Latest / The Crest Report / Drones Took Out the Backup Pipeline, Truckers Are Getting Crushed, and Gold Is on Sale

Transcript

Drones Took Out the Backup Pipeline, Truckers Are Getting Crushed, and Gold Is on Sale · The Crest Report

0:12
SPEAKER_01: From Golden Crest Metals, this is the Crest Report, where markets meet reality.
0:17
SPEAKER_01: Your weekly briefing on the economy, gold, silver, and protecting what you've built.
0:22
SPEAKER_01: And now, here's your host, Jeremy Harrell.
0:27
SPEAKER_00: Well, hello everybody, and welcome back to another episode of the Crest Report.
0:33
SPEAKER_00: So glad that you guys are here with me today.
0:36
SPEAKER_00: Boy, do I love Saturdays.
0:39
SPEAKER_00: I love doing the Crest Report.
0:41
SPEAKER_00: I love diving deep into where gold and silver is, where people are looking at diversifying and why they are looking at precious metals such as gold and silver.
0:54
SPEAKER_00: So my name is Jeremy Harrell.
0:55
SPEAKER_00: Again, this is the Crest Report.
0:57
SPEAKER_00: Happy Saturday.
0:59
SPEAKER_00: And if anybody out there is wanting to call in at any time during this show, here's the number.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: I want you to call 888-991-6222.
1:11
SPEAKER_00: Now I'm gonna be repeating that number and all of the other ways that you can get a hold of us here today at Golden Crest Medals.
1:19
SPEAKER_00: Because one thing that I've noticed is that when we're doing the show on Saturdays, we have seen a major uptick in calls live during the show and immediately right after.
1:30
SPEAKER_00: It seems like everybody is just waiting for that next piece of news.
1:34
SPEAKER_00: And anytime that there's some good news, or even maybe sometimes even when there's not so good news in the world, but it means good news for gold and silver, uh, we're getting a lot of interest in the show.
1:45
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1:48
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1:53
SPEAKER_00: Again, that number is 888-991-6222.
1:58
SPEAKER_00: You can also go to myfregoldinfo.com.
2:02
SPEAKER_00: One more time, that's myfreegoldinfo.com.
2:06
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2:13
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2:22
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2:25
SPEAKER_00: And uh, you know, we we consider everybody here a family, and uh the information that we give every week is absolutely free of charge.
2:34
SPEAKER_00: But if you want to further that conversation, obviously, there's going to be someone here for you.
2:38
SPEAKER_00: When you call in, you can also text the word report, you know, like your report cards, uh, to the word medals, M-E-T-A-L-S.
2:47
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2:49
SPEAKER_00: Text the word report to metals or 638-257.
2:54
SPEAKER_00: Okay?
2:55
SPEAKER_00: All right, guys, we've got a lot of news to get through today.
2:59
SPEAKER_00: So we're just gonna dive right into it.
3:01
SPEAKER_00: I do want to kind of give you an overview, a 5,000-foot overview of what we're gonna be covering today, segment by segment.
3:09
SPEAKER_00: In the first segment of today's show, we're gonna be talking about the whopping, whopping price of oil right now.
3:19
SPEAKER_00: The Iran-backed drones that only cost a couple thousand dollars a piece took out Saudi Arabia's backup oil pipeline.
3:28
SPEAKER_00: And even though Saudi Arabia said, hey, we'll have it up and running in a couple weeks, that still is not good news.
3:35
SPEAKER_00: And that's why you're seeing a big, big increase in the price of a barrel of oil, and again, at the pump.
3:43
SPEAKER_00: But the biggest, I think the biggest thing to really focus on here is the diesel price.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: I mean, we've seen higher gas prices than what we see right now or in the last few years, but it's the diesel price, the all-time high, record all-time high diesel price.
4:00
SPEAKER_00: And the biggest issue that we're seeing right now with that is truckers being priced out.
4:08
SPEAKER_00: A lot of truckers are saying, hey, we can't do this.
4:11
SPEAKER_00: I'm seeing a lot of videos where the the truck drivers are showing you how much money it is to fill their tank.
4:20
SPEAKER_00: And it's upwards of a thousand dollars for one tank.
4:25
SPEAKER_00: How are you supposed to see any profits on that?
4:28
SPEAKER_00: Especially if you're a nationwide trucker, if you're going from sea to shining sea, and the backbone of our economy is our trucking industry.
4:38
SPEAKER_00: So that's a big one.
4:40
SPEAKER_00: That's that's the real big one.
4:42
SPEAKER_00: That's gonna that's gonna be uh our first segment as we really dive into today's show.
4:46
SPEAKER_00: Second segment is gonna be talking about CPI, inflation, the word that we might be getting some rate increases is what people are saying.
4:57
SPEAKER_00: But boy, would that I I I don't think that would be a um I don't think that'd be a smart move right now because as we as we know, when the Fed hikes up that rate, it's to cool down an economy.
5:09
SPEAKER_00: Well, I don't think we'd want to cool down our economy right now, especially when we're seeing the high gas and diesel prices.
5:16
SPEAKER_00: I think we, you know, the president has really put a lot of investment and gotten a lot of investment into our physical economy, which means our jobs and manufacturing.
5:26
SPEAKER_00: That's all starting to come back.
5:28
SPEAKER_00: There's so many companies, including Eli Lilly and Ford and Hyundai, Hyundai, um the Nvidia, Google, Apple, Amazon.
5:38
SPEAKER_00: Uh the list goes on and on and on of the companies that have put in put so much money into building plants or uh or upgrading existing plants and adding jobs.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: As a matter of fact, we just found out this last week that Ford announced a$1 billion upgrade project in, I believe it was, I think it was South Carolina or Kentucky.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: I can't remember exactly which state it was.
6:07
SPEAKER_00: I want to say it was South Carolina, and I apologize, but they just announced that you can look that up, another billion dollars here in America, not in Canada, where they were talking about doing it.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: Definitely not in Mexico.
6:18
SPEAKER_00: So I mean, I think that that people need to understand that the physical economy is really on the rise.
6:24
SPEAKER_00: It's just, you know, we really got to make sure that we don't stifle this economy in any way.
6:29
SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna be talking about that, where Kevin Warsh is, where the Fed is.
6:33
SPEAKER_00: Uh, in segment number three, workers' share of income just hit a record low.
6:40
SPEAKER_00: And the AI bubble is getting louder.
6:43
SPEAKER_00: Now, this is from Ken Griffin, who says a recession is pretty much unavoidable at this point.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: Now, I don't know if I agree with that, I don't know if you agree with that or not, but we're gonna get to the information of these people who are, let's say, experts in this field.
7:01
SPEAKER_00: Segment number four, gold, sitting at about in between 4325 and 4360.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: That is the lowest open in weeks.
7:13
SPEAKER_00: But guess what?
7:14
SPEAKER_00: It's not stopping physical buyers, it's not stopping them in the least.
7:20
SPEAKER_00: And the long case is still stronger than ever.
7:24
SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, the segment right following that is gonna be getting into silver.
7:27
SPEAKER_00: We always go right from gold, right into silver.
7:29
SPEAKER_00: Now, silver's holding it a strong 65, but pulled back with gold.
7:34
SPEAKER_00: It's that Saudi pipeline attack that is the silver catalyst.
7:40
SPEAKER_00: So, in that opening segment today, that we're gonna go back to it when we're talking about silver a little later in the show.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, the last segment of the day, we're gonna uh dive into the backup plan.
7:54
SPEAKER_00: The backup plan.
7:55
SPEAKER_00: Oil is near$110, the 10-year hit is 5%, and gold is on sale.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: So that's how we're gonna start and wrap up the show today.
8:05
SPEAKER_00: So thank you again for being here.
8:06
SPEAKER_00: Again, Goldencrest Metals at myfregoldinfo.com.
8:12
SPEAKER_00: That's myfreegoldinfo.com 888-991-6222, or texting the word report to metals, M-E-T-A-L-S, or that is report to 638-257 at any time, okay?
8:28
SPEAKER_00: We've got a team of people waiting, standing by.
8:32
SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't say they're waiting, they're probably talking to other people right now, considering how many people are reaching out because of the gold and silver um sale price, and still remaining stronger than ever.
8:44
SPEAKER_00: It's crazy when you really look at the the overview of how gold and silver have responded to everything that's going on this year, and how the increase from year over year is dominating, making the increase in the stock market look like it's dwarfing it.
9:04
SPEAKER_00: It is amazing what gold and silver has been able to do and withstand the heights of which it's gone, so we know it's possible, and withstand during what's going on in the world.
9:16
SPEAKER_00: So uh let's lift up our coffee cups and let's get some energy because we are about ready to take off.
9:22
SPEAKER_00: Are you ready?
9:23
SPEAKER_00: The Crest Report really starts now.
9:28
SPEAKER_00: Iran, oil, energy, pipelines, drones.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: We're gonna be pulling all of this information from CNBC, NBC News, ABC News, and obviously reports that I have been reporting on all week on my news show.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: So here's what happened for all those who might not follow what's going on from a day-to-day perspective.
9:56
SPEAKER_00: Iran-backed militias in Iraq attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: And they did that on September 11th.
10:09
SPEAKER_00: The same date as the CPI report.
10:13
SPEAKER_00: The pipeline was Saudi Arabia's primary backup route for exporting oil without going for the straight through the Strait of Hormuz.
10:23
SPEAKER_00: Now, if you listen to last week's Crest report, we were talking about if you combined the pipeline with what was actually going through the strait on these big massive ships, the combined total matched and even exceeded on some and on in you know, on some weeks, even exceeded what was being taken out pre-conflict.
10:50
SPEAKER_00: So it was doing really well, and then boom, a few drones that only cost a few thousand dollars apiece hit that pipeline.
11:01
SPEAKER_00: So Saudi Arabia had to shut down immediately.
11:06
SPEAKER_00: Now, they did say we can get this back up and running in a couple weeks, but the issue is what's to stop this from happening again?
11:13
SPEAKER_00: Because at this point, you've got you've got all of these Iranian-backed terrorist groups that are spread out all through the Middle East.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: This has always been the problem with war or conflict with the Middle East.
11:28
SPEAKER_00: It's not like having a you know war with Russia or a war with North Korea, which is you know confined to a geographical region for the most part.
11:40
SPEAKER_00: These terrorists are spread out everywhere, and they're all working with and have worked with Iran.
11:47
SPEAKER_00: Because that's why they call Iran the largest uh uh state sponsor of terror.
11:53
SPEAKER_00: Because that country is just, as far as the people who are running it anyway, it's just one big terrorist network.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: And they've got you know headquarters in the mountains, they've got tunnels, they've got miles, tens of thousands of miles uh in places that you know you can only see with the best equipment.
12:11
SPEAKER_00: So it is um it's not surprising, I should say, to hear that news.
12:17
SPEAKER_00: Now here's why it matters because the East-West pipeline carried up to seven million barrels a day.
12:24
SPEAKER_00: Like I said, this isn't just some trickle-trickle pipeline that represented 30 to 40 percent of the crude flows out of the Gulf.
12:36
SPEAKER_00: It was the safety net.
12:40
SPEAKER_00: When the Strait of Hormuz got blocked, the world could rely on this pipeline.
12:45
SPEAKER_00: Iran just took away that safety net.
12:49
SPEAKER_00: So the oil market reaction, Brent crude, surged to$109 a barrel before retreating to$105.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: The WTI hit nearly$105 a barrel before settling near$101.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: Now, analysts say that oil is unlikely to fall below$100 anytime soon.
13:12
SPEAKER_00: And if it does, it'll be a fluctuating reduction, you know,$98,$97, back up to$100.
13:20
SPEAKER_00: So the market is really out of safety valves.
13:24
SPEAKER_00: Kipl estimated losing 120 million barrels in exports over a month if the pipeline stays shut.
13:32
SPEAKER_00: Now, the one thing that people need to really understand is how much oil the United States is exporting to try to fill that gap and how much of an increase we continue to get from Venezuela.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: The problem with all of this oil, I wouldn't say the problem, I think the the fact that everybody should understand is that there's light crude, there's heavy crude, there's thick oil, there's thin, there's thinner oil.
13:57
SPEAKER_00: It's there's just different kinds of oil that different refineries are built to refine.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: Here in America, we might need a different oil than in the UK.
14:11
SPEAKER_00: It depends on the refineries that are that are putting this from the the ground into your car.
14:18
SPEAKER_00: So it's not just as easy as saying, hey, oil is oil.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: It's not.
14:23
SPEAKER_00: And we have a refinery shortage in the world.
14:26
SPEAKER_00: We have a big refinery shortage here in the United States of America because environmentalists have shut down six refineries in this country in the last 10 to 15 years.
14:42
SPEAKER_00: Six refineries because of environmentalists.
14:45
SPEAKER_00: And every time somebody tries to build a new one, or every time somebody tries to upgrade an old one, which by the way, billions of dollars of investment.
14:55
SPEAKER_00: And a lot of these billionaire investors are starting to invest more in EV than they are oil.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: Because look what it takes to get from one to another.
15:05
SPEAKER_00: And I'm not an advocate for EV or anything like that, but look how much easier it is.
15:10
SPEAKER_00: Look at the stuff you don't have to deal with.
15:12
SPEAKER_00: I mean, those people out there that have EVs right now, they're filling up their batteries in their cars at home from between$14 and$18.
15:20
SPEAKER_00: And they're going in between 300 and 400 miles.
15:24
SPEAKER_00: So when it comes to gas, they could care less, but it still affects them at the at the grocery store because prices go up.
15:31
SPEAKER_00: It still affects their heating oil, depending on where they live.
15:35
SPEAKER_00: So they get a little bit of a you know relief because they're driving an electric vehicle.
15:39
SPEAKER_00: But this but the fact of the matter is, folks, is that it doesn't matter whether you like them, I like them, or you advocate for them, or I do.
15:47
SPEAKER_00: The billionaires are putting their money in something they know is going to have a lot less headache.
15:53
SPEAKER_00: And when they put money into a refinery, here comes the environmentalists, mostly um, you know, left-wing environmentalist non-government organizations or you know, nonprofits trying to stop any kind of upgrade or building of a refinery because it quote destroys the environment.
16:19
SPEAKER_00: So every single time somebody tries to do something, it's caught up in litigation.
16:23
SPEAKER_00: For five to ten years, you're caught up in litigation.
16:28
SPEAKER_00: And these NGOs are they're just raising money based on the fear, and they have an endless supply.
16:35
SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, these billionaires who would be putting this money into these refineries, which we need, if we had more refineries, we'd be golden.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: The problem is the refineries are operating at nearly 100% with no buffer, and they're even getting record prices.
16:48
SPEAKER_00: Tim Burchett this week announced that he was uh he tried to put a bill on a floor on the floor and tried to get the uh the whole house to vote on it, uh, which would hold these oil, gas, and refinery executives accountable.
17:02
SPEAKER_00: He laid out the dollar amount that they were getting, and not only because they're doing more, they're getting more for what they're doing by a lot, like 15 times what they normally would charge.
17:13
SPEAKER_00: This is price gouging.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: This is why your gas and diesel looks the way it is.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: Not because of the shortage per se, but because of the taking advantage of.
17:23
SPEAKER_00: That's exactly what's happening, folks.
17:26
SPEAKER_00: And it's really a sad sight to see because um there's supposed to be laws against this, which means that the Department of Justice or the FBI need to start investigating and actually get something done here because this is becoming ridiculous, and too many people are pointing their fingers in the wrong direction.
17:44
SPEAKER_00: But really, in the end, it doesn't matter where you're pointing your finger.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: What matters is what you're paying at the pump, what you're paying in the grocery store.
17:51
SPEAKER_00: I get it, I'm right there with you.
17:55
SPEAKER_00: So let's go down to the 10-year treasury.
17:57
SPEAKER_00: The 10-year treasury topped 5% for the first time since 2023.
18:02
SPEAKER_00: The 10-year U.S.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: Treasury yield crossed 5%.
18:06
SPEAKER_00: The energy, the shock, the energy shock of that is feeding directly into inflation fears, which are feeding into bond yields.
18:15
SPEAKER_00: And at 5%, the cost of servicing the$40 trillion national debt gets more expensive in real time.
18:23
SPEAKER_00: That is why the talk of the rate hikes, okay?
18:28
SPEAKER_00: Even though rate hikes usually cool an economy, in this um sense you would see one to try to get a handle on what they might, what they're seeing might come in inflation.
18:40
SPEAKER_00: So let's get back to the diesel.
18:42
SPEAKER_00: The national average of diesel hit a record high this week.
18:47
SPEAKER_00: Diesel is not just for trucks, by the way.
18:49
SPEAKER_00: Remember that.
18:51
SPEAKER_00: It powers every delivery vehicle, every farm machine, every freight shipment in the country.
18:58
SPEAKER_00: When diesel hits a record, everything you buy eventually costs more.
19:04
SPEAKER_00: And I gotta tell you, living, I and I live in the state of Iowa, so let me tell you, understanding the the implications on the farmers and what they're gonna have to end up coughing up, they're gonna have to charge more.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: Or they don't stay in business.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: That's the way it goes.
19:22
SPEAKER_00: A diplomatic meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states to discuss the Hormuz situation is scheduled for next week.
19:34
SPEAKER_00: Alright, no, it was scheduled for Monday.
19:36
SPEAKER_00: They look to schedule it for next week because it was abruptly postponed after that pipeline attack.
19:41
SPEAKER_00: Let's hope they have it next week.
19:44
SPEAKER_00: But that's up in limbo now.
19:46
SPEAKER_00: The one remaining diplomatic channel just went dark, and there is no active negotiation happening as of this recording.
19:53
SPEAKER_00: There has been talks that that meeting will be postponed until next week, but you know, who's to say?
20:00
SPEAKER_00: It's hard to tell over there and what's going on with anything over there.
20:05
SPEAKER_00: Now, gas is at 431 nationally.
20:08
SPEAKER_00: Now I understand that this is a um this is a great social media argument over look what this administration is costing us.
20:24
SPEAKER_00: But I want you guys to remember wasting your energy on blaming an administration for something that yes, their policy is affects, but no, they're they can't control price of is just wasted energy.
20:40
SPEAKER_00: It really was wasted energy in the last administration, and it's wasted energy now.
20:45
SPEAKER_00: What we really need to do is get to the root cause of all of this, and that is these massive global conglomerate energy companies and the refineries and the amount that they are raking in.
20:57
SPEAKER_00: Like I said, they're not just raking in more money because they're doing more work to try to catch up or try to keep caught up with the demand.
21:05
SPEAKER_00: They are literally raised their profits 15 times.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: So let's say what they were getting$1 for, they're now getting$15 for.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: Do you think that's fair?
21:17
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that's fair at all.
21:19
SPEAKER_00: And that's the that's where the problem is.
21:23
SPEAKER_00: So while we were got up to$5.10 nationally a few years back, we're not far from that now.
21:31
SPEAKER_00: Both administrations have dealt with this.
21:33
SPEAKER_00: This is a problem that was coming no matter what.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: It's because of what I told you before.
21:39
SPEAKER_00: The industry pushed to change from oil to electric.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: The AAA national average hit$4.31 per gallon.
21:50
SPEAKER_00: Diesel at an all time high.
21:54
SPEAKER_00: The pipeline was keeping prices from keep going even higher.
21:58
SPEAKER_00: That is now offline.
22:00
SPEAKER_00: Energy crisis just escalated to a level that we've not seen in weeks.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: So, your guess is as good as mine where we go from here.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: Let's get into the second segment.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: But again, before we do, I always want to remind people, just in case we have some new people tuning in here to the Crest Report, texting the word report to metals, M-E-T-A-L-S.
22:22
SPEAKER_00: Report to Metals or 638257 is a great way to start a conversation here at Crest Report.
22:29
SPEAKER_00: Also, if you want to do it the old school way, here's the phone number.
22:33
SPEAKER_00: 888-991-6222.
22:36
SPEAKER_00: That is 888-991-6222.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: Or go to myfreegoldinfo.com.
22:46
SPEAKER_00: The offer right now, for those who qualify for a purchase, free portfolio review to kind of just go over everything, what your portfolio looks like, what you want it to be, what you hope to obtain with a long-term investment in gold and silver.
23:02
SPEAKER_00: Free investor kit as well.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: When I got the investor kit, it was like a it was like a uh a welcoming packet.
23:09
SPEAKER_00: It was really nice.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: And then up to$25,000 of free silver, which I think everybody here would want to have a little bit of right now.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: The August CPI, 3.4% again.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: Now the Fed meets this week.
23:24
SPEAKER_00: As of this recording, the Fed has not met.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: But they're supposed to meet actually today.
23:31
SPEAKER_00: The rate hike odds are above 90%.
23:34
SPEAKER_00: Nobody knows though, because Kevin Warsh keeps everything close.
23:39
SPEAKER_00: Nobody knows.
23:42
SPEAKER_00: But we are at 3.4% year over year, identical to July.
23:46
SPEAKER_00: The monthly increase, 0.4%.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: 0.4%, I should say.
23:53
SPEAKER_00: Core CPI, 2.4% annually.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: But the monthly reading came in at 0.0 or 0.3%, 0.3%, excuse me.
24:01
SPEAKER_00: One tenth above the forecast.
24:04
SPEAKER_00: Gasoline accounted for more than a third of the monthly increase.
24:08
SPEAKER_00: Airfare up nearly 3% in August and up more than 23% year over year.
24:15
SPEAKER_00: If anybody's tried to fly anywhere lately, if you tried to purchase an airline ticket, you know exactly what I'm talking about.
24:22
SPEAKER_00: Now Citigroup economists wrote before the release the fact of the September meeting lies with the August CPI.
24:31
SPEAKER_00: The number came in as feared.
24:34
SPEAKER_00: Not cooling, not accelerating, just staying elevated.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: Combined with August's 162,000 jobs blowout, the Fed had everything it needed to justify a hike.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: Now let's look at rate hike odds by the numbers.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: Friday after CPI, 69%.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: Monday after the Saudi pipeline attack, sending oil above$109 a barrel, and a 10-year topped 5%, the odds jumped to 87 to 92.5% per CME FedWatch.
25:14
SPEAKER_00: As of Tuesday morning, above 90%.
25:18
SPEAKER_00: Worst is widely expected to hike up those rates, which would be the first hike since 2003.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: The diesel inflation chain.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: Diesel, like I said, hit an all-time high this week.
25:31
SPEAKER_00: CNBC's inflation breakdown noted that economists are now more worried about diesel than gasoline.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: I would be too, because the global economy relies on diesel.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: Yes, it does.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: For the transportation of your food, for the transportation of your goods.
25:49
SPEAKER_00: Diesel price is the key.
25:53
SPEAKER_00: Diesel prices feed through the two grocery store shelves with a two to four week lag.
25:59
SPEAKER_00: So the food inflation shock from the pipeline attack hasn't even hit the data yet.
26:07
SPEAKER_00: That'll be next week.
26:09
SPEAKER_00: The end of next week, I should say.
26:12
SPEAKER_00: Now let's talk about the fertilizer warning.
26:14
SPEAKER_00: Again, speaking to you directly from Iowa, a large volume of fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz.
26:23
SPEAKER_00: Now the East-West pipeline bypasses offline too.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: Economists warned this week that global food prices face upward pressure.
26:30
SPEAKER_00: The inflation had started with gas is spreading to groceries, transport, manufacturing, and pretty much everything else downstream of those industries.
26:42
SPEAKER_00: Warsh must hike into an economy where the Saudi pipeline was just knocked out.
26:50
SPEAKER_00: Oil near 110, the 10-year Treasury topping 5%.
26:56
SPEAKER_00: Consumer sentiment is near a 74-year low, and Americans are cracking open their 401ks to pay their bills now.
27:04
SPEAKER_00: Higher rates add more pain, but 3.4 inflation for the sixth consecutive month above target gives really no other choice unless something miraculous happens today or tomorrow.
27:19
SPEAKER_00: Most analysts expect one or two hikes total and then a pause.
27:25
SPEAKER_00: Goldman Sachs revised to two hikes in 2026.
27:29
SPEAKER_00: UBS expects the same.
27:31
SPEAKER_00: After the hike cycle ends, the economy slows, unemployment rises, and the Fed eventually pivots to cuts.
27:38
SPEAKER_00: Bad reversal is the catalyst for the next major gold rally.
27:43
SPEAKER_00: That's why we talk about all this stuff, folks.
27:45
SPEAKER_00: I know it doesn't sound interesting, but if you really want to understand why you're getting into gold and silver, then you must understand the information that drives the gold and silver markets.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: And this is a major part of it right now.
28:00
SPEAKER_00: The question is not whether it comes down, it really is when.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: Again, unless something miraculous happens.
28:07
SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
28:10
SPEAKER_00: Now let's get to the third segment of the day.
28:13
SPEAKER_00: Because we are uh we're already about a little over halfway finished, and we got a lot to get to.
28:19
SPEAKER_00: So don't mind me if I start talking a little faster here, because there's a lot of information in my head and on this paperwork, and I need to get it out to you.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: So, workers' share of income just hit a record low.
28:32
SPEAKER_00: The AI bubble warning is getting louder.
28:35
SPEAKER_00: This Ken Griffin says recession is an unavoidable future.
28:41
SPEAKER_00: Fortune, Business Insider and CNBC.
28:45
SPEAKER_00: Fortune published the data.
28:47
SPEAKER_00: Workers' share of America's total national income is a record low.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: And the AI productivity boom hasn't even fully begun yet.
28:55
SPEAKER_00: Jobs are being added, wages are growing, but the share of the economic pie going to workers has never been smaller.
29:04
SPEAKER_00: Now, don't just get caught up in the headline.
29:07
SPEAKER_00: I said jobs are being added and wages are growing.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: Do you remember in the beginning of the show when I talked about the physical economy?
29:15
SPEAKER_00: The physical economy is growing.
29:19
SPEAKER_00: We're just not seeing the effects of that yet because of the inflation doom, the bubble burst, and the gas and diesel prices.
29:29
SPEAKER_00: But wages are growing and jobs are being added.
29:32
SPEAKER_00: So remember, glass half full.
29:34
SPEAKER_00: There are some positives here.
29:37
SPEAKER_00: Underlying positives that are good for long term in this country.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: That's the good news.
29:43
SPEAKER_00: I always like to give the you know the positivity in every new in every piece of news that I give to you.
29:49
SPEAKER_00: And that is a good one.
29:50
SPEAKER_00: And that is very much true.
29:53
SPEAKER_00: But like I said, the economic share of the pie isn't being distributed.
29:57
SPEAKER_00: The rest is going to corporate profits, capital gains, and debt service.
30:00
SPEAKER_00: Look at Exxon Mobil, look at Chevron, look at these refinery industries and the executives that had a meeting with President Trump last week in the White House, which caused him to put out a true social post that said everything is about ready to come down very quickly.
30:16
SPEAKER_00: So I don't know what's going to happen, but it looks like President Trump might put forward the National Production Act and start putting some actual force behind these refineries and maybe, maybe opening up some old ones.
30:31
SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
30:33
SPEAKER_00: But again, like I said, you've got the lawsuits to deal with when it comes to that.
30:36
SPEAKER_00: But if the president uh enacts those powers, then he's got a lot of leeway.
30:41
SPEAKER_00: And I think that might be what's going to happen.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: Tech industry analyst Eric Gordon.
30:48
SPEAKER_00: He warned this week that the AI bubble could be, quote, the love child of the dot-com crash and the financial crisis.
30:56
SPEAKER_00: Unquote.
30:57
SPEAKER_00: The dot-com bubble had irrational valuations.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: The 2008 crisis had dangerous leverage.
31:04
SPEAKER_00: Today's AI bubble, Gordon argues, has both simultaneously.
31:09
SPEAKER_00: When it unwinds, it won't look like 2000 or 2008.
31:12
SPEAKER_00: It will combine the worst of both.
31:15
SPEAKER_00: And I'll tell you what, these data centers are a rock and a hard place conversation to have because everybody's got an opinion on this.
31:22
SPEAKER_00: But I will tell you this: the data centers, the information that you have is definitely at this point tainted with Chinese propaganda.
31:33
SPEAKER_00: Hundred percent.
31:35
SPEAKER_00: China, if they do not catch up to us in the AI race, then they will become less and less relevant in a world stage.
31:47
SPEAKER_00: So they're doing everything they can.
31:49
SPEAKER_00: And if we regulate ourselves right out of that race, China wins and we will go backwards quickly.
31:56
SPEAKER_00: So the data center conversation is a rock and a hard place conversation to have.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: But I can promise you, there's one that is being proposed, not 30 minutes from my house, that's going to be 25 miles by 25 miles of land being used for this data center.
32:15
SPEAKER_00: And there's a lot of concern over it, and rightly so.
32:18
SPEAKER_00: But there's also a lot of misunderstanding when it comes to what you can demand that these data centers do.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: You can make them build closed-looped, closed-looped operations to where they're not pulling water over and over again.
32:34
SPEAKER_00: They're using the same water, much like a radiator of a car.
32:37
SPEAKER_00: There are demands that you can put in to where they create their own energy.
32:41
SPEAKER_00: There are demands that you can put in that say that they must invest X amount of millions of dollars into your community outside of that in order to make, you know, to increase commerce.
32:53
SPEAKER_00: There are environmental uh demands that you can put in that when they are done, because they do run their course, that they pick up and they dispose of everything themselves on company's dime, not on city's dime.
33:04
SPEAKER_00: There are ways you can do this, and again, we're having those conversations where I live now, but it is a definite difficult um conversation to have because there are negatives as well.
33:17
SPEAKER_00: Now let's get into the stock market.
33:20
SPEAKER_00: The Buffett indicator at 240%.
33:23
SPEAKER_00: Stock market cap to GDP ratio.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: The Buffett, Buffett's own measure sits at 240%.
33:31
SPEAKER_00: He considers stocks overvalued above 100%.
33:34
SPEAKER_00: The last time the SP corrected from these levels to fair value, it wasn't the soft landing, folks.
33:42
SPEAKER_00: Kind of hurt.
33:43
SPEAKER_00: The AI stocks driving the index higher are the same ones that Eric Gordon is warning about.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: Citadel's Ken Griffin, who manages the world's most successful hedge fund, warned earlier this year that a global recession is unavoidable if the strait stays closed for six to twelve months.
34:04
SPEAKER_00: We are now past six months.
34:06
SPEAKER_00: The Saudi pipeline bypass just got taken out.
34:09
SPEAKER_00: So the clock is running out and it's running out quick.
34:15
SPEAKER_00: And that K-shaped economy, phew.
34:18
SPEAKER_00: Top earners still spending, top earners still investing, top earners still doing fine.
34:24
SPEAKER_00: Bottom 60%,$18.8 trillion in household debt.
34:30
SPEAKER_00: Average credit card debt in the country,$6,519.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: At 21% plus interest, by the way.
34:43
SPEAKER_00: Foreclosures are up 21%.
34:46
SPEAKER_00: Car payments average,$750 a month.
34:51
SPEAKER_00: That's why people are cracking into those 401ks, guys.
34:55
SPEAKER_00: The economy, the government reports, and the economy people are living in have never been further apart.
35:06
SPEAKER_00: Look at Social Security insolvency.
35:09
SPEAKER_00: 2032.
35:11
SPEAKER_00: Now I doubt that the government is gonna let Social Security go insolvent, but what do you how how else, besides printing more money, creating more debt, are you gonna handle that?
35:24
SPEAKER_00: I guess you could put investment or tariff money towards it, but that's not the root of the problem.
35:31
SPEAKER_00: The pipeline attack, the CPI print, the Fed hike, none of those fixed Social Security and the shortfall of the funding of it.
35:42
SPEAKER_00: 2032 is still six years away.
35:44
SPEAKER_00: The automatic 28% benefit cut is still written into current law.
35:50
SPEAKER_00: Clock didn't pause for anything that happened this week.
35:53
SPEAKER_00: The Social Security clock did not pause for the pipeline being attacked or the price of a barrel of oil.
36:01
SPEAKER_00: So what all of this adds up to, folks, is this record low worker income share, even though jobs are going up and wages are going up, AI bubble forming with a dot-com mania plus 2,008 levels, recession now technically with Griffin's warned within Griffin's warned window, Social Security insolvency unchanged, and the$40 trillion national debt bill getting more expenses, expensive as rates rise to 5%.
36:32
SPEAKER_00: So where does that bring me to?
36:35
SPEAKER_00: Right back to gold.
36:38
SPEAKER_00: Right back to gold.
36:42
SPEAKER_00: Even though it had its lowest open in weeks, physical buyers are there.
36:47
SPEAKER_00: And that long case that we talk about every day, every time we do this show, stronger than ever.
36:54
SPEAKER_00: Gold, silver.com, Forbes, CBS, and Yahoo Finance.
36:59
SPEAKER_00: All of them talking about this.
37:03
SPEAKER_00: Gold right now, as of the recording of this show.
37:06
SPEAKER_00: Trading sitting at 4325 to 4360 range.
37:10
SPEAKER_00: It's the lowest open in several weeks as the Treasury yields keep climbing ahead of that Fed meeting that we're all so anxiously waiting on.
37:21
SPEAKER_00: The 52-week range.
37:23
SPEAKER_00: 3,660 to 5,626.
37:29
SPEAKER_00: Gold is in the lower third of the 52-week range heading into this rate decision.
37:36
SPEAKER_00: Why did it pull back?
37:38
SPEAKER_00: Rising treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive to paper traders.
37:47
SPEAKER_00: The 10-year crossing 5% is a huge significant signal.
37:54
SPEAKER_00: When bonds pay 5%, some institutional money rotates from gold to treasuries, but only short term.
38:03
SPEAKER_00: Now this is the same mechanism every time rate expectations rise.
38:08
SPEAKER_00: It is a rotation, it is not a reversal.
38:11
SPEAKER_00: So wait for it to boomerang.
38:14
SPEAKER_00: Physical buyers stepped in.
38:16
SPEAKER_00: USA Gold reported that physical buying desks are seeing bargain hunters move into physical silver coins and bullion rather than sellers.
38:27
SPEAKER_00: The pullback in paper prices is drawing physical buyers, which is what I am, who had stepped aside during that August rally.
38:39
SPEAKER_00: So the structural bid still holds.
38:44
SPEAKER_00: Goldman Sachs.
38:47
SPEAKER_00: They have not said anything different than about 5,000 at year end.
38:54
SPEAKER_00: JP Morgan, 4,500 Q4.
39:02
SPEAKER_00: Bank of America, 4,360 average.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: HSBC, 4,560.
39:13
SPEAKER_00: These targets were set knowing about the rate hike, the risk of it.
39:18
SPEAKER_00: GoldSilver.com noted Poland added 51 tones in quarter two of 2026, and China added about 33.
39:26
SPEAKER_00: China's largest single quarter purchase since 2023 of physical gold.
39:33
SPEAKER_00: Neither buyer group unwinds over the FOMC statement.
39:41
SPEAKER_00: Let's look at Forbes.
39:44
SPEAKER_00: The five-year track record.
39:46
SPEAKER_00: Let's look at the five-year track record from Forbes.
39:49
SPEAKER_00: In five years, gold is up 143.54%.
39:53
SPEAKER_00: I always tell you to look at gold and silver from a five-year, or I should say, in five-year increments, right?
39:59
SPEAKER_00: 143.54% in five years.
40:06
SPEAKER_00: That's huge.
40:08
SPEAKER_00: Gold more than doubled the stock market's return in that same period of time.
40:14
SPEAKER_00: Through COVID, through rising rates, through war, through truck, uh, the track record does not change.
40:21
SPEAKER_00: It just keeps going up.
40:24
SPEAKER_00: 143% over five years.
40:32
SPEAKER_00: So what happens after the hike if it comes?
40:35
SPEAKER_00: CBS News ran a uh a clear piece this week.
40:39
SPEAKER_00: After the hike, gold faces short-term pressure as yields rise.
40:44
SPEAKER_00: But the effect is not straightforward.
40:46
SPEAKER_00: Multiple forces are pulling simultaneously.
40:48
SPEAKER_00: And history shows that once the hike cycle ends and the economy slows, that's when gold's next rally begins.
40:57
SPEAKER_00: The hike is a near-term friction.
40:59
SPEAKER_00: The long-term direction is set by debt, debasement, and central bank buying.
41:05
SPEAKER_00: None of which the rate hike changes.
41:10
SPEAKER_00: So let's look at the bull market, 52-week high.
41:14
SPEAKER_00: 5626.
41:18
SPEAKER_00: Gold hit$5,626 in January, and it's at$4,340 today.
41:25
SPEAKER_00: This is 23% below all-time high.
41:30
SPEAKER_00: Remember, Dalio says put 15% in gold.
41:33
SPEAKER_00: And JP Morgan is still targeting$6,000 by end of Q4.
41:39
SPEAKER_00: Pretty incredible.
41:41
SPEAKER_00: Now let's go to my favorite, which is silver.
41:45
SPEAKER_00: Silver at about 65 bucks an ounce.
41:48
SPEAKER_00: It did pull back with gold, but that Saudi pipeline is now coming back into play.
41:55
SPEAKER_00: It pulled back alongside of gold ahead of the Fed meeting as Treasury yields climbed upward of 5%.
42:02
SPEAKER_00: Up 70% year over year, still today.
42:06
SPEAKER_00: From$38 a year ago.
42:09
SPEAKER_00: 78%.
42:11
SPEAKER_00: Excuse me, 70%.
42:15
SPEAKER_00: Physical buyers are stepping in at levels never seen before.
42:21
SPEAKER_00: Now the Saudi pipeline, why are they related?
42:25
SPEAKER_00: Here is the angle most people are missing.
42:28
SPEAKER_00: The Saudi East-West pipeline doesn't just affect oil.
42:32
SPEAKER_00: One-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer, the supply, passes through the Persian Gulf.
42:39
SPEAKER_00: The pipeline attack amplifies the fertilizer disruption, which means food prices, which means broader inflation, which means the monetary premium of silver stays elevated.
42:51
SPEAKER_00: The rate hike is already priced in.
42:54
SPEAKER_00: With 87 to 92% probability of a rate hike, the rate hike is almost entirely priced into silver already.
43:02
SPEAKER_00: When the hike actually happens, the markets realize the next move is data dependent and not necessarily another hike.
43:11
SPEAKER_00: Silver could recover quickly.
43:13
SPEAKER_00: Assets that have already priced in bad news often bounce on the event itself.
43:18
SPEAKER_00: Because remember, it's already priced in.
43:21
SPEAKER_00: China imported silver at a hundred and seventy-three percent above the 10-year seasonal average.
43:32
SPEAKER_00: Why?
43:34
SPEAKER_00: Chinese silver exports are restricted.
43:36
SPEAKER_00: They are no longer allowed to export any silver.
43:42
SPEAKER_00: China's photo um solar manufacturing dominates global silver demand.
43:52
SPEAKER_00: The structural tightening of global silver supply from China and their positioning did not change this week.
43:58
SPEAKER_00: They are still.
44:00
SPEAKER_00: Bringing in and not sending any out.
44:02
SPEAKER_00: They've got plans for silver, and so should you.
44:06
SPEAKER_00: More silver consumed than mined.
44:09
SPEAKER_00: 46 million ounce shortfall this year.
44:13
SPEAKER_00: When that catches up, folks, those who have silver are going to be in a beautiful position.
44:20
SPEAKER_00: A beautiful position.
44:23
SPEAKER_00: Silver was$38 a year ago.
44:26
SPEAKER_00: It hit$121 in January.
44:30
SPEAKER_00: So we know where it went and we know where it can go again.
44:35
SPEAKER_00: Now it pulled back to$55 in July.
44:39
SPEAKER_00: It rallied to$71 in August.
44:42
SPEAKER_00: And it sits about$65 today.
44:46
SPEAKER_00: Ahead of the expected rate hike.
44:49
SPEAKER_00: The structural forces, supply deficit, industrial demand, monetary debasement, they're all still running.
44:57
SPEAKER_00: The rate hike is the near-term friction.
44:59
SPEAKER_00: The Saudi pipeline attack is the next macro escalation.
45:06
SPEAKER_00: And silver sits at the intersection of both.
45:10
SPEAKER_00: So one more time before we end the show today, and thank you for being here.
45:16
SPEAKER_00: I appreciate it.
45:18
SPEAKER_00: Text the word report to metals right now.
45:21
SPEAKER_00: Take out your phone, text the word, report to M-E-T-A-L-S or 638-257 is the number.
45:30
SPEAKER_00: 888-991-6222.
45:32
SPEAKER_00: That's the number you can call right now, and somebody here at Golden Crest Metals will pick up the phone.
45:38
SPEAKER_00: You saw the five-year increase.
45:41
SPEAKER_00: Dominated the stock market.
45:45
SPEAKER_00: Don't wait any longer.
45:47
SPEAKER_00: Myfreegoldinfo.com.
45:49
SPEAKER_00: You get a free portfolio review.
45:51
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45:54
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46:03
SPEAKER_00: No need to wait.
46:05
SPEAKER_00: No pressure when you call.
46:07
SPEAKER_00: Just good old-fashioned golden crest medals nice.
46:12
SPEAKER_00: So somebody standing by today, give us a call.
46:15
SPEAKER_00: We appreciate you.
46:17
SPEAKER_00: We're so very glad that you get your information here with us because we know how important it is to you.
46:23
SPEAKER_00: And that's what we're doing here every week.
46:25
SPEAKER_00: Working for you, making sure that you can make the best possible informed decision that you can.
46:31
SPEAKER_00: And hopefully you make it with us here at Golden Crest Medals.
46:34
SPEAKER_00: My name's Jeremy Harrell.
46:36
SPEAKER_00: Thank you for being here today again.
46:37
SPEAKER_00: I uh I pray that all of you guys have a wonderful week ahead of you.
46:42
SPEAKER_00: Keep your head on a swivel, and we'll see you next week right here at the Crest Report.
46:46
SPEAKER_00: Have a good one, everybody.
46:48
SPEAKER_00: See you later.
46:49
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46:55
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47:04
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47:07
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47:18
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