Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Revealing the BEST Picks for Week 12 Right Now!
Transcript
- 0:03Yeah, welcome back Targeting winners, a college football
- 0:07betting podcast. We are getting ready for Week
- 0:0912, well into November, well into midweek action.
- 0:13It's a wonderful time to be alive.
- 0:14Most wonderful time of the year, Christmas.
- 0:16Maybe in this household, but not on this show.
- 0:19Maybe it's college football. I am Darren as always, I am
- 0:23joined by Pete from God knows where you are this week man.
- 0:26But it's good to see you. We haven't heard from in a few
- 0:28days. Good to see you breathing and
- 0:29living. We always appreciate that And
- 0:31Tim down in Florida. Tim, we'll start with you.
- 0:34How we doing today? Doing good.
- 0:36I'm in an undisclosed location back in the bunker.
- 0:38I was going to say I'm not sure what prison that is, but they
- 0:41have nicely painted walls. So well, thank you for getting
- 0:44getting an upsail. Nice upscale stealth that they
- 0:48put you in. And Pete, how are we doing
- 0:50today? Not too bad, enjoying the
- 0:53Christmas season apparently. So all is good.
- 0:55I'm glad to be here and Eric I. Have one tree for each of you
- 0:58guys. I just want you to know.
- 1:01I want the pretty gold 1 back there.
- 1:03I don't know what that I think that's the crystal tree.
- 1:06This. I don't know what the hell this
- 1:07is and the green 1 is going to be a Grinch theme.
- 1:11I like that. OK, cool.
- 1:13Yeah, she she does good work. I.
- 1:15Don't know, nothing to do with college football, but I did see
- 1:19an instructional video for some reason.
- 1:23It's a funny reel of a nurse who works in the ER and you go quick
- 1:27review with all these different little Christmas trees.
- 1:29No no, no, no, do not put that up.
- 1:33He has experience with Christmas trees I guess.
- 1:36If I could even just, if somebody could videotape the
- 1:39process of taking all this stuff out of the garage and if I had a
- 1:44dollar for every time she looked at something and said, where did
- 1:46this go last year? I, I would be loaded.
- 1:49I I wouldn't even need to be doing this show or.
- 1:51Maybe get a lot of views. I mean they have videos of
- 1:53people mowing lawns and and just speeding it up and you know,
- 1:56watching mow the lawn and people like watch it.
- 1:58So I'm sure. It's, I mean you.
- 2:00Guys just want to get her working.
- 2:03But believe me when I tell you this is just the tip of the
- 2:06iceberg. It's.
- 2:07Oh, that's only one room in a house.
- 2:08That's it. Can't be the only room.
- 2:10I mean, I think I took you guys on a tour last year.
- 2:12It was just. Well, in July you still had a
- 2:14couple up and like down stairs. The the Grinch tree has been up
- 2:18all year long just re themed depending on the time of year
- 2:22so. OK, red, white and blue for 4th
- 2:24or the. July Tree.
- 2:25Halloween Tree. Easter Tree, whatever, Arbor
- 2:30Day, you know, whatever it is that she's got a theme for.
- 2:32But like I said, if she does good work, it makes her happy.
- 2:36My garage looks like the backroom of Hobby Lobby in the
- 2:39offseason. Yeah.
- 2:40Whatever. Well, if she's all right, nobody
- 2:44cares about any of that crap. Let's get into why everybody
- 2:46watches us. Idiots.
- 2:47So we are starting week 12A lessened weekday slate tonight.
- 2:52We got a couple games on Friday which we're actually going to
- 2:54get into because Pete has a bet on both of those.
- 2:57There is one game tonight kicking off 7:30 Eastern and
- 3:01Pete will start with you here because you do have a futures
- 3:03bet on one of these teams to win the Sunbelt.
- 3:07We've got Troy travelling to Old Dominion, this spread open at 11
- 3:111/2. Looking at DraftKings, it's down
- 3:13to Troy only getting 10 with a total of 53 1/2.
- 3:18Pete, don't know how hardcore you've been fouling Troy other
- 3:21than maybe checking the standings every couple of weeks
- 3:23or so, but let's start with you. You got any thoughts or liens on
- 3:26tonight's game? Yeah, that's, I mean, that's
- 3:29about it. What I've been doing is just
- 3:30keeping an eye on them. I mean, I'm not that optimistic
- 3:32about them winning this game outright, which I would of
- 3:34course need for the win here. Total is 52 1/2.
- 3:37I I thought about the under here, but I decided not to play
- 3:40it just because I didn't figured I'd jinx myself by going with
- 3:42the under if I'm trying to get Troy to win because I think they
- 3:45got to score a lot of points to do so.
- 3:46So I think it's a bit of a challenge here for for Troy this
- 3:50week. So I'd love to see him win.
- 3:51I'm going to keep an eye on it tonight, but I'm not overly
- 3:53optimistic. But it'd be really nice to see
- 3:55them win. Tim, any thoughts on this?
- 3:59Yeah, I mean, I was actually leaning toward each younger as
- 4:01well, so I don't know if that bodes well for you or not, but
- 4:05if I'm as hot as I was last week, yeah, maybe I don't bode
- 4:07well for you. But yeah, I was leaning for the
- 4:08younger as well. I decided not to pull the
- 4:10trigger. Slightly into Troy, but
- 4:13obviously I wish I would have done it at 11 1/2 as opposed to
- 4:16the 10. I know their quarterback got
- 4:19injured early in the year, but they they seem to turn it around
- 4:21with with the new guy behind the behind the line.
- 4:24But the Old Dominion apparently is a turnover machine.
- 4:27And I don't mean like defensively they force them.
- 4:29I mean like they fumble like there's no tomorrow.
- 4:32So asking a team that can't hold onto the ball to cover 10
- 4:37worries me a tad If I had to bet this game it would be Troy plus
- 4:42the points if anything, but nothing official here for me all
- 4:50right let's get into Friday's two game slate.
- 4:52We got a couple of good ones here, some some ranked teams in
- 4:55action. All right, I'm doing well.
- 5:01God damn Cardinals losing the. I know What the heck happened
- 5:06there? That was that was just
- 5:07unexpected week. Yeah.
- 5:10It's been a crazy year. I mean, it's been really hard to
- 5:12call some of these things. It's crazy.
- 5:15It's just me anymore. Yeah, so, so total on this game,
- 5:2051 1/2. I am playing it under on this
- 5:25game for a couple of reasons #1 Louisville did look pretty
- 5:28pathetic last week. Clemson ranks in the bottom 25th
- 5:32nationally in place per minute, so I expect a bit of a slow
- 5:34grind, at least from their side. Either team's been all that
- 5:37explosive of late, like subnets, just yards per attempt or down
- 5:42nearly 1.3 versus versus last year.
- 5:46So that's a, that's a, that's a big deal, right?
- 5:47We've not seen the explosiveness here.
- 5:49So I think this will be suppressed.
- 5:50I don't, you know, I don't think it's going to be a really low
- 5:52scoring game, but something like 27 or 20 would not surprise me.
- 5:56So that fits the under. So I'm going with one unit.
- 5:59I'm the under of 51 1/2. Tim, I know you'd love you some
- 6:03Clemson. Any thoughts here?
- 6:05Yeah, I mean, Louisville should win this game by all counts, but
- 6:10that's which is why in my gut, Dabo likes to mess up the works
- 6:13a little bit. Yeah, I could totally see this
- 6:17is if it was if this was in the RPO, it would be a hard pass for
- 6:20me. But I can totally see Clemson
- 6:24going in and just running away with this somehow.
- 6:27They shouldn't, but I can see them doing this.
- 6:29But yeah, it's for me. It definitely hard pass if it
- 6:32was in the RPO. Yeah, I mean, I, I have the
- 6:38slightest of hopes that Louisville can still make the
- 6:40ACC title game because that conference is such a dumpster
- 6:44fire. But they need to win out here.
- 6:46And I, I don't know, Miller Moss has not been the guy we had all
- 6:50hoped. We figured he gets with Jeff
- 6:52Brahm, the quarterback whisperer and Louisville would go on to
- 6:55great things. Has not happened so far.
- 6:58He's he has been average at best.
- 7:00SO I would avoid this as well. But see, really, yeah.
- 7:04I mean I'm hoping for Louisville because very anti Clemson.
- 7:11Well, it's always good to be anti Clemson.
- 7:13I agree. Any team in Orange, actually so.
- 7:17We like the Flyers. What are you talking?
- 7:19About Well, for football, here we go.
- 7:21I mean, come on, You know, Florida, Miami, Clemson, Yeah,
- 7:24all the orange. Just go away.
- 7:27All right, the other day, Friday night, we've got Oregon hosting
- 7:31Minnesota. Was that their total 43 1/2 or
- 7:35got favored by 25 1/2? Pete again, you you've got a bet
- 7:39here what you got? I do.
- 7:41So how many times have I played Minnesota the under this this
- 7:45year? A number of times.
- 7:46A number of times I look at them.
- 7:47A number of times I played them this year.
- 7:49So the total that I got when I played it is 44 1/2.
- 7:51So let's come down a little bit to that 43 1/2, which does
- 7:54support the under. I'm going to play, right?
- 7:55It seems the money's going that direction.
- 7:58Minnesota's been a little better story than I thought they would
- 8:00be this year. But looking at what this game is
- 8:02going to do, I would imagine Oregon's going to get up by a
- 8:04couple pretty early ish and that I think it's going to turn into.
- 8:08And Minnesota just grinds anyway.
- 8:10And I think we're going to see Oregon kind of grinding some
- 8:12time as well because I think they will they'll be up and then
- 8:15they'll probably run more than 65% of the time if they get
- 8:18ahead. And I expect that to happen.
- 8:21So eat the clock. They both have good punters.
- 8:23So I expect some field position being played here could be
- 8:27rainy. I'm expecting maybe some
- 8:29showers, which was going to lead to this under as well, which
- 8:32could end up where they're playing.
- 8:33That turf can get a little slick.
- 8:35So that could hurt in terms of field goals as well.
- 8:37So I think there's a number of factors here playing into this
- 8:40under. So I am playing under 1 unit,
- 8:44Minnesota, Oregon 44 and A. Half, Jim.
- 8:48Thoughts. It's just weird playing the
- 8:50Under in any game involving Oregon.
- 8:53Usually you see them, you just bit, you know, over because
- 8:56they're going to. They're good for 4045 by
- 8:58themselves. But yeah, with the weather and
- 9:00everything, the way they like to control the clock for Minnesota,
- 9:03yeah, I could see it going either way.
- 9:05It's just, it just feels weird. It's a weird bet for me.
- 9:08It it does. And it took me all to look at
- 9:10this thing and scratch my head and say, do I really believe an
- 9:12under with Oregon? But right so.
- 9:16Well, last week was it the Oregon Iowa game, like 40 1/2,
- 9:19Tim and you and I were like, what the hell?
- 9:21This makes absolutely no sense. What was it like 30-4?
- 9:24It was like 18 to 16 or something like that.
- 9:27Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I agree with what
- 9:29Pete said here there. There is no slower team when it
- 9:32comes to pace of play offensively than Minnesota.
- 9:34I don't see a scenario against Oregon they're going to try and
- 9:36go any quicker to keep them off the field.
- 9:39Oregon's got a couple injuries on the offensive side.
- 9:42They may have trouble piling on here as well.
- 9:45So yeah, I love that bet. So OK.
- 9:49I'll move right along. I think we got one of yours
- 9:51coming up here, Darren. Yeah, that's me.
- 9:55All right, so I've got a one unit play or no, I'm sorry.
- 9:57I have a 2 unit play actually, and I pulled a total.
- 10:01Yeah, I went totals. I'm going over this game here.
- 10:03Now it's 48 1/2 and I know that South Carolina's offense is
- 10:08terrible, but we talked about the fired coach's bump that a
- 10:13lot of teams seemed to have. When head coach gets fired the
- 10:16the following week, the team is 7 and two against spread.
- 10:19Not while Shane Beamer wasn't fired here.
- 10:22Mike Shua, the offensive coordinator, was fired after a
- 10:24whopping 9 game stint as the OC of this team.
- 10:28And South Carolina stats were absolutely horrible offensively
- 10:31under this guy last year, 2024 S Carolina was great offensively,
- 10:36but Darrell C at that time left to take the head coaching job at
- 10:40App State. So I think with Shula leaving, I
- 10:44think it can only get better from here for for South
- 10:47Carolina. So the the two guys that are
- 10:49actually going to take over the play calling duties, both were
- 10:53on the offensive staff in 2024 when Lenora Sellers had quite a
- 10:56bit of success. So I'm, I'm expecting South
- 10:59Carolina's offense to improve enough to get this there.
- 11:03And despite as bad as they've been, I mean, they're still
- 11:05averaging almost 20 points a game.
- 11:06And let's face it, nobody's putting South Carolina offense
- 11:10together in 2025. But you look at the other side,
- 11:14first of all, South Carolina's defense is still really, really
- 11:16bad. That's going to be a problem
- 11:17against Texas A&M, whose offense is really, really good.
- 11:20Every game this year except one, they put up 31 points.
- 11:23And the only game they didn't was they put up 16 against
- 11:26Auburn. Auburn's defense is way better
- 11:29than South Carolina's, and all this talk about the A&M defense
- 11:32being good. They have been.
- 11:34But if you look at some of the games that they've played
- 11:36already, they've given up 24 to Texas, San Antonio, 22 to Utah
- 11:40State, 40 to Notre Dame, 42 to Arkansas, 25 to LSU.
- 11:46And even last week against a freshman quarterback making his
- 11:48first start, Missouri still put up 17.
- 11:50So this is a defense that can be had to some extent.
- 11:54So I'm looking at A&M to get 31 with no problem, which means I
- 11:57only need to get 20 out of South Carolina to make this happen.
- 12:01So I'm thinking the coordinator change is going to give them a
- 12:03little bit of a spark. I don't know if they're going to
- 12:06stay within the spread here, but if this ended up like 38 to 17
- 12:11or something like that, it wouldn't surprise me.
- 12:13I, I think you're going to see a little bit better effort
- 12:15offensively from South Carolina. So I went 2 units on the over
- 12:20and Pete, I'm dying to hear what you have to say because I know
- 12:22you're the you're the totals guy.
- 12:23I didn't even check with you. I was just like, they can't be
- 12:26this bad. I like it.
- 12:30I like it. Yeah.
- 12:30So I I kicked this game around a bit.
- 12:32My first thought, of course, was the under right.
- 12:33And the first number I had out of FanDuel was 47 1/2 and I was
- 12:37thinking under, but that everything you just said, I
- 12:40agree, right. So my thoughts were shifting
- 12:42that, well, maybe in this case this could be an over because of
- 12:46the change and that, that looks like there's money flowing that
- 12:49way 'cause they're over under 48 1/2.
- 12:50If you have any slide, I have 47 1/2.
- 12:52So I think you've got on the right side of the money at the
- 12:54moment. I think it makes sense.
- 12:56I, I agree with your, with your prognosis.
- 12:57This is the one I wasn't really sure where to go with it.
- 13:00South Carolina, it's going to be bad or are they going to look a
- 13:02little better? I, I agree with you, I think
- 13:05they'll look a little better this week.
- 13:07So I think, I think it's good that.
- 13:10Tim, I know this involves your your favorite team of 2025
- 13:12that's not named Florida State. What do you?
- 13:14Think about this game. Well, I like the bet.
- 13:18I do not care what the total ends up being as long as Texas
- 13:21A&M wins I'm it's nice to see Marcel Reed finally getting some
- 13:26run when they're talking about the Heisman, you know Urban
- 13:29Meyer on his podcast and some other people and Josh Pate and
- 13:33all the finally giving hey, pay attention to the guy down in
- 13:36College Station. So that will help out my bet a
- 13:39lot. I think if they keep winning, I
- 13:43got it. This should almost.
- 13:45I think if this, if they get one more win, I think I might almost
- 13:48lock it up. I think as long as Vanderbilt
- 13:53doesn't get by them, they should lock them up in the championship
- 13:55game. That'll be good for my future
- 13:57bet there. The win total bet already hit
- 14:00and I'm looking for see what the buyouts are a little bit early
- 14:04for. I have to check with get with
- 14:06you Pete, and check with that. If they're offering anything for
- 14:07the Heisman, I have to place my Heisman bet with you.
- 14:10But yeah, go A&M, total be damned.
- 14:14Just win the game, baby. Just win.
- 14:16As some old guy once said, just win baby.
- 14:23All right, what's the next game? The next game.
- 14:27Oh, it's one of mine. Woo.
- 14:30Hoo. The West Virginia hate you've
- 14:32been spewing the last few weeks. I know I.
- 14:36It's not acceptable, not acceptable.
- 14:37Last few days. Yeah, but I guess I'm going to
- 14:42spew a little bit more hate this week.
- 14:46Well, we got the two time zone travel here.
- 14:48We got West Virginia travelling to Arizona State.
- 14:51I like Arizona State at home. They're very good on 3rd down.
- 14:56They can stay out. I think they can control the
- 14:58ball a lot more. They'll stay on the field.
- 15:00They can score more points. West Virginia, they like to run
- 15:03like 5 plays a minute. So they're going to there's
- 15:05going to be plenty of scoring in this game.
- 15:08I think they could sputter out a couple times.
- 15:10I think Arizona State gets a few stops, especially on on 3rd
- 15:13down. Force a minute punting and they
- 15:16pull away. I do like Arizona covering the
- 15:1812 1/2 and a double feature for this one.
- 15:22I also like to over a 47 1/2 just because you know, for the
- 15:26little amount of time West Virginia is going to be on the
- 15:29field, if they're third down trends continue, I think they're
- 15:32still going to put up some points.
- 15:34I probably only need about, you know, 10, maybe 10 to 17 from
- 15:39them. I think Arizona State can take
- 15:40care of the rest, but I think it's going to be a like a 48,
- 15:44you know, 48 to 31 score or something like that.
- 15:47I, I suspect a high scoring game hits the over.
- 15:51So I like over 47 1/2 and I like Arizona State to cover 12 1/2.
- 15:56Your thoughts? I've.
- 16:01How Wesley might have found a quarterback in Scotty Fox, I
- 16:04don't know. Well, that'll help you over.
- 16:12Man, is, is, is Levin even playing in this game?
- 16:14I know you missed last week. I don't even know if he's in or
- 16:17not. That would certainly help your
- 16:19both of your bets. But Oh yeah, for sure.
- 16:22Oh, man, kind of kind of like West Virginia been doing the
- 16:24last couple weeks. I mean, I hope for your sake you
- 16:26get it right. But I'm I'm against this West
- 16:28Virginia slander, not going to lie.
- 16:31They've been improved exactly. And they've come along with the
- 16:36garbage we saw. I mean, they're certainly.
- 16:37Improving. So that's a good Oh yeah, they
- 16:39were absolute trash. I just can't maybe I just can't
- 16:41get that out of my mind. I was like, God, they look
- 16:43horrible. They they look so bad, but
- 16:46they're looking better, so Rich Rod's doing his thing or
- 16:48whatever it's let's look better so.
- 16:50Our after taste of mediocrity. So just never leaves Crazy 10
- 17:00yes, we're going in order here. So now we have OU tap, I think
- 17:07Yep, U tap. Oh boy.
- 17:09OK, we got the they're traveling up to Missouri and they are not
- 17:15good. They're averaging about 20
- 17:16points a game. Missouri isn't at or Missouri
- 17:19State isn't averaging that much more.
- 17:23They like to run the ball. The weather is going to be fine.
- 17:26I don't think that's going to help either team.
- 17:28Both of these offenses aren't really that wonderful.
- 17:31Missouri does have a better defense or Missouri State.
- 17:35Sorry, I just keep rambling on, but I like Missouri State to
- 17:39cover. I'm leaning towards the under of
- 17:4249 1/2, but I'm expecting a game, you know, 24 to 10,
- 17:47something like that. So I do like Missouri State to
- 17:51cover. What was the line on that one?
- 17:59I can. Get to the line, but I do have
- 18:00the under at 49 1/2. I think the line was what, 6 or
- 18:06something like that? I think it's it was 4 1/2.
- 18:09I can look real quick. Hold on.
- 18:13Yeah, that over under has gone up.
- 18:14It was 48 1/2. It's 49 1/2 now.
- 18:16So that's. Yeah, I got 4 1/2 Missouri State
- 18:19favored. Yeah, it was 4 1/2 as well.
- 18:23So that's my bet on that one. So under the 49 1/2 terrible
- 18:30game, that's could be a a candidate for snoozefest of the
- 18:35week Pete for for next week. Yeah, might be something not to
- 18:39watch here, but that's why I looked at it.
- 18:41I mean, I like your hunger here. I.
- 18:42I like watching somebody parallel park.
- 18:44A bus is like, you watch it and you're like, huh, why am I
- 18:47watching this? This is great.
- 18:49I guess I don't know. Not a game I'm going to be
- 18:52tuning into. I think The Hunger is a good
- 18:54play here. I.
- 18:55Well, hopefully it's on ESPN. We won't have to watch it 'cause
- 18:58we won't have it 'cause we have YouTube TV.
- 18:59So. Hopefully it's on ESPN.
- 19:01We're safe. All right, enough of my picks.
- 19:05Let's move on. We got Oklahoma, Alabama.
- 19:09Whose is this? That is mine.
- 19:12So total on this game that I have that I bet it's 46 1/2.
- 19:18I am leaning heavily, meaning obvious, I'm betting this.
- 19:22I'm leaning heavily into the fact that this is SEC game
- 19:25that's going to turn into a grind like these big ones
- 19:27typically do, right? When you get 2 big SEC teams
- 19:31playing each other it it tends to be a bit of a grind and
- 19:35that's what I fully expect will happen here.
- 19:37I mean, the weather's not going to be a factor.
- 19:40Defense, Alabama's defense is, is pretty gosh darn good.
- 19:43So that's certainly playing in here.
- 19:47There's a lot of pressure from Alabama's defense when the
- 19:49quarterback drops back, which is going to be a problem, and it's
- 19:52going to keep the quarterback running and moving, which is
- 19:54going to disrupt the continuity of Oklahoma.
- 19:58So I think it's going to be one of those games, right, where
- 20:00it's like a three and out kind of thing and just a lot of
- 20:03thinking. Duncan that's what I expect to
- 20:07see. So I think it's going to be a
- 20:08good game. So I do want to watch this one
- 20:10unlike the last one, but I do not think it's going to be high
- 20:13scoring. I do expect Alabama to win this
- 20:14game. So maybe something like, you
- 20:16know, 27 to 14 or something like that would maybe 17 would not
- 20:20would not surprise me. So I feel pretty confident in
- 20:22this one. So I like the under 46 1/2 one
- 20:24units. Yeah, I like both defenses here.
- 20:28I would love and Oklahoma will win.
- 20:29I really hope A&M out. That would so personal
- 20:33preference for Oklahoma, but yeah, I I kind of like that bet.
- 20:36I like the defenses here. Yeah, I mean, unless John Metier
- 20:41suddenly remembers that he was supposed to be good or played
- 20:44like he did in September, I don't know how Oklahoma's going
- 20:47to, you know, surpass 17 here, but their defense is certainly
- 20:52capable of of keeping Alabama totaled down as well.
- 20:56So, yeah, I I do like this if Metier all of a sudden, you
- 21:00know, just starts lighting it up.
- 21:03Maybe we're sweating this little because Alabama's defense isn't
- 21:06anything to write home about, but just just haven't seen it
- 21:09out of a tear ever since he came back from his hand surgery.
- 21:12So I also want Oklahoma to win, but for a completely different
- 21:17reason. They're currently sitting on 7.
- 21:19I have a future them at plus money winning at least a regular
- 21:23season game, so I would love to not sweat that.
- 21:27They do have two home games after this, one of them against
- 21:29LSU, so it's. There we go.
- 21:32But yeah, I would love Oklahoma to win this like 21 to 20 or
- 21:37something like that. That would be.
- 21:39Wonderful that would actually give me I was doing some numbers
- 21:41for our future stuff. I'd actually be positive and all
- 21:44my futures bets if Oklahoma hits whether Louisville will well
- 21:48Louisville wins a conference then we're way ahead but not
- 21:51looking likely. But yeah, I I think that we did,
- 21:55we didn't officially give out a money line sprinkle, but
- 22:00wouldn't be against throwing half a unit on the Sooners here.
- 22:03I like I. Like it?
- 22:07Oh, what's up next? Oh, the Belichicks on the road
- 22:11based on a. 17 God, what a horrible game.
- 22:16Here's. Who's best of the week and I
- 22:17submit you temp. Break out.
- 22:20LeBron, this, this is the Bronx butt cheeks game.
- 22:24I went all over the place in this stupid thing.
- 22:26And then I first, my first thought, North Carolina, they
- 22:29stink under, right? That was my first thought.
- 22:30And it looked a little closer. I was like, well, you know,
- 22:33they've been scored a little bit of late and you know, Wake could
- 22:36score a little bit. And that's a really low #38 1/2
- 22:38is the number that I have to say on the slide right there.
- 22:41So I went all over the map on this thing trying to figure out.
- 22:45So I thought, well, maybe I should, just shouldn't play it
- 22:47because I'm just on both sides of this thing.
- 22:48But that number seem pretty low to me.
- 22:51And I think North Carolina's offense has rebounded a bit,
- 22:54right? It seems to become they're
- 22:55hardly setting the world on fire, but they've gotten better.
- 22:58I think they can score some, right?
- 23:00It's a really low number. I expect Wake to score some on
- 23:03them. So and Wake does tend to play a
- 23:06faster tempo at home, so I expect to see some of that turn
- 23:10going here. So you know, I, I, I, this is a
- 23:12tough call. I'm not highly, highly confident
- 23:14in this one, but I just have a feel.
- 23:16This is kind of after I went through tons of data, it was a
- 23:18bit of a gut feel. So I'm actually playing the over
- 23:20here. So over 38 1/2 units.
- 23:25Interesting. What's North Carolina's record,
- 23:27Darren, Do you have an off hand? Because you got to, you got to
- 23:29win a little bit on them. Well that was that was shot the
- 23:32hell like 3 weeks ago. They have been playing better,
- 23:35but it's been it's been because of their defense.
- 23:38Gio Lopez has been complete ass since he came over.
- 23:42Sorry, it's just a fact. They're they're, they run slow.
- 23:45They're they're, they're like the AC CS version of Minnesota.
- 23:48They are in no rush to push the ball down the field.
- 23:52But defensively they're really good.
- 23:54They've been setting up their offense with with some promising
- 23:57drives in the last couple of games.
- 23:58So they're turning it around. But like Pete said about Wake
- 24:02Forest and North Carolina has an off game, Wade Force could get
- 24:06into 30s without too much trouble here.
- 24:08I kind of like they're playing better than I gave them credit
- 24:11for coming into the year. So.
- 24:13But yeah, 38 1/2 at first, like Pete, I was like, yeah, North
- 24:16Carolina's in this game. They won't get 38 the next two
- 24:19weeks put together. Like, you know what, Gio's not
- 24:22against the old pick sticks or turning the ball over.
- 24:26They do have a bad off, yeah. Wake Forest could be set up with
- 24:30some short fields here and easily get this to the over with
- 24:33no problem. Nice.
- 24:38I wish all the games would go the way we see them.
- 24:40Be wonderful, be great. We'd be geniuses.
- 24:44Mississippi State and Missouri. This is me simple handicap here.
- 24:49First of all, I got 6 1/2 on FanDuel.
- 24:51It is heavily juiced, but everywhere else I have access to
- 24:54was at 7:00. So I laid the little extra juice
- 24:55to get the 6 1/2 on FanDuel. Listen, Missouri's got a
- 25:00freshman quarterback making his second rear start.
- 25:02You've got one of the best running backs in the country
- 25:04going up against a defense that can't stop the run.
- 25:08Hello. This is not rocket science.
- 25:10Run the ball. Run the ball 50 times.
- 25:12Don't throw the ball. I mean, some quick numbers here.
- 25:16Let's see Mississippi State last in the SEC and rush yards
- 25:19allowed per game with 176. That is a ton of rush yards for
- 25:23an SEC defense, and they do like to pass.
- 25:28First of all, Blake Chapin was her.
- 25:29He is listed as probable as of last night.
- 25:32Whether he's 100%, not sure, but Mississippi State does like to
- 25:36pass Fluff Bothwell, who's a nice addition, but only 500 and
- 25:41138 yards. I think he's got for the year.
- 25:44But Missouri is also first in the SEC and pass defense, only
- 25:48allowing 143 yards a game. So Missouri's defense plays to
- 25:53to Mississippi State's strength, Missouri's strength running the
- 25:56ball that plays right into what Mississippi State cannot do well
- 25:59at all. So I didn't really go much
- 26:02further than that basic handicap cop, outcall whatever you want,
- 26:06just run the friggin ball 50 times, wear them down the
- 26:10second-half win this going away by 1721 points.
- 26:14I I didn't go 2 units on this because it just seemed like it
- 26:17made too much sense. But and Missouri's got to have
- 26:22this one and Mississippi State's run defense is terrible.
- 26:24So one unit, Missouri lay in the 6th and 1/2.
- 26:27Just run the damn ball and don't run the damn ball.
- 26:29I mean, you break the ball, that's it.
- 26:32Just run it. You've got the best running back
- 26:34in the world, for God's sakes. I like how in our old age we've
- 26:37all turned into Bill Parcells. Just run the ball and.
- 26:42Then you know, I, I look heavily at this under here, 51 1/2 if
- 26:46they're going to run the damn ball, which I expect they will
- 26:48run the damn ball, that under is really enticing.
- 26:50I didn't play it, but I kind of like that number because that's
- 26:52a pretty inflated number for me with a team with a team that's
- 26:55going to run a lot. So that is a definitely in
- 26:58there. So if you want a little sprinkle
- 26:59of something here, I do do kind of like that.
- 27:01Under 51 1/2 here. Now we got the last one.
- 27:07This is a very important game for me.
- 27:09We got BYU hosting TCU. OK, I need BYU to win for my win
- 27:14total. I went and put some square in
- 27:17the driver's seat facing off against Cincinnati, I believe
- 27:19next week for a spot in the Big 12 title game, which I also have
- 27:24them for the title future. So yeah, this is this is a big
- 27:29one. So I got the BYUI got them
- 27:32laying 4 1/2. Big part of it, you have TCU
- 27:36coming up into on the road. The last time I checked, they
- 27:41didn't build a Dome up in Utah. So this game will be played
- 27:45outside. It's going to be probably the
- 27:47low 40s, maybe even high 30s by the time the kickoff rolls
- 27:51around. And you know, BYU thinks, you
- 27:54know, cold weather, thin air night game, that's perfect.
- 27:58So that's, you know, and you know, TCU, they like to pass.
- 28:02They pass the ball a lot. But when that ball freezes, you
- 28:05know, they're down there in Texas.
- 28:06So I'm thinking they're not going to like the cold at all.
- 28:10I like BYU to pound the ball. Just run the damn ball, wear
- 28:14them down, pull away at the end. And I like BYU laying 4 1/2 at
- 28:20home against TCU. Ellis, I'm.
- 28:24Just going to say, bro, you've been in your Florida shell too
- 28:26long. You do know Texas gets winter,
- 28:28right? They get snow and things.
- 28:32That's not going to bother them. But TCU, man, they're chewing
- 28:35incest for me. They're like my Washington
- 28:37Capitals. I can't figure out to bet on
- 28:39them or against them. As soon as I saw you put that
- 28:42bet up, I'm like TCU, keep it away from me.
- 28:45I want nothing to do with it. But I do agree with what you
- 28:47said. BYU could certainly be in a
- 28:49situation to run the ball with RJ Martin, keep Josh Hoover and
- 28:53Lauren Frogs off the field. I do like this but if they if
- 28:58BYU covers it won't be because TCU hates the weather They they.
- 29:01Yeah, it'll be all right. Well, it won't be.
- 29:03It won't be a snow issue, I think.
- 29:04I mean, that weather line, if it does rain in the second-half,
- 29:07right, that ball's going to get slick, the field's going to get
- 29:09slick. That will be a problem.
- 29:10So rain is an issue able to suppress scoring.
- 29:13So I mean, I kind of like that under and the 51 sprinkle, maybe
- 29:16the under because of the weather.
- 29:17If it doesn't, OK, it's going to be closer to that.
- 29:19But yeah, if it rains, that will absolutely impact the
- 29:23second-half of this game. They do not have one.
- 29:25They have it up in Utah, though. I mean, I was up in Utah in
- 29:30August. There's still snow up there.
- 29:31So, so it'll be an it'll be, it'll be an adventure, that's
- 29:39for sure. So, all right, Well, any final
- 29:43thoughts You want to move on to the RPO?
- 29:46Let's RPO it. I came in with no thoughts.
- 29:49Let's get going. I rarely have thoughts.
- 29:54We go, all right, Darren, take us through it.
- 29:58All right, Notre Dame laying 12 1/2 at Pittsburgh with a total
- 30:01of 55 1/2. Tim, we'll start with you.
- 30:05This is a hard pass for me. I'm not going to touch it, not
- 30:08at all. Notre Dame by three scores beat.
- 30:13Yeah, total total's 55 1/2. I actually thought going the
- 30:15over here, I didn't, but I think Notre Dame's going to score a
- 30:17bunch and they're going to win this game, I guess.
- 30:19Michigan laying 12 1/2 at Northwestern, Total of 40 1/2.
- 30:23Pete, what's on your team? I kick.
- 30:26I kick the tires all over this thing.
- 30:27So I thought is this the time after a buy they come out and
- 30:30see what that offense can do. That's the only.
- 30:32So that's why I didn't play it because I thought that number
- 30:33was suppressed. Otherwise I would have gone the
- 30:35under. But I don't know what that
- 30:36offense might do after a buy. So we'll see what that.
- 30:39Yeah. I was leaning over but I will
- 30:43run. I will.
- 30:44I would bet Michigan to lay in the 12 1/2.
- 30:47I like it. Yeah, I I got no thoughts here.
- 30:50I. Mean I'm kind of biased because
- 30:51you know, my old office buddies kid plays for Michigan so I
- 30:54probably bet them to win anytime anyway, but OK.
- 30:57Well, that that. That I would.
- 31:03I would run away from this. Game.
- 31:06Hardcore South Florida The Bulls good chance to meet the group of
- 31:10five Rep laying 10 at Navy total of 64 1/2.
- 31:14Yeah, what do you do? I'm leaning Navy but at the end
- 31:17of the day I'll pass. But I'm I'm starting to like
- 31:19Navy there with the tent. And that feels, feels like a big
- 31:22number for, for, for Navy 64 if I mean, I didn't touch it 'cause
- 31:27that number just confused me. I was like, yeah, I think they
- 31:29could eventually win the game, but I don't have.
- 31:32Yeah, Blake Hornbat didn't play against Notre Dame last week.
- 31:35I don't know what his status is for this.
- 31:37Obviously, I would need to know that before making a play of any
- 31:39kind. So for now, it's Best Arkansas
- 31:42getting 6 as they visit the Brian Kelly Less LSU Tigers
- 31:47total of 57 1/2. Hey, what do you think?
- 31:50I think LSU is going to keel over and die on the field.
- 31:52So at the end of the day, I was going to go under on this.
- 31:54I I didn't play it, but I just don't think they're going to do
- 31:56much of anything. So that's my thought.
- 32:00I like LSU, not sure about their odds to win the lawsuit against
- 32:03Brian Kelly coming up, but I like LSU.
- 32:06Here the latest 6. No thoughts here in Arkansas
- 32:11defense and LSU offense. I don't even know if they can
- 32:14take advantage of it now. I wouldn't bet this game with
- 32:18your guys money so forget it. Iowa getting 7 as they travel
- 32:23out West for this hardcore rivalry that's been going on for
- 32:26at least a year. You hit a total of 48 1/2 Tim.
- 32:32What do you think? I like the over.
- 32:35I like the over 48 1/2. I got the two time zone things
- 32:38right pass on the game, but if I was going to bet this I'd run to
- 32:41the 48 1/2 over. Pete.
- 32:44Yeah, it's interesting. Then usually I say Iowa equals
- 32:47under no matter what, but in this case, I think it might be
- 32:49right. But I didn't didn't go that way.
- 32:51Yeah, I agree with that. I would I would lay the seven
- 32:54with with USC as well if I had to.
- 32:57Ah and the ACC the most cluster after the conference that we've
- 33:01seen. No offense to the Big 12, but AC
- 33:03CS trash Virginia getting 4 at Duke. 58 1/2 Pete, what do you
- 33:09think? I prefer they wouldn't play the
- 33:11game. We'll just move on to the next
- 33:12week, so I'm good. I got nothing.
- 33:16I would jump. That looks like a trap of
- 33:18Virginia getting 4I do like the under though. 58 1/2.
- 33:22I like the under. Yeah, again, much like Navy, I
- 33:25don't know if Chandler Morris is playing.
- 33:26He got knocked out of the loss last week to Wake Forest.
- 33:29So if you're interested in playing this game, see if see if
- 33:31he's in or not before you make it a bet.
- 33:33But I got nothing here. Ah, the fighting James
- 33:36Franklin's playing seven at the fighting Jonathan Smith, total
- 33:41of 48 1/2. Yeah.
- 33:42What do you think? Money line sprinkle.
- 33:47Let's go Penn State here. How is that a sprinkle when
- 33:51they're favored by 75? +7 OK, never mind, it's not a
- 33:56sprinkle. And where are your glasses?
- 33:59Pierce right here. I need them.
- 34:01You need them. It looks like a plus sign from
- 34:03here. I thought that looked funny.
- 34:05I'm like why? Are they?
- 34:07Why are they getting 7 paid help?
- 34:08I'll say that the police might play over.
- 34:11Sparty just got bent over by the NCAA so I don't know if they're
- 34:14demoralized or they come out pissed off.
- 34:16I think option B is they come out pissed, pissed off.
- 34:20So I think they might actually do something in this game.
- 34:22So I yeah, I'm intrigued to see what Sparty does here.
- 34:25I don't know if I'd bet then, but it's it's gonna be an
- 34:28interesting game, I think. Yeah, watching anything
- 34:31involving Aiden Childs makes me drink more than I probably
- 34:33should, so I would just avoid this game all together.
- 34:35You gotta have eggnog up there by now, right?
- 34:38I believe Stewart's will be having it shortly.
- 34:41I I have not seen the commercial where it's in stock.
- 34:46Yeah. And spend this game on the
- 34:50toilet, then have to watch a Giles drive.
- 34:52Sounds great. Well, you know, all right,
- 34:55Florida. Oh God, they were stiff.
- 34:59Dude, if if you found a team that could quit.
- 35:01Holy crap. Last week, Florida lag me gets
- 35:04benched. The other guy comes in.
- 35:05He sucks too. What a mess. 14 against all your
- 35:10guys favorite team Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss Tim.
- 35:16Thanks. Kiffin equals pass.
- 35:19I'm not betting it. I'm not betting in the rest of
- 35:21the year. I'm not going to do it.
- 35:22Pete, you didn't go a week last year without betting something
- 35:25involving Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss.
- 35:26What? What do you think here?
- 35:27Yeah. I mean, they're probably going
- 35:29to score 80 this weekend. Florida.
- 35:31So yeah, I mean, I would be all over Ole Miss.
- 35:33I I, I didn't touch you because I had enough bets, but I thought
- 35:35about it. I would definitely take Ole
- 35:37Miss. I don't blame you.
- 35:38Florida cost me a perfect week last week.
- 35:40Yeah, but the good thing was by the second quarter, I didn't
- 35:42have to watch the rest of the game.
- 35:44So. Oh, God, I I mean, I've lay 24
- 35:48with Ole Miss, and that was a lie.
- 35:49Nothing I saw before last week leads me to believe that they're
- 35:52even remotely all right. Another game for Tim.
- 35:57He's got some Utah futures. They are laying 7 1/2 going to
- 36:00Mailer with a total of 59 1/2. Pete, what do you think about
- 36:03this one? Oh, I like you tall day in this
- 36:07game. I think they you can lay that
- 36:08lay those points and feel pretty comfortable about it.
- 36:10But that's that's my thought. Tim.
- 36:13Heavy lean towards the under here, this one reason, but yeah,
- 36:17I'm looking the under, yeah. I see that.
- 36:20Yeah, I would lean Utah, but the hook scares me, so wouldn't bend
- 36:25this one. Plus I I can't figure out Baylor
- 36:27for the life beginners. All right, another SEC match.
- 36:30Texas, they need to win out to possibly be a playoff team.
- 36:34They're getting 6 1/2 at Georgia, total of 48 1/2.
- 36:38Tim, what do you think? I'd run with Georgia.
- 36:42I think just Georgia, you know, at home.
- 36:44Doesn't matter who they're playing.
- 36:45I think they're going to cover here.
- 36:46I think it's it, it might be ugly.
- 36:48I don't know if for some reason I'm feeling it's going to be
- 36:50bad, go to Georgia. I agree, Pete.
- 36:55Yeah, I mean we saw multiple grind fest of this game last
- 36:58year. Texas has shown they cannot beat
- 37:00Georgia period. I don't think they're going to
- 37:02here. Yeah, I think I would.
- 37:04I would definitely go to. Georgia, I read somewhere today
- 37:07that we're talking about like the downfall of Georgia's
- 37:11defense in regards to sacks. They said in the two games last
- 37:15year against Texas, Georgia had 13 sacks and they only have like
- 37:1911 this year or something like that.
- 37:21They they had more sacks in the two games against Texas than
- 37:24they have all of this year's. So bars do with that what you
- 37:28want. All right, UCLA's getting 31
- 37:321/2. I don't even know why I put this
- 37:35one on here visiting it. Maybe because Ohio State, I
- 37:39don't know. They just haven't looked
- 37:40explosive. But again, when you're not
- 37:41giving up any points, you don't need to be total of 47 1/2 feet.
- 37:45What do you think? Yeah, I mean, it's a pass in
- 37:49this game, but Ohio State's offense has not been impressive,
- 37:52and that's going to be a problem for them the playoffs coming off
- 37:54that. I mean, the defense is great,
- 37:56but that offense has really not been what I expect it to be.
- 37:58So I mean, they're going to win this game.
- 37:59They'll probably score 50 or something, but it's UCLA so that
- 38:02doesn't matter. Yeah.
- 38:05Yeah, I'm seriously leaning towards UCLA with the 31 1/2,
- 38:08but yeah, pass on this game. I'm just going to pass.
- 38:12I want nothing to do it. Like this could be a game where
- 38:14Ohio State covers, but it'll be like 34 to nothing.
- 38:17You know? I can.
- 38:19I can see them pitching a shot out here.
- 38:21And while not looking super impressive offensively in the
- 38:23process. And the one we all the team, we
- 38:26all love because we know Tim loves his team.
- 38:30But the the fighting enter Sandman's getting 14 as they
- 38:34visit Florida State. Total of 55 1/2.
- 38:37Pete, you go first because we're going to save Tim for the last
- 38:39time. I I forgot they were still
- 38:41playing this year, so they they pretty much shouldn't.
- 38:43We'll be fine. Moving on to Tim.
- 38:46Would you guys laugh at me if I said a money line sprinkle on
- 38:49Virginia Tech? No.
- 38:51No. I thought about that, but I was
- 38:56like, you know what? I don't want to go that
- 38:58hardcore, but honestly, and Virginia Tech went in here and
- 39:01gave him a game and had a chance to win.
- 39:04Wouldn't surprise me one bit. So you're having a good week and
- 39:08you get down to this game. You know what took a half unit
- 39:10on Virginia Tech money line? What the hell?
- 39:13Why? Not Tim.
- 39:13Tell me why Florida State's going to win this game.
- 39:17I'm not so sure they are, but I do like the under for this. 1.
- 39:23If they do happen to lose this game, Norvell will beat Lane
- 39:27Kiffin in firings. He got fired at the airport.
- 39:30I think Norvell will be fired in the locker room before he even
- 39:34gets his postgame speech. It'll be like, don't even go in
- 39:36the locker room, just get out. Just keep.
- 39:37Walking. Just keep walking out.
- 39:39There's your car at your parking spot.
- 39:40Just go home. They have to win this game.
- 39:44They do. He wants to keep his job.
- 39:46I don't know why that's a bridge too far after what's happened
- 39:49already, but I would like for him to win.
- 39:53I still think getting rid of them this early is a bad idea,
- 39:56so we'll talk about that later on, but I like the under all.
- 40:01Right. Final answer.
- 40:03Slap in here, wrap this baby up. All right.
- 40:09Oh, there it is. All right.
- 40:14Who wants to go first? Oh.
- 40:15I'll go first. I'm on the top of the page.
- 40:17So first of all, I am positive finally.
- 40:20So I'm very happy about that. So I got both Friday games,
- 40:23Clemson, Louisville, under 51, 1/2 on the unit.
- 40:27Also Minnesota, Oregon under 40. 4 1/2.
- 40:30Also in the unit, North Carolina Wake Forest over 38 1/2.
- 40:34I'm playing kind of the opposite, my normal North
- 40:36Carolina lot of play here, so I'm interested in that.
- 40:38And finally, Oklahoma, Alabama under 46 1/2 Pitbull SEC
- 40:43slugfest. OK.
- 40:45I am coming off A5 and a week. Thank you very much.
- 40:49I did have a bet, a couple bets this week.
- 40:52I had Toledo over Miami of Ohio and I also had the over.
- 40:56So I'm one and one there, so six and one of my last 7 bets.
- 41:00But this week I have Utah, Missouri State under 49 1/2, BYU
- 41:05-4 1/2 over TCU, Arizona State -12 1/2 over West Virginia.
- 41:11And I also have the over in that game of 47 1/2.
- 41:14What you got, Darren? Well, I had a loss but it was
- 41:18probably the one of the best college football games of the
- 41:20year to watch even though it didn't work out in the win
- 41:22column at Akron to beat Kent State.
- 41:26They scored eighteen straight in the fourth quarter to take it to
- 41:28overtime but did not get the ball 1st and that went as you
- 41:31would expect. But I have two plays this week.
- 41:332 units on the South Carolina Texas A&M game going over 48 1/2
- 41:36and one unit on Missouri laying 6 1/2 over Mississippi.
- 41:41OK, All right, well, you started the show.
- 41:43I'll end the show. Thank you all for watching.
- 41:45Please don't forget to like and subscribe to our channel and on
- 41:48Spotify. Leave us all your bets in the
- 41:51comments section. Like to know what you're betting
- 41:52on and leave us a review. That'll help us out a lot.
- 41:56If for no other reason, you can watch all my bloopers every
- 41:58week. So it should be entertaining as
- 42:00well as hopefully lucrative for you guys.
- 42:03So that's our show for week 12. Thank you for watching.
- 42:06We'll see you next week.