Latest / Crosstabs / Carpet Bombing in the Senate

Transcript

Carpet Bombing in the Senate · Crosstabs

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Clear to engage.
0:01
SPEAKER_00: Time on target, five mics, out.
0:05
[music]
0:28
SPEAKER_00: Oh, okay.
0:29
SPEAKER_00: You want me to start?
0:29
SPEAKER_00: I always have to start.
0:31
SPEAKER_00: Where do I start?
0:33
SPEAKER_00: Ever since I came over to the house,
0:36
SPEAKER_00: you guys have been wrecking the senate,
0:38
SPEAKER_00: and it continues with this new carpet that is in there.
0:45
SPEAKER_00: It's this black,
0:47
SPEAKER_00: which I think it has brown,
0:50
SPEAKER_00: a little bit of brown in it, but it's primarily dark gray, almost black.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: And it looks really weird against the carpet in the Senate that has like the wheat
0:58
SPEAKER_00: and the orange and all that that's going on.
1:01
SPEAKER_00: And so what I want to know is what's up and are you going to fix it?
1:05
SPEAKER_01: Am I going to fix it?
1:07
SPEAKER_01: I, you know, it's kind of funny.
1:09
SPEAKER_01: I actually kind of liked it.
1:10
SPEAKER_01: I thought it was pretty good carpet.
1:11
SPEAKER_01: I walked over there this morning.
1:13
SPEAKER_01: I was like, oh, this looks good.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: We'll put a couple of photos.
1:17
SPEAKER_01: We're going to let you guys decide.
1:20
SPEAKER_01: But I thought I liked it.
1:21
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
1:21
SPEAKER_01: Dawson didn't like it either.
1:23
SPEAKER_00: You know, Anna Schar's chief of staff.
1:26
SPEAKER_00: He was a no-go on the carpet.
1:27
SPEAKER_00: You're a no-go on the carpet.
1:28
SPEAKER_00: Is Dawson allowed to have an opinion, though?
1:30
SPEAKER_00: Because has he ever worked in the Senate?
1:32
SPEAKER_00: I've worked in the Senate.
1:33
SPEAKER_00: You've worked in the Senate.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: He's worked for Greg, and he's worked for Anna.
1:37
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if he gets— So he doesn't get an opinion if you don't work in the Senate?
1:40
SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
1:42
SPEAKER_00: No Senate job, no opinion.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: That's fair.
1:44
SPEAKER_00: No, I'm just kidding.
1:45
SPEAKER_00: We want everybody to have the opinion.
1:47
SPEAKER_01: So Schmoller gets an opinion.
1:48
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
1:49
SPEAKER_01: So only people.
1:50
SPEAKER_01: So Ashley gets
1:52
SPEAKER_00: an appointment.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: How about we wait the folks that have had or have Senate jobs, they get double.
1:56
SPEAKER_00: They get double vote.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: They get double vote.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: No, I think it's great.
1:59
SPEAKER_00: I want to hear what everybody thinks about the carpet.
2:01
SPEAKER_00: I think, you know who would have hated the carpet?
2:04
SPEAKER_00: Peter, Michael, Coleman, Courtney would have hated this carpet.
2:08
SPEAKER_01: You think what?
2:09
SPEAKER_00: Oh, he would have hated it.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: It's modern.
2:11
SPEAKER_00: It clashes with all the old stuff.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: It is modern.
2:14
SPEAKER_00: And it's very modern.
2:15
SPEAKER_00: And I generally like a lot of what has happened in the Capitol.
2:18
SPEAKER_00: A lot of the upgrades.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: I don't like that my badge doesn't work to get into any of the rooms anymore,
2:22
SPEAKER_00: but that's just me being grumpy about not being treated special.
2:26
SPEAKER_00: But I think Peter would have hated this carpet.
2:29
SPEAKER_00: I have a gut feeling.
2:30
SPEAKER_01: So who made the choice?
2:32
SPEAKER_01: Like somebody looked at three, four samples, whatever, two samples, and they made the call.
2:38
SPEAKER_01: Was that facilities or did it go all the way up to leadership?
2:41
SPEAKER_01: That's probably the question.
2:42
SPEAKER_00: I bet ledge admin.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: I bet Brett Haynes looked at it.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: I would say it would be if I was him,
2:50
SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't have done it without asking probably at least the Senate president.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: I figure Wagner's got to be.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: So Wagner's responsible.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: He could be.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: He could be.
3:00
SPEAKER_00: There's a pretty good chance.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: I would love to.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: Who's the presiding officer?
3:04
SPEAKER_00: And that's the thing that people don't – it's interesting about the Capitol.
3:07
SPEAKER_00: The governor works here, but the two presiding officers essentially have run of the building.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: We have a ledger admin committee, but they create that committee.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: So they could stack it with anybody they wanted to to run the building basically.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: There might be rules.
3:20
SPEAKER_00: I'd have to go back and check to see if there's rules, but I don't think there are.
3:24
SPEAKER_00: Would Janine have liked it?
3:39
SPEAKER_00: Because you already have dark wood in the Senate.
3:41
SPEAKER_00: You have the darker walnut.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: I think it's walnut over there.
3:44
SPEAKER_00: And so darker carpet, it makes the whole place darker.
3:48
SPEAKER_00: And the orange carpet was, it wasn't bright, but it wasn't dark either.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: And so it helped counterbalance some of the darker wood.
3:55
SPEAKER_01: I mean, the house carpet sucks.
3:57
SPEAKER_01: House carpet's bad.
3:58
SPEAKER_00: It's green.
3:58
SPEAKER_00: It's this crappy green
4:00
SPEAKER_01: color that's
4:01
SPEAKER_00: just...
4:01
SPEAKER_00: It could use some help.
4:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, maybe they get next dibs or something.
4:05
SPEAKER_00: Well, you guys had a giant leak, which was part of the problem over there.
4:09
SPEAKER_01: Oh, really?
4:09
SPEAKER_01: Was that on purpose?
4:10
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
4:11
SPEAKER_00: Is that how you get new carpet?
4:13
SPEAKER_00: Are you saying the new carpet was an inside job, Bryan?
4:15
SPEAKER_01: It happened on the fourth floor.
4:16
SPEAKER_01: I don't know who's up there, but I think we should investigate.
4:20
SPEAKER_01: Gorsick, he's up around there.
4:22
SPEAKER_01: Who at Reynolds' office is up there.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: Senator Pham.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: We need to be asking some questions, Reagan.
4:29
SPEAKER_00: That's all I'm saying.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: It's squish watch when you move to the fourth floor.
4:34
SPEAKER_00: You're on watch for, are you a squish or not?
4:36
SPEAKER_01: So who's on the fourth floor?
4:37
SPEAKER_01: Because it's always smart to do it on the fourth floor because then it travels down.
4:40
SPEAKER_01: It travels all the way down.
4:42
SPEAKER_01: All the way down.
4:43
SPEAKER_01: Well, carpet, vote.
4:46
SPEAKER_01: We'll keep that going through session maybe.
4:48
SPEAKER_01: We'll get as many people as we can to vote.
4:51
SPEAKER_00: We should put it on the whiteboard and have people tally their votes.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: We could do a QR code when you walk off the third floor.
4:57
SPEAKER_01: We'll put it on the elevator.
4:58
SPEAKER_01: Vote if you like the garbage.
5:02
SPEAKER_01: I think that would be kind of fun.
5:04
SPEAKER_00: Ledge admin, if you're listening, it wasn't us.
5:06
SPEAKER_00: We didn't do it.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: It's not our fault.
5:08
SPEAKER_01: All right, all right.
5:11
SPEAKER_01: I guess it is less than a week until election, so I guess we should talk about those.
5:15
SPEAKER_01: It's the longest year of our lives this week.
5:18
SPEAKER_01: It always feels like it.
5:21
SPEAKER_01: You know, I think... And it feels...
5:24
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
5:25
SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the environment first.
5:27
SPEAKER_01: The environment feels really...
5:29
SPEAKER_01: Bad.
5:30
SPEAKER_01: Horrendous.
5:31
SPEAKER_01: For us right now.
5:32
SPEAKER_01: So let's just put that on the table.
5:34
SPEAKER_01: The environment is not good.
5:36
SPEAKER_00: I've seen a lot of comparisons to 2006.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: You have second term incumbent Republican president.
5:44
SPEAKER_00: You've got war in the Middle East.
5:47
SPEAKER_00: You've got an unstable economy.
5:49
SPEAKER_00: It's not bad, but it's not good.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: And so all of those comparisons lead to 2006, which was quite bad.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: And then that led into 2008, which was much more bad.
6:02
SPEAKER_00: And I'm not going to make any predictions about 2028.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: I think it's more likely to be a toss-up than not.
6:08
SPEAKER_00: But I do think there are obviously a lot of comparisons to 2006 that do make sense to me.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: So we just have to see, like, at the end of the day.
6:19
SPEAKER_00: It doesn't feel great.
6:21
SPEAKER_00: It feels like an environment where we're about to lose a bunch.
6:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but 06, so, I mean, Reagan, you were, I don't know, what were you, third grade?
6:30
SPEAKER_01: 2006?
6:31
SPEAKER_01: 11.
6:32
SPEAKER_01: Somewhere around there.
6:33
SPEAKER_01: I was pretty close.
6:35
SPEAKER_01: So I was working on the Saxton campaign at that time,
6:37
SPEAKER_01: statewide race, running, and it didn't feel as negative as it feels now.
6:48
SPEAKER_01: And I think because Bush, granted, you had the wars and stuff.
6:51
SPEAKER_01: I get all that.
6:53
SPEAKER_01: But Bush nearly won the state in 04.
6:57
SPEAKER_01: So he was still coming off a fairly decent high of 9-11.
7:01
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
7:02
SPEAKER_01: And there was still a lot of patriotism.
7:04
SPEAKER_01: I think there was some skepticism over the war,
7:07
SPEAKER_01: but I would have to go back and look at the numbers.
7:09
SPEAKER_01: But I would say that the anti-Iran mentality has got to be stronger than
7:16
SPEAKER_01: the anti-Iraq mentality of 06.
7:20
SPEAKER_01: And you also didn't have President Trump,
7:22
SPEAKER_01: who just clearly the TDS on the left is really extreme at this point.
7:29
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's what's driving that voter sentiment is just
7:35
SPEAKER_01: the negativity around President Trump.
7:38
SPEAKER_01: And as a huge...
7:40
SPEAKER_01: I'm a fan of President Trump.
7:43
SPEAKER_01: He's not doing us any favors from a political environment standpoint.
7:48
SPEAKER_01: It's not good that we have a war,
7:52
SPEAKER_01: which he has been part of the reason why I've been a President Trump fan is
7:55
SPEAKER_01: the anti-war mentality, and that's really bugged me.
8:00
SPEAKER_01: I try to hold...
8:02
SPEAKER_01: You know, reservations in regards to like, I don't know what I don't know.
8:06
SPEAKER_01: So I'm going to take that as it is.
8:09
SPEAKER_01: But I really one of the biggest reasons why I was a Trump supporter even in 16 was
8:13
SPEAKER_01: because of the wars and and not.
8:16
SPEAKER_01: And I'm kind of an isolationist.
8:18
SPEAKER_01: I'm at least a Monroe Doctrine guy.
8:21
SPEAKER_01: So I kind of would rather us mostly focus on our hemisphere, if anything.
8:26
SPEAKER_01: So I really liked what we did.
8:28
SPEAKER_01: With Greenland, I love that.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: I love Gulf of America.
8:31
SPEAKER_01: I love that sort of stuff coming out of the Trump organization.
8:35
SPEAKER_01: But going after Iran, I'm all for dropping bombs on people that hate us.
8:40
SPEAKER_01: I'm a good fan.
8:41
SPEAKER_01: I'm a fan of that.
8:42
SPEAKER_01: But I'm not a fan of these kind of forever wars, right?
8:47
SPEAKER_01: You get locked into something and it just never is going to change.
8:50
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's really hurt our gas prices, hurt the diesel prices.
8:55
SPEAKER_01: You know, the price of oil goes up.
8:57
SPEAKER_01: And I mean,
8:58
SPEAKER_01: granted,
8:58
SPEAKER_01: people make money when the price of oil goes up,
9:00
SPEAKER_01: but they're not the rank and file voters that make money.
9:03
SPEAKER_01: They're the hedge funds and the ultra rich just make more money.
9:06
SPEAKER_01: So that's a problem for us.
9:08
SPEAKER_01: And I think that all that's contributing to this political environment.
9:11
SPEAKER_01: The only thing that's keeping us somewhat in it Is that the Democrats have failed
9:17
SPEAKER_01: so badly in Oregon from the governor down that it feels like that's maybe
9:22
SPEAKER_01: the only thing keeping us in there,
9:24
SPEAKER_01: but I just don't feel like that is punching through the Trump stuff.
9:28
SPEAKER_00: I was listening to – somebody sent me a clip of The Huddle,
9:33
SPEAKER_00: which is a bipartisan political podcast, and the Republican on it is Sean Spicer.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: You may remember from the RNC chairmanship days in 2016 and Trump's first press secretary.
9:45
SPEAKER_00: How long did he last?
9:48
SPEAKER_00: Longer than Scaramucci and longer than the lady that just had it,
9:55
SPEAKER_00: but still on the shorter end of tenures.
9:58
SPEAKER_00: So he was talking about...
10:00
SPEAKER_00: The House really feels like a lost cause in a lot of ways.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: Speaker Mike Johnson is not saying it is, and he may have better polling.
10:10
SPEAKER_00: But the Senate feels like a toss-up to slightly lean Democrat.
10:14
SPEAKER_00: But he was pointing out all these governor's elections.
10:17
SPEAKER_00: Phil Scott's still ahead in Vermont.
10:20
SPEAKER_00: I don't know how to pronounce it.
10:21
SPEAKER_00: A-O-D?
10:21
SPEAKER_00: Kelly A-O-D?
10:22
SPEAKER_00: Kelly...
10:24
SPEAKER_00: Anyway, in New Hampshire, Locke.
10:26
SPEAKER_00: And then he was pointing out Oregon and how Oregon is competitive.
10:31
SPEAKER_00: And so in the sort of and then there was a poll from Marist recently that took
10:35
SPEAKER_00: the main weirdly Susan Collins is behind in the Senate race polling and
10:40
SPEAKER_00: the governor.
10:41
SPEAKER_00: So the Marist poll has Susan Collins.
10:44
SPEAKER_00: Behind by a couple of points and yet the Republican
10:46
SPEAKER_00: for governor that's been trailing the whole time in Maine who hasn't been expected
10:51
SPEAKER_00: to win at all is tied.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: And so I think you have these blue states where Republicans are gaining
10:57
SPEAKER_00: and showing themselves stronger than usual and you have red states
11:00
SPEAKER_00: where Democrats are gaining.
11:01
SPEAKER_00: And that's the one piece where I'm like if it's
11:03
SPEAKER_00: a blue wave why are there Republicans that are doing well in blue states.
11:06
SPEAKER_00: That's the only thing that I have to go on that goes well maybe not.
11:10
SPEAKER_01: Well, and I was watching,
11:11
SPEAKER_01: you know,
11:11
SPEAKER_01: it reminded me of that CNN guy, Harry, he's kind of Entner, Entner, whatever.
11:16
SPEAKER_00: Harry Enten, he used to be on FiveThirtyEight as well.
11:19
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
11:20
SPEAKER_00: He's at least entertaining
11:21
SPEAKER_01: with his polling.
11:22
SPEAKER_01: He is.
11:23
SPEAKER_01: And I think his stuff is pretty good, and I think...
11:25
SPEAKER_01: And he was talking about how,
11:27
SPEAKER_01: but the negative view of the Democratic Party is still really strong.
11:31
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's why I'm holding out for a little bit of hope
11:35
SPEAKER_01: because I think it's not as crazy.
11:39
SPEAKER_01: Like I think people,
11:40
SPEAKER_01: there is some anti-Trump people,
11:41
SPEAKER_01: but I think it's so concentrated on On that far left that it kind of overtakes
11:47
SPEAKER_01: the media and it consumes people on social media and stuff is the TDS folks,
11:52
SPEAKER_01: the boomer hippies that are just so anti-Trump kind of like suck up the oxygen in
11:59
SPEAKER_01: the room.
12:00
SPEAKER_01: And so like the normal everyday person that's probably,
12:03
SPEAKER_01: you know,
12:03
SPEAKER_01: not probably not listening to this podcast because they're not,
12:06
SPEAKER_01: you know, they're not like us.
12:08
SPEAKER_01: We're just way into the details of campaigns and everything.
12:12
SPEAKER_01: They're probably just like, Their negative view of Democrats is still there.
12:18
SPEAKER_01: They're probably not impressed with Trump, but they're like, well, I'm fine with the Republican.
12:23
SPEAKER_01: I just think it's not as bad as it feels like it is out there, I hope.
12:28
SPEAKER_01: But in Oregon,
12:28
SPEAKER_01: you know, I mean,
12:29
SPEAKER_01: us being down 4% on voter turnout at this point compared to 22 and that being
12:35
SPEAKER_01: a D plus, you know, 13 on the voter registration, that's tough for us.
12:40
SPEAKER_01: And I think we have to overcome that this weekend and we'll kind of see what happens Monday.
12:44
SPEAKER_01: We'll have a You know,
12:45
SPEAKER_01: the new data dump and then that'll really give us an idea what it looks like.
12:49
SPEAKER_01: So what about are you seeing any other races?
12:53
SPEAKER_01: Why do you feel about the legislative races?
12:55
SPEAKER_01: What sort of noise are you hearing out there?
12:57
SPEAKER_00: It's it's all very muddled.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: Some, you know, sometimes I hear Democrats are feeling good.
13:04
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes I hear Democrats are not feeling good.
13:08
SPEAKER_00: About some of their chances.
13:09
SPEAKER_00: I am sort of preparing myself for worst case scenario.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: So that way I can't be disappointed on election night.
13:17
SPEAKER_01: 41-19 is that worst case scenario?
13:21
SPEAKER_00: Unfortunately, I've set worst case scenario probably a little too low at like 39-21.
13:25
SPEAKER_00: Because I want to believe that there's still that ability to deny quorum if they try
13:29
SPEAKER_00: to do something really crazy.
13:31
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
13:32
SPEAKER_00: I know that's very much a long shot.
13:34
SPEAKER_00: And same in the Senate, 19 and 11 would be my worst case scenario.
13:38
SPEAKER_00: And that's not a commentary on any of the campaigns or anyone specifically
13:42
SPEAKER_00: that I think is doing well or not.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: I think Republicans are doing a tremendous job on their campaigns despite all
13:49
SPEAKER_00: of these headwinds.
13:51
SPEAKER_00: You know, Heggie's outspending Hank Sanders.
13:53
SPEAKER_00: You got Brad Hicks outspending Denise Krause in Southern Oregon.
13:56
SPEAKER_00: You've got Kramer who I think is running a tough race really well.
14:00
SPEAKER_00: Mannix running a tough race well.
14:03
SPEAKER_00: And I'm not betting against any of them specifically.
14:05
SPEAKER_00: I'm just preparing myself for bad outcomes.
14:09
SPEAKER_00: And if they all win, then I'll be very happy.
14:11
SPEAKER_00: If we hold what we've got, that would be a good night at this point.
14:14
SPEAKER_01: It would be a tremendous night if we held what we got.
14:17
SPEAKER_01: I think that would be battling the headwinds, I think, would be really good.
14:22
SPEAKER_01: I think if you're the Democrats,
14:23
SPEAKER_01: this is what I keep kind of Thinking like in their discussions,
14:28
SPEAKER_01: the campaign team's discussions, I wonder, because they have money.
14:32
SPEAKER_01: They have lots more money than we do.
14:34
SPEAKER_01: But they don't seem to be overly spending it in some of these races like Hagee's
14:41
SPEAKER_01: and Mannix and stuff.
14:43
SPEAKER_01: They're in them, but they're not overly spending.
14:47
SPEAKER_01: Like if they really wanted to win something, they would be overly spending.
14:52
SPEAKER_01: And I'm not really seeing, so it tells me, Like say Emerson Levy's race, right?
14:57
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they spent a ton last cycle against Kerry Lopez and they spent,
15:02
SPEAKER_01: I don't see Emerson's, but heck I see her giving money back to leadership.
15:07
SPEAKER_01: So that tells me that race is done.
15:08
SPEAKER_01: It's cooked.
15:09
SPEAKER_01: It's over.
15:12
SPEAKER_01: Like these other races where they wanted to be in 26,
15:18
SPEAKER_01: Corey Rodley and Springfield.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: Like they're not really spending hardly much of anything.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: So that tells me, Tells me all the other races are off the table.
15:29
SPEAKER_01: And they're just solid D races.
15:31
SPEAKER_01: And nobody really, because it's not like the Republicans are spending money either.
15:36
SPEAKER_01: So they really seem to be in those three House races.
15:40
SPEAKER_01: And maybe Legaspie, but I don't see 22 going at all.
15:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: I see.
15:46
SPEAKER_01: And quite frankly,
15:47
SPEAKER_01: I'll give some intel,
15:48
SPEAKER_01: Crosstabs intel, that I hear the Ds feel very bullish about Javity.
15:56
SPEAKER_01: And I've heard some internals have Javity up six to nine points.
16:00
SPEAKER_00: That's a lot.
16:01
SPEAKER_01: So I think that one's off the table.
16:04
SPEAKER_01: I think they're going to fight to the finish.
16:07
SPEAKER_01: But if you spend more money there,
16:08
SPEAKER_01: where if you have a Hagee and Mannix, because we've already lost Javity.
16:13
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
16:13
SPEAKER_01: To your point, holding serve would be a good outcome.
16:18
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
16:19
SPEAKER_01: And so if you're the leadership right now, you have to be looking at holding serve.
16:25
SPEAKER_01: And so if you're spending more money just because you hate Javity
16:29
SPEAKER_01: because he switched parties, that's not good leadership.
16:32
SPEAKER_01: That's bad.
16:33
SPEAKER_01: That's doing bad for the party.
16:36
SPEAKER_01: And I think you need to focus on where you can still win.
16:39
SPEAKER_01: So Mannix,
16:40
SPEAKER_01: historically,
16:42
SPEAKER_01: you know,
16:42
SPEAKER_01: Mannix, I mean, is there a person in Kaiser that doesn't know Kevin Mannix?
16:46
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's been operating politically in this space for years.
16:50
SPEAKER_01: 40 plus years, right?
16:52
SPEAKER_01: So I think,
16:54
SPEAKER_01: and Kevin has done a really good job of being,
16:58
SPEAKER_01: I think,
16:58
SPEAKER_01: a moderate where he needs to be a moderate,
17:00
SPEAKER_01: conservative where he needs to be conservative.
17:01
SPEAKER_00: He's like our Susan Collins, basically.
17:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there you go.
17:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, and I think, I mean,
17:05
SPEAKER_01: there's a couple times these four things that I'm like, whoa, there's no train.
17:09
SPEAKER_01: There's no train going to happen, Kevin, to be Salem and Portland.
17:12
SPEAKER_01: Let's get that off the table.
17:15
SPEAKER_01: But I like Kevin and I think he's a pretty good representative for his area.
17:21
SPEAKER_01: I think he governs that way.
17:24
SPEAKER_01: And I think you have a real good shot at,
17:26
SPEAKER_01: and the guy running against him,
17:27
SPEAKER_01: I don't know, he's kind of a no-namer, I don't even know what he is.
17:31
SPEAKER_01: And then you got Hagee also with,
17:33
SPEAKER_01: like we talked about in the last episode,
17:35
SPEAKER_01: just resume-wise, just looks way better than his opponent who's 25 and
17:42
SPEAKER_01: Hasn't really done much of anything except for some nepotism, which we're not against.
17:47
SPEAKER_01: But I just think if I'm in the House, I think I dump everything I got into those two seats.
17:55
SPEAKER_01: And 22 is either going to go or doesn't go because there's so much of an effort on
18:00
SPEAKER_01: the Senate with Tracy Kramer that I think that either goes or it doesn't go
18:04
SPEAKER_01: at this point.
18:05
SPEAKER_01: So I would just...
18:06
SPEAKER_01: Circle all my resources and everything I have into 52 and, I don't know, what is Kevin?
18:13
SPEAKER_01: 23?
18:14
SPEAKER_01: 22?
18:15
SPEAKER_00: Something like that.
18:16
SPEAKER_00: 21, I think.
18:16
SPEAKER_00: That was close.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, 21 because District 22 is Woodburn.
18:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean,
18:22
SPEAKER_00: I think I totally agree with what you said because I think,
18:27
SPEAKER_00: one, at this point, you're not moving six to eight points in a week and a half.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: If that's where you're actually at.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: Right.
18:35
SPEAKER_00: And so either the polls have to be wrong or you got to you got to move resources.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: Right.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: And I think and to the point where you're moving those resources
18:44
SPEAKER_00: and what you're doing is,
18:45
SPEAKER_00: I mean, TV is about as expensive as you can get at this point.
18:48
SPEAKER_00: Right.
18:49
SPEAKER_00: So that's not your bang for your buck.
18:50
SPEAKER_00: Your bang for your buck is get out the vote, I think, at this day.
18:53
SPEAKER_00: At this juncture.
18:55
SPEAKER_00: And I mean,
18:56
SPEAKER_00: there's a lot of it too,
18:56
SPEAKER_00: where it's like in the last week and a half, you can affect such a small portion.
19:02
SPEAKER_00: And so the closest races are going to be the most impacted for sure.
19:07
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
19:07
SPEAKER_01: Persuasion is over at this point.
19:09
SPEAKER_01: It's really just a matter of, you know, phone calls, texting, doors.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: Like that's kind of, it's about all you can do.
19:16
SPEAKER_01: You can throw,
19:17
SPEAKER_01: you can waste money on social media at this point,
19:19
SPEAKER_01: but I don't think anybody's not made up their mind.
19:23
SPEAKER_01: It's really just a matter of your modeled voters and your Republicans
19:26
SPEAKER_01: and getting them out to vote in those target areas.
19:29
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's really where the effort has to be.
19:32
SPEAKER_01: And if there isn't an effort to do that amongst those campaigns
19:35
SPEAKER_01: and their effort is just to spend more money on digital,
19:38
SPEAKER_01: then you're just wasting money.
19:41
SPEAKER_01: And if a consultant came to me and said, hey,
19:45
SPEAKER_01: I got a plan,
19:46
SPEAKER_01: here's my 50 grand and I want to do, you know, social media ads or whatever.
19:51
SPEAKER_01: I just feel like get out of my office.
19:52
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, or more TV.
19:55
SPEAKER_01: Like, oh, we could do a cable buy over the weekend and buy football.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: Like, no, no, nobody cares at this point.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: Like, it's over.
20:03
SPEAKER_00: What football are you buying?
20:04
SPEAKER_00: Nobody's watching University of Oregon anymore.
20:06
SPEAKER_00: I guess you could buy beaver football, but.
20:09
SPEAKER_01: Do you think the shooting in Bend has any relevance?
20:14
SPEAKER_01: Is that the only real October surprise we have in Oregon?
20:17
SPEAKER_01: No.
20:18
SPEAKER_01: Is it – do you think it has any
20:20
SPEAKER_00: pull on anything?
20:22
SPEAKER_00: I don't think so, but I could totally be wrong about that.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: I mean I have seen a lot less – I mean you see a lot about it on social media in
20:32
SPEAKER_00: the day – the couple days after.
20:34
SPEAKER_00: But people very quickly retreated into their positions on guns right after that,
20:39
SPEAKER_00: whether or not – I mean we got plenty of emails
20:42
SPEAKER_00: from people saying it's definitely time for a concealed carry to be allowed
20:45
SPEAKER_00: in schools.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: Time for school resource officers at every door, all that stuff.
20:50
SPEAKER_00: And Democrats are like, just another reason why we need to ban all the guns.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: It does feel that way.
20:56
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that that is going to have much of an impact.
20:59
SPEAKER_00: As you pointed out,
21:01
SPEAKER_00: no close races in Central Oregon,
21:03
SPEAKER_00: I'd say, apart from the Deschutes County Commission stuff.
21:05
SPEAKER_00: And this doesn't feel like it's going to really affect those commission races much.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: So I think at the end of the day, to me, it doesn't seem like it's going to be a big factor.
21:14
SPEAKER_00: But I could be totally wrong.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: I'm not on the doors out there.
21:17
SPEAKER_00: I'm not in the doors that you're doing.
21:20
SPEAKER_00: And if you're not hearing about it on doors, then it's probably not a factor.
21:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I just wonder.
21:25
SPEAKER_01: I mean like they did the press conference.
21:27
SPEAKER_01: They're doing – like Democrats are clearly trying to – and I don't want to say capitalize on it.
21:33
SPEAKER_01: But I mean the Jason Krupp crying on – I mean I could do without that.
21:37
SPEAKER_01: That was a little over the top.
21:41
SPEAKER_01: And I think they're trying to use it as a motivation versus like a policy driving
21:47
SPEAKER_01: because I haven't really heard from the D's either saying we need to – it's time
21:51
SPEAKER_01: for more gun control.
21:52
SPEAKER_00: Not from legislators.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: I was talking more like what you see in the Facebook groups and stuff like that
21:57
SPEAKER_00: because I agree.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: Nobody really came out and said I have a policy fix for this.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: I do expect we're going to see some gun bills both pro and anti in this.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: You mean not allowing 16-year-olds to get – oh, that's right.
22:08
SPEAKER_00: We already don't.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: It's definitely hard for me to see when you already have laws that are supposed
22:30
SPEAKER_00: to prevent this and then it still happens.
22:35
SPEAKER_00: The whole point is that they try to argue they don't want to ban guns,
22:38
SPEAKER_00: but it's pretty clear their only solution is to be like Europe and not have guns.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: And so if that's the argument,
22:46
SPEAKER_00: then what you're really arguing is about repealing the Second Amendment
22:50
SPEAKER_00: in Article 1, Section 27 of the Constitution.
22:53
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think either of those things are going to pass.
22:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't
22:57
SPEAKER_00: think so.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: So then it's just about what can you do to mitigate the negative aspect of criminals with guns.
23:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I've heard some stuff around like hardening our schools some more.
23:06
SPEAKER_01: But, you know,
23:07
SPEAKER_01: it's always so tough for me because I think like hardening them means more fences,
23:12
SPEAKER_01: right?
23:12
SPEAKER_01: More locked doors, more... And it just comes down...
23:16
SPEAKER_01: I think it's a culture thing.
23:17
SPEAKER_01: It's really not a...
23:19
SPEAKER_01: It's not a legislative fix.
23:22
SPEAKER_01: It's a culture problem.
23:24
SPEAKER_01: We have a culture problem in this country.
23:26
SPEAKER_01: The culture isn't, I love guns and we need to fix that culture.
23:31
SPEAKER_01: The culture is there's mentally ill young men in this country that need
23:39
SPEAKER_01: to be reached in a way that they haven't been reached before.
23:44
SPEAKER_01: And I think that's really where the problem lies.
23:46
SPEAKER_01: And because it's young men, you don't see women doing this stuff.
23:50
SPEAKER_01: So it is a young...
23:53
SPEAKER_01: Male problem.
23:54
SPEAKER_01: And I think you can trace it back to a lot of things,
23:57
SPEAKER_01: but I don't want to,
23:58
SPEAKER_01: you know, all of a sudden set up mental health people everywhere.
24:02
SPEAKER_01: I think that if the kid had an AR-15 versus a shotgun that basically anybody can get
24:08
SPEAKER_01: a shotgun, I think we would be having a different debate.
24:12
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
24:12
SPEAKER_01: Because I think if you get an assault style weapon,
24:15
SPEAKER_01: because then the news stories all write it out way better,
24:17
SPEAKER_01: you know, with an assault weapon, you know, meant for war.
24:23
SPEAKER_01: I think you would have saw a lot bigger of an outcry from the left, but I don't know.
24:28
SPEAKER_01: I think it's mostly driven by TDS, so I guess I'm with you.
24:31
SPEAKER_01: There's not a whole bunch out there.
24:32
SPEAKER_01: It's probably affecting Central Oregon a little bit more, so Emerson will probably win by more.
24:38
SPEAKER_01: Now, because it's probably getting the D's.
24:40
SPEAKER_01: And if you look at Deschutes County, like the D's are really ahead of us in that county.
24:45
SPEAKER_01: So that that's probably it's a motivation for them down there to get
24:49
SPEAKER_00: out and vote.
24:49
SPEAKER_00: And back to the statewide numbers, I think obviously Multnomah matters.
24:53
SPEAKER_00: But I think the three counties I'm looking at is I'm looking at I'm looking at Clackamas.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at Marion and I'm looking at Deschutes.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: And if all those go the wrong way,
25:04
SPEAKER_00: I have a hard time seeing how Drazen wins if we're competitive or gaining
25:07
SPEAKER_00: in all those.
25:08
SPEAKER_00: Because the big problem last year was the bottom fell out of Clackamas.
25:11
SPEAKER_00: And Clackamas just went blue.
25:13
SPEAKER_00: And we have already had the same problem with that trend in Deschutes.
25:17
SPEAKER_00: And in some ways, I'm thinking Deschutes could definitely continue that trend.
25:21
SPEAKER_00: But if things get better in Marion and Clackamas,
25:23
SPEAKER_00: it really does help offset statewide numbers anyway.
25:27
SPEAKER_00: But you mentioned Trump derangement syndrome.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: I'm starting to see a lot of what I'm going to call DDS, Drazen derangement syndrome.
25:35
SPEAKER_00: Did you see this?
25:36
SPEAKER_00: So Representative Travis Nelson posted apparently AI content it says,
25:42
SPEAKER_00: so this must have been AI generated.
25:45
SPEAKER_00: I think some of you are forgetting that Christine Drazen,
25:49
SPEAKER_00: in big letters, will get to appoint anti-reproductive choice judges.
25:56
SPEAKER_00: So my big question here is, aren't judges elected in Oregon?
26:00
SPEAKER_00: I feel like somebody told me that.
26:03
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it's,
26:03
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:04
SPEAKER_01: on the ballot there where nobody runs against them and you don't know who they are.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: They're your friends that text you and they're like, who do I vote for here?
26:11
SPEAKER_00: First of all.
26:13
SPEAKER_00: We have all Democrat appointed justices on the Oregon Supreme Court.
26:16
SPEAKER_00: Do you think any of them are really going to go, you know what, I'm going to retire?
26:20
SPEAKER_00: The only time in 40 years when we've had a Republican governor.
26:23
SPEAKER_00: No.
26:24
SPEAKER_00: No.
26:25
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think any of them are dying anytime soon.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: I think this is just, they're throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks.
26:32
SPEAKER_00: But it does make me wonder if they're also very worried about Yeah,
26:42
SPEAKER_01: I, well, one, we know how bright Travis can be sometimes, especially with his social media.
26:51
SPEAKER_01: I think he loves to go into dark corners with his social.
26:57
SPEAKER_01: It's good to see him back on X, though.
27:00
SPEAKER_01: Some of the Ds are starting to infiltrate back onto X, which I find kind of interesting.
27:05
SPEAKER_01: Twitter was better when both sides were there.
27:07
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
27:08
SPEAKER_01: But then you go on threads like we were talking about last week where I went
27:11
SPEAKER_01: on there and I didn't sign up for a count.
27:14
SPEAKER_01: I was just perusing.
27:16
SPEAKER_01: And you're right, man.
27:18
SPEAKER_01: That is some intense stuff going on.
27:20
SPEAKER_00: So here's Nelson's last few posts, the one I just read.
27:25
SPEAKER_00: One more about abortion law.
27:28
SPEAKER_00: They ask about,
27:30
SPEAKER_00: he says,
27:30
SPEAKER_00: Drazen has never called for the full release of the Epstein files, which I'm...
27:35
SPEAKER_00: Is that the number one issue of this campaign?
27:39
SPEAKER_00: How important is that to people?
27:41
SPEAKER_00: And then the Trump family is the most corrupt presidential family in U.S.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: history, and Christine Drazen says nothing.
27:49
SPEAKER_00: And I'm like,
27:50
SPEAKER_00: the Republican candidate for Oregon is going to change what
27:53
SPEAKER_00: the Trump family is doing?
27:55
SPEAKER_00: It's interesting to see what he's picking to
27:57
SPEAKER_01: post about and what he cares about
28:00
SPEAKER_00: in this.
28:01
SPEAKER_01: Yelling in his own echo chamber is all that is, right?
28:04
SPEAKER_01: Like you're just trying to make everybody around you all happy.
28:07
SPEAKER_01: And I don't know.
28:09
SPEAKER_01: I mean, corruption at the presidential level.
28:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I felt like Joe Biden and his son were doing a pretty dang bang-up job of corruption.
28:19
SPEAKER_01: I think Elon Omar and Feed America has done a pretty good bang-up job of corruption.
28:26
SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
28:26
SPEAKER_01: I just think it's kind of interesting to watch – But he's
28:31
SPEAKER_01: the only real – have there been a lot of legislators really weighing in on
28:36
SPEAKER_01: the governor's race?
28:36
SPEAKER_00: I saw a clip from Graeber also that was,
28:40
SPEAKER_00: I think, filmed by the DPO and pushed out on the socials.
28:42
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but not a lot.
28:44
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
28:44
SPEAKER_01: I find that – I wonder if that's on purpose or is there just not a – do the D's not
28:53
SPEAKER_01: a lot of love for Governor Kotick?
28:56
SPEAKER_01: Because I see a lot of the
28:58
SPEAKER_00: R's posting
28:58
SPEAKER_01: for Drazen.
28:59
SPEAKER_01: Yes, that's true.
29:00
SPEAKER_01: I've seen a lot of that.
29:02
SPEAKER_01: I just haven't seen a lot of the D's coming out and saying,
29:05
SPEAKER_01: or is it because in some of these battleground areas that the Democrats really,
29:11
SPEAKER_01: like Kotech's actually,
29:12
SPEAKER_01: Drazen's usually beating Kotech in most of these battlegrounds?
29:16
SPEAKER_01: Legislative seats.
29:17
SPEAKER_00: And that's the thing is ours are behind in a lot of the polling and
29:20
SPEAKER_00: then Drazen is still competitive or ahead in some of these districts.
29:23
SPEAKER_01: I've seen that in the polls.
29:24
SPEAKER_01: So I'm wondering if, you know, Michael Sugar or Susan Ricky Smith are just like Tina who?
29:33
SPEAKER_01: I don't know who that is.
29:35
SPEAKER_01: They don't want to be attached because I've seen even some people,
29:39
SPEAKER_01: which I don't think is helpful to Drazen,
29:41
SPEAKER_01: but I've seen some of the legislative people trying to attach themselves to Drazen.
29:45
SPEAKER_00: Mm-hmm.
29:45
SPEAKER_01: Which I don't think is helpful to Drazen.
29:47
SPEAKER_01: It might be helpful to the legislature.
29:49
SPEAKER_01: Like I even saw some of that Noemi Legaspi sign.
29:52
SPEAKER_01: Like she's got signs with their two photos on it together.
29:55
SPEAKER_01: Summers has that too.
29:56
SPEAKER_00: I saw that from Michael
29:58
SPEAKER_01: Summers.
29:59
SPEAKER_01: So that clearly tells me the polling that I've seen is correct,
30:03
SPEAKER_01: that Drazen's doing better than the legislative candidate.
30:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
30:07
SPEAKER_01: And I think there was in 22,
30:09
SPEAKER_01: there was some seats where she actually did do better than some of
30:12
SPEAKER_01: the legislative candidates, which is usually not the case.
30:16
SPEAKER_01: Usually your legislative candidates,
30:18
SPEAKER_01: as you go further down the ballot, the more right you usually go.
30:23
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's going to be interesting how that plays.
30:25
SPEAKER_01: But I'm with you on the Clackamas County thing.
30:28
SPEAKER_01: We've got to see Clackamas Marion.
30:29
SPEAKER_01: They've got to overturn.
30:30
SPEAKER_01: I know they're doing a lot of work in Washington County on the Drazen team.
30:34
SPEAKER_01: They think there's a lot of opportunity out over there.
30:37
SPEAKER_01: Probably not in Hillsboro, but maybe in the other grounds.
30:41
SPEAKER_01: I think Multnomah County, they've got to be working in.
30:43
SPEAKER_01: I think Deschutes is a lost cause at this point.
30:45
SPEAKER_01: I think the Republicans down there are a lost cause on some of the stuff that's happened.
30:50
SPEAKER_01: I just think that you'll still get a decent Republican turnout.
30:54
SPEAKER_01: I just think So many of the new people that have registered
30:58
SPEAKER_01: into Chutes County are coming in with left leanings, and that's how they're voting.
31:02
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:03
SPEAKER_01: But you need to focus on Jackson County, Columbia County, Union County.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: I think even the outer parts of Lane County are really good for your county.
31:14
SPEAKER_01: Lynn County should be huge.
31:16
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
31:16
SPEAKER_01: Because the Douglas County, these counties are, I think, where those NAVs are.
31:21
SPEAKER_01: They vote, right?
31:22
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
31:23
SPEAKER_01: Drazen needs to get them out.
31:25
SPEAKER_01: Clagamus and Marion and Washington, right?
31:28
SPEAKER_01: I mean, they're obviously the biggest counties, so you have to focus on there.
31:31
SPEAKER_01: Yep.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: But a vote's a vote, so you can't let Columbia County not vote, right?
31:39
SPEAKER_01: I mean, you have to get those people.
31:40
SPEAKER_01: Even though they might be upset at Trump, they'll still vote for Drazen.
31:44
SPEAKER_01: Right.
31:45
SPEAKER_01: They just got to vote.
31:46
SPEAKER_01: Yes, clearly.
31:48
SPEAKER_01: That's a big problem.
31:49
SPEAKER_00: Well, it'll be interesting to see.
31:50
SPEAKER_00: What else, Bryan?
31:51
SPEAKER_00: What do you want to talk about?
31:53
SPEAKER_01: No, I think that's a good update.
31:55
SPEAKER_01: I wish there was more.
31:56
SPEAKER_01: There's just not a lot of news around these campaigns.
31:59
SPEAKER_01: It's that dead space.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: I know we were going to plan to do two of these,
32:02
SPEAKER_01: but we were like, well, geez, do we have anything to really talk about?
32:06
SPEAKER_01: We only really like that.
32:07
SPEAKER_01: I mean, we could talk national stuff all day long,
32:09
SPEAKER_01: but I really think that at the end of the day, I think we hold the Senate.
32:15
SPEAKER_01: Well, when we do our next pod, we'll do one on Monday.
32:17
SPEAKER_01: It would be a good day to do one.
32:19
SPEAKER_01: We can look at voter returns, and then we can kind of maybe do our predictions.
32:25
SPEAKER_01: But I think nationally, I do believe we kind of – I think we barely hold the Senate.
32:28
SPEAKER_01: I think we win somewhere where people don't think we're going to win.
32:33
SPEAKER_01: And we probably lose somewhere where we shouldn't lose.
32:37
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's – but I think ultimately we still come out 50-50 or 51 in the Senate.
32:45
SPEAKER_01: And I think Michigan barely goes right is I think a fun prediction for me to make.
32:51
SPEAKER_01: I think Allah Akbar is too much for people to take or whatever his name is.
32:58
SPEAKER_01: Abdul El-Sayed.
33:01
SPEAKER_01: You said that just like Trump said it.
33:03
SPEAKER_00: We should probably delete it then.
33:05
SPEAKER_00: It's not a very good impression, but yeah.
33:09
SPEAKER_01: He's pretty good.
33:10
SPEAKER_01: And then Tala Frico, that's one of my favorites that he comes up with.
33:15
SPEAKER_01: I did see Obama out doing the – he was stumping and I just – he's – what was that?
33:20
SPEAKER_01: I think I was listening to Ruthless the other day or whatever and one of
33:24
SPEAKER_01: the guys was saying he just feels like Obama's lost a little step in his stump
33:29
SPEAKER_01: and I think he's correct.
33:30
SPEAKER_01: Like it was kind of – The joke was kind of flat.
33:33
SPEAKER_01: It wasn't really...
33:34
SPEAKER_01: He's not as charming.
33:35
SPEAKER_01: Because when that guy...
33:36
SPEAKER_01: When he spoke in 2008, man, when he...
33:39
SPEAKER_01: Probably one of the greatest presidential victory speeches that I've ever seen.
33:45
SPEAKER_01: You know, it was raining.
33:47
SPEAKER_01: He gets up there, you know, and he... And it was crazy.
33:51
SPEAKER_01: I mean, remember Oprah was crying?
33:53
SPEAKER_01: Like, they had her bawling.
33:54
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, you saw a black man winning the presidency.
33:58
SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I took it differently, not about...
34:00
SPEAKER_01: Universal health care.
34:01
SPEAKER_01: I wasn't a fan of that,
34:02
SPEAKER_01: but it made me think,
34:04
SPEAKER_01: you know, wow,
34:05
SPEAKER_01: you know,
34:05
SPEAKER_01: the United States has really come a long ways that you could have,
34:10
SPEAKER_01: you know, a black man be president of the United States of America.
34:13
SPEAKER_01: And I think that was pretty cool,
34:14
SPEAKER_01: regardless of Obama's, you know, left leanings and what have you.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: I thought it was pretty cool for us as a nation to be able to elect the most qualified.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: And at the time he was the most qualified.
34:26
SPEAKER_01: You know, person for president and mostly because he was a good orotator.
34:30
SPEAKER_01: And that was kind of my point is like now it's like he's trying to be Trump.
34:33
SPEAKER_01: He hates the fact that Trump is still in power.
34:36
SPEAKER_00: Yep.
34:36
SPEAKER_01: You know, Trump got Trump's getting what, 14 years out of this job.
34:40
SPEAKER_00: The reason Obama hates it is because it's his fault or he gets blamed for it all
34:44
SPEAKER_00: the time because Republicans say that the division of Obama led us to Trump
34:49
SPEAKER_00: and Obama hates that narrative.
34:52
SPEAKER_00: Now, the real.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: So and this was one that I had heard.
34:57
SPEAKER_00: I think probably
35:05
SPEAKER_00: there's a there's a there's a totally a chance there.
35:08
SPEAKER_00: And then where is Trump?
35:10
SPEAKER_00: He's not president.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: He's not as relevant.
35:12
SPEAKER_00: And so there is a pretty good argument that Obama basically caused this problem
35:16
SPEAKER_00: by blocking or telling Biden that he shouldn't run and supporting Hillary Clinton.
35:20
SPEAKER_00: I mean, do I know that any of that's true?
35:22
SPEAKER_00: I don't know how the conversations go.
35:23
SPEAKER_00: You could see how it could unfold that way.
35:26
SPEAKER_01: I think you're right.
35:27
SPEAKER_01: I think Biden would have been more palatable because— Well,
35:30
SPEAKER_01: he would have been sharper, first of all.
35:32
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
35:33
SPEAKER_01: But Clinton is just—she's just so— Disliked.
35:37
SPEAKER_01: And when Trump made that,
35:38
SPEAKER_01: you know,
35:38
SPEAKER_01: that when they did that debate and when he just said,
35:40
SPEAKER_01: well, if I was president, you'd be in jail.
35:43
SPEAKER_01: And that one just went so viral.
35:45
SPEAKER_01: And it was just so true.
35:48
SPEAKER_01: And the truth was just so biting.
35:52
SPEAKER_01: And I think so many people were just like, yeah, I'm not voting for Clinton.
35:56
SPEAKER_00: That would be like the modern equivalent of what Obama did there would be like
36:00
SPEAKER_00: if Trump in this next election goes,
36:04
SPEAKER_00: let's see, we've got Rubio and
36:05
SPEAKER_00: Vance and people really like them.
36:07
SPEAKER_00: No, I would like a Bush to run for president and I'm going to support them.
36:11
SPEAKER_00: It's like we
36:11
SPEAKER_00: had already done the Clinton thing and then he brings tries
36:14
SPEAKER_00: to bring it back because it's the first female president thing and and all that.
36:19
SPEAKER_00: And at the end of the day and she was qualified, obviously, but people just for whatever reason.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: Right.
36:26
SPEAKER_00: They didn't like who she was or they didn't like Clinton or whatever.
36:29
SPEAKER_00: She didn't have a ton of likability.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: She's not Bill.
36:31
SPEAKER_00: That's the problem.
36:32
SPEAKER_00: Like.
36:33
SPEAKER_01: I say this all the time.
36:35
SPEAKER_01: There's so many people in Vicky's district.
36:39
SPEAKER_01: Old people love her.
36:40
SPEAKER_01: They probably hate me.
36:46
SPEAKER_01: Maybe hate's too strong, but maybe they tolerate me, but they love Vicky.
36:51
SPEAKER_01: There's just something about her charisma that works.
36:56
SPEAKER_01: She even told me she was at this happy hour thing last night,
37:00
SPEAKER_01: and there was a bunch of Democrats there.
37:02
SPEAKER_01: Including friends of the guy that's running against her.
37:06
SPEAKER_01: And they were all like, well, but we voted for you, Vicky.
37:08
SPEAKER_01: We like you.
37:09
SPEAKER_01: So I just think there's a certain like there's a certain charmness
37:13
SPEAKER_01: that some people have and that doesn't transfer to your spouse.
37:17
SPEAKER_00: And I think Hillary thought because Bill is super charming.
37:21
SPEAKER_01: Like like Bill Clinton is Obama.
37:24
SPEAKER_01: If you said if Obama ushered in Trump, I would say Clinton ushered in Obama.
37:29
SPEAKER_01: I think he really learned how to speak in that cadence and stuff,
37:32
SPEAKER_01: and created his own cadence for Bill Clinton.
37:35
SPEAKER_01: But Bill Clinton was an incredible rotator, and Hillary's not.
37:39
SPEAKER_01: She's got an annoying voice.
37:40
SPEAKER_01: I don't think people really liked how she didn't stand up to Bill with all the stuff
37:47
SPEAKER_01: that went down with Monica Lewinsky.
37:49
SPEAKER_01: I think there's a lot of weird stuff there, and she's not Bill Clinton.
37:53
SPEAKER_01: And I think there's just something to be said for that.
37:55
SPEAKER_01: And just because your last name's Clinton doesn't mean you get all of the things
37:58
SPEAKER_01: that made Bill Clinton Bill Clinton.
38:00
SPEAKER_01: You don't get that now.
38:01
SPEAKER_00: The nepotism only extends so far, and it doesn't
38:04
SPEAKER_01: always include the talent.
38:06
SPEAKER_01: No, no, it definitely includes the negative.
38:09
SPEAKER_01: If somebody hates your dad, they hate you too.
38:11
SPEAKER_01: That's right.
38:12
SPEAKER_00: Turns out.
38:13
SPEAKER_00: That's how it goes.
38:15
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, kind of crazy.
38:16
SPEAKER_00: Well, we'll see what happens.
38:18
SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: All right.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: Well, good luck to everybody who's working the campaigns.
38:24
SPEAKER_00: Appreciate all you guys do for democracy.
38:28
SPEAKER_00: And we hope that the Republicans win and the Democrats lose.
38:32
SPEAKER_01: Hey, listen, Reagan.
38:33
SPEAKER_01: What's that?
38:34
SPEAKER_01: I voted by mail.
38:36
SPEAKER_01: I put my ballot in the mail that's going to Kirk County from,
38:39
SPEAKER_01: and I put it in Salem mailbox today.
38:42
SPEAKER_01: So now I'm going to track it and see how long it takes me.
38:44
SPEAKER_01: Good for you, Bryan.
38:45
SPEAKER_01: For that ballot to get to be counted.
38:47
SPEAKER_01: Good job.
38:47
SPEAKER_01: In my count of clerks.
38:48
SPEAKER_01: Good job.
38:49
SPEAKER_01: I'm curious to see what happens.
38:50
SPEAKER_00: Really the only campaign that desperately wants your ballot is the Drazen campaign.
38:54
SPEAKER_00: I think everybody else for the most part is good without it.
38:57
SPEAKER_00: I dropped mine in the Dropbox the other day.
39:01
SPEAKER_00: It's the earliest I've ever voted.
39:02
SPEAKER_00: I usually hold my ballot to see what mail I get.
39:05
SPEAKER_00: And I was like...
39:06
SPEAKER_00: I'm done with this election.
39:07
SPEAKER_00: Get me out of here.
39:07
SPEAKER_01: So I voted.
39:09
SPEAKER_01: Nobody's texting me.
39:11
SPEAKER_01: Again, Vicky's getting a bunch.
39:12
SPEAKER_01: She gets a bunch of Cliff Benz texts and stuff to vote, and I haven't gotten one.
39:16
SPEAKER_01: So I must be on the do not call list.
39:19
SPEAKER_00: No, it's women, I think, that they're going after.
39:22
SPEAKER_00: Hell yeah.
39:23
SPEAKER_00: We didn't get an email from Drazen,
39:24
SPEAKER_00: and I think that she's being smart with her resources in terms of not spending them.
39:30
SPEAKER_00: Because I do this thing where I'm like, wait a minute, why hasn't she contacted me?
39:33
SPEAKER_00: Why doesn't she want my vote?
39:34
SPEAKER_00: And I'm like, she probably knows she's getting my vote, so she didn't contact me.
39:37
SPEAKER_01: Good job, guys.
39:38
SPEAKER_00: You figured it out.
39:39
SPEAKER_00: You did your list right.
39:40
SPEAKER_01: Well, if you want to help Republicans win, go to GOTVOregon.com.
39:44
SPEAKER_01: Sign up for two hours this weekend.
39:46
SPEAKER_01: Go do some ballot chasing.
39:47
SPEAKER_01: Help out.
39:49
SPEAKER_01: It doesn't matter what county you're in.
39:50
SPEAKER_01: You can help Christine out.
39:52
SPEAKER_01: You can help our legislative candidates.
39:55
SPEAKER_01: Now, if you're a Democrat listening to this and you haven't voted yet, you don't need to.
39:58
SPEAKER_01: You're good.
39:59
SPEAKER_01: Just hold on to your ballot.
40:00
SPEAKER_01: I think you should protest vote this year.
40:03
SPEAKER_01: It looks apparently like enough Democrats that have voted, so you can stay home.
40:06
SPEAKER_01: And then you can be proud of that.
40:09
SPEAKER_01: Thanks, buddy.