Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Wheat, Weather & Risk | Grain Market Talk April 24th, 2026

Transcript

Wheat, Weather & Risk | Grain Market Talk April 24th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
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• 0:06
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• 0:12
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• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Today's Friday.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to do a little green talk here.
• 0:25
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• 0:26
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• 0:30
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• 0:33
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• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Alright, today I've got Jaden with us here today.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk a little bit about the planning progress this week.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about the wheat market, and then we're going to talk about a soybean rally.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going?
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_02: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_02: How about yourself?
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Not too bad.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh going into a nice weekend, had a lot of planning progress out in the countryside this week.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: Uh tell me a little bit about how the U.S.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: was sitting on Monday to start off this week on planning progress, Jaden.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Mike.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: So overall the U.S.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: was about 11% planted on corn.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: That's right in line with uh last year, and we're a little above the five-year average of 9%.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: But the thing that kind of stood out to me was probably um the progress Iowa had on Monday.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, last year they were about 16% planted as of April 19th, and this year they're about 2% planted, so that stands out just a bit.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_02: The biggest producing corn steak state was a little behind there with some pre-sip they've received over the past week or two.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_02: But with the conditions this week, and you know, most row crop farmers are pretty well equipped.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_02: I think we we should have made a lot of progress this week.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: I s I think so too.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of the row crop farmers we work with here, almost everybody started this week, it seemed like.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: Even the guys in Iowa for most part, uh eastern Minnesota started.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_01: I know Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, that area did get hit on Thursday night again, so they maybe got planted for a day or two uh through a lot of those areas.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: But locally here, I'd say you're at least you're probably done with one crop.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like you've probably finished planting corn, just starting on soybeans before this weekend's rains.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_01: This area here around like Sioux Falls, western Minnesota, we we missed out on the rain last night.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you go a little further east, they they did get rain again and got rained out.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: So still really wet in Iowa.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: It'll be limited progress, but I do think that it'll be a pretty big jump week over week in progress.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: Thing that stands out yet again this year is compared to the five-year average, you continue to plant soybeans at a faster rate in the United States, and that showed it again in Monday, and it will again next Monday.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: So uh one of the things I sent Cade a couple weather maps, I'll have him pull up here just on uh those recent rains and uh a little bit of the forecasted rain.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: So this one here, I believe, Cade, was this the uh past seven days?
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: So you can see that a little bit wet to the east, still absolutely nothing in the western corn belt for Nebraska specifically and South Dakota and western Minnesota.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: We're dry up here, so we would love a nice inch of rain here.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: In the next map, you're gonna see that uh we're gonna be looking.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_01: This is an AI map, which I thought was interesting.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: It kind of combines, it seems like, the Euro model and the GFS.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_01: So it's a little more accurate than just picking one of the two, I feel like it kind of combines them.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: Um it looks like we're maybe gonna get an inch of rain here until about Tuesday, hopefully over the weekend, Sunday, Monday.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: And that'd be very welcome.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: And then this model actually I thought was interesting because the eastern part of the the corn belt there, kind of eastern Iowa, it didn't show quite as excess of rain in that part of the world, which I thought would be a little bit more beneficial to planning progress, Jaden.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_02: Right, in eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_02: They're they kind of need it right now, so it looks like over the you know weekend here we'll we'll get some good rainfall in those areas.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_01: I think so too.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: We've got their planning progress report out on Monday, so it that'll be interesting to watch here.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_01: And the rains over the weekend, maybe we'll trade a little bit of it, but probably not.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh looking at a few other things, let's talk about the wheat market here.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: Uh when I look at the wheat market, and you know, most of the day here was pretty quiet across the egg space, uh, at least midday, but the volatility in the recent sessions, Jaden, it's been really centered around the wheat market and on those prices, just given the back half of yesterday's surge higher and then a little bit of a pullback today.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh energy prices, those as well.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: That's been a really two-sided trade.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: Not a whole lot going on there.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_01: No significant change in the standoff between uh the U.S.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: and Iran for the Strait of Hormuz and the the ceasefire.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: So while the fragile U.S.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: Iran ceasefire appears to be holding for now, the U.S.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: naval blockade on Iranian ports continues for the time being.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_01: So that's far from over, but a little bit quieter this week after the ceasefire did get put on uh after Vance uh canceled his Pakistan trip and Trump put that ceasefire on.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: So a little bit of a taco again here, and uh the uh the situation, anyways, didn't really escalate any further on on that portion of things.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: But the wheat market's interesting, yeah.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_01: And uh there are a few things I really want to focus on with the wheat market specifically.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: Uh one would be the balance sheet.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_01: Now, uh Kate, if you got it, cool, bring it up, no big deal otherwise.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: But uh one of the things we are looking at is the wheat the wheat balance sheet in the United States is pretty flush still for old crop.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we have plenty of wheat around high-ending stocks, so even if we have a poor crop here in the United States this year, doesn't matter really.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: We've got enough to carry out into new crop.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_01: But here's the thing we have a pretty high percentage of the United States winter wheat production is in a drought right now, the highest since 22, I believe, Jaden.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um that's a problem.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: Things have headed out maybe two weeks ahead of normal.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: Looks like the wheat the the rain is gonna miss them.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: That would save them here.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: It's gotta happen super fast if it did.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you know, when I look at this wheat market, it's gone up a lot.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: But uh did we price ourselves out of the world export market now?
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: Are we uncompetitive with this rally?
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we might have, Mike.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, you look at a 30 cent rally yesterday in the wheat market, and I I'm kind of looking at how it you know supports the other markets.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_02: We could only muster a two cent rally in the corn market yesterday.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's a little disappointing.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_02: But yeah, like you said, I I think this wheat rally probably does put us out of the global market a little bit.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: And then by the time you look at uh on winter wheat specifically, you go up another 30 cents or so around today's close.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you've got a lot of option exposure, around seven bucks, I know.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: So it's gonna be a very difficult road if you go more than 30 cents higher on that winter wheat market to try to break through that level.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of significant resistance between priced out of the export market globally.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: We still have a lot of old crop, and you're looking at a situation where most of the weather's probably ran its course on the wheat market, but uh that seven dollar level, it's gonna be a big resistance number to try to break through.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_01: So, what what can you tell me about?
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_01: We had a pretty massive rally yesterday.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: What can you tell me about the sell-off today and some of the reasoning behind that?
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think a lot of the sell-off today had to do maybe with uh, like I said, uh outside markets like the crude oil market we look right now.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's only down a buck.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: We were down about two dollars earlier, but maybe just geopolitical attention's easing just to touch today, may maybe had had to do with it selling off today.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: How about on the soybean side of things?
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_01: We uh early week we had a pretty good soybean rally.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: We pushed up within a penny of old contract highs on November soybeans.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh soybean oil traded to three-year highs.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh what were some of the reasons you thought for soybeans and soybean oil running up?
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Mike, I think a lot of the soybean, the reason for the soybean rally, I mean, we're seeing really strong domestic crush and demand.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_02: Um, continue to, you know, crush a lot of soybeans domestically, and also just the whole geopolitical tension deal and the crude oil being at um high, higher levels just just overall um increases the odds of us crushing more soybeans, I think, because crushers are making more money.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_02: So um I think those a couple of those reasons together is kind of why we saw you know multi-year highs in the soybean oil market.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: I would say so as well.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: Uh something to keep an eye on there as we've really punched higher, especially in more new crop, old crop period, it just doesn't seem like the spread action I've seen where July to like November, for example, has gotten under 20 cents now this week.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: It just wouldn't appear that the funds think that the trade talks or deal that is supposed to happen on the 14th and 15th of May doesn't look like they're gonna buy old crop soybeans.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_01: If a deal gets done, hopefully that means they're still gonna buy a lot of new crop beans.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe they uh maybe they're not gonna have the soybean acres uh in the United States as well.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_01: The RVO news recently has been very optimistic as well.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: So they've kind of held the new crop months up at some higher levels, pushed contract highs.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: Old crop really, if you want to look at the most boring chart ever, Jaden, that July soybean contract.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's not just been super sideways lately, but in this uptrend here lately as well, it's been very boring.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_01: So uh some very interesting things to keep an eye on.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: Drought maps, interesting to keep an eye on, I think, going forward as well.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: The most of the cornbelt's pretty white, specifically the eastern corn belt.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: Almost all of the South United States, super drought, almost all of the west United States, pretty drought.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh kind of just the fringe area is getting pressured there a little bit, Jaden.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: So those are some of the main things that I know we're talking about here this week with our row crop guys uh in the United States.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: Any final thoughts for our listeners this week that you're keeping an eye on?
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: Uh thing I'm keeping an eye on a little bit is just the corn market, December corn charts starting to look pretty good here.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_02: And with the whole fertilizer situation and the you know, the whole story of maybe some corn acres being flipped at beans, I I think I can paint a pretty bullish picture going for it here in the corn market.
• 10:03
  SPEAKER_01: On the outside market news and just money flow, I would argue the equities along with a few other things really taking a risk on perspective.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_01: S P 500 back up to record highs.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the crude oil market's kind of settled back a little bit here too.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_01: So it seems like uh you are looking at uh more of a risk on trade lately, I think, money flow wise, uh, and that's been favoring some of these other outside investments and kind of going away from some of the inflation hedging and whatnot.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_01: So uh keep an eye on that.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: But thank you for your time today.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: I appreciate it.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for tuning in, Jaden.