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Jesus Prophecy and Mathematics · Gil I Am

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to this explainer. Today, we're going to explore some
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  Speaker 1: truly mind bending mathematical probabilities. We're looking at the fascinating
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  Speaker 1: work of astronomy and math professor Peter W. Stoner, who
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  Speaker 1: literally set out to calculate the statistical likelihood of a
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  Speaker 1: single individual fulfilling a specific set of biblical prophecies. So,
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  Speaker 1: whether you're a math enthusiast, a history buff or just
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  Speaker 1: wildly curious about how statistics can be applied to ancient techts,
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  Speaker 1: you're definitely in the right place. This is a captivating
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  Speaker 1: dive into how one man tried to quantify the unquantifiable. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: here's our roadmap for today. We're going to cover the
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  Speaker 1: math of prophecy, the eight core prophecies, the Texas Silver
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  Speaker 1: Dollar scaling to forty eight, and finally will wrap up
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  Speaker 1: with the mathematical qualifications. Let's jump right in section one,
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  Speaker 1: the math of prophecy. We'll start with the very foundation
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  Speaker 1: of Stoner's calculations, which he famously presented in his widely
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  Speaker 1: read book Science Speaks. Now, what's really interesting here is
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  Speaker 1: his data collection method. Peter Stoner didn't just lock himself
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  Speaker 1: in a dark room and crunch these numbers alone. Instead,
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  Speaker 1: he developed these probability estimates through extensive discussions involving over
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  Speaker 1: six hundred college students spread across about twelve different classes. Together,
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  Speaker 1: they focused on assigning odds to Old Testament prophecies, specifically
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  Speaker 1: things concerning the Messiah's birthplace, ministry, betrayal, trial, and crucifixion.
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  Speaker 1: To make sure his numbers actually held up to scrutiny,
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  Speaker 1: Stoner instructed his classes to be rigorously cautious. He told
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  Speaker 1: them flat out to choose deliberately conservative estimates. In fact,
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  Speaker 1: in several cases, his students initially proposed incredibly small probabilities
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  Speaker 1: for an event occurring just by chance, but Stoner stepped
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  Speaker 1: in and actively reduced those odds to ensure the final
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  Speaker 1: mathematical argument remained as absolutely conservative as possible. Section two,
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  Speaker 1: The eight Core prophecies. Let's see how this all builds
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  Speaker 1: into his best known analysis, which was centered tightly around
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  Speaker 1: eight specific Old Testament predictions. You can really see the
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  Speaker 1: variety of the other events his classes examined. For instance,
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  Speaker 1: for a messenger entering Jerusalem as king while riding a donkey,
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  Speaker 1: they assigned a one in one hundred probability for being
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  Speaker 1: betrayed for exactly thirty pieces of silver, they estimated one
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  Speaker 1: in one thousand. For having hands and feet pierced one
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  Speaker 1: in ten thousand, and for the very specific geographical prediction
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  Speaker 1: of being born in Bethlehem, they landed on a one
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  Speaker 1: in two hundred eighty thousand chants. Stoner's methodology was highly structured.
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  Speaker 1: He systematically mapped these Old Testament predictions directly to their
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  Speaker 1: reported New Testament fulfillments to establish the data points for
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  Speaker 1: his model. It's kind of like matching up a giant puzzle.
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  Speaker 1: He connected the prophecy of being born in Bethlehem from
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  Speaker 1: Micah chapter five directly to the accounts in Matthew and Luke,
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  Speaker 1: creating a one to one bridge between the ancient text
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  Speaker 1: and the reported fulfillment.
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  Speaker 2: Section three the Texas Silver Dollar. So the absolute crucial
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  Speaker 2: point is what happens when you mathematically compound these individual
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  Speaker 2: odds together. If you recall your basic statistics class to
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  Speaker 2: find the probability of multiple independent events happening at the
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  Speaker 2: exact same time, you multiply their individual probabilities together. While
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  Speaker 2: multiplying his eight individual conservative estimates produced this incredibly massive figure.
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  Speaker 2: One chance in two point eight times ten to the
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  Speaker 2: twenty eighth power for one randomly selected person fulfilling all
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  Speaker 2: eight conditions.
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  Speaker 1: But Stoner knew that just leaving the number like that
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  Speaker 1: didn't really tell the whole story, right. He needed to
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  Speaker 1: account for the total human population to contextualize this properly.
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  Speaker 1: Stoner estimated the historical population of humans who had lived
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  Speaker 1: since the prophecies were written at roughly one hundred billion people.
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  Speaker 1: He then mathematically applied this population variable to his already
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  Speaker 1: massive number. Let this shear scale of those zeros sink
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  Speaker 1: in for a second. The final result is a staggering
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  Speaker 1: one in ten to the seventeenth power probability that any
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  Speaker 1: person in history could accidentally fulfill all eight of those
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  Speaker 1: specific prophecies. Now, to help if our human brains actually
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  Speaker 1: comprehend this sheer scale, because let's face it, we are
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  Speaker 1: notoriously bad at visualizing numbers this large, Stoner offered a
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  Speaker 1: really visceral physical analogy. Picture this. You cover the entire
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  Speaker 1: state of Texas approximately two feet deep with silver dollars.
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  Speaker 1: You take one single silver dollar market and mix it
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  Speaker 1: thoroughly into that massive pile. Then you blindfold a person,
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  Speaker 1: let them travel anywhere they want in the state and
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  Speaker 1: tell them to reach down and pick up just one coin.
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  Speaker 1: The odds of them picking up that exact marked coin
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  Speaker 1: on their very first try, that is your one in
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  Speaker 1: ten to the seventeenth power section four, scaling to forty eight.
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  Speaker 1: Let's explore what happens when Stoner extrapolated this calculation way
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  Speaker 1: way beyond those initial eight prophecies. Stoner didn't just stop
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  Speaker 1: at eight, but he didn't individually calculate the next batch either. Instead,
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  Speaker 1: he simply assumed eight additional prophecies with comparable probabilities and
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  Speaker 1: added them to his model. This extrapolation pushed the number
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  Speaker 1: to an utterly incomprehensible one in ten to the forty
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  Speaker 1: fifth power for sixteen prophecies, and when extending the mathematical
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  Speaker 1: argument even further to forty eight prophecies, the result completely explodes.
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  Speaker 1: We get one chance in a number containing one hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifty seven zeros, a number so unbelievably large it
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  Speaker 1: effectively defies natural human comprehension. Since the Texas silver dollar
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  Speaker 1: analogy was suddenly far too small to represent this new number,
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  Speaker 1: Stoner created a whole new analogy to illustrate this peak.
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  Speaker 1: Mathematical scale. He asked his readers to imagine an astronomical
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  Speaker 1: sphere of electrons, a mass practically beyond human visualization, marking
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  Speaker 1: just one electron, mixing it in, and asking a blindfolded
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  Speaker 1: person to blindly select that single marked electron on their
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  Speaker 1: first try. Section five the mathematical qualifications. Now, to truly
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  Speaker 1: unpack this explainer, we have to ground ourselves. We need
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  Speaker 1: to look impartially at the mathematical scaffolding that's holding these
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  Speaker 1: astronomical numbers up. While the sheer arithmetic of multiplication is straightforward,
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  Speaker 1: it completely relies on the assumptions made at the very beginning.
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  Speaker 1: The initial estimates were subjective judgments generated by college students
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  Speaker 1: in a classroom setting, rather than objective probabilities measured from
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  Speaker 1: some comprehensive, peer reviewed historical database, and crucially, multiplying probabilities
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  Speaker 1: in this way mathematically requires that the events be strictly
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  Speaker 1: independent of one another, which brings us to a vital
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  Speaker 1: mathematical caveat. According to the National Institute of Standards and
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  Speaker 1: Technologies strict definition of independent events, their joint probability equals
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  Speaker 1: the product of their individual probabilities only when true independence supplies.
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  Speaker 1: If one event naturally influences another. You can no longer
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  Speaker 1: simply multiply those odds together, and this is exactly where
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  Speaker 1: critics of Stoner's math point their fingers. They note that
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  Speaker 1: several of these events are just way too closely connected
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  Speaker 1: to be multiplied as truly independent probabilities. Think about it,
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  Speaker 1: If someone is betrayed for exactly thirty pieces of silver,
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  Speaker 1: the subsequent event of that specific silver being thrown into
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  Speaker 1: the lord's house or connected to a potter's field might
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  Speaker 1: not be a totally random independent one in one hundred
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  Speaker 1: thousand chance. The two events are likely causally linked, which
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  Speaker 1: fundamentally changes the math. This isn't just a critique from
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  Speaker 1: skeptics either. Even the editor of the online edition of
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  Speaker 1: the book, who happens to be Peter Stoner's own grandson,
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  Speaker 1: Don Stoner, transparently warns readers about this. He explicitly acknowledges
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  Speaker 1: that modern users absolutely must address these objections, pointing out
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  Speaker 1: that interpretive complexity deeply affects the probability terms being used
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  Speaker 1: in the equations. Therefore, the most historically and mathematically accurate
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  Speaker 1: way to frame these enormous mind bending numbers is as
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  Speaker 1: a carefully constructed, subjective, apologetic estimate. It is a fascinating
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  Speaker 1: exercise in statistics and probability, for sure, but it shouldn't
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  Speaker 1: be viewed as a universally accepted or experimentally established scientific measurement,
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  Speaker 1: and that leaves us with a fascinating final thought to
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  Speaker 1: wrap up today, how should we balance the awe inspiring
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  Speaker 1: scale of Stoner's statistical analogies like that giant sea of
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  Speaker 1: Texas silver dollars, with the knowledge of the subjective human
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  Speaker 1: judgments that formed their very foundation. It's a striking reminder
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  Speaker 1: of how data and interpretation always go hand in hand,
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  Speaker 1: and how even the most precise looking numbers are shaped
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  Speaker 1: by the assumptions we make before we even start counting.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining me to explore this
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  Speaker 1: incredible topic today