, the King, God, Emperor Trump,
1:17
Speaker 2: the sanctu belief.
1:19
Speaker 1: China didn't do that.
1:20
Speaker 2: When Trump might have said, well, we're putting sanctions on
1:23
Speaker 2: Chinese Link or Chinese companies that are getting Russia oil.
1:27
Speaker 2: China's response to this was effectively the past sanctions of
1:31
Speaker 2: their own. It's China's response a former legal order declaring
1:36
Speaker 2: those sanctions no avoid inside China and prohibiting Chinese companies
1:42
Speaker 2: from acting on those sanctions. Break this down for us,
1:47
Speaker 2: what's going on with us?
1:49
Speaker 1: And why is this? Or do you think I'm right
1:51
Speaker 1: that this change?
1:53
Speaker 2: So?
1:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean so, I saw a ridiculous Bloomberg headline
1:58
Speaker 3: just before coming to your show. The headline says, China's
2:02
Speaker 3: defiance against US sanction triggers confrontation. I'm like, wait, who
2:09
Speaker 3: is triggering the confrontation? This is the United States placing
2:14
Speaker 3: sanctioned against Chinese refineries, like Bloomberg is is you know again,
2:20
Speaker 3: is posing this as that is a norm that you know?
2:24
Speaker 3: That's le's me just what United States does? Just sanction
2:27
Speaker 3: everybody and you should just accept it. But no, China says, no,
2:30
Speaker 3: We're not gonna accept that. This is a It's a
2:34
Speaker 3: pretty big deal because the United States sanctioned Hondi uh
2:38
Speaker 3: Petrochemical Group, which is one of the large, one of
2:42
Speaker 3: the largest private independent refineries. You know, this is not
2:47
Speaker 3: some small uh you know, tea pot refinery that you
2:51
Speaker 3: know fly under the radar. You know, I understand why
2:55
Speaker 3: US did it because, uh, the majority of the first
2:59
Speaker 3: you have to understand how US sanction works. The US
3:03
Speaker 3: sanction says, uh, they're gonna sanction, not just bye bye.
3:09
Speaker 3: By the US financial sanction against a company is they
3:14
Speaker 3: will prohibit any other business from doing that business with
3:20
Speaker 3: that company. If the if you do business with the
3:24
Speaker 3: sanctioned company, and if you have any dealing in either
3:28
Speaker 3: US dollars or you have uh like business in the
3:32
Speaker 3: United States, then that will place you uh you know
3:38
Speaker 3: that that that will make you liable to be sanctioned
3:42
Speaker 3: by by the United States. So this is what so
3:45
Speaker 3: so what US essentially is asking, it's asking all the
3:49
Speaker 3: Chinese businesses in China not to do business with the
3:54
Speaker 3: Chinese refinery. This is the extra territorial reality of the
3:59
Speaker 3: U s sanction. It's requiring companies in outside the United
4:04
Speaker 3: States to comply with its own laws. China China have
4:09
Speaker 3: been up to this point. Humor in US, you know,
4:12
Speaker 3: let's remember Chinese. Uh even though China purchased ninety percent
4:17
Speaker 3: of running oil, most of that purchase was again done
4:21
Speaker 3: by independent refineries, are not done by Chinese state backed companies.
4:26
Speaker 3: The Chinese, like Chinese has have like three major oil
4:30
Speaker 3: state owned oil companies, but they made they mostly stayed
4:34
Speaker 3: away from purchasing Ranian cup because they have a lot
4:38
Speaker 3: of investment and interest overseas and a lot of that
4:43
Speaker 3: those businesses require US dollars, you know, so they don't
4:47
Speaker 3: want to get in trouble with the US Treasury Department
4:50
Speaker 3: by purchasing Uranian oil themselves. That's why it's a smaller
4:56
Speaker 3: independent Chinese private refinery that's part buy you running oil
5:01
Speaker 3: because you know, fifteen percent discount off the market price
5:06
Speaker 3: was good enough incentive for them. And most of the
5:10
Speaker 3: smaller independent refinery they don't have oversea exposure. They sell
5:14
Speaker 3: mostly into the Chinese domestic market, so they thought they could,
5:19
Speaker 3: you know, take that risk. But Hundley is different. Hunley
5:23
Speaker 3: is one of the bigger independent companies and they you know,
5:28
Speaker 3: they they make up you know, they make a pretty
5:34
Speaker 3: big part of the local economy in the city of Dad.
5:37
Speaker 3: Yet so China says no, no, no, you you don't
5:41
Speaker 3: get to do this. It's not the Opium War era anymore,
5:45
Speaker 3: where you can come here and dictate to the Chinese
5:47
Speaker 3: what they can do on their own soil. So this
5:52
Speaker 3: time the Chinese government stepped in and says, no, Chinese
5:56
Speaker 3: companies will comply with US sanction. Uh, like, we will
6:01
Speaker 3: not allow you to do that. You will continue to
6:04
Speaker 3: do business with Honey Group. You know you, we are
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Speaker 3: banning you from complying with this U S sanction. You
6:12
Speaker 3: know before, the United Chinese government has never done that
6:16
Speaker 3: because you know before, China has always been very careful
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Speaker 3: not to you know, trigger a confrontation, trigger a confrontation
6:26
Speaker 3: with the United States.
6:28
Speaker 1: Uh.
6:28
Speaker 3: But now we're at the point where, uh, you know,
6:33
Speaker 3: China says, you know what, Okay, gloves are off. Gloves
6:36
Speaker 3: are off if you if you want to, if you
6:41
Speaker 3: may force us, We're gonna show you who is really
6:45
Speaker 3: the most powerful economy in the world. This happened during
6:48
Speaker 3: the Tariff War, by the way, and now it's happening again.
6:52
Speaker 3: Now China will be more and more comfortable to do
6:56
Speaker 3: to the United States what United States traditionally is doing
6:59
Speaker 3: to other countries. Uh, you know this is this is
7:03
Speaker 3: China had the dominant dominance over the rear earth supply
7:07
Speaker 3: chain for decades, for decades, and China have not weaponized
7:13
Speaker 3: that until you know, Trump forced China's hands. China says, okay,
7:20
Speaker 3: you forced us to do this. Sorry, no more rare
7:22
Speaker 3: earth for your military industrial complex. And this is also why, uh,
7:27
Speaker 3: I think the latest sanctioned against the Chinese refinery is
7:34
Speaker 3: the Trumps. This is a typical Trump's heart ball negotiation tactic. Right.
7:38
Speaker 3: You know you talked about this art of deal. I'll
7:41
Speaker 3: just raise my demand sky high and then I'll force
7:44
Speaker 3: them to come to my turns. Trump is heading over
7:47
Speaker 3: to China in a week. I think that that that
7:51
Speaker 3: is going to happen. You know, before on the show,
7:53
Speaker 3: I said, way, China hasn't confirmed the days yet, but
7:55
Speaker 3: now we have seen multiple US Air Force military transport
8:02
Speaker 3: planes fly into Beijing to offload equipment that's probably in
8:06
Speaker 3: preparation for Trump's visits. So I think the visit is
8:09
Speaker 3: gonna happen. And Trump right now is just positioning himself
8:15
Speaker 3: for the hardball negotiation with Hi. Him pain say okay,
8:20
Speaker 3: you know, maybe we can't we can take off those
8:22
Speaker 3: sanctions on the US refineries if you give us rare earth,
8:26
Speaker 3: but I don't think China will buy uh. And to
8:30
Speaker 3: make it even more ridiculous, right after Scott best And
8:33
Speaker 3: plays sanctions against the Chinese refinery, Scott best And today
8:37
Speaker 3: just says we're asking China to help us on block
8:42
Speaker 3: the straight our holmost. It's like, look, if you're begging
8:49
Speaker 3: for help, at least you should know how to beg respectfully.
8:57
Speaker 1: Yeah.
8:57
Speaker 3: But instead got best And says, oh, you're wrong, heads
9:03
Speaker 3: a big being the biggest sponsor of terrorism for the
9:06
Speaker 3: last forty seven years and China, by purchasing ninety percent
9:10
Speaker 3: of Iranian oil is the big sponsor of the Uranian terrorism. Well,
9:14
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, that's not how you beg for help. What
9:17
Speaker 3: did you want to do? You want to unblock what?
9:24
Speaker 2: That's not how you beg for help big respectfully, buddy,
9:26
Speaker 2: That's not how you do it.
9:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, the US is not.
9:31
Speaker 2: It's knees are not a custom, you know, to the
9:35
Speaker 2: begging position.
9:37
Speaker 3: Let's need to learn they need to learn how to
9:40
Speaker 3: perform kowtow right.
9:45
Speaker 2: I'm curious what is the consequence, Like does this extend
9:49
Speaker 2: the companies that let's say, aren't US companies but are
9:53
Speaker 2: working in China, like meaning how far is China's eat
9:59
Speaker 2: it go? Is it just Chinese companies or is it
10:03
Speaker 2: the companies.
10:03
Speaker 3: Own any and so so so this similar is this
10:07
Speaker 3: will be any companies that operate in China or have
10:11
Speaker 3: business in China. This is this is what happened with
10:14
Speaker 3: the Panama deal. So Pana. So the Hong Kong company
10:19
Speaker 3: Hutchinson WANMPA, owned by the Hong Kong billionaire the Kaitishin,
10:23
Speaker 3: had acquired the rights to operate two Panamanian ports on
10:28
Speaker 3: the either side of Panama Canals since nineteen ninety seven.
10:32
Speaker 3: Since since since the nineteen nineties, and and uh, you know,
10:37
Speaker 3: the US right wing neo counts has been complaining this
10:42
Speaker 3: is China's have a strategic choke hold on the United States.
10:46
Speaker 3: They've been crying about this for a long time until
10:49
Speaker 3: Trump took the decision to apply direct pressure on Panamanian government.
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Speaker 3: So government of Panama they cited some bogush national security
11:00
Speaker 3: concern and they seize those two ports from the Hong
11:03
Speaker 3: Kong company. Before the Hong Kong company had signed the
11:07
Speaker 3: contract to operate this this port for another twenty years,
11:11
Speaker 3: and but but but the Panamanian government terminated the contract
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Speaker 3: seize the control of the ports, you know, because they're
11:19
Speaker 3: doing the bidding of the United States, and China says,
11:22
Speaker 3: you know what, any shipping companies that that's any any
11:28
Speaker 3: of these port legiti operators that looking to take over
11:34
Speaker 3: those two ports, We're gonna sanction your ass, you know,
11:37
Speaker 3: like your Panama because Panama itself he has no it
11:42
Speaker 3: does just not have the capacity to operate the ports itself.
11:45
Speaker 3: So you will have to ask some other foreign operators
11:48
Speaker 3: to take over. But China already you know, warn other
11:52
Speaker 3: uh foreign ports operator. You know what, if you're going
11:56
Speaker 3: to take those two ports, We're going to sanction your ass.
11:59
Speaker 3: That means all you're shipping. You know, if you have
12:02
Speaker 3: any business with China, forget about it. You know, you
12:06
Speaker 3: can forget about doing business in China. So do you
12:10
Speaker 3: think about it? Do you really want to take those supports?
12:13
Speaker 3: So this is what Marco Rubio has been complaining about
12:17
Speaker 3: his Twitter Twitter saying, oh, you know, the sovereignty of
12:22
Speaker 3: America hemisphere, of the Western hemisphere is very important. We
12:28
Speaker 3: stand in solidarity with Manian government against coercion by the
12:33
Speaker 3: Chinese government. Well, I replied to him, like, what are
12:37
Speaker 3: you going to do a little man? What what what
12:39
Speaker 3: are you gonna do? This is, you know, China is
12:42
Speaker 3: going to show United States who really is the world's
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Speaker 3: largest economy, who is really the most important and most
12:50
Speaker 3: powerful economy in the world. You know, these these these
12:53
Speaker 3: not goheads in Washington needs to be made to understand
12:57
Speaker 3: they they really think that you You know, Scott Bessen
13:02
Speaker 3: said this during the tariff war. He said, well, China
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Speaker 3: is a producer. We are the consumer, so we have
13:08
Speaker 3: the power over them. They depend on us to buy
13:12
Speaker 3: their goods. Well, apparently that's not the case. The Chinese
13:15
Speaker 3: exports has been soaring, you know, China. Chinese trade surplus
13:19
Speaker 3: is now like one point five one point five trillion dollars.
13:24
Speaker 3: You know, even after their trade with United States has
13:27
Speaker 3: gone down, they just increased trade with the rest of
13:29
Speaker 3: the world. China does not need United States. But guess what.
13:35
Speaker 3: Eighty percent of the antibiotics in US is still produced
13:38
Speaker 3: in China. And US military industrial complex can even the
13:43
Speaker 3: couple from the Chinese supply chain because you don't make
13:46
Speaker 3: anything in the United States anymore. It's so pathetic. The
13:50
Speaker 3: US Navy is now planning to build ritual fits or
13:54
Speaker 3: worship in Korea and Japan. You know, this is the
13:58
Speaker 3: US is military industry complex giving up a MAADI in America. Uh,
14:04
Speaker 3: you know, just because US has just been so hollow out,
14:08
Speaker 3: they given the military natrial complets, gave it, give up.
14:11
Speaker 3: Say okay, that just moved to build worships in Japan
14:14
Speaker 3: and Korea where it's cheaper. You know, let's just off
14:17
Speaker 3: source everything.
14:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's yeah.
14:23
Speaker 2: I'm one of those people that believe you don't suppose
14:25
Speaker 2: military stuff because you need an internal supply line just
14:29
Speaker 2: in case you actually go to war. Let alone the
14:32
Speaker 2: supplant line with the country that you're agitating the gifts
14:35
Speaker 2: as if you were going to war with them. It's amazing.
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Speaker 2: And there's something else that's interesting. Trump is going to well, wait,
14:44
Speaker 2: one more thing on this. I would have write the
14:46
Speaker 2: same all right, one more thing on this.
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Speaker 1: Four.
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Speaker 2: From the standpoint of China, why now, like, why is
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Speaker 2: it that they decided to put their foot in the
14:57
Speaker 2: ground now.
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Speaker 3: China Up to twenty sixteen, China has been trying to
15:04
Speaker 3: be accommodating to the United States. Right. Chi Jinping has
15:07
Speaker 3: said many times the world is large enough for both
15:12
Speaker 3: US and China to coexist. But Washington don't believe that.
15:17
Speaker 3: These guys believe in zero sum. You know, like you
15:21
Speaker 3: are either you either are bitch or they don't believe
15:29
Speaker 3: in equality. Right, they do not believe equality. They don't
15:33
Speaker 3: believe in partnership. They only believe like the master slave relationship.
15:39
Speaker 3: China just had enough, like you know what, like we
15:42
Speaker 3: wanted to work with you. We always hold our door open.
15:46
Speaker 3: But you are being a petulan child. What happened to
15:50
Speaker 3: petulan child? Petulant child gets spanked? You know, it's time
15:54
Speaker 3: to spank the petulan child. Spank some sense. I fully
15:58
Speaker 3: believe in spanking. I mean, I'm I have not spanked
16:02
Speaker 3: my my my child yet, but I I I agree
16:05
Speaker 3: with the principle of it. I think they the children
16:08
Speaker 3: should be disciplined. Right now, United States is like this, uh,
16:12
Speaker 3: this toddler with with with a lot of still a
16:15
Speaker 3: lot of power. That's freaking have the the international stage.
16:19
Speaker 3: It needs to be brought in control. And China is
16:24
Speaker 3: you know, China didn't want to do this, but but
16:27
Speaker 3: now it's really forced by the United States to assert itself.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, a title would a raisor blade. I think that's
16:35
Speaker 2: what hers matter describe it a toddle with a razor
16:37
Speaker 2: blade or toddled with a gun or something like that.
16:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's more American.
16:46
Speaker 1: It's not a prison, it's not a toddle with the gun.
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Speaker 1: So pursue it to that.
16:54
Speaker 2: With the sanctions that China effectively said, look, we're going
16:56
Speaker 2: to back the Chinese companies.
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Speaker 1: Don't mess without companies. This is extra territorial provisions that
17:04
Speaker 1: the US is trying to run. What about boats, I mean,
17:08
Speaker 1: does the.
17:08
Speaker 2: Same thing true hold true for Irani in the world
17:11
Speaker 2: that's on tankers. Will China also back those tankers?
17:15
Speaker 1: And if so, how.
17:18
Speaker 3: Now that's that's more interesting question because right now United
17:22
Speaker 3: States blockade has mostly targeted Iranian own Uranian flag tankers
17:29
Speaker 3: or or those those tag those so called shadow fleet
17:33
Speaker 3: tankers that's unflagged or have expired ship registration, which under
17:40
Speaker 3: unclass the u n Law of the Sea that you know,
17:44
Speaker 3: any any nation could seize a UN flag ship, even
17:49
Speaker 3: though United States ever actually ratify on CLAUS. But anyway,
17:54
Speaker 3: right now US Navy is playing a cat and mouse
17:58
Speaker 3: game with the Uranian anchors coming out because the Uranian tankers.
18:03
Speaker 3: What they do now, They when they sail out of
18:05
Speaker 3: the street oh Hermus, they immediately hug the coastline of
18:11
Speaker 3: first Iran and then Pakistan and India. They stay within
18:16
Speaker 3: the territorial water of Pakistan India, which is like twelve
18:20
Speaker 3: knartical miles from the coast. And because the United States
18:24
Speaker 3: at this point they don't want to so blatantly violating
18:30
Speaker 3: territorial water of Pakistan India yet they have like stayed off,
18:35
Speaker 3: so they wait until this Iranian tankers sail between the
18:39
Speaker 3: gag the gap between India and Sri Lanka, there was
18:43
Speaker 3: an area of open water, you know, like for for
18:48
Speaker 3: Iranian tank to exit India's territorial water before he enters
18:52
Speaker 3: into SyRI Lankan territorial water or or after you leave
18:56
Speaker 3: the Syrian tank Uh, there's a huge open sea between
19:00
Speaker 3: Sri Lanka and the Street Malacca for example. That is
19:05
Speaker 3: where US Navy is doing its interdiction. Now I have
19:10
Speaker 3: been thinking about this. It's interesting because a lot of
19:14
Speaker 3: the Uranian tankers are ultimate destination is South China. See
19:18
Speaker 3: because most of the Uranian oil is going to China anyway.
19:21
Speaker 3: And and and if you see the Uranian tankers that
19:25
Speaker 3: have made before. You know, they have made the trip
19:29
Speaker 3: before the American blockade. They would sell through the Strait
19:32
Speaker 3: of Malacca to the east side of the Straight Malaki
19:35
Speaker 3: into the South China Sea, where they offload their oil
19:39
Speaker 3: into a different tanker. And those tankers then take those
19:43
Speaker 3: oil to China and market it under Malaysian oil.
19:48
Speaker 2: Uh.
19:48
Speaker 3: You know, this is this is another way to get
19:50
Speaker 3: around the US sanction. Uh. And this is why if
19:53
Speaker 3: you look at the official data for Chinese import from
19:58
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, Uh, you know, Malaysia makes up thirteen
20:02
Speaker 3: percent of China's oil imports and in twenty twenty five
20:08
Speaker 3: that was eleven percent. So, but Malaysia itself is an
20:12
Speaker 3: oil producing country. But Malaysia doesn't produce that much oil.
20:15
Speaker 3: You know. Most of the so called Malaysian oil is
20:17
Speaker 3: actually rebranded Iranian oil or Venezuelan oil. And and so
20:24
Speaker 3: that now the question is why did why is US
20:28
Speaker 3: doing this cat and mouse game in the Indian Ocean
20:31
Speaker 3: when they could have just blockade the Strait of Malacca.
20:34
Speaker 3: It's a lot more efficient because Uranian tanker will have
20:37
Speaker 3: come come around straight of Malacca anyway, and straight of
20:40
Speaker 3: Malacca is the one choke point the US Navy has
20:44
Speaker 3: been saying they want to block and choke off China's
20:47
Speaker 3: energies by four decades, right, why don't they do it there? Well,
20:51
Speaker 3: I thought about it. I think that my my gas my,
20:55
Speaker 3: this is just my educated guess is because if US
20:59
Speaker 3: Navy were to do a blockade on straight Malacca, that's
21:02
Speaker 3: going to cause widespread panic in the financial market over
21:06
Speaker 3: the world because you know, straight Malaca is used by everybody.
21:12
Speaker 3: Yase in East Asia there's Japan, Korea, Philippines, all the
21:17
Speaker 3: Southeast Asian nations. Uh uh, you know, and and and
21:22
Speaker 3: and you know, even if US Navy were just there
21:25
Speaker 3: to only intercept Iranian tankers, you will still send the
21:29
Speaker 3: shock through the stock market over the world. And that's
21:32
Speaker 3: the last thing Trump administration want to do because they're
21:34
Speaker 3: very responsive to the stock to to to the stock movement,
21:39
Speaker 3: right stock stock market movement, So they don't want to
21:42
Speaker 3: crash the stock market yet. And this is why they
21:45
Speaker 3: don't want to do that. Another reason, uh, very I
21:49
Speaker 3: see very few people mentioned about this China. They Chinese China.
21:55
Speaker 3: They do not have power projection capability to to pershing golf.
22:00
Speaker 3: Yet you know they're building a lot of ships, They're
22:03
Speaker 3: building tons of ships, but they don't have the logistics
22:06
Speaker 3: supply base. The only logistic base they have currently is
22:09
Speaker 3: in Djabuti. But they don't have the kind of logistic
22:13
Speaker 3: based network and port agreement that United States have. Let's remember,
22:19
Speaker 3: before the United States started a war against Irang, US
22:23
Speaker 3: hammer out the deal with India which allow US Navy
22:26
Speaker 3: ships to dock in India. All these ships they need
22:30
Speaker 3: to be resupplied, we feel regularly, right, they can't just
22:34
Speaker 3: like stay on open water in definitely, they have to
22:37
Speaker 3: come in to get food, to get oil. And this
22:41
Speaker 3: is why you need these these logistic bases everywhere. But
22:45
Speaker 3: China don't have those those bases because China military is
22:51
Speaker 3: not structure to be an imperial military the way the
22:56
Speaker 3: US military is structured. So China military is not structure
23:00
Speaker 3: to be like the expeditionary force where you sent to
23:03
Speaker 3: far corner of the earth. Instead, the Chinese military is
23:06
Speaker 3: designed to fight on its peripheral, in the periphery, its
23:11
Speaker 3: neighborhood and one of the important parts in South China Sea.
23:15
Speaker 3: This is the this is the area where China do
23:18
Speaker 3: have dominance over United States uh, you know, China had
23:21
Speaker 3: built a lot of artifacial island in South China see
23:24
Speaker 3: where they placed missiles, including anti anti ship ballistic missiles,
23:30
Speaker 3: so that allowed them to cover the whole range of
23:33
Speaker 3: South China Sea. And recently US Navy they did a
23:38
Speaker 3: show of force with their vassal states like Philippines and Japan,
23:43
Speaker 3: et cetera. Eleven ships total, eleven ships to sail through
23:47
Speaker 3: South China Sea and there were shadowed on both sides
23:50
Speaker 3: by a massive Chinese armada. And so United States cannot
23:56
Speaker 3: compete with China in South China Sea at the moment.
23:59
Speaker 3: That's another reason they they say, wisely, I might add
24:03
Speaker 3: decide not to put the blockade line on Strata Malacca
24:08
Speaker 3: because that that could be challenged by Chinese military, and
24:13
Speaker 3: and and and so so. So I don't know if
24:16
Speaker 3: I answer your question, but but but uh, you know,
24:19
Speaker 3: I'm just providing context here. Yeah, No, it.
24:23
Speaker 1: Doesn't make sense. Your point is.
24:26
Speaker 2: The US kept pushing it the envelope, and in this
24:30
Speaker 2: particular case, China has built up it's let's say, it's confidence,
24:34
Speaker 2: and it realized that you can't satisfy this toddler with
24:39
Speaker 2: a gun, meaning there's nothing that you could do to
24:41
Speaker 2: satisfy the US. US is dealing capable, and on top
24:44
Speaker 2: of being a dealing capable, it's dealing with, let's say,
24:48
Speaker 2: an equal power. At this point that China is feeling
24:51
Speaker 2: itself saying.
24:52
Speaker 1: Hey, we're equals. You can't pull us shit anymore with US.
24:56
Speaker 2: No, I get it. It's like China is now at
24:58
Speaker 2: the point where you can do it. You can do
25:00
Speaker 2: twenty years ago, I can do it now. And that's
25:02
Speaker 2: what it's doing. What's also interesting to this is what
25:06
Speaker 2: does it mean for the world that China is now
25:09
Speaker 2: perfectively saying, Hey, the sanction regime that you guys have
25:12
Speaker 2: been running for you know, thirty years, that's over with.
25:16
Speaker 1: We're no longer playing this game. What does it mean
25:20
Speaker 1: going forward from the.
25:21
Speaker 3: Same point I mean, I mean right now, the US
25:26
Speaker 3: imperial system is under a lot of pressure on all front.
25:29
Speaker 3: You know, first of the Yran War already demolish all
25:33
Speaker 3: the US bases in the region. US finally pulled out
25:37
Speaker 3: of Iraq with the exception of Iraqi Turkurdistan after you
25:41
Speaker 3: know what twenty thirty years, and then the United States
25:48
Speaker 3: is is you know, you show it has no it
25:52
Speaker 3: has no possible way to force open the street or
25:56
Speaker 3: her moves right, and it does not call the West
26:00
Speaker 3: Asia anymore militarily. It has shown to be a paper
26:05
Speaker 3: piper by Iraq. You know, this is this war made
26:08
Speaker 3: you ran from the propeller, You run from regional power
26:11
Speaker 3: to a world superpower because they dictate the flow of
26:15
Speaker 3: twenty percent of world supply of oil and gas. You know,
26:20
Speaker 3: like I just heard some data for countries like Kuwait,
26:24
Speaker 3: Bahrang Qatar. They haven't sold any gas or oil for
26:29
Speaker 3: the last month. Okay, Right now, the only oil that's
26:33
Speaker 3: coming out of the West Asia is through the pipeline
26:38
Speaker 3: cross Audi Arabia to the to the Red Sea and
26:43
Speaker 3: another smaller UAE pipeline. So total, there's about four million
26:49
Speaker 3: barrel per day, uh that's gets shipped from Red Sea
26:54
Speaker 3: and the one billion barrel of oil per day on
26:57
Speaker 3: the UAE pipeline. So all together that's five million barrel
27:02
Speaker 3: of oil coming out of Persian Golf. But before the
27:06
Speaker 3: war it was twenty million barrel per oil was coming out.
27:11
Speaker 3: So like right now nothing is coming through, nothing is
27:14
Speaker 3: going through. This is this is placing a huge drag
27:21
Speaker 3: on the world economy. This is why the oil price
27:24
Speaker 3: finally shot up over one hundred hours. You know, the
27:26
Speaker 3: brand and the West Texas Intermediate finally has gone over.
27:32
Speaker 3: Because even that the last shipment of the oil Phone
27:38
Speaker 3: from the Middle East just landed in California in Long Beach.
27:42
Speaker 3: That that tanker sailed before the war started, because there's
27:46
Speaker 3: a time delayed, right, it takes fifty days to sail
27:49
Speaker 3: Phone Persian Golf to the west coast of US. So
27:54
Speaker 3: now all the oil that was that sale before the
27:59
Speaker 3: war started has arrived. The shortage will now begin. You know,
28:03
Speaker 3: we have not seen anything yet, you know, because up
28:07
Speaker 3: to this point we're still getting the oil that was
28:09
Speaker 3: coming coming in more than a month ago, that was
28:13
Speaker 3: already on the ocean. Now now the real shortage will
28:17
Speaker 3: will begin. And oh, thanks to Donald Trump. And I think, uh,
28:23
Speaker 3: you know, the whole the idea. You know, I'm actually
28:28
Speaker 3: surprised Donald is going through his trip to China at
28:32
Speaker 3: this moment because originally the idea was, you know, by
28:36
Speaker 3: going after Venezuela and going after Iran, United States, Donald
28:42
Speaker 3: Trump will have some leverage when he meets within say hey,
28:46
Speaker 3: we have those choke holde on your energy supply partners.
28:51
Speaker 3: How about give us some rare earth in the exchange, right,
28:55
Speaker 3: we can do a trade. But now what does he have?
29:00
Speaker 3: He has a very weekend and Jim Pink just says no, no, no,
29:05
Speaker 3: still no rare earth for you. Then what what he's
29:08
Speaker 3: going to do? And this is why they're doing all
29:11
Speaker 3: these like sanctioning uh Chinese oil refinery. And Scott Besson
29:16
Speaker 3: is threatening to play secondary sanctioning on Chinese banks. That
29:20
Speaker 3: is going to collapse the world financial system if you
29:24
Speaker 3: start doing that because uh, you know, the Chinese bank
29:28
Speaker 3: is not like the Chinese bank of twenty years ago. Uh,
29:31
Speaker 3: they are very much embedded into the global global trade network.
29:36
Speaker 3: Now if you if you play secondary sanction on Chinese
29:39
Speaker 3: bank again, that's going to collapse the stock market, global
29:44
Speaker 3: stock market and driven the world economy into it not
29:48
Speaker 3: not just a recession, but a depression.
29:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the point. Well, gives it a few days
29:56
Speaker 2: that spot on, correct if I'm wrong. I was in
30:01
Speaker 2: the hospital, guess today, So I was just getting stuff
30:03
Speaker 2: and bits and pieces. But Aran just attacked that you pipeline.
30:09
Speaker 2: So from my understanding, there was one pipeline that you
30:12
Speaker 2: he had at his disposed to get around the straight
30:17
Speaker 2: attacks on straight or most Yeah. And Iran just attacked
30:21
Speaker 2: the pipeline yesterday. I think if I had like drones
30:23
Speaker 2: and you hit.
30:24
Speaker 3: It, yeah yeah mission yeah yeah so so so so
30:29
Speaker 3: the the U a. E. Pipeline goes to the port
30:32
Speaker 3: of Pajera where they get loaded uh onto ships as
30:37
Speaker 3: on the on the golf of Old Man and then
30:40
Speaker 3: so round. It's like, okay, we're just gonna attack your ports.
30:44
Speaker 3: Still no oil, it's gonna come out year. They received
30:48
Speaker 3: the branch of your attack throughout this war, so you're
30:51
Speaker 3: not really habit in for them because you were. Yeah.
30:55
Speaker 3: It was also very strike and of saying like okay,
30:58
Speaker 3: we we want washing to take out your own you know,
31:01
Speaker 3: we really want to watch it to take out your.
31:04
Speaker 4: So and so Uran' is like, oh really, okay, we'll
31:07
Speaker 4: make an example out of you and and so that
31:10
Speaker 4: will that That means we're down to the Saudi pipeline now,
31:14
Speaker 4: which is again only four million barrels per oil.
31:17
Speaker 3: And that can be choked off anytime if houties or
31:22
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, so a lot decide to join in the action,
31:29
Speaker 3: you know, to close down the Balboo mandd on the
31:32
Speaker 3: on the Red Sea and and then there will be
31:36
Speaker 3: no So far I think Youuran and Saudi Arabia probably
31:40
Speaker 3: has some kind of understanding. They're allowing that that four
31:43
Speaker 3: million barrel per day to go through. So yeah, so
31:49
Speaker 3: it's still it still doesn't matter. You used to be
31:52
Speaker 3: twenty bill million barrels per day that was coming out
31:55
Speaker 3: of Persian Gulf. We're still like sixty million barrels short.
32:00
Speaker 3: I mean that that and the people people are thinking, oh,
32:04
Speaker 3: but US have oil, No, US don't have oil. US
32:07
Speaker 3: is a net oil importer. The United States imports six
32:10
Speaker 3: million barrels of crude per day, h six million barrels
32:15
Speaker 3: of crude per day. And what United States export is
32:20
Speaker 3: that US is a net petroleum product export because you
32:24
Speaker 3: US export a lot of natural gas, and US export
32:28
Speaker 3: a lot of what's called uh uh petroleum liquids. But
32:34
Speaker 3: but they're they're they're they're basically gas, like a liquid
32:37
Speaker 3: fined gas, and that they're not replacement for oil. And
32:43
Speaker 3: and and right now, US economy is actually a very
32:46
Speaker 3: oil intensive economy. It's forty percent more dependent on oil
32:51
Speaker 3: than the Chinese economy, which is pretty amazing if you
32:54
Speaker 3: think about it, because you know, everything is made in
32:57
Speaker 3: China nowadays. Yes, somehow US economy is still forty percent
33:03
Speaker 3: more oil intensive than the Chinese economy because you know,
33:08
Speaker 3: all the transportation infrastructure US still relies on oil, whereas
33:13
Speaker 3: China they have really yeah, they have. Chinas really have
33:17
Speaker 3: did a major push for electrification. You know, they electrify
33:21
Speaker 3: their train lines. They have evs. You know, they have
33:25
Speaker 3: a huge like now more than sixty percent of the
33:29
Speaker 3: new car sold in China or evs. So China is
33:34
Speaker 3: well prepared for this, much more more prepared than the
33:37
Speaker 3: United States. And then there's the fertilizers, the fertilizers, which
33:42
Speaker 3: is which is crazy because a lot of the fertilizer
33:45
Speaker 3: actually is synthesized out of natural gas. You know, urea
33:51
Speaker 3: nitrogen potassium, the nitrogen use. It uses natural gas to
33:56
Speaker 3: get it to extract the nitrogen. US is a huge,
34:00
Speaker 3: huge natural gas producer. Yet the price fertilizers still going up. Now,
34:06
Speaker 3: the the farm farmer bankruptcy in the United States is
34:11
Speaker 3: up forty because farmers can no longer afford the increase
34:15
Speaker 3: in the fertilizer prices and the diesel prices. And this
34:19
Speaker 3: is because this is because even though US is a
34:22
Speaker 3: large gas producer. But guess what natural gas oil? Those
34:28
Speaker 3: are globally traded commodities. So US companies oil big oil
34:33
Speaker 3: majors are making a lot of money head and overhel
34:36
Speaker 3: right now exporting those excessive gas to the rest of
34:42
Speaker 3: the world because they can make higher profit which make
34:46
Speaker 3: the price go up. This is why the US farmers
34:50
Speaker 3: now can no longer afford to buy fertilizers that depend
34:55
Speaker 3: on natural gas so and anyway, even if they do
35:00
Speaker 3: plant soil beans, they can't sell to China anyway, so
35:03
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter. They're screwed. Trump is a little killing
35:07
Speaker 3: off his space.
35:09
Speaker 1: Right here.
35:09
Speaker 2: Seventy percent of farmers can't afford to grow all their crops.
35:13
Speaker 2: Ain't that's something, Hey, that's something.
35:16
Speaker 3: We're gonna have food shortages, sir. We're gonna have food
35:19
Speaker 3: shortages at the end of the year. I mean it's
35:21
Speaker 3: guarantee now, Like we are really late now into the
35:25
Speaker 3: spring planting season. This is a time for the farmers
35:29
Speaker 3: so to to to to put down their crop for
35:32
Speaker 3: the rest of the year, and right now it ain't happening.
35:37
Speaker 3: I don't think that you know, they're not getting the fertilizers.
35:40
Speaker 3: That means there's gonna be a major crop shortage at
35:45
Speaker 3: the end of the year. It's coming.
35:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's the wild part, right about. One of
35:52
Speaker 2: the things that the war in Ukraine taught me was
35:54
Speaker 2: that there is a difference between commodities and between cash.
36:00
Speaker 2: You can't eat cash, you can eat commodities. Right, So
36:04
Speaker 2: even if the US turns to the farmers what you
36:07
Speaker 2: did before and say hey, we will pay you in
36:11
Speaker 2: lieu of the sanctions because we realize you're being hurt,
36:13
Speaker 2: it doesn't really affect their ability to produce food, which
36:17
Speaker 2: is the point. Like it misses the point. Yeah, we
36:21
Speaker 2: can make your whole financially, but making you whole financially
36:24
Speaker 2: is not the same thing as you having what you
36:26
Speaker 2: need in order to produce crops so people can eat.
36:29
Speaker 2: Those are very different things, and your one is all
36:32
Speaker 2: of this has come into a head. One of the
36:35
Speaker 2: other things I wanted to hit was leverage, and you
36:40
Speaker 2: alluded to this. So it's one thing for the Trump
36:43
Speaker 2: administration to go to China and says, hey, we crippled Venezuela.
36:49
Speaker 2: We've put Maduro in jail. Look at how provocative we
36:53
Speaker 2: are and murdering people in boats. We've attacked Iran and
36:57
Speaker 2: we are limiting the ulershipments coming from Ron because we
37:00
Speaker 2: defect will collapse the government of Iran. And now we
37:02
Speaker 2: have it either in a patsy or at at least
37:05
Speaker 2: the government is in chaos. And now we're coming in
37:09
Speaker 2: China saying look up, provocative, we are look at what
37:11
Speaker 2: we were willing to do. Look at the leveragy other
37:13
Speaker 2: I suppose that's not this. This is you're coming to
37:17
Speaker 2: China after losing the war with a regional power that
37:21
Speaker 2: you have.
37:23
Speaker 3: And on top of that, On top of that, China
37:26
Speaker 3: is huge oil reserve, which is the world's largest. China
37:30
Speaker 3: has about one four one point five billion dollar barrels
37:35
Speaker 3: of oil. That's larger than United States, Japan, Europe combined.
37:42
Speaker 3: Here right this is the world's largest oil reserve. We
37:44
Speaker 3: China took a couple of years to build up and
37:48
Speaker 3: that hasn't gone down. China hasn't been dropping down on
37:51
Speaker 3: their oil inventory for more than amount of war had
37:56
Speaker 3: already gone by. That inventory is growing because right now
37:59
Speaker 3: there's more oil coming in, you know, from Uranian oil.
38:03
Speaker 3: Russian oil are still cut flowing into China. So China
38:06
Speaker 3: is doing okay. There recently China. When the war first happened,
38:10
Speaker 3: China put an export ban on gasoline, diesel, fertilizers because
38:17
Speaker 3: they wanted to make sure their domestic producers get them first.
38:22
Speaker 3: But now China just lifted the they say they're gonna
38:26
Speaker 3: lift the export ban on on gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
38:31
Speaker 3: That's not a country that's running out of oil because
38:35
Speaker 3: now China is resuming export. And China is one of
38:38
Speaker 3: the major export of the petroleum product to the rest
38:41
Speaker 3: of the Asia because China has a lot of refineries,
38:44
Speaker 3: they have a lot of refining capacities. So traditionally, you know,
38:49
Speaker 3: they China supply about thirty two percent of the jet
38:52
Speaker 3: field to Australia. And now they say, okay, you can buy,
38:57
Speaker 3: you can buy. We have plenty of oil, you can
39:00
Speaker 3: by gas you can buy, you can buy gasoline, you
39:02
Speaker 3: can buy, diesel, you can buy. I don't know about fertilizers.
39:05
Speaker 3: I don't know if China is uh lifting the band
39:08
Speaker 3: on a fertilizer export yet. But but for gasoline, diesel
39:13
Speaker 3: and jet field, this is a huge relief for people
39:17
Speaker 3: in South East Asia because farmers that need diesel, you know,
39:21
Speaker 3: they need diesel to to work their tractors. And yeah, yeah, yes,
39:27
Speaker 3: China is probably can be least impacted by the shortage.
39:35
Speaker 2: I'm curious from your point of view, what do you
39:37
Speaker 2: think this goes. I mean, he's going to a meeting,
39:41
Speaker 2: he has no cards in that meeting. Over a few cards.
39:44
Speaker 2: The war that he involved himself in with regional power
39:47
Speaker 2: has been lost at least. Is about the heat up
39:49
Speaker 2: once again, meaning it seems that this push, this freedom
39:54
Speaker 2: push or whatever Trump is calling it, straight uprom moost
39:58
Speaker 2: and this is going to heat this war up the US.
40:02
Speaker 2: I mean, they've already fired on US ships apparently in
40:06
Speaker 2: the region reports. So they hit US.
40:08
Speaker 3: Ships, and the US ship ran and the US ship
40:12
Speaker 3: rang away. The hit the US the fire and the
40:15
Speaker 3: US warship and which warship rang away? And this is
40:19
Speaker 3: why jamar in America, we don't call you wrong, you wrong,
40:23
Speaker 3: We say Iran. This is why Americans says Iraq, Iran.
40:32
Speaker 2: This is what we call it Iran because we all, oh,
40:37
Speaker 2: that's hilarious. That is hilarious. A military that is built
40:42
Speaker 2: to project power around the world just hauled ass when
40:45
Speaker 2: ian pthetic context not to mention the USS forward limping
40:49
Speaker 2: back to America. It's crabbing back to America. That's what
40:54
Speaker 2: we call it. Iran when he goes to China, meaning
40:58
Speaker 2: what is the point of against China? When you've just
41:02
Speaker 2: been found out? Bou Ron, I am very interested in
41:06
Speaker 2: whatever that conversation looks like. And I guess this could
41:08
Speaker 2: be the last question. What given the world events, what
41:14
Speaker 2: do you think this looks like? I mean, the relative
41:16
Speaker 2: it is, as you point out, China is like, dude,
41:19
Speaker 2: we're not paying attention to your sanctions now, So you
41:22
Speaker 2: trying to come in with some kind of leverage by
41:24
Speaker 2: putting sanctions on our companies.
41:26
Speaker 1: That's not going to fly. You just lost the war.
41:30
Speaker 1: What is this conversation between Trump and Zjing Ping going
41:32
Speaker 1: to be about? Trump has no cards? Jing Ping knows.
41:40
Speaker 3: I'm interested in finding out too. But yearly, you have
41:43
Speaker 3: to keep in mind, jam are you only these meetings
41:46
Speaker 3: the summit are just for old photo ops. The real
41:49
Speaker 3: negotiation has already been done among the bureaucrats on both sides.
41:55
Speaker 3: The leaders they just show up, you know, make make
41:58
Speaker 3: shoot some photos, and then for Trump to come home
42:01
Speaker 3: and claim we achieve a great deal. I have great
42:05
Speaker 3: personal chemistry with President Jim paying. We had a great talk,
42:09
Speaker 3: we reached the agreement, and the stop market will rally.
42:15
Speaker 3: You know that the then baron will make a killing
42:17
Speaker 3: again at stop futures and realistic. I think that's what's
42:23
Speaker 3: gonna happen. Because for Trump, what he needs is he
42:26
Speaker 3: just need a photo shop. He just needs something for
42:29
Speaker 3: him to claim victory at this point. But he's a
42:32
Speaker 3: TV reality TV show host, Jamar. He knows how to
42:35
Speaker 3: play it up for television and you know it's not
42:39
Speaker 3: it's not grounded in reality, but you knows how to
42:42
Speaker 3: project his reality. And he's now gonna say he's a
42:47
Speaker 3: great peacemaker and ask for a Nobel peace price again.
42:50
Speaker 3: And I think that's that's gonna happen. But I'm curious
42:54
Speaker 3: to know what kind of deal was hammered out by
42:57
Speaker 3: the other bureaucrats, uh, you know, behind the scenes, because
43:01
Speaker 3: obviously there has to be some kind of agreement for
43:05
Speaker 3: this meeting to even go forward, because otherwise, like you say,
43:09
Speaker 3: what's the point, what's the point of meeting? If you
43:12
Speaker 3: can't agree on anything, you can't produce anything tangible. But
43:16
Speaker 3: I think for Trump personally, he just needs something to
43:22
Speaker 3: show that he's doing something and then that which he
43:26
Speaker 3: can trump it to be a victory for himself, as
43:30
Speaker 3: saying he always does.
43:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean he's in the middle. I mean.
43:37
Speaker 2: He is going to China in the middle of a
43:39
Speaker 2: half war. The war hasn't gone anywhere. And the fact
43:43
Speaker 2: that these two sides are rubbing against each other militarily again,
43:47
Speaker 2: meaning the ceasefire hasn't gone anywhere. The US is agreement
43:51
Speaker 2: and capable with the country that it doesn't consider an equal.
43:55
Speaker 1: I hope that makes sense.
43:56
Speaker 2: Like you have an imperial power that is against a rival,
43:59
Speaker 2: that is regional power that the US is supposed to
44:02
Speaker 2: just walk over, and it can't do.
44:05
Speaker 3: It because you know why, you know why you mar
44:08
Speaker 3: because they haven't felt the real pain yet. Exactly, they
44:12
Speaker 3: haven't felt the real pain yet. I think you will.
44:15
Speaker 3: You will take time for reality to sink in. Like
44:18
Speaker 3: like I mentioned that the last ship sail from Persian
44:22
Speaker 3: Gulf just before the war just arrived in Long Beach, California,
44:28
Speaker 3: like just like a few days ago. And and the
44:32
Speaker 3: real shortage is just about to begin, so like the
44:35
Speaker 3: real pain hasn't really started yet, and and I think
44:39
Speaker 3: it's gonna, you know, to take another month of this,
44:43
Speaker 3: things might be different. You know when when when the
44:45
Speaker 3: ship really hits a fan. Uh well, I mean the
44:48
Speaker 3: real ship will hit the fan. If this think doesn't
44:51
Speaker 3: resolve anytime soon and then we have food shortages at
44:55
Speaker 3: the end of the year, that that's that's that's when
44:58
Speaker 3: like things are gonna get real. Serio. I mean, we're
45:02
Speaker 3: we're not looking at into a possible recession right now.
45:05
Speaker 3: We're looking into a possible possibility of a depression. Was
45:09
Speaker 3: a d I'm not just being like it's not being
45:13
Speaker 3: creating hyper bowl or anything. This is this is a
45:16
Speaker 3: real This is pretty real. It's a big deal.
45:19
Speaker 2: I mean, if you listen to like, I don't think
45:22
Speaker 2: Americans realize this yet, like this, for whatever reason, markets
45:27
Speaker 2: have to price this in, like they are still thinking
45:31
Speaker 2: taco Trump always chickens out. And I think what they
45:35
Speaker 2: seem to be missing, at least when I was going
45:37
Speaker 2: through some of the analysis of it, is that this is.
45:39
Speaker 1: Not a terriff. This is not like, Okay, I could
45:43
Speaker 1: just turn this off in the middle.
45:44
Speaker 3: Of a war. You can't. You can't. You can't. Yeah,
45:49
Speaker 3: that thing is even if they reach agreement today to
45:53
Speaker 3: stop this, to lift the blockade, you will take month
45:57
Speaker 3: and month to restore production to the pre war level.
46:00
Speaker 3: Because with this oil and gas infrastructure, it's not a
46:04
Speaker 3: knop you can just turn shut tur tear on and off,
46:07
Speaker 3: because they require to maintain constant pressure at the oil well.
46:13
Speaker 3: When you stop production, guess what happened. The pressure builds
46:18
Speaker 3: and builds and builds, and eventually you blow up your equipment.
46:22
Speaker 3: Uh and and it damaged your well. And what's gonna
46:27
Speaker 3: happen is you're gonna have to you can't use the
46:30
Speaker 3: old drolling hole anymore. You're gonna have to draw aniw
46:34
Speaker 3: make new droeling and which takes time, which takes a
46:36
Speaker 3: lot lot more investment and a lot more time. So
46:39
Speaker 3: even if we have even Kuwait is example, you know,
46:45
Speaker 3: the Saddam invasion of Kuwait happened back in the nineteen nineties,
46:50
Speaker 3: and still they still have not reached the production level
46:56
Speaker 3: pre war Kuwait still did not have not reached there.
47:00
Speaker 3: They're there their pre war production level of the nineteen nineties.
47:04
Speaker 3: Think think about that. I mean like that, that's kind
47:06
Speaker 3: of the damn long term damage it's gonna do to
47:09
Speaker 3: the oil infrastructure in the region.
47:12
Speaker 1: And by the way, that's assuming it stops.
47:15
Speaker 3: Today and it's they give big give.
47:20
Speaker 2: And by the way, that's assuming that if it starts
47:23
Speaker 2: back up, Ron doesn't smash u a Saudi Arabia or
47:28
Speaker 2: production capabilities where that stuff needs to be rebuilt, which
47:31
Speaker 2: means in the future. Right like me, it's one thing
47:36
Speaker 2: if you resume it, okay, okay, I get that.
47:38
Speaker 1: It's another thing that's not there.
47:39
Speaker 2: To resume, which is possible in another Let's say back
47:44
Speaker 2: and forth between the US and I ran No, this is.
47:48
Speaker 1: You're right. They haven't prices to stuff in. People haven't
47:51
Speaker 1: gone hungry yet.
47:51
Speaker 2: If you hasn't gone to two dollars et cetera, et cetera,
47:54
Speaker 2: et cetera.
47:55
Speaker 3: Say but but but think things things already start moving.
47:58
Speaker 3: There's already capital flight from West Asia, you know, all
48:01
Speaker 3: that all that d Bai money. They're already coming into
48:05
Speaker 3: Southeast Asia to China right now because people are realizing
48:10
Speaker 3: that the whole Dubai project by it might not be
48:14
Speaker 3: sustainable at this point. They have to part their money
48:18
Speaker 3: in a safe haven somewhere else. So yeah, it's there's
48:23
Speaker 3: a lot of you know, you say, follow the money
48:26
Speaker 3: right right now, the money is going to Asia. The
48:29
Speaker 3: money is going to East Asia, Southeast Asia, and then
48:34
Speaker 3: they might never return might never return back to to
48:37
Speaker 3: to the West Asia. And you know, the whole the
48:41
Speaker 3: whole AI bubble in United States, they were counting on
48:46
Speaker 3: investment from those oil checks in the golf right, like
48:50
Speaker 3: the five hundred billion dollars Stargate project that was supposed
48:54
Speaker 3: to be financed by golf money. I don't think I don't.
48:58
Speaker 3: I don't think they will have that money for a
49:01
Speaker 3: Sam Outman anymore. I'm sorry that that that's another thing
49:06
Speaker 3: that's going to blow out, because if you take away
49:08
Speaker 3: all the AI investment, the US economy is in recession already,
49:14
Speaker 3: you know, and I think that that AI bubble is
49:17
Speaker 3: going to be It's about diverse.
49:20
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, it's not just the AI bubble. I
49:22
Speaker 2: mean if you think of the amount of money and
49:24
Speaker 2: this would be the lasting a promise, the amount of
49:26
Speaker 2: money that those golf states don't into the US and
49:32
Speaker 2: this idea of protection for oil. I mean, if you
49:34
Speaker 2: think of what the airplane that they gave Donald Trump,
49:38
Speaker 2: the money that they were giving Donald Trump. Tom Trump
49:40
Speaker 2: was like, they're going to give us a trillion dollars
49:41
Speaker 2: or whatever the hell that number is right.
49:44
Speaker 1: How are they going.
49:45
Speaker 2: To do that when, as you point out, the UAE
49:47
Speaker 2: has set no oil anywhere, Like wait no, what? Like
49:51
Speaker 2: many of these countries have been fundamentally crippled by this
49:56
Speaker 2: and the crippling the countries, You've crippled the investment that
49:59
Speaker 2: is going into the US, especially when he realized we
50:02
Speaker 2: are not protected. The military personnel ran from their military
50:06
Speaker 2: basis again I ran, they ran from the military bass
50:12
Speaker 2: like like ships rain you wrong?
50:16
Speaker 3: You round the Top Gone Maverick thing of bombing a
50:20
Speaker 3: US basis with a sixty year old airframe, a F five,
50:24
Speaker 3: you know, like.
50:29
Speaker 1: It's like we have the sophisticated air defense around the bases.
50:32
Speaker 2: In the Cold War area, plane bomb and US base
50:38
Speaker 2: and flew back to get home.
50:41
Speaker 3: The Hollywood version of Topcong is Tom Cruise, but in
50:45
Speaker 3: real lives, the top Gone Maverick is actually Persian that.
50:50
Speaker 1: Would have been in a plane, you know, with a
50:53
Speaker 1: sticker on the side of it. Right, That's like that's
50:56
Speaker 1: the real top One, cold Man.
50:58
Speaker 2: I always enjoyed these conversations since the audience loves you
51:01
Speaker 2: the bits. I think you're fantastic, and I always appreciate
51:04
Speaker 2: you joining me man, I really do just for the audience,
51:06
Speaker 2: just so they know where.
51:07
Speaker 1: To find you. Carl Ja.
51:09
Speaker 2: Carl Ja is host of Silk and Steel podcasts focused
51:13
Speaker 2: on China, surrounding regions and their history, culture and politics.
51:18
Speaker 1: Definitely check out Carl's channel. Also, you can follow Carl
51:22
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Carl Jah. You can follow him his
51:24
Speaker 1: podcast on Twitter at Steel, Silk the Letter In.
51:28
Speaker 2: Subscribe and support this podcast at patreon dot com slash
51:31
Speaker 2: Silk and Steal. Carl has a series way he goes
51:34
Speaker 2: through Jesus Chinese culture, or the very least, the history
51:38
Speaker 2: of China year by year. I think you said every
51:41
Speaker 2: five years.
51:42
Speaker 3: No no, no, no, no no. So I'm back to year
51:44
Speaker 3: by year now. Like the last time I talked to you,
51:48
Speaker 3: I was covering the Warring stage period where the primary
51:51
Speaker 3: source just not there to do year by year. But
51:54
Speaker 3: now I just reached the Imperial Age. I'm now covering
51:58
Speaker 3: the year two nineteen BC. We're in the time of
52:03
Speaker 3: the first Emperor. So from start for on Imperial Age,
52:06
Speaker 3: we have the annals. Now we have the Imperial Annals,
52:09
Speaker 3: I can again go year by year. So now I'm
52:12
Speaker 3: doing it again, year by year of Chinese history.
52:16
Speaker 1: Card.
52:16
Speaker 2: That's amazing. I'm so impressed by that. And you have
52:20
Speaker 2: content forever. It's like I am content forever.
52:27
Speaker 3: MA.
52:28
Speaker 2: May Carl you be safe, You have a good rest
52:31
Speaker 2: of your night, and thank you for this. Man.
52:33
Speaker 1: Have a good one man.
52:35
Speaker 3: Anytime jamar By play shut out Carl.
52:39
Speaker 1: JA love talking to Carl, Joab My mom is like
52:41
Speaker 1: you got to speak Kutna. Yeah. I enjoyed talking to