Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold's Future: Market Trends and Strategy - Bob Hoye #6168

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Gold's Future: Market Trends and Strategy - Bob Hoye #6168 · Financial Survival Network

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you
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  Speaker 2: Welcome, this is Financial Survival Network. Come your host Carrie
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  Speaker 2: Let's and well gold have you watched gold? Have you
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  Speaker 2: watched silver? Gold over twenty seven hundred dollars announced, Silver
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  Speaker 2: over thirty four dollars announce today before pulling back a
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  Speaker 2: little bit. And by the way, this is October twenty
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  Speaker 2: first of twenty twenty four. Bob hoy is with us now,
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  Speaker 2: the master of economic history who can read the future
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  Speaker 2: by simply looking at the past. Bob, it's great to
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  Speaker 2: have you back on. So what is happening now?
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  Speaker 3: Very good to be with you with our listeners. And
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  Speaker 3: thanks very much for the rave review. I'm going to
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  Speaker 3: try hard to live up to it.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, check the accident.
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  Speaker 3: Silver getting a little overbought in the weekly. But the
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  Speaker 3: rise is not over. It might run into resistance in
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  Speaker 3: the next month or so.
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  Speaker 4: And there is.
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  Speaker 3: Some resistance and it's getting overbought, but not enough to
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  Speaker 3: make a.
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  Speaker 4: Call to change anybody's position.
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  Speaker 3: And it's a good benchmark for the pressure the whole
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  Speaker 3: pressures metal sector, gold and gold and silver stocks as well.
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  Speaker 3: So I'm enjoying the rally and content with the gains
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  Speaker 3: and looking on this move for a little more.
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  Speaker 2: Yet, so how much hardy much higher.
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  Speaker 4: Can it go?
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  Speaker 3: I haven't put it well as I said don silver.
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  Speaker 3: It's that a zone of resistance to thirty five level.
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  Speaker 3: And then they what you know, we look at it
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  Speaker 3: from a historical view, and also to put the history
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  Speaker 3: together carry you have to deep plate the price of gold.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, it's been in the plate of it years
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  Speaker 3: ago by the consumer price. In the show, we call
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  Speaker 3: it the rate of inflation because in England's long history
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  Speaker 3: as a senior economy, there was a long period when
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  Speaker 3: gold was convertible into or the currency was convertible into
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  Speaker 3: a fixed amount of gold, i e. A gold standard.
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  Speaker 3: But within this the real price of gold fluctuates. The
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  Speaker 3: old story about the guinea to buy a man's suit, say,
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  Speaker 3: that's in very all over the place. So what happens
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  Speaker 3: with gold dey plated is that it downticks going into
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  Speaker 3: a great financial bubble. And of course the last big
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  Speaker 3: high for golden silver was in twenty eleven. I mean
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  Speaker 3: that was a blowoff. But then in as the post
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  Speaker 3: bubble contraction comes in, real prices turned up. And it
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  Speaker 3: has and I've got to start going this turning point
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  Speaker 3: on the bubbles nineteen twenty nine, eighteen seventy three, eighteen
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  Speaker 3: twenty five, seventeen seventy two, and all the way back
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  Speaker 3: to seventeen twenty. So it's a consistent pattern and it
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  Speaker 3: leads to overall a twenty year bow market whereby gold
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  Speaker 3: real price goes up. Now, Kerri, well, last year, a
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  Speaker 3: year going June, we found a nice, a more.
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  Speaker 4: Vivid way of looking at it.
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  Speaker 3: I took price the golden divide by the CRB quantity
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  Speaker 3: in the then suggested that the CRB commanditied and it's
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  Speaker 3: just actually a proxy for the clock the mining. The
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  Speaker 3: TRB is going going down relative to the bullion price
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  Speaker 3: that BABA margins are going up, and it has nothing
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  Speaker 3: to do with the dollar. With the DX. Now, all
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  Speaker 3: the gold and silver bugs out there all get excited
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  Speaker 3: and in their mind, the only way the game will
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  Speaker 3: work is the dollars going to crash. Well, here's another
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  Speaker 3: one from history. One of the I got four items
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  Speaker 3: that are key detracting the transition from a great financial
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  Speaker 3: mania to a depression, and one of them is goldst
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  Speaker 3: price going down. The middle is the bubble finished, then
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  Speaker 3: going top.
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  Speaker 4: Got that one.
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  Speaker 3: The other one is that copper goes up with the
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  Speaker 3: bubble and then goes down, and that one was working.
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  Speaker 3: And then the other is real long interest rate like
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  Speaker 3: for the tenures, it goes up. And then, of course
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  Speaker 3: the court item is the US dollar becomes the senior currency,
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  Speaker 3: becomes fun the firm. And I think I can give
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  Speaker 3: an explanation of why this happened. During the financial bubble,
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  Speaker 3: everybody around the world goes to New York, the world's
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  Speaker 3: financial center, and posh money. And then when the bubbles over,
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  Speaker 3: the pleasures are.
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  Speaker 4: That you pay the money back.
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  Speaker 3: So everybody out there is selling something the other guy's
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  Speaker 3: currency is selling copper whatever they produce in order to
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  Speaker 3: get their hands on dollars in order to service obligations.
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  Speaker 4: In New York is the financial capital.
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  Speaker 3: A long time ago, it was the British Sound and
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  Speaker 3: London when London was the financial capital.
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  Speaker 4: So this has been around for a long time.
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  Speaker 3: And so I really like working with the gold divided
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  Speaker 3: by the CRB. And it is up as you would
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  Speaker 3: expect that new highs not over got, but this is
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  Speaker 3: now I think eight months of rising. So on this
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  Speaker 3: thematic all the gold miners their profit margin should be
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  Speaker 3: improved roughly through this business of gold bullion price outperforming
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  Speaker 3: the cost of mining. And this is a very practical
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  Speaker 3: way of looking at it, rather than getting all excited
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  Speaker 3: about the evils of the Fed. And the dollar is
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  Speaker 3: going to go to zero, Well, there's a whole lot
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  Speaker 3: of currency gout.
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  Speaker 4: This and we're going to go to zero before the
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  Speaker 4: US dollar does, and as a.
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  Speaker 3: State, strengthen the senior currency and be described as being
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  Speaker 3: due to the disservicing debt obligations in New York. Take
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  Speaker 3: a look at Argentina. They're always complaining about the strong dollars,
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  Speaker 3: but they awe huge dollars in doing table in the
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  Speaker 3: New York. And then the great Thomas Gresham in fifteen
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  Speaker 3: fifty he was the financial agent for England in the
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  Speaker 3: money market in Antwerp, that was then the commercial and
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  Speaker 3: financial center of the world, and in his letters he
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  Speaker 3: points out to the crown. How difficult it is in
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  Speaker 3: meeting debt obligations the weak currency to the strong senior currency.
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  Speaker 3: So there's lots of letters about that and which I've
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  Speaker 3: enjoyed reading. I've got a book on aggression, and then
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  Speaker 3: there's many sources on aggression. So you know, there's a
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  Speaker 3: pression law, which is bad bad money forces out good money.
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  Speaker 3: He wrote something pretty close to that, but hey, I'll
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  Speaker 3: give him credits for it. He got it, he nailed it.
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  Speaker 3: And the problem is servicing debt from a week to
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  Speaker 3: a strong senior currency.
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  Speaker 4: So this is what the world is going to be.
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  Speaker 3: Facing with over the next couple of decades. So, and
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  Speaker 3: that's the first long time volliged on goals real price.
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  Speaker 3: With the real price going up, uh, my producers, their
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  Speaker 3: profit margins will be enhanced. And then even that then
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  Speaker 3: puts the better valuation on on mineral exploration bets. And
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  Speaker 3: it's it's just the way it works.
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  Speaker 2: So yeah, so rumor of the dollars demise have been
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  Speaker 2: greatly exaggerated.
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  Speaker 3: Huh, yeah, it's not. Let's put it this way. A
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  Speaker 3: posticating a good move for gold based upon a falling
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  Speaker 3: dollar is a speculation in for an exchange fluctuation. But
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  Speaker 3: if you go with the idea that with the commodity
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  Speaker 3: praises being weak, their profit margins are improving and therefore
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  Speaker 3: their cash boats are improving. So then when you're buying
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  Speaker 3: the gold sector based upon a stream of increasing earnings,
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  Speaker 3: that's investing. And I can see it with if the
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  Speaker 3: big stock market gets bad, and I believe it will,
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  Speaker 3: and then you've got ordinary fund managers, equity fund managers,
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  Speaker 3: it wouldn't touch the goals with a ten foot ball.
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  Speaker 4: But if you get a couple of.
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  Speaker 3: Quarters where the GDX is outperforming VS. And P, those
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  Speaker 3: guys looking for performance will have to buy the golds.
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  Speaker 3: So I'm very fullish on gold stocks. We're early early
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  Speaker 3: years in a multi year bull market for the gold.
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  Speaker 3: Thank god you had gold stocks going to the moon.
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  Speaker 3: Don't mind that sort of stuff. Foster, Yeah, Foctor started
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  Speaker 3: at nineteen twenty two. And then if you go back
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  Speaker 3: to previous depressions, there was always the real price went up,
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  Speaker 3: and then eventually there was many unemployed and commercial areas
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  Speaker 3: around the world and the real place designed, so then
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  Speaker 3: you had your great mobile gold rusts at the worst
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  Speaker 3: of depression.
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  Speaker 2: This minute understood, and yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Sospet eighteen forty nine to the California gold Rush, the
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  Speaker 3: flash in bottom of eighteen forty four, eighteen forty five
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  Speaker 3: and then eighty ninety seven gold rush up and the
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  Speaker 3: Klondike was a great president ended at eighteen ninety five.
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  Speaker 2: Right, gotcha? So what more can we look forward to here,
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  Speaker 2: Bob in.
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  Speaker 3: The stock market possible, it's not yet overbot, but when
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  Speaker 3: it finally gets there and rolls over, we'll be going
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  Speaker 3: into a bear market. On the bond side, even treasuries
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  Speaker 3: are vulnerable mainly to a liquidity crisis. So for fixed
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  Speaker 3: income people, we say, take a look at the three
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  Speaker 3: to four year good grade US corporate bonds. You'll get
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  Speaker 3: it because if you go short term right t bills
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  Speaker 3: are various positive things, the field's going to head towards zero.
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  Speaker 3: But if you're in a three year good grade corporate bond,
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  Speaker 3: you're getting a decent yield and the price for whips
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  Speaker 3: are you and it's going to be maturing at par
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  Speaker 3: three years or four years hence, So that's kind of
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  Speaker 3: a nice investment world. I mean, even even equity people
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  Speaker 3: rather than being long equities and vulnerable there, but parking
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  Speaker 3: in three to four year good grade carpet.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, all right, so you have a list of stocks
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  Speaker 2: that you expect to perform, will so how well is
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  Speaker 2: it performed so far this year?
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  Speaker 3: Above our list of gold juniors. Yeah, there's been a
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  Speaker 3: couple of turkeys that have done nothing out of a
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  Speaker 3: list I think it was eleven, but on average they're
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  Speaker 3: uptempre ten is the Christmas and so. But the point
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  Speaker 3: of going at gold juniors when when it.
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  Speaker 4: Really takes off.
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  Speaker 3: These things have the potent for making big moves, and
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  Speaker 3: you can you can buy and leverage up on them,
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  Speaker 3: but that's there. Whereas if you buy a suite of
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  Speaker 3: junior gold, hey, the downside is not much and in
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  Speaker 3: some cases the upside could be rather good if if
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  Speaker 3: somebody may well the sector will do well in a
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  Speaker 3: rising market for general gold shares because at a at
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  Speaker 3: a bear market they get overlooked. Where because when you're
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  Speaker 3: when you come out, you get the gold starts out
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  Speaker 3: performing first, then the middling size once and then finally the.
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  Speaker 4: Juniors get.
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  Speaker 3: And so the percent gains in these things can be
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  Speaker 3: rather good as the bull market continued.
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  Speaker 4: And then you.
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  Speaker 3: Also have the possibility that one of them could come
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  Speaker 3: up with a discovery, in which case you've got a
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  Speaker 3: global phenomenon. Way back when six I made a list
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  Speaker 3: of five doing your goals, and one of them was Irequipa,
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  Speaker 3: and it went to thirty dollars. It was taken over
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  Speaker 3: by somebody for a one point one billion dollar market cap.
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  Speaker 4: So your goal juniors can do very well.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Well, always interesting speaking with you there on him.
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  Speaker 3: People put it far about the list and we'd be glad.
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  Speaker 2: To send it, all right, And actually we're going to
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  Speaker 2: put a link to your list in the show notes
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  Speaker 2: to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. If
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  Speaker 2: you've got a question for Bob or myself, shoot me
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  Speaker 2: an email right away to kl at Carrie LUTs dot com.
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  Speaker 2: We'll get your question answered quickly. And hey, while you're
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  Speaker 2: at the site, please sign up for your free newsletter Bop.
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  Speaker 2: Always amazing talking to you. Be well and stay dry here.
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  Speaker 2: You got like major flooding up north there, so stay
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  Speaker 2: drunk high.
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  Speaker 3: We had some rain, but it's the storms quit now
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  Speaker 3: and great to talk carry look forward at anytime.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, we've been having our share of rain here too
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  Speaker 2: in Florida, so we can totally empathize with you. We'll
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  Speaker 2: talk to you again in a month or two and
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  Speaker 2: see where this mess leads us next.
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  Speaker 1: The thanks for listening to Carrie Lets. This Financial Survival
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