Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 4 Gambling Preview

Transcript

NFL Week 4 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say this is the fastest growing,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: most popular sports betting podcast in the country right now.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I am Chad milman On, the Chief Content Officer of
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. For those who are new to our
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: rapidly growing podcast audience, Action Network is a sports media
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: company that is focused entirely on serving the sports betting
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: audience everything you need to know from an analyst point
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: of view, whether that be the folks who go heavy
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: on research, heavy on data heavy and analytics, or they
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: are professional betters like my co host Simon Hunter. That's
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: where you can get from the Action Network. Check it
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: out Action network dot com. Follow us on Twitter at
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Action Network HQ. Listen to our other podcasts, Big Bets
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: on Campus for colleges, the Action Network podcast for NFL.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Download the free Action Network at You will get it all.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: And it's beautiful, especially this past week because Simon, Simon Hunter,
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: my bff, my compatrick, my companion, dude. We had we
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: had the good, we had the bad, we had the ugly.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: We went three and two in the five picks that
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: we feel best about, which is a win huge r O.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I how are you? How are you feeling? I feel
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: pretty optimistic as an Egos fan chat, I can't lie
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: to you. You wake up this morning. I can't listen
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: to radio. Usually that's my routine, especially after a bad loss,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: like to throw on the local radio. And just here
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: all these South Billy guys just cursing out this team.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I can't do it. Just embarrassed. Man, It's like shame,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: especially because we had in our contest. I just feel shame.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Like my initial read was so spot on. I got
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: duped by week one. I'm embarrassed. But you know, living
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: you learn it's my heart was too close to it.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: That's that that was the problem. Shane Shane Shane. I
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: love the Chicago Bears. We all know this. I was
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: all over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday and me and
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: you and Sean Crooner and Chris Raybon our show convinced
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: me that we do Sunday mornings eleven am at Action
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Network HQ. When we go over all the bets, you
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: guys give me your favorite bets. You try to convince
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: me what I should take. Pregame, we were talking about
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the Browns and the Bears, and I said to you, guys,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: I said, look, the Bears gonna get blown out of here.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Rookie quarterback who holds the ball against a pass rush
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that will pin its Ears back, and a coach who
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: is a coward, who does not know how to game plan,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: who refuses to acknowledge that this guy is more talent
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: than anybody else, and is losing the locker room because
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: everyone knows justin Fields gives him the best chance to win,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: and he is not willing to do anything about it.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And I thought, like Dan Orlovski on Get Up Yesterday,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: this is Tuesday afternoon on Get Up Yesterday, had this
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: rant about it was complete and total advocation of abdication
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: of responsibility by Matt Nagy of the Chicago Bears. I agreed,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I like I thought she should be fired after that game.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: He was terrible. That was a terrible, terrible display. Every
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: ex player that's talking about that game is just ripping
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: him apart. And that's all you need to know. I
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: mean that he has to have lost that out locker room.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: If all these ex players feel it that way, all
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: the players must all feel the exacting way inside the
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: locker room. Obviously, you probably didn't watch that game again.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I watched again because I enjoyed that game. I got
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the under that was that was a good game for me.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I think that was your under playing convinced Yes, that
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: was my biggest total bet of the day. And we
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: talked about why I like the under. Everything happened. We said,
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: we just didn't trust the rookie on the road and
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: all the inexperience. I thought it was just gonna be
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: a heavy running game for both teams. The Bears couldn't
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: do that. Um naggy though, Like again, I know you're
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: probably never gonna watch that game ever again. He literally
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: kept the same exact style of offense and Andy Dalton ran.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, you couldn't find two more different players than
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Fields and Andy Dalton. So yeah, as much as I
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: feel pity for me as an Eagles fan, I don't
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: compare to Bears fans. The Bears things just seems like
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: a whole train wreck. Well it's also it's a very
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: interesting thing about the NFL right now, and I want
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: to remind people we're gonna get to um the Simon
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: says bet where you say just better right away. This
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: past week it was the Cincinnati Bengals. UM and we
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: may get to a hornet's nest and then on Thursday
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: we'll do our big balls better the week. Um, but uh,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: betting the NFL is really challenging right now. We saw
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night we had the Niners minus three, three
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: huge pass interference calls that really set up the Packers
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: for success. And you are seeing holding penalties. You know,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: unconvinced me. Sean Kerner had mentioned that holding penalties have
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: increased to more than two a game. You're seeing it
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: on so many plays, but more than anything I said
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: this last week, the NFL is less and less about
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: cover your ass decision making. And it feels like the
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: only coach who's still doing cover your ass decision making
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: is Matt Nagy, who's living off a rep that he
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: got to coach for Andy Reid and be considered an
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: offensive genius, and it turns out he's afraid to make
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: any decision that isn't by the book, whereas every other
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: coach that the Browns game was perfect. Kevin Stefanski has
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: two different times on fourth downs in not advantageous field position,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: well he decides to go for it. Mattnegie has the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: same option twice and makes bad decisions about what the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Bears should do. Should they punt, should they go for it,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: should they kick a field goal? Should they go for it?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Makes the wrong decision every time. This is not a
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: cover yours decision making league anymore. And I think basically
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: we're talking about simple math here. Stevanski he went for
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: both times on fourth down right in in the Bears
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: red zone. So he just kicks field goals. That's six points.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Instead he goes one for two, he gets a touchdown,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: so you got one extra point. So again, simple math.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: People like that's why these coaches, it's like all these
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: analytic guys without do they know It's like, okay, it's
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: just basic math. You don't have to be some guy
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: that went to Harvard to figure out why these decisions
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: are different. But now you touch on the holding penalty stuff. Chat.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I think I went four and one on the unders
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I gave out. It was I think unders eleven and
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: five um last week. It's just the penalties, like the holding,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: it just kills drives. And we saw it all last week.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I think there was one over in the one PM
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: games and that was the Bills Washington games. So every
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: other game went under for the one PM slate, So
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: it's you can say what you want about the players
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: being sloppy. I think it has a lot to do
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: with these refs. They're kind of overcoming things, kind of
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: make a correction from last year where I mean last
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: year at this point, the overs were hitting out of
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: six clip so we've seen major regression in that position.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: But um, yeah, we'll talk about this upcoming week. It's
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the public had their day. Um, the public pretty much
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: dodged a bullet on the Ravens. Every guy I knew,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: every asshole in the world had them that the taking
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: the six off on a teaser and had the Ravens
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. Uh, they all had Denver
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: in their teasers. I mean every everything hit. The only
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: one that really tripped people up was the Chiefs. But
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: no one was betting the Chiefs really heavy to be
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. You know. That wasn't like a really big
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: money line parlay place. So I think we have major
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: regression coming up this weekend where we're due. We're so
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: overdue for a big upset like last year. We talked
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: about Chad the Jaguars Week one upset the Colts that
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: knocked out half of all the people our survivor contest.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: We haven't had that yet this year, and I mean
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: this is week four. We still haven't had a major upset.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna dive into the slate here. There are
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of red flags this week, so I'm excited
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: to break it all down. Yeah. On Thursday, we will
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: narrow down the field. We will talk about the games that,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: uh we liked the most from Tuesday, how lines have moved,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: how injuries have changed our perspective, how news has changed
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: our perspective. We'll talk about Survivor picks, We'll talk about
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: money line parlays. Today is the day we go through
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: the entire slate um our good, bad, and ugly from
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: this past week. We were on the sharpest from the beginning,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: nailed it. Uh. The ugly we has to be Miami,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: which we escaped with a win on that one. The
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: bad the Eagles were just trash and we made a bad,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: bad call on the Eagles at plus three and a half,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: plus four against the Cowboys. We're ready to move on.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: We're on to Cincinnati. Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Thursday night.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: The resurgent, amazing, Bengals the Cincinnati Bengals game roaring back
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: look aheadline, the line that was posted, you know, in
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: advance of games last week. The Bengals were two and
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: a half point favorites. The Bengals two and one win
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: over Minnesota win over Pittsburgh minus seven and a half.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Whoa Nana, damn it, chat, damn it? Why do we
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: have to keep betting the Jaguars? What? What is? This
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: is such a blessing and a curse in life. It's
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the truest thing I ever read with this. Um, I
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: hate it. I hate that we have to make this
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: bet because just look at the board. I love this
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: for our survivor pick. I mean again, we'll talk about
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. But Cincinnati, in what world do they lose
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: to this Jaguars team outscored probably fifty points to about
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: ten in the second half this year. Um, God, the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Jaguars are awful. I hate that you have to keep
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: betting on them. But you just talked about this line.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: The look at was minus two and a half. Now
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: they're up the minus seven and a half. Um, yikes.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Let me frame it this way though, So let's say
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: we're gonna bet on the Jaguars, and we did. Last
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: weekend we had the Jaguars plus seven and a half
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: at home against the Cardinals. I thought, if there's ever
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: gonna be a game the Jaguars win, this is going
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: to be it. Um, we're just cover Like that felt
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: like a guarantee cover kind of game. So the question
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: is this team has Owen seventeen written all over it.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: The coach stinks, the quarterback is young making bad decisions.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: That was a horrible pick six that really cost the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Jaguars the game and cost them the cover. Uh So
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: why do we have to bet the Jaguars. We don't
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: have to bet the game, by the way, like there's
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: it's a point where there is diminishing returns on this precedent.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: We decided where the Jaguars at the right side because
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: it's overvalued on the number moving so high. I don't
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: feel like I have to bet the Jaguars plus seven
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and a half. You don't, That's that's why you get
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: to live a good life chat. But as a professional
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I do, And I had this have four and a half.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I just did after the game with the Jaguars. No
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: way to I move this seven a half. So if
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: I think I'm getting three points of value. I bet
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: this number. Um, the Jaguars are terrible. Everything you said
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: it is so true, but since now is not as
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: good as people think they are. Um, they're actually our
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: best team right now for our competition. We're three and
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: oh and games involved in cincin that we picked them
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: twice and they won outright both ties for us, and
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: we faded them with the Bears and they lost. So
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I I do have a pulse on this team. It
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: feels like with Cincinnati. And again I talked to my
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Thursday nights, I usually go chalk. I usually do take
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: the favorite, especially home favorites. I'm not as scared of
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: it when it's a big number like this, but I
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: have to This is just it's inflated number, and this
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: is just a backdoor game. The Bengals defense is not
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: good enough to be favored by this many points. And
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: Lawrence he's bad right now. I mean, we haven't talked
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: about it yet. I believe rookies are one in ten
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: against the spread this season, and the only cover was
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: a rookie playing a rookie, and Mac Jones beaten. Um
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: it was Zach Wilson. So I don't know, Chad. I'm
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: not gonna make people do it, but this is my life.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: That's like, these are the games I have to bet
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: because I mean, I do it enough. This is a
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: six kind of situation where you're just taking a team
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: that their own three, their own three against the spread.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: We saw last year too, We talked about this, the
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Jets and the Cowboys. They didn't cover for five six
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: weeks to start the year. So I'm not making people
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: better this. We're not putting this in our contest either,
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Like I'm so out, but we're gonna be talking Thursday.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: This might end up when our survivor picks, because I
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: just don't see a world where the Bengals don't win
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: this game at home on a short week against the awful,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: awful coach at Irban. My So, when you think about
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: this game and I want to move on to the
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: next game, but uh, it's a game that's disgusting. It's
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: a game that you can't find any tangible reason for
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: the way the teams are playing to really have confidence
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: in the Jaguars, but you feel like you have to
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: bet it. You're a professional better You've got to take
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: every opportunity to make as much money as you can
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: in these five or six months. So you're betting sides,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: you're betting totals, you're betting money lines, etcetera, etcetera. The
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: jack Sings isn't balancing their way though. That's the thing.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Like no, but here's my question. Here's my question. How
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: much do you end up betting on this game, like
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: as a percentage of bank roll in like the the
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: If you're normally betting, say two to three units on
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: a game, is this a one unit bet? How do
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: you determine what that is if you feel like you
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: have to bet it because the opportunities to make money
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: on the right plays is limited. It's all situational to
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: all I told you last week, like we do that
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: convinced me meeting on Friday. My two biggest bets on
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Friday were the Chargers one out right and the Jaguars
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: who got smoked. So it is UM all about situation
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: and where alm angling at. But again that's the hardest
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: part where it's like I had a good day because
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of those unders hit and I hit big
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: on the Rams and I hit big on the Vikings,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: two teams. I really liked UM that day, but I
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: gave a lot of it back one day night because
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: we talked about I took the Eagles plus four and
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: a half. I took the Eagles plus four. I took
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: him at three and a half. So that's the hardest
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: thing where this Jaguars because they've been so bad. Yeah,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not. I mean say I had up close to
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: like ten K last week on them on the spread
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: and then probably another like two or three km their
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: money line, like involved in bets like that. At most,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I'll put five K on this spread. I'm just it's
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: one of those as a professional about this because there's
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: value on this line, but I'm not betting it big
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: again because I, like we just talked about, I thinks
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: something just wrong. They're like they're literally driving at the
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: end of the game to get this this back door
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: and Robinson fumbles it in the red zone, and it
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: just felt like every little thing that could have gone
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: wrong with the Jaguars kind of did, even though they
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: had that kick return at the end of the half.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: It's it's bad there. I honestly like I wasn't giving
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: you much credit for how you were saying you think
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Urban was gonna leave for usc. Every game that goes by,
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: you see wearing on this guy. I mean, if they
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: do start oh and seven, I think he leaves still. Yeah.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints. The Giants the
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: New York Football Giants. UH lost at home to the
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Falcons as favorites. UH. The one time we decided not
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: to bet on the Falcons because we've had enough, Even
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: though we knew it was the right side, we walk
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: away because we don't have courage of our convictions. They
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: are visiting the Saints. The Saints or seven and a
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: half point favorites. Ah, this feels wildly inflated to me,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: wildly inflated. There's no reason to be making Jameis Winston
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: a more than touchdown favorite. I can't. I can't buy
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: into this team with him as the quarterback. I just
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: can't do it. We really wish it was still plus
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. That was a beautiful number one.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I opened at that, so I'm not shocked all it's
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: been bent down to seven a half. This is like
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: you just talked about, it's way too big of a
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: number for Winston that at any moment that guy drops back,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: you're expecting to pick six. So I love Daniel Jones
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: on the road. I would have to go on bet
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: labs and look it up. I believe he's like ten
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: and five against the spread on the road in his career.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: So we we take Danny Dimes on the road, we
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: fad him at home, and it's been working out for
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: US ten and four on the road against the spread.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Uh five four Leadin at home against the spread. I
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: mean there there it is people who follow those trends.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: But there's something about the Saints that at it. I wasn't.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: I just wasn't that impressed with them against the Patriots.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: I thought the Patriots were who we expected them to be, right,
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: they were a team that struggled against a not as
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: good a team as we thought they would be in Miami,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: dominated team that is every bit as bad as we
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: thought they would be in Miami. Yeah, played a team
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: in the Saints that is good in the trenches and
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: as a quarterback who still makes really, really really incredibly
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: bad decisions, and that's never gonna change. Jamis is as
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Jamis does. I do worry about the Giants injuries. Their
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: defense is a little bit tattered right now. Yeah, Uh,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: that's that's true, but we we talked about last week
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: that was such a look ahead for New England, the
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: same reason we really were off the Bucks. It was
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: just both teams are looking ahead to to this Sunday
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: when they're playing each other. So the Saints, I really
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: can't get a read on them. I don't know what
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: they are because they were so like thoroughly dominated by Carolina.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe is that legit? You said that the Giants they
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: do have major injuries on their defense. But at the
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: same time, I mean I I believe in the Giants
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: team in the sense that they kind of always and
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: keep these ugly games close. We've we've seen it with
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: them to start the year. I mean, the Denver one
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: was was brutal, but that was weak one. They've they've
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: fought off in their last few games. So I'm not
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: gonna make you put it in, Chad, but that's it's
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be on our list, Buddy. Seven and a half.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: That's that's too many points for Winston to be favorite
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: in a game. Oh Jesus Christ, I was thinking we'd
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: immediately not be having a conversation about the Giants being
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: on a list. Uh, And now I have to square
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: it because you think it will be. I'd be shocked
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: if we come to a consensus that the Giants are
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: on our Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles the last
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: place Kansas City Chiefs are going on the road two
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Fly Eagles Fly. They're visiting the Eagles off of
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: a horrible primetime loss in which I really feel like
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: they gave back all the good will that you and
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I gave them the first week of the season. Uh,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: seven and a half point dogs at home is a
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: huge number for a Chiefs team that has really not
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: heard in its last I think they're one and ten
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: against the spread in the last eleven games each Dad
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: down by the way open eight and a half and
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: now it's seven and a half, and you know you
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: have to bet the Egos. This is typical um embarrassing
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: on our primetime game. I think they're horrible, their old
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: lines all banged up. There is no logical reason to
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: take the egostra other than the fact that they're not
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: as bad as they looked against Dallas um Man. The
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Chiefs though, this this is like the game everyone's gonna
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: having teasers, Like, in what world do you see that?
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Patrick mahomessing three straight games. I don't think it's ANFL career.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: He's ever lost three straight games. Um man, scary, scary,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: scary game. This one, Uh pretty much feels like, yeah,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: what did this? This? I think original was six. Now,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: like you said, I went to eight and a half.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Down down seven a half. This is gonna be like
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: a week. We're gonna talk about a bunch of these games.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: It's one of the biggest descriptions of pros versus shows
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of these games, and this is a classic
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: example of every professional I know. It doesn't matter what
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: your opinion is on the EGNS. You bet this. You
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: bet this game seven and a a half at home against
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: the team that is got major issues right now, I
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: know the US had major shoes too. Something's wrong with
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They just don't look right like my homes
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: looks human. He doesn't look super human like he did
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: the last couple of years. So you said it, Chad,
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: we we have to take this number. This is just
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: what we do. What do you have it rated at?
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: I thought it was good when it opened at six.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I thought that was like I had that as a number.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna moved to half a point. Um,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: with the injuries, the egos have hal now to the
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: old line, so I had to I think I'm up
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: to six and a half now. But seven a half
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: is perfectly understandable, just because the sports books need to
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: protect against teasers, and that's what this number is. This
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: is a kind of a protection against teasers. So it's
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: it's scary times right now in Philadelphia. Chat, I'm not
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: gonna lie to this. This guy's here around. It might
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: be a complete disaster. Why do you say that? What
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: did you see that makes you say that he's just dumb? Um? Honestly,
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: we Miles Sanders has two carries and I both carriers
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: go for like I think one carry was fifteen yards,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: like carriers for seven yards. Those are only two carries
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: the entire game. Uh, that game was one of again
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: he does little things where you just like, this guy
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: doesn't get it. And you talked about with um the
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: fancy going for fourth down. It was fourth and five
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: in midfield, Eagles for down twenty to seven at halftime,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: he punted, Um, Okay, this guy doesn't get it. If
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: you can get points there, so you can even get
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: three points, it would literally be twenty seven to ten.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Then we got the Eagles will get the ball start
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: the second half. He didn't do that. We punted. It
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: was twenty seven to start the second half, and he
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: throws a pick six first drive and that's the ball game.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: So I just think he's dumb, he's aired, he's overthinking things,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and he's not gonna be a head coach for more
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: than a year for this Eagles team. Everything I've seen
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: for this guy, he's a good rally, rally guy, he's
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: an assistant. This guy is not a head coach. So
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: that's that's why I'm so out on this Eagles team.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: But at this number, I gotta bite the bullet. I
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: gotta take this just because this is so inflated. And
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: we talked that, uh, how many times have we faded
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs and it's worked out for us. It feels
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: like every time. So we have to keep it going
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: until they until they win to cover a couple of
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: games in a row. We'll just keep going against the
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Chiefs and making money. I don't think anybody listening can
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: sens any bias against the coaches that are leading our
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: hometown teams in the Bears and the Eagles. There's nothing
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: yeah victriolic about any of these language. Houston Texans at
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. The Texans are on the road, sixteen and
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs to Matt Mitchell's looking amazing, turning
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: the tide, clearly getting over their issues from week one.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. The Bills make men. You can something, throw
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: your hand on something, throw your hand back, and come
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: on now the Bills. I'm thinking it happen now. This
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: moved so I opened a fourteen. It's up to sixteen
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: and a half. Interestingly, the betting tickets are fifty one
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: forty nine in favor of the Texans right now. Yeah,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: easy opinion. These either stay away, you take the Bills.
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: Uh cannot take David Mills on the road. This this
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: kid cannot put the drives together. If it's third and five,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: it might as well be third and twenty for this kid.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: It's just Houston is a train wreck. The only reason
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: we were in on them was because Tarad is just
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: a solid quarterback and affect these out. I cannot trust
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: a rookie making his first start on the road. Uh,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: let alone this one. So yeah, I'm either gonna be
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: on the Bills or I'm just gonna be passing this game.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to talk about it that much.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: It's going to be the corner TV game right Like,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of Bills fans, I get it, but
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: there's not enough Texas fans that the books are going
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: to think, Oh, this is a game that is attracting
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: people's attention. Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys. My favorite team,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers four and a half point underdogs on
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: the road against the Dallas Cowboys. This to me is
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: a must bet Panthers and must play. We have to
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: put this one in. Cowboys have looked good and actually
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: a little side play. I've already bet the under in
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: this game as well. Dallas has played well. Doc has
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: played incredibly smart since he's been back, not taking too
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: bigger hits, making the right reads, throwing the right passes.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Carolina's defense looks for real. I know that McCaffrey injury
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a big deal, and you know we're
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: all waiting for the shooter drop on Sam Donald. This
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: just doesn't seem like a situation where it's gonna fall
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: apart for them. They have everything rolling they've had the
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: extent of time because they played there is a last
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: week Cowboys are feeling themselves. This line will be inflated
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: because of all the Cowboy loyalists bet in this lineup. Yeah,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: we're taking this number, and it's interesting. These are both um,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: I think they're the last two teams that are undefeated
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: against the spread or no denvers as well. So yeah,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: this is where might be playing on fire here. But
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep Ryan with a hot hand in riding
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: Carolina because I just can't see their defense really again
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: blown out. And this is just a really good situation
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: where the Cowboys just had a huge, huge win and
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the visional arrival. Now there's a big letdown game the
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: following week, so we we like this number a lot.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: I've definitely I'm not doing it right now, but um,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a decent amount invested on the money
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: line of Carolina. So if you want to make this
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: my sigmon says played chat out, I don't hate it.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: Signon says sign do go. But the Panthers plus four
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: and a half this felt like an obvious one for
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: all the reason. As you just said, I do worry
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I do worry a little bit that
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: we have consistently undervalued the Cowboys. They looked much much
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: better in the opening night game than we thought they would.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: They looked much much better last night. Their defense seems
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: to have more speed, They fly around the ball. Mike
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: McCarthy is still a horrible decision maker, and in a
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: game like this, this might be the difference between the
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Cowboys winning and losing. Um So, I do have a
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: lot of confidence. I think Matt Rules an incredible coach.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: We started seeing this last year. We've also talked about
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: how the opportunity to find value on a team like
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: the Panthers waynes much more quickly because there's more people betting,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: more people seeing how well they're doing. So it's changing
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: their power wading for bookmakers. But this is a spot
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: where I do think you're getting a little bit of value.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Um So, Cowboys. Sorry, if you boys your minds three,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: I'd probably be on them. That's what I had this
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: game at. It's just the fact that you can get five,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: four and a half a different books right now. That's
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: it's just an inflated line. So that's why it's not
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: that I hate the Cowboys. It's just the line just
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: isn't favored their way. I neglected to ask you two
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: things you just mentioned. You already got the under on
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: this game. The total on the Panthers Cowboys is fifty
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: and a half. UM. We have gone through Jack's Bengals.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: The total on that is uh forty five and a
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: half UM. Any immediate thoughts there? Yeah, I did the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: over for the Bengals again. I think the Bengals defensive suspect,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I think the Jaguars defensive suspect Saints Giants was forty three.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Have you done that? Nah? Eagles Chiefs was fifty four
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. Have you done that? About the under?
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: But it's just it's literally a fade against Hurts. It's like, okay,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: this this offense might be broken for this Eagles team
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: they had, I know they had a flukey touchdown or
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: two at the end of there, but their offenses, like again,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: they scored eleven against the forty niners and they would
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: have scored seven against the Cowboys in a full game.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: It was that last flukey touchdown. So I like the
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: under in that one. Texans Bills, did you do that yet?
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: That's actually took again? Took the under. People hate it,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: but I'm an under guy. Um took the under again
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: And now a word from our friends at Fandel. The
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: NFL is back and Fandel's Sports Book wants you to
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: get the most out of every play. That's why they're
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: giving everyone a ten dollar risk free bet every week.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is better same game parlay
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: beat with three legs or more, and if you your
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: bet doesn't win, Fando will pay you back up to
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: ten dollars. For example, this Thursday, I'm considering the Bengals
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: money line, the under and Joe Burrow passing yards over.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Just look for SGP icons on any matchup and you'll
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: know it's eligible for same game parlast I love betting
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: at Fandel because it's America's number one sports book app.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: I get paid out fast one and I win and
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: there's no feeling like the same game parlay bet. So
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: locking your best today on FanDuel Sports Book and get
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: up to ten backs back if your bet doesn't win.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: New to Fandual Sports Book, They're also offering a risk
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: free one thousand dollar bet if you prefer that to
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: sign up with promo code Favorites, and if your first
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: bet loses, you get up to one thousand dollars back
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: in pite credit at promo code. Favorites must be one
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: and over and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, New
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: Jersey to Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. Refunds issued as
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: non withdrawal site credit that expires in seven days max
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: refund ten dollars. Restrictions apply see terms at sports books.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Got FanDuel dot com Same game parlays available for multiple
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: sports in all states on both mobile and web. Gambling
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: problem called one eight gambler or visit FanDuel dot com
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: slash r G in Colorado, New Jersey, Virginia one eight
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: nine with it in Indiana one eight seven zero seven
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: on seven for confidential help in Michigan one eight hundred
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: eight eight nine nine in Tennessee. Visit what eight hundred
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia or call one next
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: step or a text next step to five two in Arizona.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. How quickly lines come
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: out Sunday night, last come out Monday morning? How many
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: bets do you think you make in the first twenty
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: four hours of lens are open every take? But again
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: it's all small, like a couple couple hundred dollars here,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: maybe two hundred here, and maybe a couple of fifty here,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: and then one or two couple of thousand dollar bets
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: just because the books limit, like they Lemon told about
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: Wednesday Thursday, how much you can get down? All right,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings. It looks like I'm seeing
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: a couple of different things, anywhere from one and a
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: half to two and a half. The Browns are favored,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: the Vikings at home getting points. You should have listened
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: to me last week. We love the Vikings and dogs
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: at homes chat hop on the train. Baby, why didn't
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: we do it? I don't remember what happened. I said,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I said, what we have to do one neither the
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: rams or them. We end up going to rams, which
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: didn't matter. Um, yeah, we we love. We talked about
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: it last week. Zermers. A dog at home has just
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: been so profitable to us over the years. This is
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: a typical game where we see this being a shootout
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: because Cleveland's defense again, they're improved, but Houston was running
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: all over them. They're passing all over them the same
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: way as the Chiefs it was more about the Bears
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: just having a let down game. So I like the
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: Vikings and I like the over. In this game, the
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: over has moved six points. Oh my god, never mind. Then, Yeah,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: I hit that. I hit that Sunday night. That's shocking.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: It's moved that much. I mean it moved from forty
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to the fifty three and a half. Yeah,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: so I got a fourty and a half. Wow. Wow,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: that's that's so the pros have hit that. Um, stay away, people,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: that's scared. That's scary. That's a lot of money to
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: move at that many points. Big, that's officer bigly, That's
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: that's crazy. Look, I think you're a hundred percent right
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: about the ounds. I think there's vikings defense can get
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: after it. I think that um that the Browns benefited
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: from looking so good against a terrible, terrible, terrible Bears team,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: And now you can look at the Vikings and say, Okay,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: they lost to a Bengals team that might be better
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: than we think. Yeah, they lost to a Cardinals team
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: on a flute play that might be better than we think.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: So all of a sudden, the Vikings being one and
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: two and being sort of a a underdog at home
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: that's undervalue makes a lot more sense. I'm gonna teaser
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: again too, if you're scared to take the stummach of people,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: haven't having the vikings last week plus eight and a
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: half at home was never, never in doubt. So that's
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: how I feel again this week you have them over
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: a touchdown in a teaser, because that plus two right now? Fame?
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Do I believe you take that in a teaser? But
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: for us, straight up, I have no problem taking this
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: love a lot and this is uh, this is like
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: you just said, there's too much faith being put into
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: this Browns team that shut down a rookie quarterback making
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: us first start on the road. I mean that game
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: got a lot of attention. Oh yeah, I mean people
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: are gonna talk about that all week. I mean, the
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Naggy drama. It's just that's content king for all these channels.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: But the way, here's my sid um and bubble head
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Dog still the greatest quarterback in Chicago Bears history. But
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: I believe in Justin Fields not saying I don't. I
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: don't believe Matt Aggie. I am saying that right now.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: We're already talking about like in the Giants plus seven
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: and a half, even though that's never gonna last into Thursday.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: We like the Vikings plus two and a half. Um
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: and we like the Eagles plus seven and a half.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: This is grow it's only about the worst chat you
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: don't want to know to be my biggest beats this
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: week so far, they're coming up. Oh god, well we
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: we also, by the way, we already decided that the
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Panthers plus four and a half, as our signing says
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: better the week, So go bet it. Take a little
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: of the money line to a little bit to a
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: half the unit of the money line. Detroit Lions at
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears. The game opened it Lions plus five and
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: a half down to Lions really plus two and a half.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Of course, we take the Bears, your Chad, the same
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: reason we took the Bears against Cincinnati at home. The
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Bears always play better at home. You're never gonna have
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: a time in the season where the Lions won't be
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: more overvalued. Uh, they should have won last week. The
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: bookmakers are kind of counting as a win. The bettors
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: are counting as a win. They've coming heavy on the
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Lions and they've completely tossed out the Bears. I'm not
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: making anyone bet this. There's no chances between our contests.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: This is a pros versus show's game. The only logic
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I can give you for taking the Bears. They're not
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: as bad as they look against Cleveland. It's like we
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: talked about, it felt like sabotage by Naggie. I know
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: it's not. I know, like that's just crazy conspiracy theorists
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: as a fan, but man like you literally watched the game.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: He didn't change a single thing from Andy dlt offense
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: to Justin fields even though they're completely different styles. Terrifying, terrifying, terrifying.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: So I will betting the Bears. By if someone came
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: to me and said, hey, I've I've taken the lines,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: I've put them in a teaser as well, good good bet.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Because this is I I have zero confidences betting this.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: I'm just betting simply the number that this should be
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: minus three and a half. It's minus three minus two
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: and a half. I take the Bears. I will say
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: one thing. I think that the Lions are tougher and
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: better than anyone who's giving them credit for. And we
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: all made fun of Dan Campbell. We all made fun
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: of the biting the kneecaps thing um. But this team, Look,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: they came back strong against the Niners in Week one,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: never stopped. We're the only ones that bet down on
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: that game. Better mid eight and a half, they played
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the Packers really, really well until Jared Goff realized the
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: ball was wet. They went toe to toe, punching the
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Ravens in the mouth. You know, I love these underdog
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: like parlays. I had the lines in there that would
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: have been a great hit for me, But as soon
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: as Tucker came out. I don't know about you, but
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: I was just like, there's no way that he misses this.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: It's just that guy is one of a kind. God,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: I hate kickers chat. They affect so much money in
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: my life. The total in this game for the Bears
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: lines is forty two and a half. Again another one.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: I'll be eire on the under. I won't bet it.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans at New York Jets right now, this game
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: move from the Titans three and a half the Titans
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. This is this is where you
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: have to reach deep down into your soul, pull up
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: your courage to bet the New York Jets. And if
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: you tell me this is you're gonna be your biggest bet.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: If you tell me right now, your biggest bet is
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: on the New York Jets. I may have to turn
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: off the zoom. It's not but it's pretty close. Take
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: the points, take the money line. This is like one
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: of my favorite upsets of the day. Jets are winning
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't know how. Nothing makes sense. Love
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: love love love, love, love love love. The Jets in
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: this position are in the foxhill. I'm calling it right now,
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Right now, let's climb down into the foxhole. You and
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I are in the foxhill together on the New York
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: Football Jets. That's terrible. It is You're you're looking for logic, people,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: There is no logic behind this bet. The Jets are horrible,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: their old lines banged up. Their quarterback is bad, bad,
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: bad bad. Uh. This number is huge. This is a
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: way too big of a number for a Tennessee team.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: That okay, huge upset win over the Seahawks. Then they
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: come home, they get a big win against division arrival
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: on the Colts, which the coult have owned that the
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: last couple of years. So that is a huge, huge
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: win for Tennessee Titans. Now they're going on the way
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: to play a Jets team that I don't think they
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: scored single point against Denver Um. Yeah, Chad, this is gross.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: This is right up my alley. This is this is
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: what I love to do, suffer and pain. These rookies
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: cannot keep not covering the like eventually tide has to turn.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: This is insane. Vegas has given us a lot of
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: a lot of points here. They're given us a lot
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: of value to say, please, someone save us and bet
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: us with the Jets. And I'm that guy. Um, I
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: promise you right now, I won't put this on convinced
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: me because I feel so terrible with the Jags, But
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: this is this is one of my favorite bets of
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: the week, the Jets plus seven a half. Jesus Christ,
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: something's gotta knock on these people and survivor contest like,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be some crazy upsets this This has to
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: be one on on the board. I mean, Zack Wilson.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: You jumped off that Zack Wilson bandwagon pretty quickly, because
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: three or four weeks ago you're talking about how you
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: think he's the best of the rookie class. Still do um.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: He's just not putting position to concede. I mean my
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: early reads were spot on. Mac Jones. Ain't that good.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence not in a good position right now. The
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: head coaching is terrible. Uh, we'll see the justin fields thing,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: you know. I feel about that. Ohio State doesn't produce quarterbacks.
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: The Bears can't draft quarterbacks. Uh. Tray Lance right now,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I think he's like third for Rookie of the Year
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: because he's not playing. That's that's all you have to
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: say about this rookie class right now. That's how bad
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the rookie classes. Trey Lance has been in for like
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: three plays adowns, all touchdowns, and he's third in the
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: year in Rookie of the Year balloting. Yeah, in Rookie
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: of the Year odds. Oh my god, that's so true.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Cults at Miami Dolphins. Dolphins are very short home
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: favorites here. These are not very good teams. These are
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: teams that that are not living up to any of
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: the expectations that we had before the season began. The
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: total in this game is forty three and a half
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: right now, which dropped three and a half points from
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know about this one. Simon bet Miami, I
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: bet the over. Bet to pass for me. Uh, probably
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: won't have more than two to three in this game.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: Do not want to watch it, don't care about it,
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: Not gonna learn anything from it. Path Washington football team
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: at Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons who we have loved, loved, loved,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: and then the one week we know we love them
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: but are too scared of that, then they cover a
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: short favorite. I don't think this Washington football team is
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: good enough to be a road favorite, but I don't
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: think this Atlanta Falcons team is good enough to be
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: a winner in the NFL. Yeah, that's what that. We're
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: simply taking Washington just because we don't believe Atlantic can
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: went back to back game. Washington is a more complete team.
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: They have a defense that can. Again, the defenses look horrible,
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: but I still have faith in that defense being like,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: get stops when they need to. It's gonna be a
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: big difference going from Josh Allen, a guy who's playing
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: m VP level to Matt Ryan, who, man, did he
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: look bad against the Giants in that game. It's crazy
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: they end up winning and covering that game. I like Washington.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: I like to get heineyke. It's it's not the very
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: pro of me to not take the home dog. But
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: they're certain situations where I just don't do it, and
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: this is one of them where I just like you
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: just said, I can't back to Stlanta team. I don't
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: trust that coaching. I don't trust the offensive scheme. I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: like Washington to bounce back here. It's not pro of
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: you at all to take the short road favorite against
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: and especially with the defense isn't just not very good,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: Like their secondary is terrible. And we thought this front
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: four for Washington would get some kind of pressure. They're
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: not getting any Uh. They look mediocre to bad. Um.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: I think I thought they had a chance to get
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: the bills. You didn't. You correctly predicted, Matt Mitchell correctly
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: predicted this would be a blowout. Josh Allen, MVP game.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Congrats who you guys are right? Um, I'm more curious
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: about how bad the Falcons offenses were. If Matt Ryan,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley, and Arthur Smith, they're terrible. And do you
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: want to touch on that Washington defense real quick? They
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: look pretty good against Herbert week one. I think that
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: they only end up with what points uh the Chargers
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Week one Daniel Jones. Obviously that was kind of anomaly.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: It was a Thursday night short week. He ran the
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: ball over them and then they played Josh Allen. I
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: guy we're talking about for m v P. So I
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: am with people. I get all the hate Washington's defense
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: is getting right now, but I'm just not ready to
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: be like, Okay, these guys aren't that good and they're
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: pretty terrible. Um, this is just a really nice bounce
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: back spot. So that's why I just like Washington. I've
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: been I've seen this movie before. That's what it feels
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: like where you know, I'm starting to feel a Lanta again.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: I feel good after they got to win from me
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: outright and a cover. No, I'm not getting sucked back in.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Washington. You just got the crack
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: pictoubtible by the way, literally as I'm talking, because we've
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: talked about this, I've got all the odds, I've got
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: everything in front of me looking at the Action Network.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: UM page that just came in on the Washington football
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: team decent size bet No, oh my god, that would
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: have been insane. No I did send that out the
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: clients though, Oh my god, that's so crazy. Which was
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: it for I don't even I can't tell you how
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: much it was. I don't have I don't see it.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: I just know that the number moved. Okay, that is wild.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: I love that line. Church, Uh, Seahawks. Let's see here.
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: We are now going to the four Cloud Games, Seattle
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: Seahawks at San Francisco. Forty Niners. Oh gosh, oh gosh,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: this line has moved to a key number. It was
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: nine ers three and a half. It is now Niners
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half. For the love of God,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: for the love of all that is holy, I want
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: to take the Niners so badly here, but I'm very
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: concerned about that secondary and Russell Wilson, if he does anything,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: drops bombs and the number of past interference penalties against
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the Niners and the rookie DBS gives me payings, and
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: now it's impacting how I think about betting. Yep, we're
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: going chalk the Mahomes. Just like Russell Wilson. This would
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: be his third straight loss. If he loses this game.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: We do not live in a world Russell Wilson will
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: lose three straight games. We will be taking the chalks
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: the plus two and a half. We will take the
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Seahawks here, but you're saying we'll take the chalk, and
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: then you're saying we'll take Seattle. Seattle's plus two and
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, it's chalk though they're the public dog.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: They're one of the public dogs of the week. I
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: bet you all the money's coming on the Seahawks. People
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: are thinking just like us. That's why the lines moved
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: so much. That's the Chalky play taking Seahawks. But I'm
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: cool that I like them in this position. Like Chad
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: just talked about the secondary and Jimmy Jimmy g Man,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: he just makes some decisions where it's like, why don't
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: why not just put Trey Lanson and just get this
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: party started. We know we're not winning Super ol. Jimmy
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: j Well, there are plenty of times the other day
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: where it looked like this team isn't as an athletic,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: isn't athletic enough to miss opera oportunities, And Jimmy g
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: just couldn't do certain things that trade Lance could, especially
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: in short down situations. We're aligned. I was confused because
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I've never heard the term chalk used for an underdog.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: I've always only heard it used for favorites, but the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: way you used it was really for whoever is getting
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: the most bets this week, and so that makes sense.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I can live with that. Yeah. And it's like the
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: guy you go to the gas station, you know, he said,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: who do you like this week? Fort or Seahawks. It
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: was like Seahawks by two touchdowns. So that's why I
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: just feel like the Chalky play. It's like people are
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: just out on the fourty niners, you know, the old
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: gas station test. It's my favorite one. I get it.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams. The other NFC West matchup,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals on the road. You're getting this at about
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Rams minus four and a half. Tough game, Uh, scary
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: backdoor game. But I'll be on the Rams, but don't
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: feel confident enough to make it's one of our best
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: five and it'sxactly one of my bigger bets either. Um
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Murray is playing at a really high level right now.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: The Cardinals they have major issues on that defense, but
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: with this offense, they're always gonna be in it. They
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: just have so many weapons. So I do like the
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: Rams because I just like their defense be able to
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: get stops, but I can't be confident enough to make
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: this one of our best five. A little bit of
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: approse Joe split here. The bets are on the Rams,
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: the money on the Cardinals. It's because he opened at
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: six like that was a good number, taking the Cards
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: at that number, So now it's dropped way down to
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: four and a half. So I bet you by the
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: time the game gets closer, the money is definitely gonna
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: be shifted towards the Rams. Yeah, everything about me says
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: everything about this game screams take the Rams. It really
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: does this to me. This is this is a we
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: don't know who these Cardinals are yet, right, and um,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: the way they beat Titans, the way they beat the Jags,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: the way they beat the Vikings different ways kind of
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: dominated the Titans in a way nobody expected. Got lucky
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: against the Vikings, a team that may be better than
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: we think, and they held them off. So credit to them.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Won an ugly game as a big road favorite that
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: they should get credit for, which had flukey plays um
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: that normally leads to not just losing against the spread,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: but losing the game out right. They did all the
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: right things. They did the things the winning team does,
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: and we know Cliff Kingsbury can win in September and October.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: That's how I want to stay away. Like, like you
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: just said, everything points to their rams. But everything you
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: just said is why it's like, but the Cardinals are
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: in this they're a good team. So just for me,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: it's it's too tight to really bet a lot of
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: money on this one. Have we gotten to the game
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: that is your biggest bet of the weekend? At Pittsburgh
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Steelers at Green Bay Packers. The Steelers are seven point underdogs.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Pro games add pro game. You take the good defense
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh to bounce back. Roethlisberger is a moving corpse.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers is playing like an m v P. Again.
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you people, Uh, do your thing, go
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: do your teasers, do whatever you want. With Green Bay,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be me and three other guys be in Pittsburgh.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: This is like the same thing with Miami last week.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Doesn't make any sense. The number doesn't make any sense.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: But we bet the number and we take the value,
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: and you know, we hope that on fourth and nineteen
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: Roethlisberger somehow converts it and gets us a backdoor cover
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: because he he looks like he should retire. He he
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: doesn't not look like a quarterback that you still still
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: be playing. So it's a terrifying game. I just had
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: to tell people, like I had this rate up four
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: and a half, it's alway up to seven six and
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: a half. Now, that's why I take Pittsburgh here. But
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: it's it's disgusting. I hate that I have to bet
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: this game, but I have to. There's no way we're
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: putting in this game in our contests. No, there's I look,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: there's a bunch of games I like way more. Well,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: we're getting down to it, like there's not that many
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: games left and right now we're looking at Giants plus
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, Eagles seven and a half, Panthers
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: four and a half, Bikes two and a half. I
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: don't think we're putting the Bears minus two and a
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: half in the Jets plus eight in there. So like
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: we're not giving ourselves a ton of options on the menu.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Do you know what I'm saying, Don't don't be so quick.
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: You're those Jets though, all right, well we'll think about it. Yeah,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: if you want to take Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: I'm here for you. Jet. Look, Mike Tomlin is a
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Rob Rock coach. There in a raw rock spot. They
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: need to win. What ra ra Mike Tomlin spot. We
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: win the game with the pool bodies right here today,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: bring all the game to day. They're going into enemy
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: territory in a big game against the best quarterback in football.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: This is exactly the spot where you take the Steelers.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: It's Rob Rob, Mike, Rob Rob Mike. Let's hear it
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: from you, Mike. Let the greatest of all time. Look
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: at your work, all right. Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Broncos light slight home favorites. Oh goodness, this is this
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: is it the biggest bet of the day by far.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Love the Broncos. I got on the train last week
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: with Lamar and he burned me. This is not a
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: team below five hundred has an incredibly legit defense, and
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: then they've had a lot of injuries at the wide
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: receiver position, which is scary with Teddy Bridgewater like his
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: only guy left to Sutton. Lets still have no offense
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: and they still have a two headed horse in that's
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: running game. And we've seen Baltimore is not can't overcome
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: all these injuries. So you're telling me we're getting a
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: team that's getting barely ad the money any of the
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: tickets in Denver at home Milahai. I love it, Chad,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: love it, love it, love it. This is guaranteed to
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: be locked in one of our five this game. The
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: way the tickets are trending right now, I would not
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: be surprised what the Ravens are if this flips like
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: the like the Bucks and the Rams last week, Like
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: ultimately on Sunday, we're gonna be betting on the Broncos
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: is under ducks because I've already like I've already seen
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: it where this is a This is one of the
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: bigger bets earlier the week on teasers. People are really
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: laying into the Baltimore Ravens. They're getting them up to
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: six and seven and a half seven right now, So
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: be careful of people. This feels like a good trap
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: here with the Ravens, the Broncos with Teddy Covers. You
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: know how I feel about him, and I feel like
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: we've made mistakes and not bagging him more. He's three
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: and notes this year, Like what the hell were you
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: doing show. Honestly, sometimes what you see in front of
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: you is what it is. You don't have to fool yourself.
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: Sometimes we do that. We fools like we wrote them.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, I learned forget last year we took him.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: I believe it's eight and a half underdog at Kansas City.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: We might have been the only US and four other
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: people about that game, and like the last seconds, Teddy
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: got us that cover and that's just where it's like,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: I love this guy. All he does is cover. So
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: I hated that we haven't we haven't used them this year.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: The biggest game in the history of the NFL is
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: happening on Sunday night on NBC Tampa Bay Buccaneers at
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: New England Patriots. The New England Patriots are six and
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at home in this game. The
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: line opened to three. Oh my god. It goes against
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: everything I believe in. But I truly believe that the
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: reason why the Patriots were the team that broke every
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: rule for betters in the past twenty years, it's clearly
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: because of Tom Brady. So I'm betting on Tom Brady
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: to break the rules again. Is a big favorite on
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: the road, well, do it as a coward. That's what
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: I'm doing. I've already teased this game. I tease them
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: with the Chiefs. I did a couple of teasers with
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: this game, Simon Hunter, professional coward. In no world does
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady lose this game. But as a pro, this
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: game is gonna get up the seven seven and a half.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: That's when I take the Patriots. I'm gonna keep waiting.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I haven't put a dime invested into the Patriots yet,
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: But even though I know I'm going to bet the Patriots,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: keep waiting. This is gonna keep growing. Everyone's gonna hitting
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: this on money lines. Everyone's gonna hitting the teaser. People
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: are gonna betting the straight Tom Brady in a landslide.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Of course, little back door hope, that's all I'm hoping for.
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: I guess this bad secondary of the Buccaneers. I'm just
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: hoping that gets me in the back door when this
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: gets up to seven and seven a half. So if
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: you're with me and you want to take the Patriots
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: and you've already missed teasing them down to a pick
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: with the Buccaneers, just wait. This is gonna keep going up.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: So I feel confident that I'm midle on the middle
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: of this game here and take the Bucks outright while
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: getting the seven and a half of the Patriots. I mean,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: here's the problem is, Matt Jones can't throw the ball
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: to the back door. He doesn't. He can't see it
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: from where he stands. It's not in his root tree
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: to throw the ball through the back door because he
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: doesn't throw it down field. He doesn't. He's a dinging dunker.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, we talked about it. That's why I never
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: got the hype for him at three. He is what
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: he is there. There is no upside like there is
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: with Trey Lance or Justin Fields, and these other quarterbacks
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: are drifted the head of him. Um mac is a
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: game manager, but he's actually surprisingly good shot at doing
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: these quick throws and intermedial thinks. He's just not a
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: long ball player. Like they're not gonna be flose to
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: big play team, the Patriots, but for them to grind
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: it out. I honestly like them here in this position
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: because they are kind of a grinded out team. So
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: it's it's more about how the Buccaneers are just so
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: banged up in the secondary that there are going to
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: the opportunities for Mac Jones a capitalize on that last
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: game on the slate, Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: the first game of the season without the Manning cast,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: which is crushing because I've loved it. The Las Vegas
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Raiders three and oh upset wins, sneaking one out against
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins. The Chargers are three and a half
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: point home favorites. I love the Chargers here. I need to,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: and it makes me scary. I talked to a couple
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: of the pros they bet this early at three, because
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: I was just trying to give a get a read
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: about how that people are feeling in Vegas, because again,
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: they're all a little bit of Homers. They're all going
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: to the these Vegas games. Now they're all becoming die
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: hard Las Vegas Raiders fans, and even they're like, you
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: know what, Chargers are the better team, They're in the
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: better spot. Take the Chargers here. Um, it's scaring me
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit, so I might flip flop on this one.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna really give out a pick yet. Um
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: I had the line of three. Now it's three and
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: a half, so I should be taking um. Las Vegas Raiders.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do it. It's just like God,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: this has when grooding and really like lays an egg
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: but scary, scary. But people keep hitting this up chat
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: they bet are Derek Carr passing yards leader? If this
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: guy keeps playing overtime, we're gonna kill that bet. I
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: mean he's already played two overtime games. I think he's
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: up two hundred yards now, the closest guy in second.
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: So Derek Carr Man, we love them. It'll be an
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: interesting race. So I don't know who's in the second,
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: but watching last night, so they the Buccaneers cannot run
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: the ball. It's it's kind of like the same thing
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: in Oakland, Oklan cannot run the ball, so they just
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: passed the time. Alright, So here's what we got right now.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Our assignment says is the Carolina Panthers plus four and
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: a half plus a taste on the money line. Our
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: Hornets nest is the Jets plus eight plus a taste
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: on the money line. Feels like you might want to
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: parlay to a little money line parlor to the Panthers
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: and the Jets. Yeah, at least round robbing it. Who
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: would we round round. Well, let's talk about the Ron
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: robin on Thursday. Um, the teams that we're thinking about
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: that were narrowing down the field on for Thursday, Giants
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, Eagles plus seven and a half,
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: Panthers plus four and a half, Vikes plus two and
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm putting the Bears in there at minus
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: two and a half, Jets plus eight, Broncos minus one
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: right now, but probably an underdog by the time we
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: get to it seven games. We gotta narrow it down
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: to five and have some some substantive conversation about we will. Look,
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: there's already wanted two of those games. I could see
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: us dropping, and we have a game where I could
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: see us switching in because again, a lot of the
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: stuff on waynar and now it is just injury news,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: because there's just a lot of stuff that happen on
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: Sunday that we don't have enough info on Tuesday really
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: give out. So I love those seven of our early picks.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: That's why we do it again on Thursday. Do it
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, look at the whole slate, do it on Thursday.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: Narrow it down based on market moves, news and information,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: more research than we've been able to do. Tuesday is
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: about getting the best of the number on our early leans. Thursday,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: we will narrow it down. We will give our big
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: ball better the week. I know Matt Mitchell, our producer
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: has given us some reviews, so let me share because
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: we love to get the reviews in. Oh, this is interesting. Okay,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: So this is a review from b Nash six five stars,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: and this is all we care about. Say whatever you
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: want in the review doesn't matter as long as you
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: give you the five stars. Awesome Pod, Easy Listen, Great
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Content would pay whatever it costs for them to re
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: record the voiceover chick who calls out the matchups. Her
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: voice is so annoying and I have to turn down
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: my radio. Also, the Simon says drop is another one
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: of those moments when I'm driving home and I hear
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: and I consider flipping my truck over the guard rail. Man.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: Most hate comments I get is about the Simon says drop.
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: I have other people I love it, So I'm sorry
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: for people's love or you hate it. Matt Mitchell, Well,
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: I'll say this. A wise man, an expert manager, and
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Chad Moment told me that feedback is a gift it's
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: never more of a gift than when it is critical.
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: And our friend B Nash six fifteen, who I assume
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: is a man of Nashville, I appreciate this feedback. It
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: will be taken under consideration. Hopefully you will not flip
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: this truck this week or in the weeks ahead. When
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: he hears these drops, I will lower their volume considerably,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: try to meet you halfway there. We're not gonna swap
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: out Tina or voice and related to use a national treasure.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: And the simon says, irritating song, it's part of it's
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: a lure. It will help you remember irritating pecks such
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: as take Carolina against America's team this week. So it's
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: all part of the mystique. But I do appreciate five
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: star reviews, even when they lambasted our show and it's
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: elements and I will be happy to send you some swag.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: Just email the show at podcasts Plural Podcasts at Action
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: network dot com. Darren F six another five star review again,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: keep them coming. We don't mind the criticism. We love it.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: I do have a bone to pick with this one.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: I've been listening to this podcast since Chad started it
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: with his old companion, Scooch. I want to say around
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: two Thou's probably close Simon, Chad's new companion, can be sharp,
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: but seems to live off his model, and it's constantly
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: off on his opinion of teams and weekly situations. Sometimes
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: I find myself talking back to the podcast as if
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: I had a mic to compare it takes on miss
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: scooch Roulette, which is when Scooch and I went head
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: to head. I also missed Chad having a stronger opinion
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: on the show. Chad seems to have gone full on
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: do what Simon says, oh and two right now, which
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: is wrong, and now lives his Sundays in the foxhole
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: instead of on the winning side. All in all, love
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: the show, and I'm sure Simon will bounce back because
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: this season goes on. I don't even know what to
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: say about that. I go against you all the time. Yeah,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: it seems like this guy doesn't listen to the show
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: clear enough. Last week I like the Ravens. Chad was
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: staunch and his take and take an alliance, so we
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: didn't put in the competition. But the Bills. I love
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: the Washington football team with it. This guy seems like
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: a hater. We went six percent last year and we
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: came twenty four in the whole contest. I'm trying, man,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to do better than last year. It's just hard.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: This ship is really hard. I will try to get
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Chad back those old ways of the screen with me
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: more often. Hey, you know what I feel like. I
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: feel like you took that criticism harder than I did.
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: I'm like Teflon man, No, I do not care. I
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: did in the media game a long time. I think
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: called terrible things. There's no more pain than looking at
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: your bank account after losing weekends. So no this, the
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: feelings are not hurt. Or you win thousands and thousands
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: of dollars every weekend, and you could have won more
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: if not for listening to me and making bad decisions
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: like not betting the Offalo bills. All right, keep those
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: five stuff reviews coming. We appreciate the criticism, Darren f
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Email podcasts at Action network dot com. We're gonna send
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: you some swag too. We love criticism, since feedback is
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: a gift. This has been the favorite podcast from the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: volume podcast NetWorld downloaded wherever podcasts are available, Apple, Spotify,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: rate review five star, reviews, You're gonna get some swag
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: until Thursday for Simon Hunter. I Am Chad Millman, I
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: Love you,