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AFC West Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
0:12
Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network,
0:18
Speaker 1: continuing our division by division previews. Let's welcome in my
0:23
Speaker 1: co host, my companion Mike and Padre, and my bff
0:26
Speaker 1: professional better Simon hunter Head. O's amit, Chad.
0:33
Speaker 2: I'm so happy that we have gotten through the Hall
0:36
Speaker 2: of Fame game. The Cam Newton Jalen Hurts discourse has
0:40
Speaker 2: been left in July. We are onto August with the
0:44
Speaker 2: dumb football talk has moved to just guys in practice,
0:48
Speaker 2: And I have to know, how are you feeling about
0:51
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams. I mean, this has just been insanity these
0:54
Speaker 2: last seventy two hours. Where's Chad Milman, the Bears fan
0:57
Speaker 2: head at right now?
0:59
Speaker 1: I am so so it's funny. I forgot. I feel
1:04
Speaker 1: like I mentioned it in one of our Western Division previews,
1:13
Speaker 1: something about the Bears and who they're going to be
1:16
Speaker 1: playing and what they challenge. Are they a challenge on
1:19
Speaker 1: the schedule? And I think it's the Raiders actually, And look,
1:26
Speaker 1: my head is spinning at every second is a temperature
1:30
Speaker 1: check on Caleb Williams our friend Colin Cowhard. It feels
1:35
Speaker 1: like because he's now a Chicago a citizen of the
1:41
Speaker 1: suburbs of Chicago. He is talking about Caleb in every show,
1:47
Speaker 1: and my entire feed of whatever I check on social
1:51
Speaker 1: media is Caleb socks. Look at this throw by Caleb
1:57
Speaker 1: Caleb socks. Look at this catch by Luther Burden, Caleb sucks.
2:01
Speaker 1: Look at this catch by Roma dunees A Like I'm
2:06
Speaker 1: so all over the map. The Bears are disappointed. The
2:09
Speaker 1: Bears are happy. Ben Johnson takes it on himself if
2:13
Speaker 1: the team isn't prepared, Caleb is progressing at the rate
2:16
Speaker 1: they want him to progress. The whole thing is mind boggling,
2:19
Speaker 1: and I don't know what to do about it other
2:20
Speaker 1: than be really glad that I bet the Packers at
2:23
Speaker 1: twenty something to want to win the Super Bowl.
2:26
Speaker 2: I told you this was gonna happen in two weeks ago.
2:28
Speaker 2: I said, this guy's offensive system is really complicated, and
2:31
Speaker 2: I wouldn't pay attention to any Caleb Williams talk until
2:34
Speaker 2: about two weeks before the season, just because I knew
2:37
Speaker 2: it was just gonna be awful like this. It's just
2:39
Speaker 2: the way it is when you bring a new system,
2:41
Speaker 2: when you've gone from literally having the easiest coaching staff
2:44
Speaker 2: that really didn't care. To a perfectionist that wants to
2:47
Speaker 2: run his way, there's gonna be growing pains. And my
2:50
Speaker 2: favorite thing is just Bears media where I saw a
2:52
Speaker 2: clip of a Bears guy saying how Caleb's regressed, and
2:55
Speaker 2: it was him taking a snaff under center, dropping back
2:58
Speaker 2: and it was a free runner in his face and
3:01
Speaker 2: Caleb threw that like over a guy's head or to
3:03
Speaker 2: some guy's feet, which was the only play to make
3:05
Speaker 2: other than take a sack. And this guy's talking about
3:07
Speaker 2: how he's regressed, and it's just like this is this
3:10
Speaker 2: is August. This is my favorite part of it, where
3:12
Speaker 2: it's just like if guys have different latencies like these
3:15
Speaker 2: different media members don't like Asians, so they don't like
3:18
Speaker 2: these players. There's different little things like that people need
3:20
Speaker 2: to be aware of. So yeah, I love this time
3:23
Speaker 2: of year. Every little thing in camp to me is
3:25
Speaker 2: the best, even the holdouts, like people are sick of
3:27
Speaker 2: the drama. I love it all because it's all theater, right,
3:30
Speaker 2: that's the most fun part about it, and the fact that
3:32
Speaker 2: it's in my division. I mean, this is the best.
3:35
Speaker 2: This is literally my dream scenario now two division foes.
3:38
Speaker 2: Top players are holding out. It doesn't get much better
3:40
Speaker 2: for me as an Eagles fan.
3:42
Speaker 1: Well, look, I had the strangest experience, and we're going
3:44
Speaker 1: to get to the AFC West and I as of
3:46
Speaker 1: this morning, I was breaking down practice video of Josh Simmons,
3:52
Speaker 1: the new likely left tackle and rookie from Ohio State,
3:55
Speaker 1: going to up against Chris Jones for the Chiefs. I
3:59
Speaker 1: had the strange brands last night. I'm sitting at dinner
4:02
Speaker 1: with my wife and we're realizing that our younger son is,
4:07
Speaker 1: as of today, twenty three days away from going to college.
4:15
Speaker 1: Stacey and I were having dinner together last night. He
4:18
Speaker 1: was out, and as we're talking a we realized when
4:23
Speaker 1: he leaves, there might not be any reason for us
4:25
Speaker 1: to talk to each other anymore. She will be doing
4:28
Speaker 1: her thing, I'm doing my thing. There's no sort of
4:31
Speaker 1: structure to make us come down and eat at the
4:33
Speaker 1: same time anymore, because we're both busy with life and
4:37
Speaker 1: the kid was the thing that made us eat together.
4:41
Speaker 1: But all of a sudden, she started asking me about betting.
4:46
Speaker 1: She was like, so, if a team is minus seven,
4:51
Speaker 1: they have to win by more than seven for you
4:54
Speaker 1: to win your bet I want to be like I
4:57
Speaker 1: was so thrilled she was engaged and interested, and I've
5:00
Speaker 1: didn't want to be like, dude, I've been doing this
5:05
Speaker 1: for twenty seven years at this point, now, after books,
5:12
Speaker 1: after giving up on ESPN and starting freaking Action Network,
5:16
Speaker 1: after creating a life that is entirely around this industry,
5:20
Speaker 1: now you're asking me about what it means if a
5:22
Speaker 1: team is a seven point favorite. But I didn't. I
5:25
Speaker 1: patiently explained, and in the end she's like, I don't know.
5:29
Speaker 1: Man doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. And
5:32
Speaker 1: that's where we landed.
5:34
Speaker 2: Sounds like she's dipping the toes and she wants to
5:36
Speaker 2: get on the action. So I like, it's.
5:38
Speaker 1: Maybe you know what it is? Actually maybe on Sundays
5:41
Speaker 1: she knows I'm going to be miserable without my kid,
5:44
Speaker 1: so she's thinking, how can she sort of improve our
5:49
Speaker 1: collective lives, because if I'm miserable all day with the
5:53
Speaker 1: betting and he's gone, she might want to be helpful
5:57
Speaker 1: in some way.
5:58
Speaker 2: It's true.
6:00
Speaker 1: At one point on the show, Simon, we got to
6:02
Speaker 1: dig in deep on my conversation with the sports performance
6:08
Speaker 1: psychiatrist that I had to break down how I make
6:12
Speaker 1: decisions and how I feel during actual games that I've
6:17
Speaker 1: bet on. I know, I told you I was going
6:18
Speaker 1: to do this for the book. I had the conversation
6:20
Speaker 1: the other day fascinating preview of what we're going to
6:24
Speaker 1: do to come. We're going to go through every team
6:27
Speaker 1: in the AFC in the NFC. As you all know,
6:29
Speaker 1: today we are talking about the AFC West, home of
6:32
Speaker 1: the best franchise in football over the last half decade,
6:34
Speaker 1: in the Kansas City Chiefs. Much as it pains a
6:37
Speaker 1: friend Matt Mitchell. Also, Simon Hunter might argue that a
6:41
Speaker 1: team that's won a Super Bowl and been to a
6:43
Speaker 1: Super Bowl could compete with that mantle. But let the
6:48
Speaker 1: Patriots dominance in the East. Our generation to go, they've
6:51
Speaker 1: relied on a week division full of discharrae. Is that
6:55
Speaker 1: changing with Sean Payton and Jim Harbut now coaching teams
6:59
Speaker 1: in the AFC West. We will discuss. Simon First, one
7:03
Speaker 1: up Kens City Chiefs Division odds minus one, twenty conference
7:08
Speaker 1: odds plus three twenty five, super Bowl plus eight fifty
7:13
Speaker 1: and kind of dropping. It had been at plus seven
7:15
Speaker 1: point fifty win total eleven and a half. I said,
7:20
Speaker 1: at the top. As I was doing research this morning,
7:23
Speaker 1: my primary area that I wanted to get some answers
7:27
Speaker 1: on is have they solved their left tackle issue?
7:31
Speaker 2: Right?
7:31
Speaker 1: That is what cost them the Super Bowl last year?
7:33
Speaker 1: That was a huge issue for them all season long.
7:36
Speaker 1: It has been an issue for them going past the
7:38
Speaker 1: couple of year, going back to the past couple of years.
7:41
Speaker 1: They drafted Josh Shimmons out of Ohio State. They signed
7:45
Speaker 1: Jalen Moore from the Niners, both of them to compete
7:48
Speaker 1: for the left tackle spot. Simmons has clearly taken the
7:50
Speaker 1: lead and has taken all the first team reps in practice.
7:54
Speaker 1: Like I said, there was a video of him practicing
7:57
Speaker 1: taking his first snaps against Chris Jones when he was
7:59
Speaker 1: lying up on the outside and like you just made
8:02
Speaker 1: a know. You know the writers who cover these teams
8:06
Speaker 1: freaking out because he anchored and dropped his hips when
8:09
Speaker 1: Jones tried to get leverage. Obviously, we are going to
8:15
Speaker 1: love the Chiefs at plus eight fifty. I don't think
8:19
Speaker 1: they've solved everything. They still have receiver issues. As much
8:23
Speaker 1: as Rashi Rice has been dominating, he's still may be suspended.
8:27
Speaker 1: If you're worth these in concussion protocol. Hollywood Brown injured
8:31
Speaker 1: his ankle last week. He still hasn't been practicing. Give
8:34
Speaker 1: me your thoughts to your signing.
8:36
Speaker 2: We're very blessed and lucky to live in a time
8:39
Speaker 2: where the Chiefs exist. If you're a sports better, if
8:41
Speaker 2: you're a fan of football, maybe you're sick of one.
8:43
Speaker 2: But as a sports better, it's just been it's the dream.
8:46
Speaker 2: This is like the dream team to bet on because
8:49
Speaker 2: you're investing money here in August and you know it's
8:52
Speaker 2: going to come down to the final game in the
8:55
Speaker 2: AFC Championship Game. Mahomes has played seven full seasons, Chad.
8:59
Speaker 2: We all know the stats, five Super Bowls, seven conference
9:02
Speaker 2: championship games. So it's like he's gonna get you the
9:05
Speaker 2: AFC Championship Game. He might lose it, right, Like we
9:08
Speaker 2: keep talking about Lamar Josh Allen. They are in the
9:12
Speaker 2: football world. They are so doe mathematically, Like to keep
9:15
Speaker 2: repeating what the Chiefs have done, it just doesn't happen.
9:19
Speaker 2: Like people can go back and watch those Patriots teams.
9:21
Speaker 2: They always hit rainom bumps in the road, right, there's
9:23
Speaker 2: always like Brady incredible run. You know he wasn't doing
9:28
Speaker 2: the starter's career. It just this isn't normal, Like there's
9:31
Speaker 2: always going to be the next better team or the
9:33
Speaker 2: team that the luck breaks their way. And you know
9:36
Speaker 2: last year it was an anomaly once again where they
9:39
Speaker 2: went fifteen to one in the regular season. None of
9:41
Speaker 2: that makes sense, Like this is not a team that
9:43
Speaker 2: should be going fifteen to one, and you know, resting
9:46
Speaker 2: starters the end the season, like they were that dominant
9:48
Speaker 2: in one score games. They had a ton of luck.
9:51
Speaker 2: But everyone knows it's it's luck, but it's also the
9:53
Speaker 2: coaching staff and mahomes, like it's just that combo that
9:57
Speaker 2: they get these teams in these fourth quarters and they
9:59
Speaker 2: get their death crip ball them. So plus eight fifty,
10:02
Speaker 2: Like again, we'll talk about it. People know what I
10:04
Speaker 2: like to do here when these odds are blow ten
10:06
Speaker 2: to one, I tend to do matchups. So if you
10:08
Speaker 2: want to do Chiefs first Rams, Chiefs first Eagles, you know,
10:11
Speaker 2: those are positions I've taken at this point. But yeah,
10:15
Speaker 2: this division odds, the fact that the highest any book
10:18
Speaker 2: has had is minus one twenty, there's still some one
10:20
Speaker 2: tens out there. You have to love that value on
10:22
Speaker 2: this team this year, and it should be what it is, right.
10:25
Speaker 2: I do get why the number is this low, because
10:28
Speaker 2: you know, we talked months ago, this is the best
10:30
Speaker 2: coaching division all of football. Like they have all these
10:32
Speaker 2: old heads, all these Hall of famers that just know
10:35
Speaker 2: how to do it right. And these are the type
10:38
Speaker 2: of guys that you can give them shit and they'll
10:40
Speaker 2: stirt turn out the gold and it's like, you know,
10:43
Speaker 2: last year Hardball was a perfect example that he brought
10:45
Speaker 2: in his DC coordinator from Michigan, totally revamped that defense,
10:50
Speaker 2: Toty Rove, vamped the offense with Greg Rohman, the Charge
10:53
Speaker 2: were a playoff team. You know, pretty damn good. Like
10:56
Speaker 2: it was one of Herbert's best years. You could say
10:58
Speaker 2: Sam could be said expected for or what happened with
11:01
Speaker 2: bow Nicks and Sean Payton. Now you're looking at the
11:03
Speaker 2: Chiefs though, and minus one ten for this division chat,
11:05
Speaker 2: So I don't know about you. This is a number.
11:07
Speaker 2: Right away, I ran to the window and took They
11:09
Speaker 2: were ten to one, no joke. They were ten to
11:11
Speaker 2: one Super Bowl odds a couple of months ago. So
11:13
Speaker 2: that's a number I've been betting as well. Now that
11:15
Speaker 2: it's down to plus eight fifty, you can still do it.
11:17
Speaker 2: But like I said, I I'd rather bet the matchups
11:19
Speaker 2: where we get fifty to one like I had last
11:22
Speaker 2: year sixty five to one. That's to me, ned's better
11:26
Speaker 2: tying your money up for six seven months here. But
11:29
Speaker 2: if your biggest question right now, chat is the receiver position,
11:32
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna be okay like worthy. To me,
11:35
Speaker 2: he's got a ton of talent. I think he's a stud.
11:38
Speaker 2: Rice might miss four games, that's not a problem for
11:40
Speaker 2: this team. This team just literally does not care about
11:43
Speaker 2: September or October. Like. This is a November, December, January,
11:47
Speaker 2: February team, So not a problem to me. Kelsey is
11:50
Speaker 2: under a new phase of his career. He's more of
11:51
Speaker 2: a blocking tight end at this point. Damn good blocking
11:54
Speaker 2: tight end, I might say. So. To me, it's it's
11:56
Speaker 2: all there for them to win this division again, you know,
11:59
Speaker 2: be the one on two or three seed. We don't
12:02
Speaker 2: care if they're on the ruin in the playoffs. It's
12:03
Speaker 2: just it's Mahomes in the playoffs. So yeah, to me,
12:07
Speaker 2: it's a great time to be a football fan like
12:09
Speaker 2: we are so blessed. Is it better have this type
12:11
Speaker 2: of team where we know me and Chad know the deal.
12:13
Speaker 2: If it's over three and a half, we fade them
12:15
Speaker 2: during the regular season. If it's under three in a
12:17
Speaker 2: field goal, if you're catching points as of dog mahomes,
12:20
Speaker 2: it's simple. We just go by the book. So yeah,
12:23
Speaker 2: it's it's it's a fun team to bet on. End.
12:25
Speaker 2: I get where the general public is sick of them,
12:27
Speaker 2: but nothing's gonna change. They're great drafting teams. So yeah,
12:30
Speaker 2: minus minus one ten division odds probably be my best
12:33
Speaker 2: bet for this team this division.
12:35
Speaker 1: What about We've talked a little bit about parlaying them
12:39
Speaker 1: because they're a minus number with other teams like the Texans,
12:44
Speaker 1: who are a little bit of plus number to win
12:47
Speaker 1: the AFC South. Are there parlay combinations that you've been
12:52
Speaker 1: looking at and thinking about with the minus.
12:54
Speaker 2: Number, Yeah, like I have them. I don't. I never
12:58
Speaker 2: go above three less. I'm going really small in the number.
13:01
Speaker 2: So say I'm putting four to five figures in these parlays,
13:05
Speaker 2: the most I'll go is three, and if I'm really
13:08
Speaker 2: going large, I only go two. Like right now, if
13:11
Speaker 2: I'm going just AFC. My two favorite teams at parlay,
13:14
Speaker 2: it's going to be the Chiefs and the Bills, like
13:16
Speaker 2: there's just isn't a world. I don't say any of
13:17
Speaker 2: these teams, and I hope people were like, well, that's lazy.
13:20
Speaker 2: It happens every year. That's why I love it. Every
13:22
Speaker 2: year I go to the books and I've made this
13:25
Speaker 2: bet since Mahomes. You know, I didn't do it his
13:28
Speaker 2: first year. I didn't think you'd be good, but it
13:31
Speaker 2: was kind of a weird thing where I still really
13:32
Speaker 2: did believe in Herbert at that time. This is a
13:36
Speaker 2: little different where you know, we're at the point now
13:39
Speaker 2: of I just Josh Allen's career. I think he's in
13:43
Speaker 2: the prime. Mahomes, I think he's in a prime. So
13:46
Speaker 2: if you're looking for very lazy safe, to me, that's
13:48
Speaker 2: the safest one. Where I do love Lamar. We'll get
13:50
Speaker 2: to the Ravens. I love them this year. There is
13:52
Speaker 2: a little bit of risk with that, just because of
13:54
Speaker 2: Lamar's playing style. We've seen him go down where Josh
13:57
Speaker 2: Allen just seems to hold up. So yeah, but when
14:00
Speaker 2: you want to stretch it, Chad like, yeah, we're going
14:01
Speaker 2: to get to it. I love, obviously the Eagles for
14:04
Speaker 2: their division. They're a team that another team that's just
14:08
Speaker 2: I think above and beyond their their foes and their division.
14:11
Speaker 2: And you know, when you go through all the different divisions,
14:14
Speaker 2: it's last year kind of felt like it was really easy, right.
14:17
Speaker 2: It kind of felt like we all knew Detroit was
14:19
Speaker 2: going to win their division. It wasn't that easy. Chat
14:21
Speaker 2: It came down to that last game against the Vikings,
14:23
Speaker 2: and I had to make a huge hedge because I
14:26
Speaker 2: was I can't believe it looking back, but I was
14:27
Speaker 2: scared of Sam Darnom that last game that he could
14:31
Speaker 2: pull the upside off and win that division. So that's
14:33
Speaker 2: why I like taking these positions, Like you know, you're
14:35
Speaker 2: getting three to one, two to one on these divisional odds.
14:39
Speaker 2: It's just so I can hedg you at the end
14:40
Speaker 2: of the season. It's easier to take positions rather than
14:42
Speaker 2: Bettnam straight.
14:43
Speaker 1: You know what's crazy. You mentioned Mahomes his first full
14:47
Speaker 1: season playing was twenty eighteen. We're going to talk about
14:52
Speaker 1: the Cardinals and Kyler Murray later this week in the
14:56
Speaker 1: NFC West preview. Kyler Murray's first season with two thousand nineteen,
15:01
Speaker 1: And if you think about those two quarterbacks in context,
15:04
Speaker 1: like Patrick Mahomes feels like he is a dominant player
15:08
Speaker 1: who has been at his peak and living in his
15:11
Speaker 1: peak since the day he started. And Kyler Murray, who's
15:14
Speaker 1: only one year behind in terms of full seasons played,
15:18
Speaker 1: feels like every year we are waiting for him to peak.
15:21
Speaker 1: Even though he had that injury. Patrick Mahomes had injury
15:23
Speaker 1: too in his career that forced them to miss basically
15:28
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. It's just astonishing to put
15:31
Speaker 1: in context how quickly Patrick Mahomes was Hall of Fame
15:37
Speaker 1: worthy and how long he has performed at that peak
15:42
Speaker 1: level in the NFL. It's remarkable. Like I'm looking at
15:47
Speaker 1: his stats right now, Okay, first full season five thousand yards,
15:53
Speaker 1: second full season four thousand yards, third full season four
15:57
Speaker 1: thousand yards, fourth four thousand yards, fifth five thousand yards,
16:02
Speaker 1: sixth four thousand yards. Last year was the first year
16:06
Speaker 1: he's been a full time starter that he hasn't had
16:09
Speaker 1: four thousand yards, and he finished at thirty nine twenty eight.
16:13
Speaker 1: It was also his lowest number of passing touchdowns since
16:18
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. I think that's the year he got hurt,
16:21
Speaker 1: and so like, even at his little drop off, he's
16:29
Speaker 1: still playing at such a high level. It's frightening how
16:32
Speaker 1: good this guy is.
16:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, and against that's the crazy part you just said
16:36
Speaker 2: statistically that was his worst season. That last year was
16:38
Speaker 2: the year to get this team, and they were unbeatable
16:41
Speaker 2: and they had the one season they had home throughout,
16:43
Speaker 2: they had home playoffs. So that's why it's like, we're
16:45
Speaker 2: gonna get to the Bills al hip Tim about the
16:47
Speaker 2: Bills team, it's just brutal. When you got the big
16:51
Speaker 2: bad Chiefs on your side of the conference. It's just
16:54
Speaker 2: they break all the rules. He's the ultimate cheek coach.
16:56
Speaker 2: I just broke it down where it's like people are like,
16:59
Speaker 2: well he's regressing, goes on his deep throws. He doesn't
17:02
Speaker 2: beat you with deep throws anymore. He beats you one
17:05
Speaker 2: yard at a time, one or two dump offs at
17:07
Speaker 2: a time, like he just he's so it's it's just
17:11
Speaker 2: right at a different level of Mahomes at this point,
17:12
Speaker 2: like he doesn't need to beat you downfield. He can
17:14
Speaker 2: just think and dunk you. Twenty five thirty yard drop
17:18
Speaker 2: thirty play drives just wear these teams out, and that's
17:21
Speaker 2: why come the fourth quarter, these teams are mentally exhausted.
17:24
Speaker 2: Where the Chiefs hit their strit it's just it's truly
17:26
Speaker 2: incredible watching them as a fan and someone that breaks
17:28
Speaker 2: down the film. It's just they're so well coached, so
17:31
Speaker 2: smartly put together. It's just and that's the best part
17:34
Speaker 2: is everyone's last memories, him having the worst game of
17:37
Speaker 2: his career in the Super Bowl, of them falling apart.
17:39
Speaker 2: Now they have the third best odds in the AFC
17:41
Speaker 2: because of that. It's just that's why I love betting.
17:43
Speaker 2: It's just the general public. They like the new, They
17:45
Speaker 2: like the new stuff. They don't like the old and news.
17:48
Speaker 2: So it's it's a fun team to bet on right now,
17:50
Speaker 2: just because the value is just insane.
17:53
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers plus three hundred to win the division,
17:56
Speaker 1: eleven to one to win the conference, twenty five to
17:58
Speaker 1: one to win the Super Bowl. In total nine and
18:02
Speaker 1: a half. We know what this team wants to do.
18:07
Speaker 1: They want to run the ball, they want to be physical,
18:09
Speaker 1: they want to play great defense. Right They signed Mikai
18:12
Speaker 1: Becton from the Eagles to fortify the offensive line. They
18:17
Speaker 1: re signed Rashaun Slater, They have Joe Allton. The interior
18:21
Speaker 1: of their offensive line was the challenge last year. Remember
18:23
Speaker 1: so many games where Justin Herbert was just under pressure
18:27
Speaker 1: immediately from the interior pressure. They drafted a Mario and
18:31
Speaker 1: Hampton at running back. They did nothing to improve their
18:37
Speaker 1: receiving core. And maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe the way
18:40
Speaker 1: that Jim Harbaugh wants to play it and Greg Roman,
18:42
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinary, wants to play it, they just want
18:45
Speaker 1: to focus on running the ball and play an elite defense,
18:49
Speaker 1: which they did do last year first in points allowed,
18:52
Speaker 1: fifth and EPA ninth in defensive DVOA first in red
18:57
Speaker 1: zone touchdown percentage allowed first and touchdown allowed in all
19:00
Speaker 1: to those situations. But let's talk about Justin Herbert, because
19:05
Speaker 1: when we did the quarterback show, I had him in
19:08
Speaker 1: the top ten. You did not. So let's talk about
19:13
Speaker 1: where we're head is at and how that makes you
19:15
Speaker 1: think about this team and any of the value or
19:20
Speaker 1: lack of value Super Bowl adds, win total division, odds, conferences.
19:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guessaid that show. We weren't doing a rank
19:28
Speaker 2: on who is the best athlete, who is the best
19:31
Speaker 2: thrower of the ball where it gets the most stats.
19:33
Speaker 2: To me, that's all meaningless. If the goal of football
19:36
Speaker 2: is to win Super Bowl, if the goal of playing
19:38
Speaker 2: football is to win playoff games, and then win the
19:40
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Herbert is not a top ten quarterback in
19:43
Speaker 2: any measurement. This guy has struggled in these big moments,
19:46
Speaker 2: and you know, people will make the many excuses for
19:48
Speaker 2: him because that's just the way society is now. Like
19:51
Speaker 2: if someone likes a player like they like him, they
19:53
Speaker 2: will make so many excuses that make your headspin where
19:56
Speaker 2: it's like everything you're saying it's just bullshit. It's we
19:58
Speaker 2: have the tape, We've watched him play and him struggle
20:00
Speaker 2: in these big moments. Is Herbert like that in the
20:03
Speaker 2: regular season. No, He's pretty good. That's why people get
20:06
Speaker 2: sucked in. They believe in it. And I just noticed
20:09
Speaker 2: during his career in these big games, these tight games
20:11
Speaker 2: where he would get tight, he would struggle. That has
20:15
Speaker 2: not changed and Horrball. You know, maybe he can cure
20:19
Speaker 2: it because this kid has all the time in the world.
20:21
Speaker 2: And me and you both agree on that. I've liked
20:24
Speaker 2: the moves they made this offseason. I get why they
20:26
Speaker 2: didn't go like the attack in the warbesceiar position. You've
20:29
Speaker 2: invested in Latin McConkie and you let you invested in
20:31
Speaker 2: Quentin Johnston, Like those are high draft picks that you've
20:34
Speaker 2: invested big picks in two, they don't need to attack
20:37
Speaker 2: war receui position. Now if they go out and get
20:39
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen, I would love that. Keen now is your
20:41
Speaker 2: third receiver, a veteran coming back and playing for his team.
20:45
Speaker 2: That to me sounds like a logical move. I know
20:46
Speaker 2: it's money. That's money mudding up the water right now
20:49
Speaker 2: because he wants more than they're at than they're given
20:51
Speaker 2: to him. That's okay, I get it. But in a
20:53
Speaker 2: week or two, if they get Keenan Allen here, that
20:55
Speaker 2: to me is a big upgrade to this team because
20:57
Speaker 2: we've seen it without a feeling on Carolina, like there's
20:59
Speaker 2: these veterans, you still have gas in the tank that
21:01
Speaker 2: just on third down, second down there, you know you
21:04
Speaker 2: can rely on them. Herbert will use that to his benefit, right,
21:07
Speaker 2: he will use Keenan Allen. Now we're talking about Hampton.
21:10
Speaker 2: To me, is the biggest edition. Like they're they planned.
21:13
Speaker 2: They had offers in that first round pick to trade back,
21:16
Speaker 2: like they were getting really good offers to move back,
21:19
Speaker 2: and they stayed there and took a running back in
21:21
Speaker 2: the first round. And this is a team that we
21:23
Speaker 2: just talked about their identity is run first. And you know,
21:27
Speaker 2: we don't talk much fantasy here, but this is a
21:28
Speaker 2: guy I'm jacking in all my fantasy football League's. Like
21:31
Speaker 2: when historically, when a team takes a stance on taking
21:33
Speaker 2: them the first round, first round on a running back
21:36
Speaker 2: like we saw Detroit Gibbs, they're gonna give them touches.
21:38
Speaker 2: Even if they're splitting carries, they're gonna give them touches.
21:41
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter where they take them the first They're
21:43
Speaker 2: gonna get that player touches. Because that's such a high investment.
21:46
Speaker 2: You're kind of making a statement as a team passing
21:48
Speaker 2: on I mean, we just talked about like that guy Simmons.
21:52
Speaker 2: He would be a pretty good add to this team.
21:54
Speaker 2: They passed on him. I mean, I don't know if
21:56
Speaker 2: you've heard about John Campbell with the Eagles. He's been
21:59
Speaker 2: a stud for the Eagles. They passed on him again
22:01
Speaker 2: for a running back of this spot. So to me,
22:04
Speaker 2: I kind of like, what their identity is gonna stick with?
22:06
Speaker 2: I want? I want, honestly didn't want to fade this
22:08
Speaker 2: team because I'm I just love the other team's division.
22:11
Speaker 1: You really want to fade this team?
22:12
Speaker 2: I did, but like the more, I like, everything you're
22:14
Speaker 2: saying is a shock to me right now? Yeah, I can't.
22:16
Speaker 2: I can't give other people is under on this nine
22:18
Speaker 2: and a half to me, that's price right just because
22:21
Speaker 2: I have him at nine and eight this season, my model,
22:24
Speaker 2: does you know? That's not enough value to really take it?
22:28
Speaker 2: Where horriball to me. I don't think my model understands
22:30
Speaker 2: that he can. He can steal you one or two
22:32
Speaker 2: this year. That's just that's how good of a coach
22:34
Speaker 2: he is to me. So if you do want to
22:36
Speaker 2: play the over, I totally getting it. I get why
22:39
Speaker 2: people love this team just because Herbert, just like we
22:42
Speaker 2: talked about Lamar and Allen, he will have a breakthrough season.
22:46
Speaker 2: What is that season though? Is that him beating Houston finally?
22:49
Speaker 2: Like it's just like we've been waiting every year, We've
22:52
Speaker 2: been waiting right for him. I mean, here they are
22:54
Speaker 2: once again plus three hundred wins division. Can he do it?
22:57
Speaker 2: I don't know if he can because now this division,
22:59
Speaker 2: to me, Chad is the best it's ever been. So
23:01
Speaker 2: that's the hesitation for me betting any of these, any
23:03
Speaker 2: of these numbers with this team, like eleven on one conference,
23:07
Speaker 2: there's other team's division i'd rather bet. Like to me,
23:09
Speaker 2: there's just no value there. So yeah, the Chargers, I
23:13
Speaker 2: love what they've done coming to this season, how they're
23:15
Speaker 2: setting up for the future. But I'm still of the
23:18
Speaker 2: mindset that the last regime was so bad. They've they've
23:21
Speaker 2: ruined this team so bad. It so many ways. There's
23:23
Speaker 2: still to me, a year or two away from being
23:25
Speaker 2: a true contender. So I'm not gonna invest any money
23:28
Speaker 2: on them or against them at this point. I'm just
23:31
Speaker 2: I'm not losing money on betting their underhere. I just
23:33
Speaker 2: it's too it's too it's too risky with Horrible because
23:36
Speaker 2: he can just steal those games. So nine and a
23:37
Speaker 2: half I think is properly priced.
23:39
Speaker 1: Right when you go through the schedules of these teams,
23:42
Speaker 1: whether it's the Broncos or the Chargers, and want to
23:44
Speaker 1: talk about the Broncos next, you believe enough in the coaches, yeah,
23:49
Speaker 1: that you think, Okay, they're going to steal a win
23:52
Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about this with Pete Peril too,
23:54
Speaker 1: and the Raiders. They could steal a win or two
23:57
Speaker 1: in the division that gets them over the time. And
24:00
Speaker 1: because the division is so competitive they will be able
24:03
Speaker 1: to when they're playing teams outside the division, they're not
24:08
Speaker 1: going to be playing teams that are as good, and
24:11
Speaker 1: so they're going to benefit from playing such a competitive
24:15
Speaker 1: in division schedule, but it also means they might be
24:19
Speaker 1: at risk for losing more games than they otherwise would.
24:23
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean week one, like you're like yours
24:25
Speaker 2: on a division they go to Brazil to play the
24:27
Speaker 2: Chiefs week one, which I think is good for them,
24:29
Speaker 2: like that is like kind of thing where you could
24:30
Speaker 2: steal that game, But then they have two straight division
24:33
Speaker 2: games after that, Like that, that's tough. You start three
24:36
Speaker 2: division games to start the season, and when you just
24:38
Speaker 2: talk on a really tough division and you know you're
24:41
Speaker 2: going on the road to Brazil coming back, and then
24:43
Speaker 2: it's like, okay, now we have to face the Raiders
24:45
Speaker 2: in Denver. It's like that's a tough start to the season.
24:48
Speaker 2: Three straight divisional games. But like you said, if they
24:51
Speaker 2: could somehow steal it, go three and know to start
24:53
Speaker 2: the season in their division, maybe this is final the
24:56
Speaker 2: year for Herbert and all breaks right. But that's also
24:59
Speaker 2: terrifying if you're a of them, where it's like, oh
25:00
Speaker 2: my god, we might have to go to Brazil, we
25:02
Speaker 2: get smoked by the Chiefs. Now we have two straight
25:04
Speaker 2: divisional games. That's I mean, that's the recipe for being
25:07
Speaker 2: one to two, zero to three, So pretty terrifying if
25:10
Speaker 2: you're a Chargers fan.
25:11
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to have to ask my sports
25:15
Speaker 1: performance psychiatrist to do a pop psychiatry examination of Justin
25:23
Speaker 1: Herbert and why he chokes in these bigger games, because look,
25:28
Speaker 1: it's happened a couple times in the playoffs, right Think
25:31
Speaker 1: about that Trevor Lawrence Jags game. Think about that Texans
25:34
Speaker 1: game last year. Think about primetime games in which this
25:38
Speaker 1: guy has had the chance to make a real statement
25:42
Speaker 1: and we were betting on them and it didn't work out. Right,
25:46
Speaker 1: And so is he destined to be one of those
25:49
Speaker 1: quarterbacks who's got great regular season stats and piles up
25:53
Speaker 1: the numbers. How is he going to get over the top,
25:57
Speaker 1: That's the question. And maybe the answer is give him
26:01
Speaker 1: a great fucking defense and a great running game and
26:05
Speaker 1: lessen the pressure in which he has to be making
26:07
Speaker 1: all the plays, because I do think that's also been
26:10
Speaker 1: part of the problem, is like they've had terrible coaching,
26:13
Speaker 1: terrible coordination, and they've put everything on his shoulders because
26:16
Speaker 1: he's so talented.
26:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it's a it's a tough situation.
26:21
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. This is a team simon plus three twenty
26:25
Speaker 1: five in the Division, fifteen to one in the Conference,
26:28
Speaker 1: thirty to one in the Super Bowl, nine and a
26:30
Speaker 1: half wins total projections. You like the Broncos better than
26:35
Speaker 1: the Chargers. I think if I'm gleaning anything from our conversations,
26:40
Speaker 1: if you had to choose the value between the two,
26:46
Speaker 1: my sense is it would be with Denver in some capacity.
26:52
Speaker 2: Yeah. This is another number though that I've been hitting
26:54
Speaker 2: it from the day it came out that it's moved
26:57
Speaker 2: too much now the division a lot. So if it
27:00
Speaker 2: was still plus four hundred plus four fifty like it
27:02
Speaker 2: was to me, that would have been when it was
27:04
Speaker 2: crazy value like that was just insane. The pros have
27:07
Speaker 2: been hitting this one, and I think the public annow
27:09
Speaker 2: started coming on because you know, I love Nick Wright,
27:13
Speaker 2: but he moves numbers, whether he realized it or not.
27:15
Speaker 2: And as soon as I saw him talking up Denver
27:18
Speaker 2: and how it's one of his favorite teams, I was like, oh, okay,
27:20
Speaker 2: this is a problem, and I see Cowhard doing it, it
27:22
Speaker 2: goes Okay, there's a problem. All the guys on Fox
27:24
Speaker 2: FOS one are loving this guy. They're getting viewed by
27:27
Speaker 2: millions of people. A lot of these people bet they're
27:29
Speaker 2: gonna start moving this number. So the Division A lots
27:33
Speaker 2: have moved a lot, they're conference eyes have moved a lot,
27:35
Speaker 2: and the super boads have come down. You could do
27:38
Speaker 2: it if you want to. To me, there's no value
27:40
Speaker 2: there and I just I can't rep my head around
27:43
Speaker 2: bone Knicks being in that same level as Alan Lamar
27:48
Speaker 2: and Mahomes Like, if when you're thinking about betting him
27:51
Speaker 2: to win the conference or the super Bowl, can you
27:54
Speaker 2: get there? Can you get there with your money and
27:57
Speaker 2: knowing that that's gonna be a really tough decision when
27:59
Speaker 2: they do play because you will be the dog. So
28:01
Speaker 2: it's gonna be a little tougher for you to hedge
28:03
Speaker 2: in that position when he plays those guys in the playoffs,
28:05
Speaker 2: if you are taking a position on him to win
28:07
Speaker 2: this super Bowl or the conference. So you know, love
28:10
Speaker 2: this team because of the defense and the head coach,
28:13
Speaker 2: and then you think about what he's done with bon Knicks,
28:16
Speaker 2: and we talked about it when we talk about, you know,
28:18
Speaker 2: teams we love coming of the season. That's how you
28:19
Speaker 2: know if I love Denver is that if there's anything
28:22
Speaker 2: in there left that he can ring out and keep approving,
28:26
Speaker 2: he will do that with bon Nicks, Like that's what
28:28
Speaker 2: makes Sean Paint such a great coaches. He can keep
28:30
Speaker 2: improving on these quarterbacks and find out their strengths and
28:33
Speaker 2: making it get better and better. And between the offensive line,
28:37
Speaker 2: the wide receivers. I know they've drafted some running backs,
28:39
Speaker 2: like it could all line up for this team for
28:42
Speaker 2: me in this division, that they could be the one
28:45
Speaker 2: that finally dethrones my Homes. But that's what sucks that
28:48
Speaker 2: it's moved so much now that there's another team this
28:50
Speaker 2: division that now has better odds that are better value
28:53
Speaker 2: at this point. So yeah, with Denver and bon Knicks,
28:57
Speaker 2: it's it's high hopes, but I think at the end
29:01
Speaker 2: of the day, it's just are can you get there?
29:05
Speaker 2: To think he could pull off the upsets of all
29:07
Speaker 2: upsets and beat those three that three headed monster at
29:09
Speaker 2: the end that's waiting for him, Lamar, Josh Allen or Mahomes.
29:11
Speaker 2: He's gonna have to go through at least two of them.
29:13
Speaker 2: We know that for a fact, and I think it
29:14
Speaker 2: breaks really wrong. You might have to go through all three.
29:16
Speaker 2: So I just can't get there personally. I can't put
29:19
Speaker 2: my money into that. But if you, if you were
29:23
Speaker 2: out there and you can find it better than three
29:25
Speaker 2: seventy five number on this division, aize, I wouldn't hate that.
29:27
Speaker 2: I got it right there. I got them at plus
29:29
Speaker 2: three hundred, so plus you know, seventy five, that's that's
29:32
Speaker 2: a nice value to me. But it's it's to me,
29:36
Speaker 2: it's just the bets, the win total. Like, if you
29:37
Speaker 2: believe this team over nine and a half, you gotta
29:40
Speaker 2: take it like that. The only way they were aggressing
29:43
Speaker 2: to that number is just because this division hasn't proved
29:45
Speaker 2: so much. So yeah, just looking at their schedule the
29:48
Speaker 2: way it's all broken out, I like how it sets
29:51
Speaker 2: up for them this upcoming season. And the fact that
29:53
Speaker 2: they end Chiefs Chargers those are their last two games
29:57
Speaker 2: at the end of the season. That's another way I
29:59
Speaker 2: like it that to break for this type of team.
30:01
Speaker 2: So yeah, I just nine and a half when told
30:03
Speaker 2: that's the only real bet I'd give out on the
30:05
Speaker 2: show for Denver.
30:07
Speaker 1: Well, look, you're not wrong with sort of a lot
30:10
Speaker 1: of the pundits weighing in that the Broncos are getting
30:13
Speaker 1: a lot of heat, like throughout training camp, through the
30:16
Speaker 1: training camp circuit, through the NFL, you know, Grapevine, all
30:21
Speaker 1: the reporters talk to each other, they all start whispering
30:24
Speaker 1: about which team they like, and just to pull back
30:28
Speaker 1: the curtain a little bit, that's how these rumblings start.
30:33
Speaker 1: Forget about betting. But you know, this person said they
30:37
Speaker 1: were Broncos camp and they heard it from a scout,
30:39
Speaker 1: and then they tell one of their buddies who's covering
30:41
Speaker 1: the NFL, and then they start telling other people. A
30:43
Speaker 1: lot of times, these guys haven't even seen the Broncos practice.
30:46
Speaker 1: They probably haven't watched their tape. They haven't. Maybe they've
30:49
Speaker 1: seen a couple of clips on Twitter, but that starts
30:52
Speaker 1: getting shared as sort of candy throughout the media ecosystem,
30:59
Speaker 1: and all of sume sudden, the Broncos are one of
31:02
Speaker 1: those teams that everybody is talking about as being a
31:05
Speaker 1: Super Bowl contender. I just saw it the other day.
31:08
Speaker 1: I saw, like, you know, Mike Florio interview on Rich
31:13
Speaker 1: Eyesen come across my feed and Florio was talking about
31:18
Speaker 1: are the Broncos one of those teams that can be
31:20
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl contender? If it wasn't Florida, I apologize
31:24
Speaker 1: it was somebody and like, you see that, and you know,
31:28
Speaker 1: that's how these conversations start, and it's why these numbers
31:33
Speaker 1: start moving. And look, maybe the best way to help
31:36
Speaker 1: a young quarterback like bo Nicks is the same thing
31:38
Speaker 1: we just said about. The Chargers run the ball, play
31:42
Speaker 1: great defense, and the Broncos. The Chargers had a really
31:45
Speaker 1: good defense. The Broncos had the best defense. They had
31:48
Speaker 1: the most active defense. They had Patrick certain who was
31:52
Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year, first in sacks, first and
31:57
Speaker 1: expected points added. Like, they've added Hufanga, the safety from
32:05
Speaker 1: the Niners. They added dra Greenlaw the linebacker. They used
32:09
Speaker 1: their first pick on a cornerback, the kid from Texas,
32:13
Speaker 1: John day Barn. So they're focused on defense and making
32:18
Speaker 1: sure that defense doesn't regress at all. So I can
32:24
Speaker 1: see why people are getting excited about him. But yeah,
32:26
Speaker 1: the numbers have moved.
32:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Zach Allen, another guy on their D line,
32:30
Speaker 2: might be the next sir down. Like, this guy is
32:34
Speaker 2: incredibly talented and he's just a workhorse. So you know,
32:38
Speaker 2: This is like you're asking for the Chiefs offensive line.
32:40
Speaker 2: The Chiefs still have the best center all of football.
32:44
Speaker 2: They built around that. They're going to be all right.
32:45
Speaker 2: The Chiefs always forgot the offensive line Denver. They didn't
32:48
Speaker 2: really have that grace where they they had a great
32:51
Speaker 2: offensive line last year for rejecting them. Have another great
32:53
Speaker 2: offensive line this year, and that to me is gonna
32:55
Speaker 2: be the key to them. Where you know, bo Nick's
32:57
Speaker 2: like they talk about him, take on that Josh Allen step.
33:00
Speaker 2: That's what their hope is, right. They're hoping he becomes
33:02
Speaker 2: Josh Allen type, a guy who can move throwing the
33:05
Speaker 2: run like that, strong and run through hits. That's a
33:08
Speaker 2: lot of weight to put on this kid's shoulder. So yeah,
33:10
Speaker 2: that that offensive line needs a hold up from last
33:13
Speaker 2: year to what they are this year. And if bon
33:15
Speaker 2: Neicks takes that next step, it's all there. I get
33:18
Speaker 2: why they're being hyped up right now because I saw
33:20
Speaker 2: weeks like months ago. You know, when I looked at
33:22
Speaker 2: this team, it was like, okay, Ken, they keep building
33:25
Speaker 2: on what they build all flash and it all comes
33:26
Speaker 2: down to the quarterback position and the unknown with bone Knicks,
33:29
Speaker 2: And like I said, it's I just can't believe we
33:32
Speaker 2: werely gonna be sitting here a year from now being like, yeah,
33:34
Speaker 2: he did it. Bon Knicks went to the FC Championship game,
33:37
Speaker 2: like he beat lamar Ma Homes or Josh allenl Ray
33:40
Speaker 2: there like it's just it happens. That's why I love
33:43
Speaker 2: football so much. These these quarterbacks, you see it coming,
33:46
Speaker 2: but it's hard to believe it beforehand. And we've seen
33:49
Speaker 2: the flash of bone next year. They they overachieved so
33:52
Speaker 2: much last year. It's how much are they gonna regressor?
33:54
Speaker 2: How much are they going to improve? That's the hardestport
33:56
Speaker 2: trying to measure this team right now because there are
33:59
Speaker 2: a lot of red flash about them are regressing, but
34:01
Speaker 2: there's so much good and all starts with their head coach,
34:04
Speaker 2: and it's like Sean Payton Hall of Fame or offensive genius.
34:07
Speaker 2: He'll make it work somehow. So that's why I have
34:10
Speaker 2: faith in this team. I know it's gonna be tough
34:11
Speaker 2: for people out there, but nine and a half to me,
34:14
Speaker 2: that's good value on the team. I have at ten
34:15
Speaker 2: and a half wins, So you know that's that's a
34:17
Speaker 2: really nice bet for me right now.
34:19
Speaker 1: Harball and Peyton like they're doing the same thing, right. Yeah,
34:23
Speaker 1: they've got great defenses. They're trying to figure out ways
34:26
Speaker 1: to make the game a little bit easier for their quarterback.
34:30
Speaker 1: They're going to go about it in different ways, right,
34:32
Speaker 1: Payton's going to be more creative. He's going to think
34:34
Speaker 1: about more of the short passing game. He's going to
34:36
Speaker 1: try to take advantage of what Bonix is really good at.
34:39
Speaker 1: Harbaugh is just going to try to run the ball
34:41
Speaker 1: and not put it all on Herbert's shoulders. Let's not
34:47
Speaker 1: discount the other coach in this division. There are three
34:53
Speaker 1: Super Bowl winning coaches in this division. Jim Harbaugh is
34:57
Speaker 1: the only one who is not a super per Bowl
35:00
Speaker 1: winning coach. Pete Carroll is the new coach of the
35:05
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. Fifteen to one to win the division,
35:10
Speaker 1: fifty to one to win the conference, one hundred to
35:14
Speaker 1: one to win the Super Bowl. Six and a half
35:18
Speaker 1: is the win total. I'm curious. I will tell you
35:24
Speaker 1: right now when I made my list of favorite division bets.
35:33
Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell you where the Raiders over
35:35
Speaker 1: win total was, but it's on the list. Let me
35:40
Speaker 1: give you before I ask your opinion. Let me give
35:44
Speaker 1: you a stat. I looked this up and I was stunned.
35:48
Speaker 1: In his career with the Patriots, the Seahawks, and the
35:51
Speaker 1: New York Jets, how many times, Simon has Pete Carroll
35:56
Speaker 1: had fewer than seven wins? And remember, when you take
36:01
Speaker 1: on a new team, whether it's the Jets, the Patriots
36:04
Speaker 1: or the Seahawks, you're generally taking over a shitty team.
36:07
Speaker 1: You're in a bad situation. So three times he's taken
36:09
Speaker 1: over a new team, how many times in his career
36:12
Speaker 1: any season has he won fewer than seven games?
36:17
Speaker 2: I mean that Jets and Patriot as a little before
36:20
Speaker 2: my time. I know, obviously he coached there, and I
36:25
Speaker 2: know that the Beast Quake was a seven and nine seasons,
36:29
Speaker 2: so he gets it feels get someone on a lot.
36:31
Speaker 2: So I don't know, probably less than three times once
36:34
Speaker 2: once there.
36:35
Speaker 1: You go his first season as a head coach with
36:39
Speaker 1: the New York Jets nineteen ninety four, and by the way,
36:43
Speaker 1: before your time, of course, not before my time. When
36:46
Speaker 1: I was a young reporter for Sports Illustrated, I had
36:50
Speaker 1: to go interview Pete Carroll at Foxborough when he was
36:54
Speaker 1: coaching the Patriots. And you know, he's so hippy dippy
36:57
Speaker 1: kind of thing, even though he's super intense and competitive. Uh,
37:01
Speaker 1: We're sitting there and I'm sitting with him, and you know,
37:03
Speaker 1: there's a very famous author named Dan Millman who has
37:09
Speaker 1: written these books that are sort of spiritual in nature
37:15
Speaker 1: and about improvement and finding your zen. He just wanted
37:21
Speaker 1: to talk to me about Dan Milman. He's like, you
37:22
Speaker 1: know Dan Milman. I'm like, I don't know him. He goes,
37:24
Speaker 1: let me tell you about Dan Milman. And that's when
37:25
Speaker 1: we end up talking about the entire time I interviewed him.
37:32
Speaker 1: Simon one season with less than seven wins in nineteen
37:36
Speaker 1: ninety four, thirty one years ago, you were four years old.
37:45
Speaker 2: I didn't exist.
37:48
Speaker 1: I mean, you didn't exist thirty nine years ago. Thirty
37:51
Speaker 1: one years ago, oh oh thirty one.
37:54
Speaker 2: Yeah.
37:54
Speaker 1: Hey, By the way, I got a Frindy story today.
37:58
Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell the whole story because I
37:59
Speaker 1: want to save it for when we talk about the
38:03
Speaker 1: NFC East. Because I hung out with some guys here
38:06
Speaker 1: in West Herford the other night who are massive Eagles fans,
38:11
Speaker 1: and they were they listened to the show, and Uh,
38:18
Speaker 1: we're standing in the kitchen hanging out for a minute,
38:22
Speaker 1: and one of the one of the guys says to me, Yeah,
38:25
Speaker 1: I love I love the way you guys broke down
38:27
Speaker 1: the the Eagles and the Chiefs Super Bowl. That younger
38:30
Speaker 1: guy on your show, I'm like, younger guy. That's that's
38:35
Speaker 1: how we're framing this whole thing, is the younger guy.
38:40
Speaker 2: He's just staying in fact, Chad, when I look at
38:43
Speaker 2: this Raiders team, you looked like I was a crazy person.
38:45
Speaker 2: I said, I they were my seventh team in the playoffs,
38:48
Speaker 2: And I got where you're coming from, because it's hard
38:51
Speaker 2: to hear Raiders playoffs in any sense.
38:54
Speaker 1: Totally with you, by the way.
38:56
Speaker 2: Right right right now, Like now that you've like looked
38:58
Speaker 2: into a little bit more, you see where I'm coming from.
38:59
Speaker 2: Where it's like, can they thread that needle? And that's
39:02
Speaker 2: gonna be the hardest part is, like we just talk
39:04
Speaker 2: about Chargers in Denver are so talented, all four of
39:09
Speaker 2: these teams around making a playoffs, someone's gotta be the
39:11
Speaker 2: odd man out. And that's why I'm going That's why
39:13
Speaker 2: I went with the Chargers, And it really is just
39:16
Speaker 2: about value and that's at the end of the day,
39:17
Speaker 2: that's where we're trying to bet here, and we've talked
39:19
Speaker 2: about all the time there's always that team that goes
39:22
Speaker 2: from worse to first or to a playoff team, and
39:25
Speaker 2: last year we had it with Washington, and you could
39:28
Speaker 2: say we had it with Denver hell In this division,
39:29
Speaker 2: like you know, these teams are just a very low
39:33
Speaker 2: view by the public and not on people's radar. I
39:36
Speaker 2: feel like the Raiders is gonna start popping on people's
39:38
Speaker 2: radar here in the next couple of weeks. I feel
39:40
Speaker 2: That's why I wanted to get ahead of it weeks
39:41
Speaker 2: ago and I gave them out as a playoff team
39:43
Speaker 2: because they're a team that people kind of forget that
39:47
Speaker 2: it's just a whole different regime there and that, yes,
39:50
Speaker 2: their secondary, you could argue, is the worst in football.
39:54
Speaker 2: I cannot fight you on that because I've I've dove
39:57
Speaker 2: into it too, and they're they're they're They're Raiders. Defen
40:00
Speaker 2: fense could have major issues, but when you break down
40:04
Speaker 2: this offense with Genty, with the fact that you know
40:07
Speaker 2: they're not the offense line is not terrible. That obviously
40:09
Speaker 2: needs a little bit of improvement, but you know, between
40:12
Speaker 2: Gentee and Bowers and Chip Kelly, I love that. I
40:16
Speaker 2: love that they have an offensive guy that's gonna knows
40:18
Speaker 2: how to get the best players of the ball. So,
40:19
Speaker 2: Gina Smith, you know, I told you I was saving
40:22
Speaker 2: this for the season long. He's a different, totally different
40:26
Speaker 2: player in dome games. He's way above five hundred is
40:30
Speaker 2: against the spread. It's like about you know, seven hit
40:34
Speaker 2: rate and against the spread in indoor dome games. So
40:37
Speaker 2: it's like type of scenario where he's always outperformed with
40:41
Speaker 2: book makers are per projection of him indoor games in
40:44
Speaker 2: the general public. So I already love that coming in
40:46
Speaker 2: where it's like, Okay, he spent his whole career in
40:49
Speaker 2: outdoor stadiums Now he's inside in a dome game. And
40:53
Speaker 2: you know, sure he could get some tough weather games.
40:56
Speaker 2: I know the end of the season, you know they
41:00
Speaker 2: are at Philly and they're at Houston. I think Houston's
41:03
Speaker 2: in door actually, But there's just a bunch of things
41:06
Speaker 2: align up for them that they're always gonna be in
41:08
Speaker 2: these preferable weather conditions for this type of offense. They're
41:10
Speaker 2: gonna running or so fifteen to one division odds, jad
41:14
Speaker 2: I bet it. This opened at seventeen to one it's
41:17
Speaker 2: been bet down at fifteen to one. It's it's too
41:20
Speaker 2: too big to me, this is a team that could
41:22
Speaker 2: shock the world just because of all the veteran presence
41:24
Speaker 2: they have. And you just talk about Pete Carroll like that,
41:26
Speaker 2: to me is such a game changer that this guy
41:29
Speaker 2: the players of the play form. He wills these guys
41:31
Speaker 2: get the best out of them, and I just can't
41:33
Speaker 2: see them slipping below that. So yeah, another favorite win
41:36
Speaker 2: total for me, division wise, six and a half. I
41:39
Speaker 2: love even morn Now you hit me at that stat
41:41
Speaker 2: about Pete Carroll like that just lines up for my
41:43
Speaker 2: projection of this team being a whole new identity and
41:46
Speaker 2: it all really starts with Gino. But obviously I don't
41:49
Speaker 2: think people get this kid genty. He could be an
41:51
Speaker 2: absolute game wrecker, Like if he is what we are
41:54
Speaker 2: projecting him to be, which is a Saquan light like
41:57
Speaker 2: that type of built right, He's all thighs like people
42:00
Speaker 2: realize Saikwan Barkley is, like he plays at two forty
42:03
Speaker 2: two forty of just muscle, like I'm severely overweight. If
42:07
Speaker 2: you've met me, I'm probably forty pounds. Heavery that I
42:10
Speaker 2: could imagine being two forty of muscle, you know, running
42:13
Speaker 2: around like he is. And that's what genty is. Genty
42:15
Speaker 2: is a little guy who's thick. He's like two thirty
42:18
Speaker 2: two twenty five playing weight and it's all in his thighs.
42:21
Speaker 2: I just love the way he's built the NFL. And
42:24
Speaker 2: this is the exact type of Snaire we want, right,
42:26
Speaker 2: It's the execul Elliott when he first came in. You
42:28
Speaker 2: want those first four years with these high rookie draft
42:31
Speaker 2: picks of just excellence. Right. He's still young enough to
42:34
Speaker 2: run on that weight. So yeah, long winded answer, Chad.
42:38
Speaker 2: I think you can tell it hyped up on him
42:39
Speaker 2: about this Raiders team, but it just feels like it's
42:41
Speaker 2: all lined up for them to be the sleeper of
42:42
Speaker 2: the AFC this season. And uh, six and a half
42:45
Speaker 2: just disrespectful line to this team. But I think again,
42:48
Speaker 2: because it's the third division, the general public is just
42:50
Speaker 2: not buying it on them. But you you knocked out
42:53
Speaker 2: of the park. I got him an eight and a
42:54
Speaker 2: half wins, So this is my biggest rescreptancy so far.
42:56
Speaker 2: We've done them the show two wins lower than they
42:59
Speaker 2: should be. I love this number for this range team.
43:01
Speaker 1: It's it's the division, but it's also public perception. This
43:06
Speaker 1: is a public perception game, right And I see looking
43:10
Speaker 1: at the schedule, three better than fifty to fifty games, Titans, Giants,
43:15
Speaker 1: Browns all at home. I see two fifty to fifty games,
43:19
Speaker 1: both at home, Jags and Bears. I think Week five
43:22
Speaker 1: at the Colts is a wild card at this point,
43:25
Speaker 1: we will see, but it could be by the time
43:28
Speaker 1: they're playing the Colts, they are a significantly better team
43:32
Speaker 1: than the Colts are. That could be six wins right there.
43:36
Speaker 1: They are three point dogs in Week one at New England.
43:40
Speaker 1: That'll be a fascinating game. Right, So seven games right
43:44
Speaker 1: there where you can feel very good to fifty to
43:52
Speaker 1: fifty better than even maybe chance they could win. And
43:56
Speaker 1: then just becomes a question can Pete Carroll Congino Smith?
44:00
Speaker 1: Can they be savvy enough to pull off an upset
44:03
Speaker 1: as they often are able to do in the division
44:07
Speaker 1: at home against the Broncos, against the Chargers, against the Chiefs.
44:11
Speaker 1: So if we were to recap here, my favorite division
44:18
Speaker 1: bet from this division Raiders over six and a half.
44:21
Speaker 1: Full stop, that's it.
44:23
Speaker 2: Raids over six and a half.
44:27
Speaker 1: I don't hate it, which do you like, what's yours?
44:32
Speaker 2: Then?
44:32
Speaker 1: Is it Raiders over six and a half? Is it Raiders?
44:35
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with my biggest investment, my personal money
44:40
Speaker 2: is no doubt the Chiefs divisional odds, like I've just
44:43
Speaker 2: been hitting that one pretty heavy, but when total wise, yeah,
44:47
Speaker 2: it's not close. Raiders for this division is my biggest one.
44:50
Speaker 2: Second is Denver obviously really love that number as well.
44:55
Speaker 2: And then the Chiefs. I just every year I'm betting it.
44:58
Speaker 2: The only fear is they're going to have a ten
45:01
Speaker 2: and seven year, Like I don't know if it's gonna
45:03
Speaker 2: be this year or they'll you know, eleven and six. Eventually,
45:06
Speaker 2: their their division is going to catch them in these
45:08
Speaker 2: games because last year was just we talked about it,
45:09
Speaker 2: which is so fluky. In the one score games, you know,
45:13
Speaker 2: everything went right, even like going back to that Bengals game,
45:16
Speaker 2: you know Joe Burrow had the ball with the lead
45:18
Speaker 2: with about three minutes to go on a third and
45:19
Speaker 2: seven and didn't read a hot read and took a sack.
45:23
Speaker 2: Where it's like that game was lined up perfectly in
45:24
Speaker 2: the win and I think it was fourth and twenty
45:26
Speaker 2: they get a pass interference to get them in a
45:28
Speaker 2: field goal range for the Chiefs to win. Like if
45:30
Speaker 2: you go back to the last year, they had so
45:31
Speaker 2: many these weird freaking games they stole, so they're just
45:35
Speaker 2: I did bet their win total. But of those three,
45:37
Speaker 2: it's the third one. It's I like Raiders first Denver,
45:40
Speaker 2: then the Chiefs, and then once again nothing for me
45:43
Speaker 2: on the Chargers team. I assume the same for you.
45:45
Speaker 1: Chad Yep, zero couldn't do it. My list was Raiders
45:51
Speaker 1: over six and a half Chiefs Division but parleying it,
45:56
Speaker 1: and then Broncos Division. Even though it's much lower than
46:01
Speaker 1: it's been, it's still better to me than what you're
46:04
Speaker 1: getting with the Chargers. But Raiders six and a half
46:06
Speaker 1: was my favorite.
46:08
Speaker 2: All right, just sprinkle a little in fifteen to one
46:11
Speaker 2: Raiders just for the show. They're a little.
46:14
Speaker 1: Donny Scosh and Raiders.
46:15
Speaker 2: It could be fun. End this season.
46:17
Speaker 1: I love it. I'm in. I'm all in. Simon, listen,
46:20
Speaker 1: the favorites will return. Let me recap, let me recap.
46:24
Speaker 1: We just did it though. Raiders over six and a
46:27
Speaker 1: half Chiefs divisional odds for Simon, Broncos divisional odds for
46:32
Speaker 1: both of us. Although it's less value Raiders fifteen to
46:36
Speaker 1: one to win the conference. All right, The Favorites will
46:40
Speaker 1: return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Over
46:43
Speaker 1: YouTube page. When we talk n f C West, that's
46:46
Speaker 1: a burn burner of a of a division. We got
46:49
Speaker 1: a lot of controversy there. I know me and Simon
46:51
Speaker 1: are going to be on different sides of two of
46:53
Speaker 1: the top teams. Download us some Spotify, Apple Pods wherever
46:56
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46:59
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47:02
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