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Convene Talk: How Tariffs, Visa Delays, and Travel Uncertainty Are Reshaping the Events Industry · PCMA Convene Podcast

• Convene Talk, ep. 66/June 6, 2025 *Note: the transcript is AI generated, excuse typos and inaccuracies Magdalina Atanassova: This is the Convene Podcast. Welcome to another episode of the Convene Talk. Jen, what have you picked for today's recording? Jennifer N. Dienst: Thanks, Maggie. So I've actually not picked one story, but really several, including one that I wrote last week. And it's really just the number of stories that are showing dips in travel, dips in exhibitors, dips in attendance as a result of some of the current administration's new policies around border control and tariffs. So it's something that I wanted to highlight just because a lot of these numbers are really disconcerting. They're pretty gloomy. But I also wanted to talk about it because there's a number of things that our industry as well as others are doing to help offset that. Something I wanted to share. I also participated in listening to a recent webinar from ciso, hope I'm saying that correctly, the Show Organizers Members association. That was on May 13, so about 10 days ago. But it was all about how tariffs, travel and events, what event producers need to know. So they actually did a great job of summarizing some of this latest data and talking about what the impact has been on event producers. And it gave a really, really great, some really great insights into how this is affecting meeting planners. So multiple participants said that they've heard of particularly Canadian companies issuing mandates to employees to either avoid attending events in the US or even engage with US Companies while exhibiting at events. There are also some big drop offs in exhibitor numbers. There was a planner from the film industry, specifically the American film industry, who said that her event later this year has one third fewer exhibitors than compared with previous years. There was also a few people who said that exhibitors are kind of in a wait and see mode, especially those from companies who are really tied closely to the stock exchange, which is understandable because there's been so many ups and downs because of the tariffs. It sounds like exhibitors or exhibiting companies are really kind of just waiting till things shake out. But that's, you know, impacting the event planners who are running shows right now. So we're also just seeing travel in general down to the US we're seeing some really big numbers out of Canada. I think I saw okay, in March 2025, the number of Canadians returning from land visits to the US dropped by nearly 32% compared with the year prior. For those traveling by air, 13%. So those are pretty significant. We're also seeing just, I think it's about 9% overall travel to the US has declined for that same month. March 2025 compared with the year prior. So I think right now people are really concerned that this could affect attendance for future events, especially some of the bigger events that the US Is expected to next year and beyond. So that includes, like, the World cup. That includes America's 250th anniversary. That's happening next year also in 2026. We've also got the Olympics coming up in 2028. All of those events are attracting international visitors and we're seeing tons of visa delays. That's something that doesn't seem to be getting any better. So we have senators like Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. I think there was another letter actually that went out after this one that they sent on May 9, where even more senators back this m expressing concerns to the Department of State that, you know, the US Is not prepared to host the events because of the visa delays. For some countries, people can wait up to even over a year, months to get a appointment to apply for a visa. So it's not even just getting the travel visa. So this is. This is pretty scary. There's a lot of stuff going on here that I think event planners are right to be concerned about. But I wanted to highlight some of the things that event planners are doing. I think we're seeing, you know, groups like ECA lobbying for issues like the visa wait times. Like I said, we're seeing senators who are sending letters to the Department of State to lobby them to do something about it. And I've also heard about specifically from this CISO webinar that major international events like IPW has actually put up a page on their website telling attendees what to expect when it comes to traveling to the US like, if they have to get a visa, how far out they need to do that. Also essentially walking them through the border process. That's another issue that the webinar, as well as a lot of organizers have highlighted as being an issue that's keeping international attendees from coming to the US for meetings or events. People are scared of getting turned away at the border, getting interrogated for obvious reasons. We've heard a lot of stories about that. So IPW kind of got in front of it by explaining on the page what to expect so that it makes, I guess, the process a little bit less scary to those who are interested in coming. So I'm interested to know what you are thinking about this. I mean, I think this is something that we've talked about before. It's on our mind. You know, there's a lot going on here. But it all boils down to this is having an impact on travel to the US and it's having an impact on people who are traveling to the US for meetings and events. Michelle, what are you thinking? Michelle Russell: You know, I'm going to go just a little bit off to the side, but it's all related. I think that. Well, first of all, our pulse, our first Pulse Survey said that 75% of the people who completed the survey said that they're seeing their attendance affected by what's happening in the current environment. So that's three quarters of meeting planners. And I think we. So our last cover story, we really focused on uncertainty and how everyone is trying to navigate a very uncertain environment, geopolitically and otherwise. And I wish I had read this before we worked on that, because this is an article I just read this morning from behavioral scientist. And it's not just uncertainty. It's what he calls, this psychologist calls radical uncertainty. So there is something called. And this is what everybody is dealing with. It has to do with, as you cited all of those statistics about travel and well, if the tariffs change, is that going to change people's appetite to travel to the US or is it a perception issue? What are we dealing with is. That's not what is called. Let me just pull it up so I quote correctly. It's not just what is called probabilistic uncertainty, which is that you can specify precisely the odds, right? So if you have a container of half black and half red balls and you put your hand in and you pull one up, there's a 50% chance you're going to get a red ball, there's a 50% chance you're going to get a black ball. So we're all more comfortable with that kind of uncertainty because we sort of know what the odds are. What we're dealing with today is you stick your hand in there and you don't know how many balls or what color they are or what you're gonna pull out. So that is what's called more ambiguous or what this psychologist calls radical uncertainty. It's Barry Schwartz, who is a visiting professor at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. And I think he doesn't have any suggestions for how to deal with it. He just says, we have to acknowledge that we're all living with this radical uncertainty, and it makes people anxious and uncomfortable. And I think for planners, I think, to recognize that all of this is new territory and there's no way of knowing how the tariffs are going to change if they're going to change whether the geopolitical situation is going to improve or whether the U.S. reputation for welcoming visitors is going to get worse. There's just no way to plan for that. And so they, I think, are in a really difficult spot. But at least recognizing that everybody's experiencing this makes me feel better that it's not just this anxiety is something I'm feeling, but is sort of generalized for everyone, particularly when you're trying to plan something. So that's my little off to the side conversation. But I think looking at all these stats, it's just something is happening, but what's it gonna be like in the next couple of months? Barbara, what do you think? Barbara Palmer: You know, this also sounds like kind of off to the side, but when you were speaking, it just made me think about just the conversations people have around purpose, like, why are we meeting? And it feels like in the face of that radical uncertainty, it's really important to know what why you're meeting, why you need to meet in person. Some of those answers apparently are, we don't need to meet right now in the face of all this uncertainty. Because, you know, meetings are like, they are something that are a variable. They're not like these fixed costs. There's things that can be adapted and adjusted. So I think that makes it easier to postpone. We just read today about a big cybersecurity conference that was being postponed. And I think, like, I don't really know what a remedy is for that when it's so uncertain, other than just being very specific about why you're meeting and being able to connect your meeting to that purpose. Jennifer N. Dienst: I think also too one option for some meeting planners, some of the stats have shown that it may be that they deal with that uncertainty by moving their meeting altogether outside the U.S. so this survey that GBTA, the Global Business Travel association did, showed that about 20% of companies have started to or are considering either canceling their meeting or relocating their meeting to outside the US and that says to me that they're willing to pay money to avoid that uncertainty. Or there's an example that Tommy Goodwin from that webinar also shared that he heard from someone, a colleague in the industry, who said that a meeting planner called up the venue or the hotel and said, where can we send our $500,000 cancellation check to cancel our event? Like, no conversation, no. No negotiation, no nothing. They just have wanted nothing to do with the US and their meeting. I don't really have any more context besides what he shared, but to me, it's a little scary because, you know, I'm wondering how DMOs are feeling right now in the U.S. you know, are they especially like the ones the, the destinations that really see a ton of meetings, business or meetings, hotels that really, really rely on that, that business. And they're not just leisure. Because while I think I've seen a few polls and some research that shows, like, domestic travel, especially leisure travel, is not really changing right now, like, there's still plenty of that. The meeting side and the business travel is what's really going to struggle. So you're right. Like, if, if there's not a really, really good purpose, a business reason, like they, they really, you know, and if they have a lot of international attendees who don't feel comfortable or can't come here because of all these hurdles, then you may see them go elsewhere. Magdalina Atanassova: You know, I had a little peek into the results of the current, the second post survey that we are running, but it appears to be the same as what we already saw in the first one in terms of communication. So there's a lot of uncertainty, but it seems to paralyze planners. So they are not really proactively communicating what's happening and how people can navigate all these changes and respond in a sense that, yes, I can book my travel and still come to the meeting. Thank you for, you know, holding my hand and navigating this scenario with me. I don't see that. I mean, we don't see that in the results. We didn't see them last month when we ran the first one. And it seems that this month is the same. Planners are just unable to react. And I wonder how and why, having in mind that we went through Covid, where this was supposed to be our learning curve. In such situations where the situation is dark and gloomy, we need to react, we need to be proactive. We need to have crisis communication plans. Even though that, you know, it may not be a crisis for all, but still, it's a tough situation. And I wonder why. Why is there no readiness on the side of planners? Barbara, what do you think? Barbara Palmer: You know, Well, I was just thinking about an organization, and I don't know if they said they were contemplating this or they did it, but setting up a hotline for travelers that they could call there at the airport, I feel like the complexity of the issues, like, I feel like in Covid, you had this one enemy, which was this virus. And, you know, and there was a lot to be gained about sharing information about that. And people had, you know, I think, well, they didn't have similar attitudes about the vaccines, but they had very similar. Everybody wanted the virus to go away. And I feel like in this instance, not everybody's in the. It's just very complex. And like you think about setting up a hotline, but I also know at the airport if you were, I know Michelle and I were questioned at one border and I don't think we could have called a hotline at that point. It's like they take your, you know, you're not on your phone. So I think some of these things are pretty complex. But I was thinking during Jen's really excellent and comprehensive introduction to this is that it would be great if there was a joint response to this, if people shared, oh, this is what we're doing, this is what we're hearing. No, you aren't going to get your phones. But you know, you could. If you're really concerned and you really want to come to the meeting, you can mail your phone to the convention center ahead of time and you can get like an inexpensive phone to travel with or, you know, I don't know if that's reasonable, but I'm just wondering if there couldn't be more of a combined response to this. I think it has all happened so quickly. I don't think anybody was expecting, I know, I think sometimes about just predictions about this, the administration. I don't think anybody was expecting this kind of ping pong about tariffs, which just this weekend we heard another switch and it's like it's hard. And maybe, you know, one way to approach it is to just look at those meetings that haven't changed and find out what is it about those, what is it that they're doing differently, how are they approaching it? That's. That might be different. That could be helpful to people that are just not knowing what to do. Kate Mulcrone: Yes, you make a great point about international attendees especially need to hear, well, what do I do if I get pulled aside? What happens? And it's hard to have that conversation when things are changing so quickly. But I got curious and I just decided to take a look at both. Jen sent us before this podcast a link to the IPW page from US Travel. It's called Arriving with Ease in the United States for ipw. And it just has a long list of instructions for people. But what I found really interesting is it advises you to be calm and respectful and patient in a way that's slightly alarming to me. But there's nothing too specific about what they're now calling secondary inspection. And that's basically where people are being detained and questioned for an unknown amount of time. Someone might take your phone or they can even legally ask you to share your passwords to your social media accounts. And so I'm not sure that it's on the meeting planner to. To communicate extra advice, but I think it is worth it for anyone traveling to the US who's not a citizen to, like, proactively look for other resources about what to do if you get pulled aside for this secondary questioning. And then also, just as a practical step, I. I see the advice, and I found this. I found this on a page called understanding your rights at customs, what to do if you're detained, put out by a New York City area law firm, because that's where I live. And I found this piece of advice really smart. And maybe it can help someone log out of all of your cloud accounts before you get on the plane. Because, yes, they can ask you for your password, but if you're not already logged in, they'll probably just leave you alone. I thought that was, like, a small, practical piece of advice. And it looks like. Barbara, you have something. Barbara Palmer: Well, I was just gonna just say that I remembered when I traveled to Istanbul, a time of unrest, and someone met me at the gate and accompanied me through customs. And I don't know, I feel like there's a lot of airports in American cities where, if that was allowed, that there would be people that would, you know, a lot of meeting attendees coming in, that that might be a solution. And I wasn't particularly worried about going through custom, maybe because of my own ignorance, but it was. If I had been, that would have been enormously comforting. Jennifer N. Dienst: Actually saw a really helpful video, which I feel like we could link to in the show notes. This was a lawyer who's talking on social media, who actually talked through, like, if this happens, here's what you need to know, here's how to handle it. Here's what to expect. And he also said that this applies to U.S. citizens. Like, this can apply to you. You. You have to remember that when you're at the border, you are not yet in America. So, like, you screaming about, like, your rights, it's not a thing because you're not in your country yet. Now, he did say that if you're a US Citizen, they can't deny you entry, but they can search your phone. They can do all kinds of things. And I won't repeat what he said because I can't remember exactly. And this is a lawyer, so I'll just. We'll link to it so you can watch for yourself. Now, if you're not a citizen, obviously things are a little bit different and a lot more scary. And I'm not going to comment on that because I'm a US citizen and I have global entry and I, you know, have the privilege of breezing through border control. But I think he brought up some really important points in this video, including that this is still a really small percentage of people who are experiencing this. And yes, we're seeing and it shouldn't be happening. I'm not saying it should be happening. I'm not saying it's, it's not important. I'm just saying, like, the chances of this happening to you are still kind of slim. And here's how to handle it. I thought he had some really good tips, which is to stay calm. There are some things you can do with your phone ahead of time, but you have to remember that they can search your phone, citizen or not. There are certain things they can't do with your phone and they can't download things from your phone. So there's, there's only certain things they can do in that moment. And then to do like really deep dives into your phone or laptop, they actually have to have a separate special like permit or permission for. Again, grain of salt because I'm just repeating what he said and it's been a minute since I watched this video, but I think, you know, I would love to see maybe meeting planners posting something like that, like, or have a lawyer record something similar and post it on their site, kind of walking them through what this means for both a US citizen, you know, and for those who aren't. I think that would make people feel a lot better. Having information and like understanding what could happen, I think is half the battle. I think fear is a big part of it now. And I'm not saying it's not unsubstantiated because it is, but I think that might help. Magdalina Atanassova: Well, I can give you the global perspective with an upcoming trip to the US just in couple of weeks. So what my strategy is. And you can count that as going to an event, right? Because we have this internal meeting. So my strategy for that is to just get some information, but not overly, you know, invest myself in prepping for that or over complicating my thoughts about it. I've talked to a few friends that travel often. I have not heard from anyone around me experience anything at the border. So fingers crossed at this point that there won't be anything outside the norm happening. And really I'm relying on the fact that at the current moment, the media is really taking news and making them maybe slightly bigger than they should be. So that's the panic starting to speak. And it's not helpful to anyone. It's not helping me because I started panicking the first time I started hearing and reading such news. At this point, I'm like, this trip is happening. I don't see any warnings from my country. I don't see any warnings from my airline. I would love to watch that video, Jen. And that would be it. And it will be linked in the show notes for anyone else with the same thoughts like me. Barbara, what do you think? Barbara Palmer: One thought that has occurred to me is that when there's a change like this, when there's kind of a public amor scrutiny at the border, there's going to be a number of people who work at the border, like tsa, that aren't great at their jobs, that they are like, you know, misinterpreting, like, you know, I just feel like some of those things could have been missteps. Some of the people that were improperly detained are just, you know, people not understanding the rules. And your point is such a good one that, you know, there's a lot of stories about, oh, this is happening. And then they say, well, and there was this one traveler that this happened to, and that is utterly significant, that it happened to that one traveler. It's important, it's significant not to brush that aside. But when you're thinking about the volume of people and the likelihood of that, I feel like just more knowledge about what the intentions of these rules are. And because I haven't heard a lot of stories lately about international travelers being detained, it seems like they were kind of a couple of months ago when these things were new. So that could be something to look at if that. If that was just like, oh, that was somebody who just didn't understand. They're just trying to follow their instructions and not doing it in the way that it was intended. Because I do not believe that it is the intention of the US to stop people from coming and going to conferences. And I mean, it's to everyone's benefit. Magdalina Atanassova: If you think about it. The current president also has a lot of investments in the tourism sector. Right? He has hotels, he has other venues that, you know, you need travelers to go there. So that may be, you know, hopefully helping at some point. I don't know. But it's just one side of the story. He would definitely not want to kill his own businesses. And by the way, I have to mention that border control is always funny for me because I'm super tired. I've never landed in the US not being tired because it's a long way from here. So it's always hours that you are spending in not ideal conditions on a plane. But I found that most of the times people have been really understanding when they ask you a simple question like, where do you come from? And you just stay for five minutes looking at them and being like, I have no idea right now where I'm coming from and where I'm going. So they've been extremely understanding. And, you know, these might be occasions where, like, Barbara, like you said, that somebody took their job a bit too seriously and said, oh, this person is very suspicious with that. And they have to check their accounts and make sure they are not a threat to the country. It just happens. And I know many people, I've seen it, I don't like it, but I've seen it on planes, people that are afraid of flying, that resort to alcohol. Not ideal, but it happens. So it also may play a role. So just adding a few more nuances to the stories that we hear out there, just because things happen. Jennifer N. Dienst: I'm very interested to hear how your experience goes, Maggie, and if it's different because you, you travel the US all the time. I mean, you come, you know, you come here frequently for work and whatever else. And yeah, I actually over the weekend had to reapply or redo my global entry. So I'm very curious to see, and this is like the third time I think I've redone it or renewed it. Renewed it. That's the word I'm looking for. So I'm very curious to see if anything's different this time because I've, you know, breezed through that. I've had it for, I think, over a decade, maybe 15 years. I got it as soon as I possibly could because I travel a lot. But I'm very curious to see, especially with, like, you have to list all your countries that you've been to since you've done it. And I listed, like, Egypt, I've listed Bhutan, and Bhutan is on the red list. Another thing that I touched on in my story is that Trump is still expected to sign an executive order for a new travel ban, which, if you've read about it, it's going to be a little bit different from the first go around. It's going to have three tiers. And essentially what it is is you have the red category, which is travelers cannot come from those countries. And then the other two, there's just kind of like a delay for them to process approval for their travel visas due to various reasons. Bhutan, strangely, which I just went to last year, makes absolutely no sense, is on that red list. So I'm just curious to see if that's gonna require me to do anything extra or have to go in for questioning. Because they do interview you and make sure if you get gold, one tree to make sure that, you know, you're safe, I guess. I don't know. Anyway, I'm just very curious to see if that's any different this time and if things are any different for you. So we'll have to wait and see. Magdalina Atanassova: I guess we can do a special episode of what happened a few weeks later. Michelle Russell: It will be interesting to see if there's a difference between when you came to the US for convening leaders in January before the administration and this time back then. Magdalina Atanassova: It was really nice. And actually, the. The person, you know, the. Barbara Palmer: I don't know. Magdalina Atanassova: Is it policeman? I don't know what they are at. Michelle Russell: Border patrol, Customs officer. Border Patrol. Yeah, yeah. Magdalina Atanassova: The person that checks your passport. Barbara Palmer: Yeah, I think that's TSA. Michelle Russell: Yeah. Jennifer N. Dienst: No, TSA is different. Barbara Palmer: TSA is different. Michelle Russell: Yeah, yeah. Border. Border officer is different. Jennifer N. Dienst: CBP is different. Customs Border Control or. Yeah, TSA is like, oh, you're right. Barbara Palmer: Yeah, that's domestic. Kate Mulcrone: Yeah, yeah. Michelle Russell: But even if you don't have Global Entry, I think they do check, you know, your passport stamps. So if you have been in a country that is. Jennifer N. Dienst: Nope. They scan my face and I walk through. Michelle Russell: No, no. I mean, in terms of being concerned about countries you visited, it's not a concern just for people who are applying for Global Entry. It is a concern for people have a passport. They look through your passport when you go through. Jennifer N. Dienst: Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Michelle Russell: And if they identify locations, they will. They could ask you, why were you there? Why were you. Why did you visit there? Magdalina Atanassova: This reminds me of a few years ago when I was traveling frequently into Israel. And I often fly also through Istanbul, which is considered entry or. And I had entries. I've been to the country and I've always. I was always stopped at the border, no matter if I was going in or out of the country. And I was always questioned about what was I doing in. In Turkey, why was I there, who did I visit like I needed. And there were, you know, these rapid questions that are coming at you, and you're like, oh, my God. What did I do? Why was I there? Do I remember names of people? It's really scary. Kate Mulcrone: Yeah, it is. Michelle Russell: You. You feel like you're put on the spot and you kind of panic. I know. Jennifer N. Dienst: Yeah. Kate Mulcrone: Yeah. Jennifer N. Dienst: I have friends who would go to Israel a lot, and they would actually, I think, have them not stamp their passport, but stamp a piece of paper or something like that because it would go to other countries where they wouldn't have been allowed to enter or something. This was a long time ago, and I can't remember why, but. Magdalina Atanassova: Yeah, yeah, it just. It. Well, before the war, it used to be like that. They never stamped your passport. They. They had other identifiers, but not a stamp. Just. Yeah. To give you the option to not have issues outside. But now, from what I understand, just because of the war, they reinstated visas. Even for me, for example, I wouldn't need a visa to fly in there now. I would. Just because of all the. The issues with the war. So that's unfortunate. Jennifer N. Dienst: I saw flights are restarting. I think it's. American Airlines is restarting flights to Tel Aviv, like this week. Something I can't remember, but a US Airline is restarting flights, which is significant. Magdalina Atanassova: Yeah, that's positive. Yeah. Anything else we should add? Thank you all for the great discussion. Remember to subscribe to the Convene Podcast on your favorite listening platform to stay updated with our latest episodes. For further industry insights from the Convene team, head over to PCMA.org/convene. My name is Maggie. Stay inspired. Keep inspiring. And until next time.