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Market Pulse: Weekly Review · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Hey there , Spy Traders !
• 0:02
  Cashflow Charlie here , and it's 6 am on Saturday , June 21st , 2025 , Pacific Time .
• 0:09
  What a week it's been in the markets , folks !
• 0:12
  We've navigated everything from geopolitical fireworks to the Federal Reserve's latest pronouncements .
• 0:18
  So grab your favorite morning beverage , because we're about to break down all the action from the past few days .
• 0:24
  Let's dive right into the market performance .
• 0:28
  This past week , ending June 20th , saw a bit of a mixed bag .
• 0:32
  The Morningstar US Market Index slipped slightly , down 0.07% .
• 0:39
  The S&P 500 , our trusty benchmark , edged down 0.15% , marking its second week of modest losses , closing at 5,967.84 on Wednesday and falling again on Thursday .
• 0:55
  The Nasdaq Composite , however , managed a small gain of 0.21% for the week , despite a dip on Thursday .
• 1:03
  And our old friend , the Dow Jones Industrial Average , just barely budged , inching up 0.1% for the week .
• 1:10
  So , pretty much treading water , wouldn't you say ?
• 1:13
  Now , looking at specific sectors , Financial Services had a great run , up 0.89% , with Energy right behind , gaining 0.87% .
• 1:25
  On the flip side , Healthcare was the weakest , dropping 2.43% , and Basic Materials also struggled , down 1.33% .
• 1:34
  Interestingly , largecap stocks saw a small loss , while midcap and smallcap stocks actually gained , and growth stocks performed better than value or blend .
• 1:44
  On the macroeconomic front , geopolitical tensions , especially the IsraelIran conflict , kept us on our toes .
• 1:52
  Early in the week , stocks dipped as oil prices surged due to supply concerns , but then bounced back a bit when talks of negotiations emerged .
• 2:02
  By Thursday , President Trump's comment about a twoweek window for a decision on military involvement helped oil prices retreat .
• 2:10
  This situation is definitely a big influencer .
• 2:14
  Then we had the Federal Reserve .
• 2:17
  Their June 2025 FOMC meeting wrapped up on June 18th , and as widely expected , they kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth meeting in a row .
• 2:32
  They acknowledged solid economic expansion , a low unemployment rate , and a healthy labor market , but noted that inflation remains ' somewhat elevated ' .
• 2:43
  The Fed actually revised down its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and bumped up its core inflation forecast to 3.1% .
• 2:54
  However , the ' dot plot ' still pointed to two quarterpoint rate cuts in 2025 .
• 3:01
  Fed Chair Powell highlighted continued growth but also elevated uncertainty .
• 3:07
  Speaking of data , the May 2025 CPI came in at 2.4% annually , slightly up from April but below forecasts , thanks in part to a 12% yearoveryear drop in gasoline prices .
• 3:21
  The May jobs report showed 139,000 nonfarm payrolls added , just above expectations , with unemployment holding at 4.2% .
• 3:33
  But , watch out for those revisions , folks , as March and April job gains were actually reduced by 95,000 , hinting at a potential cooldown in the labor market .
• 3:43
  Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% yearoveryear .
• 3:47
  Other indicators like retail sales , industrial production , and homebuilder confidence all came in weaker than expected on Monday , and the New York Fed Manufacturing Index declined for the fourth month in a row .
• 4:01
  And let's not forget tariffs .
• 4:03
  The 2025 tariffs are estimated to raise overall prices by 1.5% in the short run and could cut real GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points this year .
• 4:15
  They might also increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points and reduce payroll employment by 394,000 by yearend .
• 4:24
  This is a big deal , especially with May's manufacturing employment showing weakness partly due to these trade tensions .
• 4:31
  Now for some companyspecific news .
• 4:34
  Kroger surged almost 10% on Thursday after beating profit estimates and raising its fullyear revenue forecast .
• 4:42
  CarMax also climbed 6.6% on Thursday , beating profit expectations on higher used auto sales .
• 4:49
  Advanced Micro Devices , AMD , jumped nearly 9% last Sunday after analyst upgrades .
• 4:57
  Meta Platforms rose 3% last Sunday on news of paid advertising for WhatsApp .
• 5:04
  Apple , defying the trend , rose more than 2% on Thursday , and Coinbase also saw a nice 4% gain on Thursday .
• 5:12
  But it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows .
• 5:14
  Solar stocks really took a hit on Monday , with Enphase Energy plunging 24% , First Solar down 18% , SunRun plummeting a massive 40% , and SolarEdge Technologies sliding 33% .
• 5:29
  Ouch !
• 5:30
  Lennar shares fell 4% on Monday after their profit missed estimates .
• 5:35
  And Sarepta Therapeutics dropped a whopping 45% last Sunday , hitting a nearly decadelow , due to concerns about a possible serious side effect with their Elevidys treatment , including a reported death .
• 5:49
  Accenture also fell on Thursday as their quarterly bookings missed analyst estimates .
• 5:54
  So , what does all this mean for us , Spy Traders ?
• 5:58
  The past few days show a truly complex market .
• 6:02
  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a major wild card , directly hitting energy prices and broader market mood .
• 6:10
  The Fed's decision to hold rates steady , alongside a more cautious economic outlook , tells us they're still walking a tightrope : inflation is stubborn , even with signs of a cooling labor market .
• 6:22
  That May jobs report , with its downward revisions , really highlights this cooling trend .
• 6:29
  The slight uptick in CPI and the Fed's higher inflation forecast underline that price pressures are still very much a concern , made worse by ongoing tariffs .
• 6:40
  The mixed performance across major indices , with the S&P 500 slightly down but Nasdaq and Dow holding relatively flat , suggests a market trying to figure out these conflicting signals .
• 6:54
  Sector performance showed a clear rotation : Financial Services and Energy benefiting , possibly from rates and oil volatility respectively , while Healthcare and Basic Materials struggled .
• 7:06
  And , of course , individual company news , whether it's strong earnings like Kroger or CarMax , or serious operational issues like those seen with Sarepta and the solar industry , continues to drive big stock movements .
• 7:21
  We're definitely in a ' waitandsee ' mode , balancing resilient economic activity against inflation , tariffs , and a super fluid global landscape .
• 7:31
  Alright , Cashflow Charlie's top recommendations for navigating these waters : First , Stay Diversified and Defensive .
• 7:39
  With all this uncertainty and mixed economic signals , don't put all your eggs in one basket .
• 7:45
  Maintaining a diversified portfolio is key .
• 7:49
  While Healthcare surprisingly underperformed recently , defensive sectors like consumer staples or utilities might be worth a look if volatility sticks around .
• 8:00
  Healthcare might even present a potential entry point if its fundamentals hold strong after that recent dip .
• 8:06
  Second , Monitor Geopolitical Developments Closely .
• 8:10
  The IsraelIran conflict is a huge unknown .
• 8:13
  Keep a very close eye on any escalations or deescalations .
• 8:18
  This will continue to directly impact oil prices and overall market sentiment , making the Energy sector particularly sensitive .
• 8:27
  Third , Evaluate Interest Rate Sensitivity .
• 8:30
  The Fed held rates , but their projections still hint at future cuts .
• 8:35
  Financials might continue to do well if rates stay a bit higher for longer , or if economic resilience supports loan growth .
• 8:44
  On the flip side , interestrate sensitive sectors , like real estate , could face ongoing pressure if borrowing costs remain elevated .
• 8:52
  Fourth , Focus on Company Fundamentals .
• 8:55
  With tariffs and inflation impacting corporate outlooks , it's more critical than ever to dig deep into individual company earnings and their future guidance .
• 9:05
  Kroger and CarMax showed us that strong individual performance can still lead to big gains , even in a tough market .
• 9:13
  But remember , companies with specific product or operational issues , like Sarepta , can see very sharp declines .
• 9:20
  Finally , Be Cautious on Highly Valued Growth Stocks , but also Consider Value Opportunities .
• 9:25
  While the Nasdaq has been resilient , and some tech giants are still flying high , the broader tech and growth sector might face more scrutiny if inflation or slower growth fears intensify .
• 9:36
  However , companies showing strong innovation , especially in AI like AMD , still attract investor interest .
• 9:45
  And with the overall US stock market trading at only about a 3% discount to fair value , opportunities in valueoriented investments , or in sectors that have lagged but have strong longterm fundamentals , like possibly healthcare after its recent drop , might be emerging .
• 10:01
  So , Spy Traders , stay agile , prioritize your fundamental analysis , and keep that portfolio diversified .
• 10:09
  That's it for this edition of Spy Trader .
• 10:11
  Until next time , keep those charts green !