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Can SpaceX Starship launch to Mars in 2026? · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk
• 0:04
  Podcast. This is a show where we discuss
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  the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The
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  Boring Company, and Neurolink. I'm your host, Will Walden.
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  SpaceX has begun turning Starship into a fully
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  operational launch system. A Flight 9 reused the Super
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  Heavy booster for the first time, tested a redesigned
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  staging system, and pushed forward with in space payload
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  deployment. A Flight 10 validated many of
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  those upgrades with a successful mission that returned precise
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  flight data and proved critical improvements to guidance, re
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  entry protection and engine relay capabilities.
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  But even with that momentum, failures in Flight 9 exposed
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  structural weaknesses that had to be solved fast.
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  Now, can Starship become a reliable, reusable platform for
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  lunar and Mars missions without more setbacks?
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  SpaceX reused Booster 14 for Flight 9 in May of 2025, and the
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  booster launched cleanly, with all 33 Raptor 2 engines
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  performing normally. A number of those engines had
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  already flown, and SpaceX proved they could operate safely again
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  after refurbishment. The mission also trialled A
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  modified hot staging system. Engineers altered the venting
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  system to steer the separation plume more effectively, reducing
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  instability and pressure spikes during stage separation.
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  That change improved control during one of the most
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  vulnerable phases of flight, and the payload section carried an
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  experimental Starlink deployment system.
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  The ship's guidance system received a complete overhaul to
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  sharpen targeting precisions and the new deployment mechanism and
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  a carousel like ejection approach to it.
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  On paper, the upgrades positioned Flight 9 is the
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  strongest proof that Starship could transition from testing
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  into regular missions. But cracks emerged fast as Ship
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  35 accelerated toward orbital velocity.
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  Onboard data showed a methane leak inside the main tank Dome.
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  That slow leak reduced internal pressure, degraded control
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  authority and made it impossible for the ship to maintain
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  orientation. Without stable altitude and
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  attitude, the spacecraft lost control and broke apart on re
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  entry. The booster faced its own
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  critical failure during the final descent.
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  High aerodynamic forces damaged part of the fuel transfer system
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  and the booster exploded before completing its landing,
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  destroying post flight data that would have informed
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  refurbishment efforts. Postmortem reviews revealed that
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  structural stress points in the boosters fuel lines they weren't
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  strong enough for high speed re entry forces.
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  SpaceX responded by reinforcing the plumbing with additional
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  material along high load zones. Engineers also redesigned the
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  tank Dome welds, added new leak detection sensors and updated
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  the ejection hardware to fix the jam Starlink Bay.
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  The changes were ready in time for Flight 10.
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  Now, three months later, ship 37 launched and landed in the ocean
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  just three meters off target. That pinpoint accuracy showed
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  clear improvement in the control software and grid fin handling.
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  Engineers stripped heat shield tiles from one segment of the
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  ship on purpose to test how well the backup thermal systems would
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  hold up. The ship survived re entry
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  despite the induced damage. Now this success proved the
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  Starship's redundancy plan for heat shielding could work under
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  actual stress and the mission also included the 1st in flight
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  space Raptor relight. That test matters because
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  Starship must relight its engines mid flight to make
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  course corrections during deep space missions, and this relight
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  worked. The success, along with improved
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  engine out handling on the booster, showed that Starship
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  can still land safely even if one or more engines have failed.
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  Flight 10 became the first mission to deploy test payloads
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  for Starship successfully. The updated deployment system
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  worked as designed, pushing out eight Starlink simulators during
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  orbit. Onboard sensors sent back real
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  time readings on heat exposure, vibration and hull flex, giving
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  engineers the data they need to tweak thermal shielding and
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  structural fashion for future flights.
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  Flight 11 will mark the last use of the current Block 2 vehicle
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  and aims to close out splash down tests for heat shield
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  segments and upgraded grid fins. This version includes better
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  handling for ocean recovery and new software tuned for
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  predicting wave impact stress. The team wants high fidelity
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  recovery data before moving on to land based catch attempts.
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  Now Flight 12 is important. It begins the Block 3 era of
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  Starship. This version includes the Raptor
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  3 engine, which provides 20% more thrust, simplified
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  construction, and fewer external components which reduce weight
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  and improved reliability. SpaceX integrated the hot
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  staging ring into the ship's lower Dome to eliminate excess
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  mass, and the new grid fin arrangement allows for more
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  precise directional control during descent and the payload
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  limit jumps to 140 metric tons. These ships are built for fast
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  turn around and minimal post flight maintenance.
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  Now let's move on to flights 13 through 15.
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  They're expected to showcase full reusability with recovery
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  of both the booster in the ship via the Meccazilla catching
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  system. That goal depends on the flight
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  history of Block 3 hardware, of course.
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  Engineers are testing new metallic heat shield tiles with
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  embedded coiling channels that use methane to absorb heat
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  during reentry, and these active tiles are designed for fast
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  inspection and replacement, supporting A cadence near weekly
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  launches once reliability is proven.
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  Star Base and Kennedy Space Center have already upgraded
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  infrastructure to support up to 50 landings per year.
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  This high frequency will shorten the learning cycle and create
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  more consistent engineering feedback for SpaceX.
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  It also reduces the time between major system upgrades, which
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  will help SpaceX move faster towards stable operations.
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  These upcoming flights will also test the hardware and software
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  needed for in orbit refueling. Specialized tanker versions of
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  Starship will attempt cryogenic fuel transfer in orbital
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  docking. The vehicles are receiving new
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  insulation systems and revised plumbing designed to prevent
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  boil off during long stays in orbit.
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  Software for automated rendezvous and docking is being
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  adapted from Crew Dragons flight code, both modifications for
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  Starships larger size and higher volume fuel.
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  NASA's Artemis lunar program depends on Starship's ability to
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  refuel an urban. Without that capability,
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  Starship cannot deliver cargo to the moon or return after
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  landing. The tests over the next few
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  flights will determine whether this part of the system will be
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  ready in time for a 2027 crude landing.
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  Raptor 3 engines are a huge performance boost since the
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  beginning of this program. These engines operate at 350 bar
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  chamber pressure and exceed A thrust to weight ratio of 180.
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  They're designed to be refurbished in less than 30
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  days, which supports the kind of rapid reuse the SpaceX needs to
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  compete with expandable rockets on cost and on volume.
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  Now, engineers are also moving away from relying solely on
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  ceramic heat shield tiles. The new designs use hexagonal
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  patterns with stronger attachment brackets, backup a
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  blade of layers beneath each tile, and active cooling in
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  critical zones. These changes reduce the risk of
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  full system loss from a single tile detachment.
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  And SpaceX wants Starship to reach operational status by
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  2026. They want to set it to Mars.
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  That means refueling tests, successful catch landings, and
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  high frequency reuse all need to happen in the next 5 flights.
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  So if Flight 11 goes well all the way through Flight 15, and
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  they can validate every single one of those systems as 100%
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  successful, SpaceX will have turned Starship from an
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  experimental platform into a reusable spacecraft with real
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  deep space potential. And they might just hit their
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  mark of going to Mars by the end of 2026.
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  Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
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  I really do appreciate your support.
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  If you could take a second and hit the subscribe or the follow
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  on right now, I greatly appreciate it.
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  It helps out the show tremendously and you'll never
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  miss an episode. And each episode is about 10
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  to patreon.com/stagezero and please take care of yourselves
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  and each other and I'll see you tomorrow.