Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / 2023 Crop Tour Day 2

Transcript

2023 Crop Tour Day 2 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Today is August 8th.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jace with us here, day two of the 2023 Crop Tour.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: You want to tell us kind of where we went through today on the crop tour there, Jace?
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so we started this morning in Maryville, Missouri, and we just kind of wove our way across the north half of the state and made our way through Illinois and ended up just into Indiana.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: Nice.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: And uh so we went through all the stops for Missouri today, so we will have an estimate for you tonight on that.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: And then uh Illinois, we just basically went through right through the center of Illinois on the bottom half, so we still got to loop around on the north side, so we'll uh we won't have a yield estimate for Illinois quite yet until we get through that north side.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: And then um we did end up in Indiana here, haven't taken any any yield checks from that.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_01: So uh pretty good day today.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_01: We'll get to wrap through Indiana and Ohio tomorrow, anyways, but uh what we saw today was a little bit more variable.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: I would say we started off in the northwestern corner of Missouri and things still looked pretty good, pretty much all the way through the central part of the state.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh things looked pretty decent just north of Miami, kind of like in that Saline County area.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Farmers still were optimistic about their current crop that they were experiencing and hadn't seen much of that dryness kind of take hold yet.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: Once we worked our way more towards the northeast corner of the state, we started to see a lot more stress pretty much right in between our seventh and eighth stops there.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: We really started to notice it uh before Monroe City there.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, when I say stress or dryness, it it was a a pretty much uh what I would call a disaster uh for northeastern Missouri.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: So that that area I would say is struggling really hard in a big way.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it's not just a little pocket here or there.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: It was a really long stretch through Missouri.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: But uh when I'm talking about this, obviously, we're talking about 3% of the United States corn crop out of that entire state.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: So uh not quite as big of a chunk uh when it comes down to it, but still uh getting talked about a little bit in that area and some of the significance that's had.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: So I mean our last stop in that state, I really didn't even want to take a yield check for.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: We pulled a couple samples and it was uh not much to be found there, anyways.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: It'll probably get chopped.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: So not much to be uh found in northeast Missouri.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_01: And as we worked into Illinois, we found um, you know, that conditions immediately improved.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_01: Right when you crossed the border, you can could notice uh complete difference in crop conditions.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: It went from brown corn to you know firing up on the bottoms a little bit once you got into Illinois, but you could you could tell the better quality ground, farming practices, whatever the case may have been.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: And then obviously the the drought map shows it really well that the dryness just perfectly stops at the border right now where the uh where the red stops from the drought map.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: So obviously there's some dryness into Illinois, but not nearly as significant as what we saw in Missouri.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: And uh when we got into Illinois, the first couple yield samples we took were subpar, especially for what we're normally seeing out of uh out of the southwestern side of Illinois, which is typically a good crop, and then as we moved towards the center of the state, you know, we started to see improvements a little bit uh through uh when we started moving towards the middle of the state.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_01: Got a little bit less uh brown, not quite as much firing up and not m not as much tip back.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: And when we got into McLean, we still had tip back and we still had the internal stress on the crop that you couldn't really see from the road.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: From the road, the condition still looked really nice, and uh uh from from a drive-by it still looked like a really good crop.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: But once you got out there, uh you did find a different crop.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: And when we got into the eastern side of the state, towards that Champagne area, I would consider most of those stress uh points probably alleviated.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: I thought it was a really, really good crop.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: We pulled out really good samples out of Champagne in that area on the eastern central side of the state, where like McLean looked great, but our samples just weren't what we wanted them to be compared to history.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um the eastern side of the state I thought looked way better, less tip back, just a little bit.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe the top end is taking off a little bit from that earlier dryness concerns, um, but it it's gonna be a lot closer to what potential it could have.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: And when we went through McLean, I was joking to the guys that every time I go through that uh that county, it it rains on me nearly every year, and it did again this year.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: So uh we're receiving some pretty decent rains, but uh through Illinois here, anyways, the the crop on the western side of the state definitely had some stress by the time we got to the eastern side, um it was a pretty consistent crop.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe the top's taken off of it just a little bit, but it was definitely a major improvement by the time we got into Indiana.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: And when I would consider the Missouri State numbers, um it was definitely hurt.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: The northwestern corner isn't gonna make up fully for the northeastern corner.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but the majority of the crop production really is coming from central to west for the major big counties.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: The eastern side is a pretty farm-present area, a lot of uh really nice farms, a lot of um a lot of good countryside, but uh the major production uh areas are in that central that had a really good spot, and then the northwest obviously for the biggest biggest production counties, but uh nonetheless that northwestern side just can't quite make up for the downfall of that giant area in the eastern side of the state.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: So we came up with a 148 for the Missouri County yield, and uh when I start going through some of the numbers, you know, Stone X came out with like a 154, uh ADM had a 132.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't think it was quite that bad, but when I start plugging through, you know, the 161 last year, 160, 171, 158, 140 out of Missouri, I I couldn't break it below the the 18 level.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't quite that rough.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: I thought uh you're gonna get it just below the last couple years.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: Um the 154 just seemed like a stretch with how big of a area that northeastern corner was and how far gone it was.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: But the northwestern still holding in, I thought that could maybe hold it above the bottom end of the range here.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: So that's kind of what we came up with, Missouri.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: I know it's not the biggest uh state for production, anyways, but it's something we like to follow through, and it it really led us into seeing what Illinois was on the western side of the state, and you could really see the progress and changes as we transitioned from state to state.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_01: So really interested to see what we're gonna see out of the rest of Illinois.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: Interested what we're gonna see out of Indiana now that we got into a little bit better crop conditions in Ohio.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_01: So please check in tomorrow for our day three of the crop tour, and we'll give you some more states to come.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, guys.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us at professionaleggmarketing.com.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: It's released every Friday.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: See you next time.