Latest / Space Nuts: Astronomy Insights & Cosmic Discoveries / Cosmic Life Hunt: Delving into Astrobiology Part 2 & the Quest for Extraterrestrial Existence
Transcript
- 0:00Andrew Dunkley: Hi there. Thanks for joining us again. This
- 0:01is Space Nuts where we talk astronomy and
- 0:04space science and all sorts of other things.
- 0:07And over the last, uh, few
- 0:10episodes we've been doing some specials
- 0:13because Fred Watson's away gallivanting
- 0:15around Scotland playing a lot of golf. Not.
- 0:18Uh, so we're doing some specials with Jonty
- 0:21Horner. Uh, and we're doing part
- 0:24two today of
- 0:25Astrobiology, a fascinating
- 0:28part of astronomy and space science. Uh,
- 0:31one area we get so many questions about. So
- 0:34stand by as we get into that on this
- 0:37episode of space nuts. 15
- 0:40seconds.
- 0:40Jonti Horner: Guidance is internal. 10,
- 0:439, ignition sequence start.
- 0:46Space nuts. 5, 4, 3, 2. 1. 2,
- 0:493, 4, 5, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
- 0:51Space nuts.
- 0:53Andrew Dunkley: Astronauts report it feels good.
- 0:56And back with us again is Johnty Horner,
- 0:58professor of astrophysics at the University
- 1:00of Southern Queensland. Jonty, hello.
- 1:02Jonti Horner: Noon. How are you?
- 1:03Andrew Dunkley: I'm m all right. Can you imagine Fred Watson
- 1:05playing golf?
- 1:06Jonti Horner: No, uh, not sure. I mean, growing up in
- 1:08Yorkshire, the weather wasn't always suited
- 1:10to it and we were too busy in gravel anyway,
- 1:13so.
- 1:14Andrew Dunkley: Yeah, took
- 1:17a moment. I got that. Yes, yes.
- 1:20Uh, used to look clean with the tongues.
- 1:22Jonti Horner: Used to have to get up in the morning at 10
- 1:24o' clock at night, half an hour before I went
- 1:25to bed.
- 1:27Andrew Dunkley: It's just one of the best pieces of comedy
- 1:30ever.
- 1:30Jonti Horner: And it's funny because it's true.
- 1:33Yes.
- 1:34Andrew Dunkley: Tell the young people that.
- 1:36Jonti Horner: They won't believe you.
- 1:39Andrew Dunkley: Oh gosh, it's all flooding back. Uh, we've
- 1:42got a lot to talk about so we better get
- 1:44started.
- 1:44Astrobiology Part two. Um,
- 1:47a couple of episodes ago we talked
- 1:49Astrobiology Part one, surprisingly. Um,
- 1:52let's just do a quick review.
- 1:54Jonti Horner: Yeah, this is a bit like the bit that really
- 1:56annoys you at the start of those multi
- 1:59episode shows where they're previously on
- 2:01Astrobiology. Um, but
- 2:05this is basically a case of Jonty talks too
- 2:07much and so therefore we run out of time. I
- 2:09mean, we don't need to sugarcoat that. And
- 2:11it's always a problem when you're talking
- 2:13about something you love and you're
- 2:14passionate about that. The time just flies by
- 2:16and hopefully it's flying by for the
- 2:18listeners as well, rather than boring them to
- 2:20tears. But you know, I can't really control
- 2:22that. In the first episode
- 2:25we talked a fair bit about the fact that
- 2:27we've always wondered whether there's life
- 2:29elsewhere. We talked a bit about the history
- 2:31in particular things like the ideas of
- 2:33potentially there being life on Mars that led
- 2:35to the panic over the War of the Worlds
- 2:37broadcast and the Fact that In the late
- 2:391800s, people were that convinced there
- 2:41already was known to be life on Mars, that
- 2:43when a major prize was offered for the
- 2:45detection of life elsewhere, Mars was
- 2:47explicitly excluded because that's too easy,
- 2:49you know. So we've had these ideas for a very
- 2:51long time, but finding evidence of life
- 2:54out there is really, really difficult.
- 2:57We've talked a fair bit about the search for
- 2:59life within the solar system. You know,
- 3:02places like looking at Mars, looking at
- 3:04Europa, all the icy moons. And we talk about
- 3:06that a lot in the questions that we week by
- 3:08week as well on the show.
- 3:09And one thing I've always been really
- 3:12interested in and passionate about is the
- 3:13search for life outside the solar system.
- 3:16Given that we've moved into the exoplanet
- 3:18era, and we talked a lot about this in the
- 3:20previous episode as well, we're now in a
- 3:22position where 30 years ago would have seemed
- 3:24impossible. Thirty years ago, we'd only just
- 3:26found the first planet for under the Stars,
- 3:28and only just answered that question of
- 3:30whether there are planets at all beyond the
- 3:32solar system. Now we're at a position where
- 3:35we are finding places that theoretically, in
- 3:37the future, we could search to see whether
- 3:40there's any evidence of life in those
- 3:42planetary systems. And in all honesty,
- 3:44despite some of the hyperbolic media
- 3:47articles that you sometimes see, we haven't
- 3:49yet found a planet that would really look
- 3:52like another Earth. But we're getting there,
- 3:53we're getting closer, we're getting to
- 3:55planets that are more similar to ours in
- 3:57size, at more similar distance from their
- 3:59stars, and we're learning more about them.
- 4:01And it's very feasible then in the next
- 4:03decade or so, that we can actually start
- 4:05looking to see whether there's any evidence
- 4:07of life on those planets. Now, that's a
- 4:09little bit separate to looking for signs of
- 4:12communicative alien technological
- 4:15life, which is a search for extraterrestrial
- 4:17intelligence or the search for
- 4:19extraterrestrial artefacts. There two areas
- 4:20of science that are fascinating, but they're
- 4:23more like a search for a needle in a hair
- 4:25sack, where we don't even know if there is
- 4:28life elsewhere, never mind intelligent life.
- 4:30I mean, some people argue whether there's
- 4:32intelligent life on Earth looking at the news
- 4:34at the minute, but looking for intelligent
- 4:36life that has reached certain technological
- 4:38level to communicate with us is challenging.
- 4:41It's one of those things if we don't know
- 4:42what we're looking for, but if we don't look,
- 4:44we'll never find it. But it still led to some
- 4:47really fascinating research, and there's a
- 4:49guy who works with us as part of our Planet
- 4:51Search Consortium, a guy called Jason Reutt
- 4:53in the US who spent some of his time actually
- 4:56thinking about alien megastructures, the
- 4:59kind of things that feature so heavily in
- 5:01some advanced science fiction, like Larry
- 5:03Niven's Ringworld or Dyson Spheres, these
- 5:06enormous structures that you can imagine a
- 5:09civilization building. If their technologies
- 5:11are far above ours, as ours is from the Stone
- 5:14Age, the idea that you could build something
- 5:16to harness all the material in your planetary
- 5:18system m harness all the energy from your
- 5:20star. Now, many people argue that while
- 5:22that's theoretically possible, it just
- 5:23wouldn't be worth the effort. But what
- 5:26Jason's been looking into is
- 5:29effectively not could people do
- 5:31this? But rather if they did, what would it
- 5:34look like? So it's not really putting any
- 5:36weight on the probability of
- 5:39these things existing, but rather saying,
- 5:41here are things we could imagine that are
- 5:44within the bounds of physical possibility to
- 5:46build. Even if they'd be on this
- 5:47technologically, what would they look like to
- 5:50our different kinds of telescopes? What would
- 5:52the signatures be? And, um, that work's
- 5:54really important because if you don't have an
- 5:57idea what these peculiar objects would look
- 5:59like, when you find something unusual, you
- 6:02won't have that thing to reference again to
- 6:04cheque it out. So both the search for
- 6:06extraterrestrial intelligence and the search
- 6:08for alien artefacts, a kind of
- 6:11a separate splinter of astrobiology that are
- 6:14ongoing, that are very precious to us here in
- 6:16Australia. Of course, we would have lost the
- 6:17Parks Radio telescope under the Liberal
- 6:20government in the 2010s in the previous
- 6:22decade because they wanted to shut it down
- 6:25and demolish it to save money. And it only
- 6:27kept going by a large investment
- 6:30as part of a project to listen
- 6:33for aliens. So, like 40. I remember
- 6:36that telescope has been used to search for
- 6:38extraterrestrial intelligence in the form of
- 6:40radio signals. And that has kept one of our,
- 6:43uh, incredible pieces of astronomical
- 6:44heritage in Australia. And something
- 6:46incredibly precious and beloved has kept it
- 6:48going and kept it standing despite the worst
- 6:50vagaries of politicians and
- 6:53all those challenges.
- 6:55Andrew Dunkley: Could you argue that we, uh, have
- 6:58already created a
- 7:00megastructure around Earth with the number of
- 7:03satellites that are currently in orbit and
- 7:05the so many thousands more that are going to
- 7:08be put up there in the near future?
- 7:09Jonti Horner: Certainly feels like that from the inside.
- 7:11Looking out. I mean, I'm enjoying all the
- 7:13photos. People are, uh, of Comet 2025
- 7:16R3 Pan stars at the minute, which behind
- 7:19both of us are our attempts. We're showing
- 7:20them off. Andrew's ever so proud from his
- 7:22attempt last night.
- 7:24Andrew Dunkley: My first ever comet.
- 7:25Jonti Horner: Fabulous photos that people are getting, but
- 7:27I've seen a lot of them getting photobombed
- 7:29by Starlink satellites. And I've got. I'm
- 7:32currently, thanks to learning something new
- 7:34about astrophotography over the last two
- 7:35days. I'm going back to images I took of
- 7:37Comet Atlas and Comet um, Church in Chan
- 7:39Atlas, which were the great comets of 2024
- 7:41and 2025 to reprocess those
- 7:44images. But one of my abiding Comet Atlas
- 7:47was I had this incredible view of it on the
- 7:49horizon. Took this long series of photos and
- 7:51every single blooming photo was ruined by a
- 7:54Starlink satellite because I got a Starlink
- 7:55train passing overhead that had recently been
- 7:57launched. All of which went straight through
- 7:59the middle of the comet and rendered all the
- 8:01photos unusable on my only really good clear
- 8:03night. Now, I may be able to solve it, but
- 8:06that isn't quite at the megastructure stage
- 8:08yet for me in that I suspect with the
- 8:11level of technology we've got now or in the
- 8:13near future, that network of
- 8:16satellites around the Earth, uh, wouldn't be
- 8:17something we could detect orbiting a planet
- 8:20around another star. Right. They're not there
- 8:22yet, but they're the forebears of something
- 8:24that could be. Now, being that
- 8:27they're around a planet rather than a star,
- 8:29their signature will be different. And given
- 8:31that we are very skilled now at
- 8:34broadcasting in one direction rather than
- 8:36many, and that broadcasting directionally
- 8:38rather than broadcasting the boy band one
- 8:40direction should be said, um, broadcasting
- 8:44in a directional sense. We are moving towards
- 8:46the point where we're going to stop shrieking
- 8:48like a screaming infant into the cosmos
- 8:50anyway. So it may be that we're going to go
- 8:52radio silent fairly soon, and satellites like
- 8:54that are going to be part of that journey.
- 8:57But I think they are an indication of how
- 8:59quickly these things can happen. You know, if
- 9:01we were talking a decade ago, we'd have been
- 9:03talking about a couple of thousand satellites
- 9:05orbiting Earth. We're now talking about
- 9:07roughly 50,000. With plants have more than a
- 9:09million within the next decade, it's getting
- 9:13quite terrifying, actually. As much from the
- 9:16atmosphere and climate side of things as
- 9:18anything else. You know, if we have a million
- 9:20Starlink satellites in orbit in five years or
- 9:2310 years time, they have an average lifetime
- 9:26of five years, which means we'd have more
- 9:27than 500 per day burning up in the
- 9:29atmosphere. And that's
- 9:32a factor of 100, if not more times
- 9:35material entering the atmosphere on a daily
- 9:37basis than we get from the background of
- 9:39space stuff falling in. We'll be running an
- 9:42experiment in atmospheric science that we've
- 9:44never run, dumping hundreds of
- 9:47tonnes of aluminium into the upper atmosphere
- 9:49every day.
- 9:50Andrew Dunkley: Yeah, what's the effect going to be? And
- 9:52that's the $64,000 question, I suppose.
- 9:55Jonti Horner: But now the interesting thing there, coming
- 9:57back to the astrobiology, is that might
- 10:00well create a signature in the Earth's
- 10:02atmosphere that would be detectable
- 10:05from observers from around another star.
- 10:08Because one of the ways that we would look
- 10:10for biosignatures, at least early
- 10:13on, will be to look at the light
- 10:16from a star reaching us whilst a given
- 10:19planet is transiting between us and the star,
- 10:21so blocking a bit of that star's light. We
- 10:24can currently do this with giant planets,
- 10:25Jupiter sized, and a fraction of the light
- 10:28from the star passes through the planet's
- 10:30atmosphere. And you get imprinted on the
- 10:33stars like the chemical fingerprint of the
- 10:35constituents of the outer layers of the
- 10:37atmosphere where the lights pass through in
- 10:39the form of absorption lines. And um, by
- 10:41studying them, we can work out some of the
- 10:43chemical species that are prevalent there and
- 10:45even learn a bit about the structure of the
- 10:46atmosphere, the presence of clouds, things
- 10:48like that. Now when we get to the point where
- 10:51we've got all those satellites burning up in
- 10:53our atmosphere, imagining with the kind of
- 10:56technology that we're looking at developing
- 10:57within the next decade or so, or maybe a
- 11:00little bit longer, imagining being on a
- 11:02nearby star looking at the sun while the
- 11:04Earth is transiting, you're suddenly
- 11:06introducing a huge spike of aluminium and
- 11:09into the absorption in an Earth like planet's
- 11:11atmosphere. And there is no natural way that
- 11:14I'm aware of that you could get that.
- 11:17So that would not only be a sign of something
- 11:19way going on, it would be a bio signature of
- 11:21technologically developed life that is not
- 11:24quite so developed as to have learned that
- 11:26pollution is bad.
- 11:28Andrew Dunkley: Maybe that's how we find an
- 11:30intelligent species, uh, beyond Earth.
- 11:33They find us first and send us a, you
- 11:36know, welcome pack.
- 11:37Jonti Horner: Yes. 10 helpful things you can do to fix your
- 11:40problems. Stop burning things up in the
- 11:42atmosphere.
- 11:44Andrew Dunkley: Um, yes, yeah, they may have already
- 11:47learned that lesson, but um, yeah, okay,
- 11:50so that's where we're at so far. Where do we
- 11:52go from here on the astrobiology
- 11:55train?
- 11:55Jonti Horner: Well, where we moved to in the latter part of
- 11:58the last astrobiology episode
- 12:00was my argument that
- 12:03you can't just look at a planet and say it's
- 12:05at the right temperature in the habitable
- 12:07zone. Um, we can look There. Whee.
- 12:10It kind of feels a bit like that when you
- 12:12read a lot of storeys, that the only
- 12:15consideration that comes into play is how far
- 12:16the planet is from its star. And I think
- 12:19instead, it's fairer to say that there are a
- 12:21huge variety of factors that can make
- 12:24one planet more or less suitable for the
- 12:27development of life and therefore for the
- 12:28observability of life on planets around other
- 12:31stars. And therefore, given that the
- 12:33observations to find life are going to be
- 12:35overwhelmingly the hardest we've ever had to
- 12:37carry out, we'll have hundreds, if not
- 12:40thousands of targets to choose from, but
- 12:41we'll only be able to look at a tiny handful
- 12:43of them in detail at first. So we need to be
- 12:46very careful about where we look. The
- 12:48proximity of the planet and its host star to
- 12:50the sun will be important because the closer
- 12:53the star is to a zombie we get for a given
- 12:55brightness of star, and also the more widely
- 12:58separated on the sky a star and planet will
- 13:00be for a given orbital distance between them.
- 13:02Closer they are, the more widely separated
- 13:04they are. And while people listening can't
- 13:06see this, I'm at the minute pointing fingers
- 13:08up at the side of my eyes to Andrew and then
- 13:10moving them towards the camera. Fingers are
- 13:12the same distance apart, but they get wider
- 13:14and wider apart on the screen as they get
- 13:15closer. Yeah. So there are clear reasons that
- 13:18we will look at stars that are nearer to
- 13:21us rather than further away. But beyond
- 13:23that, I think it's really important to
- 13:25consider all the different things that could
- 13:28factor in to make a given planet more
- 13:30suitable or less suitable for the
- 13:33development of life, and view them as like
- 13:36sliders on a mixing board in a sound studio,
- 13:39where you can fine tune things to see which
- 13:41gets the best sound, which gets the best
- 13:43score. You can rank your targets and
- 13:46you can start with the most promising ones,
- 13:48because with limited resources, you don't
- 13:50just want to do an unbiased survey, you want
- 13:52to instead maximise your chances of a
- 13:54positive result. Now, we're heavily biassed.
- 13:56We only know of one kind of life and that's
- 13:58Earth life. So we are very biassed towards
- 14:01looking for places that could support life
- 14:03like Earth life, because that's the only kind
- 14:05of life we do know exists that'll factor into
- 14:08it as well. But in the previous episode,
- 14:10towards the end, we talked about the way in
- 14:12which the location in the galaxy could
- 14:13potentially influence this, with the caveat,
- 14:16of course, that, uh, we're going to be
- 14:17looking at everything nearby. So whilst
- 14:19that's interesting scientifically, it's not
- 14:20that relevant. And then we also talked about
- 14:23the way that the nature of the stars that the
- 14:25planet orbits can influence things. And uh,
- 14:28not just from the point of view of is a star,
- 14:30ah, stable or single, but down to more subtle
- 14:32things like the fact that stars brighten over
- 14:35time. So just because a planet is in the
- 14:37habitable zone now doesn't mean it's been in
- 14:39that zone for long enough for life to become
- 14:42well established.
- 14:42So we talked about all that, where we
- 14:45finished up though we didn't get to my own
- 14:48personal favourite parts of the science and
- 14:50the stuff I'm more directly involved with,
- 14:52which are the more local influences on the
- 14:54planet, that is the influence of the
- 14:57planetary system in which that planet moves,
- 14:59all the other planets and all the debris
- 15:00therein, but also the impact of the planet
- 15:03itself, what it's made of, how it behaves.
- 15:06And there's a lot of subtlety in that that.
- 15:08When I prepared with my old mentor, Professor
- 15:10Barry Jones this review article on this 16
- 15:12years ago now, we dug into and it
- 15:15highlighted to me how none of these questions
- 15:18can be answered from people within a single
- 15:20research silo at all. You need researchers
- 15:23from all different disciplines of human
- 15:24experience, from the sciences, the biological
- 15:27sciences, physical sciences, geosciences,
- 15:29chemistry and astronomers all to come
- 15:31together. You probably also need philosophers
- 15:34and archaeologists to come into the
- 15:36discussion to talk about, about how we look
- 15:38and why we look and what we look for. And
- 15:40that's particularly true when we start moving
- 15:43from simple life to life that could talk
- 15:46back to us. And a very dear friend of mine in
- 15:48Australia who Fred Watson probably knows very
- 15:50well as well is Professor Alice Gorman down
- 15:52at Adelaide, who's a space archaeologist and
- 15:55has given some of the most astonishing and
- 15:57mind blowing talks I've ever seen from the
- 15:59point of view of someone who is trained in
- 16:01archaeology looking at the record of human
- 16:04space flight and what we should do to
- 16:06preserve artefacts like the Apollo landing
- 16:08site for future generations. Generations how
- 16:09we should consider that
- 16:13Andrew Dunkley: I absolutely agree because
- 16:16it was probably one of the
- 16:19greatest achievements in human history, if
- 16:21not the greatest achievement in human
- 16:23history. I mean inventing the wheel probably
- 16:25would have been a pretty cool thing too, but
- 16:27I don't know where that happened or when and
- 16:29they never would have thought to commemorate
- 16:31it. But um, it is something that
- 16:34should, should, you know, when we eventually
- 16:37have permanent residents on the moon,
- 16:39at least need to put a cyclone fence around
- 16:42it just for the time being until we can build
- 16:45a proper structure to protect
- 16:48it.
- 16:48Jonti Horner: Probably a good place to have rabbit proof
- 16:49fence because that will, that'll do the job.
- 16:52Andrew Dunkley: Um, yeah, well, you know that rabbits will
- 16:55ultimately be on the moon. They tend to be
- 16:57everywhere else.
- 16:58Jonti Horner: Um, now one of the greatest conference talks
- 17:00ever witnessed actually was a talk by a list
- 17:02talking about archaeology. And it was from
- 17:03the education and biases
- 17:06point of view. And I know this is already a
- 17:08bit off topic, but it's a storey I think
- 17:10really well worth repeating. Alice is an
- 17:12archaeologist and so she teaches archaeology
- 17:14students and she gave this talk about how she
- 17:16took a group of her uh, final year students
- 17:19to this site in Fairlie Regional New South
- 17:21Wales for a two day dig. Basically go out
- 17:24there, dig and come back to me with what you
- 17:25find and tell me about the storey of the
- 17:27site. And after two days all these
- 17:30young students came back and said, look, we
- 17:31didn't really find much, we found a few
- 17:33Aboriginal artefacts and that's kind of
- 17:35interesting, but all we found was a load of
- 17:37rubbish. We found all these blooming cable
- 17:38ties and bits of plastic that are polluting
- 17:40the site. What she then went on to do
- 17:43was the whole point was that the cable ties
- 17:46were actually the archaeology that she was
- 17:48interested in. So she went um, on and um,
- 17:50said in the talk that this was an old
- 17:52decommissioned listening station that had
- 17:54been built I think in like the late 1940s,
- 17:56post World War II, and operated into maybe
- 17:58the late 60s, early 70s before being
- 18:00demolished and removed. But by looking at the
- 18:03cable ties where they'd been identified had
- 18:05knowing a little bit about how cable ties and
- 18:08cable tie technology changed over the years,
- 18:10you could not only map out exactly where all
- 18:12the buildings had been and where the wire
- 18:14runs have been and get the structure of this
- 18:16long vanished building, you could also
- 18:19work out which bits were built when. And um,
- 18:22the whole importance here was partly that
- 18:24whole thing of one man's trash is another
- 18:25man's treasure, but it's also how
- 18:28as a scientist and a researcher, uh,
- 18:31you will miss things and you'll make mistakes
- 18:34because of your own personal biases that are
- 18:36quite often unconscious. And in this case for
- 18:39these students who've been studying
- 18:40archaeology, their unconscious bias was that
- 18:43anything modern is not archaeology. That's
- 18:46rubbish in the way of good archaeology. And
- 18:48so they totally miss the point. And it's a
- 18:50fabulous learning thing. It's why as
- 18:52scientists we use statistics so much. I know
- 18:54there's all this stuff about you can show
- 18:56anything with statistics, damn lies and
- 18:58statistics, all the rest of it. But
- 19:00fundamentally the reason that we use
- 19:01statistics as a tool school is because we as
- 19:04humans are biassed we've got this incredible
- 19:06evolutionary ability to see patterns when
- 19:09they're barely there, but we also have a very
- 19:11strong ability to see patterns that we expect
- 19:13to see when those patterns aren't actually
- 19:15there. And, um, that's certainly true of the
- 19:18canals on Mars. You know, Giovanni
- 19:20Schiaparelli saw these canals, these
- 19:23channels on, um, Mars, which I think the best
- 19:25explanation is that Mars was really bright.
- 19:27He had a big telescope and he was actually
- 19:29seeing the projection of his own capillaries
- 19:30in his eye, like I'm gonna see tomorrow when
- 19:33I get my eye test at the opticians and they
- 19:34do the bright light thing. But all these
- 19:37other observers with less good eyes and less
- 19:38good telescopes suddenly started seeing the
- 19:40canals. And it's this
- 19:43whole thing of when you're really straining
- 19:45at the limits of your vision, you see what
- 19:47you think you're going to see, not what there
- 19:48actually is. And that's true with our data.
- 19:51Uh, therefore, you use statistics
- 19:54to give you a feel for whether what you're
- 19:55seeing is significant or not, or whether it
- 19:57exists in the first place. And that's a way
- 20:00of us combating those biases. Now, that wasn'
- 20:03in that way to the archaeology students who
- 20:05thought that cable ties were rubbish, but it
- 20:07was a fabulous reminder of how we really
- 20:10need to be aware not only of the explicit
- 20:12biases, which are the things we choose to do.
- 20:15If they're doing a survey of people on hair
- 20:18loss and they say we interviewed men between
- 20:2018 and 30, that's clearly biassed to
- 20:23be for men between 18 and 30, not for men of
- 20:25our age, for example. That's an explicit
- 20:27bias, it's one that's a conscious choice.
- 20:29Implicit biases are the sneaky ones, where
- 20:31you don't realise you're making them. And
- 20:33that's why I've made it so clear up front
- 20:35here that we can imagine
- 20:38all kinds of life. Science fiction does it
- 20:40wonderfully, but our implicit bias is that,
- 20:43uh, when we talk about the search for life,
- 20:44at least in the very short term, we're
- 20:46actually looking for life like us, not you
- 20:49and I, but lifelike Earth, uh, life based on
- 20:51a planet with oceans, living on the surface,
- 20:54modifying the atmosphere, because that's the
- 20:56one kind of life we know exists, but also
- 20:58because that's the one kind of life we could
- 21:00probably identify with our observations. Life
- 21:02beneath the ice on Europa is fascinating, but
- 21:05we can't see it in the solar system. We
- 21:07wouldn't have a prayer if Europa was found
- 21:09orbiting another star, because the ice is in
- 21:11the way life on a surface that modifies an
- 21:14atmosphere is at least something we
- 21:16theoretically could detect. So that's making
- 21:18the implicit explicit.
- 21:21Andrew Dunkley: Gotcha. All right, we're gonna take a breath,
- 21:24uh, and get back to Astrobiology Part 2
- 21:27on Space Nuts.
- 21:30Let's take a little break from the to tell
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- 23:47Jonti Horner: 3, 2, 1
- 23:50space nuts.
- 23:51Andrew Dunkley: And you're with Andrew Dunkley and Professor
- 23:54Jonty Horner okay, what next,
- 23:57Jonty, in this search for
- 23:59extraterrestrial life?
- 24:01Jonti Horner: Well, I think we come back to moving away
- 24:03from the diversions of archaeology and stuff
- 24:05to the factors that could make a planet more
- 24:08or less suitable as a target. And like I
- 24:11said, we talked about the galaxy, we talked
- 24:12about the stars. To me, as a person who
- 24:15comes originally from a solar system
- 24:16background, particularly fascinated with
- 24:18comets and asteroids and stuff like that,
- 24:21there are a lot of factors that have been
- 24:23proposed that relate to
- 24:26the interaction of planets and the
- 24:28interaction with the debris that's around
- 24:30that could render planets more or less
- 24:32suitable as targets. Now one
- 24:35example of this is the stability of orbits.
- 24:37You know, there are a variety of different
- 24:40models of the solar system's youth, some of
- 24:42which suggest that there were periods of
- 24:44chaotic instability where the planets orbits
- 24:46got stirred up, planets maybe even swapped
- 24:49orbits. Now this is the kind of thing we can
- 24:51model. And when we discover planetary
- 24:53systems, we can take the planets that we
- 24:56think are there and put them into computer
- 24:58software to run their orbits forward and back
- 25:00in time to see how they behave. And that's
- 25:03actually part of my day to day work. That's
- 25:05the technology I use and lots of tools I've
- 25:08used in the past to kill planetary systems
- 25:10that people thought were there because I run
- 25:12simulations and showed they're simply not
- 25:14stable on very short timescales.
- 25:17But on longer time scales, these kind of
- 25:18perturbations can have a significant impact
- 25:22on the orbits of planets. You can get
- 25:24significant shifts over time. You can get
- 25:27encounters and stirring up, which means
- 25:29sometimes that a planet will be on an orbit
- 25:32now that is not the orbit it's occupied in
- 25:34the past. And uh, those are things that we
- 25:37could probably pull out, tease out from the
- 25:38simulation kind of work that I do. And
- 25:40obviously a planet that is now in the
- 25:43habitable zone, um, but that was previously
- 25:45well outside it would not be a good place to
- 25:47look. Even though it looks good now, it's not
- 25:50great. It's like, I guess, you know, you've
- 25:52got two petri dishes in front of you that you
- 25:54could look at for life, but you can tell that
- 25:56one of them's been absolutely melted in a
- 25:58fire. It's at room temperature now, but that
- 26:00doesn't mean it always has been that same
- 26:02kind of idea. So that on a coarse scale has
- 26:04an effect. But there's a subtler version of
- 26:06that that I've done a little bit of work on
- 26:08in the past. And I've got a PhD student
- 26:10working with me at the moment minute, who's
- 26:12going to look into this a lot more. A
- 26:13wonderful student called Amber Tilly. It's
- 26:16the idea of the Milankovitch cycles.
- 26:19Now, on Earth, we
- 26:22look at climate change in the short term as
- 26:24being a big problem because it's a very rapid
- 26:26change that is being caused by human action.
- 26:29But on much longer timescales, the climate of
- 26:32Earth is periodically variable. We've had ice
- 26:34ages and interglacial periods for the last 2
- 26:37or 3 million years, which are the direct
- 26:39result of the subtle nudges and tweaks on
- 26:42the, uh, Earth from all the other objects in
- 26:44the solar system, primarily the other
- 26:46planets, and not mainly Jupiter to be honest.
- 26:48But most of the planets contribute. These are
- 26:51called the Milankovitch cycles. They have a
- 26:54number of effects. Firstly, the Earth on its
- 26:56axis precesses. It wobbles with a period of
- 26:59about 23,000 years. So our polar
- 27:02axis, which is tilted by currently 23 and a
- 27:04half degrees to the plane of our orbit,
- 27:07wobbles around like a kid's wobbly spinning
- 27:09toy coming to a stop. It precesses, wobbles
- 27:12around a bit like the thing in Inception
- 27:13about to fall over. You see this procession?
- 27:16That's a procession of the equinoxes. That's
- 27:18why your horoscopes are wrong. While it's one
- 27:20of the many reasons that your horoscopes are
- 27:22wrong, but it's particularly why your
- 27:23horoscopes are out by one particular one
- 27:26full calendar month. Because the
- 27:29horoscopes are based on where the sun is, was
- 27:31in the sky at that date 2,000 years ago.
- 27:35And, um, the axis of the Earth has wobbled
- 27:37round, so it's now one constellation round.
- 27:39So when the sun is in Aries, according to
- 27:42your horoscope, it's actually now in Pisces,
- 27:45all because of the wobble. That wobble takes
- 27:4723,000 years to complete. That means that
- 27:50the direction that the Earth is pointing
- 27:52changes over time. Essentially. Added
- 27:55to that, you've got a very slight wobble up
- 27:57and down where the tilt fire axis, which is
- 27:59currently 23 and a half degrees, changes from
- 28:02about 22 to, to 24 degrees, rocking back and
- 28:04forward. So that causes the size of the
- 28:07Arctic and Antarctic circles to grow and
- 28:09shrink very slightly. On um, top of all that,
- 28:12you've then got the Earth's orbit around the
- 28:13sun flexing and tilting. Its shape
- 28:16becomes more circular and more elongated,
- 28:19more eccentric. With a longer period period,
- 28:21I think about 100,000 years, something like
- 28:23that, our orbit, compared to the orbits of
- 28:26Jupiter and Saturn, tilts a little bit up and
- 28:28down the inclination changes, which adds to
- 28:31the change of the tilt in our spin axis a
- 28:33little bit. We also have the Earth's orbit
- 28:36precessing around in just the same way our
- 28:37poles do, and that's a little bit harder to
- 28:39visualise. But what that means is that the
- 28:42direction, if you drew a line from the sun
- 28:45through the Earth and out into space at, ah,
- 28:47the point the Earth was at perihelion closest
- 28:49to the sun, that direction will
- 28:52gradually move round over time, doing a full
- 28:54lap with a period of several tens of
- 28:56thousands of years. So our perihelion
- 28:58possession processes as well, all of the,
- 29:01that combined means that, uh,
- 29:04on average the amount of energy reaching the
- 29:06Earth's polar regions, averaged over a given
- 29:08year, varies with type. Sometimes the
- 29:11poles get a bit more energy and the ice
- 29:14sheets retreat. Sometimes they get a bit less
- 29:16energy and the ice sheets come back towards
- 29:18the equator again. Now, there's a lot of
- 29:20complex feedback from the Earth because ice
- 29:22is more reflective than water or land. So
- 29:24when ice is growing, it has a tendency to
- 29:26keep growing, and when it's shrinking, that
- 29:29has a tendency to run away as well. So you've
- 29:31got all these different feedbacks. But what
- 29:33that means is that on the Earth we've got
- 29:35these periodic variations in the
- 29:38amount of energy at the poles which lead to
- 29:40periodic glaciations and interglacial
- 29:42periods. That's the Milankovitch cycles.
- 29:45It means that on timescales of tens of
- 29:47thousands of years, our climate is relatively
- 29:49changeable. What would
- 29:52happen if the planets were on different
- 29:54orbits or if you were in a
- 29:57planetary system with a totally different
- 29:59architecture? The result would be very
- 30:01different Milankovitch cycles. You'd have
- 30:04different periods and you'd also have
- 30:06different amplitudes. You could imagine
- 30:08scenarios where instead of our Earth rocking
- 30:10a little bit from 22 to 24 degrees and back
- 30:13with its polar axis, it could be like Mars,
- 30:16whose spin axis varies chaotically, can even
- 30:18tip over on its side. You could have systems
- 30:21where there's barely any change whatsoever.
- 30:23You've got this full gap. Now the beauty is,
- 30:25again, we've got the tools to test this.
- 30:28We can run the kind of computational
- 30:30simulations that I've spent my career doing
- 30:33and, uh, model the orbits of a planet over
- 30:35time under the influence of all the other
- 30:36planets. And I did a lot of simulations of
- 30:39this between 2012 and 2020. I
- 30:42kept coming back to the idea, but never got
- 30:44around to publishing it until we got to 2020,
- 30:46where I published it with, um, Stephen Cain
- 30:49from University of California, Riverside. Pam
- 30:51Vervoort, who was his PhD student at the
- 30:53time, a couple of other people, people where
- 30:55we said, what is the influence of Jupiter on
- 30:58our Milankovitch cycles? What would happen if
- 31:00you move Jupiter closer to the sun or further
- 31:02away? If you made Jupiter's
- 31:04orbit more eccentric or less eccentric, how
- 31:07would that change the period and, um,
- 31:09amplitude of the Earth's? Milankovic cycles
- 31:12did the test. And in many cases, moving
- 31:14Jupiter destroyed the solar system, which
- 31:16meant the Earth wouldn't be here, which was
- 31:18kind of fun, but not very helpful. But for
- 31:21the versions of the solar system where the,
- 31:23the Earth was not removed, we got to see
- 31:26the range, the variety of Milankovitch cycles
- 31:28we would have from moving Jupiter in a bit
- 31:31closer or moving it a bit further away. And
- 31:33for those really interested, we moved Jupiter
- 31:34in as far as 3 Au from the sun, out as far as
- 31:377 Au from the sun, where 5 Au is about where
- 31:40it is at the minute, 5.2. What we
- 31:42found, which is quite surprising, is that the
- 31:44Earth's, uh, Milankovitch cycles are neither
- 31:47unusually big or unusually small. They're
- 31:49somewhere in the middle. Middle. Which is a
- 31:50bit of an argument against a hypothesis
- 31:52called the Rare Earth hypothesis.
- 31:55This idea has been around for about 20, 25,
- 31:5830 years, and I've never really liked it.
- 32:01It's the idea that life on Earth is such a
- 32:04remarkable, incredible fluke
- 32:07that we will never find life elsewhere. And
- 32:09the authors put forward all these
- 32:11peculiarities about the Earth, uh, and argue
- 32:13that without them we would not be here.
- 32:16And it's a bit of a philosophical thing, but
- 32:19I think it's very dangerous to look at
- 32:21somewhere that has life and say, this place
- 32:23has all these unusual things and they are
- 32:25therefore required for life because we've
- 32:27never found life elsewhere. A good example is
- 32:29the presence of a large moon. And we'll talk
- 32:31about this a bit more later on. We have life
- 32:33on Earth and we have a big moon, so it's
- 32:35natural to think you need a big moon to have
- 32:37life. But we won't know that until we find
- 32:39life elsewhere. But that led to this argument
- 32:42of rare Earth life will be uncommon in the
- 32:44universe. If rare Earth were true,
- 32:47then when you look at something like the
- 32:48Milankovitch cycles, you would expect our
- 32:50Earth to be unusual in some way,
- 32:54to have conditions that favour life over your
- 32:56typical system. And we simply don't find that
- 32:59our Milankovitch cycles are fairly run of the
- 33:01mill. They're not big, they're not small,
- 33:03they're not fast. They're not slow, they're
- 33:06somewhere in the middle. Now,
- 33:08um, sorry, Pam went with that. Pam lava vault
- 33:11was.
- 33:11She then took the output of that and run it
- 33:13into climate modelling software, which was
- 33:15fabulous. And she published that work, work
- 33:17with us in 2022, where
- 33:20she was able to link the Milankovitch cycles.
- 33:22We predicted if you moved Jupiter around
- 33:25with the amplitude and frequency of the
- 33:28ice ages, we'd get. And it was really
- 33:29interesting because it turned out that when
- 33:31you factor in some of the feedback mechanisms
- 33:33that are in climate modelling, you actually
- 33:35could change the Earth's Milkovitch cycles a
- 33:37little bit and get very drastically different
- 33:39ice ages, much more frequent and shallower,
- 33:42or much less frequent and deeper just by
- 33:45small changes. Now, now, it's all
- 33:47fascinating just from the solar system point
- 33:49of view, but what we're really doing is we're
- 33:51putting down tools that when we find
- 33:54planets that could be suitable, we can do
- 33:56these same tests. We can look at them and
- 33:58say, we're thinking that you might be a
- 34:00target for life. Let's see what your
- 34:02Melankovic cycles are like. Let's see how
- 34:04stable your climate is. And if we find
- 34:06somewhere that flops between snowball Earth
- 34:09and a hothouse every 10 years, or that has
- 34:12incredibly long snowball Earth periods
- 34:13followed by short periods of temperate
- 34:15climate climate, even though everything else
- 34:18looks good, that's probably not as, uh,
- 34:19suitable for life as somewhere that is
- 34:21temperate all the time. So we can use that as
- 34:24a bit of a filter. And that's where the new
- 34:26PhD student we've got, Amber Tilly, comes in.
- 34:28Amber's, um, going to be doing the same kind
- 34:30of work, moving it forward, where she's going
- 34:32to be looking at a whole slew of different
- 34:33parameters to see how the
- 34:36Milankovitch cycles change as you vary
- 34:39things. She's both going to look at what
- 34:41would happen if the Earth was a bit more
- 34:42massive or less massive. How would that
- 34:44change things? Because of the feedback, you
- 34:46make Earth more massive, it interacts,
- 34:48interacts more with other things, stirs them
- 34:49up, you get a feedback there. She's also
- 34:52going to look, working with colleagues of
- 34:54ours overseas, at, uh, models of planet
- 34:57formation that form planetary systems similar
- 34:59to the solar system as theoretical
- 35:02data, and say, what would the Milankovitch
- 35:04cycles be like in this hypothetical system?
- 35:07So it's not just a purely hypothetical
- 35:09question, it's something we can actually dig
- 35:10into and, um, we can test. And I think
- 35:13that's fundamental to science. It's no good
- 35:15just arguing something you want to be able to
- 35:16Test. Test it.
- 35:18Andrew Dunkley: Yeah. I suppose what you're suggesting is
- 35:21that by mucking around with
- 35:24what we know and making slight alterations,
- 35:27it gives you an idea of what to look
- 35:30for going forward in identifying
- 35:33potential targets.
- 35:34Jonti Horner: Absolutely. And it's good because one of the
- 35:37reasons that you'd want to use the Earth is
- 35:39because we've got a ground truth. You can run
- 35:41the Earth with the current solar system
- 35:43parameters and put them into a climate model.
- 35:45And you should get what we see so we can
- 35:47ground truth it, which is really, really
- 35:49important. And, um, that is, I think, one of
- 35:51the main, most obvious ways where even in a
- 35:54dynamically stable system, a system that
- 35:56isn't tearing itself apart, interaction
- 35:58between planets could have a significant
- 36:00impact on habitability. And we want to look
- 36:03into it. It's really, really fascinating.
- 36:06Andrew Dunkley: Indeed it is. All right, um, we
- 36:08are talking astrobiology on this
- 36:11special episode of Space Nuts with Professor
- 36:14Jonty Horner.
- 36:15Back in.
- 36:19Okay, we checked all four systems and
- 36:21Jonti Horner: being with a go, space nets.
- 36:23Andrew Dunkley: Jody, I thought we might just start off
- 36:25this, uh, final segment with a
- 36:28question from the audience. Uh, it's funny
- 36:30because this question's come in before any of
- 36:33these astrobiology episodes have
- 36:36been released. And yet it's
- 36:39exactly what we've been talking about. This
- 36:41comes from Chris.
- 36:42Jonti Horner: Hi, um, I'm Chris from Axmouth in the uk.
- 36:46I'd, uh, just like to ask, um, given that
- 36:48interstellar travel to distance solar systems
- 36:50is likely to remain impractical for humans,
- 36:53um, do you think a more realistic long term
- 36:55strategy would be to
- 36:57Andrew Dunkley: seed the galaxy with the basic building
- 36:58blocks of life? Uh, for example,
- 37:01uh, sending autonomous probes carrying
- 37:04microbes or prebiotic material that could
- 37:06Jonti Horner: eventually take hold on suitable planets,
- 37:08even
- 37:09Andrew Dunkley: if that process takes thousands or millions
- 37:11of years.
- 37:12Jonti Horner: Thanks.
- 37:14Andrew Dunkley: There's a, uh, thought from Chris. So
- 37:17he's probably suggesting, you know, could we
- 37:19seed other planets? Uh, would that be
- 37:22the way to go? Uh, and autonomous,
- 37:25uh, vehicles. I think last
- 37:27time we talked about this a couple of
- 37:29episodes ago, you, you suggested it's,
- 37:32it's beyond us to actually
- 37:34send a human mission to another world
- 37:37to investigate life. But we could
- 37:41go the way of autonomous vehicles.
- 37:44Uh, but for the major
- 37:47distances, like the impossible distances, uh,
- 37:50we would have to come up with equipment in
- 37:53the future that could do it from a
- 37:56stable environment nearby. Um,
- 37:59I don't know how you want to tackle that
- 38:00question.
- 38:01Jonti Horner: There's a fair bit to it, and I mean, it
- 38:02reminds me of the wonderful Bobbyverse books
- 38:05that I've quite enjoyed. You know, um, the
- 38:07Storey of the Self Intelligent Von Neumann
- 38:09probes, which are, uh, easy listening and
- 38:11work very well as audiobooks.
- 38:14It's a challenging one. So we could
- 38:17do this. It would be feasible.
- 38:20The question would become whether it's
- 38:22ethical and right. Yes, and that's a really
- 38:25challenging one. Now, there is something that
- 38:27costs research missions
- 38:30a vast amount of money called planetary
- 38:32protection. And it's the idea that if we're
- 38:35sending a spacecraft that has a possibility
- 38:37of touching down on a place where we are
- 38:40currently interested in looking for life,
- 38:42where there could be life, such as Mars, such
- 38:45as Europa, uh, Ganymede, Titan, around
- 38:48Saturn. We don't want to take life with
- 38:50us because you don't want to find life on
- 38:52Mars only to discover it's what you took with
- 38:54you. And also we don't want to pollute or
- 38:56contaminate those environments. So there's a
- 38:59huge amount of effort and expense, goes into
- 39:02extreme sterilisation of spacecraft to kind
- 39:04of prevent exactly the hypothesis being
- 39:06discussed here. At the same time,
- 39:09that idea of populating the galaxy with
- 39:12simple life that could one day grow
- 39:15to resemblers or something else has
- 39:18cropped a few times in science fiction. I
- 39:20believe that was how Star Trek got
- 39:23around the fact that all of their humanoid
- 39:25species looked like people with makeup on.
- 39:28Um, which of course is a budgetary issue and
- 39:30a special effects issue. But they had an
- 39:32episode where people found the founders,
- 39:34which were an alien, ancient alien humanoid
- 39:37race at seed of the galaxy. And billions of
- 39:39years later all these different planets had
- 39:41grown humanoids that looked like them and.
- 39:43Oh, well, convenient job done. Stop asking us
- 39:46that question now, please. Effectively it
- 39:48is something we could do and the timescales
- 39:51would be immense. It's also something that,
- 39:53in all honesty, has already happened. There's
- 39:55this idea called panspermia, which is the
- 39:58idea that life could be transferred through
- 40:00space from planet to planet, carried by
- 40:02debris from impacts and talking. Thirty or
- 40:0540 years ago, it was viewed as very much
- 40:07crank science, not feasible. But every
- 40:09experiment that people have ever done
- 40:11suggests that it could work. And I've even
- 40:13had a PhD student just submit his thesis,
- 40:16Greg Davis, who has been looking at this
- 40:19from the point of view of the viability of
- 40:20bacteria transferred from Earth to Mars or
- 40:23Mars to Earth in the radiation environment in
- 40:26the solar system. And it seems to work.
- 40:29Now, to me, the fact that biological, uh,
- 40:32material from Earth will have rained down on
- 40:34Mars and Europa and Ganymede and everywhere
- 40:36else for the last 4 billion years
- 40:39probably means that we're being a bit over
- 40:40cautious with our planet protection efforts
- 40:43because we're trying not to take something
- 40:45there when it's already there, it's already
- 40:47been delivered. The other thing is that
- 40:49anything we take with us to a place that has
- 40:51an incredibly, incredibly different
- 40:52environment, if there is life there already,
- 40:55that life should hugely outcompete anything
- 40:57we take with us because it's better adapted
- 40:59for that environment. And that would be one
- 41:01of the challenges with this, is sending stuff
- 41:03out. It'd have to be lucky to get exactly the
- 41:05right environment to grow. But with the
- 41:06amount of real estate we've got out there it
- 41:09could happen. People have even in some more
- 41:12extreme sci fi suggested kind of
- 41:15this type approach as a way to
- 41:18begin terraforming planets ahead of human
- 41:20arrival. This idea that you could send
- 41:21generation ships which have to go
- 41:24slowly because they're really big and carry a
- 41:26lot of people. But you could send faster
- 41:28moving, smaller things first to start
- 41:31working on the biosphere of a planet to make
- 41:33it so that when we get there that planet is a
- 41:35suitable home. So there's a lot of ways it
- 41:37could be taken. Taken. I think to do it
- 41:40in the near future in an official organised
- 41:42way would require a significant shift in
- 41:44global morality in the way we think about
- 41:47other habitats. If we found that
- 41:49Mars absolutely has no life and
- 41:52possibly that it never had life, which I
- 41:54think is probably unlikely, then I could see
- 41:56people arguing then for terraforming.
- 41:58Similarly people have argued about, I think
- 42:00Carl Sagan suggested this, creating
- 42:03engineering bacteria that could float in the
- 42:06clouds of Venus and um, precipitate out the
- 42:08carbon to eventually make Venus a more
- 42:11habitable planet on long timescales. The idea
- 42:13of terraforming these worlds is real. But I
- 42:15think it would require either a state
- 42:18to go its own way because as we know, once
- 42:21things are up in space, ain't nobody going to
- 42:22stop you. Uh, as was the case with the
- 42:24Israeli spacecraft that spattered tamigards,
- 42:27um, water bears over the moon to show that
- 42:29they could, which was so dumb it's untrue.
- 42:33Um, yep, there are water bears on the moon,
- 42:36probably desiccated and dried up, but they
- 42:38can come back from that, we know that. Um, so
- 42:40you could have a nation just decide to do it
- 42:42anyway. At the end of the day, if a
- 42:44random government decided to send a
- 42:46spacecraft to Mars within a capsule inside
- 42:49laden with biological bacterial life
- 42:52to spurt out on the surface, no way we could
- 42:55stop them. And once it's done, it's done. Um,
- 42:57but I think the block to the question is not
- 43:00actually a scientific one, it's an ethical
- 43:02one and it's about how we, we choose to
- 43:04interact with the galaxy going forward and
- 43:06particularly our local environment. That'll
- 43:08determine at what stage we do that, if we
- 43:10ever do so. It's a really good question.
- 43:12Andrew Dunkley: It is. Uh, thanks for the uh, question,
- 43:14Chris. Uh, Chris, you might be interested to
- 43:16look up the BBC radio science
- 43:19fiction comedy called Paradise Lost in Space.
- 43:22Have you heard of this one? It's so funny.
- 43:24It's about two blokes who um, get ejected
- 43:28from a spaceship by an exploding toilet or
- 43:30something and they end up on a world that's
- 43:32occupied by uh, an insect, intelligent but
- 43:35very naive species. So
- 43:38basically what they do is they try to
- 43:41pass on their Earth knowledge and
- 43:44intelligence to these, these people
- 43:46and ultimately destroy the planet.
- 43:50Jonti Horner: It's a perfect reflection.
- 43:51Andrew Dunkley: Brilliant.
- 43:52Jonti Horner: It's very funny. Yes.
- 43:55Andrew Dunkley: Yeah, it's funny stuff. So yeah, it's called
- 43:58um, Paradise Lost in Space. I
- 44:01only remember it because we ran it as a
- 44:03series on the ABC some years ago and, and got
- 44:05a uh, fabulous response. And I always,
- 44:08I sat there in the studio while we were
- 44:10running it and I just cackled as to. Because
- 44:13I could imagine that's what we might do.
- 44:16Not on purpose, but um. Yeah. And it's what
- 44:19you say, it's the ethics of sending
- 44:23our ah, junk to other places that are already
- 44:26occupied. Yeah. Um,
- 44:29we're running out of time I suppose. But um,
- 44:32how do you want to wind this up? Uh, how do
- 44:33you.
- 44:34There's so much to talk about, it could go on
- 44:36for hours.
- 44:36Jonti Horner: I know more to talk about. I think I'll carry
- 44:38on until you kind of get the hook and pull me
- 44:41off about the different things that influence
- 44:43planet's habitability. Because we've talked
- 44:45about Milankovitch cycles. We also have as
- 44:48the influence of the planetary system impact
- 44:50us just as the dinosaurs, they had a very bad
- 44:53day. And there has historically been this
- 44:55idea that ties into the rare Earth thing that
- 44:57Jupiter is our friend and saviour and without
- 45:00Jupiter we'd be hit by asteroids more often
- 45:02and we wouldn't be here. And therefore life
- 45:04is rare in the universe. Um, idea
- 45:07basically that Jupiter is our bestest friend
- 45:09and it's honestly a lot of cobs wallop and
- 45:12it's both one of my favourite bits of
- 45:15research I ever did. And probably one of the
- 45:16biggest bugbears of my career is uh, I
- 45:19did work again with Barry Jones starting 20
- 45:22years ago for a few years that resulted in a
- 45:24series of pep called Jupiter Friend or Foe.
- 45:27And we did simulations to test the role of
- 45:29Jupiter in protecting us from impacts or not.
- 45:32And it turns out that Jupiter is not shielded
- 45:35all if you took Jupiter away, Earth would be
- 45:37hit less often. If however you
- 45:40replace Jupiter with a planet, the mass of
- 45:42Saturn, Earth would be hit more often than we
- 45:45are today. And with Jupiter, the mass it
- 45:47currently is, we'd be hit more than if it
- 45:49wasn't there, but less than if we put Saturn
- 45:50there. All down to the subtleties of how
- 45:53gravity all works. And so basically if you
- 45:55replace Jupiter with Saturn, it's like the
- 45:57anti Goldilocks case where you've lesser
- 45:59porridge with strychnine. But the reality is
- 46:01that Jupiter's role is complicated,
- 46:05best illustrated by Comet Lexell in
- 46:071770, which I always love. Comet Lexell was
- 46:11a great comet. It was very bright in our sky.
- 46:13Discovered by Charles Messier I think 1st of
- 46:15June 1770. Quickly got as
- 46:18bright as the brightest stars in the sky, but
- 46:19looked unusual. It was very big and fuzzy and
- 46:22it moved unusually rapidly across the sky at
- 46:24its quickest, covering 42 degrees in a single
- 46:26hour. When they worked out the orbit of this
- 46:29thing, they found a that it had come very
- 46:31close to the Earth. It passed within 2
- 46:32million kilometres, which is the close
- 46:34closest approach of a large comet in
- 46:37historical times. It also was moving
- 46:40on an orbit that was just less than six years
- 46:41in period. Big bright comet going around
- 46:44every six years. Why on Earth have we not
- 46:46seen it before? Why have we not seen it in
- 46:471764 or 1758? Well,
- 46:50when they worked out the orbit and run it
- 46:52back in time and this was hard at the time
- 46:54because they didn't have mechanical
- 46:56computers, they had human computers who sat
- 46:58there and did calculations with abakai and
- 47:00slide rules and all the rest of it. They
- 47:02found that three years before it nearly hit
- 47:04the Earth it was very close to Jupiter. In
- 47:07fact, prior to that it had been moving on an
- 47:08orbit that came nowhere near the Earth, that
- 47:11was probably hundreds or thousands of years
- 47:12in period and it was flying in to come
- 47:15nowhere near the inner solar system. When it
- 47:16had this close encounter with Jupiter that
- 47:18trapped it and threw it at the Earth and
- 47:20captured it onto the six year long Jupiter
- 47:22family comet orbit. So Jupiter took something
- 47:25that was coming nowhere near us and threw it
- 47:27out at us. We don't see the comet
- 47:30anymore because 2 times 6 years is
- 47:3312 years and Jupiter takes 12 years to go
- 47:34around the sun. So the comet did two laps in
- 47:37the time Jupiter took to take one. And when
- 47:39the comet got back out there again 12 years
- 47:42after the first encounter, Jupiter was there,
- 47:44grabbed hold of it and threw it away again,
- 47:45never to return. So in just this 12 year
- 47:48period, Jupiter threw something at us and
- 47:51then cleaned up after itself. And whether
- 47:53Jupiter's more of a shield or more of a
- 47:55threat is down to the balance of those two
- 47:56effects. Um, and what we found in our
- 47:59simulations is, to be honest with Jupiter, we
- 48:02get hit more than we would do if it wasn't
- 48:03there. That takes away the idea
- 48:06that it's our protector. It takes away the
- 48:09idea that you need a shield to shield a
- 48:11planet to prevent life from being wiped out.
- 48:14Another nail in the coffin of rare Earth. And
- 48:17it bugs me a bit that so many documentaries
- 48:19still trot out this trite idea that Jupiter
- 48:22shields us from impacts. And it's wonderful
- 48:24because I disprove that 20 years ago. It's
- 48:27much more complicated. But even that idea
- 48:29gets complicated because obviously we don't
- 48:31want to have the Earth punishingly, uh,
- 48:33pummelling because we'd be wiped out. But
- 48:36where the Earth formed in the solar system,
- 48:37it probably formed dry. We formed interior to
- 48:40the location of the ice line. So there wasn't
- 48:42any available solid water, the water was all
- 48:45gas. So how the Earth got its water was a
- 48:47long, outstanding problem, exacerbated by the
- 48:50fact that towards the end of our planet's
- 48:52formation, we got smashed into by an object
- 48:53the size of Mars, which stripped off a lot of
- 48:56the Earth's core and mantle and would have
- 48:57desiccated our planet because m water would
- 48:59have been in the. Or a mantle, in the crust
- 49:01and mantle. Sorry, up near the surface. Yeah.
- 49:04So where did the water come from? And Earth
- 49:06is actually a remarkably dry planet, um,
- 49:08particularly at the moment in Queensland. The
- 49:10idea is down here. Yeah, the idea is that our
- 49:13water, at least in significant part, was
- 49:15delivered from further out by impacts in what
- 49:18is often described as a late veneer.
- 49:21That's really interesting air because that's
- 49:23a stochastic process, it's random, it's
- 49:25driven by the orbits of the planets and the
- 49:27cleanup phase of solar system formation.
- 49:29So different planetary systems will give
- 49:31planets with different amounts of water. But
- 49:34it's also indicating that you actually don't
- 49:36want too much shielding, you need
- 49:38impacts. Because if the Earth had never had
- 49:40the impacts, we'd have never got enough water
- 49:42for life to develop and thrive. On top of
- 49:45that, if the Earth didn't have enough
- 49:46impacts, the dinosaurs would never have been
- 49:48wiped out. And maybe you and I will be
- 49:50reptiles or maybe we'll be here, you know,
- 49:53so there's a whole aspect of that. Now,
- 49:55again, those Simulations I did, we can
- 49:58rerun through the planetary systems, we can
- 50:00find the debris belts in those systems, we
- 50:02can find the planets so we can model their
- 50:04impact rates. And I'd argue that we want to
- 50:06look somewhere that doesn't have too many
- 50:08impacts, but also doesn't have too few,
- 50:11because each of those could pose problems.
- 50:14That is a really big part of the storey
- 50:17and it feeds into the last point, really,
- 50:21which is the planet itself and a little bit
- 50:23tied to the large moon. So our Earth, it has
- 50:26been suggested again by the rare Earth crowd,
- 50:28that the large moon we have stabilises our
- 50:31atmosphere axis and has kept the Earth
- 50:33habitable. So therefore you need a giant
- 50:35satellite. But simulations by Dave
- 50:38Waltham, who's a guy I know very well in the
- 50:40uk, looked into this and what he found was
- 50:42that you could take the Moon away and, uh,
- 50:44the Earth's axis would still be fairly
- 50:46stable. It still wobbled between about 22 and
- 50:4824 degrees, maybe a little bit more. But
- 50:50quirkily, if you made the moon just 12
- 50:52kilometres larger in diameter,
- 50:55it would make the Earth's axis unstable and
- 50:57chaotic. So if the moon was only slightly
- 51:00larger, we would not be here. The
- 51:03other reason that a large moon has been
- 51:04suggested is that it drives bigger tides. And
- 51:07one of the common arguments for how life
- 51:09first got going and, um, for how life moved
- 51:12out of the oceans in both cases is to do with
- 51:14the large tidal intertidal areas that we
- 51:16have, where at low tide it's dry and at high
- 51:18tide it's underwater. And the idea is that
- 51:21without the moon those areas would be smaller
- 51:23and life would have had less chance to get
- 51:25going. I don't really buy that, because if
- 51:26you took the moon away, the tides of sun
- 51:29raises would still be half the size, so you'd
- 51:31still have substantial tides. But these are
- 51:33all the kind of questions people ask before
- 51:36you get to the planet itself. And the planet
- 51:38itself is where my head really hurt. Now, I'm
- 51:40not a geophysicist at
- 51:43all, so a lot of this was new to me. Now, we
- 51:45talked a little bit about the hydration. You
- 51:47could imagine anything from desert worlds to
- 51:49worlds with hundreds of kilometres depth of
- 51:51ocean. Now, if the ocean's too deep,
- 51:54the planet is probably habitable, but not
- 51:56detectably habitable because the life will be
- 51:59at the bottom of the ocean where the
- 52:00nutrients have been introduced by volc. But
- 52:02an ocean deeper than a few tens of kilometres
- 52:04is thought to become stagnant. And so it
- 52:07doesn't mix things up to the surface, so you
- 52:09don't want to look at water worlds that are
- 52:11ocean for hundreds or thousands of kilometres
- 52:13depth, but equally you want to have some mix
- 52:16of ocean and continent to allow all the
- 52:18carbon cycles and weathering to happen, to
- 52:20allow life to engage with the atmosphere. So
- 52:23that's a bit of a sweet spot there. But what
- 52:24I didn't realise was how critical
- 52:27water has been been to the
- 52:30maintenance of our atmosphere and um, thereby
- 52:33our climate against the vagaries of the solar
- 52:35wind and against the vagaries of plate
- 52:37tectonics. Now compare the Earth and Mars
- 52:40and the Earth is warm and wet. We've got a
- 52:42lovely thick atmosphere and we've not really
- 52:44lost much of our atmosphere. We've got the
- 52:46ozone layer which protects us to some degree
- 52:49from UV radiation. We've got a temperature
- 52:51inversion about 10 kilometres up in the
- 52:53atmosphere that traps water below that level.
- 52:55If water gets above that level, it freezes
- 52:57and falls back down. So the water can't get
- 52:59high enough to be ionised and split hydrogen
- 53:01and helium and lost. Mars doesn't have that.
- 53:05Mars doesn't have much of a magnetic field
- 53:06whereas the Earth does. And the magnetic
- 53:08field protects the atmosphere from being
- 53:10stripped away from the outside in. Mars
- 53:12doesn't have plate tectonics, but we do. And
- 53:15um, plate tectonics prevents the atmosphere
- 53:18from being precipitated out onto the surface
- 53:21through chemistry and trapped there because
- 53:23plate tectonics recycles the crust. So
- 53:25anything that chemically gets weathered onto
- 53:27Earth's surface gets put back into the
- 53:29atmosphere through volcanic volcanoes. So
- 53:32Mars and Earth probably started out looking
- 53:34very similar and are now very, very
- 53:36different. And so the nature of the planet
- 53:38itself is going to be a real important
- 53:40factor. And plate tectonics looks like it's
- 53:43going to be fairly key. Plate tectonics is a
- 53:46mechanism by which you stop the atmosphere
- 53:47getting precipitated out and frozen in onto
- 53:49the surface, which is a big part of what's
- 53:51happened m on Mars because of that recycling
- 53:53effect. But it also turns out that plate
- 53:56tectonics is key in ensuring the
- 53:58magnetic field is retained. And um, this is a
- 54:01bit that really hurt my head because I'm
- 54:03like, I'm not a geophysicist. Seems that on
- 54:06the Earth if the Earth didn't have plate
- 54:09tectonics, we'd probably have lost most of
- 54:11our magnetic field like Mars and like Venus.
- 54:15What's happening is that the magnetic field
- 54:16is driven by convection currents in the outer
- 54:19mantle. Like when you see water boiling in a
- 54:21kettle overturn, um, motion of mollie and
- 54:24metal Rising and falling. That
- 54:26convection can only happen if you've got a
- 54:28big temperature difference between the bottom
- 54:30and the top of the outer core. Sorry.
- 54:33In order to get that temperature difference,
- 54:35you need to be able to very effectively cool
- 54:37the top of the outer core because otherwise
- 54:39it would warm up so much convection would
- 54:40stop because you don't have enough
- 54:42temperature difference. The way the outer
- 54:44core is cooled is by convection in the
- 54:46mantle. That takes the heat away from the top
- 54:48of the outer core and brings it to the
- 54:49surface. We've got these huge convection
- 54:51cells in the mantle that transfer heat very
- 54:53quickly. Allowing cool the outer core's top
- 54:56to get this big temperature difference allows
- 54:59a motion that drives a magnetic field.
- 55:02That motion is also what drives plate
- 55:04tectonics. Now, the quirky thing that came
- 55:06out of all of this when I was reading about
- 55:07it is that, uh, if you run simulations of the
- 55:10motion of the Earth's mantle and the crust
- 55:12and the Earth is dry, the Earth is too small
- 55:15to sustain plate tectonics because the mantle
- 55:18is too stiff. If you have water
- 55:21and you mix water into the mantle, you
- 55:23lubricate, lubricate it. You allow convection
- 55:25in the mantle, which allows plate tectonics,
- 55:28which allows you to recycle the surface. But
- 55:31that plate tectonics also allows you to cool
- 55:33the outer core to maintain the magnetic
- 55:35field, allowing you to have that magnetic
- 55:37shield that protects your planet from the
- 55:39atmosphere being whittled away from the
- 55:40outside in by the solar wind. It
- 55:43seems that the storey of plate tectonics, the
- 55:46Earth's magnetic field and, um, the
- 55:48atmosphere being retained, is all tied
- 55:51together by water. Which brings us back to
- 55:53that delivery question. If the Earth had not
- 55:55got that veneer of water, would plate
- 55:57tectonics still happen? The infinite
- 56:00suggestion, and this was fabulous work by
- 56:02people working with the great Craig o',
- 56:03Neill, a great Australian scientist who does
- 56:06earthquakes and, um, plate tectonics
- 56:08modelling in an astrobiology sense that
- 56:11says the Earth's plate tectonics are
- 56:14really hard to get started. If you run models
- 56:15of the Earth without plate tectonics with the
- 56:17young Earth, with how hot it was, plate
- 56:19tectonics don't just happen. However, if
- 56:22you introduce impacts from big asteroids,
- 56:25like the things you got at the end of planet
- 56:27formation, those can dump enough energy
- 56:29in terms of a downward pulse to push magma
- 56:32up somewhere else to trigger a convection
- 56:35cell that then becomes self sustaining. So
- 56:38it's quite possible that the same impact
- 56:41regime that led to the delivery of water,
- 56:43that led in the extreme case to the formation
- 56:45of the moon, also triggered plate
- 56:48Tectonics. And by triggering plate tectonics
- 56:50and delivering water to the mantle allowed
- 56:53the Earth to become the planet it is today to
- 56:55allow life to thrive. Now there's far, far
- 56:58more that you could look into about the
- 56:59planets themselves. I'm not like, say, a
- 57:01geophysicist, but the interplay of these
- 57:04things is fascinating and it's a real
- 57:05reminder of that multidisciplinary thing. You
- 57:08can't do it all if you're just an astronomy.
- 57:10You need everybody from all different
- 57:13disciplines to come together so we can figure
- 57:15out what factors are and, um, aren't
- 57:17important. So that when we find another
- 57:20thousand, another ten thousand, another
- 57:22hundred thousand planets, we can pick the
- 57:24best targets to search for life upon them.
- 57:26And that was a motivation and it just blew my
- 57:28mind when I got to that final part. Just how
- 57:31much complexity there is in the
- 57:34interplay between the atmosphere, the
- 57:35climate, the plate tectonics, the oceans
- 57:38that are so, uh, variable and so chaotic.
- 57:42What does that mean? How can we learn from
- 57:44that? Well, that's what we learn when we look
- 57:46at planets around other stars. But at least
- 57:47this gives us a bit of a starting point
- 57:49point, I think.
- 57:50Andrew Dunkley: Yeah, yeah, I see what you're saying. So it's
- 57:53like the popular press saying, oh, we found a
- 57:55rocky planet in the Goldilocks zone and it
- 57:57probably has water, so, you know, it's got to
- 57:59have life. Uh, there's so much more than
- 58:02that. Like, yeah, it's um.
- 58:04Jonti Horner: Even they probably have water is a leap
- 58:06because like, yeah, if we'd not had
- 58:09water added after the moon forming impact,
- 58:11the Earth would be a desert
- 58:14Andrew Dunkley: and we wouldn't probably exist at all.
- 58:17Jonti Horner: Absolutely, yeah.
- 58:18Andrew Dunkley: Fascinating stuff, Jonty. We'll leave it
- 58:21there. But, um, it's just such a
- 58:24fascinating topic. But
- 58:26what goes into, uh, the future
- 58:29identification of potential targets is
- 58:32so much more than most people would have
- 58:34considered. So thank you very much, really
- 58:35appreciate it.
- 58:36Jonti Horner: It's an absolute pleasure and thanks for
- 58:37letting me rant on my topics of choice for a
- 58:40change. Like I said, it would be helpful. I'm
- 58:43sure your readers will.
- 58:44Readers, listeners will give feedback on
- 58:46this, but I know we've done something
- 58:48different. I really do. I am aware
- 58:51of the fact that these are not your typical
- 58:52episodes and that may be different for
- 58:55people. So I appreciate the opportunity to do
- 58:56this, but if people have enjoyed it or
- 58:58didn't, it'd probably be worth letting Andrew
- 59:00and Fred Watson know once I'm gone. Um, won't
- 59:03hurt my feelings. Don't worry about it
- 59:04because if it's Something you've enjoyed.
- 59:06There's possibilities to do things like this
- 59:08again in future if it isn't. We tried it and
- 59:10it didn't work and that's entirely fine. Fine
- 59:12too. So hopefully it was fun, hopefully it
- 59:14was educational and I won't be too hurt, uh,
- 59:16if nobody enjoyed it.
- 59:18Andrew Dunkley: I'm pretty sure they did. Jonty, and we
- 59:20really appreciate your time and uh, we've,
- 59:23we've got one more episode to do with you.
- 59:25Uh, it's a Q and A episode and we, we're
- 59:27talking about, we haven't nailed it down yet,
- 59:29but we're talking about doing a, an
- 59:31astrophotography special.
- 59:32Jonti Horner: Yeah.
- 59:33Andrew Dunkley: Because we do get a lot of questions about
- 59:34astrophotography so, uh, that, that'd be
- 59:37worth getting into as well.
- 59:38Jonti Horner: Yeah. I've got a couple of good friends who
- 59:40uh, are award winning astrophotographers who
- 59:42we're going to try and rope into that. So
- 59:44watch this space is what I'd say. Yes.
- 59:46Andrew Dunkley: Fingers crossed we can nail that one down.
- 59:49Jonty, thanks so much. We'll see you real
- 59:50soon.
- 59:51Jonti Horner: Pleasure. Thank you for having me.
- 59:52Andrew Dunkley: Johnty Horner, professor of Astrophysics at
- 59:54the University of Southern Queensland.
- 59:58And if you've got time, jump on our website
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- 1:00:31find out about. And from me, Andrew Dunkley,
- 1:00:33thanks for your company. We'll see you on the
- 1:00:35next episode of Space Nuts. Bye Bye.
- 1:00:38Space Nuts.
- 1:00:39You've been listening to the Space Nuts
- 1:00:40Jonti Horner: Arts podcast, available
- 1:00:43at Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
- 1:00:46iHeartRadio or your favourite podcast
- 1:00:49player. You can also stream on demand at
- 1:00:51bytes. Com.
- 1:00:52Andrew Dunkley: Um, this has been another quality podcast
- 1:00:54production from Bytes. Com.
- 1:00:56Jonti Horner: Um,