Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 336 - 8/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 336 - 8/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 336 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:36
Happy Thirsty Thursday as our work week rolls on.
0:40
Almost coming to a close here guys.
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And you know what? I woke up today thinking there
0:44
were two NFL pre season games. So I was already capping the
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games for tomorrow, which if you haven't noticed, we have
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Tennessee and Atlanta. It's a 7:00 game.
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Big move toward Tennessee -3 1/2 up to 5 1/2, but it's coming
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back down toward 5. So I picked off a + 5 1/2 with
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Atlanta, then also KC Seattle 10:00 game tomorrow open Kansas
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City -2 1/2 on the road we flip to -3 first Seattle.
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And I was looking at a money line play on Seattle with Kansas
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City most likely going to rest a lot of their guys.
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And then I even wrote a sharp report about the two matchups
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tonight. And then someone tweeted me and
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they said aren't those games for tomorrow?
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And I was like yes you are right, those games are for
1:23
tomorrow. So hope you woke up today
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knowing which day and which games are being played.
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But either way, guys, we do have a very small baseball slate,
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only seven games overall, but I do have a three pack of plays
1:34
for you. I got a couple money lines and
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also have a total, a weather based total with some really
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good juice liability as well as a sharp mush edge from our
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friends at Juice Real. So we're going to look through
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our three pack. Try to cash some tickets here,
1:47
guys, try to go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day.
1:50
Now I want to mention real quick, we've now had the NFL
1:53
Sharp Betting Playbook live and available, real and spectacular.
1:57
You can pick it up anywhere, Amazon.com or your local Barnes
2:00
and Noble. But it's not a couple days.
2:02
And I want to thank you guys because we are still number one.
2:06
We're still #1 Amazon in the category of sports gambling, we
2:10
are #1 so it's great to see. I think I want to thank you guys
2:14
all again for buying a copy. Continue to tweet me your photos
2:18
of you holding the book. I love seeing those and I also
2:21
want to give a shout out to those of you who have already
2:24
put up a five star review on Amazon.
2:27
Now I want I'm going to be I'm going to ask you guys a favor.
2:29
Not only am I going to ask you to buy the book and support the
2:31
team and get some great sports betting data as we prepare for
2:35
the NFL season, but also could you give it a five star review
2:37
and a nice little blurb on Amazon?
2:39
Because one thing that I learned from my first book is that the
2:43
more five star reviews, the more verified purchases that leave a
2:46
little blurb talking about what they enjoyed about the book.
2:49
That really helps us to stay number one and continue to get
2:53
more views and click. So it's really important that we
2:56
get these these five star reviews.
2:57
And so we've already gotten 3. I want to give it a shout out to
3:01
Amy T5 star review titled my sport betting husband's review.
3:05
So shout out to Amy T doing some work for her husband but she put
3:09
It's a smart and practical sports betting guide that
3:12
belongs on every sports better shelf.
3:15
My husband loves Josh in his book and really brings all his
3:17
expertise and logic to life. Highly recommend quote or quote
3:21
UN quote written by my husband so appreciate it.
3:24
Amy T and her awesome husband Emily Allison Five star review 5
3:29
out of five she put Josh Applebaum is the man and this is
3:31
a great book. This book is great for beginners
3:34
or experienced gamblers. Boom love it.
3:37
Kindle customer Five star review.
3:39
Must read loaded with useful information, short and sweet.
3:44
So I'm telling you guys it'll take you 2 seconds, but if you
3:46
do enjoy the book, you want to help me to continue to keep this
3:49
momentum going as we're still number one.
3:51
I'm loving that please five star review short little blurb and it
3:54
can be literally as simple as loaded with useful information
3:58
again, 4 words, but it means a lot.
4:00
So thank you all for buying the book.
4:02
Remember, you can get on Amazon, buy it for a friend, get as many
4:06
copies as you want. But I really do appreciate you
4:08
guys and we're off to a very, very good start.
4:11
Now, aside from good, good opening here for the book,
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unfortunately not all good things can last forever because
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we were six and O to start the week in MLB.
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Went one and two yesterday -1.2 units.
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The Rays came through, which was nice.
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That was a late night sweat with a road favorite non division
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line move. But the Yankees lost 4 to 1.
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They're up 1, nothing and blew it.
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And the Guardians, Gavin Williams almost threw no hitter,
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his last start out, his start out, he got rolled and the
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Guardians lost 13 to 4, got absolutely crushed and at one
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point the game was tied 4 to 4, then completely let go of the
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rope. So Guardians and Yankees let us
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down, but we did get a winner there with the Rays.
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So let's see if we can start a new winning streak here for
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today. So that being said, as I
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mentioned, it's a very small slate in baseball, but I do have
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3 plays for you, 2 money lines and one total.
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We don't bet a lot of totals, but this one jumped out to me
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for a variety of reasons. So let's waste no more time.
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I do want to get this pot out a little bit earlier than usual
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because there is a day game that caught my eye.
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Let's look at a three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch Chicago
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Cubs visiting the Toronto Blue Jays.
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Now this is an interleague rubber match here the Blue Jays
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who are 70 and 51. They won the opener 5 to one
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came through as a -, 125 home favorite.
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Then we saw the Cubbies who are 68 and 51.
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They bounce back with a four to one win yesterday, cashing as a
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+ 115 Rd. dog. So in this late afternoon series
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finale again, three O 7:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the
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Cubs are going to go with the lefty Matthew Boyd.
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He's 11 and five with a 2.45 ERA.
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And the Blue Jays are going to go with the fellow going with
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the righty veteran Max Scherzer, 2 and two, 4.2 on ERA.
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So what do you see across the market here?
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Well, this isn't the biggest line move in the world, but I
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did notice that this game opened at basically a pick em.
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It was pretty much -110 both sides, some books even opened a
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slight favorite with Toronto at home.
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But we've now seen this line flip toward the Chicago Cubs,
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going from basically a pick em to now a -115 Rd. favorite and a
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couple books even touching -120. So again, it was a pick em game,
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even slight Toronto favorite at some shops.
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Now he flipped not dog to fave, but pick em to fave in favor of
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the Chicago Cubs. Now to continue this cap here,
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what I really like is the Cubbies bet splits.
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If you look at DraftKings, the Cubs are getting 54% of money
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line bets, but 62% of money line dollars.
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So really good low bets, higher dollar split coming down here in
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favor of, of course, the Cubs in this spot.
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But then also if we look at Circa, Circa's got another
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really good split toward the Cubs, 49% of bets but 79% of
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dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa low
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bets, higher dollars aligning with the move here toward the
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Cubs. Now the Cubs would have some
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value as an interleague favorite, lack of familiarity
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benefiting, quote UN quote, the better team.
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I'm going to hope Boyd pitch as well.
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More on him in a second. But then also that the Cubs can
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get to Scherzer because the Cubs on the year have the better
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bats. They're hitting or they have hit
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169 home runs, they've scored 604 runs.
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Blue Jays have hit 139 home runs, only scored 589 runs.
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So not a huge discrepancy, but more explosive bats here on the
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Cubs. You look at Boyd, remember they
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picked him up. He was at one point with Detroit
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and then the Guardians, but he's been a big, big pick up for the
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Cubs. He has a 2.25 ERA and two August
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starts. He's given up 0 earned runs in
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four of his last six starts. That's pretty darn good.
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And also in day games, he's pitched pretty well.
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Four and one 1.66 ERA. Cubs have the slight edge in the
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bullpen as well. If we got to sweat this thing
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late, they have an ERA of 3.83 versus 4 point O 7 for Toronto.
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And I did notice some smart money hit this under.
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So you had a lot of books open 8 1/2.
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It's down to 8. It's just under.
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I think one shop is even at 7 1/2.
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But it's notable that you have the line kind of dropping toward
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a lower scoring game and simultaneously moving toward the
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favorite. Hopefully that's a, you know, 5
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to 1 win here by the Cubs today. We had all up guys.
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Bit of an early match up here, but we have seen a move toward
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the Cubs. Really good bet splits on the
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Cubs. I'm going to take a shot on
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Chicago in this one. I got Chicago -114 at DraftKings
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again, shop around. Most books -115 even -120 and a
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little little gas to the fire here.
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A little cherry on top. I popped open the Juice Rail app
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and one of the two Robo Jackson best bet picks.
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And if you're unfamiliar, Robo Jackson is an AI bot.
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He puts out two best bets based on all the data at Juice Rail
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each day at noon. And one of the picks is on the
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Cubs. So I'll take that.
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Let's go cub these guys next. Let's now go to the Big Apple.
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7:10 PM Eastern Time, First pitch, the Atlanta Braves
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visiting the New York Mets. Now this is the rubber match of
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a three-game set as well. We have the Mets coming in 64
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and 56. They dominated the opener 13 to
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5, came through as a -145 home favorite.
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Then the Braves who are 52 and 68, they clawed back with an 11
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to six win yesterday, came through as a + 170 home dog and
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pour one out for anyone who might have had the the Mets
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yesterday because they were up 6 to nothing and then lost 11 to
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6. So man that that's a tough one
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there. Now pitching match up for
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tonight, Braves are going to go with the righty Bryce Elder.
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He's 4:00 and 9:00 with a 6.12 ERA.
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Mets meanwhile going with fellow righty Cody Senga, he's seven
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and four with a 2.3 O ERA. Now what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, this game opened pretty
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big favorite with the the New York Mets -185 Atlanta around a
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+ 165 Rd. dog. And it's notable to me that even
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though the Mets are really struggled recently and they blew
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a huge lead yesterday, the fact they open has a pretty big
10:00
favorite. And again, Atlanta pretty juicy
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dog. But the line hasn't dropped
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toward Atlanta. No, it's gone further toward the
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Mets. Mets have now gotten steamed up
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-185 up to -190 some shops now even as high as -195 I jumped on
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the Mets at -190 at Bet MGM. And of course, every bet, not
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just a big favorite on a money line price, but every bet here,
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of course is Bettris first bet to win.
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So if you are playing Mets with me, you're not risking 1.9 units
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to win one unit that'll be betting to win.
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You're just risking your one unit trying to get a little more
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than 1/2 unit back. Now to make you feel a little
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bit better about this Mets play #1 we're buying low on a on a
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team that struggled. So you kind of have that in your
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back pocket. But also, if you look at Circa
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out in Vegas, 40% of bets are on the Mets, but it accounts for
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nearly 60% of the dollars. So it tells us we got a low
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bets, higher dollar split here in favor of the Mets, which
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aligns with the line move. Then we have quite a few systems
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on the Mets. So Thursday, home favorites -175
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or more. They're 19 and six this year, 76
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percent, 9% ROI. Home favorites who made the
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playoffs the previous season, playing opponent who also made
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the playoffs the previous season.
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That system is 109 and 6862% with a 4% ROI.
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Favorites -190 or more. Playing an opponent who made the
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playoffs the previous year. Those teams are 41 and 1672
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percent, 6% ROI. So quite a few matches here on
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the Mets. Mets would have the more
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explosive bats. They've hit 154 home runs,
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scored 532 runs. Overall, Braves have hit 135
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homers, scored 515 runs. So slight edge offensively
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toward the Mets and then New York, they're 35 and 1866
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percent, 5% ROI as a home favorite.
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That's the fifth best chalk team at home in baseball.
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And when they are a home favorite playing opponent below
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500, they're 19 and 676 percent, 14% ROI as a home favorite.
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Cody Senga has been a pretty good to pick up coming over from
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Japan couple years ago. But the Mets are 13 and five and
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his eighteen starts, he's five and one with a 2.42 ERA at home
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this year. Also, you look at the Braves and
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Elders, 19 starts, they're 7 and 12 and he's given up 4 earned
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runs or more and six of his last nine starts.
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So hopefully the Mets can get to Elder here today.
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By the way, on the road he's two and five with a 5.61 ERA and
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just home home Rd. in general, Mets are 39 and 22 at home.
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The Braves are 22 and 38 on the road.
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So they have struggled in this spot.
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So you got all up here guys and all the Mets have struggled.
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But this number kind of speaks volumes to me.
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Like why are the Mets such a big favor if they've struggled so
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much? Well, hopefully it's kind of a
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Senga greater than elder spot. Hopefully if you if you have a
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six nothing lead, you blow it and lose.
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Give up 11 unanswered runs and lose 11-6.
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Maybe you got some just revenge on your mind here hopefully for
13:00
today, which can also be a benefit.
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But yeah, it all up here guys. I am going to late with the
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Mets. Give me the Mets.
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I got a -, 190 at Bet MGM last bat of the night.
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This is a total. Let's look at the Detroit Tigers
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visiting the Minnesota Twins. Now the Tigers come in 70 and 52
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just took two out of three against the White Sox.
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You know, the Twins 57 and 63 just dropped two of three
13:25
against the Yankees, but did avoid the sweep and got the win
13:28
there last night. Unfortunately, because I was on
13:30
the the New York Yankees, might you might have been to as well.
13:33
Now, looking toward the pitching match up here, we have the lefty
13:37
ace Tarik Scooble. Scooble going.
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I don't know if I mentioned this is 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first
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pitch, but Scooble is 11 and three, 2.35 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Bailey Ober. Four and seven, 5.16 ERA.
13:51
Now, in terms of the side, you know, it seems like an obvious
13:54
play to just take Detroit, but they've kind of been around -200
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and pretty much stayed -200 they even dipped a little bit.
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So that's a big number. And Publix all over Detroit here
14:04
in this spot, Tigers are getting like 86% of bets.
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So really wasn't much for me on the money line, But the total
14:10
jumped out to me. I'm going to go under 7 1/2
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here, guys. Here's my thought process.
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One, if we look at the seven and a half, let's look at how the
14:19
juice has moved. It opens 7 1/2 basically -110 -,
14:23
115. Now you're 7 1/2 under -115 -,
14:27
120. So the juice has grown or we
14:29
like to say getting juiced up toward the under.
14:32
Is that an oxymoron? You're getting juiced up on the
14:34
under if you know what I'm saying.
14:36
But anyway, it's becoming a more expensive price to play the
14:39
under. So it tells me there's some
14:41
under liability here. Now the next angle is if we look
14:44
at the splits, they look pretty good toward the under.
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At DraftKings, only 48% of bets, but 61% of dollars are on the
14:51
under. So low bets, higher dollar
14:52
split. We also have Detroit as a big
14:55
-200 favorite. So typically we always talk, you
14:59
know, fav low total, a dog high total.
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But if you're a big favorite -200 low total of 7 1/2, fair
15:06
amount of expected run score, typically going to that better
15:09
team, you know, it's kind of a good sign where maybe it's a,
15:11
you know, 22, nothing game 4, nothing game 4 to 1, something
15:14
like that. Because historically, if you're
15:17
a big favorite, again, you're probably winning the game and
15:21
low total, maybe you're winning the game in a with a few amount
15:24
of expected run score. Now, the other angle for me is
15:27
the weather here. Now we may have to sweat a rain
15:32
delay. I was kind of looking at the the
15:34
forecast here at Target Field. It's going to be like mid 70s,
15:38
but there's going to be scattered showers.
15:40
But most importantly the wind is blowing in.
15:42
So the wind is blowing in pretty good here, about 10 to 15 mph
15:47
from right center. So hopefully the wind blowing in
15:49
will push some first row homers into warning track fly ball
15:52
outs. Then if we also look at in
15:55
general, overs, unders, now, I don't bet a ton of totals in
15:59
baseball. I feel like I have a better edge
16:00
with sides. And if you, you know, lay it,
16:03
lay it under and your bullpen blows it in the ninth, you know,
16:05
that's something that's kind of tough.
16:07
But anyway, in general this year, unders have been the
16:10
better bet. Unders are 52.1%.
16:14
Again, you're losing because you're not overcoming the juice,
16:16
but overs are 47.9%. So you've lost way more playing
16:20
overs than you have unders if you dig a little deeper.
16:23
When the total is 7 1/2 or less low scoring games, the public
16:27
seems to think or you can't really blame them.
16:29
Hey, only 7 1/2 low total, you know, take the over.
16:33
However, when the total is 7 half or less, the under is
16:36
actually 212 and 179. That's a 54% win rate with a
16:41
nearly 5% ROI. The twins are also 63 and 51 to
16:46
the under on the year. That's 55%.
16:48
That makes them the 9th best under team in baseball.
16:52
And then a little cherry on top, I popped open the Juice Reel app
16:55
and noticed a 19% sharp mush edge on the under.
17:00
So we have a good group of sharp winning betters who have
17:03
downloaded Juice Reel synced up their books.
17:05
Also leaning under here, so you Add all up, School bulls a big
17:09
favorite, but we do have a low total.
17:11
It's been juiced up toward the under.
17:13
We got good splits. We got wind blowing in.
17:16
We have this spot of 7 1/2 or less doing pretty well this
17:19
year. And we also have a sharp mush
17:20
edge toward the under. So again, add it all up.
17:23
I'm going under under 7 1/2 and I got it at -115 at Bet MGM.
17:29
So Detroit, Minnesota, under 7 1/2, the Mets and the Cubs, See
17:33
if we can get 2 out of 3. Eek out a winning day.
17:37
So that about does it for episode 336 of the all systems
17:41
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
17:44
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
17:46
start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
17:49
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
17:52
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven breakdowns
17:55
with me. If you do enjoy this pod and you
17:57
want to give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes,
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leave a nice comment under the review section or click the
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follow button or recommend the pod to a friend, you would make
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my day and I'd very much appreciate that.
18:09
Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, data-driven,
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sharp contrarian betting, focusing on what the market is
18:16
telling us, not what our innate biases are telling us in this.
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In that case, if you enjoy and you've kind of been turned on to
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the idea of tracking your live odds page, looking at line
18:26
movement, bet split system matches, you're making bets with
18:28
your head and not your heart. You're taking a contrarian
18:31
approach. If that's the case and you want
18:33
to learn more about data-driven betting or you know someone in
18:36
your life who could use some data-driven tips, then you know
18:38
what I'd love for you guys to do?
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I'd love for you to go to Amazon.com and type in the
18:42
Everything Guide to Sports betting or the NFL Sharp Betting
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Playbook. The Everything Guide is my first
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book. It's great for brand new betters
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really walks you through the data-driven process, how lines
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are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how
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to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
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how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
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management plan, all included in the everything guide to sports
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betting. And then of course, my new book,
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my baby is now two days old, but pretty amazing or I guess three
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days old at this point. But I want to thank all of you
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who have pre-ordered a copy or picked up a copy now that it's
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widely available again, keep the keep the five star reviews
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coming in on on on Amazon, because that does mean a lot to
19:25
me. But I want to thank you guys and
19:27
continue to tweet me photos of you holding the book.
19:29
That's been really, really cool. I don't, you know, I'll give you
19:31
an RT retweet on that one. But if you want to pick one up,
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either the everything guide or the NFL sharp betting playbook
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or both. You don't really want to be a
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hero. Guess what?
19:42
I'll meet you at the book. I'll sign them for you.
19:44
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and I'll sweat some games
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together. Sounds like sounds like a good
19:49
time to me Next, have you downloaded rhythm and juice reel
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yet My two favorite sports betting apps.
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They are great to add to your sports betting data-driven
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toolkit. Rhythm great for their AI backed
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Obviously they have MLB and WNBA live right now, but they also
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have college football that just went live in the app and pretty
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soon we'll have NFL. So again, if you're if you're
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looking to bet like a pro and look for discrepancy plays and
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prop bets with good player prop. What are they called the power
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trends? Those have really been doing
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well also, but make sure you download rhythm and then also
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you download juice reel. Juice reel is a another great
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host, download juice reel and go to buy sell bottom right corner,
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plays immediately. Once I bet them, I bet them at
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because I've synced my books up. You're going to get those plays.
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You can tail fade, do whatever you like, but that costs you
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And again, hopefully we'll beat some closing lines as well.
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21:09
Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel, download
21:11
Rhythm, give him a five star review in the App Store and
21:14
he'll be off and running making sharp bets.
21:17
Next, do you have a live odds page?
21:19
You need a live odds page. I cannot stress it enough.
21:22
You got to know all the games that are being played that day,
21:24
all the bets you can possibly make or choose from.
21:26
You got to know the start times, the live scoring, the live in
21:29
game wagering odds, but most of all the odds logic.
21:32
Live odds page allows you to track the market.
21:35
What is the line open at? Where is it now?
21:37
Which direction has it moved in by how much?
21:39
Identify steam. When the lines getting lit up in
21:42
red, you know it's moving. Then you can look for a slow
21:44
moving book that hasn't adjusted yet.
21:46
Or also you're going to get the notifications for injuries,
21:50
final scores and as always, shopping for the best line,
21:53
finding the best price, which can really increase your chances
21:55
of winning. So give Odds Logic a shot.
21:59
I think you're going to enjoy it.
22:00
If you go to oddslogic.com/josh 123, you're going to get a 7 day
22:06
free trial and 50% off your first month.
22:09
Again, that's oddslogic.com/josh 123.
22:13
So that about does it for episode 336 of the ASG Pod on a
22:17
Thirsty Thursday. I will be, by the way, with my
22:21
buddy Patrick Maher tonight, 8:00 Eastern Time on SiriusXM
22:25
Visa Live tonight if you guys want to TuneIn, but I'm looking
22:28
forward to hopefully a profitable night here tonight.
22:31
Try to eke out A2 in one night on the baseball diamond.
22:33
But as always, guys, two final thoughts, whether I see you at
22:37
the Borgata at Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
22:40
Brooklyn New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
22:42
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park casino
22:46
MGM Springfield, the Nash in my neck of the woods and greater
22:50
greater northwest of Boston here about 10 minutes from the the
22:54
border of New Hampshire, which definitely pays pays off when
22:57
you need to buy stuff and you go across the border and get no
23:00
sales tax. That's been a pleasant surprise
23:02
since we since we got our house almost four years ago today,
23:05
man, time flies. But anyway, wherever it may be
23:09
or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get down
23:11
or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest true as
23:14
possible is found at the South Point or sweat and sharp
23:16
contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
23:19
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
23:22
you're going to walk up to me. Yankees and Guardians, total
23:25
trash yesterday, but show me a race ticket.
23:27
Nice to see the race come through late night.
23:29
First one's on me, next one's on you.
23:31
We'll post about the book. So a sharp contrarian plays all
23:34
night long. So as always, guys, whether
23:37
we're coming off a one and two night, A2 in one night, an O and
23:40
three night, a three and O night, whether hot, cold,
23:43
grinding, treading water, feel like we can't miss or feel like
23:46
we can't hit the broadside of a barn, that's sports betting.
23:49
You're going to have those ups and downs.
23:50
The key is to never get too high or too low.
23:52
You just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
23:55
make bets based upon what the data, the numbers are telling
23:58
us, not what our biases and our assumptions are telling us.
24:01
So if we can do that, if we can find games that fit our model
24:04
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
24:08
avoid parlays and get that CLV, if we can do that, we're going
24:11
to come out on top in the end. So have a great Thirsty
24:14
Thursday, everybody. I'll be right back at it
24:16
tomorrow for episode 337 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
24:21
podcast powered by Rhythm. If you haven't done it yet,
24:24
guys, go buy the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
24:27
Thanks everybody and have a great night.