Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Past/Future Live Sports Moments & WBC Preview with Sean Zerillo

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Past/Future Live Sports Moments & WBC Preview with Sean Zerillo · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: The off season rolls along and in the NFL as
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: we continue to take our tour around the sports world.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Today with Chat WBC, the World Baseball Classic has arrived.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: We've got the big.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Guns joining us Shun Zarillo, lead baseball analyst from Action Network.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I'm your host Brandon Kravitz, joined by the returning Prime
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Minister of DJEN Nation Stucky Kendrim. Middleton is enjoying the
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: vibes of Portugal all the red wine that comes with it.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Stucky knee deep in college hoops. How's the pre tournament
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: process going for you?
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: Good grinding along putting out conference tournament previews all thirty
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: one conference tournaments. Big That's on Campus podcast, make sure
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: you check it out. We are put a lot of
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: work in for those and hopefully it pays off with
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: some winners following on the Action Map. But yeah, awesome
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: time of the year. The actual March starts tomorrow noon
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: yet Valley Tip.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: We have seen that this is March posts, but we
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: need the what's the official what's the official conference that
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: kicks it off?
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: For you?
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: Valley Noon Tip in the Valley on Friday.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: We had a big time trade, and the way we
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: had a few big time trades in the NFL, we
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: didn't get a chance to talk to you about David
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Montgomery to the Texans. Saw Trent McDuffie traded from the
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Chiefs to the Rams. We saw a shift in the
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: odds market with the Super Bowl. The Rams went from
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: plus nine to fifty to plus seven to fifty after
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: adding one of the best.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Dbs in football.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: And the latest, DJ Moore traded from the Chicago Bears
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: to the Buffalo Bills. Remember Moore was traded to the
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Bears from Carolina for as part of the number one
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: overall pick. So that was the hefty package that the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Bears gave up in order to get better at wide receiver.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: And now they've moved on from him. This is something
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: that clearly Buffalo needed. They had to upgrade the wide
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: receiver position. I think DJ Moore, maybe you get a
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Mike Evans in free agency and really revamp this thing.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: But what do you think of the move DJ Moore
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: to Buffalo?
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: Like, I get it they need receiver help, but like,
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: is DJ Moore the answer for their contract? By the way,
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: would he yode one hundred million, you're gonna pay one
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: hundred million for he's gonna be thirty soon, ah, Like,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: and it's not like he's torched the world on fire
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: of Lady might be like a little over the hill
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: in terms of his upside, I think they would need
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: like a like he's he gonna be. What they need
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: is like a reliable, speedy, young deep threat to open
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: up that offense. Is that Dj Moore for one hundred million? Yeah?
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I think I think the Bears work are going to
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: make out in that uh and like they have enough
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: weapons and they it seemed like it wasn't working there,
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: So a change of scenery, you know, could be a
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: good thing. He could be rejuvenated and we'll see how
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: it works. But like, this isn't a huge needle mover
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: for me. It definitely improves to those just because they
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: needed receiver help. But with the contract and his age
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: not wowed, I think there was better options out there.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna be a full hundred mil. He signed
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: a four year, one hundred and ten million dollar extension
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: a year ago, so the Bears have already paid a
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: part of that. I would think they'd want to still restructure.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: He is an overpaid wide receiver. There's no doubt they
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: might want to look at restructuring this contract, but they
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: had to get better. DJ Moore has been a disappointment
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: over the last season, but he is a significant upgrade
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: from who was the number one wide receiver, Khalil Shakir.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: They had to get somebody, uh a slot.
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: Guy, so yeah, they needed help. I don't know if
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: this is the most ideal unless they like restructure this
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: contract is something that's more digestible, then I'll be a
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: little more bullish on the move. But yeah, I mean
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: it's not like it definitely is helpful, but it's not like,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: oh my god, now I'm all in on the Bills.
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: Same thing with the Rams, like like, but this is
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: a year too late. I was saying this last year.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: The Rams just need to go get a corner like that.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: That is like their one weakness is like just get
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: one really good corner and that would make everything on
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: the defense so much easier. And we'll see if that,
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: you know. But now there's like a lot more on certive.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: You're going into a new season, right there's like you
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: could have injuries. But I feel like if they did
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: something like this last year. It could have been the
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: difference in them getting to a super Bowl. But prove
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: it move. They've made a lot of them. They drafted
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: well a position that they needed to get premium talent
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: at and so, and I like what, I don't mind
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: it for the Chiefs either. I think this could end
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: up being a win win trade, but neither where I'm
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: like at this point, I mean, it's March fifth where
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: I'm like running to bet anything as a result.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: A pretty significant move in the market after that. Trent
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: McDuffie news though, Yeah, that's.
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: A little otrageous for one corner to go right. So,
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: but that's the NFL so overreaction season.
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Still to come.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: We've got WBC talk with Sean Zarillo, but first a
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: word about DraftKings from the First Lady.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: The Favorites podcast has teamed up with DraftKings Sportsbook, where
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: new customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Stay in
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: on the action and use your bonus bets on DraftKings
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: same game parlays for a shot at an even bigger payout.
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: To get started, use promo code favorites when signing up
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: with DraftKings. Again, use code favorites when signing up with DraftKings,
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: but five bucks to get two hundred back and bonus bets.
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: If your bet wins, the crown is yours.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: All right, Stucky, you got a random question for me today? Hey,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: this is a dumb question.
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: Let me ask you a personal question. Kind of question?
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: Is that is question?
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah? So if well, number it's two parter one. What
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: is the best live sporting event you've ever been to?
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: So can you? I'll give you a second to think
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: about it, Zurollo, Mine is two thousand and eight. This
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: is a baseball episode, so it's kind of fitting two
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: thousand and eight NLDS Game four. It's really remember what
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: that game.
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: Was, Game four of the two thousand Alds.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Two thousand and eight No Brewers Phillies. Shane Victorino hit
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: a grand slam off CC Sabbathia and the bank was electric.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: There's nothing like a huge home run live at a
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: at a baseball playoff game, the atmosphere is already electric.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: But and then just the white cows everywhere. But those
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: are some of my favorite games to go to. Back
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: in two thousand and seven and Phillies in their playoff games.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: The one, sorry to bring this up through, one of
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: my most unforgettable moments was when the Phillies chased down
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: the Mets, I think in seven and the Mets were
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: just completely melded down a huge division lead. But that's
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: that's my favorite in person, live sporting event. Brandon, how
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: about you, man?
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: I got a couple of ties there.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I think the number one for me is probably here
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: we can cash the Dolphins ticket today is the last
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins victory in the playoffs. I was there for that.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: They beat Peyton Mannings Indianapolis Colts in the year two
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: thousand with Jay Fiedler and Lamar Smith at running back.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That was electric that game. I think it went to overtime.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: If I remember, I have seen a Chris Davis walk
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: off home run since we have Sean Zarilla on the
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: pod today at Camden Yards against the A's. It was
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a regular season game, but you still you never forget
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: seeing a walk off and that was like right after
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: he signed his massive contract. I'm not sure he hit
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: another one after that, but that was definitely one that
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: sticks in my mind and non technically sporting event related
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: I was there when the Undertaker's streak was broken against
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: brock Lesnar at WrestleMania thirty.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: Derella. How about you.
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: I can't believe I'm gonna be the one who gives
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: out a college football game as my favorite event I've
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: ever been to on this pod, I figured Stucky was
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: like a minus one thousand favorite to.
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: I've been to a bunch of college I've never been to,
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: like one that's like amazing somehow, that's like so memorable.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: That would be my favorite.
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: Bok ahead, My two favorite are both from college. One
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: was a Miami Duke basketball game, the other was and
• 8:54
  Speaker 5: the number one was Miami FSU season opener two thousand
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: and nine, my junior year of college Corey Harris Christian
• 9:01
  Speaker 5: Ponder Miami thirty eight, FSU thirty four a double goal
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: line stand, Yes, double goal line stand pass interference on
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: fourth down. They had to run it back for another
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: four downs in order to seal out the game at
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: their defensive goal line. So an absolutely stunning football game.
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: But more importantly, it was the first game of the
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: year between two teams who ended up not being very good.
• 9:22
  Speaker 5: But because of the first game of the year, it
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: meant the entire world. The other game was that Miami
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: Duke basketball game. I think that was from my freshman
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: or sophomore year, Greg Paulis on Duke and Miami's crowd.
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: This is the only time I've ever seen this happen, Stucky,
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: I'm curious. Have you ever seen this happen on TV?
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: With all the college basketball, You've watched Miami's student section
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: chanting fuck you paulas at Greg Paulis for so long
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: that the refs had to go over to the microphone
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: and tell the crowd to either stop or we were
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: going to get a technical foul for our home team.
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: I've never seen the refs warn't a crowd to stop
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: chanting something and the penalty would be a technical foul
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: for the home team.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Is that?
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: Is that something that you're even aware of as a rule?
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: Let alone?
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: Have you seen that before?
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: The couple just a couple of times, But like it's very,
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: very very very rare. I'm usually it's like a coach
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: getting on but like that's usually when like people are
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: throwing things.
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: Or yeah, just words, just words.
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: Words. That last week in Zaga Saint Mary's, the crowd
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: for long stretches was chanting fuck you e K about
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: Graham e K. All right, So second part of the
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: question that my Miami FSU game. I do remember that
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: name too, Cory Harris I think was the Miami quarterback.
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Travis Benjamin elite Travis Benjamin.
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: Uh.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: Second part of the question, if I could give you
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: a you know, red carpet level experience, the best tickets,
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: anything that you want, it's just an A plus experience
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: to and you get free tickets you someone else to
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: go to any sporting event in the year twenty twenty seven,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: so you don't really you don't know any about the
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: teams or anything. What are you choosing? So if you
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: could just be like, hey, I'm going to go to
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: like the Chiefs home game against the Broncos. I want
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: to go to the World Series, the Super Bowl, whatever
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: it is. What sporting event are you choosing?
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I know?
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: So for me, I can't. I couldn't. I wish I
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: would choose the World Series, like World Series Game one.
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: There may not be a World Series in twenty twenty seven.
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: I was going to bring that up. And also I
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: can't go to the World Series like it's during it's
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: certain football, So like I would I can't. I don't really,
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: I can't really leave my dungeon during football, and then
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: it really wouldn't be a football game cause I can't.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: I don't even have time to travel or go to
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: football travel during football season. So like I'm out on football,
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: I also have no in I don't want to go
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: to the go to the super Bowl, rather watch it
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: at home or a party or the bar. So I
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: think I'm choosing for twenty twenty seven, I'm going to
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: choose a Duke Carolina basketball game. I guess I'll choose.
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: I've no I've never been to one. It's on my
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: bucket list. I guess I'll choose which one do I
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: want to go to first? I don't know. I guess
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: I'll go to Cameron or whoever one's on the schedule
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: for like the last the last, the last game of
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: the year. So I would choose to Carolina. You know
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: it's going to be electric, both teams are probably going
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: to be really good, and I've never been into on
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: my bucket list, So I'm gonna go do Carolina basketball game, Zorilla.
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: What can be your mind?
• 12:34
  Speaker 5: It's twenty twenty seven Belmont Stakes. It's going to come
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: back to Queen's where rightfully belongs after being at Saratoga
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: for a few years, but newly renovated Belmont Park right
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: next to right attend hockey games for my New York
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: Islanders as well. But I would imagine the facilities are
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: going to be beautiful and incredibly upgraded, and if I
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: have the chance to get VPU experience at that first
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: Belmont Steaks, I would take it. You know, I would
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: run towards it. So yeah, that's that's the first thing
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: that came to mind, just a Belmont coming back to Queens.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: In twenty fifteen. I saw, I saw, I saw, I
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: had This was just random, but I saw American Pharaoh
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: at Preakness the and then I saw him at Breeders,
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: which was in Keenland, and I also saw him in
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: Saratoga at Traverse where he lost lost to keen Knights.
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: I think, but that's that's I like that pick, Brandon.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: How are you You're gonna choose a Dolphins or magic game?
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: I go to plenty of magic games.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: The Dolphins depressed me, So no, I'm gonna go non
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: fandom related. I'm gonna sit courtside at MSG for Knicks game.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: I would love it to be like the Game seven
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: of the Eastern Conference.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: For you don't know that. You gotta choose. So if
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: you choose Game seven and there's no Game seven, I
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: see you're not going.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: I don't give the ticket.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: All right, Well I'll take game I'll take game on
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference Finals.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Something special about the.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Knicks going up You could go NBA Finals, but I'm
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: gonna go Eastern Conference Finals. Something special about that conference
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: rivalry always feels more heated, like them and whoever they're
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: going up against. There's always a fight that might break out,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: and you don't know who's.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: Gonna be the Knicks. Why are you assuing there's gonna
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: be the Knicks?
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: Well, you said I could choose, Are not I choosing
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: my venue too?
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: Choose the event blindly. So like if you choose, you
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: could choose the College Wall National Championship, but you know
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: it could be like a twenty point spread. You could
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: choose the Eastern Conference Finals. You don't know who's going
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: to be in it, so you're you're choose that. That's
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: that's part of the exercise. Even pay attention. But East
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: Eastern Conference Finals Game one is fine, but it might
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: not be at MSG it could.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Be all right, well, I'll still, I'll still, I'll still
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: go Eastern Conference Finals game one, and if the Magic
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: are in it, then then I get paid to be there,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: so even better.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: And then with Adam your two quick answers with your
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: best live sporting man, would what would you pick?
• 14:59
  Speaker 7: I'm in twenty six and it hasn't happened yet. I
• 15:01
  Speaker 7: think the easy one would be World Cup Final No.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Twenty seven gotta be twenty seven, so.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: No, I get it.
• 15:06
  Speaker 7: But twenty six you could say it because I don't
• 15:08
  Speaker 7: know who's gonna be in it, and it basically plays
• 15:10
  Speaker 7: with this story. In twenty seven, I guess NBA Finals
• 15:16
  Speaker 7: game one something like that.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 15:18
  Speaker 7: Without the teams, it's impossible. I mean, Kentucky Derby something
• 15:23
  Speaker 7: like that's always a good time.
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: Yep. And would you have our best sporting event Verben
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: Dow Live.
• 15:29
  Speaker 7: Oh, I mean, it's hard to beat the semi final
• 15:31
  Speaker 7: that I went to this year for Indiana Oregon, starting
• 15:33
  Speaker 7: with the pick six.
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: Being at that live in that arena, absolutely ridiculous.
• 15:38
  Speaker 7: I mean, I've been to some bad beats the super Bowl,
• 15:41
  Speaker 7: but that one comes to mind.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Ohio State Michigan would be a good answer.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna switch my answer. I've never been to that one.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Go Ohio State Michigan. We know it's gonna happen, So
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: now that I understand the assignment, stucky, but a soft
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: launch for a great guest today, Sean Zarillo from the
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Payoff Pitch podcast joins a US Right now, We've got
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: WBC already underway. Great way to dig in to Baseball's
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: The twenty twenty six campaign is set to get started
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: at the end of this month. As a baseball fan, Sewan,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: you have to love this, but as somebody who bets
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the sport for a living, is it a welcome treat
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: that you get an event like this or a giant
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: pain in the ass to model a tournament on top
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: of everything.
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Else that you do before the season starts.
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: Oh no, I'm fully cooking right now. I absolutely love this,
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: and the edges I'm going to find in this tournament,
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: not only in the futures market, but on a game
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: to gay market are substantial compared to what you can
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: find in a regular season baseball game. Because the differences
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: of opinion and how people are projecting these out are
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: going to be so wildly variable from one person to
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: the max. I'm sure people are with the advent of AI.
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: I'm sure there's some people who are wildly confident they're
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: able to, you know, just say things that basically vibe
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: code themselves a model, you know, and somebody doing this
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: for six years at this point, I know how to
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: speak to the bottles in terms of telling them, you know,
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: the prompts that I want and getting out of it
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: what I want and experimenting and back testing, etc. So no,
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: I'm very confident and in very hype for this tournament
• 17:14
  Speaker 5: just because I think the betting opportunities are going to
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: be abound. I mean, even the first game beating the
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: closing total by two runs shows that I feel like
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: I'm directionally correct in terms of the assessments here. So no,
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: this is a ton of fun and frankly, having a
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: competitive baseball game that mattered at ten pm on a
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: Wednesday with forty thousand people in the stands and the
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: Taiwanese fans just going absolutely nuts for a team who
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: didn't score a run for the entire nine innings against
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: one of the worst pitching staffs of the tournament. Like
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: what else do you want in early March other than
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: competitive baseball you can actually be locked in on. So
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: this is one of my favorite things to watch in
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: every three years. I really look forward to this, and
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: we'll continue to because I think the WBC is just
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: going to continue to grow an interest. Especially the quality
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: of the rosters in this tournament relative to the last
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: tournament is so much better with the eligi ability rules
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: that they're permitting for a lot of these players from
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: you know, countries who they may have ancestry too, and
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: players seem to be more interested in getting involved. So
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: I think we're gonna just see the tournament get gain
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: interest and become more and more competitive each time out.
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: Well, you mentioned modeling this out. I have a two
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: part question about one specific team. One, how did how
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: dies like check? How does chekia just in the air?
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: And how did they qualify? I don't know how they
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: picked the teams Like there's it's I guess there's some
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: qualifying rounds, but like the US did, wouldn't have done that?
• 18:33
  Speaker 7: Uh?
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: And then two, how do you go about modeling? Like
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: they're like guys with a they're like firefighters, right, and
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: like they're just guys with day jobs, so what how
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: are they in this tournament? And maybe there's just just
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: lack of other options. Uh. And then two, how do
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: you go about modeling like a plumber who's also playing baseball?
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and one of these, one of these electricians actually
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: struck out Shoho Tani in the last WBC, which I
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: wonder if Tani ever thinks about that amidst all the
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: MVPs and World Series. He's runs like, I wonder if
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: he regrets striking out to that plumber.
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: Well, he had money on it, so I'm kidding, all right,
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: I'm getting I'm sure.
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: I'm sure his translator did. So, you know, that's it's
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: a great question. And that's probably the most difficult part
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: of this. So the way they qualify. First off, if
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: you got to win in the last of WBC, you
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: qualified automatically for this one. And they had China, not
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: Chinese type AI, but actual China in their group and
• 19:30
  Speaker 5: they were able to beat China. They do not have
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: a China in their pool this time. And teams who
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: didn't get a win in the last WBC, like Nicaragua
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: forgetting the other ones off hand, but there were several
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: teams who had to qualify and play through qualifier rounds
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: in order to get back into this tournament. That's why
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: China is not here this time. They didn't win a
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: game in the last WBC and they didn't end up
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: winning their qualifying pool, were finishing second in their qualifying pools.
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: So that's how you qualify for the tournament. The way
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: you measure these teams, how do you measure guys who
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: are semi pro players in Czech Republic compared to guys
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: who are professional players in the KBO or MPB or
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: for that matter, the major leagues. There's a multiplier major
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: league equivalency that you can basically use to measure these
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: players off of their domestic league stats compared to major
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: league stats. So, for example, a guy in the KBO
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: who posts like a one to seventy five or plus,
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: meaning he's seventy five percent better than the average for
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: that league, while the average for the KBO is about
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: sixty five percent of the major league average. So you're
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: going to reduce that player to about sixty five percent
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: on the major league scale, and then you can kind
• 20:41
  Speaker 5: of figure out how these leagues compared to one another.
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: The more difficult aspect, obviously, is comparing players from leagues
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: that don't really have data, like the Czech League or
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: like these Brazilian domestic players, So you sort of have
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: to use a baseline projection and kind of rate them
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: all as ten percent or fifteen percent of an ada
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: verge major league player, and then you can build out
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: a projection from there. So that's essentially what I have
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: for the checker players. There's a couple of guys who
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: are in the major league or who are in an
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: affiliated ball who are in the minor leagues four major
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: league clubs. The rest of the roster. The other twenty
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: three plus guys on the roster are all check extra
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: league players, So you kind of have to use a
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: baseline projection for all of them and assume that they're
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: ten percent or fifteen percent of the caliber of a
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: major league player. And when I compared, you know, when
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: I ran that through my model of the Korean players
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: on a major league scale and the check players on
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: a major league equivalent scale at ten to fifteen percent
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: of the major leagues, I got the line to minus
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: nine hundred and the total right in line with where
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: the market was. So feel pretty comfortable in terms of
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: those adjustments in the major league equivalencies. But that's that's
• 21:48
  Speaker 5: kind of how you're adjusting country versus country and domestic
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: league versus domestic league. Is using those mls which other
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: people have figured out based upon players who have come
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: over and then put up major league stats and kind
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: of comparing how their major league production compared to their
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: pre major league production.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: And on top of thank you that answer, by the way,
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: that is there any unique because the pools, there's four pools,
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: they're being played in four different locations, right, I assume
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: are there any you know, at ballpark, atmosphere, elevation or
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: ball like, is there a different way? Is is there
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: any ball controversy? You gotta Are you paying attention to
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: any of that early anything that could impact totals or
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: is it pretty straightforward? You know, you're getting from a
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: you know, gameplay and stadium perspective, So there's.
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: No automatic ball strike system like you're already seeing in
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: spring training and you'll see at the major league level
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: this year, which if you watched the game last night,
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: you were pulling your hair out in the first inning
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: because the umpire was all over the place and there
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: were probably five or six challengeable calls just within the
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: first couple of innings of the game that you know,
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: now that you see the abs instituted, it can drastically
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: impact the way an inning goes right, just like one
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: ball call or one strike call at the wrong moment
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: can drastically kind of impact the vibes of an inning
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: and the direction in it inning goes. But the ball
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: is slightly different than the Major league ball, and you
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: know the quality of teams is so disparate that you
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: can get just such blowout scores. You know, these semi
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: pro pitchers pitching against Korean Baseball organization like major league
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: caliber hitters, It's definitely gonna lead to some blowouts. And
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: there is a mercy rule in the tournament. So when
• 23:27
  Speaker 5: you have these teams in these games that are minus
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: nine hundred lines, and Japan, for instance, is playing the
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: Czech Republic, the total really just comes down to how
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: quickly does Japan reach the mercy threshold, which I believe
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: is leading by ten plus runs in the seventh inning.
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: I think if you're up by ten plus in the
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: seventh inning, the game just stops. So is Japan up
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: ten to nothing by the seventh inning, are they up
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: fourteen nothing or.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: Fourteen totals action In that scenario.
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: Totals remain action regardless of when the game settles. Interesting,
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: So you are handicapping and a lot of these blow
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: I would say you're handicapping the mercy rule and how
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: often I think the mercy role comes into effect. Korea
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: didn't hit it last night, but they did score six runs,
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: and they were up six to nothing after the first
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: three innings. But then they start to throw. They're lesser pitchers,
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: right because they don't need why way that game. So
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: then Czech Republics able to get some runs on the
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: board in the game extent and they ended up winning
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: eleven four, So they didn't hit the mercy threshold. I
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: expected them to hit it about one third of the
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: time last night. They didn't get there. But this is
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: you know, this is my general like plea. There's no
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: good ways to bet on those games. So if you
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: work for a book, please start hanging a two way
• 24:34
  Speaker 5: mercy market so I have something interesting to potentially analyze
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: their bet on the game, because I'm not as interested
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: in betting a plus or minus six and a half
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: spread or an over under eleven and a half for
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: a game that may end be a mercy role. I'm
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: much more interested in betting whether or not that game
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: is gonna end be a mercary role.
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: And we're not seeing totals hung right now. I'm on DraftKings.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: We just have money lines right now for all of
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the games that are still to come. Is that that's
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: something that you think will change as the tournament gets
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: going and the books are more comfortable with how to
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: hang those totals or run lines in the game.
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: Absolutely. I think the price discovery for though we were
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: chatting before the show, I think the price discovery for
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: the opening game was fascinating because the line was up there.
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: The money line was up there for hours, and none
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: of the books, offshore, on shore, whatever, none of them
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: are rolling to put up a total. Somebody offshore eventually
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: put one up eleven and a half juice to the over.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: Other domestics put them up eleven and a half juice
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: to the under. I took eleven and a half minus
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: one fifteen because I made the total ten point six.
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: I could have made it even lower than that, and
• 25:36
  Speaker 5: the total ended up closing at nine and a half.
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: So books probably got killed on that under in the
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: first game. I would imagine some people probably tried to
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: get the under in the second game after seeing, you know,
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: an offense like Taiwan's not score anything against the bad
• 25:49
  Speaker 5: pitching staff at Australia, disfiguring you know, it was playing
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: closer to a major league run environment. But you can't
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: really factor, as I said, for the lack of quality
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: of the CHECKI of pitching. So it is difficult for
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: these books I would imagine to measure some of the
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: quality of these teams, and again the emergency rule stuff
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: and when that's going to come into effect and how
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: that might affect the total. But also we don't have
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: a lot of starting pitchers for the matchups tomorrow as
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: of yet. As we get deeper into the tournament, we'll
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: know who's starting these games and as a result, they'll
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: be able to put out the projected totals a little
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: bit earlier. I think right now they're probably putting out
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: these games off of like an average of the pitching
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: staffs instead of taking a specific starter and putting them
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: for sixty five pitches or what have you at the
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: start of the game. So I think the probable pitching
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: unknown nature is actually impacting the lack of totals being
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: hung just as much as the price discovery aspect as well.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: What about the I'm going to ask the super Chalky
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: question here because I think we all are looking at
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: this Team USA roster and going why would I not
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: bet them to be the champion at the end of
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: this Minus one to ten right now is the best
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: number I could find? Is that a good idea? Is
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: there a roster that you think can go toe to toe?
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: I know Dominican is strong, Japan obviously they've got Otani,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: But can anybody stand up with the roster this super
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: team the Team USA has created.
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the Dominicans certainly can. I think when you put
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: best nine versus best nine, they stack up really closely.
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: If you're playing a full season and talking about twenty
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: five man roster depth, USA is clearly better because I
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: think fourteen of their fifteen hitters and almost all of
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: their pitchers project for you know, a WRC plus over
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: one hundred and a fifth under four. When you compare
• 27:30
  Speaker 5: that to the DRS roster, there's a lot more below
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: average hitters on the DR bench. There's a lot more
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: below average pitchers or sub four foo pitchers in the
• 27:39
  Speaker 5: back of their bullpen. But when you're talking about one
• 27:41
  Speaker 5: nine in in game and being able to consolidate for
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: that game, and even with Crisanchez probably going again as
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: Paul Skins in that game, and even if you give
• 27:51
  Speaker 5: the USA home field in that game in what is
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: likely to be the semi final on the left hand
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: side of the bracket, I still would have trouble getting
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: USA above fifty five percent in that one particular matchup.
• 28:00
  Speaker 5: I think these teams are super duper close Offensively. I
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: think the DR has the pitching style to suppress teams
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: in this tournament because they're going to keep the ball
• 28:10
  Speaker 5: on the ground. I think the USA's pitching staff is
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: going to permit a lot more fly balls than the
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: ERA that could turn into home runs, especially against the
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: potent offense like the Dominican Republic. And I think the
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: DR is a better defensive team as well. The other
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: thing I've discussed too in my Futures preview, it's a
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: lot easier for Albert Poolhols's the DR manager, to pick
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: his starting nine. His starting nine is very obvious, his
• 28:30
  Speaker 5: best nine players are very obvious, and frankly, the hierarchy
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: of his bullpen rankings is pretty obvious too. Mark de Rosa,
• 28:38
  Speaker 5: who's managing for Team USA, has a lot more difficult
• 28:41
  Speaker 5: decisions to make in terms of who are his best
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: nine players, whether to pinch hit for dudes, whether to
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: start pinch hitting left these for rightings. He almost is
• 28:49
  Speaker 5: like too many options that it could be paralysis by
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: analysis because he's going to make the wrong decisions just
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: because there's too many options for him to potentially make
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: the wrong decisions with. So it's almost like the US
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: has an embarrassment of riches to the point where it
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: may overload their managers decision making. But really, in a
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: in a one game format, which I ultimately expected to
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: come down to between these teams, it's very close to
• 29:11
  Speaker 5: a coin flip. So we could talk about Japan and
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: why I'm down on Japan, but I'm very much up
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: on the dr in this lineup, and I think it's
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: everybody as good as the team. He says, line up,
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: is there.
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: Anything that you can that you also have had the
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: fact that you have the US is going to have
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: a ton of players that aren't used to not being
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: full time players right that you're going to be calling
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: on to then come in to pinch it right, like.
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: So unfamiliar roles.
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, But.
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: Is there anything that you're looking for with the rosa
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: for like specific like with Howie or is it just
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: like an overall general how he handles things like over
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: the course of the tournament, whereas you would like maybe
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: penalize the US for you know, lack of managed like
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: you know, effective management as far as like how he
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: builds a line up, how when he's pinch hitting. Is
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: there you know, anything in the defense. Is there anything
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: that you're looking for specifically with what he does or
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: is it more just like a general observation over time?
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: How he the team he puts out is going to
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: affect the projection for the game. Because if he plays
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: an outfield with PCA and Buckston next to one another
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: somehow like that's as good of an elite defensive outfield
• 30:15
  Speaker 5: as you could get. Judge in the corner can bring
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: that down a little bit, but you know, I'm assuming
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: they're going to play like Roman Anthony in a corner
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: with Judge have a little bit better a hitter in
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: there than either PCA or Bucks. Then it's just like
• 30:27
  Speaker 5: the impact that that those roster boos are going to
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: have hitting judge second versus third, hitting Bregman fifth versus sixth,
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: and putting rally in front of him. Like, these are
• 30:36
  Speaker 5: decisions that you want to see the opthamal lineup be made.
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: But ultimately the impact on the projection is going to
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: be relatively minimal for one game over the course again
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: of one hundred and sixty two games. It has a
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: little bit more interest to me. That said, like, I
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: don't really factor in managers. I don't really handicap managers
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: a handicap Manager of the Year awards, because that's something
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: I can project out based on voter behavior relative to
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: how teams perform, you know, for an MLB regular season.
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: But I don't really give managers a specific handicap. It's
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: definitely much more anecdotal in terms of how I analyze them.
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: But no, I think the role familiarity is definitely something
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: to think about. You know, there are guys in the
• 31:14
  Speaker 5: DR bench who if you want to bring them in
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: off the bench or accustomed to doing that team USA,
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: all these guys are used to starting the game. You know,
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: if they bring in any starting pitchers and relief, those
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: guys aren't really used to handling that role. If they're
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: bringing in guys who are accustomed to closing and non
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: closing roles, that's not really a spot they're used to
• 31:31
  Speaker 5: coming into. So I do think the role familiarity aspect,
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: while it's not possible to quantify, is certainly something we're
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: thinking about. And again, consolidating everything to a one game
• 31:41
  Speaker 5: scenario just sort of stresses out the favoritism that the
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: USA has in the tournament, to be clear. To be
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: very clear, I modeled all of this out blindly, and
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: my model made the USA exactly minus one ten to
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: win the tournament, which is what they are. If you
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: can get plus money on Team you said when the tournament,
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: take it. But I show a bigger edge on the
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: Nvitican Republic. I make them about plus three fifty five.
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: So anything four to one or better on the DR
• 32:06
  Speaker 5: I think is a good bet right now. You don't
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: have to bet it huge, though, because I'm still expecting
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: them to face Team USA and then from there I'm
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: probably betting them straight up in that game and then
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: maybe even rolling it over against their likely finals opponents.
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: So the DR is the future, but you're probably gonna
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: have a chance to bet them head to head against
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: Team USA in the semi final.
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: Anyway, Sean Cammy Rollo, the one question I've been I'll
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: let Brandon ask maybe about a potential long shot or
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: anyone that could surprise, and we could We obviously want
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: to mention Japan. But is there and maybe that the
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: data on this is just too small a sample size,
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: but is there any impact to this tournament into the
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: MLB regular season for pitchers, for specific players, Is there
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: anything that you're thinking about? It could be awards market
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: and we're going to have an episode with you, Nat
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: and then we'll do team team previews in a few weeks.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: But is there anything like carryover effect or like how
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: it impacts certain teams or players that you're thinking about,
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: or is that a mood.
• 33:13
  Speaker 5: Point Edwin Diaz got hurt in the last WBC, which
• 33:16
  Speaker 5: obviously impacted the Mets chances very specifically in that year
• 33:19
  Speaker 5: because it kind of stretched out their bullpen. So I
• 33:21
  Speaker 5: think any injury news that arises all of this certainly
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: would impact the regular season. That's obvious though, right There
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: has been studies done to try to investigate whether pitchers
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: who throw in the WBC, because that pitches are a
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: little bit higher stressed than they would be in spring
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: training about whether those pitches are likelier to get hurt
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: during the regular season. It seems unclear, but leaning towards no,
• 33:43
  Speaker 5: that there's a negative correlation or no correlation, not a
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: strong correlation to that. So no, I think there's probably
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: minimal takeaways at this point, you know, to the mention
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: of longer shots or cinderellas that I like in this tournament, though,
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: I think it really mostly comes down to the group pairings,
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: because two of them, for me, are in Pool A,
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: and it has a lot to do with the fact
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: that Puerto Rico remains a name brand. I mean, they're
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: a name brand team and they're playing at home, but
• 34:14
  Speaker 5: the players on that roster are not reflective of what
• 34:17
  Speaker 5: you typically see from Puerto Rico, going back to like
• 34:20
  Speaker 5: the two thousand and six WBC. I mean, they're roster's hilarious.
• 34:23
  Speaker 5: It's Pad Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. It's like full of
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: Hall of famers. Really right now, it's just a bunch
• 34:28
  Speaker 5: of very good relievers, including Edwin Diaz Fernando Cruz from
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: the Yankees. But the other teams in that pool, in
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: my opinion. Panama Canada in particular are right there with
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico's odds on to win Pool A
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: I make them about two to one, which means I
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: see value elsewhere. Canada is a massive edge. For me,
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: this is the best team Canada's ever sent. But Canada
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: has never been outside of a pool that had one
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: of Mexico or the USA, let alone both. They avoided
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: both this time around. This is actually the softest draw
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: they've ever had and the best roster they've ever sent.
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: And because of the fact that they've never advanced in
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: five WBCs previously, I think you're getting substantial value on Canada.
• 35:08
  Speaker 5: Panama has a very deep roster and also has a
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: lot of speed on there too. I think they're a
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: very interesting team to potentially eliminate Puerto Rico in advance,
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: and then the other team would be Italy, who I
• 35:17
  Speaker 5: believe is in Pool B along with the United States.
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure they are anyway, but Italy. For me,
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: they've recruited a lot of guys who are major league
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: caliber players or minor league caliber players. But what I
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: like for this tournament in particular, they have a lot
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: of power and they have a lot of major league
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: power going up against minor league pitching. And when you're
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: talking about these guys who have struggled a little bit
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: at the major league level, like Jack Kligly Noon to
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: put the bat on the ball, Well, you send them
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: out there against guys who are minor league caliber pitchers,
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: I think they're going to hit the piss out of
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: the ball. So a team like Italy in a tournament
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: like this, even though I project them as a below
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: average major league offense, they have very loud tools and
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: I think they're gonna make a lot of noise against
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: a bit lesser pitching the USA is pitching, but teams
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: beyond USA who throw below average major league pitching. So yeah,
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: there's a lot of value to be had in this tournament.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: I like all the all three of those teams that
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: I mentioned quite a bit to advance, uh to maybe
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: even win their pools, especially in Canada's case. But there's
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: there's value up and down the board here. And just
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: really excited to watch these games. And like I said,
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: I've mentioned the futures, like the dr future for example,
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: you're gonna have opportunities to bet your opinions on a
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: game to game basis as well. So if I'm high
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: on one team at a pulling low on another, yes,
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: you could bet the future, but I'm also anticipating that
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna be betting that head to head matchup as well.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: On Canada, just one not familiar with the Nailers, right
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: Bow nailor.
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: The Nailers are the main pieces there. They also have
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: Freddie Freeman unfortunately is not on the roster, but Tyler O'Neill, Owen, Casey,
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: Tyler Black, Otto Lopez. Denzel Clark is probably the most
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: important piece that most people are not aware of. Denzel
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: Clark was the center field briefly for the Sacramento As
• 37:02
  Speaker 5: last year. He put up a record setting number of
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: home run robberies and defensive run saved in a very
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: limited amount of playing time. So Denzel Clark might be
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: the best defender in the tournament. They make a lot
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: of contact. The pitching is okay. It's more so that
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: they have length as opposed to high quality arms though,
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: and again in any other pool, I would not be
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: as high in their pitching staff. But against the teams
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: that they're actually playing, Kyle Quantrell, Jamison, ty Mike Soroka,
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: Logan Allen that might be enough to win their group,
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: let alone get through it. So yeah, I think this
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: is a very competent team that Canada is sent.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: Again.
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: I wish Freddie Freeman was there, Nick Pavetta or Matt
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: Brash where they were with them, because then I think
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: it would be a really serious team that you can
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: consider a Tier two contender. But right now I still
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: think they win this group about a third of the time,
• 37:48
  Speaker 5: and you can get as tigh as plus three fifty.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: Let's take a quick peek at the MVP market. Aaron
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Judge is the odds on favorite. He's a team captain
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: for Team USA plus seven to fifty, so Tani is
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: right behind him. If Japan is able to advance deep
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: into the tournament, and certainly if they were to win, He's.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: An auto dub for this award.
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: But you're not expecting that, So I would think Otani
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the name pops out and he'll draw action because he's Otani.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: That seems like a bad bet. Is do you agree
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: with that? And is there somebody that you see, maybe
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: deeper down the board that you think has a shot
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: at MVP.
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: Yeah, really tough thing for me. To handicap. Obviously, because
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: I'm picking the dr to win, I would be looking
• 38:30
  Speaker 5: at guys from that team. I may as well mention,
• 38:32
  Speaker 5: you know, on the Otani piece, not only is Otani
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: not pitching for this team in this tournament, but U Darvish,
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: Roki Sasaki, showtem Naga, all of whom are key contributors
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: for them on the mound in the last tournament. None
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: of them are pitching in this tournament. You're either so
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: Japan's pitching DEPP is much worse than it was last time.
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: Their defensive quality is also awful. There's like four or
• 38:53
  Speaker 5: five guys on the team who are all better served
• 38:55
  Speaker 5: as dhs than they are position players. Otani is actually
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: their best defensive outfielder, probably when you break down by
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: actual skill set, he just is not allowed or permitted
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: to play the outfield. So I'm down on Japan in general.
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: Then is gonna pitch? Does this guy have an alien?
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: I know he has an alien arm is gonna pitch?
• 39:13
  Speaker 5: What's really funny about Yamamoto is they're actually so. Japan
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: lost to Chinese, Taipei or Taiwan in the last Premier
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: twelve tournament, which is basically the non Major League Baseball
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: players playing like a Olympic style of tournament in the
• 39:27
  Speaker 5: off years for the WBC. So the Japanese players were there,
• 39:29
  Speaker 5: their best players were there, the non MLB players. Taiwan
• 39:33
  Speaker 5: actually beat Japan in the final in Tokyo, and Japan
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: fired their manager. They have a new manager and they're starting.
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: They're so mad at Taiwan. They're starting Yamamoto against Taiwan,
• 39:43
  Speaker 5: who is already oh and one at five am on
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: Friday morning because they just want to eliminate Taiwan and
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: get them out of the tournament. That's how mad they
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: are about that Premier twelve result. So Yamamoto is pitching
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: for Japan. They also have the reigning Saurimura Award winner.
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: I believe he was the first one to win the
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: award since Yamamoto won it. If you're unaware, basically the
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: cy young in Japan, you can win it, but if
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: the media does not deem somebody as deserving of the award,
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: you just keep it until somebody else is deserving of it.
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: So Yamamoto I believe, has been the reigning winner or
• 40:12
  Speaker 5: holder of that award for like several years. At this point,
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: they finally deemed somebody else capable of winning that I
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: believe host start against Koreas. So they're still pitching quality
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: on this team. I just don't think it's as deep
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: as it was last time out, and I don't think
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: the lineup for the defense is as good as it
• 40:27
  Speaker 5: was last time either, So that's kind of my takeaway
• 40:29
  Speaker 5: on Japan. I could talk about the splitter stuff too,
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: like Japan's success in the last tournament caused pitch type
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: changes in MLB, you saw splitter usage increase every year,
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: but splitters have also gotten worse at effectiveness every year.
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: And I actually think the players in this tournament are
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: more capable of hitting Japanese pitch types than they were
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: in the last tournament too. So there's a number of
• 40:49
  Speaker 5: reasons why I'm lower on Japan in this tournament and
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: why I do think the champion ultimately comes from the USA,
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: Dominican Republican.
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Is there an MVP that you like in.
• 40:59
  Speaker 5: Shalah wants So? I don't know if you saw Wan
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: Soto take off the batting helmet yesterday and seemed like
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: he had converted his religion, but I just feel like
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: Juan Soto is absolutely locked in at this point right now,
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: the entire team DR looks like they're locked in. I
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: also think they may have sent some juice baseballs down
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: to the DR for their exhibition games against the Tigers
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: because they were just hitting piss missiles to all areas
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: of the field. But yeah, this DR lineup is loaded.
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: I'm expecting Juan Soto, with all the protection around him,
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: to absolutely feast in this tournament. So Wan Soto would
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: be my pick. But it's you know, it's purely from
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: the gut. It's just based off of thinking he's going
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: to mash for a team that I expect when the tournament.
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: Zarella relying on getting excited for Juan Soto. I think
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: he's betting the Mets to win the division, his Mets
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: for the first time in five years. We're setting up
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: setting up for quite the disappointing year for that typical
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: Mets pain. I will say, Brandon, just to Ecker sentiment,
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: MVP is hard to pick. I don't know how the
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: I assume it's voted for by some body or I
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: don't know, but I did just go back and look,
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: it's obviously a tiny sample size, and you have to
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: like the MVP has since two thousand and six. What
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: has there been five winners? Has all come from the
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: the winning team? Like I was trying to think, like,
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: is there a way that someone could win this MVP
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: without winning it all? They probably have to get pretty far.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: But as far as other like a potential long shot,
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: I've just I can't say I handicapped this, but I've
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: just seen on the interwebs a couple people mention then
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: as well as a potential dark orse. Any thoughts there.
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah, So I don't think their pitching is as deep
• 42:38
  Speaker 5: as what they sent last time. They have three arms
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: that I trust. They they have a number of major league,
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: minor league guys. Their lineup is really good. There's some
• 42:46
  Speaker 5: decent speed there as well. I mean, Ronaldacuter Junior wasn't
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: there for the last tournament. He is there for this tournament.
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: So they upgraded the lineup, but I think they've downgraded
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: the pitching staff. I basically tiered out all these teams,
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: you know, Tiers one through five, check Brazil, Tier or
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: Tier five, USA, Japan, Dominican Republic, Tier one. Venezuela is
• 43:05
  Speaker 5: my loan team on Tier two. I think they are
• 43:07
  Speaker 5: a viable champion. I think They're a team who can
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: absolutely win the tournament. The Tier three teams like Korea, Italy,
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: Mexico I think can advance in the tournament. I think
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: they could maybe even surprise and make the finals. I
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: do not expect them to win, though, Venezuela I still
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: think can win this tournament. I think I have them
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: at about six percent, whereas Japan, Italy USA are over
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: eighty percent combined, so there's a share of the tournament
• 43:30
  Speaker 5: where they win. There's absolutely talent there. They have some
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: nice relievers Danny Palencia, but I still think the talent
• 43:39
  Speaker 5: gap between them and a team like the DR is
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: wide enough that I'm actually picking the DR not only
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: to win the tournament, but to win their group as well.
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: Or they're pool I make them about minus one seventy
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: five in Pool D, and I'm lower on Venezuela, So
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: that may indicate that in a head to head matchup
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: DR versus Venezuela, I might be betting the DR as
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: well in that matchup. So yeah, I think they're absolutely
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: viable champion. The lineup is really good. Just the pitching,
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: I don't know if it's quite enough to make it
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: and win the final.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: Make sure, you go and follow all of his action
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: at the Action Network app or a Actionnetwork dot com.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Nobody handicapping the World Baseball Classic quite like this guy,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: so go.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: And tail those.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Sean Zarillo already mentioned to us that he's eyeing a
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: nice plus money play for tomorrow, so sit tight for
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours.
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: Heah your money line. I don't know when they play next.
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: We're coming right.
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: They play Australia at at ten pm on Thursday night,
• 44:34
  Speaker 5: so I think I make that game about plus three
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: fifty for check yea, so we'll see. Maybe I do
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: bet on the checks.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: Look at that handing out dubs on the way out.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode special thanks to our
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: producers Gifford Gold and David Payne, statsound to Evan Abrams
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: helping us in the background. More great content coming up
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: tomorrow with this man right here, Sean Zarillo.
• 44:55
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• 44:55
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• 45:01
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