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Bull Run Insights: Forecasts, Corrections & Opportunities · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome to 'Spy Trader,
• 0:01
  ' your goto podcast for all things S&P 500,
• 0:05
  I'm your host,
• 0:06
  Chuckles McMoney,
• 0:07
  and it's 6 PM on July 30,
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  2024,
• 0:10
  Let's dive into today's key news items,
• 0:13
  analysis,
• 0:13
  and trading recommendations,
• 0:15
  First up,
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  we have some interesting insights from Ned Davis Research,
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  According to their analysis,
• 0:21
  the cyclical bull rally that kicked off in October 2022 is expected to last until at least the summer of 2025,
• 0:29
  If history is any guide,
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  this rally could stretch even further,
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  possibly into 2026 or beyond,
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  Just think of the tech boom of the 1990s—a party that didn't end until the dotcom bubble burst,
• 0:43
  Now,
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  you might have noticed the recent dip in the Nasdaq 100,
• 0:48
  which is down almost 10% from its July peak,
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  Don't panic!
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  This decline is viewed as a typical market correction,
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  Instead of seeing red,
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  this correction is actually presenting us with a buying opportunity,
• 1:02
  Ned Davis Research suggests that investors might want to consider increasing their equity positions,
• 1:07
  particularly in the S&P 500,
• 1:09
  given the longterm bullish outlook,
• 1:11
  On the topic of portfolio allocation,
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  Ned Davis Research recommends a maximum overweight of 70% in equities for balanced portfolios,
• 1:20
  The remaining spread?
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  25% in bonds and 5% in cash,
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  Their optimism is driven by several factors,
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  including evidence of a global economic soft landing,
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  supportive monetary policies,
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  and solid current valuations,
• 1:33
  Now,
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  let's talk about those earnings,
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  Over the last several quarters,
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  we've seen a high earnings beat rate—over 75%—and the expectations for Q2 results look positive,
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  But don't get too comfortable,
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  If we start seeing a decline in these earnings beats,
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  it could signal a more bearish sentiment ahead,
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  In other news,
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  let's shift gears to some specific companies,
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  Landstar System recently reported its secondquarter earnings,
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  The company posted an EPS of $1,
• 2:02
  48,
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  just above the consensus by 3 cents,
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  However,
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  revenue fell 11% yearoveryear,
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  coming in at $1,
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  225 billion,
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  The company's trucking volumes also took a hit,
• 2:13
  down 9% yearoveryear,
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  Interestingly,
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  while Landstar is struggling with lower volumes and revenues,
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  they showed some pricing resistance,
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  Revenue per load is outperforming typical seasonal patterns,
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  and rates may be stabilizing,
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  Though the company cautions against declaring a market turnaround,
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  there's potential for modest improvements in the coming quarters,
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  For our trading recommendations,
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  let's focus on a couple of strategies based on the current market environment:
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  Increase Equity Holdings: Given the extended bull rally,
• 2:44
  consider increasing your equity positions in the S&P 500,
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  Stocks in sectors like technology and consumer discretionary could benefit from the ongoing bull market,
• 2:53
  2,
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  Buy on Corrections: Take advantage of market corrections to buy quality stocks,
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  While the Nasdaq 100 has seen a decline,
• 3:02
  it’s indicative of a shortterm correction rather than a longterm trend reversal,
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  Look for entry points in solid,
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  growthoriented companies,
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  3,
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  Monitor Earnings Closely: Keep an eye on corporate earnings,
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  A strong earnings season can reinforce existing bullish sentiments,
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  but any decline in the earnings beat rate may be an early signal for potential pullbacks,
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  4,
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  Allocate to Value Stocks: Despite the heavy focus on growth stocks,
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  adding some value stocks to your portfolio might provide stability,
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  Companies with strong balance sheets and consistent cash flow could serve as solid anchors amid market volatility,
• 3:40
  Before we wrap up,
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  here's a little broker humor to lighten the mood: How does a stockbroker say goodbye?
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  "Let's touch base,
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  "
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  ' I'll be back in a few hours to keep you updated on all the latest developments in the S&P 500,
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  So,
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  stay tuned,
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  and happy trading!