Latest / Merryn Talks Money / UK Wage Inflation, American Euphoria and The Investment Trust Invasion

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UK Wage Inflation, American Euphoria and The Investment Trust Invasion · Merryn Talks Money

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Marin
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Speaker 1: Talks Money Weekly round up, our debrief on the biggest
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Speaker 1: stories and markets and economics. I'm Merrin some Step, web
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Speaker 1: editor at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth, and.
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Speaker 2: I'm joined Stoics Report of the North out of the
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Speaker 2: Money Distilled newsletter.
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Speaker 1: We are so there, aren't We were so professional now
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Speaker 1: fatally ourselves without needing a single prompt. It's amazing. Now listen,
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Speaker 1: john this is our last one of the year. Happy
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Speaker 1: Christmas everyone, by the way, And there are three things
0:46
Speaker 1: we want to talk about, and we don't want to
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Speaker 1: waste anyone's time or drag it out because I know
0:50
Speaker 1: that you have I don't know, putting super boos in
0:53
Speaker 1: and trees to vanished decorating parties to organize that kind
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Speaker 1: of thing. So we're going to do this fast. First
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Speaker 1: thing we want to talk about is this acceleration in
1:01
Speaker 1: UK wage growd. It's fantastic news for everyone, anyone who's
1:04
Speaker 1: getting a rise in their real wages. Finally, everyone, this
1:08
Speaker 1: is good news. But Johnny comes with the downside, right.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, So wages went up five point two percent year
1:14
Speaker 2: round year, which is the first time that it's accelerated
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Speaker 2: in over a year. It was much more than the
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Speaker 2: market had expected. It was much more in the Bank
1:21
Speaker 2: of England had expected. And as good news as you say,
1:24
Speaker 2: because it means that in real terms wages are rising
1:27
Speaker 2: it three percent a year, which is all good. Obviously,
1:31
Speaker 2: the labor market data is kind of ropey at the moment,
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Speaker 2: and I think that if you were to take the
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Speaker 2: temperature psychologically, I'm not sure that people feel that it's
1:39
Speaker 2: a strong labor market. But whatever these are the figures
1:42
Speaker 2: here we go.
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Speaker 1: Well, still eight hundred thousand vacancies out there, right.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the vacancy's data I think has been
1:49
Speaker 2: honestly screwed up by the existence of things like LinkedIn
1:52
Speaker 2: and all the rest of it. I mean, I think
1:53
Speaker 2: lots of vacancies go on line and never ever come
1:56
Speaker 2: off a line again. Right. You know, if you look
1:58
Speaker 2: at what the recruiters have been saying since basically the bubble,
2:02
Speaker 2: the lockdown bubble point, and they can post lockdown bubble,
2:05
Speaker 2: they've all been issuing profit one after profit one for
2:08
Speaker 2: about eighteen months, maybe even two years now, so it's
2:12
Speaker 2: a weird one. May so that those are the figures.
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Speaker 2: And what was really quite interesting was the reaction of
2:18
Speaker 2: the bond market because basically investors now went from pricing
2:24
Speaker 2: in three interest rate cuts next year. Bear in mind,
2:28
Speaker 2: whenever we started this year, everywhere thought of the market
2:32
Speaker 2: thought that the Bank of England rate was going to
2:34
Speaker 2: be below four percent by this point, and it's still
2:38
Speaker 2: up at four and three quarter percent. And now they've
2:41
Speaker 2: started expecting the interest rates are actually not going to
2:43
Speaker 2: be cut back much at all next year, basically because
2:47
Speaker 2: they feel that inflation is kind of out of control,
2:50
Speaker 2: or not out of control, but higher than expected.
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Speaker 1: And as a result, on the Tile and John, you know,
2:56
Speaker 1: you know how we were going to have a section
2:58
Speaker 1: of this podcast and it was going to be called
3:00
Speaker 1: I Told you so, Oh, we told you so. Yeah,
3:03
Speaker 1: if we had decided to go ahead with that probably
3:07
Speaker 1: terrible idea, we could do an entire podcast now on inflation,
3:10
Speaker 1: interest rates.
3:11
Speaker 2: Can we? We could?
3:12
Speaker 1: We could just got a regular everybody we told you so.
3:18
Speaker 2: The guilt market reaction yesterday, boy was quite spiky, and
3:22
Speaker 2: I did think to myself, that seems a bit extreme.
3:26
Speaker 2: And so do we chart with Marcus, a regular guest
3:29
Speaker 2: who's the kind of former Bord Market guy, and he
3:31
Speaker 2: pointed there was another big legal decision yesterday. So Guy
3:36
Speaker 2: Hansy's investment vehicle had been basically involved in this legal
3:42
Speaker 2: case with the Defense Ministry. The Defense Ministry in nineteen
3:46
Speaker 2: ninety six sold the load of houses to a private
3:49
Speaker 2: company and rented them back and what turned out to
3:52
Speaker 2: be a very bad deal. I remember this, Yeah, and
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Speaker 2: by this point, Guy Hansy's group owns them. Basically, the
3:58
Speaker 2: Defense Ministry said, want to buy them back. They kind
4:02
Speaker 2: of challenged that, and then yesterday in court they said
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Speaker 2: I actually no, you have to sell them. And basically
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Speaker 2: the government or the Ministry Defense, will pay them six
4:12
Speaker 2: billion for this portfolio. The way it comes out, it
4:15
Speaker 2: sounds like a victory for the government. But actually, when
4:17
Speaker 2: you dig into it a bit more deeply, one of
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Speaker 2: the concerns of Guy Hans's vehicle was that because he
4:24
Speaker 2: knew lease hold reform laws, they might actually have to
4:27
Speaker 2: sell the assets for much less than their market value.
4:30
Speaker 2: And as it turned out, they haven't had to do that,
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Speaker 2: And so it's story to cut to the chase. It
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Speaker 2: basically means that the government's got to come up with
4:36
Speaker 2: six billion cash by you know, January. And while it's
4:41
Speaker 2: going to save the money in the long term as
4:43
Speaker 2: an accounting thing, you know, because it's not gonna have
4:45
Speaker 2: to pay rent anymore for these properties, obviously, it's another
4:49
Speaker 2: sort of little chunk of money that is going to
4:52
Speaker 2: have to come from somewhere. And it's also another example
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Speaker 2: of how the British legal system is really starting to
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Speaker 2: pinge and interfere and become an investment risk. The point is,
5:05
Speaker 2: if if there's sort of archaeology of financial you know,
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Speaker 2: shenanigans and changing rules and retrospective decisions carries on, you
5:13
Speaker 2: can see why investors, perfectly global investors might actually start
5:17
Speaker 2: to feel that all the things that make the UK
5:19
Speaker 2: attractive are not as attractive anymore. You can't believe a
5:22
Speaker 2: lie on it anymore. So anyway, it's just something to
5:25
Speaker 2: keep an eyeing.
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Speaker 3: It is, I mean given and we've discussed this before
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Speaker 3: that one of the reasons that the UK should be
5:31
Speaker 3: attractive is because it's brilliant and business supportive, legal system
5:34
Speaker 3: not so much onto somewhere that everyone likes a lot
5:37
Speaker 3: more than they like the UK the US. We've been
5:40
Speaker 3: looking at the US market for ages and feel a bit.
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Speaker 1: Nervous about it, haven't we saying, you know, but maybe
5:47
Speaker 1: maybe just maybe it's too expensive, maybe just maybe it's
5:51
Speaker 1: too too popular, Maybe maybe something will go wrong. And
5:54
Speaker 1: we've just had the Bank of America's latest fund manager
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Speaker 1: survey out and that that is about going out as
6:00
Speaker 1: it gets. So everyone is very very low cash holdings.
6:03
Speaker 1: US stock allegations is what people say they're doing is
6:06
Speaker 1: of fast one. They're actually doing just a big gear.
6:08
Speaker 1: But the US stock allocations are at a record high.
6:12
Speaker 1: Pretty much everyone is expecting great returns from the US market.
6:16
Speaker 1: No one's worried about a global recession. Everyone thinks there's
6:18
Speaker 1: going to be more interest rates cuts, et cetera. So
6:21
Speaker 1: this is a very bullish, very very confident survey. Are
6:26
Speaker 1: we convinced?
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Speaker 2: I think I'm convinced that the contrating indicators have just
6:30
Speaker 2: lined up so well. Now at the year end, I'm
6:34
Speaker 2: going to be absolutely one hundred percent honest here. If
6:36
Speaker 2: we don't see a ten percent correction in the S
6:39
Speaker 2: and P five hundred in the next six months, and
6:42
Speaker 2: if we don't actually fight, I would go so far
6:44
Speaker 2: as to see if we don't see a bear market
6:46
Speaker 2: in the Nasdyck by the end of next year, then
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Speaker 2: I will no longer I will have to get ready
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Speaker 2: mark faith in sentiment indicators altogether, because honestly, they've just
6:57
Speaker 2: you know, Trump ringing the bell in the New York
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Speaker 2: Stock case exchange. That's just it's you couldn't parody it.
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Speaker 1: But I'm going to be fair. He did ring that bell,
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Speaker 1: and the market hasn't done so well since, is it.
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Speaker 2: Well, no, it hasn't because basically the Dow Jones has
7:13
Speaker 2: fallen for now nine sessions in the rows we say this,
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Speaker 2: and it started on the fifth of December, which is
7:21
Speaker 2: is the day the poor old David Rosenberg, who is
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Speaker 2: a guy that have followed for years and someone who
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Speaker 2: could I think fairly be described as a perma bear
7:32
Speaker 2: on stocks, partly because he's a bond guy. And I
7:35
Speaker 2: know that he you know, take offense at that, but
7:38
Speaker 2: I don't. I think an objective observer would say that
7:41
Speaker 2: it's not unreasonable he categorize him like that. He's not
7:43
Speaker 2: Albert Edwards. Bey is the closest thing you'll get. And
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Speaker 2: he basically capitulated that day, by which I mean he
7:50
Speaker 2: threw in the town and said, well, well maybe this
7:52
Speaker 2: I stuff does mean that we're in a you know,
7:55
Speaker 2: a different regime, and of course, you know, the market
7:58
Speaker 2: started falling since then, although one thing o Elsie is
8:01
Speaker 2: the nisdyck has continued to go op. So it's the
8:04
Speaker 2: dough and the s and P eating extent that's come
8:07
Speaker 2: off his well by the nis dyke, which obviously is
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Speaker 2: the tick. But is kip going on?
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Speaker 1: As you say, there's a kind of a bullish capitulation,
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Speaker 1: Isn't that pretty much everyone is now saying, well, we
8:17
Speaker 1: don't even really understand why, and times are different, and
8:20
Speaker 1: this isn't just this isn't a normal business cycle. This
8:23
Speaker 1: is a technology driven, endless bull market, et cetera. So
8:29
Speaker 1: sentiment across the board is super bullish. But I'm interested.
8:31
Speaker 1: And we had the brilliant Eddie Ardini on our podcast
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Speaker 1: a while back, and he's one of the one of
8:36
Speaker 1: the biggest bulls of all bulls out there, and even
8:39
Speaker 1: he has begun to say, well, that's correction coming, a
8:42
Speaker 1: correction in a ball market from him his point of view,
8:45
Speaker 1: to be fair, partly because sentiment is so bullish, partly
8:47
Speaker 1: because the breadth of the stock market has been falling,
8:51
Speaker 1: so his numbers only thirty percent of S and B
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Speaker 1: five hundred companies are beating the index on a year
8:57
Speaker 1: on year basis, moving era average is not quite with
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Speaker 1: it should be. And of course, to cover stories, the
9:03
Speaker 1: story embarns why the stock market could gain another twenty
9:06
Speaker 1: percent next year, the idea if these cover story indicators
9:10
Speaker 1: being the t once once these ideas meet the retail
9:13
Speaker 1: audiences as a whole, they're probably on their way out, which,
9:16
Speaker 1: by the way, I don't think is completely fair, but
9:18
Speaker 1: very often Bullich magazine covers have been contrarian indicators.
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Speaker 2: Right.
9:22
Speaker 1: The other thing points out which I do think is
9:24
Speaker 1: interesting is insider activity. The insider sell buy ratio is
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Speaker 1: very high, so we've got a lot of insiders selling
9:33
Speaker 1: into very strong price gains. Now that makes sense if
9:37
Speaker 1: you know, if I was an insider and the shap
9:38
Speaker 1: prize of my company had gone up by four hundred percent,
9:40
Speaker 1: of course I would be selling into it. But nonetheless,
9:43
Speaker 1: the higher that number goes, the more it suggests that
9:46
Speaker 1: insiders are beginning to get a little bit cautious from
9:49
Speaker 1: pulling back. So you know there's risk out there, right,
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Speaker 1: A lot of risk.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I've probably formed more would be when I'm
9:56
Speaker 2: saying that you know, a twenty percent connection, and it's
9:59
Speaker 2: like these d actually has a correction. Is not a
10:01
Speaker 2: devastating beer market. And I can totally see how you know,
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Speaker 2: this might just be a slip in a longer bill market.
10:10
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong view on that, but yeah,
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Speaker 2: the level of shuberance means that something surely has to
10:17
Speaker 2: come off.
10:18
Speaker 1: Either's something has to happened or we are very very
10:21
Speaker 1: very old fashioned and it's different this time.
10:25
Speaker 2: True. Actually, did you see the new The new craze
10:28
Speaker 2: is for quantum computing now, so all the quantum stocks
10:32
Speaker 2: have shot up.
10:34
Speaker 1: You know how everyone says that we don't understand bitcoin
10:37
Speaker 1: because we haven't done the work. That's not true. But
10:41
Speaker 1: I really really don't understand quantum computing.
10:44
Speaker 2: Do you No, No, But in apparallel universe.
10:48
Speaker 1: I do. That's that's so clever. I don't know how
10:51
Speaker 1: to respond.
10:51
Speaker 2: I don't know how to respond.
10:52
Speaker 1: Listen, listeners, listeners, if you could send me and John
10:57
Speaker 1: no more than two paragraphs, and when I say paragraphs,
10:59
Speaker 1: I mean more than five sentences in each paragraph, and
11:02
Speaker 1: those sentences cannot have more than one clause each explaining
11:06
Speaker 1: to us how quantum computing works. And what it means.
11:09
Speaker 1: We would be extremely grateful because we don't want to
11:11
Speaker 1: go through another multi year period of people telling us
11:14
Speaker 1: to educate ourselves and do the work.
11:16
Speaker 2: It's very exhausting.
11:17
Speaker 1: Now, one area that I want to talk about before
11:20
Speaker 1: we go, which is not suffering from extreme positive sentiment
11:25
Speaker 1: is the investment trust industry in the UK. Now, regular
11:29
Speaker 1: listeners and readers will know that I have a history
11:30
Speaker 1: of sitting on the boards of investment trust and I
11:32
Speaker 1: do still sit on the boards of two investment trusts,
11:35
Speaker 1: neither of which will be mentioned here bo which you
11:36
Speaker 1: can see in my Buyer. Now, it turns out that
11:40
Speaker 1: an awful lot of investment trust trading on a discount
11:42
Speaker 1: have an American activist investor sitting on their shareholder list
11:47
Speaker 1: called Saber Capital. And today we have news that this
11:51
Speaker 1: firm manager has requisitioned general meetings at a large group
11:55
Speaker 1: of trust trusted. They hold them at larger states Billy
12:00
Speaker 1: give A, the US Growth Trust, Edinburgh Worldwide, Keystonpolts to Change,
12:03
Speaker 1: Henderson Opportunities Trust, European Smaller Companies Trust, and a couple
12:07
Speaker 1: of others. So that's a lot of fairly big name
12:11
Speaker 1: trusts that SABA wants to have meetings for too. As
12:14
Speaker 1: they put it, hold the fund managers to account because
12:17
Speaker 1: of the discounts and quote the inability to deliver a
12:20
Speaker 1: sufficient shareholder returns. Think about what Samba will want boards
12:25
Speaker 1: to do. They may want them to go and replace
12:28
Speaker 1: the boards. They may want to put in place more
12:30
Speaker 1: tender offers, so allowing let's just to tell their shares
12:33
Speaker 1: back to the company at net asset value or possibly
12:36
Speaker 1: just to really enhance the share buyback. So there will
12:40
Speaker 1: be a lot of worried boards out there today. But
12:42
Speaker 1: it's also very interesting because for the investor, if you
12:46
Speaker 1: have been buying investment trusts at large discounts, there hints
12:49
Speaker 1: here that action is being taken them like close those discounts.
12:53
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean I think if you in these trust
12:55
Speaker 2: you would be tough to see. This is a good
12:57
Speaker 2: thing because I mean, the very fact that Sabah was
13:02
Speaker 2: a presence on these trusts shareroad of vegets obviously pricked
13:07
Speaker 2: up a law interestment that first happened. And I think
13:09
Speaker 2: now the fact that they're saying one way or another,
13:12
Speaker 2: these discounts have got to close is really good news
13:16
Speaker 2: for investors and investment trusts because the sector as a
13:20
Speaker 2: whole has been hammered, and you know, a lot of
13:24
Speaker 2: that I'm sure is for reasons out with broads controls
13:28
Speaker 2: things like you know, regulations and course disclosures and confusion
13:32
Speaker 2: over that, and also generally they flood from active to passive.
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Speaker 2: Means the investment trusts been losing out, But equally, I
13:42
Speaker 2: think there's probably things that they could have done that
13:44
Speaker 2: they haven't been doing, and we'll find out if that's
13:46
Speaker 2: the case.
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Speaker 1: The thing is that you know, a discount tuning it
13:50
Speaker 1: as it value as a function obviously supplying them on
13:53
Speaker 1: and there's been a massive fall offer in demand in
13:55
Speaker 1: the investment trust sector, particularly for the smaller trust because
13:58
Speaker 1: the mergers in the wealth management business have meant that
14:02
Speaker 1: there's a lot of central lists of what you can
14:04
Speaker 1: buy and what you can't buy it and and a
14:08
Speaker 1: wealth manager will need to take a much larger state
14:11
Speaker 1: in an investment trust and would have in the past.
14:13
Speaker 1: And that means that the type the size of investment
14:15
Speaker 1: trust that they can invest in it has gone up
14:17
Speaker 1: and up and up. So when I first started hanging
14:19
Speaker 1: around the investment trust industry, that you know was reasonable
14:21
Speaker 1: to expect that if your trust was worth three hundred million,
14:24
Speaker 1: the wealth managers, we buy it, and then they went
14:25
Speaker 1: to four hundred five hundred. Now a lot of the
14:27
Speaker 1: big wealth managers will say, well, we can't realistically invest
14:31
Speaker 1: in a trust unless it's got a market cap of
14:34
Speaker 1: knocking around a billion. So that means that demand the
14:36
Speaker 1: smaller trust has fallen off, partly from that business, partly
14:40
Speaker 1: from the institution sortously been moving away from UK listed
14:43
Speaker 1: all together, and the retail investor not quite enough of
14:47
Speaker 1: them coming in to make up their demand gap. So
14:49
Speaker 1: that's part of it, and the big of the is
14:52
Speaker 1: count gets maybe you know the worst. The eventual return
14:55
Speaker 1: to the shareholder on an annual basis looks it's all
14:58
Speaker 1: very well, the IT value going up by either fund
15:01
Speaker 1: manager performing adequately. But if there's a discount, the shareholder
15:05
Speaker 1: isn't isn't seeing that return. They're seeing the share price,
15:07
Speaker 1: not the nestatic value. So you know, it's a difficult
15:10
Speaker 1: time for the industry. It really is. I mean, this
15:12
Speaker 1: is an interruy that's been to it or for a
15:14
Speaker 1: lot of difficult times in the past, but this time
15:16
Speaker 1: really is is very tough.
15:18
Speaker 2: It's current like a microcosm with the whole ukey equity market,
15:23
Speaker 2: and the government is like a negligent investment trust board. Absolutely,
15:28
Speaker 2: a declaim which is caused by fact does that it
15:31
Speaker 2: can't dilately control, but it's not doing it and about it.
15:34
Speaker 1: It can do more about it. That is the key thing.
15:37
Speaker 4: And so when you see Saber coming onto these boards,
15:39
Speaker 4: it's generally considered by boards to be a bad thing
15:42
Speaker 4: because it suggests that the more buybacks will be forced,
15:47
Speaker 4: tender offers will be forced, and that means that the
15:50
Speaker 4: trust shrink right and that threatens their long term viability altogether.
15:54
Speaker 1: So if you have to keep being buybacks and if
15:56
Speaker 1: you have to put up a tender offer and a
15:58
Speaker 1: lot of sheholders disappear from the register and you end
16:01
Speaker 1: up with a market cap of two hundred million or
16:03
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty million or one hundred million, what
16:06
Speaker 1: happens You end up shutting down because you're no longer viable.
16:09
Speaker 1: So in that sense, it does thrashen the long term
16:12
Speaker 1: existence of the investment trust industry in size, which I
16:16
Speaker 1: think is a very bad thing because they're great long
16:19
Speaker 1: term investment vehicles and were served invest as well hundreds
16:22
Speaker 1: of years at this point. So losing this sector would
16:25
Speaker 1: be very, very bad on the other hand. On the
16:28
Speaker 1: other hand, it is also the case that sometimes boards
16:31
Speaker 1: and fund managers also can become complacent, and boards can
16:35
Speaker 1: spend a lot of time asking the fund managers who
16:37
Speaker 1: they hire to run the money on their behalf too,
16:41
Speaker 1: and you know, and change way they invest or change
16:44
Speaker 1: way they market, or change various things and not necessarily
16:47
Speaker 1: get what they want. And then you may also find
16:49
Speaker 1: that there were boards that are not quite doing what
16:51
Speaker 1: you should do. So in some senses, having an activist
16:55
Speaker 1: like this coming into the market and going, whoa, you guys,
16:57
Speaker 1: you're going to be better necessary really a terrible thing,
17:01
Speaker 1: but it might have consequences for the sectors that long
17:04
Speaker 1: term aren't necessarily good for the retail dust. Am I
17:07
Speaker 1: making this sound too complicated? No, it makes sping around
17:11
Speaker 1: about basically springs around a job.
17:14
Speaker 2: Well, I think it's very exciting, at least at this
17:17
Speaker 2: point it's exciting, and I think at least will put
17:21
Speaker 2: a rocket up the backside of the sector and possibly
17:25
Speaker 2: of make it just more appeal on the You don't
17:28
Speaker 2: get more flows in because people think, oh, actually that
17:31
Speaker 2: thing that's on twenty percent, that's going maybe that's actually
17:33
Speaker 2: going to bee realized and not all at some point
17:37
Speaker 2: in the next six months.
17:38
Speaker 5: Well, and I did write last week or the week
17:40
Speaker 5: before about the renewable energy and that's my trust from
17:44
Speaker 5: trading on massive discounts, and I never we're a bet
17:46
Speaker 5: down on renewable allergy at the moment.
17:48
Speaker 1: Although by the way, the wind is blowing big time
17:50
Speaker 1: at the moment, so suddenly renewables look great for UK
17:53
Speaker 1: electricity generation. But nonetheless, some of these trusts are real
17:57
Speaker 1: phenomenal discounts with relative interesting inflation link cash generation cash
18:02
Speaker 1: generating assets inside them. So yeah, what's a look, and
18:06
Speaker 1: the entire sector is worth a look if there are
18:08
Speaker 1: these activists coming here to try and shake things up
18:10
Speaker 1: a little, Son's good. Okay, there you go. So there's
18:13
Speaker 1: something expensive and something cheap for Christmas? Anything else, John.
18:19
Speaker 2: No, I think it's just time you wish your readeros
18:21
Speaker 2: of many Christmas and not happy New Year.
18:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, Merry Christmas and happy New Year.
18:26
Speaker 2: And do you too, John, and I and you too, Bell.
18:32
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