Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 245: Warm Winter, Dry Plains, and the Weather Risks Facing Cattle Country with Gary Lezak

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245: Warm Winter, Dry Plains, and the Weather Risks Facing Cattle Country with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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  In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are talking about the
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  weather pattern and everything that is going on as far as the
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  weather is concerned for the next few months.
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  We hit on severe storms that might be coming up.
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  We talked about what is concerning about this weather
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  pattern, what's exciting about this weather pattern.
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  We touch on droughts. We touch on a bunch of different
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  things that are concerning for a lot of people.
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  Right now. We're having an abnormally warm
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  and dry winter. What does that mean for the rest
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  of the year? Gary answers all of those
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  questions in today's podcast episode.
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  Before we hop in and talk to Gary, if you're watching on
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  YouTube, make sure you take a second to go hit that subscribe
• 0:37
  button and like this episode. If you're watching on any of our
• 0:40
  other podcast platforms, make sure that you take a second to
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  go follow the show and write and review it as well.
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  Without further ado, let's go ahead and hear from Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
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  updates shaping agriculture today.
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  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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  agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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  Now let's dive into today's episode.
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  Good morning, Gary. Welcome back to the podcast.
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  Morning or good afternoon. Rainbow and Sunny are chomping
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  on bones back here. You might hear them.
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  Let's listen. Yep, there they.
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  Are, Yeah, they're, they're chewing.
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  There they are. You can sort of see there's
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  rainbow right behind me. Well, that's really weird.
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  I kicked the two youngest dogs out of the studio, but my older
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  dog is actually in my guest chair right over there taking a
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  nap right now. Yes, she is.
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  We were between episodes and I opened the door and she came in
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  here and she just made herself at home and started taking a
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  nap. And I was like, well, I'm not
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  going to disturb you. You can stay there as long as
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  long as you behave yourself over there and don't decide that you
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  need my attention. That is awesome.
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  So but yeah, everything's great. The dogs are good.
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  The winter is is in some respects 1/3 over, in some
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  respects less than a month in because if winter began December
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  20th, so so December 21st. So realistically, we're just
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  about a month in, but this has been an interesting winter
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  pattern and everyone out there in the in the Cattle USA region,
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  you know, we're having an interesting winter.
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  It's been warmer than average, as you know.
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  Yes, it definitely has. And we were talking before I was
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  asking you, are you going to go skiing this year?
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  All the things and Colorado still hasn't had enough snow.
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  My husband and I are going up to Deadwood, SD this weekend and
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  we're hopefully going to be able to get some ski time in there
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  because they have had plenty of snow.
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  So we will. Be going north instead of West.
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  They're going to get a little more in the next few days, so
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  you should be fine up in South Dakota skiing.
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  Oh yes. They're they're in the zone, but
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  but yeah, Colorado, Utah even down over California when they
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  get hit by storms have been getting a lot of snow, but
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  Colorado is yet to get wall off by one storm.
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  It's been there about 50 to 60% of their average snowfall for
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  the season and that's near historic lows.
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  If it if it, if they don't get much in the next month, it'll be
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  the worst, least snowiest winter ever.
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  So we'll see how that goes. Because those of you who've been
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  listening, the pattern that set up in October, November is
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  cycling and it's the pattern is not going to change until next
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  October. Now there's different phases to
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  that pattern. There's some opportunities we're
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  going to get the late winter, spring version of that pattern,
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  which is going to bring some differences.
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  But overall, it's been very consistent.
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  Are you concerned about moisture right now from what we've kind
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  of been seeing over the first cycle of this pattern and as we
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  kind of go into the second part of the cycle and things like
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  that, are you concerned about moisture that we've been seeing?
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  The fact that we haven't seen a lot of snow in our like Rocky
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  Mountain regions, We haven't seen a lot of snow just in
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  general, we've had an abnormally warm winter.
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  What are your concerns as far as like moisture and temperature
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  go? Well, let's look at the what's
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  been happening and here's what's been happening because droughts
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  are either expanding or shrinking in the past 30 days,
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  ending today that we're recording this in the middle of
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  January. In the last 30 days, it's been
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  really dry from Northeast Colorado, most of Colorado,
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  across almost all of Nebraska and South Dakota.
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  So that's the last 30 days in the past 90 days.
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  So overall, the wet weather has been across North Dakota, South
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  Dakota not as dry, but Nebraska still in that dry zone.
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  So we're watching Nebraska for a concern area for any potential
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  expanding drought. So that'll be something we'll be
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  looking at as we move into February and March.
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  But overall, there has been a wet little period from southwest
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  Kansas into central Kansas, North Central Kansas into Iowa
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  in the past 30 days and not snow, but rained and then very
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  dry over Oklahoma and Texas. So that's the area that we're
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  expecting a major heat wave this summer centered in late July,
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  early August. And we'll be looking at May for
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  that development as well. But remember we went two phases
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  of this year's cycling pattern. One of the phases is called
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  phase one. We are in that right now till
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  the near the end of this month and then by the end of January,
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  early February, we'll transition to phase two of the weather
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  pattern where storm systems are able to make it back into
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  California. But that usually warms up the
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  eastern half the country. So right now the next 2-3 weeks
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  we have we're susceptible for a cold blast, an Arctic blast and
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  possibly a winter storm or two. So as I said, South Dakota and
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  Iowa might be in the track of a couple of these in the next 10
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  days. But overall, it's a rather warm
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  and dry weather pattern, Lauren. Yeah, definitely.
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  And I think a lot of us are seeing that just in our daily
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  lives as we go throughout the year.
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  I mean, for gosh sakes, it was 60° here in Kansas the other day
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  and the sun was shining. Like I walked to the gym in
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  shorts and I was like, this is insane weather.
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  And I'm really just trying to enjoy all we can because I know
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  February is going to come around and that next shoe was probably
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  going to drop for a lot of us as we kind of look forward to that
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  next 30 or 60 days. What are you keeping your eye on
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  as far as that's concerned? The.
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  March, March might come in roaring like a lion.
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  So get ready. It looks this year like it's
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  going to come roaring in like a lion and out like a lamb.
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  So we'll see how that goes, how that goes this year.
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  But the weather patterns right on schedule.
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  Here's something interesting that that I stumbled across.
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  I just got back from Farm Con. A lot of people.
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  It was nice to see all of you and meet all of you out there.
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  A lot of farmers, a few dairy farmers and you know out there
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  as well. And it was great to have
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  conversations with people. And that was in Kansas City.
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  I spoke, gave the forecast for the next few months and just had
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  some really good conversations out there.
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  So, but while when I got home this past weekend, I was
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  updating the LRC index. One of the signature storms is
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  that California storm that we've talked about.
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  And California got blasted October 14th.
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  Right then there we knew California was going to have a
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  wet season ahead, above average rainfall against all other
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  forecasts that said it'd be dry out there.
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  Well, we're wondering when that part of the pattern is going to
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  return. It returned around the holiday
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  week, Major storms came into California.
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  I flew the leaked out to experience it and they got
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  blasted by a storm. We then identified that those
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  cycle, the weather pattern is cycling about every 10 to 11
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  weeks. We could say put an exact number
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  on it. 73 days is maybe that middle number.
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  So that's top secret information that you guys are all in on.
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  Watch what happens in the weather for the year ahead all
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  the way through next September mark down when there's a big
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  event, maybe there's a severe weather setup for you and you
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  have severe weather. Just know 73 days later you'll
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  probably have another setup within a couple days of that.
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  So when I came home I updated my research looking and San
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  Francisco again and Seattle and Kansas City and Bismarck and
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  Boston and Paris, France. When I updated Paris, France, I
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  noticed just like in San Francisco there was a big dip
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  that just happened January 6th to 10th.
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  I was like wow, what happened there?
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  Will they name their storms in Europe through some sources?
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  Like they named this one storm Goretti GORRITII?
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  Think Goretti cause major travel disruptions. 100 mile per hour
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  winds recorded heavy snow and impacts over Europe for about
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  four days. What happened 73 days before?
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  Because my chart shows there was another dip perfectly right on
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  schedule. Paris, France had a tornado.
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  There were tornadoes and high winds and major major storm
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  system they called storm Benjamin.
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  So only you listening now I understand that storm Benjamin
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  in October happened 7270370475 days before storm Goretti
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  California on October 14th major storm. 7273 days later, major
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  storm, there's the theme Paris, France, Europe and North
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  America. The same cycling weather pattern
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  is occurring all across. So the exciting thing for me,
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  it's like this is clear, strong validation that it's the entire
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  northern hemisphere that has a cycling pattern.
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  And so that's how, if you're wondering how we do get the
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  forecast accurately predicted, it's because we're using that
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  centerpiece of the atmospheric jigsaw puzzle, the LRC, that
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  others do not understand. If you read my stuff, a
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  meteorologist like, and quickly maybe in a year's time really
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  start to figure this out, but they don't read it for some
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  reason. I don't know what it is, but
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  that's fine. It keeps us having an advantage
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  and providing that advantage for you.
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  Absolutely. As we look out talking about
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  excitement and things like that, what in this pattern are you
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  excited for that you're like, this is going to be great or
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  interesting to track, but then what else are you kind of like?
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  Oh, I don't that's that's a little concerning.
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  I'm still more concerned than excited because this this
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  pattern has what's called an anchorage.
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  We've talked about it. An anchorage is where storm
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  systems will more often weaken and be less frequent.
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  One of these anchor ridges extends from Texas and Oklahoma
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  across New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming into northeastern Utah,
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  Idaho, southern southern Montana Sources are able to go up and
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  over this Ridge. But when they come through
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  there, they they sort of die. And as they're dying, they have
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  been able to produce 2 inches of rain in Kansas, believe it or
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  not. So, so even though you're near
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  an anchor Ridge and you're getting a weakening storm,
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  you're going to not have the big snowstorm.
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  You end up with a big rainstorm, which is what happened in the
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  fall. OK.
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  So, so just know that these anchor ridges don't mean you're
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  going to get nothing but it, it's less exciting if you're
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  interested in weather like me. And it's a real phenomenon that
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  is that also a new concept to science, anchor ridges and
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  anchor troughs and anchor troughs off the West Coast and
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  one near the northeastern Great Lakes into New England and maybe
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  just off the East Coast. So storm system will intensify
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  as they head towards that and they'll intensify as they head
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  towards this through in the Pacific.
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  And then they hit California and then they die.
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  Right now, California's underneath are blocking Ridge
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  and that'll happen for two more weeks.
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  That's also part of the second pattern.
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  Then it breaks down and they'll get hit and it's going to be
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  interesting because the computer models say it's going to be warm
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  and dry out there for 30 more days.
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  They're wrong. I already know that they're
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  wrong, but it's frustrating. Lauren, I know those models that
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  everyone else uses. This is the GFS model, the
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  European model, the Canadian model, the ICON model.
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  Some of you might know these models, everyone else uses these
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  models and they could show 15 days from now completely dry
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  when I know that they're wrong. And then it might take till
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  three days, four days before, 10 days after they show those wrong
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  models that they finally catch on to the real pattern.
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  So right near the end of January we're going to test main because
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  the models right now are showing boring and drive forever in
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  California. No chance of a storm system
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  forever for like 30 more days. I know they're wrong and I have
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  to buy hands up because I have to wait for those models to show
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  to start showing the storm system.
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  I can't just say, hey, look at that, there's a storm showing up
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  when there isn't 1 even though the LRC says there should be 1
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  and will be 1. So I have high confidence I can
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  give you an example after example after example.
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  It's not 100%, no. There's still a chance that
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  something could deflect these stores away from California.
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  Soon. As I say that though, today will
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  be the day I was in the model switches and it's going to start
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  picking up on what the LRC says. The LRC is the blueprint of the
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  atmosphere. We have found the DNA of the
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  atmosphere. So we know what is likely going
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  to happen 20 days from now, 100 days from now.
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  And it is the pattern itself is going to be right.
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  Predicting that for your location still very difficult.
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  Yeah, definitely. As we look out into the next few
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  weeks, the next few months, is there anything else that we kind
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  of need to hit on in the weather that we haven't talked about yet
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  today? Well, we just have a phase one
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  and a phase two-part of the pattern.
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  Phase one now phase two at the end of the month in the first
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  half of February, back to phase one, back to phase two again in
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  the first week of March, then back to phase one.
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  Then the rainy season is going to end out on the West Coast in
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  April and May and we go into our spring severe weather season.
• 15:01
  One of our customers is Operation BBQ Relief.
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  They send stage and, and, and if there's a hurricane, they'll be
• 15:07
  the first on the scene with, with disaster relief supplies
• 15:12
  and food to help support the first responders and people
• 15:16
  suffering through a disaster. And so they use our forecast.
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  And so right now I'm in the process of working on the severe
• 15:23
  weather outlook for them. So then they can prepare months
• 15:26
  in advance on when they'll probably need their resources.
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  We've been accurately predicting these hurricanes and severe
• 15:32
  weather outbreaks for them. So I'm putting that together.
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  We'll talk about that in two or three weeks.
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  Very exciting. Thank you so much and as always,
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  just thank you for your time, your insight, your knowledge
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  that you share with us here every single week.
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  To all of our listeners, if anything that Gary talked about
• 15:50
  today interest you, make sure you check out the show notes
• 15:52
  down below. I have every single one of
• 15:54
  Gary's possible links that you can need from his sub stack to
• 15:58
  more information on Weather 2020, the software, the global
• 16:01
  predictor, all of the different things that him and his company
• 16:04
  offer. So Gary, thank you for your time
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  and to all of our listeners out there, we will see you all next
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  week on another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
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  Have a good one y'all.