Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Ethereum Triggers Alt-Season?📈Technical Analysis w/ Evan Aldo
Transcript
- 0:06Speaker 1: We're seeing a trigger for all time highs starting to
- 0:08Speaker 1: wade into ethereum after a bitcoin boom. Today, we'll break
- 0:12Speaker 1: it down for you. My name is Paul Barron. Welcome
- 0:14Speaker 1: back into the show. Let's get into it. I do
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- 0:56Speaker 1: All right, I want to bring in the master himself,
- 0:59Speaker 1: the man who called this boom for mister evan Alda,
- 1:05Speaker 1: how are you doing.
- 1:07Speaker 3: Fantastic, Paul, great to be on thank someone.
- 1:09Speaker 1: Yeah, nice seeing you. Hey, we've got we got to
- 1:11Speaker 1: show you channel off here evan Aldough right there on YouTube.
- 1:16Speaker 1: You'll be able to find him. Let's get this guy
- 1:18Speaker 1: over twenty thousand subs. We have got to do it,
- 1:22Speaker 1: so hit the subscribe button if you're not already won
- 1:26Speaker 1: right now, help him out right there. If you will
- 1:29Speaker 1: see he's calling him for a thirty two hundred dollars ethereum.
- 1:32Speaker 1: And if you go over here to his videos, he
- 1:35Speaker 1: had this back nine days ago saying.
- 1:38Speaker 2: Guess what the case for a bullish July? I like
- 1:42Speaker 2: that one.
- 1:42Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about all that, Evan. Let's
- 1:45Speaker 1: go over to this tweet right here. Kobec kind of
- 1:48Speaker 1: hitting up a course bitcoint up sixty three months USD
- 1:52Speaker 1: seems like it's a bit broken. We'll look at the
- 1:54Speaker 1: Dixie gold prices rising, Treasury yields are looking like they're
- 1:59Speaker 1: rising around deficit spending. This is an issue that is
- 2:03Speaker 1: really going to put a lot on the plate of
- 2:05Speaker 1: risk assets. And I think this is all going forward
- 2:09Speaker 1: outside of the shorts being liquidated Evan, was there anything
- 2:14Speaker 1: that you feel was this is the catalyst of what's
- 2:18Speaker 1: driving bitcoin right now?
- 2:21Speaker 3: Oh man, I think it's just where we are kind
- 2:24Speaker 3: of in the cycle, in the anticipation of rate cuts
- 2:27Speaker 3: and just kind of you know, from a technical perspective,
- 2:29Speaker 3: it just looked good. You had rare bullish signs on
- 2:32Speaker 3: ethereum on the monthly chart, rare bullish signs all over
- 2:35Speaker 3: and good for continuation. So you know, I think that
- 2:39Speaker 3: June would have been more like this if you didn't
- 2:40Speaker 3: have Iran. So this is kind of just a delayed
- 2:42Speaker 3: version of what June should have been.
- 2:43Speaker 2: I think interesting.
- 2:46Speaker 1: I'm still in the camp that this is not necessarily
- 2:49Speaker 1: the same as cycles in the past, but I look
- 2:51Speaker 1: at one of the key indicators right here. This is
- 2:54Speaker 1: the influence factor for me, and that is these ETFs.
- 2:57Speaker 1: You know, now we're seeing record levels. I think black
- 3:01Speaker 1: Rock hit a level. I think I've got a tweet
- 3:03Speaker 1: on it, a level that they've never achieved in the
- 3:05Speaker 1: short period of time in which the CTF has been launched.
- 3:08Speaker 2: In of course, you saw right here.
- 3:10Speaker 1: The key here with an ETF like ibit is that
- 3:14Speaker 1: it is a signal post, a soundboard to the rest
- 3:18Speaker 1: of the industry, including remember a lot of these finance
- 3:22Speaker 1: managers and money managers that are now I'm getting phone
- 3:26Speaker 1: calls from them, you know, that are saying, you know,
- 3:28Speaker 1: we're looking at bitcoin a little bit stronger. They're not
- 3:31Speaker 1: asking when to buy, They're asking for how much allocation,
- 3:34Speaker 1: you know, should they put in. That is a big
- 3:36Speaker 1: signal going forward. And of course you look at this
- 3:40Speaker 1: right here, bitcoin up fifty five percent since April, hitting
- 3:42Speaker 1: a record and the Dixie down. When you look at
- 3:45Speaker 1: your chart on bitcoin, are we going to see a
- 3:51Speaker 1: retracement after this one eighteen or do you feel like
- 3:53Speaker 1: this is just going to be a continuation into this run?
- 3:57Speaker 3: So I think we got at least a little bit
- 3:59Speaker 3: more before where we see I mean, the closest place
- 4:02Speaker 3: to right now that I would see a rejection is
- 4:04Speaker 3: probably around your one twenty, which would be right here
- 4:07Speaker 3: we're approaching it. I don't have anything too extremely strong
- 4:10Speaker 3: at win eighteen. Yeah, we're deally dowing a little bit,
- 4:13Speaker 3: a little bit of consolidation, but I think inevitably you
- 4:15Speaker 3: should get up to that one twenty one twenty two
- 4:17Speaker 3: area within the next few weeks. I would say the
- 4:21Speaker 3: highest that I would see us going would be probably
- 4:24Speaker 3: mid August up to one thirty. But what I'm kind
- 4:27Speaker 3: of thinking here could be wrong, but I'm kind of
- 4:29Speaker 3: thinking here is you may see a little bit of
- 4:31Speaker 3: slow move upward while you see a lot of action
- 4:35Speaker 3: from ethereum it alts that outperform, especially your Solana that
- 4:38Speaker 3: will talk about a lot of these alts probably outperform
- 4:41Speaker 3: Bitcoin into the end of the year for the next
- 4:43Speaker 3: you know, five six months here, So I think you
- 4:46Speaker 3: may see some consolidation here. High end for July would
- 4:49Speaker 3: be one thirty. Kind of low end would be that
- 4:51Speaker 3: one twenty to one twenty two marks.
- 4:53Speaker 1: So yeah, if that is the case, then you have
- 4:56Speaker 1: to look at dominance real quick, because bitcoin dominance, if
- 4:59Speaker 1: you go over here on the four hour, you know,
- 5:01Speaker 1: it clipped up right there. What was that the June
- 5:05Speaker 1: twenty fifth, June twenty sixth right there, what was that
- 5:09Speaker 1: sixty five point nine to one percent? And of course
- 5:13Speaker 1: now it's down at sixty four.
- 5:14Speaker 2: So what do you think. I'll go to the daily
- 5:17Speaker 2: chart here.
- 5:17Speaker 1: What do you think about this Bitcoin dominance a little
- 5:20Speaker 1: bit of this trend down?
- 5:22Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?
- 5:23Speaker 3: It's very good for alts it's what we're expecting. And all,
- 5:26Speaker 3: you know, if we look at our bitcoin dominance char
- 5:29Speaker 3: right here, it looks some rare bearer signs right here.
- 5:31Speaker 3: Let me just get it up here, and you know
- 5:33Speaker 3: you're coming down quite a bit, and you look at
- 5:36Speaker 3: just previous cycles right here, the last time it happened.
- 5:38Speaker 3: I mean, we're obviously quite a bit delayed from January
- 5:41Speaker 3: twenty one in the first cycle, but forty seven percent
- 5:43Speaker 3: dropped down. I think we should be able to drop
- 5:45Speaker 3: down at least twenty seven percent into the end of
- 5:48Speaker 3: the year for a nice all cooin season. So I
- 5:50Speaker 3: think generally alts should out perform Bitcoin into the end
- 5:54Speaker 3: of the year. I think that Ethereum will outperform most
- 5:57Speaker 3: alts for the next couple of months. But when you
- 5:58Speaker 3: see that, when you see those X rate cuts, that'll
- 6:02Speaker 3: really be the catalyst here. So you know, it looks
- 6:04Speaker 3: really bearish overall, very overheated, very bearish right now.
- 6:08Speaker 2: I like it.
- 6:09Speaker 1: Well, you know, I think the point here is, you know,
- 6:11Speaker 1: managing these cycles like and it's not I won't say cycles.
- 6:15Speaker 2: You know, you're you're looking at a lot.
- 6:17Speaker 1: Of the narratives that are driving much of the market
- 6:20Speaker 1: obviously we see the macro side of things. We're seeing
- 6:23Speaker 1: what's happening in the markets in general at the S
- 6:25Speaker 1: and P, which is after its.
- 6:27Speaker 2: All time high yesterday.
- 6:29Speaker 1: Plus you have you know, I BIT doing these kind
- 6:31Speaker 1: of numbers, which is crazy that I mentioned this earlier
- 6:34Speaker 1: eighty billion mark last night. This is the fastest ETF
- 6:37Speaker 1: to get there in three hundred and seventy four d s,
- 6:39Speaker 1: the fastest ETF that's of all ETFs out there. So
- 6:44Speaker 1: that goes back to my point of a signaler for
- 6:47Speaker 1: the market to kind of release the krack and so
- 6:50Speaker 1: to speak of a lot of these you know, these
- 6:53Speaker 1: investors that have maybe been sitting on the sideline because
- 6:55Speaker 1: there's a lot of money market money out.
- 6:57Speaker 2: There for sure.
- 6:59Speaker 1: All right, well, we got to talk about ETH and
- 7:01Speaker 1: ETH holding its own after a couple of three days
- 7:04Speaker 1: of nice positive inflows on the ETHTF.
- 7:08Speaker 2: When you look at the ETHTF.
- 7:11Speaker 1: And you also follow along with crypto week happening, the
- 7:14Speaker 1: Clarity Act is most likely coming in at least to
- 7:17Speaker 1: a discussion next week, the likelihood of getting Genius Act
- 7:21Speaker 1: through next week, that's going to be a stable coin.
- 7:23Speaker 1: And then of course you've got Blackrock just buying more
- 7:26Speaker 1: eth than Bitcoin. All of this getting interesting, Evan. All
- 7:30Speaker 1: of this timing is perfect for ethereum. So tell me
- 7:34Speaker 1: about ethereum on the chart.
- 7:36Speaker 3: Well, I think it's Eth season, and you know, let's
- 7:38Speaker 3: pull up the chart right here, and when we look
- 7:41Speaker 3: at that, you know it's kind up to etherorom right here.
- 7:43Speaker 3: So a little bit of consolidation where we're hitting right now.
- 7:45Speaker 3: I don't think it's going to be too much of
- 7:46Speaker 3: a problem breaking above three thousand. I think you're going
- 7:49Speaker 3: to do some of this continuation like you saw were
- 7:51Speaker 3: here and then you do the same thing here. You
- 7:53Speaker 3: probably repeat something like this break up ord our next
- 7:56Speaker 3: big point history two under it. You can get there
- 7:59Speaker 3: some early is tomorrow is late as the end of
- 8:01Speaker 3: the month. It's hard to exactly say, but I do
- 8:03Speaker 3: think that I would have remained more optimistic because you
- 8:06Speaker 3: got this monthly rare bullish sign right here, a little
- 8:09Speaker 3: sugar wave. The last time we had that happen excuse me,
- 8:13Speaker 3: the last time that we had that happen here, we
- 8:15Speaker 3: had a giant kind of jump up. So if you're
- 8:17Speaker 3: comparing it like that, that's enough to get us up
- 8:20Speaker 3: to almost six thousand. So you're looking at hopefully a
- 8:23Speaker 3: new all time high easily by end a year, and
- 8:26Speaker 3: then you know, just a few months or so. You know,
- 8:28Speaker 3: in terms of what I think would happen with this market,
- 8:30Speaker 3: you're gonna keep coming up for most of this month.
- 8:33Speaker 3: My high for the month into early August would be
- 8:37Speaker 3: four thousand. I know that's high. I don't know if
- 8:38Speaker 3: we're going to get there. But then after that, I
- 8:40Speaker 3: think you're going to see a little bit of a
- 8:42Speaker 3: sell off in anticipation of the next kind of great
- 8:44Speaker 3: cut around maybe end of August, sometimes September, you know,
- 8:47Speaker 3: some type of pullback, get everybody afraid again, and your
- 8:50Speaker 3: last rally upward kind of in in quarter four into
- 8:53Speaker 3: the end of the year, hopefully to my target of
- 8:56Speaker 3: seventy three hundred dollars, which I'm really really excited about here.
- 9:00Speaker 1: All right, so end of your target around seventy three hundred.
- 9:04Speaker 1: I want to and I'm going to ask you about
- 9:05Speaker 1: Ethan a second of whether or not you'd buy around
- 9:08Speaker 1: this three thousand dollars mark right now. But before I
- 9:10Speaker 1: do that, I want to play a clip from Tom
- 9:12Speaker 1: Lee because he's talking about treasury stocks versus ETHTFS listen it.
- 9:17Speaker 4: When someone buys an etheroreum ETF, they're buying a single
- 9:20Speaker 4: unit of ethereum, and for as long as they hold
- 9:23Speaker 4: at ETF, that amount of quantity of ethereum is going
- 9:26Speaker 4: to be basically fixed. Whereas an ethereum treasury stock actually
- 9:30Speaker 4: has a lot more optionality to increase the ethereum help for.
- 9:34Speaker 1: Share fascinating or even I would say probably than buying
- 9:37Speaker 1: ethereum directly.
- 9:38Speaker 4: Correct, that's right, You're letting an entity then try to
- 9:42Speaker 4: help you acquire more ethereum. And again, as these etherorem
- 9:45Speaker 4: treasury strategies get to become large parts of the ethereum network,
- 9:48Speaker 4: they're actually helping the ecosystem. I think ethereum has a
- 9:53Speaker 4: Wall Street put because as the Goldman's and the JP
- 9:57Speaker 4: Morgans want to be big in the stable coin market,
- 10:00Speaker 4: he still going to want to make sure that the
- 10:01Speaker 4: underlying layer one is super secure. So as a public chain,
- 10:05Speaker 4: they're going to want to own a large stake in etherium.
- 10:08Speaker 4: So the ethereum treasury strategies have what I call a
- 10:11Speaker 4: Wall Street put because they're basically moving in front of
- 10:14Speaker 4: what Wall Street probably ends up doing.
- 10:17Speaker 1: All right, So a couple of points within that that
- 10:19Speaker 1: you have to look at. And when he's talking about
- 10:22Speaker 1: the ETFs versus these Wall Street stocks that are essentially
- 10:26Speaker 1: treasuries out there, you look at s BET right here.
- 10:29Speaker 1: This is one with Joseph Lubin. With that being the case,
- 10:33Speaker 1: I want to throw a curveball at you. Pull up
- 10:36Speaker 1: the s BET chart and apply your tools onto that
- 10:40Speaker 1: chart and tell me what you think could happen here.
- 10:45Speaker 3: So right now, I think you've got a good shot
- 10:48Speaker 3: of probably continuing forward and getting back to this pocket
- 10:51Speaker 3: between thirty eight to forty seven right here. That could
- 10:55Speaker 3: be kind of your high for the month or high
- 10:57Speaker 3: for August. Then you may see a reject a little
- 11:00Speaker 3: bit of fear or something like this, and then hopefully
- 11:04Speaker 3: into the end of the year and all that you
- 11:06Speaker 3: can potentially get to the seven. I mean, it's tough
- 11:09Speaker 3: to say because there's so much volatility. I would say,
- 11:11Speaker 3: I mean, the next big point if you can break
- 11:14Speaker 3: above this high at one twenty five, would be two hundred.
- 11:16Speaker 3: But you know, from where you are right now, that's
- 11:18Speaker 3: six hundred percent. I mean, it's not possible to do
- 11:21Speaker 3: that much, But keep in mind that's like the best
- 11:23Speaker 3: case scenario. It is speculative, but yeah, if you want
- 11:26Speaker 3: to use leverage, you know, have at it. You know
- 11:27Speaker 3: you could use leverage and buy eth on your own
- 11:29Speaker 3: and kind of replicate what they're doing here as well.
- 11:31Speaker 1: So just well looking, you got to look at Sharpling Gaming.
- 11:34Speaker 1: They announced that they entered into an agreement with the
- 11:37Speaker 1: eh Foundation.
- 11:38Speaker 2: Basically this was to purchase.
- 11:40Speaker 1: Another ten thousand eighth was so another twenty five mil right.
- 11:43Speaker 2: There, and they did it on chain, so on the MAINTENECE.
- 11:46Speaker 1: So that's good for validators obviously for those earning fees.
- 11:49Speaker 1: So it's good to support the ecosystem the way they
- 11:52Speaker 1: did it. Salana, these revenues are making me Thursday totally's
- 11:57Speaker 1: in here kind of you know, stopping it up a
- 12:01Speaker 1: little bit. Salonas passes ethereum ntron on revenue in Q two,
- 12:04Speaker 1: which is good for Soul, which is why it's really
- 12:07Speaker 1: moving well on the chart for Solana right now, what
- 12:11Speaker 1: is your opinion? Do you like this one to stop
- 12:14Speaker 1: in this one to sixty range or do you think
- 12:15Speaker 1: we're going to skyrocket into two hundred?
- 12:18Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean we should keep going at least
- 12:20Speaker 3: a little bit more. Let's take a look at Slana
- 12:22Speaker 3: right here, So yeah, one sixty, I mean the next
- 12:24Speaker 3: big place is going to be one eighty eight. You
- 12:26Speaker 3: got your money flow looking pretty good. I think it's
- 12:28Speaker 3: a pretty pretty done deal for one eighty eight. By
- 12:31Speaker 3: the end of the month, you could even get like
- 12:33Speaker 3: if you follow this trajectory upward, I mean, best case
- 12:35Speaker 3: scenario into August would be maybe that two forty all
- 12:38Speaker 3: the way up to two sixty five. So potentially you
- 12:42Speaker 3: could see a lot I mean, there's a lot of
- 12:43Speaker 3: coins that really could jump up quicker than many may think.
- 12:46Speaker 3: So by mid August the high point, I can think
- 12:49Speaker 3: two fifty, two sixty, I would guess you'd see a
- 12:51Speaker 3: little retracement something from their bit of a rejection from
- 12:54Speaker 3: there and then into your end a year or something,
- 12:57Speaker 3: hopefully four hundred. My high point means at six fifty,
- 13:00Speaker 3: but that's to be seen. The goal is at least
- 13:03Speaker 3: the goal is four hundred for the end of the year.
- 13:05Speaker 3: Major target would be for.
- 13:06Speaker 2: So for four hundred by end of year.
- 13:09Speaker 1: If you look at the bitcoin Solana chart, this is
- 13:13Speaker 1: it seems to be painting out. Let's say, yeah, soule
- 13:17Speaker 1: BTC starting to trend up right here. Do you think
- 13:20Speaker 1: this holds right now the way it looks based on
- 13:22Speaker 1: what you're seeing on bitcoin, I.
- 13:25Speaker 3: Think it probably holds. I think Solana should outperform Bitcoin.
- 13:28Speaker 3: I think that Solona can bleed a bit against the
- 13:31Speaker 3: theoreum though for the next few months. But I think
- 13:35Speaker 3: most most good altsho uperform Bitcoin, but most all good
- 13:38Speaker 3: alts will still underperform e theorem for the next few
- 13:41Speaker 3: months in my opinion.
- 13:42Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Well, let's talk about another alt and
- 13:45Speaker 1: that is Avalanche. Avalanche had some one growth, just a
- 13:49Speaker 1: little bit of a slip right here that seems to
- 13:51Speaker 1: be moving, but active addresses are going up is significantly.
- 13:55Speaker 1: What does that look like on your chart? I know
- 13:58Speaker 1: Avalanche has been one of those that has been aging
- 14:00Speaker 1: a bit in terms of performance. I know you're a
- 14:02Speaker 1: big AVAX fan, So tell me.
- 14:06Speaker 3: It looks like it should with cautious optimism recover right here.
- 14:11Speaker 3: So the year's one of the potential trades that I
- 14:13Speaker 3: like two to one ersquore ratio. If you get a
- 14:15Speaker 3: stop loss around fifteen dollars, that would be a pretty
- 14:18Speaker 3: good place because if you break upward from this area,
- 14:21Speaker 3: this double bottom area, and we made a higher low,
- 14:23Speaker 3: which is good. Then your target is at forty two dollars.
- 14:27Speaker 3: You can hit that sometime, maybe even in September October,
- 14:32Speaker 3: you know, I think September's going to be more of
- 14:34Speaker 3: the barishment up to proy October getting up to that point,
- 14:36Speaker 3: and hopefully into the end of this month or early
- 14:39Speaker 3: August getting back up to thirty two dollars, which would
- 14:42Speaker 3: be pretty good. The main trajectory I think you would
- 14:44Speaker 3: do into the end of the year is hopefully sixty
- 14:46Speaker 3: two dollars. If all goes well, hopefully you can get
- 14:50Speaker 3: up to that one hundred dollars mark and get a
- 14:51Speaker 3: five X. I mean, it's not impossible to go higher
- 14:54Speaker 3: than that, but unfortunately, I kind of don't think we're
- 14:56Speaker 3: going to make a new all time high for this
- 14:58Speaker 3: this year, but we can get up too somewhere and
- 15:01Speaker 3: say it.
- 15:02Speaker 1: Well, a few things happening there with the ecosystem. One
- 15:06Speaker 1: of course, is the black hole black Hole decks launched.
- 15:10Speaker 1: This is out there which is running and in the
- 15:12Speaker 1: ecosystem for avalanche, so that could also drive some activity
- 15:18Speaker 1: around it. And I think when you look at AVAX
- 15:20Speaker 1: in general, they have I don't know, I'm not saying
- 15:23Speaker 1: they've lost their way. But I haven't seen the amount
- 15:25Speaker 1: of releases of new partnerships, you know, just a lot
- 15:29Speaker 1: of new innovation. They used to be a news engine
- 15:32Speaker 1: of just deals and deals and deals coming in. Maybe
- 15:35Speaker 1: they got some stuff brewing that could be percolating here soon,
- 15:38Speaker 1: and I hope so for them.
- 15:41Speaker 2: I want to get in.
- 15:42Speaker 1: Yeah, when you look at the act right now, if
- 15:44Speaker 1: you're playing blue chip alts, you know, we've looked at Ethereum, Salona,
- 15:48Speaker 1: and Avalanche. Let's just use those as an example. Which
- 15:52Speaker 1: one would you play right now? Because there's a lot
- 15:54Speaker 1: of people that have not invested in crypto yet and
- 15:57Speaker 1: now they're starting to think about it. Of those three,
- 16:00Speaker 1: let's take a ten thousand dollars portfolio and divvy that out.
- 16:04Speaker 2: What would you do.
- 16:07Speaker 3: Right now? I think you want to go pray seventy
- 16:09Speaker 3: percent Eth and then fifteen fifteen on Salon.
- 16:13Speaker 2: Sobas I think, hey, Bax.
- 16:15Speaker 3: I think Eth will out perform both of them for
- 16:17Speaker 3: a few more months, but then both of them will
- 16:19Speaker 3: probably out for ethan quarter four.
- 16:21Speaker 1: So quarter four. There you go, guys. That's that's kind
- 16:24Speaker 1: of a rundown for you. Hopefully this is going to
- 16:26Speaker 1: give you guys some insights of how to trade these
- 16:28Speaker 1: markets and look for updates. Don't forget to hit Evan's
- 16:31Speaker 1: channel on your way out again. Just Evan Aldo over
- 16:34Speaker 1: on YouTube right there. It was good seeing you. Thanks
- 16:38Speaker 1: again for stopping in and we appreciate it.
- 16:40Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks so much, Paul always and honor you bet.
- 16:43Speaker 1: All right, you guys, if you're not in the diamond circle,
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