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MNF Slog & Goodbye Daboll | NFL Week 11 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz and
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the crew is back together on this fine Tuesday morning.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Kendra Middleton and the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: is here as well. On today's episode, We've got our
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: plant the Flag game for week eleven. A Thursday night
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: preview that ought to be quick because that game is
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: kind of gross, and of course the main event Evans
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Tuesday primer. Phenomenal night of football last night, a true
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: throwbacks looby knocker, and one that netted me some cheese
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: along the way, both literally and figuratively. Now, Kendra, the
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: touchdown props did let us down last night. You and
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Evan handled things quite well on the Sunday night recap show.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: But what are you feel we.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Learned from that ten to seven slugfest on ABC Slash ESPN.
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: I learned that maybe these bitch ass billionaires are right.
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: YouTube TV was right.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: I didn't need to watch that game last night. They
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: saved me, low key from having to sit down and
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: watch that on my couch.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Instead.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: I made bagels and banana bread and that was a
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: better use of my time than really sitting there intensely
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: watching that game because it was ass.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: I'm a YouTube TV subscriber. I wasn't able to sit
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: back and watch it last night. I'm boycotting the ESPN dispute.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Eventually I will have to give in, Thankfully. I was
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: working a magic game last night, so I wasn't sitting
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: on the couch debating how I want to spend my
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: thirty dollars that ESPN is trying to get from us.
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: But it's twenty dollars and also fun fact, you have
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: to go in to your account and activate it.
• 1:53
  Speaker 4: You don't actually just get it.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: You have to go on your desktop and activate the
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: coupon you.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Well that's but that's just for the They just give
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: you twenty dollars. They're not giving us ESPN. I want
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: the network. I don't want their money.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: Stucky. What'd you take away from last night?
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: Yeah, for I was a great call by you, you
• 2:13
  Speaker 5: got a terrible bet by me. I mean, I don't
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: care about losing a bet. Things happen in a football game,
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: but like always want to get the best of the line,
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: so didn't there. It was probably my worst week of NFL.
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: I also, it was a trade deadline week. I know
• 2:26
  Speaker 5: better than the bet early Sometimes I bet the Falcons
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: plus six could have gotten a six and a half
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: if it was by six in overtime. So just some
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: terrible bets made across the board. But yeah, I thought
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: the Eagles were the slightly better team. I mean, no
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: one did anything. I mean, I can't remember the NFL
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: being this boring in a long long time. That's just
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: the bottom, not not even I'll get to that game
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: in Secon, but just the bottom of the league right
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: now is so bad and it's creating way too many
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: uncompetitive games. But yeah, I thought both offenses were ugly.
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: The Eagles offense still looks broken. The play calling is
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: not creative. They're running it too much. And then the
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: Packers did the same. I get that Jenkins left the game,
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: there was no golden I underestimated the loss of Craft
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: not only in the receiving game, but also what he
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: does in other facets. And then they lost Dobbs at
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: the end, and you're throwing to bo Melton too much.
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: But I thought that the Packers were just poorly coached
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: throughout the whole game. On offense, I mean, you have
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: a fourth and one. It's kind of ironic. This happened
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: against the Eagles, a fourth and one where you false start.
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: You had a long play to Christian Watson which took
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: away a score. They were it was an illegal formation.
• 3:40
  Speaker 5: They had an illegal formation on the fourth down on
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: that to end the game before they ended up getting
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: the ball back. But on that play, I mean the
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: Eagles were calling out the play. They were saying, inside zone.
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: You're running an inside zone fourth and one from shotgun
• 3:55
  Speaker 5: without your starting center in there. Get up and sneak
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: it or do something else and then and then you
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: have you have the floor. Who I love Brandon McManus
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: has done. He's I think he's three of nine from
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: forty plus this year. I get he was like five
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: yards away on the first kick, but he's not making
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: a sixty four yard or outdoors in Lambeau and he's bomb.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: Leg His career is sixty one.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: So yeah, that was probably in Denver in his prime though.
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, and there was there was some win that was
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: apparently going with them, but like it swirls and I
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: thought that was a horrible decision. So yeah, I mean,
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: the thing is with the Packers right now, they have
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: to figure out their offense. So like, what do you
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: do the Eagles that basically were inviting them to run
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: the ball the entire game, and they obliged. There was
• 4:52
  Speaker 5: way too many early down runs and they kind of
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: played right. I get the the no craft and injuries
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: oft receiver, but there were opportunities downfield that they're whenever
• 5:02
  Speaker 5: they did try to throw it and they either didn't
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: make the player didn't do it often enough. But they
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: have to figure out the offense because this defense right
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: now is playing at a super Bowl caliber level. I mean,
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: you look at some of their losses this year. They
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: think they have three losses where they haven't allowed more
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: than two scores on the year. So like, you have
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: to you only allow ten points in that game at home,
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: I don't care about the injuries. You have to you
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: have to find a way to score more than seven
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: points at home. So yeah, they have some soul searching
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: to do. I didn't think Laflour called a great game.
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: So the defense is a super Bowl caliber but the
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: special team certainly is in right now, and then the
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: offense isn't and you're they're gonna have to get more
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: creative without Craft. Now this week, it probably won't hurt them.
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: You're going up against the Giants run defense, so you
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: can get away with all these early down runs most likely.
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: But I mean, if you want to make a real run,
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: this offense has to figure some things out. It will
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: also help when their wide receivers get healthy. But I
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: definitely underestimated the loss of Craft, but was disappointing just
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: coaching effort, I thought from the floor and the Packers
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: all around, and then the Eagles still have questions on offense.
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: But I did think I was really impressed with the
• 6:16
  Speaker 5: Eagles defense been a pretty average unit all year. The
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: addition of Phillips, I thought was big. I thought he
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: played really well, gave him, gave them some extra juice
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: off the edge. So I thought Roseman did a really
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: nice job, which usually does with the addition of Phillips.
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: I think he raises the floor of that defense. So
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: he had big win for the Eagles, is huge in
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: the NFC standings. And then you look like that game
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: was so much more important for the Packers because look
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: at their division, it's going to be an all out
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: warthrount and then look at the Eagles division. I mean,
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: the Commanders have basically quit on the season, and they
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: have I don't even know who they have left on
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: the roster. The Giants just fired their coach. I mean,
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: the Cowboys have a historically bad defense. It's night and
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: day when you compare the NFC East and the NFC North.
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: So that game was a big, big swing for the
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: Packers and gets the Eagles even more breathing room as
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: they try to go after that one seed.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: We're missing the most important, slash insane part of the evening.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: This is the revenge of the touch push game. The
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: Packers are the people who wanted to ban the touch
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: push after the most after the postseason last year, and
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: the Eagles on the touch push go early, don't get
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: the call, and then a couple of plays later, the
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: Packers go early and they call it on the Packers.
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: It's just flat out comedy comedy.
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: Just did the Packers go for a fall start too?
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: But they didn't call up right? I don't understand why
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: they can't see this, Why they can't see it so obvious.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: I mean, the guys in the booth are calling it out.
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: It's the band fans.
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: I'm not even like half paying attention to a game.
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: If there's another game on another screen, I can see it,
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: like not even like, but you're looking right down the line.
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: I don't understand why I can't catch it. That might
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: end up being the downfall of the touchbush. I'm not
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: four banning plays, but if they can't officiate it correctly,
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: and I don't know why, I gotta ask a raf
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: why it seems so obvious that you would be able
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: to Yeah, that's the only thing you're looking for. You're
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: just looking down the line and you're seeing if anyone come.
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: And sometimes when the Eagles do it, it's like so obvious.
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: The guards are like shooting past before the balls even snap.
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: So I don't know why they can't get right. They
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: missed one on both teams.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: It's embarrassing. It's so embarrassing.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: And it's just the fact that, of course it happens
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: in that game, and the fans are catching onto it too,
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: Like you know, it's an issue when the fans are
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: officiating a game better than your zebras, like heard them, goodell,
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: what are we doing?
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Pretty ugly, especially as you mentioned, in a game that
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: is ten to seven. We saw very little offense on
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: both sides to get to our main dish.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: You mentioned it, Stucky.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: The Giants fired their head coach, Brian daball is out.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: They host the Packers this week, so a nice little
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: get right for Green Bay perhaps in store.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: First question is was it the right move?
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Day Ball has started the last three seasons two and eight,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: but they had something cooking with Jackson Dart and they're
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: missing half of their functional players on this team. Do
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: you improve the move, Stucky?
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: I mean yeah, I could see it. It's just the
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: fact that the fact that they kept I mean they
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: had I think I was reading it was a one
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: and sixty thousand chants. If you just go based on
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: the highest the maximum win probability that the Giants had
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: in the Broncos game, the Bears game, and the Cowboys game,
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: it's like a one in sixty thousand chance that they
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: lost all three of those games. A lot of that
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: has to fall back on the coach. I thought kicking
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: the field goal this past week was bad. Yeah, I mean,
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: he's he's always Pagoma, but he's like losing his mind
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: on the sidelines every week. So I can see why
• 10:15
  Speaker 5: a change had to be made. I could see the
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: argument for both sides, but he got dealt a bad
• 10:22
  Speaker 5: hand this year with all the injuries, and uh, he
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: walked into a bad situation. Was coach of the Year
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: his first year. It's pretty wild one went to the playoffs.
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: Daniel Jones.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Two questions. I want to I want to spin off
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: on this for a second. With the day ball stuff.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Jackson Dart has now been in the blue medical tent
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: for concussions twice.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: I wonder how much twice?
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: I thought three times?
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Is it three? Okay?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I mean I have two that are I could be
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: probably imprinted into my head.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: It could be three.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: But we were two very notable, the one this past
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: weekend and then the one where Brian Daball goes.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Get the fuck out here. I don't want Wilson flaying quarterback.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: And then you also have the success of Daniel Jones
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: on the Indianapolis side, and I feel like some of
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: the criticism towards Brian Daball is, you know, you got
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit out.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Of them, but you didn't get this. Kendra.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Do you think either of those has anything to do
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: with Brian Daball getting fired, Daniel Jones success or not
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: keeping your quarterback healthy?
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't say it's the not keeping your quarterback healthy
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: thing or the Daniel Jones thing like for sure, because
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: we see quarterbacks go elsewhere and succeed all the time
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: and their prior coaches not lose their job. For me,
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: I think it's not the keeping your quarterback healthy so
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: much beat it's the way he handled that first potential
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: concussion that he had by going in the tent, letting
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: Scattabo go in there.
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: You can't go twenty and.
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: Forty as a head coach and keep your job despite
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: all of the injuries. I think it was just the
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: easiest time for them to have an out on him.
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: But I wouldn't say it's that you can't keep your
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: quarterback healthy. It's more so just how you handled your
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: quarterback not being healthy and being on professional going in
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: the tent yelling at people. I think it was just
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: more of an out and they needed the reason more
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: than anything else.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: From a betable perspective, the Packers were eight point favorites
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: last night in the look Ahead.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: They're now sitting at seven and a half.
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: I go back to the.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: Firedhead Coe Jangle, you can it's the perfect bounce back
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: spot for Green Bay and I do expect them to
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: absolutely just beat the crap out of them.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: They should.
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: Whatever you might have packed ross, we don't know darts exactly.
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: I want to speak Jamis. I think this is Jamis.
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: I will absolutely be in on this number.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: This is my teaser of the week.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I have the Green Bay Packers down to one and
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: a half, Lions up to seven and a half. It
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: is sort of a it's a Monday Night football response here.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: The Packers very much in a bounce back spot and
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Lions Eagles not much separation there. The Eagles obviously have
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: issues winning by much, so getting the Lions a plus
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: seven and a half would feel like a gift. That
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: would be my way of playing into this. I will
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: not be playing either in a straight bet formula. What
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: about you, stuck.
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: I think the Lions are so much better than the
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: Eagles right now.
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: I mean the Eagles are just they just find ways.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: They find ways that is ugly up the game.
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: What are they sick? They're six and one in one
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: possession games now like they just but they will have
• 13:30
  Speaker 5: a they have a half any time they play a
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: competent opponent, they still have like a half where they
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: don't score which is very concerning. But I think their
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: defense is playing a lot better now coming out of
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: the bye. I will say, and I don't know how
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: much I can take from the Lions game, like that
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: was one of the sad I mean you had commanders,
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: were guys throwing punches getting thrown out, like there was
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: some quid there, which was very not that they have
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: much left on that defense, but.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: It is dan Quinn's calling plays on defense too, so
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: they're making the coaching change. That's always the last line
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: of defense.
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that the Lions did. I I talked
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: about this last week about how the Lion's offense has
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: been in the tank for a month and they made
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: a change at play caller which was noteworthy. I don't know, like, Okay,
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: did that help things or was is the Washington defense
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: that bad? It could be a little bit of both.
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: As far as the Packers, I mean, you do have
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: to look at the INDRT, like who's going to be
• 14:28
  Speaker 5: healthy at wide receiver. She saw Dubs leave, Golden was hurt.
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: There's no craft so like just the the ceiling of
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: the passing attack right now is pretty low. Now they
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: should be able to just line up and run it
• 14:42
  Speaker 5: with Jacob's lot because the Giants run dye is so bad, but.
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: They maybe Michael Parsons cursed. Has anybody considered this?
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: I would, I would consider you for considering this, But yeah,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: I don't.
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: I don't want to back Ross like there is some
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: thing to the new coach, a new coach, and historically
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: it's like a little bit of a bump. It's not overwhelming,
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: and a lot of times that's like, hey, here's our
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: new wrinkles, right, and it's something that the team isn't
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: prepared for. Now you have a team on a short
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: week going on the road, facing team and new coach.
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: But if you have Russell Wilson, like you could, there's
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: a lot of different new wrinkles that you could do
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: with Dart, Like what what are you doing with Russ back?
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: That guy?
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: Please be Jamis Jamis? Yeah, I gives him a better chance.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: I would think, so, I mean, it can't get any worse.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Russ is so washed, but I but maybe with a
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: new coaching staff, that's the way they look. But day
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Ball clearly had something against Jamis ever seeing the field.
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, that is something I watched for sure, because I
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: think I would start Jamis as well. I mean it's
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: just especially as a dog like you just we Russ
• 15:54
  Speaker 5: just doesn't have it anymore.
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: James James the least athletic.
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: He might throw a couple of picks, but he has
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: a better chance of throwing some touchdowns.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: And flank future all week in the locker room and
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: start Jamis.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 16:08
  Speaker 5: He Ross's career ended on that officially, and that Chiefs
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: game when he threw into the tunnel three times.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: I forgot about that. It's like fucking somebody's down their
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: ball with nobody down there. It's just like vintage Ross.
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so that I would I would go Winton too,
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: but that's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: Oh god, I making fun of Russell Wilson is so easy,
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: but it's so fun.
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: Yeah, but I agree with you Brandon that it's a
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: it's a Packers are definitely an intriguing teaser piece.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Let's get to one more news item, and we've got
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Thursday night football to break down as well. Plant the
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: flag coming up, Evans Primer Burrow back at practice. He's
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: not gonna play this week. They take on the Steelers.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: He's eyeing a Turkey Day return. The Bengals do play
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, he wants to play.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: This is wild.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's the greatest bet in the world,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: but perhaps worth the slightest sprinkle. The Bengals right now
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: are one twenty to one to win the AFC. The Ravens,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: who are one game in front of them, are plus
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: six point fifty. Now, obviously, if we're playing prediction mode,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: of which do you expect to win the AFC, if
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: you had to pick one, we'd all pick the Ravens.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: But the price is wildly different. Any interest here as
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: crazy as it is stucky.
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: No, I mean that defense isn't getting fixed, and then
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: you're gonna burrow like we've seen Burrow. It's like I
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: bought some Ravens future and division when at the bottom
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: before the Miami game, and I mean before the Bears game,
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: and luckily Tyler Huntley won that game. But I don't
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: like to see the Barrows potentially coming back for that week.
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: That's when he would have to come back Thanksgiving. Otherwise
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: his season would be over because they just opened his window.
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: But they played the Ravens twice in three weeks. But
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: I mean, like right now, the offense isn't the problem,
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: like how much more can Burrow do? Like it's it's
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: the defense, it's the offensive line. But like they just
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: they've lost games over the past two weeks where they
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: scored thirty eight and forty two points and they played
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: the Jets and the Bears. These aren't like the number
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: one offenses in the league. So I just don't think
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: that they can with that defense. And then you have
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: to remember, I mean, they only they have three wins
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: right now. They're gonna be dogs at the Steelers, they
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: get the Pats, and they're at the Ravens, they're at
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: the Bills or the Ravens. Again, that's gonna be tough
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: because The're gonna have to go on a run like
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: now before Burrow gets back. And then you also have
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: to remember, like in the past, when Burrows come back
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: or I should say just like started the season, he's
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: not this year, but in prior seasons he's usually dealt
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: with an injury and like hasn't played in the preseason
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: or like hasn't been practicing, And then you saw those
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: first couple of games that it takes them some time
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: to get going. So number one, we don't know the
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: rust and we don't know like it will be one
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: hundred percent healthy. So I mean, if you wanted to
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: throw some couchs change on it, I wouldn't.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: It's not like I mean two bucks on that toy.
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: I would. I can't get too mad at you, but
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: it's just the defense. Like I just can't see them
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: ever finding out a way to get enough stops because
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: and like, yeah, Barrow coming back is a boost, it's
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: not like scoring a week.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: And the argument for whether it's them or or anybody
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: where you're getting shorter odds than one that's probably just
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: going to be a waste of your time is that
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the AFC is kind of sketchy this year. I do
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: feel like now would be a good time. That's the
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: wildest bet that you can make among teams that have
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: any sort of opportunity to make it out of the conference.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: But I do think right now is a good chance
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: to look at the board over on DraftKings and see
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: is there somebody that you believe in that you feel
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: like you're getting a long number on Kendra, I'm gonna
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: throw some at you. Tell me which bet you'd be
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: willing to make. This is just a gut reaction doesn't
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: mean that you have to go placing it in the app.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: Jags sixty to one, not expecting a guess on that,
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Chargers eleven to one, Patriots seven to one, the Colts
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: are plus four to twenty five. Do any of those
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: sound intriguing as far as just simply making it out
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: of the conference.
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: Probably the Chargers. I have a Chargers.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Bet like plus one fifty one twenty something like that
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: preseason for them to make the playoffs. So I've really
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: been on the Chargers bandwagon for a minute, and I
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: don't think I'm ready to get off of it yet.
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: My only issue is that justin Herbert in the postseason,
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: absolute joke artist, give clutch geen.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: That's my issue. You can get he can get you there.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: I don't.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: I don't know how far he can get you in
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: the postseason. That's my big issue with him. But probably
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: the Chargers. I get that everybody and their mom loves
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: the Patriots right now, especially up here, like and deservingly
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: so they.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: I can only imagine what sportstock radio is like in
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: your area.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, they deserve all their flowers right now.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: But there's no way they stay this healthy. There's no
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: way this trajectory continues. They just don't have the talent,
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: Like you can stay healthy and that can get you
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: so far. And yes, Drake May is incredible, Like injury
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: come for all of us, and when that happens to them,
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: like they just don't have the depth at all to
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: back up anybody. Like God forbid, one person goes down,
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: They're they're obliterated. I just I can't get behind the
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: Patriots of those options. For me, I have to continue
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: to ride my Chargers bandwagon. Even though Lad McConkie is
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: still in jail.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, he's looked good, but maybe he'll break
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: out this week.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: He's dead to me, he's reached dead loss.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: So we're beyond bet jail. We are now in bet
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: death with lad McConkie.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, me and me and Ladd McConkie were he's he's
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: halfway in the grave.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: For me, it's six feet under mine would be the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Texans at thirty five to one. If you have the
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: best defense in the NFL. Well, I know it's not
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: pretty thirty five to one for the best defense in
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: the AFC. They just shut teams down in the postseason.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: They could get that.
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: I don't even think they're going to make it out
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: of no I mean.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: They'd have to make the playoffs first.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: But we're about to get to the one case I
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: will make for the Patriots, though, just I'll say it
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: is that the Chargers, I just I don't know if
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: they can go on a run with their offensive line
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: the current state of it. We'll see. But the one
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: thing I'll say about the Patriots, like what happened this weekend.
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: It was huge for them and their chances at getting
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: the one seed. And I mean, you got Denver as
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: the Chiefs coming up a couple of times this week
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: or in the next month, and the Patriots now eight
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: and two. They've had one of these schedules, but guess what,
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: their schedule doesn't get much more difficult. The Bills lost,
• 23:07
  Speaker 5: and that there are two games ahead with one game
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: in hand, and there's a good chance that the Patriots
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: are gonna be right there for the one seed, which
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: is obviously massive. And then you get that highly coveted
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: by and right now it's I mean, you look at
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: that game on Sunday from an efficiency standpoint, wasn't great.
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: But every week it's Drake May and that deep ball
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: is like a cheap code for this offense, and he
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: can continues to play extremely well. But like they have
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: the Jets at home this week, and the Bengals, then
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: the Giants.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: And their schedule has been so soft, and it just
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: continues to get softer.
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah it might, but it might save them a game,
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: and it might give them home field, and.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: They do have some impressive wins, and beating the Bucks
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: is nothing to sneeze at.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: They got to the win again, you have to.
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: Give them credit. But yeah, it's May is May has
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: played really well and that this weekend did a lot
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: for their potential to get that one seat and give
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: them breathing room in the division as well.
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: Are we buying his MVP odds?
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: I know that at the beginning of the season they're
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: like eighty or ninety to one or something outrageous like that,
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: And now he's I don't know if it's him or
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: Stafford right now, probably him.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: Stafford is the favorite as it stands right now, I
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: would just lay a bet on Jonathan Taylor and hope
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: that the narrative gets so loud around him that we
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: actually go anti quarterback here as far as the number goes.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I want to see it.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: I just want to I wanted to not be a
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: quarterback award.
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: I just if they didn't give it a saque last year,
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: it's hard for me to get there in my brain.
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Maybe maybe maybe that shook uh, maybe that shook some
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: people into thinking maybe we should get start giving this
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: to a running back. About to take a look at
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night football? Should we be laying it with the
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: New England Patriots. But first a word from our very
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: own Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Draftking Sports Book and
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: in partnership with DraftKings. Favorites listeners get a great offer
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: right now.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: New customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: dollars back in bonus bet if your bet wins, and
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: three months of NBA League Pass to new customers to
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: get started to use promo code Favorites when signing up
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: with DraftKings. That's promo Code Favorites when signing up with
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: DraftKings for three months of NBA League Pass and three
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins,
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: the crown.
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: Is yours stuck.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Before we get the Thursday Night Football. You are our
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: resident maction expert a couple of games tonight, give us
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: a pick. Explain the handicap in NFL terms.
• 25:37
  Speaker 6: For tonight, we can go Western Michigan.
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: I don't know if if there's still any dog prices
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: out there against Ohio. Ohio is they're kind of like
• 25:59
  Speaker 5: the current state of the Broncos in a way, and
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: they've had some fortunate wins. They should have lost last
• 26:05
  Speaker 5: week Western Michigan at home, coming off of bye. It's
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: a good spot. They had the better defense, and after
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: what the mac refs did to my of Ohio last week,
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: hopefully Ohio has some something coming to them this week.
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I like the Western Michigan defense, and then
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: their offense isn't great, but I think they can run
• 26:28
  Speaker 5: the ball here. It's a very weak Ohio defense, and
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: I think they're a better team overall at home. So
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: we can go with the Broncos. No, and yeah, we're
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: going with the Broncos against the college Broncos.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: Are you serious? You gotta love it? And Sucky got
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: ahead of it there.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: You got a plus one in the app now sitting
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: at minus one and a half over on DraftKings. If
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: you need to play for Tuesday Night Jets at Patriots.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night Patriots favored by eleven and a half total,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: sitting at forty three. Don't look now, but the Jets
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: are riding a two game winning streak. Patriots just slightly better.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: They've won seven in a row. The Patriots now have
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: wins over the Bucks and the Bills, as we mentioned,
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: but they are riding the good fortune of one of
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: the easiest schedules in the NFL, and that's not going
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: to change here. We will give them credit though, Not
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: only do they have a couple of impressive wins seven
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: and three against the spread, so they're not just winning
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: these games, they are covering in the process. Garrett Wilson
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: is likely out three to four weeks, so that's even
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: more of a reason to not like the New York
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Jets here. New England is top ten and EPA per
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: play on offense. On defense, they're allowing three point six
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: yards per carry. All the Jets want to do is
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: run the football. This should be a smash spot for
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the New England Patriots. If it wasn't for the fact
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: that Thursday Night football is weird, I would probably lay
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: it with New England I might get there. To me,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: it's Pats or pass backing it or benching it.
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: What do you say, Kendra, I'm definitely beenching it.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: I want nothing to do with this game whatsoever. I
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: the Patriots in my crew. I can't.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: I can't get there, Like I can't bet another cent
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: on the Patriots this year. They just have absolutely decimated me.
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: Every time I think they're gonna fall apart, they just somehow.
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: Get better and better. I don't want anything to do
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: with the Patriots, but I will say the Jets have
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: been looking sneaky good, and it's a short week.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: I still don't think the Jets are a good football team,
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: but I think that they're making decisions to become a
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: better football team. I just can't doubt this Patriots team anymore.
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: They've really, they've really shoved it down my throat. I
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to say anymore. I can't. I
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: was wrong, and that's okay.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: That's good. Do you gotta take your lumps, Stucky?
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: Are you gonna roll with the dirty, disgusting dog in
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: this game?
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: Or enough? Completely?
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think that there might be a chance
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: to fade the paths sometime coming up this is not
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: the spot in my opinion. I mean number one, just historically,
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: these first time head coaches in their first Thursday game
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: have been really poor against the spread. I don't know
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: if Evan has that, but you know, because it's like
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: unique prep and they're not used to doing that, and
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: a lot of times their teams have come out and
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: gotten smacked. But I don't see how, like what is
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: the path for they just got to hope that this
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: game is weird or like you're down seventeen, you get
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: a backdoor touchdown. But the Jets, like you said, they
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: can't throw the ball. I mean they just won a
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: game where fields went six to eleven for fifty yards.
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: They beat the Browns because they had two kick return
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: They had a kick return and a punt return for
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: a touchdown. It's the only reason they won that game.
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: And then they beat the historically bad Bengals defense. I mean,
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: anyone can move the ball and them they were able
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: to run the ball there. Well, the Patriots run defense
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: is really good. Where you can get them a bit
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: is through the air, but it's not the Jets, especially
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: without Wilson, So I don't know how they move the
• 29:53
  Speaker 5: ball here and it's not like this Jets defense, which
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: is now without two of its best players, probably not
• 30:01
  Speaker 5: gonna I said this last week, it's probably not gonna
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: hurt you against the Browns offense outdoors. But even the Browns,
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: I mean they put up twenty that's a lot for
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: the Browns. The Browns usually don't get past seventeen. So
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: I mean Gabriel threw for one to seventy two touchdowns
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: and they ran for five yards for rush, like, but
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: this is the Patriots offense is on another level. So yeah,
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know how. I don't love like laying big
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: numbers in the NFL like this, but here it's all
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: signs going to the Patriots. I could never bet the
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: Jets here. But do you like fourteen and a half?
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: This?
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: This does feel like an SEC team taking on Wafford
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: or something like that.
• 30:45
  Speaker 5: Yeah, like they just the Pats. Rundy is legit, and
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: even though.
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: It's divisional, you still feel like you need fourteen and
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: a half.
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, just the matchup wise, you got Glenn early, you
• 30:58
  Speaker 5: don't have Wilson anymore, You've traded two of your best defenders.
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: I just don't see the path, Like it's just a
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: terrible matchup for the Jets on both sides of the ball.
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: And this is when you'll really miss Sauce Gardner in
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: this particular matchup. And I mean the Patriots, however they
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: want to move the ball, probably can. Also, the Jets
• 31:23
  Speaker 5: had other defensive injuries that I don't know who's gonna
• 31:26
  Speaker 5: play on a short week, but they had a bunch
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: of guys get banged up on the defensive line at linebacker.
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: One of their new starting cornerbacks got left the game.
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I just how do the Jets move the
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: ball here? And then I don't know how they get
• 31:39
  Speaker 5: enough stops to keep this close without just like they're
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: gonna have to get some turn now. The one thing
• 31:44
  Speaker 5: that could could change it is the Jets are like
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: then this is just one football game stuff. But the
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: Jets are probably the most overdue team in the history
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: of the NFL to get like takeaways, so like flukey
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: takeaways that could keep them in it. I think on
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: the season, like, do they even have an interception yet?
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: I believe they don't have an interception.
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: That would be a crazy stat they don't.
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: Have an interception.
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: What are the odds for them to pick off Drake
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: May and.
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: They're minus minus ten and turnovers. Uh, don't have an
• 32:19
  Speaker 5: interception on the season. It's week eleven, like, so that's
• 32:25
  Speaker 5: their path, Like they're gonna have to get some overdue
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: turnover regression. And but because I don't know how to
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: move the ball consistently.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: That might be my play in our barlay on Thursdays
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: for the Jets to pick off Drake.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: May plus one thirty six. Please don't do that to us.
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: That's it.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Yep, damn, It's like the books are ready for you.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Let's plant our flag presented by DraftKings.
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: The crown is yours.
• 32:53
  Speaker 6: Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thick Kendra
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: get us started.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: What are you looking at?
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: I had two options for this.
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: I didn't know if either of you would be thinking
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: the same thing as me. I only have two bets
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: in for the week so far. I'm probably only gonna
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: put in four or so, so half my bets are
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: already in.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: But I have been discipline.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: By the way Kendrick does this every single week, I've
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: started seeing your betting patterns.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Kendrew's red hot.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: By the way, So for all of you on YouTube
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: that talks shit every week, stick it because she's hotter
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: than all of us.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: So job well done by you.
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: But it's discipline.
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: I envy your discipline because I feel like I have
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: a bloated sheet every single week.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: But anyway, what are they joking at?
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: I think I'm going to go with the Commanders getting
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: two and a half points against the Dolphins.
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: This Dolphins team is just so us. I don't know where.
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: I guess they got a little bit of the GM bump.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: But this Commander's team is bad, but they're not as
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: bad as this Dolphins team. Even with the injuries the Dolphins,
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: I just keep expecting week after week for them to
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: go belly up and throw the season away because, like
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: I said last week, they didn't do anything to make
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: themselves better this season or next season. They didn't sell off,
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: they didn't fire the coach, they haven't benched anybody. I
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: guess you could maybe call it the Tyreek hillbump because
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: he's no longer a cancer on the field while he's
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: running around out there being a jackass. But still this
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: Commander's team getting points. Don't care that it's in Miami.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: They just got beat what forty four to twenty two? Yeah,
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: oh yeah, it is in Madrid. This is the Madrid game.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: But still regardless, neutral field, and you're gonna give me
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: two and a half points?
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: Even better, let's get after it. I like it.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the I was looking at the Commanders as possible teaser,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: like getting them up to eight and a half. I
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: do not trust the Dolphins to string together performances like this,
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: especially when they're not playing the underdog role. I feel
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: like it would be Commanders or pass for me. I
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: don't like these international games. This is our last one,
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: by the way, so we don't have to worry about
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: that moving forward once we're done with Commanders and Dolphins.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Okay, see the.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: Terry McLaurin jokes about him wanting to just go for
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: a vacation, Yeah.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Well I would.
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he's gonna enjoy himself in Spain. He doesn't
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: have to worry about playing a football game.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: Because he's in Spain without the Yes, baby stuck you
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: what about you?
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: What a miserable game?
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: By the way, hopeful we never give the overseas crowd.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Good game. So well, Colts Falcons was decent.
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: They deserve it. Stop taking home games away. I hate
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: I hate the abroad crap.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: I feel like Napoleon Dynamite when I'm just like, no,
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: go find your own Go find your own league, Go
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: find your own teams.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Stop taking home games away.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: It takes away revenue, it takes away like jobs from
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: local people.
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: I hate this crap abroad. Leave me alone. I don't
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: care if I sound walk.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go with the Vikings minus
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: three at home. I believe it'still minus three. I like
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: this Bears team has been like the number one of
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: their defense is still horrendous, and especially about Gordon and Johnson.
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: They can't stop the run. They can't have you can't
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: really do anything. And at this Vikings defense, they will
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: get pressure, they will fluster Williams into mistakes. I just
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: think this is a good spot to sell on the Bears.
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: And if you look at the Bears, their wins, so
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: their last, let's just look at their last, all their wins.
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: This year, they beat the Cowboys, it's a really good
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: spot at home. Ceedee Lamb went down in that game.
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: Then they beat the Raiders by one. I mean they
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: got out gained by I don't know, two hundred yards
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: three yards per play in that game, they beat the
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: Commanders by one, got a couple of fumbles in that game.
• 36:34
  Speaker 5: We know how bad the Commanders have been this year.
• 36:36
  Speaker 5: They beat the Saints, they lost to the Ravens with
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: Tyler Huntley. Then they beat the Bengals on a walk off,
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: and they easily should have lost to the Bengals. Then
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: they beat the Giants. Probably should have lost that game,
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: neither the crazy comeback or three percent win probabilies. This
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: team has played such an easy schedule and then every
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: week someone gets hurt like they've been playing so many
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: backup quarterback like Dark gets hurt. Last week they get
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: to play Tyler Huntley. They played the Bengals with obviously
• 37:05
  Speaker 5: with Burrow not there. They played the Saints when you
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: know Rattler, who's since been benched. So I mean, look
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: at this team's schedule. I mean, since starting zero to two,
• 37:14
  Speaker 5: they have played nothing but clowns. For lack of better word,
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, look thinking about it, Raiders, Cowboys, Commanders, Saints, Bengals, Giants,
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: and then you know they got blown out by the
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: Ravens when even without Lamar. So I think this is
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: a good spot to sell the Bears Id McCarthy, even
• 37:36
  Speaker 5: McCarthy with he's still doesn't look great. But this Bears defense,
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, if the Vikings want to run it, they
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: should be able to do that. There's gonna be easy completions,
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: and I think that the Vikings can create enough chaos
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: with Caleb running around. I mean, Kayla's been doing this
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: against their run game has been very good. I'll give
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: them that, But you just watch the Bears offense with
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: kleb on like passing downs. It's like and he's been
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: playing horrendous defenses for two months. He's just bailing out
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: of the pocket like it's almost the same play. He'll
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: snap it and then he's created some big plays, some
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: explosive plays credits in, but again, look at the quality
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: of defenses and then he just bails one to eighty
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: and then he's running around for his life. So he's
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: not been very efficient. He's been explosive, but I'm not
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: sure that can work in Minnesota against this floor as defense.
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: So I think there's gonna be probably a lot of
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: negative plays. And this is a Bears defense that is
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: a lot worse than some might think because they just
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: benefited from so many turnovers and if you remove those,
• 38:38
  Speaker 5: this is a really really poor unit due to the injuries.
• 38:41
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I like the Vikings to bounce back. We
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: just said the Jets that the Bears are the anti Jets.
• 38:47
  Speaker 5: The Jets are minus ten in turnovers. The Bears are
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: plus fourteen, which is crazy.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Bears are the only team that six and three are
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: better that has a negative point differential on the season.
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think it's a good spot to get.
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: It's like a nice comfortable game for McCarthy. And the
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: Bears just don't have anyone who can cover the Vikings,
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: and I think Floras and that defense will coax Williams
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: into enough mistakes and negative plays that they can get
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: it done at home. So I think this is just
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: a little cheap, pretty good spot for the Vikings in
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: like close to a must win for their season in
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: that division.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: I am gonna go with the Texans minus seven.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: You can get this at minus one.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Fifteen versus the Tennessee Titans under our local Titans back
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: or week after week. There are other bets that I
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: like out there. Actually already have about four in the
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: app right now, but.
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: This is not with the Texans and their fans. That's all.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: Hih that's true. Okay, so this isn't about Tennessee. This
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: is about Houston.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: The line indicates that Stroud is not playing, so if
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: he does, we are getting ahead of the number in
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: a pretty drastic way. I don't usually like to tempt
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: fate with these injuries, especially with something as unknowable as
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: a concussion. But honestly, if I'm sitting there with a
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: minus seven on Sunday with Davis Mills as the quarterback,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I mean I'm just not gonna be that perturbed by it.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: This Texans defense is elite. The Titans can't move the football.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: They've turned the ball over thirteen times this year. Texans
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: defense fourth in takeaways, number one in success rate, facing
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: a team that's thirty second on the offensive side.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Quarterback be damned.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: This is about the league's top defense playing the league's
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: worst offense. Seven points is fair, and I will take
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: my lumps if CJ. Stroud is announced as out again.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Our recap four they plant the flag games presented by
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: DraftKings Commanders plus two and a half against the Dolphins,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Vikings minus three facing the Chicago Bears and Texans minus
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: seven against the Tennessee Titans. Now for the main events,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: no betting week can start without it. It is the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Evan, welcome to this show.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Great job on Sunday night. What are the odds and
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: trends we need to be aware of before we fire away?
• 41:07
  Speaker 7: Well, first of all, thank you Brandon.
• 41:10
  Speaker 8: In our chat right now, someone said Davis is Mills's
• 41:12
  Speaker 8: mom wouldn't lay seven with him on the road. I
• 41:14
  Speaker 8: think that makes a ton of sense based off of
• 41:16
  Speaker 8: the handicap we just heard. But to answer some of
• 41:18
  Speaker 8: the questions stuck. I'm going to look into this further,
• 41:21
  Speaker 8: but I just could quickly aquery looked like rookie head coaches.
• 41:24
  Speaker 8: Thursday Night football is underdog six and thirty five straight
• 41:28
  Speaker 8: up last decade. So I loved some stuff there, but
• 41:31
  Speaker 8: really really terrible. The other one that's real good for
• 41:35
  Speaker 8: the Thursday night game. You mentioned no interceptions. I believe
• 41:39
  Speaker 8: Jets are just the second team since nineteen forty no
• 41:42
  Speaker 8: interceptions through nine games twenty seventeen Raiders.
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: Also, I remember that question.
• 41:48
  Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely ridiculous.
• 41:50
  Speaker 8: So yes, plus one thirty five terrible value, but easy bet.
• 41:53
  Speaker 8: I can't wait, Patriots remaining strength to schedule also absolutely ridiculous.
• 41:58
  Speaker 7: You guys talked about it.
• 42:00
  Speaker 8: Thirty four percent win percentage for remaining teams, Jets twice,
• 42:04
  Speaker 8: the Giants and the Dolphins still to come up for them.
• 42:07
  Speaker 7: Pretty crazy.
• 42:08
  Speaker 8: In terms of other stories, just this week, I mean
• 42:10
  Speaker 8: the MVP race right now, you've got six players at
• 42:13
  Speaker 8: ten to one or shorter. Just for reference, we haven't
• 42:16
  Speaker 8: seen that number in like a decade in terms of
• 42:18
  Speaker 8: total players ten to one or shorter entering week eleven.
• 42:21
  Speaker 8: So MVP rice absolutely awesome right now. We discussed it
• 42:25
  Speaker 8: on Sunday night, but really really fun. A lot of
• 42:28
  Speaker 8: people will talk about the Giants after firing Dable. Obviously
• 42:33
  Speaker 8: Callahan gets fired. They laid the egg against Vrabel and
• 42:36
  Speaker 8: the Patriots. But seven and a half decent number. That'd
• 42:39
  Speaker 8: be the biggest upset for an in season firing since
• 42:43
  Speaker 8: Todd Haley Romeo Crenell twenty eleven.
• 42:46
  Speaker 7: With the Chiefs.
• 42:46
  Speaker 8: So this would be a big number for the Giants
• 42:49
  Speaker 8: to come through this week. We've talked about like the
• 42:52
  Speaker 8: small bump, but yes, again very small.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: I read where Matt Stafford this is the first time
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: in his long career that he's ever been the it's
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: one favorite to be the MVP.
• 43:02
  Speaker 7: Yeah, any point, I think that would make sense.
• 43:04
  Speaker 8: I mean, also, this is the biggest week of Stafford's career,
• 43:07
  Speaker 8: so he's MVP favorite, and I believe for the first
• 43:11
  Speaker 8: time ever he can go above five hundred for his career,
• 43:14
  Speaker 8: because I believe he's five hundred on the dot right
• 43:16
  Speaker 8: now for the first time like ever in his career
• 43:19
  Speaker 8: because of all the Lillian's years.
• 43:21
  Speaker 7: So this is a big week for his career.
• 43:23
  Speaker 8: The other one that's really fun in terms of just
• 43:26
  Speaker 8: overall numbers this week, the Bucks off a loss have
• 43:30
  Speaker 8: been really, really good.
• 43:31
  Speaker 7: We've talked a lot about the.
• 43:32
  Speaker 8: Lions in that situation, but with Baker thirteen and four
• 43:36
  Speaker 8: against the spread, and then when you just go back
• 43:37
  Speaker 8: to the Rams, he's fifteen and four. He's covered six
• 43:40
  Speaker 8: in a row off a loss. Obviously big number there
• 43:43
  Speaker 8: with the Bills this week, but interesting nonetheless.
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: Talk about a lay in an egg Yeah, unreal hungover.
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't know if they were out all
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: night in Miami or just that emotional letdown in the
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: humidity after the Chiefs win. But man, today look just
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: come depletely days than a fog from the very beginning
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: of that game. So yeah, that becomes a much more
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: important game for both teams off of a loss, and
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: we'll see if the Bills bounce back at home where
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: they rarely rarely ever you lose, Just to.
• 44:17
  Speaker 7: Be just to be clear, go into the elbow room.
• 44:19
  Speaker 8: Definitely not going to come back to haunt Mike McDonald
• 44:22
  Speaker 8: in the future. There's no way that's going to come
• 44:23
  Speaker 8: back to get him.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Dolphins closes an eight point eight
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdog, they end up winning by seventeen,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: and now they're favored in the following week. I imagine
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: that the trends are not in Miami's favor to cover
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: the spread again.
• 44:38
  Speaker 7: Yeah, most likely not. I'll have some stuff in the
• 44:40
  Speaker 7: primer on that.
• 44:41
  Speaker 8: But yeah, it's a bad spot off of a big upset,
• 44:44
  Speaker 8: especially when you do a drive by to the opponent's bar.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: I love it. I love the saltiness.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: And then last thing I have for you, You had a
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: great one on Sunday about the uniqueness of the Rams
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: and the Seahawks. How good these teams have been at
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: not just winning, but covering the spread as well. Does
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: that bode favor for either side here Seahawks coming in
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: as a two and a half point dog.
• 45:07
  Speaker 8: So I'll give you a teaser to read the primer
• 45:09
  Speaker 8: to actually get the angle. But the thing I love
• 45:12
  Speaker 8: the best is that both teams seventy seven plus percent
• 45:15
  Speaker 8: win percentage straight up and against the spread. We haven't
• 45:18
  Speaker 8: seen a game week ten or later. We're both teams
• 45:21
  Speaker 8: seventy seven percent straight up and ats face off in
• 45:25
  Speaker 8: I can even find I've seen some seventy fives where
• 45:28
  Speaker 8: both teams we're winning three quarters of games. But this
• 45:31
  Speaker 8: is a very very unique matchup that's like forty years
• 45:34
  Speaker 8: in the making. So from like a covering and winning
• 45:37
  Speaker 8: and same division, we've had like three or four weeks
• 45:40
  Speaker 8: of some great games.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: And that'll do it for today's episode special thanks to
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: our producers David Paine and Gifford Gold, our stats guy.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Go check out the primer from Evan Abrams. The Favorites
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: will return next Thursday right here on the Action Network
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: YouTube page when we talk Week eleven best bets.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Two days away.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: If we hand out our two Kings and a Queen parlay,
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: we'll see you right here on The Favorites presented by
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Draft Kings four album.
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 46:18
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• 46:21
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