Latest / Brian Thomas / Daniel Davis Deep Dive

Transcript

Daniel Davis Deep Dive · Brian Thomas

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: 829-55-KRC, the talk station.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: 829-55-KRC, the talk station. Tuesday, it's that time of week.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: We get the alliterative Daniel Davis deep dive. Retired Lieutenant
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: Colonel Daniel Davis with war analysis. He does a wonderful
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: job and get the benefit of his company every Tuesday
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: at this time. Welcome back, sir. It is always a
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: pleasure to see you.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: And it is always a pleasure to be here with you, Brian.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: And on behalf of my family, myself personally, my entire
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: listening audience, thank you for your service to our country
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: and an early happy Veterans Day, Daniel Davis.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for saying that, Brian. It's most appreciated.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Tremendous respect we have here for the American military on
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: the morning show. Donald Trump declared yesterday that Iran's military
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: is defeated effectively. That's fine. We blew up their Navy.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: We hear that all the time. We blew up their
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Air Force. That's traditional warfare. Now, we all acknowledge that
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Iran retains the ability to create drones, make drones, and
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: precision missiles, and they have that capability. Isn't that really
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: what modern warfare is anymore, Daniel Davis? I mean, I
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: don't want to paint with too broad of a brush,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: but If you can build that stuff, you know, like
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Castro in the hills with machine guns, you can effectively
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: fight off an entire military. It seems to have some
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, we can look back through history with this happening.
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it all has to do with the the. military
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: factors at play in a given geographic area, not just conceptually.
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: Because conceptually, we have a great ground force and we
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: have a great joint force. And on paper, you're like, okay,
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: if you put this force that has this stuff and
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: this side that doesn't even have a Navy, it doesn't
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: have a conventional air force, yeah, it's going to get
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: wiped out. Problem is that piece of paper doesn't matter.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: It matters what's happened on the ground. And on the
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: ground in this terrain, in this environment to where we're
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: attacking into the Iranian side, and they're the defenders in
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: the mountains with these drone and missile factories under the ground,
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: not just the launch points, but the actual production facilities,
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: there's almost no way that you.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Can stop that.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: In fact, there is no way you can stop it
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: with just air power, because you can't get underneath all
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: of those mountains. You can't get underneath any of them,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: much less all of them. And you have to get
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: under all of them if you ever want to actually
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: get back safe control of the Strait of Hormuz. We
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: claim that we are in complete control of the Strait.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: Pete Hicks just said it just a few minutes ago
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: in a press briefing, but we don't.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: We control Iranian side. We do.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: We control them getting their oil and all that stuff,
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: and that's legit. We are putting a severe constraint on that.
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: But that's just half of the equation. It's not even
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: half because they have influence over the stuff that we
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: want to get out. And that is, despite what's being
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: claimed by the White House, it's a fraction of what
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: it was pre-war.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: It's not nothing. It is decent.
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: It's 7, 8 to 10, sometimes million barrels a day.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: But it's not enough.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: And until we can get that cleared out, and because
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: Iran continues to hit tankers to show that, no, we
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: still have the ability to decide what gets out and
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: what doesn't. And until we change that, we're going to
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: be in trouble because we can't do this forever.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Well, and all of that, and correct me if I'm wrong,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: my recollection of our multiple conversations over the last couple
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: of years, at least since this conflict's been going on,
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: nothing has changed pre- and post-elections. American people obviously registered
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: their dissent on some level with the vote last Tuesday.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: But do you think the Iranians' position has changed? Do
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: they feel like they're coming to the table with a
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: greater position of strength? Because Trump said, you know, they're
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: talking to us and they're talking politely, talking about negotiations,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: I guess, being facilitated by the Qatari government. But the
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: bronze Supreme National Security Council came out yesterday and said,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, what are you talking about? Fold your hands.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Stop manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks. Stop denying things.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: the West Asian new order time to surrender to the
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set out. I don't know how,
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: and going back to the original memorandum of understanding, you
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: and I talked and scratched our heads over the inclusion
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: of military activities by the Israelis. They weren't signatories, but
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: here the Iranians are demanding that military action, all of it.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: And particularly in Lebanon, um, Are we bringing the Israelis
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: in to sit down with this particular settlement negotiation, Daniel Davis,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: or are they asking for something that we can't bring
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: to the table?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, in large measure, that is correct.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: They are asking for something that we apparently don't have
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: the ability to deliver.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: We've tried several times, and.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: It's blown up in our face every time because Israel
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: is passionately focused on what they can see. Because it's
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: not just Hezbollah in Lebanon, it's also Hamas in Gaza.
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: They're both mentioned by name. And of course, those are
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: highly emotional issues for the Israelis. It doesn't matter whether
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: we think it's a good idea or a bad one.
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: It is profoundly important to the Israeli government and its people.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: So there's no chance at all that they would submit
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: to any of that. So it's almost dead on arrival
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: as it is. And it's interesting, the sequence of things yesterday,
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: there was an al-Arabia protest report out that said that
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: the two sides were close to a deal, that President
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Trump was going to be willing to have some unfrozen assets,
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: potentially up to $ 9 billion. There was going to be
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: some sanctions relief. The blockade, both blockades were going to
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: be lifted, et cetera. They're working on it.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: That's what it was claimed.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: Then about an hour or two later, General Rezaei was
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: the first to come out with that statement that you
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: just mentioned, where he says.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Well, y'all, this is all fake. There's no negotiations. There's
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: no talks. We're not close to anything.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: There are some talks, and I have at a very
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: good level in the White House, that there are some lower-level.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Talks between the U.S. and Iran, but they're just conversations.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: They're not even on the decision-maker level.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: It's pretty low-level, but they're happening.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: But the problem is, what they're saying in private is
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: the same thing they're saying in public. Which is, there
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: are seven terms you have to come to, which is
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: all the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding up front,
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: and then and only then they say they'll talk about
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: the nuclear situation. What it looks to me like is
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: that they have concluded, right or wrong, that they have
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: the dominant military position in this fight with these circumstances,
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: and that they feel that they can endure the pain
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: of the blockade that we're putting on them much longer
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: than we can endure the continued pain economically throughout the
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: rest of the world, and it's a.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Big game of chicken.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: So I don't think that they're going to give in
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: at all, which means it's probably likely we're going to
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: end up either completely submitting to what Iran wants, minus
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: those two, because we can't deliver those, or we're probably
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: going to end up back in conflict.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Well, do you think the Iranians, and you just mentioned
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: what their perception of their position being superior to the
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: United States, at least as the current situation stands, you
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: perceive that as accurate? I mean, it sounds to me
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: like it is, isn't it?
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: That's certainly how I see it, because offensively, we cannot
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: go back in.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I saw again.
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: Yesterday Jack Keane is practically begging Fox News president through
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: Fox News to go back to kinetic. I've seen other
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: people talk and say, no, we can still win this.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: It's we can actually Pete Hegseth is in that category there. No,
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: we can win because we have this incredible military. And
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: somehow these guys calculate that it would be different that
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: we have a different target set. We can go after
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: than we did the first time. Keane at least says
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: there will be something different about it. But what he's
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: talking about going after, it'll blow stuff up on the
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: ground in Iran, and it'll hurt people, it'll kill people,
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: but it's not going to do anything to their military
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: capacity with the drones and the missiles. And if you
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: can't stop that, it doesn't matter what else you blow up.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: But that's the mentality.
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: And I'll tell you one last thing, Brian, is that
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: I also conclude that the Iranian side is saying, I'm
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: okay going back to conflict. And I think that's why
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: they keep hitting ships in the Persian Gulf trying to
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: draw us back in because I think that they want
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: us to do that so that we will suffer a
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: really big loss, use the remainder of our long-range interceptors
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: and the long-range cruise missiles, and end up having to
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: leave in disgrace without any kind of a deal. On
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: a losing end, I think that's what they're seeking for,
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: even if it's short-term pain.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: I must observe that they may be sort of Rasputin
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: whispering in an ear. They may be getting that sort
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: of position from the Chinese or the Russians or anybody
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: else who doesn't like us. Yeah, drag the U.S.
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: In there.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: They're already short on supplies. We could sure use the help.
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, who's to blame them from their perspective? because they're like, yeah,
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, they don't have to actually directly fight us.
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: It weakens our global position, which then by default elevates
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: theirs and makes them look better to the rest of
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: the world without having to do a thing, because Iran
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: is perfectly capable of inflicting these pains, mostly on their own.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: I'm sure they're getting help from both of them to
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: one degree or another, a lot from Russia on drones
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: and technology for rockets. But Most of the stuff they
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: do on their own.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Well, and I'm sure you obviously encounter this all the time,
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: as do I. Well, we just need to go in
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: there and get it done. Just go in there and
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: get it done. And I don't know really what that
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: means in the hearts and minds of people who tell
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: me that, but my view is if you move aside
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: from the option of putting boots on the ground, which
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: I don't think anybody wants or needs, and you have
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: talked about that all the time, it would be a
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: bloodbath considering how dangerous and horrific and sizable the terrain is.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: But if we could have just gone in and blown
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: something up absent nuclear weapons.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: we would have.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Done it already, wouldn't we? I mean, people would keep throwing, oh,
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: the Moab, just throw a mother of all bombs on that.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: That wouldn't do anything to Pickaxe Mountain. I mean, they
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: would have done it.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: It wouldn't.
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: In fact, we had Professor Ted Postle on the show
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: who did a detailed analysis of what would happen if
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: we hit Pickaxe Mountain with our biggest nuclear weapon. And
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: it's like a 450 kiloton weapon. And there is a
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: decent chance that it could actually knock out the facility itself.
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: If it was a pinpoint strike right above where the
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: facility was, and we don't know that for sure because
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: it could be anywhere under that mountain complex, but if
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: we did, and it was only about, I think it
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: was like 200, 300 meters below the surface, which is
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: pretty substantial in a granite mountain, you can potentially knock
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: it out, but only a direct hit.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: But the fallout would be catastrophic.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: And if you track a tactical nuclear weapon, It's going
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: to bounce off the top. It's just going to be
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: a little bit more than a conventional. And unless we're
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: ready to do something, just just I mean, you're talking about,
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: you know, the biggest thing we have, which would be
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: just catastrophic.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, we would be the pariah of the world
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: if we did that.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Right. And again, if that option was legitimately available without
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: becoming the pariah of the world, I guarantee it would
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: have been done already under this administration.
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: Real quick, Brian, it wouldn't matter because they still have
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: 30 some odd 50 some odd other sites.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So even that wouldn't matter.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: And pivoting over, do you think the election in Israel,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: the change of leadership, is going to have any impact?
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Do you understand which direction new administration might be going
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: vis-a-vis the various conflicts we've been talking about?
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not going to change the direction of anything.
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: It's just going to change kind of how they do it,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: because whether it's Eisencott or Benjamin Netanyahu, they're generally of
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: the same mindset about what.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: They need to do in the near term.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: Eisencott seems to be a little bit less aggressive about
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: on some of the longer-range targets and more focused on
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: the near-term things, like around his borders or whatever. Of course,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: on Gaza and Lebanon, I don't see any change at all.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Daniel Davis, Deep Dive. Find him where you find your
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: regular podcasts. iHeartMedia is one example. We always carry the
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: podcast and tune in every Tuesday at 8.30 for Retired
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. Again, on behalf of everyone that's listening,
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: thank you for your service to our country, and I
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: hope you have a wonderful and enjoyable Veterans Day tomorrow.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you a lot, Brian. Most appreciated.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: We'll talk next Tuesday, 841 right now, 55 KRC, the
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: talk station. Rick's on the phone. Hang on, buddy. I'll
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: take your call in just a minute.