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Local Government Elections Turnout · Drive with John Perlman

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Wayne Sussman joins us now for his take on the
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: day so far. Wayne, a very good afternoon to you. Turnout,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: patterns of turnout, anything out there that's catching your eye
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: and that we need to know about? Good afternoon.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, John. Good to speak to you. So obviously,
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: this is a very dynamic process. A lot of votes
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: are being counted. Some of the data coming out of
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: the IC is a bit slow. My sense is in
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: the early mornings in suburban areas, there was a very
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: big voter turnout. And I think voter turnout tapered off
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: in the late morning, early afternoon, because it's a very, well,
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about Johannesburg now, of course, and across Gateng,
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: a very hot late morning and early afternoon. And, of course,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: the concerns about rain. So it remains to be seen. Look,
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: our polls are open from 7 to 9. Maybe some
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: people took the day off and there's going to be
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: a rush in the polls in the last few days.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: It's hard to determine who's really winning right now. But
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: I do think there is a suburban differential turnout advantage,
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: which I think would favor parties like the Democratic Alliance,
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: possibly to some extent Action SA. But it remains to
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: be seen what those accurate numbers are. I know the
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: IEC is doing a briefing shortly.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll have to listen out for that and
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: get those numbers and feed them back into, you know,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: do we look at history? Do we go back to
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: 2021 and say, well, this happened then and therefore? Or
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: is too much changed in the political dynamics of the
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: country over the intervening period?
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: I asked precisely that question. I voted this morning at
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: a particular time. So I was given the figure and
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: I said, How does this compare to five years ago?
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: And I didn't get, and I spoke to the three
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: parties which are outside my polling station. None of them
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: could really answer the question. So we always have to keep,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: compare apples with apples. And you raise a very good point.
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: So let's take Ekuruleni, areas like Foslo, Raskatlahong, the inner
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: city of Johannesburg, where we're watching them counter with SISWE
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: and seeing how well they're going to do. Of course,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: they didn't participate in 2021. Um, my sense right now
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: is that I've got a feeling we're a bit behind
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: where we were a few years ago. That's just my gut.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: But look, there are a few hours to go. Uh,
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: there are a number, there's about four hours to go,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: just under four hours. So hopefully there'll be a, people
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: will turn out in the last four hours.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: And, and just in terms as a little look ahead
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: till tomorrow, um, to tomorrow, Wayne, um, Things tend to
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: move slow, slow, then they suddenly go quickly and there's
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: a flurry of information and we try and wrap our
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: heads around both the numbers and their implication. Do we
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: know which areas report more quickly, either in terms of
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: specific metros or areas within those metros, for example?
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Great question. So just my secret is I go to
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: sleep very early on election night because voting is very
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: slow and I need to be able to crunch the numbers.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Counting is slow. I think counting will be even slower
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: this time because of the length of the ballot sheet
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: and the number of parties participating. So typically what happens
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: is the early hours of the morning, You'll see some
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: rural areas of the northwest, the western part of the
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: eastern Cape, western Cape and northern Cape come in. The
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: big urban areas, I think we'll start seeing at about
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: 7 a.m. We'll start getting ideas. But typically areas like
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Mokhali City, Mfuleni, I think we'll have a very good
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: picture of them by about 6 o'clock tomorrow morning. Usually
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: they count faster. But again, this is a very dynamic process.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: And let me just say, in 2021, places like Mfuleni
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: and Mukhali City, Krugersdorp, Van der Velde Park, gave us
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: very good indications of the national picture. So we can
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: get trends from these large cities which are not metropolitan areas.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Wayne Sussman, election analyst. I'm tempted to
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: say off to bed you go, but it is a
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: little early. But an early night in preparation for a
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: long day tomorrow. And everybody else working with the numbers,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I'm sure, could certainly do with some sleep. Quite hard, though,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: when all the possibilities and forecasts are racing around your head.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: 21 minutes past five.