Latest / The Front / Vance’s rage, Trump’s appeasement: now what for Ukraine?

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Vance’s rage, Trump’s appeasement: now what for Ukraine? · The Front

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: It's Monday, March three, twenty twenty five. China's ambassador to
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  Speaker 1: Australia has warned Anthony Albanezi that banning Chinese artificial intelligence
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: app deep Seek is an overstretch that could undermine trade
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  Speaker 1: and technological progress. That's after deep Seek was banned from
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  Speaker 1: all Commonwealth government devices. School Kids later this month will
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: celebrate Harmony Day with multicultural food and costumes, but the
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Australian Human Rights Commission says the day should be a protest,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: not a celebration, and the name Harmony Day hides Australia's
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: systemic racism. Those stories are live now at the Australian
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  Speaker 1: dot com dot au A meeting with king calls and
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  Speaker 1: new pledges of support. Europe is rolling out the red
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  Speaker 1: carpet for Ukraine's President volodim I Zelenski after a stunning
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  Speaker 1: shouting match inside the Oval Office between Zelenski, US President
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Vice President j. D. Vance. It's completely
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  Speaker 1: shaken the world's understanding of how the Ukraine Russia war
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  Speaker 1: can possibly end in peace. Instead of signing a deal
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  Speaker 1: about joint exploration of rare earths like lithium and titanium.
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  Speaker 1: Zelensky left the White House in shock. Today I'm joined
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  Speaker 1: by a strategic analyst and The Australian's columnist Peter Jennings
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  Speaker 1: to understand how things went so wrong and what happens now.
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  Speaker 2: We're not in a good position. You don't have the
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  Speaker 2: cards right now with us. You start having cards right now,
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  Speaker 2: you're gambling with billions of people.
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  Speaker 3: Think you're gambling with world War three, with World War three,
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  Speaker 3: and what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country,
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  Speaker 3: this country.
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  Speaker 2: It's back to you far more than a lot of
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  Speaker 2: people said they should have have.
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  Speaker 4: You said thank you once that.
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  Speaker 1: This is how it ended up, but this is how
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  Speaker 1: it began. Like all the media calls in the Oval Office.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Well thank you very much. It's an honor to have
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: President Zelensky of Ukraine.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: President Donald Trump and a foreign leader in this case
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  Speaker 1: Vorde Mizelenski sat side by side in pale yellow jackyard armchairs.
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  Speaker 2: And we have something that is a very fair deal
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  Speaker 2: and we look forward to getting in and dig in,
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  Speaker 2: dig in, digging and work in and getting some of
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  Speaker 2: the rare earth. But it means we're going to be
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: inside and it's a big commitment from the United States,
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  Speaker 2: and we appreciate working with you very much.
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  Speaker 1: It was warm.
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  Speaker 5: Thanks so much, miss Thank you for invitation, and really
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  Speaker 5: I hope that this document, first document, will be first
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  Speaker 5: step to real security guarantees for Ukraine, our people, our children.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It was moving this.
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  Speaker 5: Crazy Russian that they stolen twenty thousands of children, Ukrainian children,
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  Speaker 5: they changed their names and now they're in Russia.
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  Speaker 6: We want to bring them back.
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  Speaker 1: It was funny with some lighthearted banter about Europe.
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  Speaker 5: They're our friends and they are our very supportive partners.
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  Speaker 5: They really gave a lot spread they really.
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  Speaker 2: They did, but they gave much less. No much less, no, no,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: okay okay.
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  Speaker 1: And it looked to be the moment where Zelenski re
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: entered the peace process after he last week expressed fears
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  Speaker 1: he was being excluded from talks between the US and RuSHA.
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  Speaker 2: That's what I do my whole life. That's what I
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  Speaker 2: do is make deals. I'm in the middle of a mess,
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  Speaker 2: because this is a real mess. It's a very dangerous one.
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  Speaker 2: If this doesn't get solved now, it's not going to
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  Speaker 2: get solved for a long time, So I hope we're
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: going to I hope we're going to get it.
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  Speaker 1: So they were about to sign a deal and have lunch,
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  Speaker 1: and then J. D. Evans, sitting beside Trump chimed in.
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  Speaker 4: For four years of the United States of America, we
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: had a president who stood up at press conferences and
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  Speaker 4: talked tough about Vladimir Putin, and then Putin invaded Ukraine
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: and destroyed a significant chunk of the country. The path
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  Speaker 4: to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging
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  Speaker 4: in diplomacy. We tried the pathway of Joe Biden, of
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  Speaker 4: thumping our chest and pretending that the President of the
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: United States's words mattered more than the President of the
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  Speaker 4: United States's actions. What makes America a good country is
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  Speaker 4: America engaging in diplomacy.
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  Speaker 1: That triggered a response from Zelensky.
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  Speaker 6: Can I ask you sure?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Zelenski said he signed a ceasefire with Vladimir Putin in
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  Speaker 1: twenty nineteen and that Putin, whom he called a terrorist,
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  Speaker 1: just ignored it.
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  Speaker 5: What kind of diplomacy? Ggus became bald. What what do
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  Speaker 5: you mean?
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  Speaker 4: I'm talking about the kind of diplomacy that's going to
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  Speaker 4: end the destruction of your country. But mister President, mister President,
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  Speaker 4: with respect, I think it's disrespectful for you to come
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  Speaker 4: into the Oval Office to try to litigate this in
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  Speaker 4: front of the American media. Right now, you guys are
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because
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  Speaker 4: you have manpower problems. You should be thanking the President
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  Speaker 4: for trying to bring it into this conulent.
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  Speaker 6: I found it quote shocking.
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  Speaker 1: Peter Jennings is a director of Strategic Analysis Australia and
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: a former senior defense official. He also writes columns in
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  Speaker 1: The Australian.
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  Speaker 6: It was a pretty sad day for America and for
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  Speaker 6: America's allies. What should have been a fairly plowed meeting
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  Speaker 6: and greeting in front of the media was in some
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  Speaker 6: respects misread by President Zelensky of Ukraine. I think he
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  Speaker 6: perhaps didn't quite understand the purpose of what that particular
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  Speaker 6: meeting was going to be, and so he genuinely seemed
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  Speaker 6: to think that what he was there to do was
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  Speaker 6: to be an equal expressing his own opinion in discussion
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  Speaker 6: with the President, and that was obviously not Trump's expectations
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  Speaker 6: or the media's or JD. Vance's and so what I
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  Speaker 6: think we're seeing is really a failure to pre plan
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  Speaker 6: and work through these types of encounters in ways that
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  Speaker 6: would normally happen at the top level of politics in
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  Speaker 6: most countries.
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  Speaker 5: Into this, Carl, I've into Ukraine that you say, what
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  Speaker 5: problems do we have? I have been to come one.
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  Speaker 4: I actually I've actually watched and seen the stories, and
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  Speaker 4: I know what happens is you bring people, you bring
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  Speaker 4: them on a propaganda tour. Mister President, do you disagree
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  Speaker 4: that you've had problems on bringing people in your military
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  Speaker 4: have and do you think I respect for Lance to
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  Speaker 4: come to the Oval Office of the United States of
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  Speaker 4: America an attack administration that is trying to prevent the
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  Speaker 4: destruction of your Countryctom.
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  Speaker 6: Vance just seemed to blow his stack. He clearly did
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  Speaker 6: not like what he took to be Zelensky kind of
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  Speaker 6: rudely pushing back against the President on some issues, mostly
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  Speaker 6: around security guarantees and how far one could trust putin.
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  Speaker 6: This was very definitely an area of discussion that should
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  Speaker 6: have been happening behind closed doors. I'm surprised that in
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  Speaker 6: getting to this point, Zelensky had not had the opportunity
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  Speaker 6: to have this conversation with Trump privately to get some
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  Speaker 6: of those views out of his system. I mean, it's
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  Speaker 6: hardly surprising that the leader of Ukraine feels that one
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  Speaker 6: can't trust the Russians after losing hundreds of thousands of
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  Speaker 6: Ukrainians killed, after seeing his city's bomb civilians killed, children abducted,
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  Speaker 6: all all of those things. To imagine that Zelenski is
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: just going to sit there meekly in the Oval office
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  Speaker 6: and agree that it's time to stop the killing and
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  Speaker 6: we mistare now join hands, I think was just an
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  Speaker 6: unacceptable ask. But nevertheless, Vance seemed to take the view
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  Speaker 6: that what was required of Zelenski was that he accept
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  Speaker 6: the president's view and then they'd have a nice lunch
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  Speaker 6: and sign this agreement on as Trump kept calling it
• 8:24
  Speaker 6: raw Earth's about which the rest of us know is
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  Speaker 6: rare earths. I thought that it was extremely intemperate of
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  Speaker 6: the vice president to do that. He effectively derailed the conversation.
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  Speaker 6: I've seen since Claire there's a number of people claiming
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  Speaker 6: quite a lot claiming that somehow this is a masterful
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  Speaker 6: stroke of Trump's strategy. I don't see that. I think
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  Speaker 6: what Trump was actually wanting to do was to get
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  Speaker 6: an agreement signed with Zelenski which would enable the President
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  Speaker 6: to claim that they were moving towards peace in Ukraine,
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  Speaker 6: and effectively, more than anyone else, it was the Vice
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  Speaker 6: president which got in the way of that outcome. So
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  Speaker 6: there's an issue that I think is going to have
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  Speaker 6: to be worked out in future as relations between an
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  Speaker 6: impatient and clearly very smart but somewhat angry Vice President JD.
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  Speaker 6: Vance and Trump who's really not looking for others to
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  Speaker 6: steal center stage. I think that's going to be a
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  Speaker 6: fascinating relationship to watch over the next few years.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, you could feel the rage emanating from JD. Vans.
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  Speaker 1: It seemed very genuine, didn't it that he was angry.
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  Speaker 6: He's an angry young man going place as quickly, very smart,
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  Speaker 6: very able. He raised to me quite spurious views about
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  Speaker 6: Zelensky being rude because he was rude enough to have
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  Speaker 6: his own opinion in the Oval office.
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  Speaker 4: Have you said thank you once this entire meeting. No,
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  Speaker 4: in this entire meeting, have you said thank you? You went
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  Speaker 4: to Pennsylvania and campaigned for the opposition in October. Offer
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  Speaker 4: some words of appreciation for the United States of America
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  Speaker 4: and the President who's trying to save your country.
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  Speaker 5: Please, you're saying that if you will speak, we'rey loudly
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  Speaker 5: about the warrior.
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  Speaker 2: He'sn't speaking loudly. He's not speaking loudly. Your country is
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  Speaker 2: in big trouble. No, No, you've done a lot of talking.
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  Speaker 2: Your country is in big trouble. I know you're not.
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  Speaker 6: But you know, we had the spectacle of seeing Vance
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  Speaker 6: just a week or two ago at the Munich Security
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  Speaker 6: Conference basically giving a whole bunch of European leaders addressing
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  Speaker 6: down about their failings. I think whilst Vance clearly has
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  Speaker 6: the brains and the ambition, he's not yet shown that
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  Speaker 6: he's got the temperament to engage in relations international relations
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  Speaker 6: on behalf of the United States. Yes, we all understand
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  Speaker 6: that there's a new administration and that they want to
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  Speaker 6: do things dramatically differently, but as America going to have
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  Speaker 6: any friends if this is Vance's approach to how he
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  Speaker 6: wants to engage with the allies, let alone with the enemies.
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  Speaker 6: Vance doesn't seem to have got the memo that what
• 10:56
  Speaker 6: Trump wants from his cabinet is submission more than else.
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  Speaker 6: But I reckon this is going to become an issue
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  Speaker 6: between the two of.
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  Speaker 1: Them coming up. Trump wants to be considered the new
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  Speaker 1: Winston Churchill. How's that going? That's after the break, but.
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  Speaker 2: You don't have the cards. But once we signed that deal,
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  Speaker 2: you're in a much better position. But you're not acting
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  Speaker 2: at all thankful. And that's not a nice thing. I'll
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: be honest, that's not a nice thing. All right. I
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: think we've seen enough.
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  Speaker 3: What do you think?
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  Speaker 2: Huh, this is going to be great television. I will
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  Speaker 2: say that.
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  Speaker 1: Trump sought to assert himself in this meeting and spoke
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  Speaker 1: quite harshly to Zelenski. Then he observed that it was
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: great television. How do you interpret Donald Trump's behavior in
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: that meeting and what it tells us about his perception
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: of what both Vans and Zolensky were doing.
• 12:02
  Speaker 6: Trump's assessment of Ukraine's position is actually quite accurate. He
• 12:07
  Speaker 6: doesn't explain this in ways which are terribly diplomatic or
• 12:11
  Speaker 6: use the sorts of language that people used when talking
• 12:14
  Speaker 6: about international affairs. I think they will continue to fight.
• 12:18
  Speaker 6: I think that Ukraine will remain defiant of Russia. But
• 12:22
  Speaker 6: Trump's sort of big picture assessment of their position is right,
• 12:27
  Speaker 6: although he's not sold it very well. The idea of
• 12:30
  Speaker 6: this deal, as he would call it, over rare earths
• 12:33
  Speaker 6: is actually a pretty good opportunity for Ukraine to have
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  Speaker 6: American industry come into Ukraine in a big way, to
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  Speaker 6: generate wealth which is not being generated at the moment
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: because the rare earths are not being exploited, and that
• 12:47
  Speaker 6: Zelensky should have signed it. The President had sort of
• 12:50
  Speaker 6: worked through this in his own mind, but it seems
• 12:54
  Speaker 6: that the administration had not taken the trouble to sort
• 12:57
  Speaker 6: of privately talk Zelensky through why this was probably the
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: best deal he was going to get. And you know,
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: Zelenski himself, whilst I'm very sympathetic towards his desire to
• 13:09
  Speaker 6: want to have high levels security guarantees provided to Ukraine,
• 13:13
  Speaker 6: ideally in the form of NATO membership, that's obviously just
• 13:17
  Speaker 6: not going to happen right now.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Trump accused Zelensky of toying with World War three. I've
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: read some analysts comparing this video, this vision or from
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the Oval Office as like watching the assassination of the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which of course precipitated World War One.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: What's your view? Is it as scary as that or
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: is that is that hyperbole?
• 13:45
  Speaker 6: I think it's hyperbole. I do not think that Putin
• 13:48
  Speaker 6: has the least interest or desire to extend this war
• 13:53
  Speaker 6: in a way which would turn it into World War three.
• 13:56
  Speaker 6: And sort of implicit in that line is the possible
• 13:59
  Speaker 6: use of nuclear opens, for example, or the arrival of
• 14:01
  Speaker 6: American military forces directly into the conflict. My evidence for
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: saying that I think this is unlikely is that it
• 14:09
  Speaker 6: hasn't happened, clear not in three years. What is likely
• 14:13
  Speaker 6: to bring about a larger scale war in Europe is
• 14:17
  Speaker 6: if the Americans make it clear that they're quitting the
• 14:19
  Speaker 6: continent and they're not going to be prepared to involve
• 14:22
  Speaker 6: themselves in European security. Part of the Trump Zelensky discussion
• 14:27
  Speaker 6: was sort of around that theme, you know, when they
• 14:30
  Speaker 6: were getting into their shouting moment, Zelensky was sort of
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: saying to Trump, hey, well, there's an ocean between you
• 14:37
  Speaker 6: and the threat, but it's going to catch up with
• 14:39
  Speaker 6: you eventually.
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: During the war. Everybody has problems, even you, but you
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: have nice aution and don't feel now, but you will
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: feel it in the Futureless un bless You're unblessed.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: You're not don't tell us what we're going to feel.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: We're trying to solve a problem. Don't tell us what
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: we're going to feel.
• 14:59
  Speaker 5: I'm not telling you.
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  Speaker 6: And that's one of the Ukrainian perspectives as they see
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: themselves at the front line of a broader conflict protecting
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: Europe and the Americans I think, at least under the
• 15:09
  Speaker 6: Trump administration, don't build a connection into seeing that that's
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: something that's directly relevant to their security. So there's a
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: failure of strategic perception. But are we really facing World
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: War three? As we saw in the lead up to
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: the Second World War and in the very early stages
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: of the Second World War, what gave Germany confidence to
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: attack the democracies at that time was a sense that
• 15:35
  Speaker 6: appeasement was going to lead the democracies to give way
• 15:38
  Speaker 6: to Germany's aspirations for control of what they would call
• 15:43
  Speaker 6: German territory in neighboring states.
• 15:46
  Speaker 7: This morning, I had another dog with the German Chancellor Hitler,
• 15:55
  Speaker 7: and here it is the paper Ridge bears his name
• 16:01
  Speaker 7: upon it as well as mine.
• 16:07
  Speaker 6: It was appeasement that led to the Second World War,
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: not the terrence I look at Donald Trump. I can
• 16:13
  Speaker 6: respect a lot of what Trump is doing. But you know,
• 16:16
  Speaker 6: he's got a bust of Winston Churchill in the Oval
• 16:18
  Speaker 6: office that was sort of looking down at this discussion
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: taking place.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: the landing grounge, we shall never surrender.
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: Trump wants to be like Winston Churchill, but at the
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: moment he's behaving like Neville Chamberlain. He's being more inclined
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: to I think give credit to Putin, and I think
• 16:41
  Speaker 6: Zelensky is absolutely right to say, how can you trust
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: this guy? This is the impasse that we're in right now.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Peter Jennings is a Director of Strategic Analysis Australia and
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: a former senior defense official. You can read his razor
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: sharp analysis anytime at the Australian dot com dorajeu