Latest / Dugout Dish Baseball Recruiting Podcast powered by EMD Baseball / Episode 116: College Baseball Postseason Chat

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Episode 116: College Baseball Postseason Chat · Dugout Dish Baseball Recruiting Podcast powered by EMD Baseball

• 0:00
  Speaker A: Foreign.
• 0:11
  Speaker B: Welcome to this week's edition of the Dugout Dish podcast. I'm Andy Kirakidis joined by my co host Keith Glasser. How we doing?
• 0:19
  Speaker A: Great. How are you?
• 0:20
  Speaker B: We got our, our frequent guest, college baseball expert, longtime friend, baseball savant Jonathan Grasse joining us again. And we are going to talk about some college baseball as the Division 1 Conference tournament season is upon us and there is plenty of good stuff to talk about heading into the, the final week before the NCAA tournament. So I'm going to, I'm going to kick it over to you, Mr. Grass, for kind of an opening statement before we, we unpack a couple, a couple topics here.
• 1:00
  Speaker C: Yeah, I mean there's a couple of things I think, you know, that obviously we went through it and we, we talked about this back in, you know, February, the, the week before, you know, Valentine's Day and you know, when the Division 1 season opened and how excited we were and you know, some storylines and I think one of the things I laughed about and I told you this earlier this afternoon we had our, you know, pre show meeting is we had to get on and apologize for our early takes at the mid met the midseason on the midseason call. But both seem to be true. And that was, that was the, the hangover of Tennessee, which I think we're kind of seeing. And you know, they're going to play tomorrow. We're, we're streaming this video Tuesday here as I'm watching some SPC baseball as we speak. They're going to play tomorrow again. Alabama, right? Yeah, Alabama. And then San Diego has been on a roll and they, they go into the wcc. The WCC as the, as the number one seed won that regular season. So both did not look great mid year. Both, both were definitely, you know, in serious question. But you know, we, I think we, we both nailed the, yeah. Hit the nail right on top of the head. So that's how I'll start. I think one of the things, you know, the big one for me, you know, to look at is, you know what, you know, the SEC is going to probably get six national seeds. I think that's, we're probably past that. Like that's probably where we're at depending on obviously what happens here this week in Hoover. But SEC is going to get six national seeds. How many get to Omaha? You know, how many, how many do they get total? I think will be a question. I think, you know, is it 13, is it 14? You know, I think that will be, you know, even 12, you know, potentially, you know, depending on how, how some things happen. And I'm sure we'll get the, you know, the bid stealing stuff here in a second. But how many do they get? You know, number one in the national seed. Do they get any other hosts? Because I think a lot of them actually this week are playing for host spots. I think Florida, I think Ole Miss, I think Alabama. You know, those three, you know, come to mind right away, like those are potential hosts. You make a run in Hoover, single game, you know, elimination tournament, which is different. You know, this is the first year of that, you know, with all, you know, 18 going to Hoover. Will be interesting, you know, will be interesting. The ACC will be interesting, I think, you know, can Notre Dame get in? You know, they've done a great job the second half of the year. I mean, they looked all but dead, you know, two months, you know, six weeks ago. They made a run, done a great job, got the 14 ACC wins. Can they get one more? Maybe. Does that put them over? You know, and I think the last one is for me is, is Northeastern, like 45 wins is absolutely absurd. Like, it's wild. And I was listening to something today and somebody was like, I wonder if they put in a bid to host. You know, and I don't think they're going to end up getting to that, you know, to that top 16 realm. But I mean, a team that has played as well as they have the last basically two months. I mean, they haven't lost since they played Campbell on that Sunday. They haven't lost the game like that. I wouldn't want to be, I wouldn't want to have them in my pod as the, as the 2 seed, I'll put it that way.
• 4:47
  Speaker B: Yeah. What they're doing, it's just ridiculous. It was back to back games against B.C. and thousand and they've lost one time since March 21st. It's just a wild run to do that weekend and week out. You know, you go and you beat UConn twice. It was a really, really good team. Their flex and their muscle. They've left no doubt that they're in this tournament. They don't need to win the CAA tournament. The nice icing on the cake. They've certainly earned it. But unlike last year, they've left no doubt they're. They're going to be a 2 seed would be my guess. So, yeah, that's what they're doing up there is phenomenal. I mean, they've been good for the better part of the last decade, but they've reached a different level the last couple years. And this is kind of the, you know, the pinnacle at this point of what they've been able to do. And it's just to show up week in and week out like that is so much harder than people realize to do what they've been doing. So. Coach Glass, what do you got?
• 5:55
  Speaker A: My, my three. I suppose I'll be quick, maybe not the most surprising, but I do think it's interesting that that in their first year, Texas wins the sec. A lot of questions surrounding that. Obviously there was a lot of, of drama last year at the end when Texas A and M and, and Coach Sloschnagel leaves A and M to go take the Texas job. And then obviously as a caveat to this story, what the roller coaster ride of what A and M was this year preseason number one to likely being the first ones on the outside looking in ever with, you know, getting swept at Mizzou tough. The, the other one, Georgia Tech winning the ACC thought that was, you know, they played really good baseball. They were up and down. You know, I know they struggled a little bit towards the end, but you know, to win the ACC at Georg Tech in Coach Hall's last year there is, you know, he's announced his retirement. So I think that's a, it's a pretty good storybook ending there to a really good career and then the last one. And I hope I'm not stealing this from you, Andy, but the, the, the Columbia Lions have secured the, the Ivy League bid, winning the conference tournament championship over the last this past weekend. And I believe, Andy, you can correct me on my, if my stat correct me, but every single Columbia lion who has played for Coach Beretti between 2013 and who will graduate or excuse me, graduated from 2013 until now 2028, has now won an Ivy League championship and will be playing in the NCAA tournament, which essentially covers the demographic of 18 to 34 years old, which is an insane stat to kind of throw out there and think about that at least one time in every player's career who's graduated between 2013 and 2028 will have played in at least one NCAA tournament. If you were a Columbia line under Brett Beretti and I like we're going to have him on the podcast. He's agreed to it. When we nail down that date is to be seen. But I am like Coach Brady is. I respect Coach Brady. I have the utmost respect for him. I think he's a phenomenal human being. I think he's an unbelievable baseball coach is just as evidence of what he's been able to do at, you know, but like, that's, like that's an insane kind of stat to think about in this game. That for spanning 20, you know, 22 years of graduates. That. Or, excuse me, 15 years.
• 8:38
  Speaker B: What is it?
• 8:38
  Speaker A: 15 years, 12 years of graduates.
• 8:40
  Speaker B: What is that? 15, 15.
• 8:43
  Speaker A: That's the history major in me for all you marist guys. But 15 years of graduates to be able to have played at least one NCAA tournament like that, that's remarkable. Like that, that is just nothing short of. Of really being an incredible thing to be able to, you know, be a part of there. And also, you know, watch from the outside looking in that they're. They're that good. So, you know, I thought that that was, you know, that one maybe not so much that they want it. You know, I know they were the co champions and then they were. They had lost that to head to Yale, so they were the 2 seed technically in the tournament. They had another great year. But to, to see that stat rollout the. I think Sunday or Monday night, I was like, my goodness, that's. So I wanted to throw that out there and give Coach Peretti and the Columbia Lions some love.
• 9:30
  Speaker B: I think the thing that. To highlight because people will be like, oh, well, you know, there's teams that have made the tournament for 15 consecutive years. You have to win a championship to get in the tournament. When you're in the Ivy League. Right, Right. You don't. You're not getting an at large bid. Now, they've had a couple teams that were on the cusp. Right. And Patton has had a couple of teams that, you know, they were high enough in the RPI where they were at least in a discussion at some point. But I think the unique thing is, is you're talking about lifting a trophy. Every one of those kids has lifted a trophy which allows them to go to that tournament. And that's the unique thing about it, is that, you know, if you're one of these SEC programs, you know that, you know, they've been in the tournament for 21 straight years. Like, yeah, that's a great accomplishment, but it's different. Right. You don't have to win anything to get there. They have to win something.
• 10:17
  Speaker A: Yeah, you just have to win games during the regular season.
• 10:20
  Speaker B: Yeah, you don't have to win.
• 10:21
  Speaker A: You don't have to win the tournament to get in.
• 10:23
  Speaker B: Yep.
• 10:23
  Speaker A: And I mean, some years you do and they do, but this is an every year thing that you have to win the tournament in order to advance to the NCAA tournament.
• 10:33
  Speaker B: And also shout out Ben Fishel, EMD baseball guy, love him. Played a huge role in them getting to where they went this year. So shout out Benny, freshman at Columbia, played a pretty big role this year in helping them get there. So pretty proud of him finding his way in that program. He's got a great career ahead of him. I'd be remiss to, to not shout out the Holy Cross Crusaders, Coach Kahovic, Coach Tinkham, who we've had on the podcast, they ended the West Point, the Army six year streak in dominant seven year streak in dominance in the Patriot League. Great job by that staff. Great job by those players. I mean, another one, a heck of an accomplishment to, you know, they won the regular season, which I think means a ton. And me and you, Jonathan, have talked about this. You know, the regular season championship is. It may not get you the birth into the NCAA tournament, but that's the, the most telling thing when you're looking at like how a team plays out over the course of the season and then in fitting fashion, they had to beat the champs to get there. And you know, they were able to do it in a pretty dramatic fashion last night. Walk off double in the 10th. There's just a great job by that program. Like Army's a tough one to get over. They've been dominant in that conference for, like I said, seven years now. And great job by that staff, great job by that team and obviously best of luck to them. We'll see where they're going to end up on Monday during the selection show.
• 12:12
  Speaker C: Yeah, me and you had talked about this. I'm so fired up for those guys, man. Like Coach Tanks me, works his butt off, does a great job. I mean between, between what they did in the regular season, what Yale did in the regular season and obviously Yale didn't get over the hump, unfortunately. But you know, what those two programs have done in the last three to four years with new staffs out all the time, finding good players, working, it's good to see some good guys get rewarded, you know, and I was so fired up last night for those guys that, you know, and coach Tanks obviously, you know, is a good friend of mine as well, and we're very close. But to see them, you know, hoist that trophy last night was really cool, you know, I mean that, that's a tough game in that league, you know, with what they have and the resources that this school gives them and you know, everything else. So super pumped that they not only won the regular season, but then we're able to, you know, get it, get a chance to go and play in a regional, you know, in a week and a half.
• 13:20
  Speaker B: We'Re going to have some more trophies lifted here over the next week or so and have some more tickets punched. I think one of the big, and it's always interesting this time of year is figuring out who's going to steal bids because it has a pretty dramatic impact. Like you've got, you got a bunch of teams that are either trying to play their way into this. Like we mentioned Notre Dame at the top of it, they're sitting 40 in the RPI. They play Boston College in 26 minutes. If they're able to get that game off in time, they're right on the cusp of it. But they probably need a few things to fall their way, right? Teams like UConn and Xavier, if they don't win their conference tournament, one of those teams has the resume to be an at large. But if you lose a bunch of bids to some of these leagues and we'll get into some of the leagues that I think people need to keep an eye on. If you track this, you know, Kentucky last night, they really needed that win and they didn't get it. But they have a resume from an RPI perspective. They play in the SEC. They got those 13 SEC wins. They didn't play Missouri. Be interesting to see if the, the committee takes that into account because if you followed Missouri season this year, they didn't win a lot of games. They had one good weekend against Texas A M and otherwise they were pretty much a guaranteed three wins for everybody in the sec and Kentucky didn't play them. I wonder if that's going to play a factor. You know, you got a bunch of teams that are going into conference tournaments that have a chance to kind of solidify themselves. Like I'm looking at Troy, Troy sitting at 42. They're a popular team. They didn't lose a weekend series until they got swept last weekend by Southern Miss. But you're sitting at 42. You finished third in your conference. You probably need a couple wins to feel good about yourself going into this, even though you've been a little bit of a darling, right? Cal Poly is another one, 23 and 7 heading in the right direction, but you're sitting at 44 from a non Power 5 conference. Like you need some stuff to go your way if you don't end up winning it. So couple conferences that I have in Mind like we look, Jonathan, you let off at Northeastern. They're getting in. UNC Wilmington's a really good team and they're. They're playing well right now. If you're one of these bubble teams, you are crossing your fingers that Northeastern wins that tournament because that is a bid that's going to get stolen if they don't. That's one that comes to mind for me. The other one, the other couple that I want to throw out there, you got Conference USA with Dallas Baptist being in. They're actually potentially playing themselves into a host conversation if they can. If they can win that tournament. I think that they legitimately are in host conversation with their current RPI, which they're sitting at. Yeah, they're sitting at 18, you know, so they win that tournament, they'll be in that conversation. You got the American with UTSA looking like the only sure fire team that's going to get in. You got Charlotte and ECU that are always a threat in that conference. You got the Big west with Irvine, you got the Big east, which I think is has a chance to be a bid stealing league. And yeah, those are the ones that popped off for me. Any thoughts on that?
• 16:53
  Speaker C: The only other one, I think, and I don't think it's gonna end up being a bid stealer because I think it's gonna all kind of shake itself out. But I think the Southland was the other one that we had talked about with UT RGV.
• 17:08
  Speaker B: Yeah.
• 17:09
  Speaker A: They're saying 41.
• 17:10
  Speaker C: See, like the one. The one thing with the 40s, which what I will say is, is that last year we kind of saw precedent with Florida getting in over Northeastern and Charleston. And I believe it was 41 and 42 or 42 and 43 respectively for those two. We kind of seen a little bit of precedent with the new committee that they're gonna lean a little bit more on, you know, the power conferences. So I think there's something to be said about that where I think, like the Southland, like, you know, they'll put the first four out and, you know, hopefully we're gonna do a live show here next Monday and be have a ton of fun with you guys. But I think like, you could easily see like Sila or, or Rio Grande Valley, like, oh, first four out, like 42, RPI, 41, you know, 41. I think you just said, Andy, like, we've kind of seen that precedent be set already where you're like, all right, yeah, Kentucky's in. Or, you know, insert power school here. That's on the bubble that they've gotten precedent over the last few years as opposed to the mid major at the in the 40s, which is a conversation for another day. We're not going to talk about that tonight. But I think like the Southland is one of those ones that like, it probably is not going to really matter because I don't think that they're going to put one of those teams in over a Kentucky over, you know, maybe even a Notre Dame, you know, some of these other Kansas State maybe, but like the south one's, the other one that could be like that wild card just a little bit.
• 18:56
  Speaker B: Yeah. Because if, I mean Southeast Louisiana, Southeastern Louisiana sitting at 54, UTRGV sitting at 41, you know, if you, you know, Lamar sitting at 61, like, if you're either of those teams and you beat Lamar, that move that legitimately moves a needle for you. You know, if you're Rio Grande Valley and you can find a way to beat Lamar and you can find a way to get a win against Southeastern Louisiana and maybe you don't win the tournament, those two wins might move you up. So you, you know, and if you're in the 40s, if you're, you shouldn't say in the 40s, if you'm in the top 40 in the RPI, you got a pretty good shot of getting in barring a bunch of random tournament.
• 19:45
  Speaker C: Bids that end up the other part, too. And this is, this can't be unsaid, right? And this doesn't go for Rio Grande Valley because they're not, they're, the other two are not in the top 50. But those other two, if they beat UT GRV, those are quad one wins. And the committee has been adamant that they're going to look at quad one and quad two wins. Now obviously Rio Grande Valley will have the WINS In Quad 2 if they beat both of those opponents. But if you're Sila, you're going especially for that large bid, right? Like let's say you beat Grand Valley and then they beat you twice in the championship. Well, that's another quad one win for you. So like, that's a big deal. Like according to the committee, it's a big deal, right? Like those quad one wins and, and the quad one and quad two wins, they're saying they're combining them now are a big deal. So like, you know, and even for, for Rio Grande Valley, right, Like if you win and let's say you lose in a championship game to Sila or even Lamar, you're gonna have another. A bunch of quad two wins then to get there. So I think that's. That's something to, you know, to consider in this whole thing.
• 21:05
  Speaker B: For sure. I mean, there's. There's definitely some things that are going to get really interesting here in the next couple weeks, and there's going to be a handful of teams that are going to be sitting there watching. Like UC Santa Barbara came in as the top 25 team. They're starting to play well. They've been playing well for a couple of weeks. They had a stretch there where they didn't look like they were very good this year. They got a horse at the front end that is as good as anybody in the country. If they win that Big west tournament, that's at least one bid that got stolen, and they could very well win that thing. You know, Poly could very well win that thing. You know, that's an interesting conference. You know, the American. You know, Charlotte's. Charlotte's a good ball club this year. You know, they've been playing good baseball. Let's see, they're 57. They're 36 and 20 right now. You know, that's a team that can absolutely win that tournament. And, you know, like, we're talking about some of these teams. And shoot, man, you know, Troy and Notre Dame and UConn and Xavier, like, you, you got to win some games here this week if you want to make sure that you're in that conversation. Otherwise it could certainly slip away. I mean, you got usc, another team, you know, three weeks ago, looked like they were a lock. They slipped a little bit. They probably got to win a couple of games in the Big Ten tournament to get back inside that top 40. Oklahoma State is surging. They're on the better side of 500 in the, in the Big 12 right now. That's another club that's playing for their lives. You know, they win two or three games in the Big 12 tournament, they're going to get into that mix. But you got to pray that some of these other conferences don't drop the ball and, and hurt you with some of these stolen bids. The other team, I think, is going to be an interesting study in how the committee views things is going to be this Virginia ball club. There's only been one time since 2013 where an above.500 ACC team did not make the NCAA tournament. Virginia is going to test that policy. They're 16 and 11 in conference right now, 32 and 17. And overall, they're sitting 56 RPI, typically 56 RPI is not getting you in the tournament, but 16 and 11 in the ACC almost certainly does. I would say they probably need to get a win, maybe two in the tournament to feel really good about themselves. But to your point, is the committee going to judge the fact that they play in the ACC and look at their ACC record and they're going to disregard some of the less than stellar midweek losses that they had early on in the season and a couple slip ups that they had from a serious perspective early on in the season. Are they going to be willing to overlook that and go, hey, if you're 16 and 11 in the accident, you should be an NCAA tournament team? I don't know.
• 24:21
  Speaker C: I think we've seen some precedent. Like I believe Florida was 55 last year, 54 in the RPI. I believe they were in the 50s. I could be wrong on that.
• 24:34
  Speaker B: See if I can find that.
• 24:36
  Speaker C: See if you can find, look that up. But I think we kind of see like, and I know I've gone back and forth on this if you've been a loyal listener and have gone back and forth because I was really disappointed last year in the whole Northeastern Charleston thing, not getting in. But I just think there's certain parameters that if you play in these leagues, they just have to be automatics, like 14 or 15 sec wins you're in. There's no questions, there's. And that includes the tournament in my opinion in the acc because I think it's a little bit of a step down. Not much, but a little. I think four, I think 15 to 16 ACC Windsor that you should be a lock if you win 15 or 16 games in that league. Like, and I know it's a little bit, you know, maybe it's a little bit dilated, you know, this year because you know, Cal and Stanford were not very good. Boston College obviously had a down year. Like, but like, I just don't know if you can just tell me like, hey, we should take somebody else. When one of these teams lost on a Tuesday to blank team. When you're rolling out 15 or 16 ACC wins, like, that's just, I don't know. I, in my opinion, The SEC is 14, including the tournament. ACC's 15. Once you hit that number, it's like, yep, you're in like and again, maybe an anomaly here or there, but 99 of the time you hit those numbers in those leagues, like you got to be in like I, I just, these leagues are too good. Like if you're winning that many games, like you're one of the best 64 teams in the country. Like, that's just the reality of it.
• 26:28
  Speaker A: I can't find where Florida was at pre tournament.
• 26:33
  Speaker C: Would they finish post tournament, which is obviously very good.
• 26:36
  Speaker A: 10Th.
• 26:39
  Speaker C: Okay, so then I am off.
• 26:41
  Speaker B: But they obviously, I mean, but all.
• 26:44
  Speaker A: Of their wins were quad. Were more than likely quad one wins.
• 26:51
  Speaker C: For the most part, outside of like, maybe one or two.
• 26:55
  Speaker A: But still, you know what I mean? Like, I, But I don't. Like, they, they were high last year when. Because we were on the, we were on the Gator. Shouldn't be in the tournament track. But I also think, like, looking back in comparison to the UVA team this year, like, it's kind of the same thing, Right. Like, Florida disproved the argument of that. Should they have been in on paper statistically? Sure, because they were 36 and, and, you know, whatever. They had 30, whatever wins, 28, 30 wins. And then they were, you know, they were 13 and 17 in the SEC. Yeah, but like, on, like, roster wise and on paper. Yeah. Talent wise, they're one of the best 64 teams in the country. And I don't think we ever argued against that, and I don't think we're arguing against that with uva. They just haven't done it consistently enough on the field for us to be like, yeah, this is definitely a team. But if we're taking. If we're just looking at this with. With 0, with. Without. It's the best way to put this for us. Like, without the actual baseball acumen. Right. Like, if we're just looking at, do they have the talent and have they hit the numbers, then. Yeah, I agree with you. I think it's really hard to. For a team that was 16:11 in the ACC and the second best team, the second best conference in the country, to be like, yeah, no, they're not one of the best 64 teams in the country. And you can take out. You can explain away some of those losses, you know, and I think sometimes it's, it's. It's better to lose early almost like in football, like, hey, man, we're figuring out in, in March and April, you know, and they stumbled a little bit, but, you know, 1611 in the ACC, nothing to sneeze at. And I think that that's. I would. I agree that I think they have to win a game or two to really feel good about themselves. Because if you, you know, if you, if you lose to what the. The winner of B.C. notre Dame, if you lose that game, you're you're sweating it out through Sunday or through Monday night for the selection show. But if you go win one or two games, you're going to feel, especially.
• 29:05
  Speaker C: If it's Boston College, because right then, then you're gonna. You're right. If Boston College beats Notre Dame tonight and then they beat you tomorrow in terms of uva, you, you're sweating it out. Yeah.
• 29:21
  Speaker A: Because Notre Dame's not going to kill you. But, you know, and again, like, take nothing away from Boston College. As a caveat to this conversation, I'm glad it was brought up. Those guys did a phenomenal job with what they, with what is going on in Boston College from just a roster perspective, not to put anybody down, but that, that, that roster is not necessarily constructed right now to win as many games in the ACC as they did. Like, those guys did a phenomenal job with, with what they have right there, you know, but the fact still remains, like, it is what it is. Like their, their RPI is a lot lower. They're like, they're at the bottom of the acc. If you lose that game, you're. It's just, it's cut and dry. It is what it is. You know, But I don't. I, I would say right now I would think that they are in. I think if you win one or two games, like, you're a lock. But if you, you know, if you lose, you're sweating this one out. Especially if it's bc, you're sweating it out through Sunday because. And then bids, you know, if you have some bid Steelers in there, like, you might, you might be on the outside, you might be that first four out come Monday night.
• 30:26
  Speaker B: All right, put it this way. Little quick research here. What I'm seeing is the lowest ranked RPI team to get an at large bid was actually last year when Indiana got in with an RPI of 55.
• 30:46
  Speaker A: Oh, okay.
• 30:53
  Speaker B: Florida State got in with 50 with an RPI of 50 in 2019. And the, the formula was a little bit different back then, but it looks like. Craig, apologies, I'm wrong. And then TCU got in with 55 at one point as well.
• 31:15
  Speaker C: Yeah, I remember when TC got it at 55. That was seniors last year though, wasn't it? In 2019? Who's Mike Martin Senior?
• 31:26
  Speaker B: Yeah, I think it was. Yes.
• 31:28
  Speaker C: And I think that was like that border. And then they, they ended up in Omaha too.
• 31:34
  Speaker A: Yeah, they, it was his last year because it was. He retired right before COVID Yeah.
• 31:40
  Speaker B: Let's see what their, their ACC record was that year for.
• 31:49
  Speaker A: I can tell you give me one second.
• 31:53
  Speaker B: I'll raise it.
• 31:54
  Speaker A: I can't.
• 31:57
  Speaker B: But it's like once again, even if Virginia wins a couple games, right, I think that if they win two games, they probably firmly get into the 40s. And I don't think there's any way they get left out. If there are PIs in the 40s.
• 32:12
  Speaker C: I actually think they only need one. If you win one one time, I think you're fine.
• 32:16
  Speaker B: Florida State was 17 and 13 that year.
• 32:19
  Speaker C: Yeah, you're in, you're in. I, I just, it's 16 ACC wins. I just, I, I, I don't know.
• 32:26
  Speaker B: Yeah, I agree with you. Kentucky, I think is going to be the most interesting exercise in all of this. 29 wins, for some reason, that just looks terrible on paper. Like 30 looks so much better than 29. It really does. Their RPI lines up for sure. You know, I think they're 35. They'll go, they'll drop a little bit probably just because of some teams will move, there'll be a little bit of a shuffle. They'll probably end up staying about the same. Let me, let me, let me step that back. They got some really good SEC wins, they got some bad SEC weekends, and they got a couple really bad midweek losses. I'll be really curious to see what ends up happening with them because they would be a unique case of a, a 30 RPI team not getting in. I believe that there's been a higher ranked RPI team that hasn't gotten in in the past. I think South Carolina got left out at like 28 or 29 not long ago, but I have not fact checked myself that. But 29 wins, my thought is they need things to fall perfect for them to get that bid. But if that committee is serious about all the 13 or 14 win mark. Right. They got the 13 win mark which Florida got to last year, and they ended up getting it. Kentucky doesn't have the midweek resume that Florida had. Right. So that doesn't help. But that Missouri stuff, Missouri stuff is what's interesting to me is that if you just say that they win the series against Missouri, we're not even having this conversation because 15 get you in every day, twice on Sundays. And I wonder if the committee is going to take that into consideration because they're one of the few SEC teams that did not play Missouri this year.
• 34:37
  Speaker C: I texted you guys this a couple weeks ago before obviously the A M weekend. And one of the things that was mentioned was how does the committee judge sec like, you know, total wins, right? Like total wins with Missouri on the schedule. Without Missouri on the schedule. I think, and I said this after the A and M weekend because I was on the board of just eliminate those three wins. But then you also have to like, kind of like take a percentage is, you know. Right. Obviously you can't just eliminate those three wins because that's not fair. But how do you judge? And obviously they swept A and M, so maybe you count them the same as all other SEC wins. But how do you judge a team that's at, you know, 13 or 14 and 14 is going to get you in. So it's not even that. But like you said, Andy, like they didn't play Missouri. So if you take one weekend away and even if they went 1 and 2, but they played Missouri, that's two extra wins. Like you said 15s. And every time, twice on Sunday, we're even talking about this. How, how does the committee judge that, that they didn't get a chance to play a team that basically everybody outside of Texas A and M blew their doors off?
• 36:08
  Speaker A: Fair question.
• 36:11
  Speaker B: Well, and I think there's a, I think there's a key piece of the statement you just said there outside of the A and M weekend. Right. I don't want to pile on the Missouri train here, but like they weren't even competitive. Not even competitive. They had a weekend where they didn't play more than seven innings in a game. They got mercy ruled three consecutive times. That's unheard of in that conference.
• 36:40
  Speaker A: Unheard of games get away. But that it doesn't happen like that. Here's the other. Now, not to tie this back into UVA right away, but they also law. They had a whole entire series wiped at Florida State because of weather. So it's like it does that factor in as well because, and it's hard to do. Right. Like, what if they go in, if they went to Tallahassee and 12 and win that series. We're not having this conversation. They're an 18 and 11. You know, they're probably a two lock.
• 37:15
  Speaker B: Yeah, they're probably too.
• 37:16
  Speaker A: You know what I mean? Like, like that, that's something to factor in. Like we can play this game all day long. And I'm not, I'm not saying you're wrong. I just wonder, like I, I, I'm wondering out loud as well. Like, like how much is that going to factor in? Because you can do it. You can do it with every team who played Missouri in the sec. You can do it With Florida State. Like, you're not gonna do with Florida State because they're. Their, Their RPI is so high and they had a great year. But, like, what if Virginia went in and won that series? What if they swept them? You know what I mean? Like, we're not even having this conversation out there, right? Like, we're not even having this conversation.
• 37:54
  Speaker C: But, like, let's be honest, like, they're not a host.
• 37:58
  Speaker A: No. But I, I wonder, like, what. I. I don't think that you can discount. And again, like, not to pile on the Mizzou stuff, but, like, I don't think you can discount it with what. That, like, what they rolled out there. I'm not, not trying to be negative towards the kids or the program or anything, but from a pure competitive standpoint in the sec, like, that. That is a visible step below with, with what? Like, and it bears out in the numbers. I mean, they're. They didn't win a game in conference until the last second to last series of the year, where, quite honestly, no one thought that was going to happen, but it did, and that's why this game is awesome. But, like, you can't be 3 and 27 in the league and also stand on the fact that it's a competitive advantage or disadvantage for the teams that didn't play them and that, that's just the truth. When you get into athletics, that is the God's honest, absolute truth. Because for, you know, nine other teams, those are three guaranteed wins on your roster or on your schedule. Excuse me. That some other teams in that league didn't even have the opportunity to get and had to play a tougher. Like, I think you're right, Jonathan. I think that they're like, they're. I didn't. I don't. Like, you can work up the mathematical equations for it, but I think that has to be factored in. And I do think that factors in with Kentucky, especially being on the bubble, having not played them.
• 39:26
  Speaker B: That's.
• 39:27
  Speaker A: That is absolutely. Because if they played them, what are the 30. They're 32 win team, 31, 32 win team. Maybe win a game or two in the conference tournament. You're good.
• 39:39
  Speaker C: And it's. It's 15. 15, potentially 16 wins in the SEC, right? You get the 15, it's over. Like, you're in like 30, 30 wins and 15. It's like not even 30, just 15 wins. You're in like. So, like. Yeah, I understand that. It's like, you know, Missouri swim text A and M, which is fine, but like, they also lost 27 games in the 28 games because they lost today and they only played nine innings, like two thirds of those games. If, if that. I just think it's hard to not give credit to Kentucky because the way the math worked issue, they didn't play him.
• 40:22
  Speaker A: Right. No, I agree. I, I think it's. But I, and I think this is true across a lot of college baseball, not just specifically in this scenario where, like, when you have unbalanced scheduling and you can't have the opportunity to play everyone, you have teams that.
• 40:43
  Speaker B: Not in.
• 40:43
  Speaker A: The SEC or ACC where you know, everyone makes the conference tournament and your RPI is going to jump and you can make a run where like, you might be left out of the conference tournament because you didn't play the bottom two or three teams in that league that aren't good and that like, it's like, it's hard to, it's hard to sit in those meetings and have those conversations as coaches and be like, well, we didn't play the bottom three teams and we missed the conference tournament by a game. Like, if I was able, if I flipped one of these series, I'm probably the two or three seed. And, and I think that's, that's a hard thing. Like, it's hard to rectify in this game because there are teams, regardless of conference division, that are not good and it's not an every year thing. Sometimes it is. Some, you know, in most cases it's not. But like, sometimes you just, you just don't, like, it's just not good. But when you miss those wins, it dings you in a lot of different ways from being able to play in the postseason. And I like, in case in point is Kentucky this year on a national level where like, yeah, they're on the bubble and they, they, they missed three wins. Obviously we have to play it on the field, but like playing percentages here, that's three wins for that Kentucky team. And you know, I think it absolutely has to be factored in, in that room. When they're having the conversation about, you know, bubble teams and who's in and where they're going, that, like, that is, that is an absolute factor going into that conversation.
• 42:13
  Speaker B: One other thing I want to bring up before we close this out, I think this would be kind of unprecedented. Correct me if I'm wrong, Johnson, you're.
• 42:25
  Speaker A: The resident historian here.
• 42:29
  Speaker B: If Coastal wins the Sunbelt Tournament.
• 42:34
  Speaker A: I.
• 42:35
  Speaker B: Think they're a national seed. You're talking 47 wins, complete dominance of a really good conference, they're currently 11 in the RPI. They likely have to beat Southern Miss and or Troy, which is going to move the needle. From an RPI perspective. Alabama, lsu, if they don't win the tournament, they probably bare minimum stay the same. Clemson could drop. Like there's a legitimate scenario where Coastal could end up inside the top eight. From an RPI perspective, they have the facility to do it. I would say that they have the resume to do it. I think they're firmly a host. Right. I shoot. I think if Southern Miss ends up winning their tournament, you might see two host sites come out of the Sunbelt. I think that's a likely scenario as well. With Southern Miss sitting at at 21 with the RPI points that they could accumulate if they're able to win that tournament. I think you probably have two coming out of there. But the big one for me is like Coastal being a national seed would.
• 43:47
  Speaker C: Be.
• 43:49
  Speaker B: Incredible, I think awesome for baseball.
• 43:51
  Speaker A: It'd be amazing. One thing, and I'm not, I'm not disputing any fact here, the one thing just for clarity's sake, when we talk about this stuff on here, for people who are maybe not as sick about college baseball as we are national seeds. When you see, when you hear us say national seeds, it's 1 through 8. When you hear us say host, that's going to be nine through 16 they're hosting. And then when it gets to supers, the top eights are going to host the super regionals, so on and so forth. So we, we. I was, I noticed as we've been talking about it, we throw it around because we know what we're talking about. But if you're listening and you're not, you can't follow along with that. That like the nationals are your one through eight hosts are going to be nine through 16. When it gets to like those 16 regionals will be held at that place with the four teams. And then the national ones are the ones that host their super regionals. So I just, I noticed it earlier. Jonathan was like, they're going to get six nationals. And I was like, ooh, people might not actually know what we're talking about.
• 44:49
  Speaker C: Here, but go ahead and just add on the. A national seat is going to host as long as they win that regional. So like, there are years where a national could potentially lose. So then you're pairing that. There could be some. A little bit disparity, but yes, Keith's 100. Right. 1 through 8 national seed, they are going to host 1 through 16 will host regional sites. And then if you get to a super again, as long as those one through eight, when you would. You would host. But there are years where it happens. I mean, last year, right, like, we had. We've had national seeds not. Not get through. So that is, that is for sure. Back to your question, Andy. I don't know of a mid major that's been a national seed that has been a national seed. To be honest with you. I don't. I can't think of one off the top of my head. Dallas Baptist is obviously host. Coastal is obviously hosted that. But we've also only been in the national seed realm for like a couple of years. We're not like, totally into it yet. Like, we're like a lot of years where, like, there's a lot of data points. One thing I think is a good question is I think if lsu, here's my couple bullet points for to Coastal to get into a national seed, Coastal would have to win out and have to win a tournament. That. That would be the bottom to get to even get into this conversation. That would be one, two, I think, because you're gonna have wins against Southern Miss and Troy in the tournament. You're gonna probably have to beat Southern Miss twice, if I were to guess. But that. That's kind of the starting point. I think LSU would probably have to lose on Thursday, their opening round. And I think the other question would be. And this is like, weird because we've never been in this scenario. Oregon State's not playing. They're sitting at home right now, currently sitting six.
• 46:55
  Speaker B: If it all ended right now, they're. They're a national, but.
• 46:59
  Speaker C: But they're sitting at home.
• 47:01
  Speaker B: Yep.
• 47:02
  Speaker C: So they're not doing anything right now. Does the committee look at that differently? And again, this is the first time we've ever had this because we've never had an independent with a resume like theirs. Does the committee look at that different because of Coastal running through the. The. The Sunbelt and say, hey, well, we're gonna move a team down and move Coastal in because they sat at home all weekend?
• 47:39
  Speaker B: Good question.
• 47:40
  Speaker C: Right? Like, and we've never had this hat. Like, we've never. We've never been in this scenario.
• 47:44
  Speaker B: We're gonna find out in six days. And that's what the fun part is.
• 47:48
  Speaker C: The other one too, though, too, is if Oregon goes like two and a queue in in the Big Ten tournament, because I think they're a double elimination, that could be another scenario that could also probably play into a national seed. For potentially for Coastal. I think it's tough though. I, my gut tells me that they're going to be 10, 11, 12 if I were to guess.
• 48:15
  Speaker B: Fair enough. Any other closing thoughts?
• 48:21
  Speaker A: Yeah. You have Division 2 and Division 3 supers underway this weekend. Their, their regionals kicked off last weekend. I would remiss to not shout out the fighting Engineers of RPI who made it to the regional final with the number one overall seed in Johns Hopkins. But there's some really good baseball being played at the Division 2 and Division 3 level this weekend in supers as well. I know I was texting you guys today that I have a slight bone to pick with the Division 2, how many teams we're getting in. There's eight regionals with three teams in the regional which, like I wonder, like you're telling me that there's not one team in all of those regionals that we can add into it to get four team double elimination tournaments instead of playing the weird, like the lowest seed plays somebody and then if they win, whoever wins or whoever loses plays the other team who hasn't played yet and then there's two left. You play a three game set. If not, you play other. It's a wild kind of set up. So if, along with adding more dates to Division 3 stuff, like I would wave my magic wand and add more teams into the Division 2 tournaments that we have it. But there's a lot of Division 2 and Division 3 being played this weekend as well. And I think especially at the Division 3 level, you know, if you're, if you're around some of the places that are hosting supers and a lot of them are, you know, there are some in the Northeast, Mid Atlantic, Midwest, like get out there and watch some of those games because it's high level baseball being played, not just the Division 1 conference tournaments that are going on. So I just wanted to at least shout out our Division 2 and Division 3 guys because they're getting deeper into their, their postseason with what they have going on. And I think there's some, some really good baseball to be played. I know Case, Case and Hopkins I think is probably one of the best ones out there this weekend. Down in Baltimore, Case Western and Hopkins are playing, you know, Lynchburg and Rowan is probably going to be a really good season or series. Excuse me, Salvey and Kane are playing down in Jersey, which will be good, you know, so I think there's a lot of really good baseball being played at the Division 3 level this weekend. So if you're around those places or you're streaming it. You know, follow up and watch some some really good Division 3 baseball. That's my closing thought.
• 50:56
  Speaker B: Well said. A lot of baseball going on right now. Tune in. You could pretty much watch baseball from 9am until midnight possibly.
• 51:05
  Speaker A: I've been watching.
• 51:07
  Speaker C: I'm in that.
• 51:08
  Speaker A: I shouldn't even say I've been watching. We've all been texting since 9 o' clock this morning when the ACC tournament kicked off. It hasn't stopped on my tv.
• 51:17
  Speaker C: I couldn't have been more excited to fire up Miami and Cal at 9am When I got home.
• 51:24
  Speaker A: Oh yeah, it was great.
• 51:25
  Speaker B: We're sick, but it's fun. Jonathan, you're the man. We're going to do this a couple more times over the next couple weeks. Tune in next week. We will go over the bracket. We will have bones to pick on who got left out. I'm sure we'll have some thoughts. It's always an interesting time. Otherwise, tune into some tournaments. Watch the baseball D1, D2, D3. Check it out. Ton of good baseball to watch and enjoy. Thanks everybody. Thank you for listening this week. If you're watching on YouTube, go ahead and hit that subscribe button and smash that like button for us. Check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts as well as Spotify. You can follow us on Twitter and Instagram MD Baseball. If you want to find out what me and Keith do to help families and players navigate the recruiting process, go ahead and check us out on emdbaseball.com take a few minutes to check out our new online academy. I promise you'll get some good information out of that. Thanks again for listening. Check in with you next week.