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Elon Musk Predictions. · Elon Musk Thinking

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I suspect that the long term bad for JERUMP consumed
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: right robots is an excess of twenty billion units. So
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: we're ramping out production in our US factory as well
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: as building our building megaback factory in China that's such
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: a roughly double hour output, maybe troubled potentially inclusion.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: We're super excited about the progress across the board.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I recommend anyone who doesn't believe that says the will
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: soult bigle autonomy should not hold test the stop. They
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: should sell a TESTA stop you should believe will solve autonomy.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: You should buy test to stop.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Enabling the fleet to operate like the Giant Autonomous fleet,
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  Speaker 1: and it takes evaluation, I think to some pretty crazy
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: number of ARC invest thinks on the order of five
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  Speaker 1: trillion dollars. I think they're probably not wrong, and long
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: term optimists, I think IS achieves evaluation several times that number.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: So we'll large adoption acceleration evs and then a bit
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: of a hangover as other struggle to.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Make compelling evs.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So there's been quite a few competing electric bicles that
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: have entered the market, and mostly they have not done well,
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: but they have discounted their quite substantially, which has made
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  Speaker 1: it but the board for Tesla, we don't see this
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  Speaker 1: as a long term issue.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: But but really it's a fairly short.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Term and we still obviously firmly believe that evs are
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: best for customers and that the world is headed for
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: a fully electrified transport, not just the cars, but also
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: aircraft and both. Despite many challenges, the Tesla team did
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: a great job executing.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: And we did achieve record quarterly revenues.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Energy storage deployments reached an all time high Q two,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: leading to record profits for the energy business, and we're
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: investing in many future projects, including air training and inference
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  Speaker 1: and great infrastructure to support to future products. We won't
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: get too much into the product roadmap here because that
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: is reserved for product announcement events, but we are in
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: fact to develop to deliver a more affordable model in
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the first half of the next year. Really, my father,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: the biggest differentiated for Tesla is autonomy. In addition to that,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: we have scale economies and we're the most efficient electric
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  Speaker 1: vehicle producer in the world. While while others are pursuing
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: different parts of the air robotic stac we're presuing all
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: of them the slows for better cost control, more scale,
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  Speaker 1: cricket time to market, and a superior product applying not
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  Speaker 1: to not just do autonomous to autonomous humanoid robots. Like
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: optimists regarding full st driving and robot taxi, we've made
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of progress with will sub driving in Q two,
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  Speaker 1: and with version twelve point five beginning rollout, we think
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: customers will experience a staff change improvement in how well
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: supervised full self driving works. Version twelve point five has
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  Speaker 1: five times the parameters of twelve point four and will
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: finally merge the highway and city stacks, so the highway
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: side is.
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  Speaker 2: Soil at this point's pretty old.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: So often the issues people like can are on the highway,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: but with twelve point five we're finally merged the two stacks.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I still find out that most people actually don't know
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: how good the system is, and I would encourage anyone
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  Speaker 1: to understand system better to simply try it out and
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: let the car drive you around. One of the things
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: we're going to be doing just to make sure people
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: actually understand the capabilities of the car is when delivering
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: a new car and when picking up a car for
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: so is to just show people how to use it
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: and just drapping around the block. Once people use it
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: at all, that they tend to continue using it. So
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: it's it's very compelling, and this I think will be
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  Speaker 1: a massive demand driver. Even unsupervisedable self driving will be
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: a massive demand driver. And as we increase the miles
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  Speaker 1: between intervention, it will transition from supervisable self driving to
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: unsupervisable self driving and we can unlock massive potential in
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Deeplee were postponed the sort of Robotaxia with the product
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  Speaker 1: unveiled by a couple months, where it's shifted to ten
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  Speaker 1: ten to October, and this is because I wanted to
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: take some important changes that I think would improve the vehicle,
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  Speaker 1: the sort of the Robotaxi. That think that I think
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  Speaker 1: that we're the main thing that we're going to show
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: and we're also going to show up a couple of
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  Speaker 1: other things. So moving back, moving it back a few
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: months allowed us to improve the Robotaxi as well as adding.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: A couple of other things the product unveil.
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  Speaker 1: We're also nearing completion of the self expension of Being Texas,
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  Speaker 1: which will has the largest training cluster to day. So
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the incremental fifty eight one hundreds plus twenty thousand of
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  Speaker 1: our hardware for or AI cive a Tesla AI computer
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  Speaker 1: with Optimists. Optimis is already forming tasks in our factory
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: and we expect to have Optimist production version one in
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: limited production starting early next year. This will be for
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  Speaker 1: Tesla consumption. It's just better for us to iron out
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: the issues ourselves. But we expect to have several thousand
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  Speaker 1: Optimus robots produced and doing useful things by the end
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: of next year in the Tesli factories, and then in
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six wramping up production quite a bit, and
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  Speaker 1: at that point we'll be providing Optimist robots to outside customers.
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  Speaker 1: WELV production version two of Optimists. For the energy business,
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  Speaker 1: this is growing fast than anything else. This is we
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: are really demand constrained rather than production constrained. So we're
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: wramping up production in our US factory as well as
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: building our building megaback factory in China that's such a
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  Speaker 1: roughly double our output, more than network maybe troubled potentially.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: In conclusion, we're super excited about the progress across the board.
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  Speaker 1: We're changing the energy system, how people move around, happy
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  Speaker 1: wople approach the economy, the art taking is massive, but
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: I think the future is incredibly bright. It really just
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: can't emphasize just importance of autonomy for the vesical side
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  Speaker 1: and for optimists. Although the numbers sound crazy, I think
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  Speaker 1: Tesla producing app volume with unsupervised MSD essentially the fleet
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  Speaker 1: to operate like a giant autonomous fleet, and it takes evaluation.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: I think to some pretty crazy number are invest thinks
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  Speaker 1: on the order of five trillion dollars, I think they're
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: probably not wrong.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: And long term optimists.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Enabling the fleet to operate like the giant autonomous fleet
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and it takes evaluation, I think to some pretty crazy
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: number of ARC invest thinks on the order of five
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: trillion dollars, I think they're probably not wrong. And long
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: term optimists, I think is achieves evaluation several times that number.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: When can we do on supervidens to full self driving,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: It's difficult. My predictions on this have been overly optimists
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: for the past our trend it seems as though we
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: should get miles between interventions to be high enough. That
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  Speaker 1: too far enough the access to humans that you could
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  Speaker 1: do untivized, possibly by the end of this year.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: I would be shocked if we cannot do it next year.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So nexture seems highly probable to me based on when
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  Speaker 1: simply plus the points in the curve of miles between intervention,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: that trend exceeds human pushure next year. I'm quite concerned
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: about actually being able to get steady art NA gvus
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  Speaker 1: when we want them, and I think this therefore requires
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that we put a lot more effort on dojo in
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: order to have in order to ensure that we've got
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: the training capability that we need. We are going to
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: double down on dojo, and we do see a path
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  Speaker 1: to being competitive with the video with dojo, and I
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: think we kind of have no choice because the demand
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: for video is so high and that it's obviously their
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: obligation essentially to raise the price of GPUs to whatever
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  Speaker 1: the market will bear, which is very high.
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  Speaker 2: I think we've really got to make dojo work, and
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  Speaker 2: we will.
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  Speaker 1: Oustmus is intended to be a journalized humanoid robot a
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: lot of intelligence, So it's like saying, what kind of
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: accessories where we offered really human It's really intended to
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: be able to be backwards compatible with human tasks, so
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: it would be used any accessories that of human reduced.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Trump has said that heavy towers on Bigle's produced in Mexico,
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  Speaker 1: So it doesn't make sense to invest a lot in
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Mexico if that is going to be the case. So
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: we can see where things to play out politically. But
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  Speaker 1: we are increasing in capacity at our existing factories quite significant.
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  Speaker 1: I should say that the cyber taxi or robotaxi will
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  Speaker 1: get produced here at our headquarters that get to Texas, right,
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  Speaker 1: thank you as well, and as well Optimists towards the
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  Speaker 1: end next year for Optimist production version to the high
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: volume version of Optimists, we're also be produced here in Texas.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I think that there are opportunities to integrate growth into software.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So it was just there was this was this big
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: accent of a Tesla. There was no sales, the data
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: centers were full, there was no place to actually put
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: them be we were. We've been twenty four to seven
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  Speaker 1: to completely the self extension on the Tesla Big factory
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  Speaker 1: here in Texas.
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  Speaker 2: That's self extension is what will house.
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  Speaker 1: The fifty four hundreds and we're beginning to move the
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: h one hundred server acts each place there. But we
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: were really needed we needed that to be complete. Physically,
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  Speaker 1: if you can't order computer ordered GPUs and turn them on,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: but no, you need a data. Is that it's possible,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: don't want to be clear. That was in Tesla's interests,
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  Speaker 1: not country Tesla centries. So the Tesla a no good
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  Speaker 1: to have GPUs that catch enough this, but second that
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  Speaker 1: self extension is able to take the GPUs, which is
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  Speaker 1: really just this week we're moving GPU's in there and
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  Speaker 1: we'll bring them online.
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  Speaker 2: It was about to Xai, the only want.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: To work on a GI So what I was finding
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: was that we're trying to compuble to to Tesla. They
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: were only interested in working on APM, not testing problems.
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: And they want to start they do a startup.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: So it was case of either they go to a
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  Speaker 1: startup or and I'm involved, or do a startup and.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I'm not involved.
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  Speaker 1: Those are the two choices. This wasn't they were They
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: were to Tesla. They were not going to come to
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Tesla or any circumstances. Yeah, billion people on Earth, so
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: it's a billion right there. Then you've got all of
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: the industrial uses, which is probably at least as much.
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  Speaker 2: I's not way more so.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I suspect that the long term evand for general purpose
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  Speaker 1: humanide robots is an excess of twenty billion unit and
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Tesla is that has the most advanced humorid robot in
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  Speaker 1: the world, and it is also very good at manufacturing,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: which each other companies are not.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: And we've got a lot of experience, with.
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  Speaker 1: The most experience where the world leaders in real world
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  Speaker 1: am so we have all of the ingredients. I think
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  Speaker 1: we're unique in having all of the ingredients necessary large scale,
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  Speaker 1: high utility generalized humanoid robots. But that's why my Brough
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: estimate long term is in accordance with the oar invest
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: analysis of a mock pap of on the order of
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  Speaker 1: five trillion for maybe more for Commoss transport, and it's
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  Speaker 1: several times that number for general purpose humanide robots.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, at that point, I'm not sure what money
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  Speaker 2: even means. But in the end the.
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  Speaker 1: Benign Ai scenario, we are headed for an age of
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: abundance where there is no shortage of business services.
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Anyone can have pretty much anything. It's a while verty
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: while future we're edible. The distributed compute, Yeah, just really compute.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: That seems like a pretty obvious thing to do.
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  Speaker 1: I think the where the distributed compute becomes in staying
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: is with the next generation Tesla AI chook, which is
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: hard of reviable work, which is from the standpoint of
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: an infurnace capability comparable to B two hundred two hundred
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  Speaker 1: and we're able to have in production at the end
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: of next year and scale production in twenty six.
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  Speaker 2: So it just.
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  Speaker 1: Seems if you've got even if you've got autonomous vehicles
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  Speaker 1: that are operating four fifty or sixty hours a week,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: there's one one hundred and sixty eight hours in a week.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So we have somewhere above I think one hundred neural
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: nen computing. I think we need a better word, the GPU,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: because GPU means craps plus and so there's a higherd
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: hours plus per week of AI compute AI in burns
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: compute from the fleet and vehicles and probably some percentage
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: from human right robots that it would make sense to
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: do distributed in burns. And if you go there's a
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: fleet at some point one hundred million vehicles with AI
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: five and beyond AI six and seven whatnot, and they
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: may be billions of human or robots.
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  Speaker 2: That is just a staggering.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Amount of inforenced computer or that could be used for
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: general purpose computing.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: It doesn't have to be used for the human drobot
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: or for the car.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: So I think you know that's that's a pretty obvious
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: thing to say. It's more useful than having to do
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: nothing with that unique gateway computer too, So it's really
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: a gateway computer with the cellular and Wi Fi, the
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: tails like computer and seven cameras report nunt cameras that
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: get efferency sage review. But this will give it give
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: them the speed at which the border industry moves. It
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: would be several years before you receive solution is a
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: generalized solution. Whatever else has if you see a like
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: way Moo and what not, that very localized solutions that
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: requires high density mapping. That's not it's quite fragile. Interability
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: to expand out, believes is limited. Solution is a general
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: solution that works anywhere.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: It would even work on a different Earth. So if
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: you're rendered a new Earth, it would work on a
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: new Earth.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So it's this capability, I think in our experience, once
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: we demonstrate that something is safe enough or significantly safer
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: than human, we find that regulators are supportive of deployment.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Deployment of that capability.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: It's difficult to argue with if you've got a large
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: number of If you've got billions of miles that show
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: that in future unsupervised FSD is safer than human what
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: regulator could.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Really stand in the way of that.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: They're marly obligated to approve, So I don't think regulatory
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: approval will be a limiting factor. I should aposed to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: say that the self driving capabilities of that are deployed
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: outside of North America are far behind that in North America,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: so with the twelve point five and maybe twelve point six,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: but pretty soon we will ask for regular regulatory approval
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: of the Tesla supervised FSD in Europe, China and other countries,
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: and I think we're likely to receive that before the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: end of the year, thank you, which will be a
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: helpful demand driver in those region. Tops O JAM cancel
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: it is because JAM can't make it work, not because
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: of regulators. They're blaming regulators. That's most leading up then
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: to do because a Waimo is doing just buying in
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: those buckets. So it's just that their technology is not far.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: But there's the sh A number of times I've cooked
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: with smart people who live in New York or in
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: downtown Boston and don't ever drive and then are asking
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: me about FST. I'm like, you can just get a
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: car and try it, and if you're not doing that.
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: You have no idea what's going on. This would just
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: be the Tesla network.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: You just literally open the Tesla app and sum in
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: a car and re sent a car to pick you
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: up and take you somewhere, and you can. We will
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: have a fleet that's on the order of seven million,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: that a cateful of autonomy. Soon in the US to
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: come it will be over ten million, then over twenty million.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: This is an immense scale and the car is able
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: to operate twenty four to seven unlike the human driver
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: the capability to if there's this basically instant scale with
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: a software. And now this is for a customer and fleet,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: so you think of that as being a bit like Airbnb.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: You can choose to allow your car to be used
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: by the fleet or cancel it and bring it back.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: You'll be used by the fleet all the time, can
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: be used by the fleet and some of the time,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: and then Tesla would take would share on the revenue
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: with the customer. But you can think of the giant
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: fleet of Tesla vehicles as like the giant sort of
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Airbnb equivalent fleet, Airbnb on wheels. And in addition, we
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: would make some number of cars for Tesla that would
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: just be owned by Tesla and beat that to the fleet.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: I guess that would be a bit more like Uber.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: But this will be a test a network.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: And there's an important clause we've put in every Tesla purchase,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: which is that the Tesla vehicles can only be used
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: in the Tesla fleet. They cannot be used by third
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: party for or ting. The entire testl of fleet basically
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: becomes active. And this is obviously maybe the number of
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: people who don't want their car to own money, but
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: I think most people will. Yeah, we only find customers
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: that they can put together a hodge Pludge solution, and
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: then sometimes they'll pick that solutions and then that doesn't work.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think people don't understand just how much demand
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: it will be for frig storage.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: They really just like the PUP are understating this demand
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: by product orders magnitude, so that the actual energy total
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: energy output of state the US grid is if the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: power plants can operate at steady state, is at least
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: to three times the amount of energy it can't be
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Producers because there are a huge gap. There's a huge
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: difference in the from peak to trough in terms of
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: energy of power generation. In order for a grid to
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: not have blackouts, it must be able to support the
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: load at the worst minute of the worst day of
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the year, the coldest or hottest stay, which means that
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: for the rest of the time, for the rest of
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: the year, it's got massive excess power generation capability, but
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: it has no way to store that energy. Once you
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: add battery packs, you can now run the power plants
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: at steady state. Steady state means that basically any given
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: grid anywhere in the world can produce in terms of
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: cumulative energy in the course of the year, at least
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: twice what it is currently producing.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: That's okay, just maybe, I thank you. It's a very
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: profound thing.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I guess that there would be like some impact, but
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I think it would be devastating our competitors and it
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: would hurt TEXT slightly, but long term probably actually helps Tesla.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: It would be my guess. Yeah, but yeah, I said
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: this before. It's cooled.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: If value of Tesla overwhelmingly this autonomy, these other things
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: are in the noise relative to autonomy, so I recommend
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: anyone who doesn't believe that says the will soul bigle
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: autonomy should not hold testa Stop.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: They should sell the testa stop.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: You should believe Tesla will solve autonomy, you should buy
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: testa Stop.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: And all these other questions are in the noise.