Latest / Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update / Our 12 Days of Christmas Wishlist for Markets | S2 E 110 | 12-22-25

Transcript

Our 12 Days of Christmas Wishlist for Markets | S2 E 110 | 12-22-25 · Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

• 0:00
  Megan Horneman: We just want to thank everyone for listening to our podcast this year.
• 0:04
  Megan Horneman: It's been an interesting year from an economic, from a market perspective.
• 0:08
  Megan Horneman: And we hope that we shed some light on some of those really interesting details that you get from not only a headline perspective, but also, you know, what everybody's talking about when it comes to the economy.
• 0:20
  Megan Horneman: And we wanted to leave you guys with our 12 days of Christmas.
• 0:24
  Megan Horneman: And what is that?
• 0:25
  Megan Horneman: Our 12 days of Christmas is that wish list we have for 2026.
• 0:30
  Megan Horneman: And let's be realistic.
• 0:32
  Megan Horneman: Some of these are not going to happen, but we do want to give that fun kind of wish list that you guys can take, maybe just some uh Christmas dinner tables and you can discuss this.
• 0:43
  Megan Horneman: But we'll start with the first day of Christmas.
• 0:45
  Megan Horneman: We would love one cohesive government, meaning that Democrats and Republicans get along.
• 0:51
  Megan Horneman: For the second day, we would love for that Japanese 10-year bond to stay below 2%.
• 0:58
  Megan Horneman: If you start to see a big increase in international bond yields, that does have ramifications globally, and we do see correlations.
• 1:07
  Megan Horneman: For the third day of Christmas, now this is not likely at all, but wouldn't it be nice to get three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve?
• 1:15
  Megan Horneman: We think maybe one, if that.
• 1:17
  Megan Horneman: But unfortunately, we don't think the Fed's going to come into the rescue and give us three rate cuts.
• 1:23
  Megan Horneman: The fourth day of Christmas, it would be wonderful to see four straight years of double-digit gains for the SP 500.
• 1:30
  Megan Horneman: We're on three straight years.
• 1:32
  Megan Horneman: If we go next year for a fourth, that would be fantastic.
• 1:35
  Megan Horneman: Five, who wouldn't want five golden rings, especially at$4,200 an ounce?
• 1:41
  Megan Horneman: The sixth day of Christmas, the housing market has been in a lot of distress.
• 1:45
  Megan Horneman: So we would love to see a mortgage rate below 6%.
• 1:48
  Megan Horneman: That would help from the affordable affordability perspective and maybe get some more lifeline into the housing market.
• 1:55
  Megan Horneman: The seventh day of Christmas, we are hopeful that consumer confidence can rise 7% for next year.
• 2:02
  Megan Horneman: We've had a lot of like very detrimental numbers from a consumer confidence perspective.
• 2:08
  Megan Horneman: It hasn't necessarily translated into spending, but consumers are feeling very strained.
• 2:14
  Megan Horneman: We would love to see a 7% increase in consumer confidence for next year.
• 2:19
  Megan Horneman: On the eighth day of Christmas, we would love for no higher than an 8% increase in the treasury debt.
• 2:27
  Megan Horneman: We tend to get, on average, about an 8% increase in treasury debt.
• 2:32
  Megan Horneman: Let's hope we don't get any more, even with the additional one big beautiful bill.
• 2:37
  Megan Horneman: We would love to keep that around 8%.
• 2:39
  Megan Horneman: That would be consistent with history.
• 2:41
  Megan Horneman: On the ninth day, we would love to see that the office commercial mortgage backed security delinquency rate stays at the around 9%.
• 2:52
  Megan Horneman: Right now it's at 10, and that's the highest level we've seen since the great financial crisis.
• 2:56
  Megan Horneman: So we'd love to see that notch down a little bit.
• 2:59
  Megan Horneman: That would help a lot from a real estate perspective.
• 3:03
  Megan Horneman: On the 10th day of Christmas, wouldn't it be nice to get 10% or more of earnings growth for the SP 500?
• 3:09
  Megan Horneman: Double-digit earnings growth consistently for multiple years is not that common.
• 3:14
  Megan Horneman: We'd love to get more of a double-digit increase next year.
• 3:19
  Megan Horneman: That will be the first time that we've seen that since the 2003 to 2006 time period.
• 3:26
  Megan Horneman: On the 11th day of Christmas, we would love for the government to settle in to around an 11% tariff rate.
• 3:38
  Megan Horneman: If we get more deals going on in the White House, we'd love to see that around 11%.
• 3:45
  Megan Horneman: That would not only bring in revenue for the government, but also help offset some of the one big beautiful bill tax breaks for consumers.
• 3:53
  Megan Horneman: On the 12th day of Christmas, as we say, we would love for the MSCI all-country world, excluding the U.S., to rise above that 12% or more.
• 4:04
  Megan Horneman: That will be above the historical average.
• 4:06
  Megan Horneman: And it would show you that there's diversification, that it does matter.
• 4:10
  Megan Horneman: And we are seeing some rotation into the international markets.
• 4:14
  Megan Horneman: Now we all we hope you have a wonderful holiday.
• 4:17
  Megan Horneman: This was just some fun around that 12 days of Christmas.
• 4:20
  Megan Horneman: Some things we're wishful for.
• 4:21
  Megan Horneman: We know they all won't come to fruition, but hey, it's fun to look at things and have some hope around this holiday season.
• 4:28
  Megan Horneman: Thank you so much.
• 4:29
  Megan Horneman: And if you want a history of our podcast, go to markets with Megan.