Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Leon Panetta: Former Defence Secretary and CIA Director on the US-Iran war

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Leon Panetta: Former Defence Secretary and CIA Director on the US-Iran war · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Trump says, along with offering $ 5, 000 to anyone who votes
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: for him, Trump said at this rally that the U.S.-Iran
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: war will end immediately after the midterms.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: They can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: and affect the election so that we can get a nice,
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: weak group of people in there and leave them alone
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: and let them have their nuclear weapons.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Now, his top advisers, according to the Wall Street Journal
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: this morning, privately warning it could drag on for the
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: rest of his term at least. Remember at the start
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: of the week I told you about Leon Panetta, the
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: former US Defence Secretary, former CIA Director. He warned this
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: could become another forever war in the Middle East for America. Well,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: we've managed to track him down. He currently serves as
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the Chairman for the Panetta Institute for Public Policy. Secretary
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Panetta is with me live this morning. Welcome to the programme.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Good to be with you, Ryan.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: A miracle if this thing ends immediately after the midterms?
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: I don't... I don't think that's likely to happen. Generally,
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: the president has lost a lot of credibility because he's
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: been talking about a new deal and something happening with
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: the war every few days, and it doesn't happen. And
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: I think this is another example of him saying that
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: ultimately everything will be fine after the midterms, but I
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: think the reality is the war will go on.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Secretary, we've also had overnight another development. This is the
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Houthis taking the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokka.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We've got the Strait of Hormuz choked up. If we
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: have the Red Sea choked up, we've got problems, haven't we?
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: Well, we're not only in a terrible stalemate with both
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: sides kind of running out of options, but it's also
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: increasingly dangerous. The Straits of Hormuz are pretty much closed,
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: and even though there are a few ships that try
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: to pass through, largely there's very little going through, and
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: gas prices and inflation are going up here in this country.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: In addition to that, there's no ceasefire, so both sides
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: are trading a tax without any clear objective. I assume
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: expecting that one side may either be willing to negotiate
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: or surrender, and that's not going to happen. And then lastly,
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: on the very issue that the president said this war
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: was all about, which is the nuclear issue, there is
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: absolutely no negotiation and no kind of discussion with regards
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: to the nuclear issue. And so Iran continues to maintain
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: control of enriched fuel. There aren't any inspections. and there's
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: frankly no end in sight.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: The enriched uranium, you were CIA director, does the CIA know,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I mean yeah there's no inspections, but will they know
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: exactly where it is?
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: Well they'll probably have intelligence on kind of the general
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: location of where it's at. A lot of it is
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: buried I'm sure as a result of the attacks that
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: were made during the war. But the bottom line is
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: we really don't know whether or not Iran had other
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: facilities available to enrich fuel and whether they have other
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: sources for enriched fuel. So we really, without any kind
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: of inspection, without any kind of negotiation on the issue,
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  Speaker 3: we really don't know where they're at when it comes
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: to the nuclear issue.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Secretary, how do you think this plays out then? Do
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: you think that when Trump leaves office, whoever takes over
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: is going to have to negotiate their way out of this?
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: Well, I don't think there's any question that ultimately what
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: is needed here are negotiators who are experienced, who know
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: what Iran is all about, who know uh... that they've
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: got a deal with a very tough regime in iran
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: you know even with the experience negotiators uh... president obama
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: it took almost two years to come to some kind
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: of agreement right now we don't have negotiators who are
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: experienced on iran were operating through intermediaries that best uh...
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: other countries like pakistan or egypt uh... and very frankly
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: they don't have our interests at heart. And so ultimately
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: what's needed here is a new president who will have
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: new negotiators who hopefully will be more experienced at the
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: ability to try to work out some kind of agreement
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: with Iran.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: What's your assessment of whether the Republicans will hold on
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: to the House and the Senate in the midterms?
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: Well, you know, right now because of what's happening with
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: the price of gas, which is now at very high
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: levels here in the United States, the price of fuel,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: the price of diesel, the price of the cost of food,
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: inflation is going up increasingly. We're in a trade war
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: with Canada as well as the rest of the world,
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: but in particular a trade war with Canada. I think
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: it was the Wall Street Journal said it's the dumbest
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: trade war we've ever gotten into, but that's going to
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: result in additional inflation for people in this country. And
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: we have this endless war on our hands as well.
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: And when you put all of that together, there is
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: an American public that really is very concerned about where
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: the country is going. I think it's almost 70% now
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: are very concerned about the future of the country. And
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: that tells me that I think if people vote their feelings,
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: that there's a good chance that the Democrats will take
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: control of the House. I think the Senate will be tighter,
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: but I think the Senate is in play as well.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Secretary, what about warfare, the future of warfare generally? We've
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: seen massive changes on the battlefield out of Ukraine. We've
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: got drones, we've got speedboats. It doesn't take much for...
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: a couple of terrorists to get their hands on these things,
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  Speaker 1: and they're cheap as chips. So what do you do
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  Speaker 1: about that?
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Well, that's the nature of warfare in the 21st century.
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: We're finding out. I think, you know, generally, everybody kind
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: of assumed that Russia, the United States, major military powers
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: that would always prevail, and obviously Russia prevailed. with the
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: invasion of Ukraine. Everybody thought it would be over in
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: a few days. It did not happen. Russia was stopped,
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: and now it's in the midst of a continuing war
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: using drones in their own homeland, being attacked by Ukraine.
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: And the same thing is true in Iran. We're seeing
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: the increased use of drones, the increased use of new technologies.
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: I think warfare is changing a great deal. And very frankly,
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: I think countries like the United States and others are
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: going to have to seriously think about how they're going
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  Speaker 3: to provide security in a century where, very frankly, weapons,
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: very usable, cheap weapons are being used to essentially change
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: the tone of the battle.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Leon Panetta, it's been a pleasure speaking with you. Thank
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: you very much for your time.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: Good to talk to you, Ryan.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Leon Panetta, former US Secretary of Defense, former director of
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the CIA.