Latest / Wages and Prices with Fexingo: Cost of Living, Pay Raises, and Workers' Purchasing Power / How Your Raise Is Finally Beating the Cost of a Wedding
Transcript
- Lucas: So Luna, I was looking at the average cost of a wedding in the US — it's about $33,000, according to The Knot's 2025 data. And for years, that number has been growing faster than wages. But something interesting is happening in the latest numbers. Luna: I've heard that weddings are one of those expenses that just seem to balloon no matter what. So what's changed? Lucas: Well, average hourly earnings are now at $37.50 as of May, up about 2.9 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index — that's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is running at about 2.4 percent. But wedding costs have actually been decelerating. The Knot reported that the average spend in 2025 was up only 2.1 percent from the prior year, which is the smallest increase since they started tracking it. Luna: So wages are finally outpacing wedding inflation. That's a big deal for anyone planning a ceremony. Lucas: Exactly. And it's not just the average. If you look at the lower end — say, the 25th percentile of wedding spending — that number actually declined slightly in 2025, to around $12,000. That's partly driven by the rise of micro-weddings and elopements, which surged during the pandemic and have stuck around. Luna: I've seen that trend too. A lot of couples are opting for smaller guest lists and more intimate venues. It's almost like the industry is being forced to adapt to what people can actually afford. Lucas: Right. And the data backs that up. The Knot says the average guest count in 2025 was 105, down from 131 in 2019. That's a 20 percent drop. And when you have fewer guests, you spend less on catering, rentals, and favours. Luna: But is that purely a wage story, or are there other factors? I mean, the overall inflation environment has cooled a bit. The CPI is up 3.2 percent year-over-year in May, but core CPI is only 2.8 percent. That's still above the Fed's target, but it's way down from the peaks of 2022. Lucas: Right. So part of it is just that the broader inflation spike is fading. But I think the wage angle is the key point for our listeners. Because for the first time in about four years, the average raise — roughly 3 percent — is actually exceeding the increase in wedding costs. That's a real win for purchasing power in this specific category. Luna: And it's not just the ceremony. What about the honeymoon? That's another big expense. Lucas: Great question. Airfare and hotel costs are still running a bit hot — airline fares were up 3.5 percent year-over-year in May. But again, wage growth is keeping pace. So if you're budgeting for a wedding and a honeymoon, your raise is finally making a dent. Luna: Let's talk about the labor market context too. We've seen headlines about factory job cuts nearing financial crisis levels, but also that Nevada is a hot spot for hiring. How does that affect the wedding industry? Lucas: Nevada's job market is booming partly because of hospitality and tourism — and Las Vegas is a major wedding destination. So if you're a wedding planner, photographer, or florist in Nevada, you're likely seeing strong demand and maybe even higher wages. That's a positive feedback loop. Luna: But on the flip side, factory job cuts could mean less disposable income for families in manufacturing-heavy regions. So not every couple is feeling the wage boost equally. Lucas: No question. The national averages hide a lot of variation. But the trend is real: on aggregate, wages are finally catching up to wedding costs. And I think that's a story worth celebrating. Luna: Honestly, if today's episode made something click about your own budget or career prospects, we'd love it if you considered supporting the show. It's ad-free, and listener support keeps it that way. Lucas: Yeah, if it was worth a coffee to you, that link is buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. No pressure, truly. Just a way to keep this independent. Luna: And we really appreciate it. Now, back to weddings — one thing I'm curious about is whether the shift to smaller weddings is permanent. Lucas: I think so. The pandemic changed consumer preferences in a lasting way. People realized they didn't need to invite 200 people to have a meaningful ceremony. And when you combine that with wage growth that's finally outpacing costs, you get a real shift in affordability. Luna: So what's the one takeaway you want listeners to remember from this episode? Lucas: That your raise is finally beating the cost of a wedding. For the first time in years, if you're planning to tie the knot, your paycheck is actually catching up. It's a small but meaningful victory in the broader wage versus price story.