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Pre-Election Crypto Market Expectations · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
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  Speaker 2: All right, so let's continue on here.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Just as a reminder for you guys on this and
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna pull my IEM out for a second just.
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: To remind you guys.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: We are doing our live stream tomorrow and one of
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the big things that we are going to be covering,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: of course, is our full livestream on election night.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: We'll have a couple of guests.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Coming in, all sorts of things coming out for you guys,
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: so make sure and tune in over on the YouTube channel.
• 0:52
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• 0:56
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• 1:12
  Speaker 2: All right, let's go over to a couple of topics here.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I want to zoom in on this right here, which is,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: of course, what's happening this week, And of course one
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: of the things that's happening this week is the SMP.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: We get a bunch of the S and P top
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: companies reporting this week. Also the Fed's potential to likely
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: cut on Thursday, and whether or not we'll see a
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: quarter basis points or not on Thursday is the real
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: big question. I think some of this may have a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: bearing on what we see coming in from the election itself,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: and of course we'll see all of our votes coming
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: in on Tuesday. Whether or not we get a president
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: on night before bed will be the question. Market of course,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: there will be a lot of states that will get called,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: so be on the lookout for those as well.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: I want to go over.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Here and also check out this right here in which
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I think is important, and that is that Wall Street,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: of course is gearing up for an all nighter on
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: election night. JP Morgan boosting staff in Europe and Asia
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: overnight volatility. Golma Sacks of course is looking at one
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  Speaker 1: hundred on site in New York, ready to go all night.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Across the industry is looking for all night or so.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: I think the impact on what traditional Wall Street and
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  Speaker 1: what could be happening in the S and P also
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: in after hours trading, but I think crypto is most
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: likely going to see the most impact going forward. You
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: look at the poly market numbers right now, Trump is
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: still edging at fifty eight percent, even though this has
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: been moving quite a bit. Let me zoom in on
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: this for you, guys. Look at the ratio of where
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: this has been over the weekend. Trump clipped out at
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: sixty five percent and then plummeted down here to around
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: fifty six, where Harris of course accelerated up to forty four.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: And of course it's leveling off right now on Monday.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Whether this holds through tomorrow is the real question mark,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: and a lot of swing states still in the balance.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Of course, Nevada looks like it is going to swing
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: in there at least right now. These are, of course,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: remember predictive markets, not necessarily having anything to do with
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: the traditional polls or any of the data coming out
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: of these states right now, which we'll be reporting to
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: you guys tomorrow night.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: Like I said, we will have special guests.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So if you're brand new in here to the live
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: stream today, just make sure and jump over to the
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: YouTube channel and subscribe and notify so you can get
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: in on that live stream tomorrow night. And I think
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the key here right now is whether or not the
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: impact of crypto is going to be felt by a
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Trump win or a Harris win. Many people are looking
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: at this in different ways. I think a lot of
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: people are looking at it. In the percent percentage of
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: possibly a Trump win. JP Morgan forces a sixties seventy
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: percent chance of a Trump winning the election. A couple
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: of points they hit on is the volatility about ten
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  Speaker 1: to thirty percent higher than twenty six team versus and
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Also, they're talking about that the dollar could
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: go up a bit if Trump wins, but Congress is
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  Speaker 1: also split, so it might rise around one point five
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: to two.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Overall believes that the.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Current market positioning isn't expected to hinder the US dollar
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: from rising and might even help if Harris wins. So
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of variations here going into this, and
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I think this is the thing that a lot of
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: people are still trying to figure out, is what market
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: to play because if you look at risk assets versus tolerance,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I think also within investing is another factor that plays
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: into this.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: What is your risk tolerance on this uncertainty over the
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: path of corporate taxes.
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  Speaker 1: Would increase near term. I think a lot of people
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: are worried about that from a business side of things.
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  Speaker 1: Further out, equity performance might see a support with some
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  Speaker 1: reduced Harris risk scenario, because I think that is another
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  Speaker 1: factor that plays into this, where Trump will have a
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  Speaker 1: pretty aggressive model on tariffs. Now you've got, of course bitcoin.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin is set to potentially reach one hundred twenty five
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  Speaker 1: K if the Republicans here both the presidency and Congress.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: And this is right now on the cusp of winning
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: the Senate right now. Remember the Senate was a fifty
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: one to forty nine and it is now holding a
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: fifty to fifty. So there are some things brewing right
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: now with what could be happening in.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: The Senate races.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: And if we do end up winning, when I say
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: we Republicans, if they do end up winning that race,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: could change things up pretty significantly. US election versus Federate cut.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Five things to know this week. There's a couple of
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: points I wanted to hit on here. One is the
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  Speaker 1: Southern News and if you look at bitcoin right now,
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  Speaker 1: holding in at around sixty seven, mid sixty seven, whether
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: or not we see a continued decline in bitcoin, I
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: think we might throughout Monday, possibly early Tuesday, before we
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: start to see maybe some market stabilization. Interest rate decision
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  Speaker 1: also will come two days later. I think that will
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: give a another catalyst, whether it's a good one, which
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: will depend again on who is in the house. And
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: then bitcoin market cap dominance is also at its highest
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  Speaker 1: level in three and a half years, so a lot
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  Speaker 1: of people looking at that in terms of the market dominance,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: especially when you look at bitcoin, because that has been
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  Speaker 1: one of the key indicators before you start to see
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  Speaker 1: all coins start to flow in.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: So a lot happening there.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get to a few clips here and then
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: I can put my earpiece back on. But I wanted
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: to show a couple of things within this topic right here,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: and this is something that I think people are looking at,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: and this is the prediction markets and everybody's been looking
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: at what's happening, calls you what's happening on polymarket?
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: If it is disputed, this could be a bit of.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: A problem for the prediction markets. And there's a few
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: scenarios that they painted out. One was the winner versus inaugurated,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: which I thought was interesting. In the prediction markets, traders
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: been on VERI file outcomes real world events, specifying time frames,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: typically by yes or no shares, et cetera. If the
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  Speaker 1: prediction it's true, zero, if not on poly market, bets
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: are settled in USCC, and of course cryptocurrency obviously you
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: kind of if you understand how it works, both whether
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  Speaker 1: you're on calshi or within polymarket. What was interesting was
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  Speaker 1: the contract winner we're looking at is a new inauguration
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  Speaker 1: contract just gonna wait till January twentieth.
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  Speaker 2: If it doesn't.
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  Speaker 1: Resolve, then it'll give it another what eleven days to
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  Speaker 1: the thirty first, and then if no one's been inaugurated
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  Speaker 1: by then, this is where.
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  Speaker 2: It gets weird.
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  Speaker 1: Both Trump and Harris yes shares will resolve to know
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and know so everybody loses on the backside. That would
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: be a problem, I think for Calshi in general. I
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: want to go over to a couple of clips here,
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  Speaker 1: and the clips that we're going to get into are
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: going to be playing out a couple of things. One
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  Speaker 1: of course, is CNBC talking about this whether or not
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  Speaker 1: it's better for markets if this is decisive.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 3: I actually the one thing I really want, really badly
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: is for it to be decisive. I want it to
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  Speaker 3: be over tomorrow night. I want it to be over,
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  Speaker 3: and I want a five point spread for whoever went yes. Now,
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  Speaker 3: I know that that's probably unlikely, but oh my god,
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  Speaker 3: for all of us, wouldn't that be the best possible
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  Speaker 3: thing to happen. Absolute decisiveness.
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  Speaker 2: There.
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  Speaker 1: I think the key thing he was getting at is
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  Speaker 1: absolute decisiveness. And one of the things that I think
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: a lot is going to be going into this is
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: whether or not we get a decisive winner, whether it
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: is the Republicans or the Democrats. The key here is
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  Speaker 1: if it is decisive, that will help the markets kind
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: of move forward. And I think that's the problem that
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: everybody's been facing right now, is whether or not this
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  Speaker 1: is going to happen. If we get a really close race,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: most likely it's going to be contested by both sides
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: that I think will cause more volatility for sure. There
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of an equity strategy assignment as well,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: and I've got a clip on that.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: Let's see if it goes through. Let's go to that clip.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: You know, I read so much about the election and
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: earnings calls the last two weeks. I'm looking forward to
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: when we actually get past the event, to see if
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: the company tone changes a bit, because I'll tell you, Becky,
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: like all this anxiety, all this angst that's weaying on investors,
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: it's waying on companies as well, and I'm seeing that
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: loud and clear.
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: Does that mean companies aren't doing things that they might
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  Speaker 5: otherwise they're waiting to see what happens before they decide
• 9:27
  Speaker 5: longer term plans.
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: I think probably.
• 9:29
  Speaker 6: So.
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: I am seeing some companies say that that's what their
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: customers are doing, both corporate customers and consumers, more so
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: on the former than the latter, to be honest, But
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: we are seeing companies, and to be honest, we even
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: saw this in the last reporting season, some companies saying
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: it's taking longer to get deals through, it's taking decisions
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: longer to get made. And I'm seeing that commentary really
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: escalate in recent weeks.
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: You'd think that there is some watershed moment that comes
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: maybe Wednesday or Thursday of this week, if we know
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: who the next president's going to be, or is it
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: more complex than that.
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: I think it's more complex than that, And you know,
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: I sort of share your concern because I think whoever
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: wins right, it's going to take some time to see
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: what policies they've been talking about are a priority. I mean,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: we've gotten this enormous menu from both candidates, and they're
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: not going to be able.
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: To do everything, maybe more than three months. Even the
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: inauguration is until January and then or do you think
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: this all gets gamed out in the next couple of months.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: I think you're going to have some short term reactions
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: to the event, and then I think markets are probably
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: going to put some of this stuff on the back burner.
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: Do you think investors should take the same approach.
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: I think they should. I've been telling people not to
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: trade the event this week. I'm more interested in whether
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: or not we have any big gaps up or down
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: and then coming in and try and take advantage of
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: some of those opportunities.
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: So if the market sales down, you'd buy. If it
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: trades up, you'd sell.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: When we model out next year, we come up with
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: sixty two hundred on the SMP to sixty five hundred,
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: depending on what the earnings environment looks like. We need
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: to see the starting point, of course, but I think
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: if you put politics aside, the economy's pretty sound. Valuations
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: should stay pretty elevated if we do get those bed cuts.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: So it really kind of boils down to a couple
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: of routes that you could take. I'm not necessarily in
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the boat of not trading, because you could for whatever
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: conviction you have, you could short this, you could long this.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: But I think the key here is is if you're
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: looking long term, there really isn't going to be much
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: of an impact I think in general. But again, this
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: is going to go out into and this is of
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: course is barring nothing crazy really goes down. But most
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: likely if it's just a contestant win, then we could
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: see I think a little bit of alasilia and then
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: some stabilization from the market. Tom Lee talks about this.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: He said, hey, the market is still primed for a rally.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 11:38
  Speaker 7: A lot of things turned back reversed, DJT reverse bitcoin,
• 11:43
  Speaker 7: I didn't hold the didn't move into the mid sixth
• 11:46
  Speaker 7: He's got in the low seventies. I don't know whether
• 11:48
  Speaker 7: the banks and other Trump trade Exchange and all the
• 11:50
  Speaker 7: betting markets certainly moderated late last week came back.
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: A little bit.
• 11:55
  Speaker 7: Do you think if you have a change in your
• 11:58
  Speaker 7: opinion on the election now, Well.
• 12:01
  Speaker 6: It does seem like over the last four or five
• 12:03
  Speaker 6: days that the election really narrowed when you look at
• 12:06
  Speaker 6: betting markets or the polls. And I know a lot
• 12:09
  Speaker 6: of people don't necessarily trust polls, but I think the
• 12:12
  Speaker 6: quality and the adjustments of the polls have made them
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: more accurate. So I think it is really a toss up,
• 12:17
  Speaker 6: and it's it's going to be a very close election
• 12:21
  Speaker 6: and something our clients are preparing for. Because we did
• 12:25
  Speaker 6: a survey last week, seventy six percent don't think we'll
• 12:28
  Speaker 6: have a winner declared election night, and forty three percent
• 12:34
  Speaker 6: roughly expected one week after. So I think markets are
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: kind of bracing for this period of uncertainty. I think
• 12:40
  Speaker 6: that's why many of the trades have reversed. One thing
• 12:44
  Speaker 6: I was thinking about over the weekend, though, is I
• 12:46
  Speaker 6: think the market's fear of uncertainty will peak before. It's
• 12:52
  Speaker 6: very likely it peaks before the election outcomes actually decided.
• 12:55
  Speaker 7: So you're still bullish.
• 12:57
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm bullish only in this sense that election uncertainty
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: has caused people to de risk and cash to sit
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: on the sidelines. But the fundamentals have been good. Earning
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: season's been very good. The feed is dubvish, and I
• 13:10
  Speaker 6: don't think it's going to matter who ends up in
• 13:12
  Speaker 6: the White House, even if it's split Congress ur's sweep.
• 13:14
  Speaker 6: I think markets do pretty well either way. So it
• 13:18
  Speaker 6: sets up for a really good rally into your end,
• 13:20
  Speaker 6: but when it starts in November, it's just what we
• 13:22
  Speaker 6: don't know.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of in agreement with Lee.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: There are some things within that, though, and you could
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: look at this with that. You know, when you mentioned
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: that seventy six percent that weren't expecting a election night,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: you know certainty that could end up being a bullish
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: scenario if we actually get a report, So that in
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: itself could be a scenario that plays out fairly positively.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: If you look at past elections. Here, let me kind
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: of zoom in on this. These are US elections and
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: bitcoins price since twenty sixteen. So you've got the twenty
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: sixteen elections down twen percent and then skyrocketing twenty elections
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: down six point one, and then of course right now
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: we're setting on actually down a little bit more than that,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: probably around six point four right now in terms of
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four So could we be in the
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: queue for a small correction and then a bitcoin explosion. Now,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: as I said, we weren't going to take questions today.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know we're going to do a poll today.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Do we have one lined up? But we will be
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: doing our live stream tomorrow night on Tuesday. Make sure
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: and jump in over on the YouTube channel. It's the
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: best place here. If you are back on the YouTube channel,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: make sure and go right here where you can click
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: the notify me and that's going to give you the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: notification of when we start the live stream. It's going
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: to go from six pm Eastern till hopefully we have
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: a winner, but we'll be going pretty late. We will
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: have several people on, so we've got quite a few.
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: Guests coming on the show.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: We'll be trading a little bit as well, seeing how
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: the market is responding.
• 14:55
  Speaker 7: Live.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Give you guys, some indication on some of the all
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: coins that are moving or not. We're Bitcoin is standing
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: and of course lay that all out for you. Of course,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: if you're not in the Diamond circle, that's the other
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: thing I want you guys to get in on is
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: jump over to the Diamond circle.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: We always leave a.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Link down below that gets you into it. And of
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: course catch me out there on X at Paul Baron.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time right here on tech math