Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Venture Capitalists, Girl Dads & The (British) Open with Kyle Murray

Transcript

Venture Capitalists, Girl Dads & The (British) Open with Kyle Murray · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Kravitt to your host. Back at it with my people,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: the Prime Minister of Degen Nation Stuckey, who has now
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: once again re released BBOC College Football Edition. Make sure
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: you go and check that out because the college football
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: season is right around the corner. The first Lady of
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: the pod, Kendra Middleton, is here. Evan Abrams statsound is
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: looming as well. We are down to the final four
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: in the World Cup, or really, I guess the final
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: three by the time you're listening to this. Jordan Walker
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: is our home Run Derby champion. Shout out to Kerner
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: for nailing that one. And we are nine Sundays away
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: from a full slate of NFL action. Kendra, I've waited
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: as long as I could, and I officially have the bug.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: I'm excited about the preseason, let alone the start of
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: the regular season. I'm I mean, I love me some baseball,
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: but I'm ready for some football.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: I went through this whole thing on my Saturday show
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: about how I don't want to wish summer away because
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: I'm such a sun baby, and I hate the winter here,
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: but I truly would kill for a Browns Jets Thursday
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: night football game right now.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, definitely got a hankering for that. So some
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: shitty football would be just fine. Stucky however, the projections
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: going across the college football landscape, and what do you
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: have coming up on BBOC that the folks can check out?
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, BBOC, I'll be back next week with the primary kickoff.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: We have a few episodes that are out now that
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: are worth checking out, I think with Phil Steele.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Stanford.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Steed just recorded one. But we'll do the main kickoff
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: and then we'll do all the conference previews. Will be
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: every single team basically starting next week through you know,
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: the first or second week of August, we'll have every
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: single all one hundred and thirty eight teams covered. So
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: I've gone through all every team, every roster, updated everything.
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: I have to do it all again next month and
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: then do it all again the night before each podcast,
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: I'll run through again, update, brought news, injuries, blah blah blah.
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: So now I'm on the NFL. I'm the last two
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: nights I've done updated the AFC. Next two nights I'll
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: do the NFC. We'll have some preview content coming next
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: week next month for that as well. Check out the
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Action Network at probably has some wind totals and futures
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: coming out. But yeah, in the thick of in the
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: thick of previews right now and updating everything and going
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: through rosters, and it's one of my favorite things to do,
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: just trying to figure out the puzzle.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: I conversely have been playing bea Sports College Football twenty
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: seven to get used to the roster changes. So just
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: shows you the different research research. That's what I That's
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: what I said. We were going to go to the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: grocery store this week, and I said, we can't leave yet.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I've got to play as UCF. So I understand the
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: some of the roster changes. And they got a new quarterback,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: they got a new running back. We got to you know,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: we've got to comb through this stuff.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Kyle Murray British Open preview coming up on today's episode
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: will give you some of our plant the Flag bets
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: for the Open. The estate of Paul g Allen has
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: now made enough money to power a rocket to Neptune
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: nine point six billion dollars off of the sale of
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks. This ranks is the second largest sports
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: franchise transaction into North American history, trailing only the sale
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: of the LA Lakers. The nod Kolsha seventy one years old.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: A venture capitalist bought the team, Kendra, I think I
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: got into the the wrong line of work. I should
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: have been a venture capitalists, because these folks are doing
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: quite well for.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: Themselves venture capitalism, private equity. However, you want to sell
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: your soul, I guess.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Nine point six billion dollars Stuckey. It's hard to fathom
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: how much these sports franchises are worth. What would you estimate?
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Like if the Seahawks are going for nine point six
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I know they just won the Super Bowl, I would
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: think the Cowboys are probably in like the fifteen billion range, Steelers, Packers,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Like I was.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Gonna say, like Knicks come to mind now, because who
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: do we think is worth more money? The Seahawks are
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: the nexts. You know, you own the building you play in,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: so Nicks.
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: Are their Nicks are probably above that, but like the
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: highest enup, like the Cowboys are probably like thirteen to fifteen,
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: Seahawks probably, I mean Nick's probably around like ten ish,
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: so close around the Seahawks.
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: Do we think Kansas City would be nowadays.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: North of Seattle? Sure, in between Seattle and Dallas. I
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: would say twelve and a half confidently, the Hunt family.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that high.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: I think the Chiefs would be like I think the
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: Chiefs wouldn't be I think they would be like ten
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: Ori Ish Danish. Maybe a little below, but let's say four.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: We priced the everyday man out of the owning NFL
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: team business, I can tell.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: Except for the Packers.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: So the Forbes list as of nine of twenty twenty five,
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: the Cowboys were number one at thirteen billion. The Rams
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: were number two. Location matters here as well. The Rams
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: are number two ten and a half billion, the Giants
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: number three at ten billion, Pats nine billion, forty nine
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: ors not around nine billion?
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Patriots, Yeah, the Patriots for sure.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Chiefs were.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: The Chiefs were number twenty two at six billion.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: Real estate really plays into that.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Ok, that's a Missouri versus Seattle Washington thing, I guess.
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 6:09
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: And there revenue their revenue too, like there do they
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: take that.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: Like you know what, they're not accounting for the fact
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: that they now have mister Swift though, like that adds zero's.
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: Their revenue, Like the the Cowboys revenue is one point
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: two billion, The Chiefs revenue was like six hundred million,
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: so about half.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, these are some big time deals.
• 6:39
  Speaker 6: Well.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Also, the guy was a part owner of the forty
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: nine ers most recently, and I was reading some of
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the comments from Seattle Seahawks fans not happy about it.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Should that matter to people that this guy was a
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: part owner, Like I think of it, When someone has
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: that much money, they're detached from emotion and it's all
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: just business and logic. So and fans are the complete opposite.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: It's all emotion, it's no logic. I don't think this
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: is great. Cares at all disagree because.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: I think if you're going to spend money somewhere and
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: one of them is making you more money than the other,
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: you're obviously going to give that one preferential treatment.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Well yeah, but he's not. I'm sure that he's no
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: longer a part owner of the forty nine ers. I
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: would think you would have to divest your.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: I would hope so.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: But like you're kind of asking if that should matter,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: and I think it should for that reason.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I don't care. By the way, Kelsey will be off
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs by the time the Hunt family sells. One
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: other note in the NFL, Aaron Donald was seen practicing
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: with the Rams. Feels like this really could happen. How
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: much should a thirty five year old Aaron Donald paired
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: with a Miles Garrett in his prime terrify the rest
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: of the league? Stucky? Is this is the Rams defense?
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: On paper? People probably look at the NFL and say
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the Rams have the best defense. They really don't if
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: they add Aaron Donald. I think you can start to
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: make that case if you think Aaron Donald is still
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Aaron Donald.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I will say, well, counterpoint to Ken's
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: point about Taylor Swift with the way Kelsey might look
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: on the field this year, that he might be dragging
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: down the value of the Chiefs franchise. But I would
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: I mean, when it comes to Aaron Donald, I don't
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: think anyone really knows for sure, Like no one's gonna
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: be able to He hasn't played in three years, right,
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: He's still in like amazing shape. But there's a difference
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: between like amazing shape and game shape.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: And but here's the thing, just ask Connor McGregor about.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: That you you don't need, like they don't need if
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: Donald plays, and I think he's up to like I
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: saw some of the markets up to like eighty five
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: percent to sign with a team before the start of
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: the season, I think I saw that they don't need
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: Donald to be who Donald was, you know, in his prime,
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: and they don't even need him to be who he
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: was at the very end of his career. They like,
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: he can just be a you know, he doesn't He's
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: not gonna They're not gonna ask him to play every snap.
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: He can come in and just provide some splash plays
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: and just be a menace on very specific down, in
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: distances and in certain packages. He certainly could be a problem.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: How much of a problem, I don't know. I don't
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: think anyone really knows after being away for three years
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: and what it would look like. But it certainly wouldn't
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: hurt to get a Hall of Famer back and throw
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: them in to that defensive line. But you gotta remember,
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: like they're not they don't need him to be with
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: the way that their team is, they don't need him
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: to be like every day Aaron Dond, every down Aaron Donald,
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: but just being able to come in on, you know,
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: certain passing downs and just provide another ferocious body up front,
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: paired with Garrett and the others that they have there. Certainly,
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: if I'm a I'm welcoming him back with ope and
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: arms Andrew.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: It does feel like as much as anything in the
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: NFL could be a foregone conclusion, which it never is,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: because the way that this league works with parody with health.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I mean the Dodgers, it feels like you go into
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball season, It's like, okay, well, if
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: all their stars stay healthy, there's no way anybody beats them.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Same market. It kind of feels like that with the Rams.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: If Aaron Donald were to join the team. Is that
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: overstating things in your opinion?
• 10:35
  Speaker 7: For me?
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: Like, I don't think it really comes down to the
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: ceiling of their star players. I think it comes down
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: to Matt Stafford's health more than anything else. But on
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the Aaron Donald front, I just think, all right, let's
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: say he is a shell of himself or God forbid,
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: something happens to him injury wise. It is a net
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: positive to have that amount of experience in your locker room,
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: let alone, like the leadership that you got out of
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: So there's you know, really no negative as long as
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: they aren't prioritizing him if he's not in game shape.
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: I also would say the other thing with the Rams,
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: but we talked about it before, but last year the
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: Rams they stayed very healthy. It's a team that needs
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: to stay healthy. Not enough, not enough people are talking
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: about this most likely suspension of Alaric Jackson. The blindside
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: tackle was very good for Matt Stafford, who's thirty eight.
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: Looks like he's going to enter the diversion program, which
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: is I think of mandatory six game suspension at least
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: since he's already been in there and been suspended for
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: two games. So not having your left tackle for six
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: games and then him not being you know, in game
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: form to start the year, that's that's I think also
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: an important conversation when it comes to the Rams.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, if Donald signs, there no doubt they will start
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the sea at the top of everybody's power rankings and
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: certainly will be the highest power rated team going into
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six NFL season. A lot more of
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: that to come on the Favorites over the next couple
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: of weeks. Coming up next a touch of class as
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: we discussed the British Open with Kyle Murray. But first
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: let's chat about the top of the class when it
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: comes to all things sports betting. The Draftking Sports app.
• 12:22
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  Speaker 4: The crown is yours.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Hile Murray projections analyst over at roto Grinders a man
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: who wears many hats, including a Fedora. Hi. Welcome back
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: to the show, Chip, Chip, Cheerio. Ready for the British Open.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: How you doing, my friend?
• 13:01
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm doing good. This is always a fun tournament
• 13:04
  Speaker 6: for me because I'm on night Owl. I have a
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: terrible sleep schedule, so it's great to stay up super
• 13:09
  Speaker 6: late and then watch these guys tee off at odds
• 13:11
  Speaker 6: odd hours of the night. So I'm looking forward to it.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Let's talk first and foremost about the course. That's where
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: we always need to start when it comes to any
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: of these big tournaments. Royal Birkdale. What can you tell
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: us about it? What do betters need to know about
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the layout of this golf course.
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, we last saw.
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: This course on the Open rotation in twenty seventeen, but
• 13:32
  Speaker 6: a lot of major renovations happened.
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: On this one.
• 13:35
  Speaker 6: Pretty Much every hole was touched to a minor extent,
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: with a couple of major changes here on different holes
• 13:41
  Speaker 6: and including a couple holes that are just entirely different completely.
• 13:44
  Speaker 6: You look at the power four fifth hole that's now driveable,
• 13:47
  Speaker 6: So I think that's going to bring in some new
• 13:49
  Speaker 6: things into the data set that we're looking at. Comparing
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: to a twenty seventeen data. I mean, for me personally,
• 13:55
  Speaker 6: it's almost ten years, so that stuff does get sort
• 13:57
  Speaker 6: of muted to me in terms of what I'm kind
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: of calibrating for this week. But it is worth noting
• 14:02
  Speaker 6: that for anybody that is looking at what we saw
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: in twenty seventeen.
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: A lot of changes to the course.
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: Obviously at any Overseas Open event here, we're going to
• 14:11
  Speaker 6: have that link style course where again wind is going
• 14:14
  Speaker 6: to really play a major factor. I know we talked
• 14:16
  Speaker 6: about that a little bit at the US Open at Shinnecock,
• 14:18
  Speaker 6: but it's going to be potentially even more of a
• 14:20
  Speaker 6: crucial thing here. Obviously last week at the Scottish Open,
• 14:24
  Speaker 6: similar sort of vibe there with a course that again
• 14:27
  Speaker 6: it can be fairly easy if the wind is fairly calm,
• 14:29
  Speaker 6: like it was last week. But for a style of
• 14:32
  Speaker 6: link style course like we have this week, I'm not
• 14:35
  Speaker 6: really expecting a ton of calm wind here. From what
• 14:38
  Speaker 6: I'm saying, we could see anywhere from twenty mile pour
• 14:41
  Speaker 6: winds pretty steady at least in these first couple of days,
• 14:43
  Speaker 6: but again wind can change in the forecast, and so
• 14:46
  Speaker 6: it's always important to look at that. But from what
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: I've seen on social media and around some of the
• 14:50
  Speaker 6: media stuff reporting here, very very firm conditions. So it's
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: going to be a spot where it's almost like a
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: completely different style of golf at times where we've seen
• 14:59
  Speaker 6: guys talk about they're hitting their five irons and that's
• 15:01
  Speaker 6: running out over three hundred yards, So it's going to
• 15:04
  Speaker 6: really change the game for a lot of these guys.
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: And it's important to know kind of some of these
• 15:08
  Speaker 6: guys who are used to playing in these elements, maybe
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: some guys who have games that can potentially fit for
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: a profile like that. So certainly a different style of
• 15:17
  Speaker 6: golf and were typically used to singing, but it certainly
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: makes for some exciting intricacies for this week.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: You mentioned the styles. One of the things I was
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: reading about is that each of the last eight winners
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: have finished it have finished inside of the top five
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: in terms of scrambling in the week that they won. Basically,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: it's been the guys who can win in a gritty fashion.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Who does that favor in an event like this?
• 15:40
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's certainly an important metric here, especially when you
• 15:43
  Speaker 6: consider all of the bunkers, all the pop bunkers that
• 15:45
  Speaker 6: you're going to see a lot of guys, you know,
• 15:46
  Speaker 6: I talk about, you know, these shots that are going
• 15:49
  Speaker 6: to roll out. Some guys are going to you know,
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: purposely lay behind some of these bunkers and the ball
• 15:54
  Speaker 6: is just going to roll out into these bunkers. Obviously,
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: the wind can play a factor in terms of making
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: guys sort of spray. So the in terms of the
• 16:00
  Speaker 6: bunker play, the scrambling, and the shortcame play, it's going
• 16:03
  Speaker 6: to be certainly very important this week. For me in particular,
• 16:06
  Speaker 6: I sort of tried to create a metric specifically for
• 16:08
  Speaker 6: guys who have scrambled well at link style courses or
• 16:11
  Speaker 6: courses that are potentially similar. Obviously, when you're looking at
• 16:14
  Speaker 6: bigger data samples, you're sort of nitpicking at times, but
• 16:18
  Speaker 6: you know, the guy who has the best scrambling on
• 16:21
  Speaker 6: these specific courses is Matt Fitzpatrick for me, so he's
• 16:24
  Speaker 6: going to be someone that is going to benefit from there.
• 16:27
  Speaker 6: In terms of overall scramble rate, Sky Scheffler is number two,
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: Russell Henley is there in the top five as well.
• 16:33
  Speaker 6: Tommy Fleetwood's sort of got a hometown advantage this week.
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: He's in the top five of scramble percentage in this field.
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: So guys like that really checked a lot of boxes
• 16:41
  Speaker 6: in terms of scrambling and shortcamee prowess.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: For the casuals like myself who haven't indulged in the
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: most golf since the last time we spoke with you,
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: can you give us a spark notes on this season
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: on some of the favorites, and is there anyone that
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: you're keeping an eye on that may or may not
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: play well in wind or rain just because the weather,
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: like you, might be unpredictable.
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean in terms of the some of these
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: top end guys.
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: Obviously, we saw Rory go a little bit viral last
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: week for you know, kind of commenting on his own
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: golf game, you know, hitting a couple of bad shots
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: and saying that he's so bad at golf or it's
• 17:14
  Speaker 6: the worst shot he's ever heard. So that was something
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: that was interesting from one of the bigger names in golf.
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: Scotti.
• 17:19
  Speaker 6: Scheffler is on a cold streak here. He missed his
• 17:22
  Speaker 6: first cut last week. I think it was seventy eight
• 17:24
  Speaker 6: consecutive made cuts, missed the cut last week at the
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: Scottish Open. So that was sort of his health freezing
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: over kind of vibe there with Scotti Scheffler finally missing
• 17:32
  Speaker 6: a cut. But obviously a lot of lift players are
• 17:36
  Speaker 6: going to be entering.
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: The fold here.
• 17:38
  Speaker 6: They were able to play, some of them were able
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: to play last week because they have DP World Tour membership,
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: So that's going to add a few more guys.
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: To the fold there.
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: In terms of big names, we're gonna see Bryson to
• 17:47
  Speaker 6: shambau teaed up this week. In terms of the wind,
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: for me, a lot of guys who are popping as
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: potentially bad wind players.
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: Some notable names.
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: Max Holmes at the bottom of the score scorecard for
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: me in terms of strokes gain in wind. Unfortunately. Cam
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: Young one of my favorite golfers. He has a bad
• 18:04
  Speaker 6: win scorer, but he's also one of those guys who,
• 18:07
  Speaker 6: like I mentioned before, with the great scrambling. He is
• 18:10
  Speaker 6: a top twelve scrambler in these sorts of courses, so
• 18:14
  Speaker 6: he benefits from Maybe that's a weakness for him in
• 18:16
  Speaker 6: terms of playing in the wind, but I think he
• 18:18
  Speaker 6: can certainly do some things to make up for it.
• 18:20
  Speaker 6: Jake Knapp is in the bottom five of wind strokes gain,
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: but fairly low rounds played sample size for him. Ricky
• 18:27
  Speaker 6: Fowler's bad in the wind. Cam Smith is bad in
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: the wind, which is surprising considering he's a former Open winner.
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: But those are some of the names that sort of
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: stick out in terms of being bad in the wind.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Kravit's mentioned how it is crucial to have experience and
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: potentially multiple major championship wins on a course like this,
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: But can you talk me off of Tommy Fleetwood?
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: Man?
• 18:49
  Speaker 6: Talking to you off of tom Fleetwood is tough for me.
• 18:51
  Speaker 6: I really like Fleetwood this week. I kind of mentioned
• 18:53
  Speaker 6: the hometown aspect. I know, we kind of had this
• 18:55
  Speaker 6: conversation about Cam Young at the US Open, considering he's
• 18:59
  Speaker 6: a New York native, and I think that that is
• 19:01
  Speaker 6: something that maybe is tough to sort of bet into
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: because it's something that I think it's a narrative base
• 19:07
  Speaker 6: thing that is maybe driving guys to click Cam Young.
• 19:10
  Speaker 6: But for Tommy Fleetwood, when I say the hometown, Araive,
• 19:12
  Speaker 6: I think that's actually something that you can potentially quantify
• 19:15
  Speaker 6: this week. He's someone who's played a ton and sort
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: of in these sorts of conditions and these sorts of
• 19:20
  Speaker 6: environments in terms of the weather, the course style, and whatnot.
• 19:24
  Speaker 6: So I think that really benefits Tommy Fleetwood. That all
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: comes to fruition in terms of the data as well
• 19:28
  Speaker 6: as he's one of the better links games players top
• 19:31
  Speaker 6: ten in terms of wind strokes gained. I mentioned the scrambling,
• 19:34
  Speaker 6: So I think a lot of things look really good
• 19:36
  Speaker 6: for Tommy Fleetwood. We have seen the approach game in
• 19:39
  Speaker 6: terms of the top end approach stuff that we've seen
• 19:41
  Speaker 6: from Tommy Fleewood over the course of his career sort
• 19:43
  Speaker 6: of fall off a little bit in terms of the
• 19:45
  Speaker 6: last fifty rounds or so, but other than that, there's
• 19:48
  Speaker 6: really no holes to poke in Fleetwood's resume. For me
• 19:51
  Speaker 6: this week, it's one of my favorite golfers of the week.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: Well, Cole, you mentioned Scheffler, who just missed a cut,
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: and one of the first things that jumped out to
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: me looking at the odds board was that Scheffler's like
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: back at a normal range, right, I mean, one's the
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: last I was seeing seven to one. I feel like
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: that he's been a lot lower than that. I don't
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: know for the last couple of years. Is there any
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: reason to be concerned about Scheffler And are you actually
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: showing value at possibly a slightly more generous price heading
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: into this weekend.
• 20:22
  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's been kind of strange because, you know, typically
• 20:25
  Speaker 6: over the last few years of betting golf, like I
• 20:28
  Speaker 6: don't tend to find myself getting into the markets where
• 20:31
  Speaker 6: you're seeing you know, single digit odds in the outright market.
• 20:35
  Speaker 6: But for Scotti Scheffler this year specifically, it's been strange
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: because a lot of the numbers that he's been putting
• 20:40
  Speaker 6: on vaper have still looked great. Obviously, for Scotti Schffler
• 20:44
  Speaker 6: to compete with Scottie Scheffler standards that he's set over
• 20:47
  Speaker 6: the last couple of years, that's a difficult thing for
• 20:49
  Speaker 6: anybody to do. And then obviously, when you look at
• 20:51
  Speaker 6: him finally missing a cut, seems like maybe the markets
• 20:54
  Speaker 6: are sort of finally cooling off here. But I've actually
• 20:57
  Speaker 6: been showing either being right around market value or showing
• 21:01
  Speaker 6: an edge on Scotti Shuffer in the outright market pretty
• 21:03
  Speaker 6: consistently over the last maybe month or so, even on
• 21:05
  Speaker 6: some of these shorter numbers. So I'm seeing an eight
• 21:07
  Speaker 6: to one out there right now for Scotty Shuffer. I
• 21:09
  Speaker 6: think that's a pretty good number. I would say that
• 21:11
  Speaker 6: that's right around where I project him, or maybe even
• 21:14
  Speaker 6: a slight value based on my projections right now. So
• 21:16
  Speaker 6: I do think that this is probably a good time
• 21:19
  Speaker 6: to buy Scottis Shuffer because again that he's still looking
• 21:22
  Speaker 6: fairly elite in terms of all the categories that I'm
• 21:24
  Speaker 6: looking at. Number one in Strokeskan total over the last
• 21:28
  Speaker 6: twelve months, number one in total shop skin over the
• 21:30
  Speaker 6: last fifty rounds. He's number one in strokeskin t degree
• 21:33
  Speaker 6: over the last twenty four rounds. So even with that
• 21:36
  Speaker 6: miscut last week, he's still, you know, looking like he's
• 21:39
  Speaker 6: in very very good form, and obviously some of the
• 21:42
  Speaker 6: public sentiment is falling off on him right now.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: And then when you look at this field as far
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: as like what you're weighing, I would assume being a
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: very good wedge player, you know, at like one hundred
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: and in on a lot of these par fours is
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: going to be super important. And then if you're over
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: relying on your driver, it's probably going to be you
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: did this week. So curious your thoughts there. Then I
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: have a couple of guys I wanted to ask you about.
• 22:04
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I definitely do agree on on the driver aspect
• 22:07
  Speaker 6: that I pretty much muted or really really dumped a
• 22:11
  Speaker 6: lot of the value in terms of driving distance off
• 22:14
  Speaker 6: of my model this week. I just think that a
• 22:16
  Speaker 6: lot of guys don't even necessarily need to hit driver
• 22:19
  Speaker 6: uncertain holes. I think, you know, like the quote, I
• 22:21
  Speaker 6: think it was speak that mentioned he had a five
• 22:24
  Speaker 6: iron that went over three hundred yards.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: I mean a lot of these courses.
• 22:28
  Speaker 6: Are these holes on this course aren't even going to
• 22:30
  Speaker 6: necessarily need a driver. I certainly think guys can still
• 22:33
  Speaker 6: gain strokes on certain holes, and especially if the wind
• 22:35
  Speaker 6: is a factor like they can potentially find some volatility
• 22:38
  Speaker 6: with the driver off the tee. But I think a
• 22:40
  Speaker 6: lot of guys are going to even you know, settle
• 22:42
  Speaker 6: for a lesson driver in a lot of spots here.
• 22:45
  Speaker 6: I do think that opens up some potential importance for
• 22:48
  Speaker 6: long iron play. So I do agree that the wedge
• 22:51
  Speaker 6: is certainly going to be important here, especially with scrambling
• 22:53
  Speaker 6: and whatnot. But I do think for me, the most
• 22:56
  Speaker 6: important yardage bucket that I'm grading out this week for
• 22:59
  Speaker 6: approach play is one fifty to two hundred yards and
• 23:01
  Speaker 6: then two hundred yards plus shots are gonna be my
• 23:04
  Speaker 6: second most important approach bucket for this week. So I
• 23:07
  Speaker 6: do think long iron play is also gonna be very
• 23:09
  Speaker 6: crucial this week.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: Got it and then two guys, Hopefully I'd better luck
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: the lot. Last time I asked you about Sam Burns,
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: that was my horse, and just sure this this week
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at too. I think Kravits you were you
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: were one major too soon on potentially backing Henley. I
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: think Henley's game fits well here. I think he has
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: back to back top ten finishes at the Open, and
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: then potentially Sibu Kim. Do you have any thoughts on
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: Henley and Kim.
• 23:40
  Speaker 6: Yeah. Henley is a guy who's always pretty steady for
• 23:42
  Speaker 6: me in my model, a very steady player in terms.
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: Of what we get from him.
• 23:45
  Speaker 6: He's had some struggles in majors this year to sixty
• 23:48
  Speaker 6: five at the US Open, missed the cut the PGA,
• 23:50
  Speaker 6: but I mentioned, you know, the short game, the scrambling
• 23:53
  Speaker 6: stuff that really grades out as a positive for Russell
• 23:56
  Speaker 6: Henley in terms of his win play. He's not someone
• 23:58
  Speaker 6: that's necessarily going to you know, blow you off of
• 24:01
  Speaker 6: your seat. In terms of his win play, I think
• 24:03
  Speaker 6: I have him in the top forty, but he's also
• 24:04
  Speaker 6: not going to hurt himself in that realm.
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: Kind of created an open pedigree metric.
• 24:09
  Speaker 6: I think last time at the US Open, I talked
• 24:11
  Speaker 6: about a major pedigree trying to sort of identify guys
• 24:14
  Speaker 6: who might be able to perform well in certain conditions
• 24:17
  Speaker 6: in certain environments, and for me this week, it's a
• 24:20
  Speaker 6: little bit different because it comes down to a lot
• 24:22
  Speaker 6: of wind play and whatnot, and these sorts of styles
• 24:25
  Speaker 6: of courses, and obviously scrambling.
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: Is an important part of that metric as well.
• 24:28
  Speaker 6: Or alsoll Henley grades out in the top fifteen of
• 24:29
  Speaker 6: open pedigree for me this week, so I do like
• 24:31
  Speaker 6: Kenley And then you said, see what kim for the
• 24:33
  Speaker 6: next game, right, Yeah? Yeah, He's also someone who grades
• 24:35
  Speaker 6: out pretty well, thirtieth in terms of open pedigree, but
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: six in terms of wind strokes gain, fifteenth in terms
• 24:41
  Speaker 6: of form. He has sort of struggled with the putter
• 24:43
  Speaker 6: at times, but when looking at some of these strokes
• 24:47
  Speaker 6: gained putting metrics on slow greens, this is going to
• 24:49
  Speaker 6: be a very interesting surface in terms of putting greens.
• 24:53
  Speaker 6: We saw it a little bit last week. But when
• 24:55
  Speaker 6: you look at majors like the US Open, where they
• 24:57
  Speaker 6: wanted that to play really fast and firm, that's going
• 25:00
  Speaker 6: to be the case. It's going to be very firm,
• 25:02
  Speaker 6: But when you get to the greens, it's going to
• 25:03
  Speaker 6: be these bescue greens that are going to make it
• 25:05
  Speaker 6: extremely slow. I think that's a very different environment for putting.
• 25:09
  Speaker 6: So for someone they see don't have a lot of
• 25:11
  Speaker 6: data on those slow putting greens, but he is someone
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: that gets a fairly decent grade considering what his baseline
• 25:18
  Speaker 6: putting is who he's someone who three puts a lot.
• 25:20
  Speaker 6: He's fairly rough in terms of his overall putting consistency,
• 25:24
  Speaker 6: but he is still someone that he doesn't necessarily lose
• 25:27
  Speaker 6: putting strengths in terms of going to these slow greens.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Got it. If you want someone that's gonna have you
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: landing in second place stuck, he's your guy. Sam Burns
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: finished second in the US Open. Now you know that
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: takes some skill. What takes real skill is giving you
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: the guy who finishes sixty fifth, which is what I
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: handed you last time with Russell Henley. So we'll see
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: if we can back that up again. I'm not going
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: the Henley route, but perhaps that's where Stucky will go
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: when we plant our flag. At the end of the episode,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Kendro back to you.
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: I have a follow up. Someone I'm watching as well.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Justin Rose, has been someone who surprised me as a
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: casual the few times I have watched golf this year.
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on him? Just from an experienced aspect.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: This weekend not to win, but a top ten for
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: him is something that I am deeply and truly considering.
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I kind of like the way you broke down.
• 26:19
  Speaker 6: I think that he's someone who, at least from what
• 26:22
  Speaker 6: I'm seeing in my sims like, he does sort of
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: lack that top end ceiling, and so I don't know
• 26:26
  Speaker 6: if I would necessarily look at him in the outright market,
• 26:28
  Speaker 6: but I do think that the value on the top
• 26:30
  Speaker 6: ten is still there without having to chase that top
• 26:33
  Speaker 6: one percent finish there for him. Obviously, the major stuff
• 26:36
  Speaker 6: that we've seen T eleven at the US Open, T
• 26:39
  Speaker 6: ten at the PGA you mentioned the experience. Obviously, not
• 26:42
  Speaker 6: many guys have been around as long as Justin Rose,
• 26:44
  Speaker 6: but it's nice to see that he's still playing at
• 26:46
  Speaker 6: a pretty solid level right now. Still question his change
• 26:50
  Speaker 6: in terms of what he's done with his irons. I
• 26:52
  Speaker 6: think that, you know, when you look at the fall
• 26:54
  Speaker 6: up that he's had and in terms of his ball
• 26:56
  Speaker 6: striking right around the time when he changes to the
• 26:59
  Speaker 6: McLaren irons, that's a little bit of a tough choice
• 27:02
  Speaker 6: there for Justin Rose, who was playing at some of
• 27:03
  Speaker 6: the best golf he'd been playing at in his career
• 27:05
  Speaker 6: before that change. But certainly also has the experience of
• 27:09
  Speaker 6: playing on these styles, of course, as being from England
• 27:12
  Speaker 6: and obviously knowing the Link style, so I could definitely
• 27:14
  Speaker 6: get behind the top ten finners there for Rose.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: Is there anybody that you're watching from a long shot
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: perspective this weekend?
• 27:23
  Speaker 6: Yeah, there's a couple of guys that I do have
• 27:24
  Speaker 6: some interest on. I mean, I think Jackson Suber is
• 27:28
  Speaker 6: someone that I still am going to at least consider
• 27:31
  Speaker 6: here this week. Obviously, one of the former top prospects
• 27:34
  Speaker 6: finally gone pro over the last couple of weeks. He
• 27:37
  Speaker 6: sort of made his initial PGA debut as one of
• 27:41
  Speaker 6: the favorites at the Travelers finished T thirty, kind of
• 27:44
  Speaker 6: disappointed a lot of people there, also disappointed at the
• 27:46
  Speaker 6: US Open when he missed the cut, But last time
• 27:49
  Speaker 6: we saw him T six of the John Dear Classic.
• 27:51
  Speaker 6: He's just one of those guys from a talent perspective
• 27:53
  Speaker 6: that I'm going to continue to be on, and especially
• 27:56
  Speaker 6: if the market's not going to sort of travel with
• 27:58
  Speaker 6: that sort of sentiment two hundred and seventy one right now.
• 28:01
  Speaker 6: So that's obviously an extreme long shot. Wouldn't recommend putting
• 28:04
  Speaker 6: a lot of investment there, but he's someone that does
• 28:07
  Speaker 6: pop as a value there at two hundred and seventy
• 28:10
  Speaker 6: to one. Again, I think he's probably someone who I
• 28:12
  Speaker 6: would probably price around the one one hundred and fifty
• 28:14
  Speaker 6: to one range. I guess less long shot, less aggressive
• 28:18
  Speaker 6: long shots. Guys that I do like Aaron Rye I
• 28:21
  Speaker 6: like again and Alex Fitzpatrick, both in this seventy to
• 28:23
  Speaker 6: one range, both guys who I liked last week and
• 28:25
  Speaker 6: they missed the cut. Maybe it's a silver lining when
• 28:28
  Speaker 6: you are interested in the guy and you know this
• 28:30
  Speaker 6: is going to be a spot where the profile this
• 28:32
  Speaker 6: week is fairly similar to last week. The conditions are
• 28:35
  Speaker 6: going to be potentially more difficult with maybe more wind
• 28:38
  Speaker 6: than the forecast. The course in general will be more difficult,
• 28:41
  Speaker 6: but the link style environments, a lot of that stuff
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: does carry over from last week, and Fitzpatrick and Aaron
• 28:46
  Speaker 6: Rye both check a lot of boxes in that range.
• 28:49
  Speaker 6: So those guys are also I guess, less aggressive long shots.
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: I have some interest in this week.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: We'll get back to the golf tournament in a moment,
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: but folks, we buried the lead. Baby Murray is on
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: the way coming up this football season So congratulations is
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: in order for our golf, Major League Baseball, NFL projections,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: and NBA projections. Analyst Kyle Murray so happy for you
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: and your family. Pumped for you, guys. This is a
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: this is a baby making podcast, which is.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: Hilarious because of the one girl on this podcast right
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: now is the only one without a child.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is something that stuck. He's not having to
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: run into as a new father. Are you nervous about
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: running all of these numbers? This is a time consuming
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: job that you have. And also, by the way, spoiler alert,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: so is being a father.
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, definitely a little nervous here.
• 29:43
  Speaker 6: I think my plan is just to get her instantly
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: crunching some numbers, maybe working on some data sets for
• 29:47
  Speaker 6: me right off the bat. I mean, I think that
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: for me, my biggest worry, or I guess anxiety, is
• 29:51
  Speaker 6: that I am no longer to be able to have
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: the word know in my vocabulary.
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: Considering it's a little girl.
• 29:56
  Speaker 6: So just going to be a sucker for the rest
• 29:58
  Speaker 6: of my life, I suppose, but looking forward to it.
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: Well, congrats, and I do want to ask you about
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: someone that's been one of the last major It's in
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: good form. What are your thoughts on Wyndham Clark and
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: how he fits this course and his overall numbers compared
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: to what you're seeing in the market.
• 30:15
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I love Wyndham Clark. This week, He's the top
• 30:17
  Speaker 6: edge for me in the outright market. He's going to
• 30:20
  Speaker 6: be probably the guy at the top of my board
• 30:22
  Speaker 6: this week. He is someone that I do have like
• 30:25
  Speaker 6: maybe feels like we're chasing a little bit, but he's
• 30:27
  Speaker 6: just in such elite form right now, and I still
• 30:30
  Speaker 6: think that considering the way he's been playing obviously, like
• 30:32
  Speaker 6: you mentioned one the US opened, I just don't think
• 30:35
  Speaker 6: that this number is as short as it probably should be.
• 30:38
  Speaker 6: And for me, when I'm betting a guy that's in
• 30:40
  Speaker 6: this elite form that maybe had some struggles in terms
• 30:43
  Speaker 6: of longer form, Like when you look at his overall
• 30:47
  Speaker 6: play over the last the four time frames I'm looking at,
• 30:49
  Speaker 6: which are twelve months, fifty rounds, twenty four rounds, and
• 30:52
  Speaker 6: twelve rounds, he's number one in strokes gained over the
• 30:54
  Speaker 6: last twenty four rounds. He's inside the top twenty still,
• 30:57
  Speaker 6: but all the way down to eighteenth in terms of
• 30:59
  Speaker 6: total strokes gained over the last year. So when you
• 31:01
  Speaker 6: look at that sort of big swing in transition, I
• 31:04
  Speaker 6: do tend to worry about the market value of him
• 31:07
  Speaker 6: of potentially sort of falling off, but the form is
• 31:09
  Speaker 6: so good. I still think that he's someone that fits
• 31:11
  Speaker 6: the course as well. He's in the top fifteen in strokeskin,
• 31:15
  Speaker 6: in the wind, in that open pedigree metric that I mentioned,
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: he's second there, so a lot of good things on
• 31:21
  Speaker 6: paper for Wyndham Clark here. I do think that he
• 31:23
  Speaker 6: profiles as someone that's going to have a lot of
• 31:25
  Speaker 6: volatility in terms of his overall career paths. So I
• 31:28
  Speaker 6: think right now we're catching him in a spot where
• 31:30
  Speaker 6: he's hot, we should follow that form. So yeah, at
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: forty to one, I like window Clark quite a bit
• 31:35
  Speaker 6: this week.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: I think we often get caught, and it makes sense
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: why we're trying to bet on top fives and outrights
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: and matchups. We're looking for guys that are going to
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: excel in these tournaments. But it's almost just as important,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: especially with the bigger names, to look in the other
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: direction who won't win. Do you have a couple of
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: names in mind that you would say most golf fans
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: know who these individ jewels are and you wouldn't touch
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: them with a ton foot pall in the Open.
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's tough.
• 32:05
  Speaker 6: I know I had some luck with this at the
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: US Open, and I was talking about fading Bryce and Chambo.
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: He would be a fade for me once again here.
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: You know, I think that his price is at a
• 32:14
  Speaker 6: point to where people are sort of aware of the
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: struggles that he's had, and he's always been a guy
• 32:18
  Speaker 6: who struggled at the Open. I think the way that
• 32:20
  Speaker 6: he just sort of plays the game where again benefits
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: a lot from the driver, but that's not necessarily a
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: spot where he's going to gain a lot of strokes there,
• 32:28
  Speaker 6: because the field is going to be able to sort
• 32:30
  Speaker 6: of catch up to him with the way that the
• 32:31
  Speaker 6: course plays with wind and all that stuff. So bryceon
• 32:34
  Speaker 6: would be a fade for me here once again. There's
• 32:36
  Speaker 6: a couple of other names that I wouldn't say are
• 32:38
  Speaker 6: necessarily fades, but they're guys that I'm just a little
• 32:41
  Speaker 6: bit lower on than the market. Ludwig Oberg is someone
• 32:45
  Speaker 6: that when you're talking about someone who isn't going to win,
• 32:47
  Speaker 6: he's shown the ability to really lose tournaments in terms
• 32:52
  Speaker 6: of having a lead or being in contention and you know,
• 32:54
  Speaker 6: falling apart on Sundays. That's not something that I really
• 32:57
  Speaker 6: look into a whole lot. Like I think that someone
• 32:59
  Speaker 6: who's able to with themselves in consideration more often than not,
• 33:02
  Speaker 6: but not necessarily win tournaments. I think that's probably you know,
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: saying that's a positive in terms of their golf game.
• 33:08
  Speaker 6: We've seen that with guys like Xander, Tony Finaw back
• 33:11
  Speaker 6: in the day Rory had that discussion, Tommy Fleetwood gets
• 33:14
  Speaker 6: that sort of reputation. But lud Big would be somebody
• 33:17
  Speaker 6: that I would say I would probably bet wouldn't win
• 33:20
  Speaker 6: the tournament. And I'm also lower on him compared to
• 33:23
  Speaker 6: the market. I mentioned Xander earlier, He's a guy that
• 33:26
  Speaker 6: I'm also lower on this week. I mean, it's tough
• 33:29
  Speaker 6: because he's so good in majors, but when you sort
• 33:31
  Speaker 6: of look around what he's done outside of majors, he's
• 33:34
  Speaker 6: had some struggles this week. So he's not a guy
• 33:37
  Speaker 6: who I would bet against this week. He's just someone
• 33:39
  Speaker 6: that I'm lower on, but I have to respect what
• 33:42
  Speaker 6: he's done in majors. That's probably why I would you
• 33:45
  Speaker 6: refuse to bet against him. But someone that I would
• 33:46
  Speaker 6: at least be a little bit colder on.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: One other guy that I wanted to ask you about
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: is as a complete and utter casual. Just when I
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: think about his game, I would just assume that it
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: fits pretty well for this type of golf, in this
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: course in particular. But then looking back at his results
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: at the Open, I think his best finish ever is tenth,
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: and that's Patrick Reed. What are your thoughts on Patrick
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: Reed and how his game fits here and are you
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: showing any value or anything there.
• 34:18
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm right around the market with Red, but I
• 34:20
  Speaker 6: do have him as a top fifteen player in my
• 34:23
  Speaker 6: model ranking this week. I think he's someone like you mentioned,
• 34:27
  Speaker 6: the game should fit pretty well for Patrick Reedy, someone
• 34:29
  Speaker 6: that struggles to gain strokes off the tee, but I
• 34:31
  Speaker 6: think that could be sort of neutralized this week with
• 34:34
  Speaker 6: his ability to be creative with irons or just shorter
• 34:38
  Speaker 6: shots in terms of those off the tee options that
• 34:41
  Speaker 6: he has. And then when you look at his short game,
• 34:44
  Speaker 6: one of the better short game players in the field.
• 34:46
  Speaker 6: This week, he's top thirty in terms of strokes gained
• 34:49
  Speaker 6: in the wind, and he's got some pretty good form
• 34:51
  Speaker 6: as well, played pretty well at the Scottishoke. I think
• 34:53
  Speaker 6: he probably could have even had a better finish there
• 34:56
  Speaker 6: at T thirteen. And I also think it's a positive
• 34:58
  Speaker 6: for him that he's been playing more often on the
• 35:00
  Speaker 6: DEP World Tour.
• 35:01
  Speaker 5: He obviously left Live before a lot of these guys did.
• 35:04
  Speaker 6: Some of these guys are obviously still sort of hanging
• 35:06
  Speaker 6: on by a thread over there, but he was one
• 35:08
  Speaker 6: of the first guys out him and Brooks Kopka, and
• 35:09
  Speaker 6: he was able to actually get some pretty consistent rounds
• 35:12
  Speaker 6: in over there on the DEP World Tour, which isn't
• 35:14
  Speaker 6: always a perfect translation to playing in sort of link
• 35:18
  Speaker 6: style courses, but he does get a little bit more
• 35:20
  Speaker 6: experience doing that, and he's someone that has not been
• 35:22
  Speaker 6: shy to go over there and play in some of
• 35:24
  Speaker 6: these events. So I certainly think that he's got good
• 35:26
  Speaker 6: experience as well. Even though we haven't necessarily Cindy come
• 35:28
  Speaker 6: to Fruition that Opens before.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was definitely surprised to looking back at his results,
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: like he hasn't finished in the top thirty. Yeah, at
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: the Open since twenty nineteen. He missed a cot here
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: in twenty seventeen. But just thinking about I mean, we're
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: talking about small samples, but just thinking about his game.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Kad Kravitz, Well, Yetta, ask about Rory. You can't wrap
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: the conversation before you get to him. He hasn't captured
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: the Cleric Jug since twenty fourteen. What kind of form
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: is he in right now? We're talking about a back
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: to back Masters champion, but it feels like he's playing
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: loose right now given the recent hurdles that he's had
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: to climb. But where is he as far as right
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: now going into this tournament, A guy who should be
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: pretty familiar with the landscape here.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean he's in a pretty good form.
• 36:13
  Speaker 6: I think you would probably be disappointed with what he's
• 36:16
  Speaker 6: sort of, you know, ended up with in terms of
• 36:18
  Speaker 6: his finishing outcomes. But he's top three in terms of
• 36:21
  Speaker 6: total strokes gain over the last twenty four rounds.
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: He's top seven in.
• 36:24
  Speaker 6: Strokes gain Teeda Green, it's been an interesting spot where
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: his approach play has kind of fallen off over the
• 36:30
  Speaker 6: last twelve rounds. He's just seventy eighth in strokes gain
• 36:33
  Speaker 6: out approach in this field, So that's been a spot
• 36:36
  Speaker 6: where he's sort of struggled, and we kind of saw
• 36:38
  Speaker 6: that maybe come to fruition a little bit last week
• 36:40
  Speaker 6: when it was verbalized and sort of articulated through him
• 36:43
  Speaker 6: when he hit a couple of bad iron shots and
• 36:45
  Speaker 6: was visibly frustrated, but still finished T seven at the
• 36:48
  Speaker 6: Scottish Open. Probably could have finished better when you think
• 36:50
  Speaker 6: about his US Open finish. He got off to a
• 36:53
  Speaker 6: great start there and sort of fell off through the weekend.
• 36:55
  Speaker 6: So I would say he's in pretty good form. And
• 36:57
  Speaker 6: again he's someone that has also had success in terms
• 37:00
  Speaker 6: of links style events, so he's someone that I do
• 37:03
  Speaker 6: think is a great option. I think that in terms
• 37:05
  Speaker 6: of arguing his price that's a little bit different. He's
• 37:08
  Speaker 6: sort of in that Scotti range. I would probably rather
• 37:10
  Speaker 6: bet Scotty at the sort of prices that they're at.
• 37:13
  Speaker 6: But in terms of, you know, talking about the form
• 37:15
  Speaker 6: that Rory's in and how he fits for this sort
• 37:17
  Speaker 6: of course, not a lot to say negatively.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: There.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Final question from me, I just want to piggyback on
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: the emphasis of how casual.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: Stucky and I have been through the golf season.
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: But there's a lot of people I've noticed while I
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: was doing research and consuming podcasts and media with just
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: absolute like hatred for people referring it to the British
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Open instead of the Open Now, is that just like
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: contentious like pannies in a wad crap or is there
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: like a reason that people are being so ridiculous about it?
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: Yeah?
• 37:49
  Speaker 6: I mean personally I tend to call it the British
• 37:52
  Speaker 6: Open just because there's so many opens now, so it's
• 37:54
  Speaker 6: like you have the Canadian Open, you have the Scottish Open,
• 37:56
  Speaker 6: you have the US Open. So like when I'm grading
• 38:00
  Speaker 6: or I'm naming everything on my computer in terms of
• 38:02
  Speaker 6: the files, I save all the data as British Open.
• 38:05
  Speaker 6: But for me personally, I don't understand the debate there.
• 38:09
  Speaker 6: I'm sure the maybe the traditionalists over there in England
• 38:13
  Speaker 6: or whatever it may be, they have a stronger opinion
• 38:15
  Speaker 6: on it. But for me, I tend to call it
• 38:17
  Speaker 6: the British Open quite a bit, so I can't really
• 38:20
  Speaker 6: see the argument there, But I definitely have have also
• 38:22
  Speaker 6: seen people get pretty upset about it.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be similarly, I think about it in the
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: in the frame of in France, you wouldn't call it
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: a French fry. It would just be a Fry. I
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: think that's the reason why if it's a lot of
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: British people talking about the Open, they're not going to
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: call it the British Open. It's redundant.
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: So perhaps what do you mean we call it the
• 38:45
  Speaker 5: US Open? Yeah?
• 38:47
  Speaker 6: I think I think the reason that people get upset
• 38:49
  Speaker 6: about it is because like, no, are Open is the Open?
• 38:52
  Speaker 6: Not your US Open? Are Open is the Open? Like
• 38:54
  Speaker 6: this is the Open Championship. I think that's why they
• 38:56
  Speaker 6: get upset.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: But who knows. Tucky's got a point, but we are
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: a bunch of trash bags in this country comparatively.
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: I have one more question.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: I through my research found that they're allowing like TikTokers
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: and YouTubers to.
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: Compete for one spot. Did you do you know about this?
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: And what are your thoughts?
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 39:15
  Speaker 6: So they've been doing a few different interesting things in
• 39:18
  Speaker 6: terms of trying to get more social media driven guys
• 39:22
  Speaker 6: to play. So this uh, this year for the Open,
• 39:24
  Speaker 6: they did a last chance qualifier. I don't even know
• 39:28
  Speaker 6: if it was sort of reinstated after the initial qualifiers
• 39:34
  Speaker 6: because during the actual qualifying process, Wesley Bryant, who was
• 39:38
  Speaker 6: a former PGA Tour winner, his brother George Bryan. Both
• 39:41
  Speaker 6: of them finished like outside the actual qualifying spots, like
• 39:46
  Speaker 6: but within a spot or two or a stroker two
• 39:48
  Speaker 6: in terms of qualifying there. So I actually did want
• 39:50
  Speaker 6: to go back and look and see if they just
• 39:52
  Speaker 6: added that, to see if they could maybe get some
• 39:54
  Speaker 6: more buzz into the field or if it was something
• 39:55
  Speaker 6: that was already you know, in I guess in process
• 39:59
  Speaker 6: before that. But they do like a couple of things
• 40:02
  Speaker 6: on the PGA Tour as well. They have a Myrtle
• 40:04
  Speaker 6: Beach qualifying thing where people who play golf on YouTube
• 40:08
  Speaker 6: they can qualify for the Myrtle Beach Classic, which is interesting,
• 40:12
  Speaker 6: and a lot of guys have been getting sponsor exemptions
• 40:15
  Speaker 6: into PGA Tour events. One of the guys on on
• 40:18
  Speaker 6: YouTube golf played on the Deeper World Tour a couple
• 40:21
  Speaker 6: weeks ago. He's playing at the Rocket Classic in a
• 40:22
  Speaker 6: couple of weeks. So they've been driving a lot of
• 40:25
  Speaker 6: social media and influencing type player players into these events.
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: It's been interesting in some of.
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: These phone rules at courses.
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the phone rules are interesting, for sure.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: Don't quote me on this, but I do think one
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: of the reasons it's also referred to as the Open
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: is because it's open to everyone. So like, if you
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: have a handicap, I think of there's a certain handicap
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: cut off, you can go you're if you're amateur professional,
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: you can go to one of the qualifying events for
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: the British Open.
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the British Openings.
• 40:58
  Speaker 6: Yeah, the British Open in in the US Open, both
• 41:01
  Speaker 6: have like extensive qualifying processes. Like at the US Open
• 41:06
  Speaker 6: there's like three or four different rounds of open qualifiers
• 41:09
  Speaker 6: and so yeah, it is it is pretty open on
• 41:11
  Speaker 6: both sides, uh, to anybody who can. Yeah, there is
• 41:14
  Speaker 6: a certain qualification in terms of handicap. But yeah, we've
• 41:18
  Speaker 6: seen some some very interesting stories of guys who have
• 41:21
  Speaker 6: made it into these events.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: How we get the YouTubers involved? We should do that
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. I want to see that you get
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: like one YouTuber. Ye the first, let's make some cash.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Time to plant the flag for our bet on the
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Open over at Draft Kings It shut.
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: Up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Kyle. You are our guests. You will be a new
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: father here soon. We will start with you, would you have.
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: A girl, dad? Theory on this podcast.
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: Oh I gotta hear this one. Let's hear it.
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: We Well, it's not we, It's just me.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: If somebody in the NFL all becomes the father of
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: a girl, dad, I will bet on them in some capacity,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: either for the coming up season or like, let's say
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: it's someone we didn't know their wife ahead of time
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: was having a girl, but they announced that they're having
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: a girl. I'll bet on them for like in any
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: time or like a sack or something.
• 42:15
  Speaker 5: Okay, I like that.
• 42:16
  Speaker 6: So that means you're gonna you're gonna tail my bet
• 42:18
  Speaker 6: then here right, because I got the good.
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: Judice, all right, I'll log it in the app All right, cool.
• 42:22
  Speaker 6: I'm going to go with Wyndham Clark here for a
• 42:24
  Speaker 6: top ten finish right around four plus four hundred four
• 42:28
  Speaker 6: to one.
• 42:29
  Speaker 5: I think that for me.
• 42:29
  Speaker 6: Obviously I talked about Wyndham Clark quite a bit, but
• 42:32
  Speaker 6: I think the public sentiment on Wyndham Clark is just
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: not catching up in the market. I think there's lots
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: of great things to like about Clark when I'm looking
• 42:39
  Speaker 6: at a lot of stuff. Obviously, it's difficult to be
• 42:42
  Speaker 6: number one in any strokes gained metric because of Scotti,
• 42:45
  Speaker 6: Scheffler and Rory McElroy, window Clark's number one in strokes
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: gained across the board total strokes gained over the last
• 42:50
  Speaker 6: twenty four rounds. So I love Wyndham Clark.
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: This week, Andre off to you.
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: I was hoping you would talk me off one of
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: the two bets that I had into our new but
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: you told me that you liked both of them, and
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: so now I don't know which direction to go. I
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: think because Krabits has a little bit of a longer shot,
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: I'm going to stick with my Fleetwood top ten including
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: ties plus one sixty six final answer.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Fleetwood top ten, adding that to the list. Stucky, what
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: do you got?
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: Well, I'm a perfect two and now this year in golf,
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: I had Henley top ten for the Masters and Burns
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: top twenty on our plant the Flags. I'm going back
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: to the well Henley top twenty, top twenty plus one
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: seventy five back to back top ten finishes here. I
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: think his game fits really well. He's going to hit
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: greens in regulation, iron play putting. I think he'll be
• 43:47
  Speaker 3: near the top and be consistently in Not sure, I'll
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: sprinkle a little bit on him to win it, but
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: I think he's a good bet to finish in the
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: top twenty at the current price.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Sam Burns back at it.
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: I'm not going burns e this week?
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: Who would you have there? Who would I wear? Who
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: did you have? Who is? I missed the name? I
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: need to add it to my list.
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: No, I had burns for No, I'm saying I had
• 44:13
  Speaker 3: burns for the US Open.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, who do you have here?
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: Henley top? Are you listen? You don't even listen? Henley
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: top twenty. I just went to explained why Russell Henley
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: top twenty plus one seventy.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Five in fairness, I was typing and I can't do
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: two things at once. I have Chris got Her up
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: top five. This guy has been locked in for a
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: year now. One the Scottish Open last year, finished eleventh
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: this year, finished third in the Open last year. So
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: I also heard that he's a big, uncrustable guys. It's
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: like taking peds on the golf course, guys, so.
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Lock it in.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: My last golfer finished sixty fifth, so keep that in mind.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Top five plus five twenty thirty to one. Sprinkle on
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: him winning. I'll probably have some top ten. We're gonna
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: layer this, We're gonna We're gonna do the ladder on
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: on Chris Gottter up. So we've got Stucky Russell Henley
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: top twenty, Tommy Fleetwood top ten, plus one sixty six
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: for Kendra Wyndham Clark top ten plus four hundred for
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: the New Girl Dad, and Kyle Murray. You can get
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: all of those over Undraft Kings where the Crown is yours. Kyle,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Congratulations once again, we
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: will chat soon. I'm sure of it.
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: Appreciate it.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: That'll do it for today's episode, The Favorites. We'll return
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. Right here on the Action Network YouTube page
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: and wherever you download your favorite podcast. Our show today
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: has been presented by Draft Kings. The Crown is yours.
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 45:55
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• 45:58
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• 46:01
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