Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / The Opening Look | Thursday, October 29th 2026

Transcript

The Opening Look | Thursday, October 29th 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Hello, world, and welcome to the opening look.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Mike Miner.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today is Thursday, October 29th.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: We are tracking a softer tone across the agricultural complex this morning as harvest pressure, global supply dynamics, and a quiet micro uh mic macroeconomic calendar uh keeps buyers on the defensive this morning here.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: So let's dive into the numbers on the grain complex.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start there.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: A little bit of a weaker overnight session here.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: On the soybeans specifically, we're down eight cents on the overnight going into the morning session.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Uh trade is quickly monitoring this South American weather.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: We've had some recent rains that have improved some planning conditions in Brazil, and that's taking some of the weather premium out of this market.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, on the wheat side, it's showing some relative resilience, which is uh the first for a while here in this wheat market.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um it's still trading in the negative territory, but on Chicago wheat, for example, getting around this$6 range, it's kind of held up here for the time being.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: So it continues to be a little bit softer there, but we are watching some key winter wheat areas in the U.S.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: plains uh just at this time of the year here in late fall.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: Let's look over to the livestock market.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, it's been a rough couple days for the livestock, uh, specifically on December lean hogs here.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: We're under$60 on the December contract.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: We closed at$58.60 yesterday.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: This was a drop of uh$342, reflecting mainly a seasonal increase in hog slaughter numbers, heavier carcass weights, uh, which are temporarily outpacing domestic demand, which isn't anything new.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: We've been uh really on a downward uh channel here on this hog market for quite some time.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: And yesterday was a really rough day for this hog market.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh really uh really blew that one apart in these front couple months.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Ironically, that back month, though, if you look at next summer on, actually had some strength up about a buck and a half yesterday.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Something to keep an eye on for spreads going forward.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: In the beef complex, live cattle faced a little pressure there as well.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: We've had a really nice uptrend there recently.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we closed down 262 on the October fat cattle yesterday.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Keep an eye on any positions in that as expiration's coming up.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, does yeah, uh, you know, when we look historically, we've got pretty tight cattle supplies yet, but packers seem to have managed this pullback in the cash market a little bit softer.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh tone in the beef prices here this week, and and that's helped the futures board pull back just a smidge, uh, really just a technical action going on for most of these grain and cattle and uh lean hog markets here over the past trading session or so.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: On the macroeconomic look and energies, a little bit weaker energy market this morning, which could be pulling into the grain complex as well.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's something to keep an eye on here as uh maybe we're trading that energy market back in these grains uh yet again here.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Uh just something to keep an eye on there.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: And on the macroeconomic front, we had an FOMC meeting yesterday.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: The Fed came out, left rates unchanged.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: We have a 90% chance of raising rates 25 basis points in this next uh December meeting.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: So keep an eye on that going forward.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: But for the time being, the US dollar here in the overnight relatively firm.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that continues to be a minor headwind for any export products in the U.S.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: uh going forward on the global stage, especially when you've got things like the Brazilian Real weakening up a lot in the last week or so.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, that is your morning uh snapshot.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: And as we move through the trading session here, please keep an eye on some weekly uh export sales here and any cash cattle trade going at the end of the week.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: My name is Mike Minor.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: Please have a safe harvest day, and we'll catch you next time.