Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Over Run | MLB | 9/16/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Over Run | MLB | 9/16/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on Hold on, not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: Toadstool Sports for Wednesday, September 16th. Won the one play
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: I gave out on the show yesterday over in Padres Rockies.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: You know, I mean, it was kind of close, I guess.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: It wound up 9-3 Colorado, I think, so it only
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: went over by, depending on what number you got, one
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: run or half a run. There was an 11 or
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: maybe a couple of books that had an 11 out there,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: so You might have been able to get right on
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: that key number. I'm happy it didn't even matter, though.
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I think probably more runs should have
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: scored in that game than 12 because there were like
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: 27 hits in the game, I think, combined across the
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: two teams. Both teams were in double digits in hits.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: So probably more runs should have scored than actually did,
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: but it still went over. So I'm okay with that.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: Move on to today. It's another board I don't love
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: that much. I'm going to give out two plays here.
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: Hopefully they win, obviously. That's the goal. All right. We
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: have a bunch of afternoon baseball here. Well, four afternoon
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: games here. I do not have a play in any
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: of these. White Sox and Cleveland on ESPN. Big series here.
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: These teams have split the first two games. These teams
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: are separated by a half game in the standings here
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: for the AL Central. Huge series. I mean, whoever wins
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: this game will wind up leading the division after the
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: series ends here as both teams are finishing the series today.
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: And possibly could fade the White Sox tomorrow, by the way,
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: against Detroit. I don't know if I want to back
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: Valdez tomorrow, but White Sox are going to be coming
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: off this big series here. As far as the bullpens,
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: these are both okay bullpens. Cleveland used a lot of
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday, though. They used five. So the bullpen
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: usage might put them at a little bit of a
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: disadvantage here. The White Sox use three. Look at the
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: bullpen rankings. Cleveland number 11 based on whip. White Sox
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: number 15. White Sox probably have the upper hand in
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: this bullpen matchup, though, just because the rest, I think,
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: gives it to them slightly. The offenses, Cleveland is really
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: bad offensively. Number 29 based on OPS. The White Sox
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: are number 12 tied with Atlanta. So the White Sox
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: have the edge there. Starting pitching, I think, pretty unquestionably,
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: Cleveland has the better starter here. Anthony Kaye is pitching
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: for the White Sox. He's not great. 4.53 ERA, 1.37 whip.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: He's not good on the road. 5.35 road ERA. He
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: is fadable on the road. He's failed to make it
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: five innings in four straight starts. His team has lost
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: the last three of them. He's allowed three or more
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: runs in all of them. I mean, he's not pitching
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: well right now. He's got a high hit rate on
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: the season, more than one per inning, not good. His
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: walk rate is okay. His strikeout rate's not very good.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: Strikeout walk ratio, definitely not a good number. 2.3. Strikeout
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: per nine, 7.3. I would say below average there as well.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: He is good against Cleveland, though. I mean, this is
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: a weak offense. They have 43 at-bats against them. They
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: only have one extra base hit, which is a Double
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: from Angel Martinez, seven strikeouts, three walks, 209 average, 493 LPS.
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: So everything except for the matchup, the specific matchup looks
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: bad for K, but maybe the specific matchup will help
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: him pitch well enough here. But he's in the bad
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: home road split. He's in bad form right now, and
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: he's nowhere near as good as Parker Messick, who's pitching
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: for Cleveland here, 2.51 ERA, 1.03 whip for him. He's
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: actually a little bit worse at home, 2.79 home ERA.
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: Still good, though. He wasn't at his best, I would say,
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: in his last start at Minnesota, but he was still
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: good enough to hold him to one run. He's allowed
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: three or fewer earned runs in every start, going all
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: the way back to late June. So he is pitching well.
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: He's a young guy, though, so you may have to
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: worry about this innings total that he's pitched here, 172
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: and a third now. But his last couple of starts
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: were still pretty good, so it looks like he's not
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: Totally losing it yet. His walk rate is not bad.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is definitely low. Strikeout rate is pretty
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: high as well. Messick is good, man. 3.8 strikeout walk ratio, 9.3
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: Ks per nine. Good stuff there. He's also good against
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: the White Sox and 72 at bats. 194 average, 612
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: OPS allowed, 20 strikeouts, four walks. This game seems like
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: more of an under to me. I think that's, I
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: don't know, man, maybe a first five under, but you're
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: looking at a low total here. Like, this total has
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: been driven down from an eight down to seven, basically, here. There's, like,
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: no room for leeway here. First five under, I think,
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: makes some sense to me. You're going to be looking
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: at a three, three and a half. I really don't
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: want to do that, especially because I just don't really
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: trust K enough here. The money's actually backing the over.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: 73% of tickets, 88% of the cash on the over,
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: even though the initial move was a pretty significant one.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Pretty much threw a key number, too. So, I don't know.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: I mean, under makes more sense to me in this one.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: Probably the lean would be Cleveland here as well. They're
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: minus 160-something, though, and you'd have to lay a minus
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: one run line, and Like I said, Cleveland, they don't
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: score much, even though they did score seven runs yesterday.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: But they still only won by one run yesterday. So
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: if you did the minus one run line with Cleveland yesterday,
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: you pushed that bet. 79% of the tickets, 92% of
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: the cash on Cleveland. Money seems to agree with that.
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: I would lean Cleveland on the side there, the minus
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: one run line, I guess. I think they pretty clearly
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: have the better starting pitcher here. Do I want to
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: touch this game? Not really. I mean, I think there
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: are just too many conflicting factors with how K is
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: going to pitch here. I really want to do it,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: and I don't trust Cleveland's offense very much. Not that
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't play Cleveland, but not at this price, really. Garrett,
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: what's up? Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: San Francisco and St.
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: Louis.
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: This is a series that's, you know, it's two teams
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: that are going nowhere here. They split the series, I mean,
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: I guess, Both teams will show up and try to
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: win the series, I suppose. I mean, there's not a
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: whole lot to play for at this point for these
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: two teams. St. Louis used two relief pitchers yesterday. San
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: Francisco also two. I don't really like either of these bullpens.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: San Francisco's is the less bad of the two. They're
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: number 24. St. Louis is number 23, but their ERA
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: is considerably worse. So San Francisco is the better bullpen here.
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: San Francisco's number 17 in offense tied with Texas. St.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: Louis is worse than that somewhere. Yeah, they're 26, so
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: I guess. I mean, I still think both these offenses
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: are pretty bad, though. I mean, these are just two
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: bad teams overall, and I do not like these starting
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: pitchers either. Anthony Molina pitching for the Giants, 5.24 ERA,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: although his whip is not that bad at 1.25. He's
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: a young guy, and I don't really know exactly what
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: to think here. He is better on the road, 2.77
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: road ERA. I don't know why he pitches so poorly.
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: in his own stadium in San Francisco. It's a pitcher-friendly stadium,
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: but those numbers are skewed because that was his one
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: recent outing against San Diego where he got absolutely destroyed
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: in that outing, although that's not a good sign because
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: it means he's not in good form right now. Maybe
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: going back out on the road will help him. His
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: last two road starts were both pretty good against the
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: Mets and the Braves. He does have too high of
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: a hit rate. Doesn't seem to walk many people, though,
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: and his strikeout rate is all right, 3.8 Ks per 9.
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: seven or excuse me, K, uh, BB ratio, um, which
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: is not bad at all. Actually 7.7 case per nine.
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: It's not really that high though. Uh, St. Louis has
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: not really seen much of them. They're one for four
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: combined off them with four hitters that have faced some
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Herrera has the only hit a single zero strikeout, zero
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: walks Molina may be able to pitch. Okay. Here, because it's,
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: The better of the home road split for him. He's
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: in a pitcher-friendly park, and he's facing an offense that's
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: not familiar with him, so that might give him a
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: little bit of an edge. Plus, it's not a very
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: good offense. Matthew Libertore, pitching for St. Louis, he is
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: not good. 5.53 ERA, 1.49 BYU. whip. He's also even
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: worse at home. 5.77 home ERA. I don't get why
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: he's so bad at home. 309 upon a batting average
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: at home, too, in this pitcher-friendly park, and he's also
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: not pitching well recently. He's failed to make it five
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: innings in three of his last four starts. He's given
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: up a bunch of runs here. Strikeout walk ratio over
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: the last two starts is really ugly as well. Yeah,
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: there's not a lot to like here with him. His
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: hit rate is way too high on the season. His
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: walk rate is not great. His strikeout rate is all right, though.
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: He strikes guys out. He's got a 2.8 strikeout walk ratio, though,
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: because he also walks guys. 9.2 Ks per nine, not bad,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: but most of his other numbers are pretty putrid. Giants, though,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: they're not familiar with him somehow. They've only had two
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: guys face him. 0-3 combined, two strikeouts, no walks. There's
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: a lot of unfamiliarity here, man, and these offenses are bad.
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: So there are some arguments to be made for an
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: under here, but I see some arguments for the over, too,
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: because the argument for the over is these pitchers suck,
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: and the money's coming in on the over as well.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: 81% of the tickets, 92% of the cash on the over.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: The total's at $ 8. You know, I'd probably rather be
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: on the over than anything else in this game, to
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: be honest. I mean, I just think it's untrustworthy pitchers.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: I don't trust the bullpens either. I don't really trust
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: the offenses enough to really get it done. But over eight,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: if you force me to play this game, I guess
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: that's probably what I would do. I really don't like
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: this game, though. Minus 160 or something is the price
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: here on St. Louis. 79% of tickets, 95% of the
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: cash on St.
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: Louis.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: I don't think I would. do that. I think Molina
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: might actually be better than Libertore, so I think I
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: might slightly lean towards San Francisco in that game on
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: the side, and you get a decent price on it.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: You get them as an underdog. You can make like
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: a plus one run line on them, too. I would
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: leave their bullpen in, actually, probably, if I was going
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: to do it that way. I think their bullpen is
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: actually a little bit better. Yankees-Minnesota. Yankees on the verge
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: of a sweep here, so Minnesota does fall into that
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: spot where the home team is especially a team like
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: Minnesota that's, like, desperate to stay alive or whatever. The Yankees,
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: by the way, clinched a playoff spot two days ago,
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: so that's something maybe to consider. But the Yankees were
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: not in a letdown mode yesterday anyway. They won anyway yesterday.
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: But something to consider, the Dodgers also clinched theirs a
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: couple days ago too. But I don't consider that that
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: strongly in Major League Baseball. I mean, you have so
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: many games to focus on. It's like, I don't know, yeah,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: you clinched. Like, in some cases, maybe I would consider
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: it a letdown, but– in the next game. But I
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: don't think for these two teams, plus the matchup is
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: just so in favor of Yankees and Dodgers in these matchups,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: especially the Dodgers. It's just like, there's no way that
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: I want to play against the Dodgers in their series.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: And I don't want to play against the Yankees here
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: today either. Didn't want to do it yesterday either. Uh,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: but Minnesota is on the verge of a sweep. So
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: if you do want to do it, maybe that will
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: give you enough motivation to get it done. If you're
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: going to play Minnesota, I would not do it full
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: game because their bullpen is terrible. Uh, So I would
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: do it in the first five only. The Yankees have
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: a way better bullpen here. The Yankees also only used
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: one guy out of the bullpen yesterday. Minnesota used three.
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: So we have a big bullpen advantage to the Yankees.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: The Yankees are ranked number three right now in bullpen,
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: but again, I think they're number one or number two
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: in reality. Minnesota not even close Minnesota's 28th Yankees are
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: also hitting better judges back they're up to number 10
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: again tied with Houston Minnesota's not a bad offense really
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: either though they're number 14 New York is going with
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: Carlos Rodon here he's been pretty good 2.94 ERA 1.12
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: whip he's a little bit worse on the road 3.2
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: road ERA but he's still pitching well and he does
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: not allow a lot of hits. If there's one issue
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: with him, it's that he walks too many guys, but
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: that hasn't really even been an issue recently either. The
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Yankees have won four of his last five games. Since
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: he came back from injury, they've won four of his
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: last five. He has not allowed more than two earned
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: runs in any start, although he was not pitching a
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: full workload until the last couple of starts, but he's
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: been good. He's been striking out a lot of guys,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: not allowing many hits at all, not really walking many
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: guys either. He's in good form right now. He's got
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: a really low hit rate on the season. His walk
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: rate is still too high on the season. It's actually
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: really bad on the season, but he's gotten that a
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: little bit under control recently. His strikeout rate is high.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: Strikeout walk ratio is still 2.2 on the season, though.
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: That's because that walk number is just enormous on the season,
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: but he does seem to be moving in the right
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: direction that way in that regard. I mean, 10 strikeout
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: per nine, that's good. Numbers against Minnesota are also really good,
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: and 56 at-bats, 19 strikeouts, 5 walks, 125 average, 447
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: OPS allowed. So, yeah, I think he's going to pitch
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: well here. He's in good form. He's got good numbers
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: against Minnesota. Minnesota countering with Zebby, Zebby Matthews. He's actually
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: been all right, 4.98 ERA, 1.27 whip. He's been way
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: better at home. His home ERA is four runs lower
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: than it is on the road. He has extreme splits here. 2.84
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: home ERA. Didn't pitch well in his last start, but
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: that was at Detroit, so that was a road game.
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: His last couple home starts were good. His last one
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: was really good against the White Sox. The one before
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: that was pretty good as well against Atlanta, and those
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: are not weak offenses either, so Matthews at least does
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: pitch well at home. He's not really in good form
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: in this month, though, but maybe you have to take
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: that a little bit Maybe you should not put that
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: much weight into that because both of those starts are
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: on the road. His hit rate is okay on the season.
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is pretty low. Strikeout rate is not high,
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: but he doesn't really walk that many guys. So 2.7
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, that's not too bad. 7.5 Ks per
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: nine is not great, though, considering he was over 10
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: throughout his career prior to this. So, I don't know.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: He's changed something with the way that he pitches, but
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: maybe it's helping because overall he's pitched better this year
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: than he did the last couple of years. However, he
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: is not good against the Yankees. In 40 at-bats,. 350
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: average allowed, 1,084 OPS, 8-4 strikeout walk ratio. So, I
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: think I just have to lean Yankees here. I mean,
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: it seems like they have the pitching edge in every
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: inning in this game for the most part, so... They're very,
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: very public, though, and you have to lay like minus
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: 150 with them on the road. I don't think I
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: want to do that, especially against a team that is
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: trying to avoid a sweep at home here and is
• 16:46
  Speaker 3: in total desperation mode, whereas the Yankees, I mean, yeah,
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: the Yankees are still trying to catch Tampa in the division,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: and of course, for them, Tampa and the Red Sox
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: are playing each other in the next series, but maybe
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: that's not good for the Yankees because... They need Tampa
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: to get knocked down, and the Red Sox are probably
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: not going to sweep Tampa in Tampa. You know what
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: I mean? Highly unlikely outcome. 89% of tickets, 93% of
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: the cash on the Yankees. Again, they're minus 140-something. I
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: guess you could lay that money line. I think that's
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: what I would do, though, if I was going to
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: play it. I think the Yankees are the right side
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: most likely here. The matchup, I think, is just too
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: much in favor of them. I could see the argument
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: for an under in the first five, though, just because
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: both pitchers might be able to do okay. I mean,
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: Matthews just doesn't have the matchup numbers to really support it,
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: but he is at least good at home and not
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: as bad as people think he is. The full game
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: total is at eight, which is not very high, especially
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: for a Minnesota home game. But money coming in on
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: the over in the game pretty strongly, but that's for
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: the full game. So those are my thoughts on that.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: But I think the... Yeah, I mean, if you force
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: me to give an opinion on that game, Yankees would
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: be my play in that game. Either on the money
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: line or making it a minus one run line on
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: the road, but I don't really want to do it.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: Detroit at Toronto. Toronto's on the verge of getting swept,
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: so they are a home team trying to avoid a
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: sweep here, and I believe they're actually a home favorite
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: in this game. Are they? Close to it, at least.
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: But maybe some of that is because Scherzer just still
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: gets the name recognition a little bit there, but Toronto
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: probably has the motivational edge here, man. I mean, they're
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: trying to stay alive here. So Toronto's a desperate team.
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: They're still not out of the wild card race. As
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: they're fighting with, I believe, Cleveland and Texas pretty much,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: and Baltimore, I guess. Yeah, Baltimore's still for the final
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: wild card spot here. Detroit, they're pretty much done, even
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: though I know Detroit's really hot right now. I think
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: they've won six games in a row, but they embarrassed
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Toronto yesterday, 10-1, and now Toronto's on the verge of
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: getting swept out of this thing. And it could be
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: a look ahead for Detroit because they have Chicago next,
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: the White Sox. So maybe Detroit's going to look ahead
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: to that and want to try to play spoiler against
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: a divisional opponent there. So situation, I think, definitely favors Toronto.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: So I was looking like, is this going to make
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: the cut for me? Is there a way to play
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: Toronto in this game? And it was looking like maybe.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: Toronto did use five relief pitchers yesterday, so I don't
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: really want to deal with their bullpen here. Detroit used three.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: So Detroit probably has the upper hand in the bullpen here.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: Detroit's number 14. Toronto's number 17. Detroit's ERA is a
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: little bit worse, but their rest situation is a little
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: bit better. So hard to really say which bullpen really
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: has the edge here. It's close. Offensively, Detroit is better,
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: but neither team has been that good. Detroit is back
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: up to 16, though. I mean, they've been hitting well
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: in this series, at least. Toronto all season has been
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: a pretty bad offense, number 27. Keeter Montero is pitching
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: for Detroit. He's been pretty good, 3.55 ERA, 1.03 whip.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: He's A little bit worse ERA-wise on the road, 3.75.
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: But his opponent batting average on the road is very good, 185.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: So he's been very hard to hit on the road.
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: Not really in good form right now, though. His last
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: two starts, he only lasted four innings in both of them.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: He allowed eight runs over those eight innings against Cleveland
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: and Minnesota. That's not exactly good. His hit rate is
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: very low on the season. His walk rate is quite
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: low as well, though. But he also doesn't strike anybody out.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: So again, the advanced analytics guys will... You know, we'll
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: say that he sucks because he doesn't strike guys out,
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: but he doesn't put a lot of guys on base,
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: so I like that, obviously. 2.9 strikeout walker issue is
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: not that bad. Six Ks per nine, yeah, I know,
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: that's not good. He doesn't fool guys, but he is
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: still getting a lot of guys out, not putting a
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: lot of guys on base. However, Toronto, as bad as
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: their offense is, they kind of murder this guy. He's
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: got 33 at-bats against them, 424 average, 1121 OPS. 3-0
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, so he gets destroyed by Toronto,
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: so why do I not want Toronto here? Well, it's
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: because I don't trust Max Scherzer. I mean, that's kind
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: of the whole thing. Yeah, I mean, I'd be fine
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: fading Montero here, but Scherzer, I don't think I could do.
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: It, man.
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's going to retire. It's been a bad
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: season here. 6.38 ERA, 1.37 whip, I guess indicates maybe
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: his ERA should be a little bit better, but still
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: not good. He's not good at home, 6.75 home ERA.
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: He's not really in good form right now. His last start,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: he gave up six runs against Baltimore. He's not really
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: striking anybody out anymore. His last couple of starts prior
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: to that were okay, but yeah, I mean, I don't
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: think I could trust him enough. His hit rate is
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: kind of high. His walk rate's not great. His strikeout
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: rate is low. He just doesn't have it anymore, man.
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's announced that he's retiring, but he's
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: got a 1.8 strikeout walk ratio, uh, 6.8 strikeout per nine.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: I mean, those are the worst that he's ever posted
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: in his career. He's at the end, man. I'm sorry.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: Although he is generally good against Detroit. This is, excuse me.
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: These numbers, of course, a lot of them were back
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: when Scherzer was better than he is now. He's got
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: 52 at-bats against them, 22 strikeouts, two walks, 135 average,
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: 417 OPS. Am I being too discerning? I don't know.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, if I was going to play this game,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: I would play Toronto. In the first five only, though,
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: because I don't think I trust their bullpen enough, given
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: the rest situation. But I like Toronto in that they're
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: trying to avoid the sweep here. They're in desperation mode.
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: The pitching matchup numbers, career-wise, at least, do support this. Although, again, Scherzers,
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: most of those were accumulated prior to this year. In fact,
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's faced Detroit this year, so all
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: of those numbers were prior to this year. I'm almost
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: positive of that. Toronto is minus 130-something now. They initially
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: moved up on the money line. 61% of tickets on Toronto,
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: though the public is coming in on Toronto, I think
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: because they know, oh yeah, Toronto, they're trying to make
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: the playoffs. I think the public still sees Scherzer's name,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: and okay, let's back him. Back the team with Scherzer,
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: with a better record that has something to play for.
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: That's the other thing that worries me is, Public is
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: kind of on that side. 61% of tickets on Toronto.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: It looks, you know, it looks like the price is
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: kind of skewed upward on Toronto a little bit just
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: because they must win basically 52% of the cash on Detroit.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Like I said, I lead Toronto first five in this game,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: but I'm not going to do it. Uh, the totals
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: at eight and a half, the money's coming in on
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: the under in that game. I don't know about that. Um,
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: Another way that you could do this, if you want
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: to take Scherzer out of the equation, you could take
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: Toronto over their team total. That's another way to do that.
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I want to trust their offense
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: enough to actually do that, though. But you could. You'll
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: probably need them to score five runs, though, if you
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: do that. But yeah, you could potentially do that because
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: Toronto does hit Montero well throughout their history. So if
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: you like Toronto and you don't want to bank on Scherzer,
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: you could do it that way and bank on Toronto
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: to score some runs here, which I know It's difficult
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: to ask with an offense like that, so I don't
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: really want to do that either. And out of the
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: two pitchers, Montero is currently the better pitcher over Scherzer.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? In their current state, he is.
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: We have A's in Tampa Bay. This is another game
• 24:40
  Speaker 3: where Tampa should win, but you have to pay a
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: big price if you want them. And will they win?
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Yesterday, they only won 2-1, which is
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: kind of surprising that it was that low scoring. Tampa
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: is very good at home, though, and they are the
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: better team here, obviously. The A's are one of the
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: worst teams. Tampa Bay used four relief pitchers yesterday. The
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: A's have the worst bullpen. They only use three guys,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: very light usage, but I would still never trust their bullpen,
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: the A's. Tampa Bay's ranked fourth, although their ERA suggests
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: that they're not that good of a bullpen, but the
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: A's are the worst bullpen in baseball. Even though they're
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: ranked 29th out of 30, we all know they're the worst.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is number six offensively. The A's are number 15. Offensively,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure there's that much of a gap between
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: the two. Tampa Bay does have a better pitcher on
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: the mound here. The A's are basically going with kind
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: of a bullpen game here. Brady Basso is listed as
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: the starter. He's more of a relief pitcher right now, though. Well,
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's what he is. He's in his late 20s,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: so it's not like he's some prospect at this point.
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: He's got a decent ERA, but his whip is too high.
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: But I don't know how long he's going to stay
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: in this game, man, although they have been ramping him
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: up a little bit. He actually did pitch four innings
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: last time, and he's not given up a run in
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: his last seven innings of work. So he is actually
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: pitching okay, but that was at Seattle and against Toronto.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Those offenses have been really bad this year. This is
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: going to be a different animal having to pitch in
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay. He's faced them a little bit this year,
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: and it didn't exactly go that well. Basso has also
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: been really hittable. on the season. He hasn't really walked
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: that many guys, but he doesn't strike out that many guys,
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: and he's very hittable. I don't think I need to
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: go into his numbers in great detail, though, because he's
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: not really a full-fledged starter here. His numbers are okay
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: against Tampa, though. It's a very limited 8 at-bat sample size,
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: but they don't have any extra base hits off him.
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: 250 average, 500 OPS against him. Still, I don't think
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: I trust him that much. Tampa's got Nick Martinez pitching.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: The advanced analytics guy's Can't stand this guy because they
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: keep saying he's going to regress, and he doesn't. 2.92 ERA, 1.07
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: whip from him. Really nice season from him. He's not
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: as good at home, though. 3.92 home ERA. He's still
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: pitching pretty well, though. I mean, he's not allowing many runs.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: It looked like he did hit a little bit of
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: a bump here. He had one really bad start against
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: Toronto in the middle of August, but he bounced right back.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: And since then, he's had four good starts in a
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: row again. So he's pitching pretty well here again right now.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Let me see. I thought that I saw, yeah, he
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: pitched at the A's stadium. He had a complete game
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: at the A's stadium, the game before that Toronto game,
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: and he allowed four runs, but that's not that bad
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: considering he pitched all nine innings in that game, and
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: he didn't walk anybody. His hit rate is, you know,
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's fine. It's low enough. He really doesn't
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: walk anybody. His strikeout rate is also low. So, again,
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: the advanced analytics guys don't like this because he doesn't
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: miss bats. He pitches to contact, but his hit rate's
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: still pretty low. He really doesn't walk anybody. He's got
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: a 4.1 strikeout walk ratio. That's not bad at all. 5.3
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine, yeah, I get that's not good, and
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: he has had better strikeout numbers in the past, but
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: whatever he's doing, it's been effective over the course of
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: the whole season, and the A's have not hit him well.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: In 50 at-bats, 180 average allowed, 506 OPS, 12-3 strikeout
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, so Tampa should win this game. like I
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: said yesterday, but I don't like the price on it,
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: and I really don't know what we're going to get
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: out of the A's, although, of course, the longer the
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: A's bullpen is going to be in a game, the
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: worse it is for the A's, but Tampa's extremely public.
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, everybody's going to play Tampa because they have
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: the best record in the AL. They're trying to stay
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: ahead of the Yankees here. Tampa Bay, 95% tickets on them,
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: 94% of the cash on them. They're around a minus
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: 190 price here. Money also coming in on the over.
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, maybe that's the way to look at this.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: The total's low, though, at 8 or 7.5, so the
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: odds maker's kind of telling you they don't think it's
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: going to be that high scoring. But maybe that is
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: still the way if you want to back Tampa. You could,
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: I guess, maybe take them over their team total or something,
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: especially after they didn't score much yesterday. Maybe their offense
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: will do better here. Not exactly facing good pitching here,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: but the thing is, I don't think you really want
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: to take Martinez out of the equation either because he's
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: got good numbers here against the A's. So, I mean,
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: maybe the minus one and a half run line is
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: on the table in this game. The money's coming in
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: against Tampa, though, so I wouldn't want to do it.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: It's a low total game. Asking a team to score,
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: to win by more than one in a game like
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: that Yeah, not something I want to do unless it's
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: a really, really potent offense with a really good pitcher
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: on the mound. I think the only times I've done
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: it this year have been pretty much with the Dodgers.
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: I think maybe I did it with Milwaukee once, too.
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: And I think it's been... pretty hit or miss. I
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: don't even know if I'm up in those run line
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: games that I've given out. It's been very sporadic. Speaking
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: of which, do you want to play the run line
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: here with the Dodgers at Cincinnati? I wouldn't play Cincinnati
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: in this one, even though Cincinnati's at home. They're trying
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: to avoid the sweep. Dodgers have not scored much in
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: this series. They've only scored eight runs in this series.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: The problem for Cincinnati is they've scored one run in
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: the series, so they're on the verge of getting swept
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: out of the series here, I believe. Oh, no, they're
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: playing tomorrow, too, but even so, Cincinnati probably have a
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: little bit more motivation, at least, to try to not
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: get swept here, but The matchup edge favors the Dodgers
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: in every conceivable way here, just like I said yesterday.
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: So I do not want Cincinnati here. Dodgers used two
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday. Cincinnati used four. So Cincinnati has a
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: more used bullpen that is already the worst bullpen. They're
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: number 25. Dodgers are number 12 in bullpen. Dodgers have
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: the edge there. Dodgers are the number two offense. Cincinnati is,
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: where are they? I know they're not good. I don't
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: even see them here. Oh, they're 25th. Yeah, there you go. Yeah,
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: so Dodgers have all the edges there. Dodgers have the
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: better starter as well with Blake Snell on the mound.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: Snell has been really good. He hasn't pitched much this season,
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: but you know what the Dodgers do with these guys. Like, oh, yeah,
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: he's hurt for the whole season, and then let's just
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: get him prepared for the playoffs and whatever, and then
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: we'll be ready to go. You know what I mean? Xerox,
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: what's up, man? Um, on kick, I don't know. Maybe
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: I should, that, that I haven't really considered. I don't
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: know much about kick. I haven't really considered it, but
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: all right. Um, thanks for letting me know. Maybe I should, uh, yeah,
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: look into that. Um, yeah, I, I guess I have
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: to look into that. Uh, cause the YouTube numbers, as
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: you can see are not great. Um, but I, there
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: are a lot of gambling channels on YouTube that do
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: pretty well too, but nobody wants to listen to my autism,
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: but I'm giving out winners. At least Snell has a 1.91
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: ERA 1.09 whip. That's all really good.
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: Obviously.
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: 1.62 roadie array yeah he's pitching well since he's come
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: back from his injury he's allowed one or zero runs
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: in every one of his starts and the Dodgers only
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: lost one of those games so yeah he's pitching really
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: well low hit rate his walk rate is a bit
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: too high I mean that is just what he does
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: and a high strikeout rate as well like we know
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: what Snell does man he's always been a little bit
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: wild but he's been extremely difficult to hit and he
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: strikes out a lot of guys 3.2 strikeout walk ratio
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: from him here, which I know is not like an
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: elite number, but it's pretty good considering how many walks
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: he issues. 12.2 strikeout per nine is also very high.
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: His numbers against the Reds are also really good. They're
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: three for 30 off him, although two of the hits
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: are doubles from McClain and Stevenson, and they do have
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: six walks against him and nine strikeouts. So again, the walks,
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: not really a good thing for him, but still he's
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: held them to a 100 average. 417 OPS in those
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: 30 at-bats. The Reds have really not done much damage
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: against him at all. Andrew Abbott is pitching for Cincinnati.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: Not a good season from him, man. In fact, it's
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: been his worst season. He was decent throughout his career
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: so far up to this point, but this year has
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: not gone well for him. 4.78 ERA, 1.46 whip. Not
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: good at all. He's actually better at home, though. 4.64
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: home ERA. And I said actually because Cincinnati is a
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: hitter-friendly ballpark, but he does pitch better here. He's been
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: bad recently, though. He's failed to make it more than
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: four innings in any of his last three starts. His
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: last start on the road at Milwaukee was very bad.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: He got absolutely shelled in that one. They lost the
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: game 20-0. He's had two really bad starts in his
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: last three, although both of them were on the road.
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: His recent home starts have actually been good, though, so
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: he has some kind of extreme home road splits here recently.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: His hit rate on the season is too high. Those
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: walk rates way too high. His strikeout rate is not high.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: He's never really been a strikeout pitcher, but this is
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: way worse than what he's posted before. 1.7 strikeout walk ratio.
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: That is really bad. And seven strikeout per nine is
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: not very good either. I don't trust Abbott here. The Dodgers, surprisingly,
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: haven't really seen him. They only have three batters who
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: have faced him, which really surprises me. Like, I don't
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: know how Abbott seems to always avoid pitching against them,
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: it looks like. I don't know. They have 15 at-bats
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: against them. They have a 400 average, though. 900 OPS,
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: 3-3 strikeout walk ratio. And all three Dodger hitters that
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: have faced him have at least one hit and one walk.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: Or two of them have at least one walk, and
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: all three of them have a hit against him. So, yeah,
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: I mean, this game... the Dodgers should win. They're heavily
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: public though. 90% of the tickets and cash on them
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: minus two 20 or whatever. I mean, do you really
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: want to lay a price like that? I would say no.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: I mean, of course it's baseball, you know, I mean,
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: eight and a half is the total. The money's coming
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: in on the over. I guess there's an argument for
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers over their team total, but if you do
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: it that way, you're taking one of the biggest advantages
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: they have out of the equation, which is Snell. And
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: I don't really think you would want to do that. Um,
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: I guess there is an argument for the minus one
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: and a half run line here with the Dodgers, even
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: though they are very public. They pretty much have every
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: advantage in the game matchup wise. So and they're going
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: to bat in the ninth inning guaranteed because they're on
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: the road. So you could do it that way. Obviously,
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: it's a pass for me. I mean, I guess one
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: of the other things you could do is you could
• 35:11
  Speaker 3: do like a money line parlay. Even though you know me,
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: I hate parlays. But if you're going to do any
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: parlays at all, I would only do two different kinds.
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: They always have to be a two-leg because once you
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: start adding like a third leg or whatever, yeah, it's
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: cool because you get plus money and whatever. But your
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: odds to win that thing start going way, way down
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: because one loser is going to kill the whole thing.
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: So for me, it would be like you got to
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: just pick two. Make it a two-leg. Ideally, it would
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: be two things that are correlated, like a side and
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: a total in the same game, although a lot of
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: books just don't even allow that at this point because
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: they know it's correlated. But, yeah, I mean, you could take, like,
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: Dodgers and Tampa or something like that and put them
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: both in a money-line parlay and hope they both win,
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: although it's probably going to be pretty popular because today's
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: a baseball-only day, no football today, and WNBA's not back
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: until tomorrow. So, you know, it's probably going to be
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: a popular move for recreational bettors to make a parlay
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: like that today. Philly might be in their parlay as well.
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: But actually, you know what? I think if you're going
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: to do a parlay like that, I think you should
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: do Dodgers and Philly, to be honest. Yeah, I mean,
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: Philly's in a better situation to bounce back, in my opinion. So,
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'll talk about that in a minute. Although
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: I think all three of those teams should win. But
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: one of them is probably going to lose. It's just
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: a question of which one is it going to be. Yes, Xerox,
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: have a good day as well. That's true. I wonder
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: if StreamYard is... I'm assuming StreamYard interfaces with Kik. But yeah,
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: I got to look into it and see. Right, because yeah,
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: I mean, just adding another channel to stream to is
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: not really that hard. So, you know, I've thought about Rumble,
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: but Rumble's kind of going down the tubes in my opinion.
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: So I don't know about that. But yeah, I'll look
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: into Kik, I suppose. All right. Next game up is
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: one of my plays. I don't know how much I
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: love this play, but it was good enough to me
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: that I put it on the card. We're going to
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: take the Brewers on the money line, even though they're
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: a road favorite here. Minus 135. The public is going
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: to be on them as well. I don't love this
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: price range usually, but to me it seems like the
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: Brewers should win this game, man. Even though Pittsburgh, you know,
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is in one of those kind of bounce-back spots
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: where they lost yesterday to the Brewers in the return
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: home spot. You know, it's a difficult spot, returning home
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: from the road. A lot of times if that team
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: doesn't do well, which they did not, they lost 5-1.
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: A lot of times they bounce back after that. And
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: maybe Pittsburgh being below. 500 will be a little bit
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: of a motivator. And the fact that they're facing the
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: top team in the division may motivate them. But I
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: just don't see it, man. I think they're at a
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: match-up disadvantage here that's enough that I'm just going to
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: do it, and a big part of that is the bullpen,
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: so I'm going full game on this because Pittsburgh had
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game yesterday. This is one of the main
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: things I looked at as far as this handicap. Well,
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is already the lesser bullpen, and they went with
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: a bullpen game yesterday. I know it's September call-up, so
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: there are more guys in every bullpen, and they have
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: a couple of guys that didn't pitch yesterday, but they
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: used six guys out of the bullpen yesterday, man, so
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: they're at a disadvantage there. Milwaukee only used three, although yes,
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: they did use their closer, McGill, but he hadn't pitched
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: in like four days. So it's not out of the
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: realm of possibility they would use him again here. Milwaukee
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: is eighth in bullpen. They're better than Pittsburgh. Like I said,
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's number 19, so Milwaukee has the better bullpen, and
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: they have the rest advantage in the bullpen. Milwaukee is
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: the better offense at this point, number four, even though
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's been good at home offensively, but they've been... Really
• 38:59
  Speaker 3: not that good offensively recently, so I think they're fadable
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: in that way, too. They're number seven now in offense.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: But then, of course, we look at the starting pitching here,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: and Logan Henderson, he's a guy that I pretty much
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: always want to back, dude. Henderson's good. He's got a 2.34 ERA,.
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: 78 whip. That's completely elite. That's better than Mizzerowski right now.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: unless Miz got his down enough yesterday. Henderson's been ridiculously good. 2.84
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: roadie already. on the road but his numbers are still
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: good either way he's allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: in every single start this season hit rate is very
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: low he pretty much doesn't walk anybody either and he
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: strikes out a lot of guys so every number that
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: he has is really good 6.6 strikeout walk ratio that
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: is an elite number really really good 10.1 strikeout per
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: nine is also certainly not bad. A lot to like
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: here with him, man. And Pittsburgh has not done well
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: against him in the past. 25 at bats, 160 average,
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: 650 OPS. They've hit him for a little bit of power.
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: O'Neal Cruz and Jacob Gonzalez do each have a homer
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: off him. Those are the only two extra base hits
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: he's allowed, though. Six strikeouts, three walks. So yeah, I'm
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: fine with backing Henderson here, and in fact, not just fine,
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: I'm doing it. He pitched against Pittsburgh in August this year.
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: That's the only time he faced them, and he was
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: good against them. That was at home, but he was
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: good against them. I mean, hasn't had a bad start
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: this season. Let's not jinx him, but Henderson generally puts
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: his team in a very good position to win the game.
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: Jared Jones is on the other side for Pittsburgh. I
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: like Jones. I think he's good. I think he's a
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: little bit better than his 4.1 ERA would suggest. 1.17
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: whip is pretty good. I looked at this and I
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: was thinking maybe this would be an under. Jones, though,
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: is not as good at home. 4.6 home ERA this year,
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: even though his opponent batting average is actually better at home.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: But his ERA.
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: For whatever reason, I think it's mostly the home runs
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: that he's allowed and whatever, but yeah, he's a little
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: bit worse at home. He's in really good form right now, though,
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: and yes, I am fading him anyway. Even though his
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: last two starts, he allowed no runs in 13 innings
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: and only four hits. One of them was against Anaheim.
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, come on, man. We know the Brewers and Anaheim.
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're on a different planet as far as
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: their offenses. But then, yes, he did go on the road.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: He did shred the White Sox in his last start. So, yes,
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: Jones is starting to pitch really well right now. He's
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: got a low hit rate. His walk rate is okay.
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is high. Definitely got some talent here.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: As I said, two years ago, which was his only
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: other season, he pitched in the majors. Last year, he
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: was injured for the whole season. 3.3 strikeout walk ratio,
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: that's good. 10.5 strikeout per nine, also good. Problem is,
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee has been able to hit him. 35 at-bats against him,
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: 314 average strikeout. eight 48 OPS nine to one strikeout
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. That's a good ratio, but all the other
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: numbers suggest that Jones might struggle here in this one.
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: Not as good at home. Uh, matchup numbers seem to
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: heavily support Henderson over Jones here. And then plus I
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: think the bullpen is a big factor in this one, man.
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: I think we get, uh, the much better bullpen in
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: much better shape in this one after Pittsburgh had a
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: bullpen game. So you'll see a theme with me today. Um,
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: I'm going to be fading used bullpens today, so I
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: don't know if that's going to be any indicator of
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: what the one other play is that I'm going to make,
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: but Milwaukee seems like the money agrees with this. 72%
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 91% of the cash on them. I like
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: my other play better than this one, but I like
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: this one enough to throw it on there too. I
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: know the total is 7.5. The money is coming in
• 42:40
  Speaker 3: pretty strongly in the under. I still agree, actually, with
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: the under here, but Pittsburgh's bullpen worries me, though. I mean,
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: if you're doing a full game, you're at least getting
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: under the 7.5, and you're getting two pretty good starters
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: and one good bullpen. But again, all the things that
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: would give me pause on the under, all of them
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: are Pittsburgh's pitching. You know what I mean? It would
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: be Jones has bad matchup numbers, Pittsburgh's bullpen isn't as good,
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: and it's used up, so... Those would all be my
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: concerns with the under, even though, yes, I still agree
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: with the under in this game, but I think the
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee side is the better way to play this thing.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: You could go Pittsburgh under their team total as well.
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: That's kind of dangerous in a home game for them, though.
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: Although recently, yeah, their hitting hasn't been as good. Yeah,
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: and then first five under is certainly an option. These
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: two starting pitchers might be able to Do that, you
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? Which I know that does indicate
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: more towards the underdog if you think it's going to
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: be a low-scoring game, but I think Milwaukee gets out
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: of here with a win. I think once it gets
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: to the bullpens, they should have a big enough edge
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: to get the thing done. If Henderson doesn't give them
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: enough of an edge already. Yeah, that's what I got
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: in that game, but first five under makes some sense.
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: You'll be looking at a three and a half on
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: that one if you do that. All right, Philadelphia and Washington.
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: Washington won yesterday, 6-3. They won four games in a row.
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, they're getting up for a game against Philly
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: because it's like, well, you know, I mean, we get
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: to play against a team that's probably going to be
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs, maybe play spoiler a little bit. Like,
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Washington has a chance to knock Philly, at least to
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: keep them in the second wildcard spot so that Philly
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: doesn't get a home series in the wildcard against the Cubs.
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: That's basically where Philly's at right now. But Philly might
• 44:27
  Speaker 3: bounce back here, you know what I mean? Philly knows
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: they lost yesterday, and Philly has a pretty huge pitching
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: matchup edge in this game, in my opinion. So Philly
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: should win this game. They also have the better bullpen
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: and the more rested bullpen. They only used two guys
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: out of the bullpen, even though I don't like Philly's bullpen,
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: but they're better than Washington. Washington used four guys yesterday.
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia is the 18th ranked bullpen, which is okay. Washington's
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: number 26, not very good. Washington is the better offense.
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: They're number three. Philadelphia number 21, so Washington does have
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: the edge there. But the pitching should be able to
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: defeat the hitting, and Zach Wheeler is on the mound
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: for Philly. Good season from him again. 3.14 ERA, 1.07 whip.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: He missed a little bit at the beginning of the season.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit worse on the road, but
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: still pretty good. 3.38 road ERA. He had a little
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: bit of a... a blip where he had kind of
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: a bad month of August, but he bounced back nicely
• 45:27
  Speaker 3: with his last start in August, and both of his
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: starts in September have been quite good. He's allowed only
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: two runs in his 13 innings this month against the
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: Braves in Houston, so he wasn't facing really weak offenses here.
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: So Wheeler is definitely back in form here. So we
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: do not have to worry about his age, you know,
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: and whether he's fatigued. Well, maybe you do, but, you know,
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: because it looked like he was fatiguing, but his last
• 45:49
  Speaker 3: three starts kind of indicate that he's fine. He's back.
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: He's got a low hit rate, a pretty low walk rate,
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate. All those numbers are good. 3.8 strikeout
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: walk ratio is a little bit lower than what he's
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: posted in recent years, but it's still pretty good. 10.8
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: strikeout per nine is good as well. Numbers against Washington
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: are pretty good as well. 100 at bats, 31 strikeouts,
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: five walks. That's a really good ratio.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: 210 average.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: So they don't hit him well for average, but they
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: do have some power hitting against him. 725 OPS is
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: not exactly low, but I still think Wheeler can get
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: the job done here. And Washington's going with Jared Simpson.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: I don't know much about Simpson. His ERA isn't really
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: indicative of what he is. His ERA is pretty bad, 6.75,
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: but his whip is.
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: 75.
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: So, you know, you're looking at a really small sample
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: size here. He's only pitched four innings this year. And
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: he hasn't allowed a hit yet. But he's allowed three
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: runs because he's walked three guys. And I guess all
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: of them came around to score against San Diego. He
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: didn't record an out in that appearance. That was his
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: most recent appearance. That's not good, obviously. Four strikeouts, three walks.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: What the hell are we going to get out of
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: Simpson here? I have no clue, dude. He's been a
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: relief pitcher, though. He hasn't pitched more than three innings
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: in any of his outings, so I think you're going
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: to see a lot of Washington's bullpen in this game.
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: I think it's essentially going to be somewhat of a
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: bullpen game here, so I think they're at a disadvantage
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: in this game. Maybe Simpson will do all right because
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: Philly's never seen him before, but after that, you get
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: Washington's bullpen, and for Philly, you're getting Wheeler for probably
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: a decent amount of innings here, so I do not
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: think that Philly's going to lose this game after losing yesterday.
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: They're up to minus 190-something from an opener, minus 130-something.
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: I assume Washington was going to have some other starter pitch,
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: and then when they announced Simpson, it must have made
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: the numbers shift way towards Philly here. That's my guess.
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: But Philly is public, 93% of tickets and cash on them.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: Money's coming in on the over 8.5 as well. I
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: don't know about that. You could go Philly over their
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: team total, I guess, if you wanted to do something
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: like that. But again, I think you want to have Wheeler...
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: You want that advantage. Whatever you're betting, you want to
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: have the advantage of backing Wheeler. You know what I mean?
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: So again, I think maybe you could do like... I mean,
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: I guess you could lay the minus one and a
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: half runs on the run line here and try to
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: get the win by margin here with Philly. It's certainly possible.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: Even though the total's kind of low. Well, not really
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: that low. It's at eight and a half. It opens
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: seven and a half, but again, I think because Washington
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: switched their pitcher, it's now up to eight and a half.
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: Washington seems to play a fair amount of high-scoring home
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: games too, although Philly's not as good of an offense
• 48:33
  Speaker 3: on the road, but Washington allows a lot of runs
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: at home, so it's like which one of those wins out?
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know. But yeah, I mean, Philly should win
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: this game, but that's obvious. Everybody knows that, and the
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: oddsmakers know it too. Again, you could do the parlay thing,
• 48:50
  Speaker 3: and you could moneyline parlay Philly and the Dodgers and
• 48:53
  Speaker 3: hope they both win. It's going to be popular, though,
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: and the Bucs are going to need one of those
• 48:58
  Speaker 3: two teams to lose, so we'll see what happens there.
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: Baltimore at the Mets is the ESPN primetime game. There
• 49:05
  Speaker 3: are three games on ESPN today. So ESPN carrying a
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: lot of baseball today, which is kind of unlike ESPN, really.
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: But I think it's because the US Open finished and
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: whatever so now ESPN is oh crap we can't show
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: tennis anymore now we have to show baseball again I
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: don't know Baltimore at the Mets here Mets are one
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: of those home teams trying to avoid a sweep here
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: man so maybe the Mets would be the way to
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: look as far as the situation is concerned but you
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: have to back Robert Stock If you have any information,
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: contact Unsolved Mysteries. Burbank, California. Yeah, so if you think
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: you want to back him, that's what you have to
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: do if you want to play the Mets to avoid
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: the sweep here. Baltimore is at least playing with motivation
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: right now because they're still in the wild card hunt.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: So Baltimore has more to play for here. And I
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: did lean to Baltimore in the first two games of
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: this series. Didn't give out a play on either of them,
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: but they did win both games. Mets used a bunch
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: of relief pitchers yesterday. They used five, which is not
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: exactly great. Their bullpen is pretty good, though. Baltimore also
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: used a bunch. It looks like they used seven. So
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: was that an extra inning game? Let me see. Yeah,
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: it was. It was an 11 inning game. This is
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: not the game that I'm giving out as a play. Actually,
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: you know what? Maybe I should. Because I looked at
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: this pitching matchup and I was like, oh yeah, this
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: clearly looks like an over to me. And now that
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: you're looking at two bullpens that are very unrested here. Mmm,
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: it's making me like the over a bit more. Let
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: me see. Let me go through this again here. I
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: don't think it's going to happen, but hold on. Let
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: me see. Like, as far as making it a play,
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, Mets are No. 7 in bullpens. They're a
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: good bullpen generally. Baltimore is not bad either at No. 10. Offensively,
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: we know these teams are not that good. The Mets
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: are No. 24. Baltimore is No. 22, tied with San Diego.
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: But Chris Bassett, his pitcher for Baltimore, he's not good. 4.88 ERA, 1.59 whip.
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: He's really bad on the road. 6.13 road ERA. He's
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: not allowing too many runs over his last couple... He
• 51:20
  Speaker 3: has not allowed many runs over his last few... Well, really,
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: only one of his recent starts he allowed a bunch
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: of runs. That was on the road at the A's Stadium, though, where,
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: you know, it's very hitter-friendly, whatever. But he's allowed three
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: or fewer earned runs than all of his other recent starts.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: Problem is... This month he also has an 11-7 strikeout
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, so he's walking a lot of guys. So
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: his ERA is kind of misleadingly low this month. He's
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: got a high hit rate on the season. He spent
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: a lot of the time in the minors because he's
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: just not pitching well anymore. Not that he ever was
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: that good, but he's not good this year for sure.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is just okay at best. His strikeout
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: rate is very low. Strikeout walk ratio is terrible, 1.8,
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: one of the worst he's ever had. 6.6 strikeout per nine,
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: also one of the lowest he's ever posted. His numbers
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: against the Mets, however, are actually really good. So that's
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: kind of where I start struggling with this. Maybe I'm
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: weighing the matchup too much, but it's, I think, just
• 52:17
  Speaker 3: going to kind of keep me away from actually going
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: with the over here. But I like the over in
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: this game. But the Mets have 74 at-bats against him,
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: 25 strikeouts, four walks, 189 average, 474 OPS. So Bassett
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: has kind of dominated the Mets historically. I don't know
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: if I want to do it, man. Robert Stock on
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: the other side, he's definitely fadable. This guy, I don't
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: know how he has a job right now. I'm sorry,
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: but he's 36. He's never really done anything in the majors.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: He's barely pitched in the majors. This year he's got
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: a 5.93 ERA, 1.75 whip. This is not good, although
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: he's actually better at home, 4.5 home ERA. Still not great.
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: He's been actually serviceable in his last couple of appearances,
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: so not too bad here. But he's got a high
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: hit rate on the season. His walk rate's pretty bad
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: as well. His strikeout rate is okay. He actually strikes
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: out a decent amount of guys. But his walk rate
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: is like one every two innings, so he's got a 1.9
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio here. That's not good. 8.6 strikeout per
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: nine is all right. Stock basically has no.
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: History against the Orioles, except Alonzo, who is formerly a Met,
• 53:29
  Speaker 3: I believe. Alonzo's 0-3 off him with a strikeout. The
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: Polar Bear, whatever the hell his name is. Pete Alonzo,
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: you would think he wouldn't be as white as he is.
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: So Stock has been able to do okay against him. Yeah,
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: I like the over in this one. I just don't
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: know if I can quite get there. But the shape
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: that the bullpens are in... That helps, but we're also
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: looking at offenses that aren't really that good. We're looking
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: at bullpens that are generally pretty good. The money is
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: strongly supporting the over here, though, and you might be
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: able to find an 8.5 on this. It looks like
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: it's mostly 9, though. But as long as you at
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: least don't have to go over to the 9.5, as
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: long as it's the 9 or lower, it might be
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: worth it. Hold on. 60% of tickets on the over,
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: 93% of the cash on the over. So the money
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: is backing the over. The Mets, by the way, at
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: minus 130-something. Again, like I've said throughout this series, the
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: Mets being favored like this, even though the team with
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: the worst record and with nothing to play for, With
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: Baltimore being the more motivated team, that tells you something
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: as far as the side is concerned. But Baltimore's getting
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: the money again. 53% of tickets on the Mets, 79%
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: of the cash on Baltimore. I think Baltimore's gotten the
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: money in every game in the series. But it surprises
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: me the public would have any sort of lean towards
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: the Mets here because you would have to, wouldn't you think,
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: I've said this throughout the series, wouldn't you think that
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: the public would see this and be like, how am
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: I getting Baltimore, the team that needs to win and
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: has the better record, how am I getting them as
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: an underdog here? And especially in this game, how the
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: hell is Robert Stock a favorite in this game? You
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? I mean, I know Bassett is bad,
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: but he's at least like an actual starter. I mean,
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry. It's just crazy that Stock does not deserve
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: to be a favorite like this. So I actually, I
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: agree with the money in this one. Again, I agree
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: with Baltimore in this one, but I think the way
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: better way to play this game is the over. And
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: I'm strongly considering it right now as we sit here.
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: Hold on, let me say. I don't know, the bullpen
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: usage is kind of making me think that I want
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: to do this, but let me see. Yeah, the money
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: seems like it's supporting it. And it's not really, I'm
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: looking at Action Network though, which Action Network has a different,
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: like the read on it looks different on Action Network
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: than it does on this screen here. Let me see here. Man,
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: there are just so many things that kind of scream
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: that this is going to be an over, but I
• 56:11
  Speaker 3: don't know. It's like it goes against everything in me
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: to do it with, I'll pass. It goes, I don't know,
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: it goes against everything in me to try to fade
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: a pitcher, even though it's Bassett and he sucks. He's
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: got the good matchup numbers there, so I'm going to
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: stay off of it. Maybe I'm being way too selective,
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: but If I was going to add another play, yeah,
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: it would be the over in that game. All right,
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: Atlanta at Chicago. The Cubs, I mean, this is a
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: big series. Both teams have split the series here. Cubs
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: trying to maintain or they're trying to get the second
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: wild card spot or excuse me, the first wild card
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: spot so they can host Philadelphia in the wild card series. Uh,
• 56:59
  Speaker 3: as far as Atlanta, I mean, Atlanta is almost locked
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: into the number three seat. I'm pretty sure. Cause the
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: Dodgers and Milwaukee are so far ahead of them. I
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: think it looks like Atlanta is guaranteed to be the
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: number three team in the NL at this point, which
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: means they're not going to get a buy. It is
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: what it is, man. Uh, on the surface, the Cubs
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: have the better starting pitcher in this matchup as well.
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: So maybe the Cubs are the right side here again.
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Cubs have only won one of the
• 57:23
  Speaker 3: two games so far, but the Cubs have been favored
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: in every game in the series. And part of it
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: might have to do with the motivation of it. You
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? Like the Cubs kind of have
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: more to play for here with Atlanta almost being locked
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: into the number three. The Cubs are fighting in that
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: four versus five. You know, they're fighting for fourth place
• 57:43
  Speaker 3: versus fifth place in the standings. um Cubs used three
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: relief pitchers yesterday Atlanta is the better bullpen though Atlanta
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: used two Atlanta's the number two bullpen right now I
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: think they're number three or number four in reality um
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: Cubs are not too bad at number 16 offensively the
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: Cubs are number one they've been very good offensively Atlanta
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: is number 12 tied with the White Sox so they're
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: not bad either Atlanta's going with J.R. Ritchie in this game,
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: who I think must have been back down in the minors,
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: and then they brought him back up in September. He's
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: a young guy, man. He's pitched a little bit in
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: the majors this year, which I think is his only
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: season so far, yeah. He's made eight starts, six relief appearances.
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: He's got a 4.5 ERA, 1.43 whip, which is not
• 58:27
  Speaker 3: very good, really. He's a little bit worse on the road,
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: excuse me, 4.55 road ERA. Those opponent batting averages are
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: actually better on the road. He's not pitching deep in
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: any of his recent outings, though. Most of his outings
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: on the season, he hasn't really gone that deep. He
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: did really early in the season, but since then, he
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: hasn't really done that. His hit rate is alright. His
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: walk rate is way too high, though. And his strikeout
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: rate is alright. So, obviously, the thing that he needs
• 58:56
  Speaker 3: to correct is his control. He's walking way too many guys.
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: He's got a 1.5 strikeout walk ratio. That's not going
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: to be good enough. 8.2 strikeout per nine is fine,
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: but you've got to stop walking, people, man. He's been
• 59:10
  Speaker 3: good against the Cubs, though. He had one start against
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: the Cubs early this season. They have 12 at-bats against him,
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: no extra base hits, 167 average, 500 OPS, 4.3 strikeout
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: walk ratio. What do we do with that info? I
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: don't know, man, because what it does mean, though, is
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: the Cubs are familiar with him now. I always talk
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: about that, how the young pitcher, when they have unfamiliarity,
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: they tend to have a little bit more of an
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: advantage against the hitters. But the Cubs haven't seen him
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: since May. He did all right in that outing, though.
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: But maybe the Cubs, having seen him back then, maybe
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: they kind of know what he's going to throw and
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: they'll be able to do a little bit better against him.
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: I don't know. Imanaga, I think, is the.
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's obviously the pitcher that's more proven, at least,
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I think he's the better of the two
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: pitchers here. He's pitching for the Cubs. Shota Imanaga, 3.88 ERA, 1.12 whip,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: pretty good here. He's not as good at home, 4.15
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: home ERA, but he has had to pitch in some
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: of those, like, wind-blowing-out conditions in Wrigley that I think
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 3: has hurt him a little bit as far as the
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: home runs he's allowed. He's pitching pretty well recently, though.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: He had one bad start in here recently against Cincinnati,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: but the rest of his recent starts have been pretty good.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: He seems to be in okay form right now, at least.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: His hit rate is all right in the season. He
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: doesn't walk many guys. His strikeout rate is okay as well. 4.2
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio is not bad at all. 8.6 strikeout
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: per nine is fairly good as well. Numbers against the
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: Braves are not excellent, but they're a little bit in
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: his favor here. 63 at bats, 13 strikeouts, two walks.
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 3: Very good ratio there. 254 average allowed, 721 OPS. Those
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 3: numbers are all right. A couple of guys in the
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: lineup do some significant damage against them, mostly Albies, Albies,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: 5 for 12 with a couple home runs off him.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: He's the guy that hits them the best, and Olsen
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 3: is 5 for 11 with a triple. So those two
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: guys hit him well, but the rest of this lineup
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: doesn't do a whole lot against them. What do we
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: do with this one? I don't know, man. It seems
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: like it's kind of the Cubs... game to lose here,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: but the money's coming in against them. 78% of tickets,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: 65% of the cash on them. They're at minus 150-something here.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: Money fading the Cubs here, though. I don't think I'd
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: want to back Atlanta here, though, man. I know Atlanta
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: does have the better bullpen. I think Cubs' first five
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: makes some sense to me here. You'll have to lay
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: like a half run with them in the first five,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: but I think Imanaga has the edge over Ritchie, so...
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: That might be worth a look. Cubs first five. I
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: think the other possibility here is to take the game
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: under the total. The total is seven and a half,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 3: which is pretty low. So I think it means... Wind
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: probably is actually blowing in a little bit here because
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: I don't think a game with Richie as one of
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: the starters would have a total that low. Otherwise, even
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: though Imanaga gets enough respect that it might happen, but
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: usually I don't think Richie would. So I think there
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: might be some wind blowing in a little bit here.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: The money is coming in on the over, though. 60%
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: of tickets, 84% of the cash, or 55% of tickets now,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: 84% of the cash on the over. I like the
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: under in that game, though. Maybe that's the best way
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: to play the game is the under, but I have
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: a slight lean towards the Cubs in the first five
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: as well. All right, I'll be right back, and then
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: I'll talk about the Red Sox, even though I do
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: not want to talk about this fucking team. Give me
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: a second. Yep, inside, I want to kill myself. We
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: are on an 0-7 run over the last two days.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: After tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's how
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: I'm going to start off this show. Horrible Sunday, 1-5.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: I have not had a good season, man. Look at
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: this slump that I'm on. The slump continues. I've reached
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn my Bruins hat, man.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: March 8th?
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: Is that what it is? I don't even know. It's
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 3: March 9th, I think. Who even knows, man. I don't
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: what day it is anymore, man. Back with you after
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: the worst day that I could possibly have. Back with
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: you as I always am. Until I die, at least.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 3: 0-2 yesterday, and yesterday did not go well for me. 0-5,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 3: the worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: point other than potentially end it all. All right, we
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: have Red Sox and Texas here. Texas probably has more
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: to play for because they're fighting for their lives to
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: try to make the playoffs, either by winning the division
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: or getting a wild card. The Red Sox are in
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: decent shape to get the number two wild card spot,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: close to being locked into it. Sandoval pitched yesterday for
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox, who I think he should be out
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: of a job. I mean, he wasn't terrible. I mean,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, he wasn't good in the
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: game yesterday, but Texas scored few enough runs that the
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: Red Sox had a chance to win that game once
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: it got to the bullpens because the Red Sox have
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen. They couldn't get it done. They lost 4-2,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: even though it was a Texas loss. return home spot,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: but Texas wound up pitching to Grom in the game yesterday,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure, so that helped Texas a lot, obviously,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: because it looked like they were going to be going
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: with Bradford. If I had known that it was to Grom,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: then my opinion on that game would have changed to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: probably the under, and that is what happened yesterday, because
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: Sandoval actually had decent numbers against Texas in his career.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: This game, it's a pick and price here. I think
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox do have the pitching edge in this one.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox do have the bullpen edge as well.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: They used four relief pitchers yesterday. Texas also used four, though.
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: And Texas had to use some to close the game
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: out as well. Red Sox are the number one bullpen here,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: although Slayton is not coming back now. He's been hurt for,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: I don't know, a month now, and he had a setback,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: and now they're shutting him down for the season. So
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: that's kind of a blow to the Red Sox bullpen edge.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: Eric Miller, I think they're both lefties if I'm not mistaken.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: Eric Miller is going to have to be the guy now.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: So that trade may be working well for the Red
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: Sox here. Hopefully for my sake, as a Red Sox fan,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: that will be good enough. But yeah, their bullpen is
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: still good. Very good. The Texas bullpen has not been
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: very good this year. Number 21, so the Red Sox
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: have the edge there. Red Sox are also the better offense.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: They're still ranked 9th. Texas is number 17 overall. tie
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: with San Francisco this is a pitcher friendly ballpark though
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: Red Sox have Jake Bennett going here he's had a
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: pretty good season this has been his rookie season I'm
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 3: pretty sure 3.69 ERA 1.07 whip that's pretty good he's
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: actually better on the road as well 3.19 road ERA
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: so this might be a decent setup for him he
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: was not good at home last time out against Anaheim
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: though which is Not a good sign, because that is
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: not a good Anaheim offense, and Bennett was not good
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 3: against them. But maybe he got a little bit unlucky.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: He allowed three home runs there, but he's allowed five
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: home runs in his last two starts. He's got to
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 3: get that down, man, because other than that, he was
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: not allowing that many home runs on the season, so
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: I don't know what's going on with him there. He
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 3: might be able to bounce back, though, because he was
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 3: pitching fairly well prior to that. Hopefully he can bounce
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: back here in a spot like this. He's got a
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: low hit rate on the season. He really doesn't walk anybody,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: and his strikeout rate is... Not high, but because he
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: walks so few people, he has a 4.4 strikeout walk ratio,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: which is pretty good. 7.1 strikeout per nine is not great.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: He's not a huge strikeout pitcher. He might be able
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 3: to do all right here. Texas has never faced him before,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: so Bennett does have that unfamiliarity edge possibility here where
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: Texas might have to figure him out. live on the
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: fly and not do well the first couple times they
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 3: have to see him so that might help Bennett early
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: in this game meanwhile Mackenzie Gore is pitching for Texas
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 3: I think he's all right 4.62 ERA though 1.35 whip
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: those numbers obviously not excellent he's good at home though
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: he pitches well in this pitcher friendly stadium 3.36 home
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: ERA however he's not in good form right now Not
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: at all. He's failed to make it five innings in
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: three of his last four starts. He's allowed four or
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: more runs in three of the four. He's had tons
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 3: of walks here. Over that span, he has 14 walks
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: and 11 strikeouts. That's not good. So not good at all.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: So he is not in good form right now. His
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: hit rate is okay on the season. He's usually a
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: lot less hittable than that, though. His walk rate is
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: still pretty high on the season. He does have a
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: lot of strikeouts, though. He's always been a pretty good
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: strikeout pitcher. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is not good, though,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: given how many strikeouts he gets, which is 9.6 Ks
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: per nine. That means his walk rate is way too high,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: which it is. He's also not particularly good against the
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 3: Red Sox. They have 39 at-bats against him, 385 average, 1,068 OPS,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: 10-6 strikeout walk ratio, and I guess good for the
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: Red Sox that they have Wilson Contreras back um because
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: he kills Mackenzie Gore nine for 16 with a home
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: run three doubles four strikeouts and a walk so hopefully
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 3: that'll help the Red Sox offense here Rutschman also has
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: some pretty good numbers against him um we'll see man
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: but I think I do lean to the Red Sox
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: in this one um I think that's probably the way
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: I would play it if I was going to play
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 3: the game um What are we looking at for the price?
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 3: The price is right around a pick. It looks like
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: the money doesn't agree with it. 81% of the tickets
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 3: and only 62% of the cash on the Red Sox.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to tell you, man. The total
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 3: is at 7.5 basically or 8. I can see the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: argument for the under as well because Gore does pitch
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: better at home, but I don't know, man. His current
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: form and his matchup numbers don't look good to me
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: for that. Bennett, you know, I mean... He's pitched all right,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: although his current form isn't exactly great either, but I
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: think the unfamiliarity should help him out at least a
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: little bit there. I don't know what to tell you
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: otherwise about that. The money is still coming in on Milwaukee,
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: by the way, and I don't know what it looks
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: like in my other play today. Let me take a
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 3: look here. I mean, I guess it's kind of agreeing
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: with me on the other play. Dude, this Solana person.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: What the fuck is this shit? I'm going to block
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: this fucker. Like, what are we doing here, man? Stop
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: spamming my Twitter chat here. Hang on. Yeah, it's some
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: crypto bullshit. Blocked. Now try to comment on my shit, fucker. Yeah, done.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 3: I'm so sick of this bullshit, man. All right, now.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: Next game is, let me see, Kansas City-Houston. Houston, they
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: have more to play for. They won the game yesterday,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: even though it was a return home spot. They won anyway, 4-2.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 3: Houston keeping pace with Texas. They're really in a heated
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: battle here for the AL West right now. Either team
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: could win it at this point, man. It's close. Houston
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: gets the benefit of playing the Royals here, though. Houston
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: does not have a good pitcher pitching in this game today, though.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 3: Houston used four relief pitchers yesterday. Kansas City used two.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: Kansas City's bullpen is very bad, though. They're ranked dead last.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: I think they're the second or third worst bullpen. Houston
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: is number 13, so Houston's the better bullpen here. Houston
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: is also the better offense. They're tied with the Yankees
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: in 10th place. Kansas City is number 19. Kansas City
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: going with Daniel Lynch, number four here. He's got a 3.52 ERA,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: a 1.1 whip. He's been all right this year. A
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: lot of this has been out of the bullpen, though.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: He's not quite as good on the road. He's got
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: a four-road ERA, but he's been fairly decent as a starter,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: but he doesn't really go deep in his outings. His
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: last two outings, they finally let him go five innings
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: in each of them, and he's not striking out a
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: lot of guys, though. So I don't know if he's
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: exactly good, even though his numbers make him look all right.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: He does have a low hit rate on the season.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: His walk rate's not too bad. Really doesn't strike anybody out, though.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: So he appears to be kind of a junk pitcher,
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: at least. He's got a 2.2 strikeout walk ratio, which
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: is not that impressive at all. 6.2 strikeout per nine
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 3: is definitely pretty low as well. Lynch against Houston. He's
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 3: been good, though. They have 23 at-bats against him. They
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: only have one hit against him. A double from Altuve.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: Three strikeouts, one walk. They have an 0-43 average against
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: him and 170 OPS. I know it's not a big sample,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: but one for 23 is still pretty ridiculous. So Lynch
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: has actually done pretty well against Houston. Houston's got Christian
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 3: Javier pitching. He does not Javier it this year. 5.5 ERA, 1.46 whip.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 3: He's had some okay seasons, but I think he's had
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 3: some injury issues, and he's not looking good right now.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: He's been a little bit better at home, 5.4 home ERA,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: but his opponent batting average is significantly better. at home
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: it's a very small sample size though he's been pretty
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: good in his last two starts though he's got 11
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: innings and only allowed four hits one uh two runs
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: one in each of those starts 13k is four walks
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: so he is in good form in september one home
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 3: start against arizona one road start against philly so those
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: are not exactly offenses that are horrible So he is
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: pitching a little bit better right now. So he's in
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: good form right now, at least, and they've won both
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 3: of those games. Does have a high hit rate on
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: the season, though. Does have too high of a walk
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: rate on the season. His strikeout rate is pretty good, though. 2.4
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, not that good, though. 8.9 strikeout per
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: nine is all right. His numbers against the Royals are
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 3: pretty good. 29 at-bats, 207 average, 709 OPS allowed, 5-1
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, so what do we do with
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: this game, man? Houston's going to be a pretty big favorite,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: I think. They're like in the minus 160s. 85% of
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: tickets on them, 57% of the cash on Kansas City.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: So the money actually back in Kansas City... If I
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: was going to back Kansas City, I could see the
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: argument for it. The argument for it is you're paying
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: way too much for Houston. Maybe Javier shouldn't be favored
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: like that. Lynch at least does have good numbers against Houston,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: but you do not want to back the Royals bullpen.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: So if you're going to back Kansas City, I would
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: say do it in the first five only. And you'll
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: take like a half run on the run line probably
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: and maybe get it done that way. Totals at eight
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: and a half or nine, but I actually think the
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: first five under is is worth considering here, although the
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: money's coming in on the over, 57% of tickets, 92%
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over, both pitchers have decent
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers here, and Lynch might be able to get
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: you almost five innings, they've been letting him do that recently,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: and Javier's been much better in his last two starts,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 3: so first five could be low scoring enough to get
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: that thing under, you might be able to find like
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: a five on that or four and a half, even
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 3: though usually when I see a high total, I think
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: the move is to take it over the total. But
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: those are my thoughts there. San Diego at Colorado. We
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 3: got the over correct in this game yesterday, nine to
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 3: three win for Colorado. But like I said, this game
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 3: should have been even higher scoring than that. We had
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: 27 hits in the game, man. Uh, San Diego only
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 3: scoring three runs on 11 hits. Really? I mean, come on, man. Um,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: San Diego only had one... They only drew one walk, though.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 3: Each team only drew one walk. There were a very
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: limited amount of walks in this game, but the hitting
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 3: was definitely on point in the game, though. All right.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: We got it done, though. We got the win. Now,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 3: San Diego might be in a bounce-back mode because, you know,
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: they're fighting for that last wild-card spot with Arizona here.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 3: San Diego took the loss yesterday. Problem is, they lost
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 3: a long win streak. They lost an eight-game win streak
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: or something. You know I talk about that when a team...
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 3: Loses a win streak like that, a lot of times
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 3: it'll hang them over into the next game. So that's
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: maybe an issue for San Diego with the situation here.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: They might get a little bit hung over. Even though
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: you think, well, the better team should bounce back after
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 3: a loss, I'm not so sure about that. After you
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: lose a long win streak, it's a little bit more
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: difficult to do that because you're just not used to losing.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: San Diego does have the better bullpen by far, though.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: They only used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 3: and not really their better relievers at all. Colorado didn't
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: use any, though, so Colorado must have done some multiple
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 3: starter combination yesterday. I didn't really look at who the
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: pitchers were, but something like that. San Diego's the better bullpen.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: We know that. They're number six. They're probably a top
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: five bullpen. Colorado's not even close. They're number 27. Colorado
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: is the better offense. They're number five. San Diego, number 22,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: tied with Baltimore. Robbie Ray pitching for San Diego here.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: He's been okay-ish, 3.57 ERA. 1.35 whip is not very good, though.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: It does indicate that his ERA should be higher than
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: it is. He pitched most of the season with San Francisco,
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: and then San Diego got him at the trade deadline.
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: He's not as good on the road, 3.98 road ERA.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: Wasn't good in his last two starts. He was pitching
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: fairly well for a bit for San Diego, but his
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 3: last two starts, not good. Won against the Yankees at home,
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: but he should pitch better than that at home, or
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: he is better. We still got the underwrite in that game,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 3: even though Ray was not good. And then his last start,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: he was kind of bad at San Francisco. And the
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 3: problem is the walks. He's had a ton of walks recently.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: Three or more walks in all but one start with
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 3: San Diego so far. Four each in his last two starts.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 3: More walks than strikeouts in his last couple starts. Yeah,
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: that's a huge problem. His walks have been a major,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: major issue here. He's also pitched in Colorado twice this year,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 3: by the way, and not really great results. One of
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: them he was actually decent. He went six innings, allowed
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: three runs. The other one earlier in the season, he
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: only went four innings, and he allowed one earned run,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 3: but he wasn't really great in that one. He's got
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: a decent hit rate here, but his walk rate is
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: really high. Strikeout rate is not great. Strikeout walk ratio
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 3: for him is going to be really bad. Yeah, it's 1.6.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: That's not good at all. 7.6 strikeout per nine. His
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 3: walk rate is really, really high. huge problem. He walks
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 3: way too many guys. He's also not good against the
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: Colorado Rockies, and maybe it'll be the Colorado Walkies against him.
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 3: 72 at-bats, so it's a big sample here. They have
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: a 319 average against him. 868 OPS, 23 strikeouts, and
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: 11 walks. So Ray, I don't think he sets up
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: well in this game. Oh, and by the way, he's
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 3: allowed 21 home runs this year in 156 and a
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: third innings. Has a really extreme fly ball rate too,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: so that's not good. Pitching in Coors Field, so he
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 3: does not have a style that's really good for Coors Field,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: even though he hasn't been that bad in that stadium
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 3: this year, but still a lot of things going against
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 3: Ray here. Colorado's going with Mason Adams. I have no
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 3: idea what to think of this guy. He's got a 3.38 ERA,
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: but his whip is bad, 1.45. It does indicate that
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 3: his ERA should be higher than it is he has
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: not been very good in course field 5.79 home era
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: it's really one start that's skewing the numbers so he's
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 3: only made one home start but he was not good
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: against st louis they hit him around quite a bit
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: they got a lot of hits off him and he's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 3: given up a home run in every start that he's
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 3: made it all the road starts included He has a
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: good strikeout rate, though. His hit rate is one per inning,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: which is a problem. He's allowed a lot of home runs,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: which is a problem, especially considering he only has one
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 3: home start. His walk rate's not really that good either,
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 3: but his strikeout rate is high, so he does at
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: least fool guys at the major league level. 2.4 strikeout
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: walk ratio, 10.6 strikeout per nine is at least good.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 3: San Diego hasn't seen him before, so he does have
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: this unfamiliarity here against San Diego, so maybe that will
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: help him out a little bit. There is an argument
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: for Colorado here, man. Like I said, San Diego losing
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: the win streak could hang them over here. Ray does
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 3: not match up well here, and Adams is really just
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 3: kind of a wild card. If you wanted to do it,
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: you could play Colorado in the first five here. I
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: would not take them in the full game, but I
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: think I would not disagree with leaning towards Colorado in
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 3: the first five here. 93% of the tickets and cash
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: on San Diego, so they're heavily public. They're at minus
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: 170 here. The public is obviously not going to be
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: playing Colorado at all. So, yeah, maybe plus the half
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: run in the first five on Colorado makes some sense here.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: I would also lean over again in this one. I
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 3: think both pitchers... Could potentially give it up, and Adams
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: might not last that long, so you're probably going to
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: see a lot of Colorado's bullpen again. Over makes a
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: lot of sense in this one, too. The total's at
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: 11 and 11 and a half. If you're going to
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: play the over, I would try to find the 11.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: It looks like DK, the crown, has it right now
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: if you want to find it there. It's juiced, but
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: it looks like you might be able to find that.
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: 11's the key number, right? Just like yesterday. I would
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: rather I go over the 11 than the 11 and
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 3: a half. 54% of tickets on the under, 92% of
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: the cash on the over. All right. So the money
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: is definitely agreeing with the over in that one. Seattle
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: and Anaheim. Seattle finally got a win yesterday, I believe.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 3: I know they did not. What am I saying? They
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: did not. Anaheim won again. What am I saying? Seattle's dead, dude.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: They're dead. I think Seattle might be unbackable for the
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 3: rest of the season, at least until they get over
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 3: this mindset. I can't believe we're done because Seattle, they
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 3: made the ALCS last year and they're a similar team
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: this year. They're expected to be right there again. I
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: expected them to win this division this year. I said
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: I thought Seattle would win this division and that I
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 3: believe I said Houston and Texas would be battling for
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 3: second place and potentially a wild card. Very disappointing season
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: for Seattle. But they probably want to try to avoid
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: getting swept here at least, right? I don't know, man.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 3: Anaheim plays Minnesota next. It's not really a look ahead.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: But Anaheim, I mean, yeah, they've been focused in the series.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: They're trying to. and seattle pretty much but seattle yeah
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: i think they're gonna at least try to at least
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: not get embarrassed here and get swept by anaheim but
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: i don't know man is not getting embarrassed enough to
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: motivate you here when you've had this disappointing of a
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: season you've fallen that short of your expectations i don't
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: know seattle used two relief pitchers yesterday their bullpen's been
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 3: a big disappointment this year anaheim used three um Seattle
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: is No. 20 in bullpen. They've been pretty bad this year.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 3: Anaheim is No. 22, but their ERA is actually a
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: little bit better. I don't think I'd want to back
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: either bullpen here, though. Both offenses have been pretty bad.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 3: Seattle No. 28, Anaheim No. 30. Neither offense has been good.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: Seattle's going with George Kirby. I don't think Kirby is
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: that good, man. 4.25 ERA, 1.36 whip. That's not good.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty bad on the road. 5.53 road ERA
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: with a. 333 opponent batting average on the road. That's
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: not good, although he's pitched okay recently. His last two
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: starts were both all right. One at the A's stadium,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: and he wasn't terrible in that start, so that's at
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 3: least not too bad there. He's got a really high
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: hit rate, though. He's been very hittable, though. He doesn't
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: really walk many guys. His strikeout rate's pretty low, too, though,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: so he's pitching to contact. It's not really a good thing. 3.5
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: strikeout to walk ratio. And it's definitely not a good
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 3: thing because he is actually allowing too many guys to
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: reach base. Although his strikeout walk ratio is all right
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: because he doesn't walk many guys. 7.5 strikeout per nine.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 3: Kirby against Anaheim has not been that good either. In
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 3: 74 at-bats,. 257 average allowed, but an. 835 OPS is
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: pretty high. 26-7 strikeout walk ratio, not bad. But Kirby
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: is definitely fadable here, man. Even though you'd think Seattle
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 3: would be motivated here, maybe they're not. And Kirby has
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: not been very good this year, and he's not good
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 3: on the road, and he's not that good against Anaheim.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 3: Even though they're a weak home offense, they might be
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: able to score against Kirby here. You say Kikuchi is
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: getting the start for Anaheim. He came back from injury
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: not too long ago. He hasn't been great, obviously. 4.75 ERA, 1.49 whip.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 3: The thing about him is he's always way better at home.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: Throughout his whole career, for whatever reason, he's been way
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 3: better at home. I guess he likes pitching in front
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 3: of the home crowd. Same thing this year. Three ERA
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: at home. A lot more tolerable. His last home start
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: was pretty good against Philly and That was his only
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: home start since coming back from injury in August. He's
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 3: made three road starts otherwise. And his road starts actually
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: weren't even that bad. His last two starts, he only
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: allowed one run across 10 innings. Although his walk rate
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: was pretty bad. He walked seven guys. I'm not going
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: to give him a pass for that. But he's way
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 3: better at home, man. His last home start, he only
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: walked one in that start. So Kikuchi might actually pitch
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: well here. Even though his hit rate's too high on
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: the season, his walk rate's too high. Usually his walk
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: rate is too high. He does strike out a decent
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: amount of guys, though. 2.3 strikeout walk ratio. Strikeout per nine, 9.2,
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: not too bad, though. His numbers against the Mariners are
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: a little bit questionable. They're kind of mediocre. 97 at-bats,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: 25 strikeouts, 6 walks, 247 average, 755 OPS. I wish
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: they were a little bit better, but maybe I'm being
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 3: too selective here, but... I like Anaheim in this one again, man.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 3: The money doesn't agree. The money's coming in on Seattle.
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 3: 73% of tickets, 84% of the cash on Seattle. They're
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 3: minus 130, something minus 140. The public is definitely going
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 3: to side with Seattle because Seattle's got the better record.
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 3: Public doesn't want anything to do with Anaheim. I think
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: the public thinks, well, Seattle must win to stay alive
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 3: or whatever because they're not technically dead yet, but I
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 3: don't like it. The home road splits absolutely favor Kikuchi
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: here in this one. I think I would play Anaheim
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 3: first five if I was going to play this because
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 3: I don't like either bullpen. But yeah, I think Anaheim,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 3: you'll still get them as a bit of an underdog
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: in the first five. That's the way that I would
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 3: prefer playing this. First five, Moneyline, Anaheim would be my
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: lean in this one. The Money's also backing the over
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 3: in this game, over eight or seven and a half.
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 3: I probably don't disagree. I mean, Kirby's in the bad
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: home road, so it's Kikuchi generally isn't really that good.
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: The matchup numbers are not excellent for either pitcher. And
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 3: the bullpens are not good either. So the over does
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: make more sense. I think than the under here, uh,
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: the total is not very high though at eight. So
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 3: the odds makers kind of telling you, they don't really
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 3: think it's going to be that high scoring. And part
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 3: of that is because the, those offenses are just pretty bad.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think my preference in that game would
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 3: definitely be Anaheim in the first five there though. And
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: that leads us to the final game. Um, uh process
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 3: of deduction here i will have a play on this
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 3: one and i'm fading a couple of bullpens here we're
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 3: going to take this game over the nine but you
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 3: can find it even money i don't think there's an
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 3: eight and a half out there unfortunately although i'll look
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 3: again uh right after i do the show uh but
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 3: you can find a nine at a decent price here
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 3: so we're right on that key number you know it's
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: an odd number we have to break the uh the
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 3: tie here, but I like this one a lot better
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 3: because in this game, I think you have a more offensive, uh,
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 3: environment here than you have in the Mets game. This
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 3: one's on ESPN unlimited, but Arizona is a more hitter
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: friendly park. Miami has been a decent offense this year.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 3: Arizona has been at least better ish in the second
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 3: half offensively. Um, And we have two bullpens that are
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: worse than the two bullpens in the Baltimore Mets game.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 3: These two bullpens are not very trustworthy in my opinion.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: And they both got used a lot because they were
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 3: both in an 11 inning game yesterday. Look at Miami's
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: usage yesterday. They used seven guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm going to fade that bullpen and I'm
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: going to fade Arizona's. They used five out of theirs yesterday.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: So these are some taxed bullpens here. Arizona's number five
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 3: in bullpen. They got a decent ERA here, but I'm
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 3: still willing to fade these used bullpens here. I know
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 3: Miami's number nine, but their ERA is above four. So honestly,
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 3: I think these bullpens are actually worse than baltimore baltimore
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: and the mets are kind of ranked similarly but i
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: think these two bullpens are a little bit worse than
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 3: those and the offenses in this game are better than
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: those offenses arizona's 20th which i know isn't that good
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: but i think they're better than that i know i
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 3: think miami's not as good as their eighth ranking offensively
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: but not bad at least and i don't think these
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: pitchers are good at all uh ryan gusto is pitching
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 3: for miami 4.14 era but his whip is indicative that
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 3: his era should be higher than that 1.4 yeah that's
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: not a good whip man he's got a 4.45 road
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 3: era as well so he pitches better in miami in
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: the pitcher friendly park he's not as good on the
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: road Did pitch well last time out against the Dodgers,
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: but he wasn't very good in the start before that
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: against the Cubs, and he'd gone a couple of starts
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 3: without getting to the five-inning mark, and in fact, he's
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: only gotten to the five-inning mark a couple of times recently.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 3: His team has lost his last three games, although we're
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 3: not picking a side here. We're taking the over, but
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: he's walking too many guys recently as well, multiple walks
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: in all of his recent starts. He's got a high
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: hit rate on the season. His walk rate is just okay-ish.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate is low. 2.6 strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 3: very mediocre. 7.5 strikeout per night, also very mediocre. And
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: against Arizona, he's not that bad at 15 at-bats, 267 average,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: 620 OPS. So I do get the matchup, but it's
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 3: still Bassett, like looking at the over in that other
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: game I was talking about, Bassett shreds the match. So
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 3: Gusto is not at that level against the D-backs. This
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 3: is only 15 at-bats, although they have no extra base
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 3: hits against him. Four strikeouts, two walks, but I still
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: think Arizona can do more damage than that would suggest
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: against Gusto. And then Merrill Kelly on the other side,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: he's been bad this season. Maybe he's gotten a little
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: bit better recently, but this has been his worst season
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: of his career easily. 4.97 ERA, 1.46 whip. He's been
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: pretty bad at home. 5.83 home ERA. So both pitchers
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 3: are in their bad home road split here. Kelly didn't
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 3: make it five innings in his last outing. He was
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: pretty good in the start before that. The two starts
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: prior to that, he was actually pretty good against San
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 3: Francisco and Houston. Both on the road, though. And San
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: Francisco's not a good offense, especially in their ballpark. Prior
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 3: to that, Kelly had a few bad starts in a row.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: He was not in good form. I'm not considering him
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: to be in exactly excellent form right now. He walked
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 3: three guys in his last game and didn't make it
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: five innings against Texas. He's got a high hit rate
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 3: on the season. His walk rate's too high. He's allowing
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 3: a lot of home runs. He's not striking guys out.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: These numbers are not good. 1.5 strikeout walk ratio is
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 3: very bad. Six strikeout per nine is also really bad.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 3: Some of the worst numbers he's ever had. And Miami
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 3: hits him well. 60 at bats, 300 average, 800 OPS,
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 3: 15 to three strikeout walk ratio. So the ratio is good,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: but the rest of those numbers, pretty bad. So this
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 3: is my other play. We're going to focus on some
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: used bullpens today. I do worry that the under looks, well,
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 3: the under looks really public here, but I do worry
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 3: that the under looks like it's actually getting the money
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 3: here as well. 94% of tickets and public on the under. uh,
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: 94% of tickets and cash. I mean, in the under,
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 3: but you know, the public does not play. They're not,
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 3: the public's not coming in and going, Oh yeah, give
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: me an under in Miami, Arizona. You know what I mean?
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: I don't think the public is doing that. So it
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 3: does concern me a little bit, but I do think
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: this game goes over the total. Um, you might actually
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: be able to find an eight and a half somewhere.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: I'll have to look, but no, it looks like it's
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 3: mostly nines just across the board here, but that's what
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: we're going to do here. Um, The money's also backing Arizona.
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, Arizona has way more to play for here. Miami,
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: they're still alive, but I don't know how much that matters.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 3: Arizona's in a heated wild card race against San Diego,
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: so they've got to keep winning. And I believe Miami
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: won yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, so each team
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: has won one game in the series so far. So Arizona,
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: they've got to win here, man. They've got to keep
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: pace with San Diego here. And they know San Diego's
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: playing Colorado, so Arizona's got to keep winning. 85% of tickets, 93%,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 3: because San Diego should win those games. I'm not sure
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 3: they will today, though. 85% of tickets, 93% of the
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: cash on Arizona. They're in the minus 130-something range here.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know, man. I don't know. I actually think
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 3: I would lean Miami in this one. Maybe just in
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 3: the first five because I don't want to deal with
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: either bullpen, but I think Gusto. Actually, Gusto has the
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 3: better matchup numbers. I think Miami actually might be the
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 3: slight lean in that one, but I like the over.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: That's the play. That's going to do it, man. The
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 3: two plays today are the Milwaukee Moneyline and the over
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 3: in Miami, Arizona. Those are the two plays in baseball today.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 3: If I was going to add a third play, it
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: would be the over in Baltimore and the Mets. taking
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 3: advantage of some used bullpens here man which is um
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 3: that's an underrated thing like i used to do it
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 3: more than i do now probably but i used to
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: find places to take advantage of used up bullpens because
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: i think the bullpens don't get factored into the line
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 3: maybe as much as they should and the starting pitching
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 3: might get a little bit fact like over factored into
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 3: the line you know what i mean like the the
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 3: lines might overrate the starting pitching a little bit um
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 3: Or overrate its impact, you know, although it certainly has
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 3: a big impact. But that's just kind of the way
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 3: that people's minds work is, oh, yeah, this starter versus
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 3: this starter.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 3: But the bullpen tend to get a little bit overlooked.
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: So I think that's somewhat what we're doing here today.
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. Learn to Tone on Twitter.
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 3: Learn to Tone on Instagram. Let's keep this hot streak going, man.
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 3: Hopefully we can. Football will resume tomorrow. I don't know
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 3: if I have a play in the NFL game. I
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 3: do have an opinion on it. Don't know if it's
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: good enough to make the cut for me, though. Probably
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 3: it won't be. And there is one college game tomorrow,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 3: which I haven't really looked into yet, so I have
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 3: no idea if I have an opinion on it or not.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 3: It might be likely I'm not going to have a
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 3: football play tomorrow, even though I'm Mr. Thursday Night. I
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: don't give out plays on every Thursday game, of course.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 3: I think I went 3-0 with my selective Thursday plays
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 3: last year, even though I was right about almost all
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: of them against the spread. But we're already 1-0 on
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 3: Thursday night this year, though, but it was not an
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 3: official Amazon Prime Thursday night game. It was a Netflix
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 3: Australia game. Anyway, learn to tone on Twitter. Learn to
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 3: tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe to the channel here. Leave
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 3: good comments. Tell people about it, all that hype. hype
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 3: it up, et cetera. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 3: The audio numbers are going up. Keep it going, man. Uh,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 3: covered in you cause my ukulele channel on YouTube. So
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: you can check that out. Uh, patreon.com slash learn to tote.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: If you want to throw me some support that way,
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 3: I did update the, uh, uke feed on there and
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 3: on the YouTube as well. Loser cast every Tuesday night.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 3: We had a new episode last night with the, what
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 3: is that podcast? The two guys that we had on,
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 3: I liked it, man. It was a fun show last night.
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 3: It was, um, I don't remember the name of their podcast.
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 3: Something about morning or waking up. When you wake up,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: if you wake up, I forget. I wish I remembered
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 3: the name of it. You can go watch Losercast and
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 3: you'll figure it out, I think, during the plug segment. Yeah,
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 3: that was fun, though. Maybe too many people at once,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 3: but go check that out. And then the New York
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 3: Giants G-Spot podcast. Who knows? But yeah, my link tree's
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: got everything in it. That's going to do it. I
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 3: appreciate it, except for that crypto spam account that keeps
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: coming in here. That's it. Peace.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: If the doc starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 3: Let somebody answer.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: Let somebody know you do not have.
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone.
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: Oh, Hold on, not tonight, not now.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 4: On Let me pull you out That bad luck bites
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 4: hard But it don't get.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 2: The crown Hold on, hold.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: On Stay with me now.
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold.
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: On You're still here now guitar solo Thank you.