Latest / Toadstool Sports / Tuesday BEST BETS | Am I Being Too Selective? | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/12/26

Transcript

Tuesday BEST BETS | Am I Being Too Selective? | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB & WNBA | 5/12/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:24
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: your chase, black coffee on the felt Man, you look.
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Like a mess.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something on somebody for show. Put
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on nothing, no, hold on, hold
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: on me five but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: hold on.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: Stay with me? Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: with you? Toad Soul Sports Tuesday, May twelve, got another
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: win yesterday on the show. Bring us to a seventy
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: thirty four and five run over the last thirty eight days.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: I think we're on a fourteen to one run over
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: the last five days something like that. The only play
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: that I gave out on the show yesterday was the
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: Colorado Avalanche. They won. I mean you could look at
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: that game multiple ways. I mean, Colorado probably should have
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: had a bigger lead in the game. They they pretty
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: much dominated the game statistically. If you were watching that game,
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: they just I don't know, like the first scoring opportunity
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: in Minnesota had they scored took the lead, you know,
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: kind of fluky, and then Colorado had way more opportunities.
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: Wasn't scoring as much, but they never trailed after they
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: tied it. After that took the lead, was tied again,
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: then they were gonna win three to two basically, but
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: they also scored two empty net goals, so the game
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: really wasn't what it looked like on the final score either,
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: but we got the win with that. I'm only gonna
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: give about one play today. We have a full board
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: today with baseball. All the teams are playing today. In baseball,
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: we have WNBA back in action. But I don't love
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: this board. I thought I was gonna have a hockey
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: playing with the zigzag, but I looked at it and
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I'm like, eh, I don't know, man, maybe I'm being
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: way too sole active here baseball. I mean a day
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: like this, you get teams that are like in situational
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: spots where you want to fade these teams, and then
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: I look at the starting pitching matchup and I'm like,
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: I can't do that. So I have reduced it. I've
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: boiled it down to one play today, and it's gonna
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: be kind of a pussy play as well in baseball.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: But that's all I have, dirty sock. What's they start
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: hanging out. Let's get into it, man, I want to
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: run this sub baseball board down, you know. I mean,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: I feel like I talk too much about the baseball
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: when I get into it. Anaheim at Cleveland they did
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: play yesterday. Cleveland won the game seven to two, I
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: believe is what the final was yesterday, So you could
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: argue maybe it's a bounce back spot here for Anaheim.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: We're still looking at an Anaheim bullpen that sucks. They
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: used three of their relief pitchers yesterday. Cleveland used three
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: as well. Bullpen rankings, Cleveland is thirteenth, although I don't
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: like that their ERA is above four, but most of
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: the teams around them are kind of in that range.
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: Anaheim is a terrible bullpen though, twenty seventh. Clearly Cleveland
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: has a bullpen edge year hitting wise, Anaheim is the
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: better hitting team thirteenth and Cleveland or excuse yeah, Cleveland
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: is twenty second. So I order these by whip and ops.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: I think that's just a better indicator. Tyson, what's up? Yeah? One?
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: A one and oh sweep. Yes, I'm gonna try to
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: do it again today. Man, I'm trying. I'm trying to
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: go one and oh today with this board. Anaheim has
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: Wahlbert Irania pitching. He's been a bit all over the place. Man.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: He's really young, still twenty two. I think this is
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: his first season in the majors. He has a three
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: point two two ERA, which is pretty good. One point
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: one point five to seven whip is not good, though.
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: He's been significantly worse on the road, which is where
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: he is today, six point seventy five road ERA. That's
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: not good. The recent starts this month, he's actually been decent.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: He's only allowed one in run in each of his
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: last two outings, but they were both at home, like
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: all of his better starts of coming home. They were
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: against the Mets and the White Sox, not exactly hard
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: hitting teams, and he did seleven nine to six strike
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio with those two outings, so the walks
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: are concerning. Overall, twenty two to sixteen strike out walk
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: ratio in twenty two and a third innings pitched, nineteen
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: hits allowed. The number of walks, that's his problem. But
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: he might have a little bit of an advantage because
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: Cleveland has not seen him before end they don't hit
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: well anyway. So is he capable of pitching well here,
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah he is. It's just I don't know, man, it's
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: a little bit difficult to figure out what he's gonna do.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: I don't like his bad home road splits as far
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: as the road is concerned. Slay che Coney is pitching
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: for Cleveland though, and he has not been very good.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: Six point one five ERA, one point five to nine whip.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: He is a bit better at home though, four point
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: nine to one at home ra, so the home splits
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: do favor him. He's just not pitching that well in general. Man,
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: He's having a lot of short ish outings. He hasn't
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: made it six innings since early April, and that was
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: the only time he did it. Thirty one to sixteen
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio. That's not impressive at all. Forty
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: nine hits a lot in forty one innings. Eight home
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: runs on top of that, these are bad numbers, dude.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: I know last time out he held Kansas City to
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: tourn runs. That's good, but he did walk three guys
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: in that outing that was on the road and maybe
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: you give him a pass for a bad outing before
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: that because it was at the A's Stadium, which is
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: not a good stadium, but he still got bad at
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: around in that game. His numbers against Anaheim are really bad.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: In thirty at bats, four sixty seven average allowed, fourteen
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: sixty seven ops. It's not a huge stample, but it's
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: enough to kind of indicate he does not do well
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: against them, four to two strike out walk ratio. I'm
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: gonna lean to Anaheim in this game, maybe first, because
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: I really would not want to deal with their bullpen.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: It looks like the money is indicating on Anaheim here,
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: sixty six percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: cash on them. You're getting them as a decent underdog
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: Cleveland about minus one forty for the game. Although I'm
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: guessing you're gonna get Anaheim at a smaller underdog if
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: you take them first five. But that would probably be
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: my preferred way of playing this would be Anaheim first five.
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: But Urania, you know, I mean, his road numbers are
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: what they are, They're not good, So you know an
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: over is worth considering as well, uh, because Urania isn't
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: good on the road. Chacone. Bad matchup hasn't been good
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: this year. Both bullpens are pretty questionable or worse. I
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: wouldn't disagree with an over. It looks like ninety three
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash and seventy ninety three percent of
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: the tickets seventy four percent of the cash on the
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: under makes no sense. I don't know who's coming in
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: and playing an under like the public. You think they're
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: playing an under in this game. There's no way, but
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: I would lean over in that game eight and a half? Yes, Kyle,
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: what's up? Man? But yeah, I think I don't know.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I might prefer first five Anaheim in that game, though.
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: All right. Yankees at Baltimore. Baltimore got the win yesterday
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: three to two. Didn't really expect that to happen, but
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: you know, there were Baltimore was in a decent situation yesterday.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: Just I didn't like the matchup, but they got the
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: job done somehow. Baltimore used three relief pitchers yesterday, the
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Yankees used two. Yankees have the better bullpen of the two,
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: though Yankees are ranked ninth right now, Baltimore is fourteenth,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: so not a huge gap between the two. Yankees have
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: a bigger offensive gap. They're third in offense Baltimore. In
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: nineteenth Will Warren is slated to pitch for the Yankees.
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good, three point four to sixty hours,
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: one point two whip, getting a little bit high, but
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: it's also getting a little bit skewed from his last
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: outing that wasn't very good. He's actually been better on
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: the road this year. Not the case last year though,
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: So I don't know how much weight I want to
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: put into that two point six to one roadie, I ray,
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: it's a very small sample size. Last year he was
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: not as good on the road though, so keep that
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: in mind. But he looks a little bit better this
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: year than he was last year. Not a good sign
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: though that he got knocked around by Texas in his
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: last outing. Texas does not hit well. Maybe you argue
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: it was a fluke because he hadn't allowed more than
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: two urned runs and any other outing. So yeah, there's
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: a chance that he does bounce back and pitch better here.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: His previous start was actually against Baltimore, who he's pitching
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: against today, and he did well in that one at home,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: went six and a third innings, gave up one earned run,
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: nine strikeouts, one walk, three hits all out in that
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: one fifty three to eleven strikeout walk ratio overall, thirty
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: nine hits allout, and forty one and two thirds innings.
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Those are all pretty good numbers. So, yes, he is
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: doing well this season Baltimore, even though they just saw him.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know how much that's gonna help their hitting
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: because they're pretty familiar with them. They have sixty one
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: at bats against him, twenty one to seven strike out
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: walk ratio two thirty average seven oh two o ps.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: So he doesn't have the greatest numbers against them, but
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: his numbers against them are fine. I mean, I would
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: say they're slightly better than average. But Baltimore also has
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: an undecided starting pitcher here. You know, there's just not
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: a whole lot I could do with this given the
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: information that we have, Given the information that we do
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: have here, Yankees are public again, what else is new?
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: Eighty eight percent of the tickets now ninety two actually
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: eighty seven percent of the cash. They're a minus one sixty.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: Whatever favorite, whoever Baltimore is gonna put out there is
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: not gonna be as good as Warren in my opinion,
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, do what you want with the information.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: But also, you know, I could see Warren potentially not
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: doing that well on the road as well. Maybe he
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: is out of form. I mean, this game is almost
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: impossible to handicap. In my opinion, eight and a half
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: is the total. I'm this game is not really one
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: that's even close to being a play for me. I
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: got pretty much nothing on this game. Yankees have lost
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: four in a row, though, Like you gotta think the
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: Yankees are probably gonna win this game, unfortunately. But yeah,
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, you could go Yankees over their team total
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: just to finally get something going on the offensive side
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: of things against undecided. This undecided guy's not good, man.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: Maybe that's the approach here. Just go with the Yankees
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: to score runs, and then you take the mystery of
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: Warren out of the equation. It's basically just Yankees against
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: a bad pitching situation for Baltimore probably, although I don't know, man,
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: I honestly have no idea who's pitching for Baltimore here.
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: I looked at their like rotation. I couldn't really figure
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: out what they were doing. I mean, what you have
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: to do is you look when a team is undecided.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: You go, who pitched five games earlier? Right? So that
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: was I believe they had a bullpen game in that
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: game too, So it's like you can't really figure out
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: what's going on with it. That was this game against
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: Kansas City. Actually Shane Boz pitched that game. No, and
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: I'm confused. I think I looked at a different game.
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Yeah, that's a little bit odd. I
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: don't know, man, I don't think it's Boz because I
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: think he pitched. When did he pitch? He pitched more
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: recently than that. Yeah, he pitched three games ago, so
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: it's definitely not him. I don't know what we're looking
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: at here, man, I think I was looking at the
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: wrong game. Yeah, no, no, no, I'm my apologies. It would
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: be it would be this game. Yeah, I'm all over
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: the place this morning. I apologize it was Kid Povich.
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: That makes way more sense. So it might be Povich
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: again today. But if if it's him, yeah, I mean,
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have the same thought. Yankees over their team
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: total is probably the approach that I would have in
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: that game. But I don't even want that. Josh, what's
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: that picture?
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: Was?
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Ai? Fuck her? The wait? The spread. I would not
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: have done that. Empty net goals are just complete flukes.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: There's no way I would put my money on empty
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: net goals happening. I mean, that's just it's fucking stupid,
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: all right. And two is like insanely unlikely. You know,
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: one is at least somewhat likely, but I still would
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: not do that. I mean, you're basically asking for a
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: fluke to happen in the last minute of the game.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: There's no way I'm gonna have my money on that.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: Colorado at Pittsburgh. These teams did not play yesterday, so
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: finally we get some teams that didn't play yesterday. Pittsburgh
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: is returning on from a road trip that took him
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: at Arizona and San Francisco, So you know, you know
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: what my thought is when a team is returning on
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: from a road trip, especially across multiple time zones, I
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: want to look to go against them. I think it's
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: a bad situation. They have to readjust to the time zone,
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: you have to get back to family life. It's not
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: a good situation. Usually you get distracted. I mean, you're
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: really gonna pay attention to the Rockies. Probably not. But
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: then I look at the starting pitching matchup here, and
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: I'm like, well, Paul Skeens is pitching, So I don't
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: think I'm gonna, you know, actually want to play Colorado here.
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Probably not, but you know that Pittsburgh is gonna be
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: a massive favorite here though uh so, neither team used
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: any of the relief pitchers yesterday. Now, when teams were
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: off the day prior. I usually lean unders generally, just
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: because I think the hitting cools off a little bit
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: and you get rested bullpens. This is not one of
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: those games where I'd really want to do that, though,
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: even though yes, I know it is skiing's on the mound.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, I guess an under is worth a consideration
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: in this game. Not gonna be something I'm gonna give
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: out as a play or anything. Though these teams are
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: eighteenth and nineteenth and bullpen. Pittsburgh's is actually ranked lower
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: in WHIP, but their era is better than Colorado's. I
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: think Pittsburgh is probably the better are the two bullpens,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: not by a whole lot, though Colorado ranked ninth offensively
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh sixth. Though, so these teams have actually been hitting,
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: although Colorado doesn't hit as well on the road Michael
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Lorenz In his pitching for Colorado, he has not been good.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: Six point nine two ERA one point nine whips. You
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: can see why we can't play Colorado here. But he's
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: been better on the road. He sucks in course field,
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: but you take him away from course field, he's at
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: least more of a normal pitch or four point four
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: to three Roadie Ray. He got knocked around in course
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: field in his last outing against the Mets. They suck,
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: they can't hit right now, but you know, maybe you
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: give him a pass because it was course field. He's
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: had two really bad outings in course field, and all
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: the other outings he's had four or fewer earned runs allowed,
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: twenty six to twelve strike a walk ratio not very impressive,
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: thirty nine innings pitch. I mean again, he doesn't strike
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: out a lot of guys. The real problem is sixty
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: two hits. That is really really bad. He's been way
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: too hit a ball. But interestingly, he actually does not
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: pitch that badly against Pittsburgh UH fifty seven at bats,
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: twenty strikeouts, seven walks, one ninety three average allowed seven
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: h two ops is a little bit high. He has
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: allowed three home runs to them, so they have made
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: some strong contact against him, but they still don't have
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: that many hits against him. So Lorenzo might actually be
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: able to pitch okay here, he is gonna have to
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: go against Paul Skeens, though Skeins, I mean, we know
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: exactly what he is. Two point three six ERA, point
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: seven to one whip. He's a little bit better at
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: home as well. Two point one pin one ERA at home.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: Had an eight inning shot out last time out against Arizona.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: He's allowed no runs in three of his last four
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: outings athough one of them was rained shortened against Tampa Bay.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: Forty six to seven strike out walk ratio, only twenty
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: three hits allowed in forty two innings. We know he's
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: one of the best pitchers in baseball against Colorado. I
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: believe he has good numbers as well, because why wouldn't
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: he thirty eight at bats. I mean, these aren't dominant numbers,
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: but they're pretty good. Twelve to two strike out walk
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: ratio is crazy, two thirty seven average allowed six to
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: ninety six ops. So yeah, because Lorenzen is better on
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: the road and has decent matchup numbers, the under is
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: in consideration in this game. I mean it's a low
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: total seven and a half because it is a Skeens game.
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: Usually you're not getting any value trying to play the
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: under in a Skeens game. The value might be with
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: playing Colorado still though, I mean, it's a bad spot
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: for Pittsburgh. The number is insane at minus three point
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: thirty something, minus three forty. I mean, this is a
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: ridiculous number. Eighty five percent of tickets, ninety three percent
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Pittsburgh. You could probably grab Colorado
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: on a run line here because the total is so low,
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: it's expected to be a low scoring game. Maybe Colorado
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: can actually at least come within that run line and
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: keep it close. I don't want to do it, but
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: the situational setup is better for the Rockies, and the
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: Rockies they're in the middle of a road trip. They're
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: actually already in the state of Pennsylvania, so the travel
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: spot is actually significantly better for Colorado coming in from Philadelphia.
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: And they did just get shut out in their last
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: game against Philadelphia too, so it is kind of a
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: bounce back spot for Colorado here, but they have to
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: go against schemes, so it is what it is. But yeah,
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: I think the price is probably too high. I mean,
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: even with the best pitcher in baseball, I would even
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: say that, even if it was like Schemes pitching for
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers, I would still think this line is just
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: too high. I don't know, man, I mean we're talking
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: about baseball. I mean that line is just crazy. But yeah,
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Colorado plus one and a half runs. Maybe it might
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: be plus two and a half. I don't know. Whatever
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: you can find out there. Maybe that's an approach in
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: that game. Probably that would be my best opinion, though
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: in that game, I don't want to actually do it.
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: Implants are just as bad as Ai. Man, They're completely fake.
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: I'm not dealing with any of that. That woman is
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: also completely evil. I'm done with all that shit. I'm
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: done with it. I'm done with the op that is
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: Nick fuent As. I'm done with all of it. Fuck him,
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: Fuck Amy Act. And I don't like Vivaik at all either.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: You cannot vote for either of those people. You cannot
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: support either of those people. That's it. I'm done with it.
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: Washington at Cincinnati. Cincinnati just won two games in a
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: row against Houston. They're staying at home. Neither of these
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: teams played yesterday, so we have rested bullpens. But these
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: are also bad bullpens. Washington is traveling in from Miami.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: They just lost two games against Miami. You know, the
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: spot isn't necessarily that good or bad for either team.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: I would say, you know, Cincinnati maybe a little bit
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: more of a letdown spot, but beating Houston's not that
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: big of a deal. Washington coming off some divisional games,
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: love they did lose them, could go either way, could
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: be bounced back for them, could be Why am I
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: looking at that? We know the bullpens did not pitch yesterday.
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: We should save me some time and analyzing this shit.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: Washington's twenty third in bullpen. That's not good. Cincinnati is
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: twenty eighth, although their ERA is a little bit better,
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: but these are not bullpens that can be trusted. Washington's
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: hit pretty well this year. They're at eighth. Cincinnati has not.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: They are twenty third. This is a hitter friendly ballpark, though,
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: and the pitching matchup looks pretty conducive to runs to
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: me here. Miles Micholis is pitching for the Nats. He
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: has not been good. Seven point four to four ERA,
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: one point five to three whip. Probably about time for
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: this guy to, you know, pack it in. He's already.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, he can go back to his home state
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: of Florida and just retire and live nicely. He's been
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: a little bit better on the road, to believe it
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: or not, six points seventy five road era. Washington has
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: had a horrible pitching at home. Micholas actually was serviceable
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: enough in his last outing against Minnesota. They put up
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: a ton of runs behind him and they won the game.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: We had an over in that game, and it did hit,
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: mostly because Washington's offense totally exploded. I mean Micholas, he
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: hasn't given up that many runs, but he's also failed
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: to go five innings in all but two of his outings,
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: including that Minnesota one, So that's not good. He's not
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: going deep into games, not striking guys out twenty two
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: strike cuts, eleven walks, nine home runs allowed is really bad.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: But four of them came in one outing against the Dodgers.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I believe he might have had one. I think Micholas
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: gave up like six in one outing last year against
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: the Cubs. If I'm not mistaken, maybe I'm wrong about that.
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: I seem to remember something like that happening. Thirty nine
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: hits a lot in thirty two and two thirds innings. Yeah,
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: he's been too hit able. His strike his walk rate
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: is too high, his strake got rate is low. He
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: allows a lot of home runs. There's nothing to really
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: like here. Numbers against Cincinnati also bad. Plus they're really
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: familiar with him because he was on Saint Louis for
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: a while one hundred and twenty three at bats against them,
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: eighteen to four strike a walk ratio is good, three
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: forty one batting average allowed nine to fifty three oh
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: ps not good. Yeah, Micholas definitely could get blown up
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: in this game, for sure. Brady Singer is pitching for
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: the Reds. He is not having a good season either.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: Five point six three ERA, one point six to four whip. However,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: he has actually been good at home. I don't know
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: why that's the case, but it was also the case
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: last year. It's a hitter friendly ballpark, but for whatever reason,
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: he pitches better at home three point five to two
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: home ERA. He is also originally from Florida, by the way,
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: the two Florida men are battling in this game here.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean Singer. My instinct was to fade
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: both pitchers here. I do lean over in this game,
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: but I worry about a couple of things rested bullpens.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: Although you know, the bullpens are so bad you could
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: probably still fade them. But Singer is good at home,
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: so that gives me some pause here. Still hasn't really
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: been that good recently, but both those games are on
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: the road. He did go six innings last time out
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: against the Cubs, had six strikeouts, one walk, gave up
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: four and runs, but that really was not that bad
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: of an outing. His strikeout rate is low, though twenty
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: six strikeouts thirty eight and a third innings, ten walks,
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: fifty three hits allowed is way too many, so his
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: numbers actually are pretty similar to Mikolas's numbers here. Not good.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Singer against Washington is actually not too bad. Thirteen at bats.
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: They haven't really faced him that much three to two
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio, two thirty one average allowed, seven
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: to ninety five OPS. Singer was in the American League
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: with the Royals for a while, so the National League
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: offenses aren't as familiar with them. In a lot of
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: these cases, that OPS is still a bit high. Though
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna still lean over. You know, this one is
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: probably one of the better ones for me. The money
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: is a agreeing with that. The totals sitting at ten
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: though I mean, obviously the odds makers are putting it
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: at ten for a reason. It's a really, really high total.
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: But it is again that high because the odds makers
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: know it's a hitter friendly ballpark. We're looking at bad
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: pitching pretty much throughout this game. I agree with the over.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: That's how I would play this. Sixty seven percent of
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: tickets on the under, sixty two percent of the cash
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: on the over. The money is disagreeing with Cincinnati eighty
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: one percent of tickets, seventy three percent of the cash
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: on them. They're at minus one forty something at most books.
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: I think I lean to Cincinnati slightly, though, I mean,
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: Singer is better at home. I think he's better than Meklis,
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: you know, which isn't saying much. But Cincinnati probably is
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: the better of the two bullpens still as well. So
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: those are my thoughts on it. But I think it
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: over makes the most sense in that game. That one
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: is closer to being a play for me. I'll I'll
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: give you that over in that game would be the
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: way I would play it. Philadelph at Boston the Red Sox.
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: Neither of these teams played yesterday either, which again it
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: could cool off the offenses a little bit and whatever.
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: Maybe again, maybe I'm being too selective, because it's almost
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: like when everything doesn't line up for me, I'm just
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: not doing it. But I don't know. The Red Sox
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: just lost at home to Tampa Bay. Red Sox offense
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: is still not doing anything. Their bullpen is the better
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: bullpen here, so at least there's that seventh Red Sox
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: and bullpen Philadelphia fifteenth. Their bullpen has been pitching a
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: little bit better recently. They're not horrible hitting wise, neither
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: team has actually really been very good. Red Sox twenty seventh,
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: Philly is up to eighteenth, and I told you they
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: would turn it around. I still think the Red Sox
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: have a better offense than what they've shown so far.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: This pitching matchup, though, Zach Wheeler's pitching for Philadelphia, so
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: I'm not really expecting the Red Sox to put up
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: a lot of offense in this one. Wheeler is back.
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: He's made three starts since coming back from injury. He
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: looks pretty much like himself. As far as I can tell,
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: he's been good three point one two ERA, point nine
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: to eight whip. He's been better on the road as
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: well two point four to five ERA, but very small
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: samples so far. He's made three starts so far he's
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: gone a little bit deeper into each one. He's allowed
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: three or fewer earned runs, and all three of them
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: he's been good. Eighteen strikeouts, six walks, eleven hits a
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: lot in seventeen to third innings. All those numbers are
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: pretty good against the Red Sox. He also has pretty
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: good numbers in his history. Sixty three at bats, seventeen strikeouts,
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: two walks, really good ratio there, two thirty eight batting
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: average allowed six to seventy four ops. Even Contreras, who
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: was in the National League for a while has a
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: lot of at bats against him, has not done well
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: against him, even though he does have a home run
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: against him. I think Contreras might actually be hurt right
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: now too. Although he still listed as active for the
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: Red Sox. The Red Sox have undecided as their starting pitcher,
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: but that's because it's Brian Beao who is scheduled to
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: start we need Garrett Crochet to come back, man, and
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: just bounce Bao out of the rotation. Although Bao, I mean,
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: BeO is likely gonna pitch in this game. He might
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: come in after an opener though, So if you're gonna
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: handicap this game, like Bao is going to pitch basically
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: a starter's workload here, you can go action on this
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: because it's just not definitive he's gonna start this game.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: But I'm pretty sure he is going to pitch like
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: at least four or five innings in this game, depending
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: on how he does. His numbers have been awful though,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: seven point four to four ERA, one point nine to
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: three WHIP. He's been really bad at home as well,
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: eight point five to nine home ERA. But his last
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: outing was like the first one where they put an
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: opener in front of him and he went seven innings.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: He gave up one ear and run at Detroit, and
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: Detroit is a decent offense. So I don't know, man,
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: I think it's a mental thing with him. Maybe putting
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: an opener in front of him takes the pressure off
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: him comes in there, you know. I think he came
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: into that game with the Red Sox already having a
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: lead though, although I think it was three to two
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: at the time. I don't know. But he did pitch well.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: You give him one and run, seven strikeouts, one walk.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: That was easily his best outing of the season. But
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: overall his numbers blow twenty four to sixteen strike out
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, eight home runs, a lout of forty seven
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: hits a loud in thirty two and two thirds innings. Yeah,
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: I just don't trust it, man, bo. This is assuming
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: he is pitching in this game, which I think is
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: probably a valid assumption. Garcia is the only hitter that
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: Philly has who's faced him because he was on Texas
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: so he was in the al Garcia's only won for
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: eleven off bao though, but his one hit is a
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: home run, two walks for strikeouts. I don't know, man. Yeah,
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: I'm not talking politics on this show. This is not
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: a political show. I'm not gonna do it anyway. Yeah,
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: I mean this game, Yeah, I would probably lean to
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia here, but you know, I don't have a good
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: read on it. The money is all coming in on
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox, which seems kind of insane. Maybe because
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: of the price. Philadelphia is minus one forty you pretty
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: much know you're gonna get. You're gonna pay a little
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: bit of a premium with Wheeler on the mound. But
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia hasn't been playing that well, so I think this
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: line is not really that high. Uh, sixty six percent
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: of tickets on Philly, seventy percent of the cash on
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox. Whatever. I hope the Red Sox win,
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: but it is what it is. Uh. You know, I
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: don't like the pitching matchup here. I would lean to
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia maybe first five, because the Red Sox bullpen is
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: the better one, but they're not really that much better either,
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. Philadelphia first five, you probably have
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: to pay a little bit more. You could go minus
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: a half run Philly first five innings. Tampa Bay at Toronto.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: These teams did play yesterday. Tampa Bay won the game
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: eight to five, so Rasmussen again got the better of
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Gaussman in that game. I did tell you that Rasmussen
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: had the better matchup numbers, so I didn't really love
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: it as much with him being the road pitcher. But
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay still got the win and they put up
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: some runs in that one. Tampa Bay three relief pitchers
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: used yesterday. Toronto used four the bullpens, Tampa Bay has
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: been pitching a lot better out of the bullpen recently.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: Their tenth in bullpen Toronto is twelfth, which isn't too bad.
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: But yes, I think Tampa is the better of the two. Offensively,
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: Tampa has been better as well, a little bit seventeenth
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: Toronto twenty first. Shane McClanahan is pitching for Tampa, and
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: just on the surface, Tampa Bay like it looks pretty
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: clear that Tampa has a starting pitching edge in this
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: game with McClanahan against Corbyn, So that would mean that
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: Tampa has the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, the
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: better offense. But it is a bounce back spot for Toronto,
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: and you look at the matchup numbers and I'm not
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: quite so sure that I love it. McClanahan has the
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: two point six ERA and seven WHIP. He's been good.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: He's bouncing back pretty well from injury. He's coming back
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: from I think at least one entire season, missed two.
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: Actually he missed two entire seasons. He was really good
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: before his injury and he started to pitch similarly to
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: that again. But he's on the road here, and he's
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: been really bad on the road so far five point
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: one four road era. That worries me. He did just
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: pitch pretty well against Toronto in his last outing, but
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: that does mean Toronto did just see him, And I
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: don't know how much they have seen of him. I
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: mean I do, but I forget because I look at
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: these numbers right before I do the show. He went
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: five to two thirds innings in that one and shut
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: Toronto out, but he didn't really go that deep into
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: the game. Tampa Bay, I mean, they really like they
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: try to not overwork their pitchers, so they keep their
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: pitchers pretty much on a pitch count, especially with the
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: guy coming back from injury, which kind of makes sense.
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: But his overall numbers are pretty good. Thirty four strikeouts,
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: fourteen walks isn't that great, but twenty three hits allowed,
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: thirty four to two thirds innings, only one home run allowed.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: Those numbers are all pretty good for the most part.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Toronto, they have actually seen a lot
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: of them. So I don't think that the fact that
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: Toronto did you know that Toronto did just see him,
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's gonna help them that much because
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: they do have eighty two at bats against him, nineteen
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: strike out, six walks. His numbers are not horrible against them,
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: but they're not great either. Two fifty six average allowed,
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: seven to twenty one ops allowed. They're you know, decent,
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: but not terrific. So I don't know, man, I mean,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: you would want to see McClanahan be a little bit
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: more dominant, I think if you want to back him here.
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: But Patrick Corbin, you know, I don't think he's good.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: But his numbers this year haven't been that bad. He
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Toronto here three point six ERA, one
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: point two to seven whip. He's been really bad at
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: home six point two three ERA. So both these pitchers
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: are on the bad end of their home road splits
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: this season, but it is a very small sample size.
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: Corbin has been okay this month. He's allowed to earn
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: runs and five and a third innings and each of
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: his starts this month, you know, decent enough that he's
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: holding his team in the game. Still, five strikeouts, three
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: walks is not very impressive. He's got a twenty one
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: to nine strikeout walk ratio overall this season, not a
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate. The number of walks isn't terrific really,
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: but it's not. It could be worse. Twenty nine hits
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: allowed in thirty innings. Yeah, I mean he's not a
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: strikeout pitcher really overall. His numbers aren't that bad though,
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: and he has not been great against Tampa, but not
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: horrible either, which it makes it difficult. Man. You have
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: two starting pitchers that are, you know, not on one extreme,
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: like I like to see a picture that's on the extreme.
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: Either they dominate this team or they do horrible against them.
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: He's got sixty five at bats against Tampa, six to
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: six strikeout walk ratio two ninety two. Batting average is
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: not very good, but a seven thirty ohps allowed is
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: not horrible. Most of the hits have been singles so
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: and he hasn't allowed any home runs to them, so
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: even though those are kind of fluky. I don't know, man,
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is a game. Yeah, I just don't
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: want to do anything with it. The money is coming
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: in on Toronto. I I wouldn't want to do it.
• 34:16
  Speaker 3: I would not sixty four percent of the tickets on Tampa.
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: I sound like the room right now, Tommy Wise, whatever
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: the hell's name is, I am not I would not
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: sixty four percent of tickets on Tampa seventy three percent
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Toronto. Tampa Bay is favored around
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: minus one twenty something. Here. I think I still lean
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: to Tampa Bay. I think the matchup is in support
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: of them throughout the game pretty much, but it's not
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: a big enough advantage that I want to lay them
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: as a road favorite there. And you know it is
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: bounce back for Toronto, a bounce back spot potentially. Plus
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: the money is indicating on Toronto, which you know I
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: don't read into that too much. Sometimes I will fade it,
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: but you know I don't want to deal with it. Yes,
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: Oheim Mark, I could use that as a drop for
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I'm talking about somebody named Mark.
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: I don't know. There aren't that many Marks out there
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: that I seem to talk about on the show, though,
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I can't even think of one that
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: I would talk about offhand here. There have got to
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: be some out there, though. There's got to be some
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: pitcher named Mark Detroit. There's Mark Lighter, but he's a
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: relief pitcher somewhere. Is he on the Yankees? Still? I
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: don't know. No, I think he's somewhere else. I don't
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: even know Detroit at the Mets. Now, I look at
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: this and I'm like, okay, yeah, here we go. The
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: Mets are returning home from a three series road trip
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: where they went to Anaheim, Colorado, into elevation. There they
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: went to Arizona. Now they're back home. And yes, both
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: teams had a day off, they didn't play yesterday, but
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: long road trip return, you know, I talk about it
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: all the time. Also, a Mets team that's not playing well,
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: I would my initial reaction is I want to fade
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: that team because they're returning home. They have to get
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: back to home life. They've been away for a long time.
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: It's a bad spot. Okay, So that makes me want
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: to fade the Mets here. But then I look at
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: the starting pitching. I'm like, I can't do it, man,
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: I can't put my money on the clearly worse of
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: the two starting pitchers. I just can't do it. So
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to Both bullpens are rested, at least
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: here the Mets. I mean, they haven't been that bad
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: in the bullpen department. That's been one of the things
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: that they haven't been that bad at their eleventh in bullpen.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: Detroit hasn't been too bad at twentieth other eras below four,
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: so not horrible. Also, both teams have their choice of
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: any relievers they want to use. Today, Mets are still
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: dead last in offense and thirtieth. Things have not been
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: turning around. Detroit significantly better on offense, they're tenth right now,
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: but they're better at home usually than on the road.
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: And I cannot put my money on Jack Flaherty. He
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: can't do it. He's been bad five point five six ERA,
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: one point five to six whip. He's been a little
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: bit better on the road five point two eight ERA,
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: but still pretty bad. He did strike out ten guys
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: in his last outing, which was against the Red Sox,
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: but Red Sox can't hit Man, and somehow Detroit lost
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: that game. They had no run support behind him. But
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: that looked like more of an outlier to me. I mean,
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: if you look at the rest of his numbers, not
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: very good, even though he does now have forty two
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: strikeouts and thirty four innings, which is pretty good, but
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: he has twenty six walks. Man thirty hits a lot
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: isn't even that bad, but the walk number is outrageously high.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: And yes, he only walked one guy against the Red Sox.
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: That was the only start he's made all season where
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: he's walked fewer than two uh and he's walked three
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: or more in all but two outings. So you know,
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: I don't know how much weight to put into that.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox not a good offense. He was bad
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: against the Red Sox in his other outing. Is he
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: star trying to pitch better? Maybe, but I I can't really,
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: you know, I can't bank on that being the case.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: He's been so bad this year there's no way I
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: could do it against the Mets. His numbers are not great,
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: They're not horrible. Fifty nine at bats, fifteen to eleven
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: strike out walk ratio two, fifty four batting average allowed,
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: seven to forty four oh ps. Those are not horrible numbers.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: But I think Flaherty is pretty unbackable man, and he
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: is going up against Freddy Peralta, who is clearly the
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: better of the two pitchers. Yere pitching for the Mets
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: three point one two ERA for him, one point two WHIP.
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit worse at home though, three
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: point six to two home ERA, which is still a
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: lot better than Flaherty's Roady Ray though Peralta, I mean
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: he's been walking too many guys. That has been his issue.
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: His walk numbers is usually a little bit too high,
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: but nothing crazy. More worries some Perhaps he only had
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: one strikeout in his last downing against Colorado, so he
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: wasn't fooling guys had more walks that strikeouts, two walks,
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: but he shut them out for five innings. It was
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: in course field, so I don't know. Maybe you give
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: him a pass for that. Generally, he's been good. He's
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing except one,
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: which was the first one against Pittsburgh, and they've been
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: a decent offense this year. Forty three to eighteen strike
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio. Again, the walks are too high, but
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: the rest of his numbers are pretty good. Thirty four
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: hits allowed, forty three and a third innings pitched Peralta
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: against who were even talking? I don't know, Oh yeah, Detroit, Dude,
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: I always forget which team I'm even talking about here. ESPN.
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: It pisses me off, dude, Just update your shit and
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: switch this selection here. He's got twenty seven at bats
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: against Detroit, he's been good. I mean, this is not
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: something that I want to fade. Seven to three strike
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio is not good, but a one forty
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: eight average allowed four nineteen ops allowed, I'm not fading that.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: So you know, the spot is really really bad for
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: the Mets though, Like, if you forced me to give
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: you a pick on this g I would say Detroit.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: But I can't do it. Man. The Mets have the
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: better bullpen too, plus the better starting pitcher, and he
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: has good matchup numbers year. So yeah, I can't do it.
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: I'll slightly lean that way because I think the situation
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: in this case might win out, but yeah, I'm not
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: doing it. Minus one forty something is the price on
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: the Mets, And yeah, I mean you could definitely make
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: the argument the Mets shouldn't be favored by that much
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: because they've been so bad this year, Like what, you know,
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: for what reason would they be favored this significantly? You know?
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: Even though yes, I know Peralta is significantly better than Flaherty,
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: So yes, the Mets do deserve to be favored here,
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: but minus one forty minus one fifty range seems a
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: little crazy, which I think is also probably why some
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: of the money's coming out of Detroit. So you do
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: get a decent underdog price there. You could even split
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: it and do a split plus one and a half
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: run line and the rest on the money line, or
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: just go straight up money line. I still don't want
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: to do it. I'm not backing flaherty, but you know,
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: Mark McGuire, Yeah, this the better era, man, the steroid era. Michael,
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: it's up. Thanks for hanging out. I have to go
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: get my mail man. It's a thank you for sending
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: me that. I'm assuming it's here, but I have not
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: gotten my mail yet. Getting the mail is a chore, man.
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: I might do it today because I have to bring
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: a bunch of shit out. I have a lot of
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: boxes and stuff that I have to bring out to
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: the trash. But I've been getting too much stuff shipped in.
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: But my wrist. I hurt my wrist bringing all this
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: stuff in yesterday, so I have not been able to
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: remove the boxes yet. My wrist is all fucked up.
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: And this is the one that I had the radius
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: and on the both snap when a kid named Carmine
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: dropped me back when I was thirty eight pounds. I
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: told you guys that back in whatever it was second
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: grade or whatever. Yeah, the year before I broke this
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: other arm and an escalator. Yeah, but this break was
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: worse and it didn't heal right, So I rotate my wrists.
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: I still fill the bones clicking, and now the wrist
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: is injured again. So I don't know what I'm gonna do. Man.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: I could go get my mail, though, but you know,
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: getting the mail, it's you know, my mailbox is it's
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: kind of out and like around the corner. So I
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: don't know. I've not gone out to do it, all right,
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: Cubs at Atlanta, this is a good series, man, This
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: is probably the best series that's going on right now.
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: We have two of the top teams in baseball here,
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: a National League powerhouse battle here. There is a situational
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: angle to this. Atlanta's returning on from a road trip.
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: So you know, I talk about that they went to Colorado, Seattle,
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: and LA to the Dodgers. So Atlanta's returning on for
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: me three series road trips. They've been away for a
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: long time. They're returning home. They got to get back
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: to a home life. They could be in a letdown
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: spot because they just beat the Dodgers twice, seven to two,
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: winning that week series after losing the first game. Huge
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: wins against the Dodgers, man, so it could be a letdown.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: Plus it's a distraction spot returning home from the road,
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: so I would not want to be on Atlanta here.
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: But they're playing the Cubs, so maybe that alleviates the
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: distraction a little bit. Still, I think it's a really
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: bad spot for Atlanta though, And the Cubs are in
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: the middle of a road trip and they just got
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: shut out twice to finish their series against Texas. These
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: bullpens did not pitch yesterday. Neither team played yesterday. Also
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: the case with Detroit and the Mets. By the way,
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I clarified that, but yes, these bullpens,
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: the teams didn't play yesterday, and none of those teams did.
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: Cubs look like they got to be in a bounced
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: back spot after. I mean, they have a good offense
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: and they scored zero runs over the last two games combined.
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: But remember Texas, they have good pitching and it's a very,
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: very underconducive ballpark in Texas. So that's part of the
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: reason why this game is on TBS, because it is
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: a huge game. Now, does that mean that I'm gonna
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: give out a play on Chicago. I'm not going to,
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: but I will lean that way. But the starting pitching matchup,
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: I just don't think it's quite good enough for it,
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: although I don't think it's really a huge advantage one
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: way or the other. Like I think the Mets have
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: like a pretty clear edge of the starting pitching here.
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: So that's why I'm not gonna fade the Mets. But
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry, I'm like lightheaded here right now. Don't know
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: what's going on. The Cubs are eighth in bullpen whip.
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: That's not bad. Atlanta is first, though Atlanta's had one
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: of the best bullpens in baseball, so I'll give them
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: a slight edge there. But these bullpens are pretty comparable,
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: and they're both rested. They're both really good offensive teams
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: as well. Atlanta's number one right now and the Cubs
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: are number four. So these teams, yeah, they're both pretty
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: much powerhouses. They could both match up pretty well. Colin
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: Ray is pitching for the Cubs, though, you know, I mean,
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: he's not necessarily someone I really want to have money
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: on in most cases, although I know This would be
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: a situational play if you do it with the Cubs,
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: and I do still agree with the Cubs. In this game.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Ray has a four point zero three ERA one point
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: three to seven whip is not really that good, putting
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: too many guys on base. He's been bad on the road,
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: so that is one problem I have with wanting to
• 45:19
  Speaker 3: back him here, as you're going against a pretty significant
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: home road split here. His ROADRAS three runs higher than
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: his home ERA five point six. That's not good overall.
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's got our right numbers overall. Thirty five strikeouts,
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: twelve walks, that's not too bad, thirty eight at bats,
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: forty hits a lout isn't great, but he's been pretty
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: much fine overall. He's lot three or few earned runs
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: and all but one outing. But that was a road
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: outing against the Dodgers, so you can make the argument
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: that was the most comparable outing to this one, because
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: this is also a road outing against a really good
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: team with a good offense, with one of the top offenses.
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: Ray against the Braves in the past does not have
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: good numbers. So again, these numbers are bad enough that
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: it takes this off the table from me. He's got
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: forty nine at bats against them, a two eighty six average,
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: a lot in nine forty four ohps, really really high.
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: So the Braves have definitely rocked him. Twelve strikeouts, five walks.
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: But yes, even though the situation is good, this is
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: not something that I can put my money on. So
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: it's unfortunate, but that is the case. Grant Holmes is
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: pitching for the Braves. You know he is fatable to me.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: But again, you just saw the numbers with Ray there,
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: so I just can't do it. Man Holmes as a
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: four point three four ERA one point three to one
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: whip pitching for Atlanta this year. Last year he was
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: better at home, but this year he's been worse at home.
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what to think about homes. His
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: home road splits seem to have flipped this year. At
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: least so far, He's been bad at home five point
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: four ERA. So both pitchers are in the bad of
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: their home road splits. He just pitched in Colorado, didn't
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: really do that well there. Maybe you give him a
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: pass because it is course field. Overall, he's been better
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: than that. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs and
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: all the rest of his outings, but not going too
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: deep into a lot of these outings. He faced a
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: decent number of fairly weak offenses in here, so you
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: know the Cubs are gonna be the best offense that
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: he's faced so far, so he might struggle here. He's
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: got twenty nine strikeouts seventeen walks on the season. That's
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: not a good ratio. His strikeout rate is pretty low
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: as well. I think last year it was a lot
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: higher than that. He's pitched thirty seven in the third innings,
• 47:35
  Speaker 3: thirty two hits allowed. He's also allowed six home runs,
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: which isn't great. That the hits are not bad, but
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: the amount of home runs is not good. The amount
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: of walks is really bad. So yeah, I don't know Holmes.
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: He is fatable, like I said, but I can't really
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: back ray either. Holmes doesn't have a whole lot of
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: history against the Cubs. They only have seven at bats
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: against him. Only Bregman and Confort to have ever faced
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: him before. Can Ford has dominated him, though he is
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: three for five with a double off i Man three walks. Overall,
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: they have a combined four walks two strike guts against
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: him and are three for seven with that double, But
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: there's not a whole lot that you can really read
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: into it those numbers because it's such a small sample.
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: We just know that he doesn't do well against Conforto. Yeah,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: I mean it's a game. I'm gonna pass on the game,
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: but I'm gonna lean to the Cubs here. Ray just
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: has really, really bad matchup numbers. Though the money seems
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: to be kind of indicating on Atlanta. Obviously, based on
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: the situation, I would not agree with that, and I
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: don't think Holmes is very backable in this game either.
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: Seventy eight percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: cash on Atlanta, they're around minus one fifteen or so. Here.
• 48:45
  Speaker 3: I would lean to the Cubs, though as the underdog,
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: I think it's a much better situation, at least for them.
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: Money seems to be indicating on the over, and I
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: kind of agree seventy eight percent of tickets, sixty one
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the under. But you just
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: saw it looks like these guys don't have a good
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: matchup here. It looks like both starting pitchers they're on
• 49:03
  Speaker 3: the wrong end of their home roads splits, and they
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: don't have particularly good matchups. But the bullpens could hurt
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: us there if they come out of pitch well, you know,
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: I mean, I never really go over in the first
• 49:15
  Speaker 3: five innings because I'm of the opinion that if the
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: starting pitching starts out badly, that the worst relievers start
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: coming into the game and it just doesn't really matter,
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: like the bullpens just can't save it. But I don't know, man, Yeah,
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: and then these offenses could definitely hit, but they both
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: were off yesterday, so the offenses could be a little
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: bit cold. We know the Cubs offense has been struggling recently.
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, another way to play this is to go
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: over the Cubs team total. You could do that, like
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: that would be a way to get your money on
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: the Cubs without having to play them to win the game.
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: You could go Cubs over their team total to at
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: least score some runs here. But then again, again, I
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: don't really love offenses coming off a layoff because I
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: think they could be a little bit cold to start
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: the game. But it is possible the Cubs are able
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: to score against homes, But then again, they do have
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: to go up against the Atlanta bullpen as well, So
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I just don't really see an approach
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: that I love there, but still probably my preferred approach
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: in that game is still probably to play the Cubs
• 50:14
  Speaker 3: money line though, and just you know, make it simple,
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: all right. The next game is Kansas City at the
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: White Sox. Kansas City played the Sunday night game, but
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: they're we're not. We don't have a Monday game here,
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: so you know, I don't think it matters that much
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: that they played the night game. Now they have a
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: day off. The White Sox were also off yesterday, so
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: we also have rested bullpens here. The White Sox are
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: staying at home, but they're coming off beating the Mariners,
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: so you know, maybe the White Sox will feel a
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: little bit good about themselves after beating the Mariners, which
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: I think could set them up for maybe a letdown here,
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: but maybe not, because Kansas City has been playing better
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: and this is a divisional matchup. The teams are tied
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: right now in the atrocious Ale Central are The only
• 50:56
  Speaker 3: team above five hundred is Cleveland. Oh god, actually sorry,
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: the White Sox are a half game above Kansas City.
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: My mistake. Kansas City did just lose their last game
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: to Detroit. Now they're starting a road trip. Usually starting
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: a road trip is a focused spot. But you know,
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: you could make the argument both teams are gonna show
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: up here because this is a divisional series. So both
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: bullpens have been bad. White Sox are twenty fifth, Kansas
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: City twenty six, so these are bullpens. They're rested, but
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: you can fade these bullpens. Both teams have actually been
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: hitting pretty well, which is not really expected. Did not
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: see that last year from these teams. White Sox are
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: up to eleventh in offense, Royals are twelfth, So these
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: teams could definitely hit and we know that well. Actually, sorry,
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: I was thinking we're in Kansas City. We're not. We're
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: in the South side of Chicago for this game here.
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: Stephen Kolek is gonna make the start for the Royals.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point five ERA so far. It's
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: in a small sample so far. While that doesn't look
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: that good, his whip is really good at point sixty seven,
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: so he has not put a lot of guys on base.
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: But he's only made one one start so far, so
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: you can't really put much weight into that. It was
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: a home a home game against Cleveland. He did do
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: well He went six innings, allowed three on runs, three strikeouts,
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: no walks, four hits a lot. It was a good outing,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: but Cleveland not a very good offense. The White Sox
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: are a little bit of a step up from Cleveland,
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: which sounds hilarious, but that is true. Now, colek last
• 52:26
  Speaker 3: year he had kind of interesting splits. I think, Yeah,
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: he was bad at home last year, for whatever whatever
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: that's worth. He was good on the road though, two
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: point three six roady I ray. And it's even weirder
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: because he pitched most of the season with San Diego,
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: So it's very very strange that in San Diego's Baullt
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: Park he pitched that badly in a very pitcher friendly park.
• 52:47
  Speaker 3: Then he went to Kansas City, which was also a
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: very pitcher friendly park. I don't know, it's very weird
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: that he pitched better on the road. Kansas City not
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: a pitcher friendly park anymore. But we don't care for
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: this game because this is in the White Sox stadium.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: But Cole might pitch well because he did pitch well
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: on the road last year. His numbers against the White
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: Sox only Derek Hill has ever faced him, and he's
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: zero for one off him, no walks, no strikeouts, so
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: Colek basically is completely unfamiliar to the White Sox and
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: he might actually pitch well year, because I talk about this,
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: when a guy is unfamiliar to the opposing lineup, a
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: lot of times the lineup, you know, struggles to get
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: used to the pitcher. Although Colek, you know, he's twenty
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: nine years old, so he's not exactly a mystery. He's
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: been around for a while, but the White Sox hitters
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: have not seen him in a live game environment before.
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: Eric Fetti is pitching for the White Sox. He's actually
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: been alright this year three point seven to nine ERA
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: and one point one to three WHIP. He's been pretty
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: good at home two point four to one ERA, so
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: you know, Feedti. He was a complete fade for me
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: last year and this year he's not. Although he didn't
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: do well in his last out and he was at Anaheim,
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: but Anaheim had just faced him in the prior start,
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: so I think Anaheim maybe made adjustments to him and
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: hit him a lot better. In Anaheim's home state. That
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: looks like more of a fluke to me for now, though,
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: because he's allowed three or fewer earned runs and all
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: the rest of his outings. But you look at his
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: overall numbers, they're not that good. Twenty four strikeouts and
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: thirty eight innings. He doesn't striggle a lot of guys out.
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: He has thirteen walks, which is you know, I mean,
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: it's mediocre. He has a few starts where he definitely
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: walked too many, but it's not awful, and then he
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: has thirty hits allowed, which is pretty good. So yeah,
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: Fedi seems to have turned it around a bit after
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: he was awful with Saint Louis. But he's back with
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: the White Sox where he was earlier in his career,
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: and he is pitching pretty well this year. Against Kansas City,
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: they have seventy two career at bats against him. These
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: numbers are all pretty average. Fourteen to five strike out
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: walk raz, youre two fifty average an average average allowed,
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: and seven to fifty seven ops. So there's not a
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: lot that we could take away from that except that
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: Kansas City is very familiar with him. So Kolek does
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: have the unfamiliarity edge. And if you want to put
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: Wayne in to that, you know, I suppose I guess
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: I would lean slightly towards Kansas City here for that reason,
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: but you know, I don't really want to fade Fetti,
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: and he's pretty good at home this year. And the
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: money is coming in on the White Sox pretty strongly,
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: sixty percent of tickets on the Royals, ninety one percent
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: of the money on the White Sox, So the margt
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: Reed does say White Sox here. Money also hitting the
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: over pretty strong, with a total of nine and a half.
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: So the oddsmakers are telling you they do think this
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: is gonna be a higher scoring game. I'm not so
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: sure about that. I mean, I could see the starting
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: pitching doing decent. If you're gonna go over in this game,
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: you definitely have to go full game on it so
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: that you take advantage of two pretty bad bullpens. But
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: I don't really want to do it because the starting
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: pitching is not really conducive to it. Yeah, I mean,
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: I would probably slightly lean Kansas City, but I really
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: don't love it. Yeah, and the money is definitely in
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: disagreement with that. All right, I'm gonna be right back.
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: I still haven't gotten to my play. My play is
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: in one of the late games only play of the
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: day and then I'm gonna talk about let me see,
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: well we have yeah, we have six games left, all right,
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: I'll talk about one more. I'll keep it consistent. Then
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna take a break. I'll be back to talk
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: about the rest of these and all the other sports
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: that are going on, including playoffs. Sparrow, what's up? Thanks
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: for hanging out. All right? We have a Miami at Minnesota.
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: These teams also did not play yesterday. Yesterday, not a
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: lot of baseball yesterday. There were six games. I think
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: I said five in the morning, but it was six.
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: Minnesota is returning home from a road trip. They went
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: to Washington and Cleveland. But the return from Cleveland is
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: not really that bad. You know, within the division, pretty
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: close geographically, so I'm not as worried about that. But yes,
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: it is still a road trip return still a negative.
• 56:43
  Speaker 3: When a team returns home from a road trip and
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: they've been gone for like a week, you know, they
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: have to get back to home life. It could be
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: a distraction. Maybe they don't pay attention to an interleague
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: series against Miami. So not a great spot from Minnesota here.
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: Miami probably in the better spot. There's starting a road trip,
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: but they did just win a divisional series against Washington,
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: so you could make the argument it's a letdown spot.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: But usually when a team starts a road trip, they
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: want to get it off on the right foot, so
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: usually get more focus out of them. So the situation
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: to me favors Miami here. As far as the bullpens,
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: they're both rested. Minnesota's bullpen is absolutely horrible. They're second
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: to last only because Houston is just that bad. Minnesota
• 57:26
  Speaker 3: is almost that bad though, they're really really bad in
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: the bullpen twenty ninth and Miami's been good at fifth,
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: so Miami has a huge bullpen advantage here. Although both
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: bullpens are rested, which you know does me in Minnesota
• 57:38
  Speaker 3: at least has you know they could use their better relievers.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's really gonna help them, though
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: Miami has fallen off a bit on the offensive end
• 57:47
  Speaker 3: of things. They're sixteenth now Minnesota thirteenth, so Minnesota has
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: hit a little bit better, but the bullpen had just
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: huge for Miami. Generally, I think I prefer Miami's starter here,
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: like Uri per against Bailey Ober. I think Juri Perez
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: has way higher upside. He's a much younger pitcher man
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: with a lot of talent, but I think he's already
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: had like multiple Tommy John surgeries and he's only twenty three,
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: and he's been pretty erratic this year. He hasn't pitched
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: that well. Five point zero one ERA, one point four
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: to three Whip. He is wild man, really wild, and
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: he's been bad on the road, so I think he's
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: pretty unbackable here. Seven point four to three Roady Ray.
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: That's not good. His uh two outings this month, he
• 58:32
  Speaker 3: has a twelve seven strikeout walk ratio. His team lost
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: both games. He lost both of them. He went five
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: innings in each of them, but he did a lot
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: of five earn runs and five walks in the last
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: one against Baltimore. That's not good. It's kind of a
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: microcosm of what he's done all season. He's got forty
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: five strikeouts and forty one to third innings, which is
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: a pretty good rate, but twenty one walks is insane.
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: He's allowed thirty eight hits, which is not too bad.
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: He's hard to hit, but he's wild. Like I said,
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: he walks a ton of guys and he's allowed some
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: power hitting as well. Seven home runs, which isn't that great.
• 59:07
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Perez. I mean, his main issue though, is
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: he needs to figure out how to control himself as
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: far as the walks man, that is the big concern
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: with him. He's definitely capable of really of pitching well.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: He's capable of striking out a lot of guys at
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: the major league level. Man Minnesota does not have good
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: numbers off him either. He's got twenty one career at
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: bats against them. They only have two hits one extra
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: base hit a double from Larnac. They have seven strikeouts,
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: no walks, own ninety five average against him two thirty
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: eight ohps. It's a small sample, but Perez has dominated
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: the Twins. So he is definitely capable of pitching well. Here.
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: I worry about his road splits being significantly bad though,
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: Like he is really bad on the road. That worries me.
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: You know, just how wild he's been worries me. Bailey
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: ober is pitching for the Twins. He's I think he's
• 59:58
  Speaker 3: been the more consist pitcher this year though, even though
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's the better of the two pitchers.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: Four point one to nine ERA from him, one point
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 3: one to nine whip not bad He's been good at home,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: so the home road splits favor over here three point
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: two to one. Home e ra pretty good. He wasn't
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: good in his last outing, of course, it was on
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: the road at Washington. They can hit pretty well. That
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 3: was the game where I we won on the over
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: In that game, Minnesota's bullpen gave up ten runs in
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: that game. That bullpen is atrocious. Dude, ober was, you know,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: not horrible in the game, but he went five innes
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: gave up five in runs. It was his worst start
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: of the season. His overall numbers are not too bad,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: but his walk number is kind of concerning. Thirty two
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: strikeouts and forty three innings. He doesn't strike out a
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: lot of guys. He's only allowed thirty six hits, which
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: is pretty good, but fifteen walks is kind of a problem.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: So you'd like to see him get that under control
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: a bit more. And throughout his career he really hasn't
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: had that many issues with the walk. Like his problem
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: is usually that he's too hittable, so he seems to
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: have change some things up, although it seems like he
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: is generally kind of improved a little bit. I don't know, man,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: he's a very very streaky pitcher, though, like sometimes he
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: looks really good for long stretches and then sometimes he
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: looks really bad for long stretches. As numbers against Miami,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: they do not have a lot of experience against him.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: Thirteen at bats, two thirty one average, allowed six forty
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: one ohps four to two strikeout walk ratio, and they
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: only have one extra base hit, a double from Xavier Edwards.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: Xavier Edwards, all right, I keep saying Xavier like the
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: maybe it is I don't know, like the basketball school.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: All right, Yeah, this game is very unpredictable, man, I
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: don't like the situation from Minnesota. Like I said, the
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: money is indicating on Miami. I think Miami definitely has
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: a huge bullpen edge. So if you go with Miami,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: obviously you gotta go full game money line on that
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: to get the bullpen advantage. Fifty percent of tickets ninety
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on Miami. I probably agree
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: with Miami, but the home road splits are very much
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: against their starting pitching here. Money's coming in a little
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: bit on the over as well. Minnesota. By the way,
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: it's about a minus one ten favorite. It's basically around
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: to pick the winner price, you might be able to
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: find Miami at a slight dog price there Minnesota. I mean,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: I don't know. You can make the argument for Minnesota
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: in the first five innings because Ober has the better
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: matchup stats. But again, or excuse me, no, Perez has
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: the better matchup stats. They both have good matchup stats,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: but Ober has the better home road splits my mistake,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: But you know, I mean to me, a first five
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 3: under actually makes some sense in this game. To me,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 3: I think because both pitchers actually have good matchup numbers here,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: I could see both pitchers pitching well enough to get
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: that thing under. I wouldn't go full game because, as
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: you know, Minnesota's bullpen can completely implode that on you,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: so I'd want to avoid that, even though Miami's bullpen
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: is quite good. So that's what I think about the game.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: I would overall lean to Miami full game, and I
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: think first five under makes the most sense as far
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: as a total in that game. The total is nine
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: for the full game juiced to the under. All Right,
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: so first five you're probably looking at four and a
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: half there or something like that. All right, I'm gonna
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: be right back and then we'll finish this off. You know,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: we don't have too many games left, only five of them,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: so if you can guess which game is the play
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: for me. I'm trying to get all the remaining games
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 3: I haven't talked about in view here, which I can't
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 3: quite do it, but whatever, all right, I'll be right back,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: all right, remaining games here, let's zoom back in here.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: All right, we have Arizona. Oh no, sorry, San Diego
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: and Milwaukee. Milwaukee is staying at home, but they did
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: just sweep the Yankees, which is a pretty good series
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: for them. Possible let down for Milwaukee after that, although
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: they've been playing pretty well, but that was a good
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: series for them. San Diego coming in off of winning
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: the last two games to split the series with Saint
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: Louis starting a road trip. Usually teams starting a road
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: trip is focus. San Diego probably feels pretty good right
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: now though, because they did wind up ahead of the
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: Dodgers for now, although they're clearly not better than the Dodgers,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: but for now they have a half game lead over
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 3: them in the division. I think San Diego not as
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: good as their record looks, and the oddsmakers are telling
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: you that the oddsmakers are favoring Milwaukee here a little
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: bit more than what the home field advantage would give them,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I agree Milwaukee's the better team, but I
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: don't really want Milwaukee off of that big series with
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: the Yankees. Bullpen wise, San Diego is back where you
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 3: would think they would either third in bullpen definitely one
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: of the best bullpens. Milwaukee has been okay in the bullpen.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: They are seventeenth right now and both bullpen's arrested. Neither
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: team played yesterday. San Diego has been pretty weak offensively
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: twenty seventh not good, and the Brewers haven't been that
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: good either. Twenty third. I think they're starting to get
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: maybe a little bit healthier. The starting pitching matchup in
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: this game is pretty interesting. Matt Waldron is pitching for
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: San Diego. Yeah, he's been pretty bad this year, but
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: he's a knuckleball pitcher, so he's very hard to predict.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: Seven point seven to one ERA, one point five to
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: five whip. I think he's the only knuckleball pitcher in
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: baseball at this point. He's been bad on the road
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: eight point five six roadyra kind of makes sense that
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: he'd be better at home. And a pitcher friendly ballpark,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: especially because the knuckleball induces more fly balls. But he
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: did pitch really well in his last outing he gets Francisco.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: He was very good, went five innings, seven strikeouts, no
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: walks for a knuckleballer's pretty wild, or is the opposite
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: of wild. He gave up one ear and run on
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: a home run, of course, on two hits. San Francisco
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: is a very bad offense though, but still, I mean,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: he seems to be trending in the right direction. His
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: last two starts have both been okay, and one of
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: them was against the Cobs. He's overall got a fifteen
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: to five strike out walk ratio, which is not too bad.
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: Twenty four hits a lot in eighteen to two thirds
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 3: innings is too many. But Waldron, I don't think he's
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: as bad as his numbers look like. If you look
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: at his career numbers, they're like exactly what you would
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: expect for a knuckleball or like mediocre across the board numbers,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 3: you know. So I think he is better than these
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: numbers would suggest. And Milwaukee, I believe, has very little
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: experience against him. Yeah, only Hamilton, former Red sod player.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: I believe in Renhifo. Those are the only guys that
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: I've ever faced him before, and Renhifoh as a single,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: they're combined one for six off him, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: So you know, Milwaukee, they might struggle here just because
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: they're not used to facing the knuckleball. They haven't seen
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: this guy really before. So Matt Waldron might actually do
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: okay here in this game. Brandon Spro dis pitching for Milwaukee.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: He has not been good five point eight seven e
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: RA one point five to three WHIP. He's been bad
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: at home six point six y two home ERA. Don't
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: like that. He was okay in his last down. He
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 3: only went four innings, though, I think he might have
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: pitched out of the bullpen against Saint Louis. He'd won
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 3: to hit them and shut them out, though, but at
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: five strikeouts three walks wasn't good though, sprot. I mean, overall,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: his numbers are not good. Thirty strikeouts, eighteen walks, that's
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: not good. Twenty nine hits allowed in thirty and two
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 3: thirds innings. It looks like he is getting the start here.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: Don't really know how deep he's gonna go in this game.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: I probably prefer Waldron over him Man, so I think
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 3: I do lean to san Diego here. Sprout against San Diego,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: though he is unfamiliar to them, so maybe he does
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: have a little bit of an edge there where they
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: haven't seen him before. So a lot of unfamiliarity here
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: at these pictures, so San Diego might not hit him. Well,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 3: I am gonna lean san Diego here, though I think
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: I prefer Waldron over Sprout. I prefer the situation a
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: little bit more. This is not my play though, I
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: mean it's I think it's a little bit too unpredictable
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: for me. But fifty ticket sixty five percent of the
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: cash on San Diego, I agree with that. The market
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: seems to agree on that.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: One.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is at about minus one twenty five or so here. Uh,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: so you can get san Diego in an underdog price.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: San Diego will have a bullpen edge in that game
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: as well, So full game san Diego makes some sense
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: to me. An undermakes sense as well to me. The
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: totals at eight and a half, it's pretty juiced on
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: the over there. I don't know if we're really gonna
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: see a nine though, although it looks like it open
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: at nine, but it was fairly heavily juiced to the under.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: It's ninety five percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, nobody's gonna want to play an under in
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: this game, like from the public perspective, like why would they?
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: With these two pitchers that have really bad numbers? And
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: I think they both might have a little bit of
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 3: a hidden edge here enough so that they can pitch
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: okay and then we have decent bullpends that are rested.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: The offense have both struggled this year too, so there
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: are some things that line up for an under in
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: that game. But that's not really something I want to
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 3: do either, So I'm staying off the game. But that's
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 3: what I think about it. Arizona at Texas, Texas. These
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: teams did play yesterday, and I told you I thought
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 3: Texas was in a bit of a letdown after beating
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: the Cubs twice, and Arizona won one to nothing in
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: that game yesterday. Surprising that Arizona only gives up one run,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: But it's the Texas factor, man, Texas at home. The
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: books can't possibly put the total low enough in these
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: Texas games, man, Like they're averaging like five and a
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: half a half games per per game at home. Now
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 3: like total, Texas has allowed the fewest runs in baseball
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: as a home team, and they've also scored the fewest
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: runs in baseball as a home team. The unders are
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: some ridiculous clip in Texas home games, like fourteen to
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: two and two or something like that. Now, absolutely ridiculous.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: I still don't like Arizona's bullpen. They used three relief
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: pitchers yesterday. I do like Texas bullpen, and they use
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: a lot. They used five relief pitchers yesterday. That's not great,
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: So Texas. I don't know what happened because I think
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: Evaldi pitched that game yesterday, right, Maybe I'm wrong about that.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know what was going on there. He looks
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: like maybe he got hurt. That wouldn't be good unless
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 3: was this an extra inning game. No, it wasn't. Yeah,
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the hell happened in that game anyway. Yeah,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: very very weird. I forget what I was about to say.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, the bullpen's Texas. I think they are the
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: better bullpen, the ranked fourth, Arizona's ranked second, Yet their
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: ERA is almost two runs worse than Texas's. Yeah, no,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: I don't think Arizona's bullpen is that good. I have
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: no idea how their whip is that low. Uh, they
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: must have allowed a lot. Yeah, they've allowed a lot
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: of home runs. Seventeen home runs. So yeah, Texas is
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen. We'll leave it at that. Although Texas
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: is a little bit unrested though, so that does kind
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: of negate that neither team has really hit that well
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: this year. As we saw it last night, Arizona twenty third,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: Texas twenty six, So we're looking at two offenses that
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: have struggled. Zach Gallan is pitching for Arizona, though, I
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: mean the starting pitching in this game, you know, might
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: be more run conducive, Like this is not a Texas game, right,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: particularly like the under Let's just put it that way.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: Gallon hasn't been that good for the d Backs. Four
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: point seven e RA and one point four to nine
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: whip is really bad. You can't put one and a
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: half guys on basin inning. He's got an awful road
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 3: ERA seven point one to three. But he's pitching in
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: a pitcher friendly ballpark here, so maybe he won't do
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 3: that bad. But he has been bad on the road,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: so that doesn't look great. Twenty five twelve strike out
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is not impressive. Forty five hits allowed in
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: thirty eight and a third innings, that's not good. It's
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: too many hits. The walk numbers is not that great.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: It's a low strikeout rate. Something not right with Gallon. Man,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know what the deal is. He was a
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: decent pitcher a couple of years ago. Yeah, I don't
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 3: know what's going on with him, but not great. His numbers,
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: it gets Texas are pretty mediocre. They have a lot
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: of at bats against him. One hundred and twenty thirty
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: two strikeouts, ten walks. That's not too bad for him,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 3: but too sixty seven average allowed, seven forty oh ps.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: Those numbers are right in like the average range. There
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: where neither neither Gallon nor the offense has an advantage
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: in that matchup. And that's a big sample size. Mackenzie
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: Gore is pitching for Texas. He started to pitch pretty
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: poorly five point one to EIGHTYRA one point four whip.
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 3: I thought being with Texas would allow him to prove
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: and he has been better at home, still a three
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: point three to eight homie I Ray, so he does
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: pitch well in the stadium. His last couple outings have
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: kind of hurt him. But he's had four road starts
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: in his last five starts, and one of them was
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 3: at the A's Stadium, which is very difficult to pitch in,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: one was in the Bronx, and one was at Detroit,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: and all those teams can hit well too, so you know,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: he's been facing a gauntlet recently, so that's affected his
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: numbers as well. Arizona is going to be a step down.
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: He might be able to pitch better against Arizona here
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: because they're not as good of a hitting team as
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: those teams, but then again, his numbers against them are
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: not good. In thirty eight at bats three sixteen average allowed,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 3: seven to seventy two oh ps, seven to one strike
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: out walk ratio is good, but those numbers are not
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: very good. Ronado and Guriel Junior both have hit him
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 3: pretty well. His overall numbers forty eight strikeouts and forty innings. Yeah,
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: he's striking a lot of guys out, which is good,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 3: but his walk number is still a huge concern twenty
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: one walks. So he has not figured it out. Man.
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: That's always been his problem as the walks, and it
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 3: remains an issue. He's walked three guys in each of
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: his last three outings. He's only allowed thirty five hits
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 3: in forty innings, so that's not bad, but again, the
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: walks huge issue. I can't do anything with the game.
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 3: You know, I might lean over in that game. I
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: know Texas has a good bullpend whatever, but you know
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 3: the Texas the Unders. Every home game for them is
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: not gonna be an under, even though it is a
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: very strong trend. But this particular game doesn't look particularly
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: underworthy to me. The totals at eight, we got a
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: ninety three percent of the tickets, ninety four percent of
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: the cash on the under. But I don't know. I
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 3: could see this one actually going over. In this one,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: although Gore has been better at home at least, but
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: the matchup numbers don't look good. The money is coming
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 3: in on Arizona a little bit. I'm not sure I
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: agree with that. Sixty four percent of ticket sixty eight
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on Arizona. I don't know. I
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: think I'd probably still prefer Gore generally over gallon better
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: home road splits. Neither pitcher has great matchup numbers. The
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: Gores are worse, but not by that much. Texas is
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: about minus one twenty something here. I'd probably lean to
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: Texas slightly. Next game up Seattle at Houston. These teams
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: did play yesterday. Seattle won three to one. I was
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: correct about Seattle as well. You know a lot of
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: my leans were correct yesterday. But you know that's what happens.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: When you're selective and you know what you're doing, You're
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: gonna get a lot of things right that you didn't
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: actually have. As a play. Seattle used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: which isn't that great most of their better relievers. In fact,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: their bullpen is the better bullpen here, but they did
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: use four relief pitchers yesterday. Houston has the worst bullpen
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: in baseball, though they only used two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: but I'm not even so sure it's gonna matter. Houston's
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: bullpen is easily the worst in baseball, absolutely atrocious. They
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: finally got their ERA below six way to go he
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: Seattle isn't ranked that well. They're at sixteenth, but their
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: ERA is three point three one, so they do have
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: one of the best bullpen eerras. Clearly, Seattle is the
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: better bullpend even though they're a little bit unrested here.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: Houston still remains pretty good offensively. Fifth Seattle has not
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: been very good. Twentieth offensively. We got Brian Wu pitching
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: for Seattle. He pitched well in his last outing after
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 3: he had two really bad outings. Wu is still a
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 3: really good pitcher, though in my opinion, four point oh
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: two ERA isn't that great, but a one whip is solid.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: He's been not as good on the road, which is expected.
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 3: Seattle's pitchers basically all pitch better in home in their
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: home stadium because it's a pitcher friendly ballpark. He's got
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 3: a four point five road ERA, but I think he's
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 3: better than that. He had a one hit, six inning
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: performance against the Braves last time out with nine strikeouts
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: two walks. He was excellent in that outing against a
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 3: good offense. It was at home, but yeah, I think
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: he's back and form. After he had two weirdly bad
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: outings against Saint Louis and Kansas City that looked flukey
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: to me. I think he's he's a really good pitcher.
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: We've seen him pitch for years now. We know what
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 3: he is. Aside from those two bad outings, he's a
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: lot three or fewer earned runs and all the rest
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: of his outings he's not really a huge strikeout guy
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: thirty eight strikeouts and forty seven innings, but he does
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: not put guys on base either. Eight walks is really low.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: Thirty nine hits allowed also low. So yeah, I like WU.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Hugh Houston are more on the mediocres,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: more in the mediocre range, though forty nine at bats.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: He does have a really good seventeen to two strikeout
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: walk ratio against them, two sixty five average a lot
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: seven to twenty three oh ps though, So like Kirby
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: last night, he had really really good numbers against Houston,
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: WU actually doesn't, so you know, it's a game I'm
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: gonna stay away from. But I do like Wu in general. Uh,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: Seattle has the better bullpen. Still, I think Wu is
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 3: better than his counterpart here, Tatsuya Emi, who is a
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: talented pitcher. I mean he's you know, he's drawing comparison
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 3: to like Tim Lincecum, which makes sense because he's already
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: gone on the injured list. So yeah, he's definitely Tim
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: Linsecam esque in the fact that they're both kind of
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: small dudes, and they throw hard and they have a
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: really weird like jerky arm motion. Also kind of interesting.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: We have two Asian pitchers going up against each other
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: here the Battle of Asia here. Emi came over from
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: Japan this year for Houston. He hasn't been good, though,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: I don't I don't think we could trust him right now.
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: Seven point two seven E Ray two point zero eight
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 3: whip is really bad. He's been bad in this stadium
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 3: at home thirteen point five Ray, although it was only
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: in one start, so you can't really take a whole
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: lot out of that. I believe Seattle has not faced him. Actually, no,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: I think they did. Actually I'm mistaken. Yeah, he had
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: one start against Seattle and it was bad. They had
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: think about this. Seattle had two at bats against him,
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: yet seven of the hitters faced him. How is that possible. Well,
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: it's because they had four walks against him, and then
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: I think he hit Arose Areno with a pitch as well,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 3: because he's overall with no walks, but he has an RBI.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: Maybe he reached on an error, whatever it was. This
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 3: is bad stuff, man, so overall. Yet these are awful numbers,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: but it's a small sample. But most of their lineup
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: did see him once five hundred batting average thirteen to
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: fifty seven ops, so we could see that number that
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: start in the game logs. That was his most recent
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 3: start at Seattle. He only he only managed to record
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: one out, He gave up a hit, four walks, struck
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: out nobody in three or in runs scored. That's bad
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 3: he did. He was good in his previous outing though,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: at the A's stadium, so you give him credit for that.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: He shut the A's out in a pretty bad pitching environment,
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: went five to two third shutout innings there. But his
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: walk number is really bad, so I don't think we
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: could trust him for that reason. His strikeout raid is impressed,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: like the fact that he had no strikeouts in his
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 3: last start against Seattle. It was only a third of
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: an inning. He saws thirteen strikeouts in eight and two
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 3: thirds innings and seven hits allowed. Nothing really bad about that.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: He could strike guys out at the major league level,
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: but the eleven walks is outrageous. So yeah, he said
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: no outing where he's walked fewer than three. He's got
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 3: to do something about that. And the unfamiliarity had just
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: kind of gone for him because Seattle has been one
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: of the only teams that's actually faced him before. So
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 3: I talk about, you know, when a pitcher comes into
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: the majors, they might have a little bit of an
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 3: advantage when they're unfamiliar to the opposing hitters. Within that
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: second time they see him, they tend to do a
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: lot better, and that's what we get with Seattle here.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: So I think the only way to really look at
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: this game is to lean towards Seattle, and the money
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 3: is not agreeing with me. Seattle's in like the minus
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: one fifty something range here. It would have to be
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 3: probably a split run line money line bets, so I
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: don't really want to do it, but I think WU
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: is clearly the more stable picture right now, the more
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: proven picture by far. And then you get Seattle's huge
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: bullpen advantage as well, although it's not quite as huge
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 3: again because they did use four guys yesterday, but still
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 3: that Houston bullpen's bad seventy tickets eighty nine percent of
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: the cash on Houston, though the money seems to be
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: leaning towards Houston. One other approach that you could go
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: with is Seattle over their team total. The full game
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: totals eight and a half if you want. I mean,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: Seattle could definitely hit Emi after they've already seen him
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: once he struggled. Houghs' bullpen is awful, so Seattle could
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: definitely score some runs here, So that makes sense to
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: me to do it that way. Seattle over their team total.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: All right, dude, I want to get this show done. Man,
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: this is bad. The best bet is the next game this.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: I know this seems uglimber. We're going with the picture
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 3: that I don't even think is the better of these
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: two pitchers here, but we're gonna do it anywhere. We're
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: gonna take the Saint Louis Cardinals, and I know I
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 3: keep saying they're not as good as their record looks.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: I know all that. I think that's still the case.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: But this is where I landed with my only play
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: of the day. The situation lines up, the pitching, believe
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: it or not, lines up well enough for me to
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: give this out as a play. It's a split bet,
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: partially on the plus one and a half run line
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: at minus one forty five and the rest of it
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: plus one thirty five on the money line. If you
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: want to just go money line, I'm not gonna disagree
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 3: with doing that. If you want to just play the
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: money line just outright, you could do that, and then
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: you have to put less money at risk if you
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 3: want to do it that way. I'm gonna do it
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: this way, so if they lose by one, it'll be
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: a push for me. It's at a minus one oh
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: four price here, and you can see that if this
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: was out of one hundred sixty one point seven of
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: it would be on the minus one forty five part
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: of it of it on the run line here, even
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: though I mean he flips his because he this Johnny
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: Ma guy, you know, has this calculator set up so
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: that he's assuming the money line is the favorite part
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: of it, but always with the favorite price in this
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: part of it, even if it's not the money line.
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: He's assuming that we're talking about the favorite in the game.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: But I'm doing it as an underdog this time. So
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 3: you can see how that works. Basically, if you win
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: the run line part of it, whatever that amount is,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: you put that amount on the money line so it
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: would cover that amount of it. So if they lose
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: by one in this case, it'll be a push and
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 3: you'll get your money back, So that is what we're
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 3: gonna do here now looking at this situation. First of all,
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 3: the situation is bad for the A's. They were just
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 3: on the road. They're coming home from the East Coast.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 3: They went to Philadelphia and Baltimore. They went three and
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: three on the road trip. It was a decent road
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: trip for them. They lost the last game on the
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 3: road trip, which lost a three game win streak for them.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: So I do think that a lot of times when
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 3: a team lose a win streak, they'll be hung over
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: into the next game. It wasn't a long win streak,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 3: so I'm not too concerned about that, but I think
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 3: it is still a factor. But the big factor here
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: is the A's are returning home from a long road
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 3: trip too, or not a long road trip, but a
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: road trip that was a week long at least, returning
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: across country. They have to travel across three time zones,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: they have to readjust to the Pacific time zone. They
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 3: have to get back to home life, which is a
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: distraction on top of all that. I know Saint Louis
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: has played pretty well, but you know, it's an interleague series.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's really gonna help totally focus
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: the A's here, and the A's they don't have any
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: like home field advantage either. Really, you could definitely fade
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 3: them at home. Their pitching tends to be not very
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: good at home, which is part of this handicap here.
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: It's an interesting way to look at this game in
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: my opinion. Saint Louis, by the way, has been really
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: good on the road, thirteen and seven on the roads.
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: We have that in our back pocket here getting them
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 3: as an underdog. A's only eight and eight at home.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: And while yes, I know there's a reason the A's
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 3: are favored here, that's because their starting pitcher is getting
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 3: respect in this game. And yes, I mean he is
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 3: the better story pitcher, like I said, but I think
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 3: the matchup and the situation here put us on the
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 3: other side of this even though so yes, I think
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis is going to fall off at some point,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: but not yet, and the situation is a lot better
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: from them because guess who doesn't have to change time
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: zones at all. Yeah, that would be Saint Louis. By
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 3: the way, both these teams did not play yesterday, so
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 3: they're both rested. But Saint Louis just lost two games
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 3: to San Diego, but they're staying in California in the
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 3: Pacific time zone, So I think that's a huge advantage
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: to them, because the A's are having to travel across
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: multiple time zones. So the travel edge for Saint Louis
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: is huge in my opinion here. So we have that
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 3: going for us on top of the already bad situation.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: The A's are in bullpen wise, neither bullpen is good.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: The A's are twenty fourth, Saint Louis is twenty second.
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: You know, neither bullpen is trustworthy. But you know, I mean,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: going with the situation and whatever, I don't think there's
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: a huge advantage one way or the other. And in fact,
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis at least does actually have the slightly better
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 3: bullpen right now. Hitting wise, both teams have hit well.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: The A's are seventh, Saint Louis is fifteenth. But I'm
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: not gonna put that much weight into all that. Yeah,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 3: the A's are a little bit better hitting, that's fine,
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: but I think, you know, I put more weight into
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: pitching than hitting. And we are backing Andre Payone here,
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: and I know I'm not really a fan of him.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: His numbers don't really indicate anything that good. Four point
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: three four ERA, one point three seven whip, I get it,
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: that's not very good. He puts too many guys on base.
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 3: But he's been good on the road. I don't know
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 3: why that's the case. Five point nine to one ERA
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 3: at home and a pitcher friendly ballpark Saint Louis. He
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: doesn't pitch well there, but he's got a two point
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: twenty five roady ra Okay, so yeah, he's good on
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: the road. But you're probably saying, yeah, but he's pitching
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: in this A's Triple A stadium. It's a horrible stadium, Like,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 3: why would you want to have him? You know, why
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: would you want to back him here? Well, this is
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: why he he's kind of an extreme ground ball pitcher.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 3: Saying that that can kind of negate the home run.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: You know how home run conduced to the stadium is
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: you want a guy that's gonna be putting balls into
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 3: the ground. That doesn't sound right, but you know what
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: I mean. He's induced more ground balls than flyballs this
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: year and last year that was the case as well,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 3: Like he had more than one hundred more ground ball
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 3: outs than flyball outs last year, so it was pretty extreme.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: And the only really comparison that we can make is
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: he did pitch in the middle of the summer at
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: Course Field last year and he wasn't great in that game,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 3: but he also didn't allow any home runs. So that
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: seems good to me, you know what I mean. He's
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 3: limiting the amount of home runs that he allows in
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: these stadiums, even though I know he actually allowed twenty
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 3: one home runs last year, which isn't really that good.
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: But he's a ground ball pitcher man, so I like
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: that aspect of it. I think that can help him
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 3: out here. He hasn't allowed that many home runs this year,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: five home runs. He's got twenty nine strikeouts, sixteen walks,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: thirty five hits a lot in thirty seven to third innings.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 3: And I know the number of walks is bad. He's
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 3: not a huge strikeout guy, I know, but I think
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 3: he's at least capable. He's decent on the road. His
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: two bad starts have both been at home against Milwaukee
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: and Boston for whatever reason. His last start was that
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 3: one against Milwaukee, but he was pitching pretty well prior
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: to that. He pitched well, for example, on the road
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: against Houston, who is a good hitting team, Pittsburgh as
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 3: well Milwaukee. I mean, that wasn't even that bad of
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: a start. I think he got a little bit unlucky
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: with the fact that a lot of the guys that
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 3: he put on base wound up scoring. And then we
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: have to look at his numbers against the A's, and
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 3: the A's are very unfamiliar with him. Only him and
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: McNeil have ever faced him. They each have a single
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: off him. They're two for nine Offen with a strikeout,
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 3: no walks. So we have an unfamiliarity edge here for
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 3: Payan David, though I know he's not really a mystery.
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: He's twenty seven now and there's game footage on him
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: and whatever. But still, you know the fact that he's
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: a ground ball pitcher, the fact that he's unfamiliar here,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 3: I think does help him. And he has good home
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: road splitz Jeffrey Springs. The home road splits are gonna
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: go the opposite of him. And I know he's pitched
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 3: well this year. I know, three point eight ninety r
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 3: one point one four win he's been good. He's pitching
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: for the A's here, but he's been significantly worse in
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: this stadium four point eight seventy ra here at home.
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 3: He's allowed five of the seven home runs that he's
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 3: allowed here at home. His overall numbers, yes, they're pretty good.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: Thirty nine strikeouts, twelve walks, thirty eight hits, a lot
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: of forty four innings. Not a huge strikeout number, but
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: the rest of those numbers are pretty good. I know
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: the starts where he has done worse though. He got
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: blown up by the White Sox at home. Did have
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: one bad start on the road against Texas. I mean,
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 3: it wasn't great at least, but that's not a great
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: sign because that's a pitcher friendly ballpark. I don't know.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: I mean he's been a little bit all over the map.
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: Like he did pitch really well on the road against
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 3: the Yankees. I don't know, but he's back at home
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 3: here where he doesn't do as well. He did just
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: pitch pretty well on the road against Philly, but he
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: kind of got lucky. He did give up eight hits
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: in the game and only two runs scoring on That
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: is a little bit lucky in my opinion. But he
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: didn't walk anybody four strikeouts, So I don't know, man.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: But then we also look at Springs matchup numbers and
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 3: at Saint Louis, and they're not that good in twenty
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: five at bats. I know it's not a huge sample,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: but they have a two to eighty average against him
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: in seven to seventy three ohps. So I think the
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers do actually lean towards Pyonte in this one.
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: He's got a six to two strike a walk ratio
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 3: Springs does against Saint Louis. But we got the situation
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 3: in our favor here, a travel advantage as well. The
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: home road splits favor this play, and the matchup numbers favorite.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: So Saint Louis is my play here and my only
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: play of the day. The market looks like it doesn't
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: even agree with me. Whatever, man, we got sixty six
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: percent of tickets, only fifty six percent of the cash
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: on Saint Louis. Total is of course high, it's a ten.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know you got the A's stadium, bad bullpens, Yeah, yeah, whatever.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: Not trying to figure out the total here though. Money
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: is coming in on the over though, but not concerned
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: with that here. We're gonna get pretty good under underdog
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: price in my opinion here, even though I know Saint
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: Louis is overrated, but they look like they're more legitimate
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 3: than Cincinnati, does you know what I mean? Like Saint
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 3: Louis and Cincinnati, I thought both teams are gonna completely
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: fall off, but Saint Louis has at least had a
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 3: good offense. Cincinnati has not had a good offense or bullpen.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis has at least had a good offense, So
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 3: there is that. Yeah, I mean, we're gonna go with it.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 3: I don't think the as should be favored like this
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: in a situation like this, I think I've said everything
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: I need to say. That's the one play final game
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: on the baseball slate is Giants Dodgers. The Giants won
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 3: last night. Dodgers lost three in a row. Dodgers I
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 3: thought they might be in a bounced back spot, but
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: instead it looks like they were kind of hung over.
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: They had Sasaki on the mound, who is not exactly
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: their best pitcher, and they were going up against a
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 3: pretty good young pitcher for San Francisco they were unfamiliar with,
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 3: which I already forget what his name is. McDonald, yeah him,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 3: and he wasn't that great in the game, but he
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: was good enough anyway. Dodgers did use a lot of
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: their relief staff last night, though they've had a pretty
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 3: good bullpen this year. But they used five relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: so that's not good. The Giants only used three. Dodgers
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: have had the better bullpen generally. They're down to sixth
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 3: and now in bullpen Giants are inexplicably twenty first, but
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 3: their ERA is in the mid threes, so I do
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 3: think the Giants bullpen is a lot better than twenty first.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 3: In fact, I think they're probably a little bit better
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 3: than the Dodgers' bullpen, So I think the Giants have
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 3: a bullpen edge here. They certainly do not have a
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: hitting edge. Though Dodgers are number two in offense, he
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 3: might argue they're still the best. Probably they are. The
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: Giants are second worst right now, twenty ninth. Huge offensive
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 3: edge for the Dodgers here, and I think they have
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 3: a huge starting pitching edge to Adrian Howser's pitching for
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 3: the Giants six point one to nine ERA, one point
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 3: five to four WHIP. That's not good at all. He's
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: been a little bit better around the road five point
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 3: three to one e RA, which is weird. Because San
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 3: Francisco's UH Park is considered pretty pitcher friendly, so I
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 3: don't know what the deal is there. He bitchwalling his
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: last outing at home against San Diego, but it's San Diego.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 3: They're not a good offense. He was really really struggling
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 3: leading into that game. He's got only nineteen strikeouts and
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 3: thirty six and a third innings. That's not good. He's
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: just not fooling guys. He's allowed forty five hits eleven walks.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: Could be worse, but usually Howser has a better strikeout
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 3: rate than that. That's really really low, man, So there's
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: something off with him right now. And his numbers against
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers are not really good. And fifty seven at
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: bats eleven seven strikeout walk ratio not good. To eighty
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: one batting average allottin eight sixty eight ops also not good.
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 3: So Houser might get housed in this game. He might
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: not do well. And obviously the Dodgers pitcher is the
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: way better of the two, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He's got a
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 3: three point h nine ERA this year, one point zero
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 3: one whip. He's been a little bit better at home
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: two point nine to two homey ra He's been pitching
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 3: well all season. There's not a whole lot else to say.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing,
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 3: forty to ten strike out walk ratio, thirty four hits,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 3: a lot of forty three and two thirds innings, so
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 3: he's thrown six hundred and sixty six pitches on the season. Though, man,
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 3: that's not good. Six six six. Oh man, he's he's satanic.
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 3: But anyway, yeah, I mean, overall, these numbers are good.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 3: Strike out rates not really that high, but everything else
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 3: looks good. He did face San Francisco back on April
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 3: twenty first on the road, went seven innings in that one.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: Actually took a loss because he got no run support.
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 3: In that one. Helled three on runs, seven strikeouts, two walks.
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 3: He wasn't bad in that outing. His numbers against the
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 3: Giants overall are really good. In one hundred and five
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 3: at bats, one eighty one average, allowed five thirty two
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 3: oh ps, thirty four to twelve strike out walk ratio. Yeah,
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 3: I mean to me, the Dodgers, I mean they've lost
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 3: four games in a row. They have a huge starting
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 3: pitching advantage here. The Dodgers make sense to me, But
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 3: it's like, how do you play them at minus three hundred?
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 3: You can't really you could play the run line here.
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 3: I mean, I probably this might be a situation where
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 3: I agree with that. I'm not gonna put it on
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 3: my card, but I think it makes a lot of
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 3: sense to do that bounce back spot for the Dodgers.
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 3: The way better starting pitcher on them, mount way better
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers minus one and a half is probably about
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty, which is, you know, playable at that price,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: But obviously you need the Dodgers to win by at
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: least two runs and oh no, they're at home, which
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 3: means if they're winning, they won't get to bat in
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 3: the ninth inning. But the thing is that if they're winning,
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 3: you should basically, if you're playing, if you're making that play,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 3: you should expect that they're winning by more than one
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 3: run going into the ninth inning. But then, yes, they
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 3: have to not allow any more runs at that point.
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 3: But yes, probably that is how I would play that
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 3: game is run line Dodgers. And I know I've played
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 3: a couple of run lines this year. Dodgers I think
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 3: were the losing run line that I gave out not
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 3: that long ago. On the road that time though, But
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: this one it's a bit more of a juicy price.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know you could go Dodgers over
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 3: their team total to I mean, their offense is too
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 3: good to be stifled like this this many games in
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 3: a row, So if you want to play it that way,
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 3: you could do that too. But then again, they do
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 3: have to face a decent bullpen in this game. But
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 3: Dodgers over their team total makes some sense to me.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 3: All right, WNBA, I got nothing in the WNBA today.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 3: The WNBA returns tonight. Atlanta at Dallas is the first
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 3: game up. Atlanta is clearly the better team here, but
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 3: uh in Dallas. You know, everybody's hyped about Dallas. I
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 3: guess because Dallas. You know they've had the number one
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 3: draft pick two years in a row. Everybody knows who
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 3: Becker's is. They know that her girlfriend is on the
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 3: team now fud, But it takes a while for that
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 3: chemistry to develop. Man and the odds bakers are telling
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 3: you no that Atlanta is the better team, even though
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 3: I don't like ITA's acquisition of Angel Rees, but Atlanta
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 3: is favored on the road. Oddsmakers are telling you they're
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 3: the better team. They're at minus two and a half.
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 3: Dallas looks like they're public seventy one percent of tickets
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: sixty six percent of the cash on them, so it
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 3: looks like they're a dreaded public home underdog here. I
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: think the situation is a little better for Atlanta to
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: Atlanta was favored on the road against Minnesota and almost
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 3: lost the game, and Angel Rees missed a potential game
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 3: winning shot in that game too, and then her team
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: I think bailed her out and made the shot for her.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: But anyway, they won the game. They were decent favorites,
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 3: So I like Atlanta here, but one hesitation I do
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: have is beating Minnesota. I mean, Minnesota is not as
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 3: good this year as they were last year. It looks
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 3: like they still have one of the best players in
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 3: the league, Collier. So that's what concerns me is that
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 3: that's still pretty big to go on the road and
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 3: beat Minnesota. I was correct about Minnesota covering the game
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 3: they almost won, but then and again, Atlanta did almost
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 3: lose as a favorite, so you could argue they're going
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 3: to show up with more focus here. Dallas did win
• 1:39:06
  Speaker 3: their first game. This is why Dallas is so hyped
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 3: because they just went into Indiana and they pulled off
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: the upset and they beat Caitlyn Clark and company. But
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 3: I did tell you that I thought Indiana might struggle
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 3: a little bit early on because they need to just
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 3: get their chemistry back after Clark and Cunningham missed a
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 3: huge chunk at the end of the season. I think
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 3: Indiana is a pretty solid team. I think they're one
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 3: of the top maybe four or five teams in the
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: league this year. But big upset for Dallas. Now they're
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 3: returning home over that. I do think it is a
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 3: little bit of a letdown spot for Dallas as well.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 3: So I like Atlanta in that game. It doesn't make
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: my card, but I would lean Atlanta Minnesota at Phoenix.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 3: Both of these teams are coming off well, interesting games,
• 1:39:47
  Speaker 3: I guess, I don't know. I don't know how I
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 3: was gonna word that Phoenix had a huge blowout win
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 3: which was one of our winners on the show against Vegas,
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 3: then they had a huge letdown. I wish I added
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: that to my card. Out pretty strongly about Golden State there,
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 3: and we went with Vegas that dan and we did
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 3: get a win with that one, but we could be
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 3: three and oh instead of two and oh. In the
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 3: WNBA so far, I liked Golden State. It was a
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 3: letdown spot for Phoenix. They got kind of wrecked in
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 3: the game. They lost by sixteen. Now they're back at home.
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 3: This is their home opener, so I think it's a
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: decent spot for Phoenix, a bounce back after an ugly loss.
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 3: But they are returning over from a road trip. And
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 3: you know, I don't like the road trip return spots.
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 3: But in the WNBA, a lot of the road trips
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 3: are quicker like this is only and I'm not sure
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 3: that a lot a lot of them have families, if
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. I don't want to get
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 3: nuked or anything here, but I think the road trip
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 3: return spot is a little bit less bad. In the WNBA,
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 3: they were in Vegas and Golden State, so it's not
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 3: really a huge trip to go back to Phoenix. Now Minnesota,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 3: though Minnesota is going to have this game circle though
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 3: Minnesota did just play a tough game. They almost pulled
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: off the upset against Atlanta, So normally I would say, yeah,
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: team coming off an old upset facing a team that
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 3: just got destroyed and it was because they were in
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 3: a bad spot. I would look to play on that
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 3: team that got destroyed, which is Phoenix. But the reason
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 3: why I am not going to do that is because
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 3: this is a huge revenge game from Minnesota. Because you
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 3: remember who ended your season, and for Minnesota, that was Phoenix.
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 3: Minnesota took a one to zero lead in the series
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: in the semi finals last year, and then what did
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 3: they do. They proceeded to lose the next game in
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 3: overtime and then lose the next three games, lose the
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 3: series and get knocked out. And Minnesota was one of
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 3: the best teams in the league. A lot of people
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 3: were picking Minnesota to win the whole thing. I took
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 3: Vegas because I faded the public a little bit. There
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 3: had that right in my bracket, but I did have
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 3: Minnesota winning against Phoenix and getting to the championship round.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 3: That didn't happen. You know Minnesota is gonna have this circle. Man.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 3: Minnesota was favored in that series against Phoenix. They lost
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 3: the series, kind of ridiculous. They weren't even able to
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 3: send it back home for a deciding Game five to
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 3: win it. So I think Minnesota is clearly gonna show
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 3: up in this game for that reason, so I'm not
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 3: gonna play the game. I think generally the situation supports Phoenix,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 3: but the revenge angle is pretty big for Minnesota. Phoenix
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 3: is a four to four and a half point favorite,
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 3: so things have changed where now the oddsmakers are telling
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 3: you Phoenix is the better of these two teams right now.
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 3: This year, I think Minnesota probably lost some of their
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 3: better players from last year, even though they still have
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 3: their best player from last year. But for me, though,
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 3: I think the revenge is pretty big. I think I
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 3: am gonna slightly lean towards Minnesota getting the points there,
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 3: Like I'm just not so sure Phoenix is that much
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 3: better than Minnesota. And it did look like Minnesota was
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 3: getting you know, it looked like Minnesota was undervalued in
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 3: that first game of the season, like I thought they
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 3: were against Atlanta and they almost won the game. So
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 3: that's what I think. And then the last game is
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 3: a very uninteresting game between New York and Portland. Portland
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 3: is one of the expansion teams. They didn't look good
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 3: in their first game. Huge underdog here in New York
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 3: is one of the best teams in the league. The
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 3: Liberty they blew out Connecticut in the first game, though
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 3: Connecticut is also one of the worst teams in the league,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 3: and then the Liberty beat a probably mediocre Washington team.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 3: So the Liberty is they've had an easy schedule to
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: start the season. But Portland is also not a good team.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 3: But the Liberty are having to travel cross country for
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 3: this that's a little bit of a concern. Generally, though,
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 3: I would say because the Liberty got taken it to
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 3: overtime by a Mystics team, it isn't really that good.
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 3: The Liberty were favored, although not by much, by five
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 3: and a half. Normally, I would say the Liberty should
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 3: be in a bounce back spot, like they should have
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 3: gotten scared by that bad performance where they almost lost
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 3: the game to an inferior team. But I don't think
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 3: they're gonna really, you know, take Portland seriously, and the
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 3: Liberty having to go on the road out to the
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 3: West coast shift time zones, you know, I talk about
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 3: how that fucks with their biological clock. Portland's still looking
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 3: for their first win as a franchise. They lost their
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 3: first game pretty ugly to Chicago. You know. With these
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 3: expansion teams, though, it's gonna take time for them to
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 3: gain chemistry, you know what I mean. So the chemistry
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 3: might get better as the season goes on, it's probably
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 3: not there yet. In the second game of the season,
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 3: although it's good that they got one game out of
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 3: the way, at the very least against an improved Chicago
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 3: team who ditched Angel Rees. Still in this game, you know,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I think I'm gonna lean slightly towards
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 3: Portland plus the points here they're a thirteen point underdog.
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 3: I don't like the biological clock set up for the
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 3: Liberty here. Eighty four percent of tickets, ninety five percent
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Portland who are staying at home,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 3: So there is a pretty big travel edge for Portland
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 3: because they're not traveling, so at least there is that.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, the Liberty might focus a little
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 3: bit more off of that bad game against Washington, but
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: maybe not. I'm gonna lean Portland slightly there. And yeah,
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 3: that's it for the WNBA, all right, NHL. I was
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 3: thinking I was going to give out a play in
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 3: the NHL and the Zigzag and the money does support it,
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 3: but the statistics don't really, so I'm gonna just stay
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 3: off the game, and that is the Buffalo Montreal game.
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 3: Montreal now leads to one because they did get the
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 3: win in the last game, and I liked Buffalo to
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 3: win that game. I don't like either of these teams, though,
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 3: man like Carolina should easily beat either one of these
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 3: teams once it gets to that series, as though Carolina
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 3: is gonna have way too much time off going into
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 3: the first game of the series. Both of these hockey
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 3: games tonat are on ESPN. By the way, now, Buffalo
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 3: has been a decent road team so they could definitely
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 3: win a road game here, and I said that in
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 3: the previous game, and I still agree because they're coming
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 3: off an ugly loss six to two and they lost
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 3: five won the game before that, so yes, based on that,
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 3: it looks like a zigzag spot. And I thought the
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 3: previous game was because Buffalo actually outplayed Montreal statistically in
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 3: that second game in Buffalo there, even though they lost
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 3: five to one, very misleading. My problem with the six
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 3: to two loss in Montreal that Mondreal did actually outplay them.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 3: Montreal had eight more shots, they dominated the faces off
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 3: sixty two point three, and they won the hit battle.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 3: I mean had a lot of penalties in the game,
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 3: but yeah, Montreal, even though a six to two game
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 3: is always going to be misleading in hockey, but Montreal
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 3: won the game statistically, and that is my concern with this. Well,
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 3: I do agree with Buffalo in this game. After two
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 3: really ugly looking losses by four goals, I still think
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 3: it is a zig zag spot for Buffalo. But I
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 3: would like it a lot better if Buffalo outstat in
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 3: Montreal again and made that game look better, you know,
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 3: like I would wish. I wish the Buffalo outplayed them
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 3: here and then the score was that misleading, but it
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 3: wasn't really. Mondreal did get a number of power play
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 3: goals here though they did have two power play goals.
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 3: Buffalo had won though so Mondreal was four to one
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 3: against them at you know, in even strength hockey, no
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 3: empty net goals in the game. So I'm gonna stay away.
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 3: I have to stay away from it. But I do
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 3: lean Buffalo. If I was gonna play any of the
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 3: hockey today, I would play Buffalo. That would be my play,
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 3: but it's not gonna be on my card. It was close,
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 3: but I'm not gonna do it. The money does agree
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 3: seemingly seventy two percent of tickets on Montreal, seventy two
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on Buffalo. You know, the public
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 3: is so recentcy biased, they're only gonna want Montreal here
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 3: after two blowout wins. Montreal's that about minus one thirty
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 3: five whatever. I would lean Buffalo money line as the
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 3: dog there, and then we have Anaheim Vegas in a
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 3: two to two series. By the way, money is indicating
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 3: on the under in Buffalo Montreal as well under six
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 3: or six and a half there. I don't have much
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 3: of a feel for that. Anaheim Vegas, the money is
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 3: indicating even strong, more strong than the under here fifty
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 3: seven percent of tickets on the over, seventy seven percent
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the under. I see the argument
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 3: for it. I don't want to do it because the
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 3: empty net goals just throw so many of these unders
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 3: into the toilet. I can't do it, man, empty net
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 3: goals are so prominent, and it's ridiculous, and it's I
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 3: think it's really it's kind of a product of, you know,
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 3: of just the analytical nature that the game is taking now,
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 3: where you know, you see like football teams going for
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 3: it on more like you know, in weird situations going
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 3: for two and more and stuff like that, and I
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 3: actually like it, and going for fourth down more. I
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 3: actually like that because the analytics like support it, but
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 3: I think the mental state of your team supports it too.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 3: But the same thing is uh the case in hockey.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 3: You see teams going into the empty net earlier and
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 3: earlier now, and it actually does make sense analytically to
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 3: do that because even though, yeah, you're obviously gonna have
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 3: a huge chance to give up another goal, but you're
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 3: not gonna win the game unless you you know, you
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 3: have almost no chance to win the game at that
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 3: point anyway, and your best chance to win is obviously
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 3: to score a goal, and you're more likely to do
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 3: that when you are going empty net. So that's why
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 3: it does make sense to still do it. That's why
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 3: more teams are doing it. That's why I worry about
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 3: the under here. Even though a to two TIEDE series
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 3: generally defense shows up. When when a series is tied
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 3: to two, usually you do get lower scoring games and unders.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 3: But you're gonna need this one to be like a
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 3: two to two game right at the end of the
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 3: game for that to really even happen. Which I don't
• 1:49:21
  Speaker 3: really want to bank on that money indicating on the
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 3: under though, fifty seven percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 3: seventy seven percent of the couch on the under. This
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 3: is in Anaheim. Vegas is what I'm talking about. The
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 3: totals at six basically across the board as far as
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 3: the side and the money is indicating on Anaheim, I'm
• 1:49:38
  Speaker 3: not so sure about that. Vegas is back at home
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 3: eighty four percent of tickets, seventy eight percent of the
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 3: cash on Vegas. And while I know these teams are
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 3: pretty close geographically, Vegas is around the same type of
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 3: favorite they were in the first couple of games, around
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 3: minus one fifty or so. It could be a bounce
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 3: back for Vegas here though. Uh I thought this would
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 3: be a bit of a home centric series because both
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 3: teams have significantly better home records than road records this season,
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 3: Anaheim in Vegas below five hundred on the road, although
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 3: if you include the overtime losses, Vegas is as well.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 3: But I think Vegas, yeah, of course, is better at
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 3: home than they are on the road. Anaheim is worse
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 3: on the road than they are at home. Vegas did
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 3: lose the last game this series has been back and forth,
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 3: each team winning them losing, so it's the whole series
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 3: is zigzag so far, so if that continues, that would
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 3: mean that Vegas would win this game. They did win
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 3: one game and lose one game at home so far.
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 3: I think Vegas is the better team and I did
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 3: pick them to win this series, although against Edmonton, which
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 3: was probably stupid. But Edmonton is just a bad defensive team, man.
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 3: Even though Edmonton is the more experienced team, Neither of
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 3: these teams are very experienced. Vegas and Anaheim. Vegas hasn't
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 3: had that much experience with their current coach, but both
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 3: these coaches have actually won Stanley Copps. Don't remind me Quennville,
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 3: but I believe Tortorella also has won a Stanley Cup
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 3: before as well, So yeah, I don't know, man, so
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 3: but Vegas has an experienced edge playing wise though in
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 3: this series, like they do have a lot of players
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 3: that have played in playoff scenarios before, wheres Anaheim doesn't
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 3: have as many. So yeah, I would lean to Vegas,
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 3: but it's not a strong opinion for me, And of
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 3: course I did pick them to win the conference in
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 3: my bracket, and then we have one NBA game here.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 3: By the way, Oklahoma City did dispatch the Lakers last night,
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 3: while Cleveland continued to be really good at home and
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 3: even up the series there Lakers. They didn't play Luca
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 3: in the game. Yeah, the Lakers had chances to win
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 3: that game, but yeah, I mean I watched the end
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 3: of it. I was rooting against the Lakers because I
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 3: hate the Lakers as a Celtic fan in I do
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 3: not like Lebron, you know. But yes, it was it
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 3: was enjoyable to watch them go away. I'm not gonna lie.
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 3: Okay See is gonna have way too much time off
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 3: before the next series though, And yeah, I mean, we'll
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 3: talk about it if it gets to it. But if
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 3: okay See draws san Antonio, everybody's gonna talk about how
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 3: San Antonio destroyed Oklahoma City during the regular season. And
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 3: I think that Oklahoma City is still gonna beat them
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 3: if they wind up having to play them in the playoffs.
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 3: I think experience is gonna loom large. Speaking of experience, though,
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 3: we have Minnesota playing against San Antonio tonight in Minnesota
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 3: is the more experienced of these teams here. Minnesota was
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 3: able to even up the series beating san Antonio, but
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 3: it was of course misleading because Wemby, you know, got
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 3: thrown out of the game and it was you know,
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, it was the right call, the ejection. I mean,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 3: it was a double flagrant or whatever it was. He
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 3: you know, it wasn't even an accident, like he just
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 3: he intentionally elbowed who the fuck was? Why don't even
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 3: nas read is who it was? He just dude, he
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 3: just intentionally elbowed him. Like yeah, I mean, you're not
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 3: gonna get away with that. It was it was the
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 3: correct call, I think, but that obviously through the game
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 3: in favor of Minnesota. You know, with Wemby not on
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 3: the court, Minnesota obviously was helped out by that, and
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 3: they wound up winning the game by five. But if
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 3: you dig into this, you know Minnesota won the rebounding battle.
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 3: Of course, some of that was because Wemby was out,
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 3: but Minnesota played a decent game here. The one outlier, though,
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 3: was that san Antonio shot really badly from three point
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 3: range twenty three percent from three, So you do expect
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 3: that to be better coming into this game. San Antonio
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 3: is still the better team here. Wemby is going to
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 3: be back he's not suspended, so he is playing in
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 3: this game tonight. San Antonio is a double digit favorite
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 3: here for a reason. And you know, I don't know
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 3: if the public might be slightly kind of leaning towards
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 3: Minnesota now that this has looked like a competitive series.
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 3: Oh it's two two and I'm getting like double digits
• 1:53:54
  Speaker 3: with Minnesota. Yeah, I don't know about that. San Antonio
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 3: is fifty five percent take it, sixty four percent of
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 3: the cash on them. San Antonio won one of the
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 3: home games the last time they were at only won
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 3: by forty points or whatever. The first game they lost outright, though,
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 3: san Antonio is a nine and a half favorite. Now
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 3: at a lot of books you can get a little
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 3: bit of a better number on this. Most of the
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 3: online shops have it at ten ten and a half though,
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 3: which is weird because it looks like the Vegas casinos
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 3: are mostly at nine to nine and at nine and
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 3: a half, excuse me, which is interesting. I think those
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 3: are kind of the more public books though. In general,
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 3: though I don't know Circa. I'm not so sure. I
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 3: thought the Circa was considered to be more Maybe I
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 3: have to look it up. If the circu is considered
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 3: to be more of a sharp ish book. Maybe they're not.
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 3: I don't, I forget, but anyway, san Antonio looks like
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 3: they are getting the money. I'm gonna lean that way.
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna play it, but I think the outlier
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 3: was that san Antonio didn't shoot well from three, and
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 3: then of course Wemby not playing totally through that game
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 3: into flux. But of course Minnesota should have won the
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 3: previous game though when we lost our play on Minnesota.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 3: Minnesota actually I out played san Antonio. Wemby did play
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 3: in that game, So do it that information what you want.
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 3: And then yes, of course we have the Battle of
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 3: the Frenchmen in this series, which I forgot about. Go
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 3: Bear against wem Benyama there anyway, Yeah, san Antonio is
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 3: likely to still win this series. A lot of times
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 3: in a two two series, the home team does pretty
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 3: well because they know they have to show up, and
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 3: they do show up as the better team, they play well.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 3: I'd probably lay it with san Antonio. The totals around
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 3: the same as it was in the previous game. I
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 3: don't really have a good feel for the total, which
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 3: is uh, the money's coming in towards the over a
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 3: little bit. It looks like the total has gone up
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 3: a little bit from two seventeen and a half to
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 3: eighteen to eighteen and a half. I'm not sure I
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 3: agree with that, because the previous game was a little
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 3: bit higher scoring, but you know that was because of
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 3: wem Benyama's absence. The game did go over the total,
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure, But with Wemby not there, like you
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 3: would think that that means, oh my god, that the
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 3: total should be lower. But that's not the case. Because
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 3: Wemby is such a dominant defensive player. With him on
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 3: the court, I think the game is more likely to
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 3: go under. But the thing that would kind of have
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 3: me shying away from that is that Minnesota wants to
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 3: play an under stylid game. San Antonio does not want to.
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 3: San Antonio kind of wants to up the pace here
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 3: and throw the Minnesota out of their game. I think
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 3: san Antonio benefits from a faster paced game here, So
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 3: if they're gonna cover, I think that might be a
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 3: little bit correlated to an over That is the case
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 3: throughout this entire series. Anyway, that's gonna do it all
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 3: that and two hour show for one play. There you
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 3: go my one play being really selective here today is
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 3: the Saint Louis Cardinals split bet run line money line.
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 3: If you want to just go money line, I'm not
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 3: gonna say not to do that. So that's gonna do it.
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 3: Let's hope we continue the heater here with this one.
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 3: Let's hope to go one to zero again today. Learn
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 3: a toad on Twitter, Learn a toad on Instagram. Check
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 3: it all out, like subscribe to here. We did get
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 3: a few new subscribers, so let's keep it coming in.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 3: Let's go. I appreciate it, man, bring all the newcomers in. Dude,
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 3: I think, like, is anybody out there giving out all
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 3: this information for free? And this hot seventy thirty four
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 3: and five the last thirty eight days. Come on, man,
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 3: I'm giving it out for free. I shouldn't be. That's
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 3: why I should go to my Patreon patroon dot com
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 3: and you can just throw me some support, as dirty
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 3: Sock says, just to give me a little something back
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 3: for giving you all this information. Why not, man, because
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 3: I think I should get paid for it, which I should.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 3: That means I should be back to my full scale betting. Man.
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 3: I've just been worried to do it. I used to
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 3: do it because I was backing it with the money
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 3: that I was making at my jobs, and now that
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 3: I don't have that, it's like, I don't know. I
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 3: worry that I have no security blanket here, but I
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 3: should be doing it. I bet some of the plays
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 3: that I've given out of the show, but not every
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 3: single one of them. And if I bet every single
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 3: one of them, I would be up big, bigly, as
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 3: Scott Adams would say. Rip. Anyway, this show is all
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 3: on the audio listen over there Apples, Spotify, Spreaker. That
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 3: all helps me out. Covered in You because my yuke
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 3: channel on YouTube, I've been uploading some new stuff there
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 3: as well. Tribute for Weezer's Blue Album anniversary the other day.
• 1:58:12
  Speaker 3: Did the song It's the most Fun to play on
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 3: from that album, which people might not remember that song,
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 3: but the Weezer fans know it. So I did that one.
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 3: Then you can go check it out and you'll see
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 3: what song it was. Loser cast will me back tonight
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 3: as well. I'm not sure who I'm actually picking for
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 3: my loser tonight. I have a few different options. Check
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 3: that out tonight and you'll find out who I pick
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 3: is my loser tonight That'll be at ten PM, and
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 3: then the Giants G Spot podcast. I don't know when
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 3: that's actually happening, but you know it'll be going more
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 3: full throttle during the actual NFL season. But we will
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 3: do a draft recap I think at some point. And
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 3: speaking of football, I know I haven't done it yet.
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 3: I was thinking about doing it yesterday the Season Win
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 3: Total Show, but what I realized is that there's this
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 3: big event for the schedule release for the NHL, I
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 3: believe Thursday this week. So I'm waiting until that, and
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 3: then we know who the team's opponents are gonna be.
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 3: That's already set, but we don't know which weeks the
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 3: games are gonna be played and or on. So oh no,
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 3: I'm finishing a sentence with a preposition. Oh god, Tom
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 3: Woods is gonna come after me for that. He hates
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 3: that anyway. Yeah, but I'll wait until that happens, and
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 3: then I will do my Season Win Total show. I
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 3: have I think three pretty strong season win Total angles
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 3: to give out. Didn't actually make them plays last year.
• 1:59:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know if we're gonna make them official plays
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 3: on the show, but all three of them won last
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 3: year that I gave out, so be on the lookout
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 3: for that. Still subscribe to the channel and you'll get
• 1:59:41
  Speaker 3: notified when it happens. That's gonna do it. I appreciate everybody. Peace,
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 3: Happy Tuesday. But don't you go quiet. Don't you played
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 3: from the flow.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: Your name still means something new. Somebody for show. Put
• 1:59:56
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 2: No, hold on, hold on.
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 3: Nothing nice.
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 2: Now, hold on, hold on. Let me for you the
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 2: lock by Hord.
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 3: But it don't get the crown.
• 2:00:28
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on and stay with me now