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What Russia's election means for the war in Ukraine · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Now to Russia, and after a three-day election there, the
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  Speaker 1: political party is aligned with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has
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  Speaker 1: expanded its control of the state Duma, the country's lower
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  Speaker 1: chamber of parliament. United Russia won a record supermajority with
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  Speaker 1: around 58% of the vote, which would allow it to
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  Speaker 1: change the constitution. Preliminary results show it will get 355
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  Speaker 1: of the Duma's 450 seats. It was the first vote
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  Speaker 1: held since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Political
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  Speaker 1: parties opposing the war were banned for the first time.
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  Speaker 1: Voting was held in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine. Western
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  Speaker 1: observers said the election was neither free nor fair. More
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  Speaker 1: on this. We can speak now with Yaroslava Barbieri. She's
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  Speaker 1: a research fellow with the Russia and Eurasia program at
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  Speaker 1: Chatham House UK. Her work focuses on democracy, political participation
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  Speaker 1: and disinformation. Welcome to the program. Yaroslava, in this election,
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  Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin called on Russians to show their support for
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  Speaker 1: troops fighting in Ukraine. Did they do that?
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  Speaker 2: Well, certainly we can expect the Kremlin to leverage the
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  Speaker 2: widely fabricated electoral results to send the message of a
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  Speaker 2: unified country around the Kremlin's objective to destroy Ukraine and
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  Speaker 2: continue the war. And so when you also look at
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  Speaker 2: the supermajority reconfirmed of United Russia, but also the votes
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  Speaker 2: for the other parties as part of the systemic oppositions,
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  Speaker 2: ultimately all of these parties embrace a pro-war message. So
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  Speaker 2: that's certainly something we can expect from the Kremlin, this
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  Speaker 2: message domestically of a unified country around the idea of
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  Speaker 2: continuing the war.
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  Speaker 1: So given that, how might Vladimir Putin use the results
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  Speaker 1: of this election to further his war aims in Ukraine?
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  Speaker 2: Well, so as I mentioned domestically, he will reinforce this
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  Speaker 2: message that despite growing potential discontent with the consequences of
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  Speaker 2: the war, whether it's inflationary pressures or security vulnerabilities linked
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  Speaker 2: to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries or Walburys warehouses,
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  Speaker 2: whether it's domestic discontent with The domestic repressions of the
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  Speaker 2: Kremlin we've seen with the Internet throttling and crackdown on VPNs.
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  Speaker 2: or it's simply discontent also with the mounting casualties. Ultimately,
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  Speaker 2: this discontent does not translate into a moral opposition to
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  Speaker 2: the war. But also internationally, the Kremlin will be able
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  Speaker 2: to send this message that Russia remains united, that no
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  Speaker 2: international sanctions or diplomatic pressure will be able to fracture
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  Speaker 2: Russia's elite. And also, let's not forget that these so-called
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  Speaker 2: elections were also held in Russia-occupied territories, with electoral officers
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  Speaker 2: being accompanied door to door with armed.
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  Speaker 3: Men as a form of intimidation.
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  Speaker 2: And ultimately, this internationally will allow the Kremlin to send
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  Speaker 2: the message that these territories will remain part of the
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  Speaker 2: Russian Federation. And so this also ultimately signals that the
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  Speaker 2: Kremlin does not intend to return these territories to Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: We often hear reports that Russia is having difficulty finding
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  Speaker 1: new recruits for its war against Ukraine. What's the likelihood
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  Speaker 1: that President Putin will order large-scale mobilization following these elections?
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  Speaker 2: So the widespread consensus was that if Putin were to
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  Speaker 2: resort to this decision, which we assume politically will be unpopular,
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  Speaker 2: they will have to wait until the end of these elections.
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  Speaker 2: Let's not forget the last time that the Kremlin announced
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  Speaker 2: a partial mobilisation in September 2022, it backfired.
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  Speaker 3: This is why the Kremlin for many.
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  Speaker 2: Years, despite its growing problems with offsetting the kill ratio
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  Speaker 2: with its recruitment rates on a monthly basis, has.
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  Speaker 3: Stopped itself from resorting to this decision.
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  Speaker 2: But nonetheless, there is suspicion that the Kremlin might resort
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  Speaker 2: to this unpopular choice. Possibly it might decide to continue
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  Speaker 2: with the current covert mobilization. And let's not also forget
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  Speaker 2: that North Korea might choose to deploy some troops to
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  Speaker 2: support Russia's war effort in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: So it's still hard to say whether.
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  Speaker 2: The Kremlin might go for this risky choice, but it's
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  Speaker 2: a certain possibility because ultimately it's objective to continue its
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  Speaker 2: war on Ukraine that has not changed.
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  Speaker 1: Russian officials said that during the election, Ukraine launched a
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  Speaker 1: barrage of around a thousand drones at Russia. How much
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  Speaker 1: pain is Ukraine inflicting on the Kremlin with its drone campaign?
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  Speaker 2: Well, we know that Ukraine has already managed to significantly
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  Speaker 2: undermine Russia's oil refinery capability and therefore it has directly
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  Speaker 2: hit Ukraine.
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  Speaker 3: A direct source of the Kremlin's war machine.
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  Speaker 2: And the systematic targeting of Russia's energy infrastructure has also
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  Speaker 2: resulted in localised fuel shortages that, of course, have led
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  Speaker 2: to growing domestic discontent But also we've seen an increased
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  Speaker 2: targeting of commercial infrastructure, such as the Walburys and Ozon warehouses.
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  Speaker 3: And ultimately, it's all part of.
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  Speaker 2: Ukraine's strategy also of bringing the war home to Russians
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  Speaker 2: and fundamentally rupturing that Kremlin social contract that they will
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  Speaker 2: be able to shield the Russian population from any instability or.
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  Speaker 3: Reality of the war. But this is increasingly not becoming possible.
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  Speaker 3: And so when you look at opinion poll trends, which.
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  Speaker 2: We always have to take with a pinch of salt
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  Speaker 2: in authoritarian states, but we do see this increasing struggle
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  Speaker 2: for the Kremlin to isolate itself the Russian population.
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  Speaker 3: From the reality of the war. And that, in a way,
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  Speaker 3: applies a degree of pressure.
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  Speaker 1: Jaroslava, thank you very much for your insights. That was
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  Speaker 1: Jaroslava Barbieri, Research Fellow at Chatham House UK.
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  Speaker 3: Thank you.